Phillies sign Papelbon

[FredLynn]

Papelbon ages 24-26: 1.62 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 291 ERA+, 0.7 HR/9.

 

Bard ages 24-26: 2.88 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 154 ERA+, 0.7 HR/9.

 

Not even close. However, the difference in performance doesn't justify the 30 million difference between Papelbon's salary and Bard's (and a couple of relievers') salary during the length of his contract.

 

For the first five months of this season Bard was a superior pitcher to Papelbon. I posted those stats on this forum earlier. He deserves a chance to close games. Maybe it won't work out for him, but he certainly deserves a chance. I think he will do fine. When he has his FB and slider both working he is much more dominant than Papelbon.

As for Paps signing with Philly, good luck to him. There is no way I think the Sox should have matched the offer he received, even if they were given a chance to do so. In fact, unless the Sox can steal someone, I don't think this is the time for ANY long term deals. Its a rebuilding year; time to clean house and wipe out some of the money already on the books in hopes of competing in 2013 or the year after that.

[User Name]

When i posted the stats, i wasn't saying that they shouldn't give Bard the chance to close. I meant that Papelbon was superior statistically to Bard during their 24-26 ages, but not to the point where it warranted giving all that money to Papelbon.

[Palodios]

They think that Papelbon is the best closer available and projected in the game for at least the next 3-4 years. They said that Philli got the next closer who could likely be around Mo's numbers since he is gonna face weaker offenses in the NL

 

I disagree with this. Closers almost never throw to pitchers, and NL teams usually have deeper benches to pinch hit. Save percentage by league is roughly the same every year.

[Palodios]

When i posted the stats' date=' i wasn't saying that they shouldn't give Bard the chance to close. I meant that Papelbon was superior statistically to Bard during their 24-26 ages, but not to the point where it warranted giving all that money to Papelbon.[/quote']

 

Compare Bard's last three years to Papelbon's last three years. They're quite similar.

[User Name]

Compare Bard's last three years to Papelbon's last three years. They're quite similar.

 

But you already did that (it's in your sig). I made the 24-26 age comparison because of Yazman's post.

[FredLynn]

When i posted the stats' date=' i wasn't saying that they shouldn't give Bard the chance to close. I meant that Papelbon was superior statistically to Bard during their 24-26 ages, but not to the point where it warranted giving all that money to Papelbon.[/quote']

 

Got it.

Baseball is so much of a "what have you done for me lately" game that I would rather compare more current stats, such as Paladios has laid out and this year's stats, than the age-related stats you posted. Until he got burned out this year by overuse (Francona really had no other options that were good for late relief but Bard and Aceves) he was BETTER than Papelbon.

[Palodios]

But you already did that (it's in your sig). I made the 24-26 age comparison because of Yazman's post.

 

I compared Papelbon's to Papelbon's. I was referring to Bard's last three and Papelbon's last three, in case anyone missed that.

[iortiz]

I disagree with this. Closers almost never throw to pitchers' date=' and NL teams usually have deeper benches to pinch hit. Save percentage by league is roughly the same every year.[/quote']

 

They meant AL East offenses > NL East offenses.

[Palodios]

They meant AL East offenses > NL East offenses.

 

I know what you meant. But without the advantage of the DH, the AL is roughly the same as the NL.

[User Name]

I compared Papelbon's to Papelbon's. I was referring to Bard's last three and Papelbon's last three' date=' in case anyone missed that.[/quote']

 

Oooh, i was pretty sure it was Bard to Pap. Comparison coming right up.

 

Bard 2009-2011: 2.88 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 154 ERA+, 0.7 HR/9.

 

Papelbon 2009-2011: 2.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 154 ERA+, 0.7 HR/9

[iortiz]

I know what you meant. But without the advantage of the DH' date=' the AL is roughly the same as the NL.[/quote']

 

Well, they were who said not me

 

Tough, Still I'd prefer to close against NL East teams than AL East teams anyday.

[jacksonianmarch]

The point, though, is that you had both. This wasn't an either or.

[iortiz]

IMO closer's numbers value >>> mid relievers/setup's numbers value

 

I think that Bard has the stuff (mechanics, velocity, repertory, etc). What they need to work with him, is his mind; that gentlemen, is even harder to work with. That's why closers are so special. Jump from a Setup spot to closer spot is not trivial. You have to handle a lot of pressure. If they make Bard the everyday closer, they must work with his mind. Once the pressure got you, it's hard to comeback, mostly in the last inning.

[Palodios]

The point' date=' though, is that you had both. This wasn't an either or.[/quote']

 

When you ask "who will replace Papelbon" there is a simple answer. I'm just surprised no one is asking "who will replace Bard"

[iortiz]

When you ask "who will replace Papelbon" there is a simple answer. I'm just surprised no one is asking "who will replace Bard"

 

That is called collateral damage.

[iortiz]

As Jacko said, we had both! Dammit.

 

IMO both very good relievers at their spots and as competitive as Soriano and Rivera dynamic duo.

[a700hitter]

When you ask "who will replace Papelbon" there is a simple answer. I'm just surprised no one is asking "who will replace Bard"

I've asked that about 10 times. If Bard steps in and is as good as Papelbon, we no longer lock down the 8th and 9th inning as we have in the past.

[iortiz]

I've asked that about 10 times. If Bard steps in and is as good as Papelbon' date=' we no longer lock down the 8th and 9th inning as we have in the past.[/quote']

 

If they bring a couple of SPs (unlikely), Ace can take the job. But again, who is gonna be the innings-eater?. Collateral damage.

 

We already had our dynamic duo. It is not easy to set up an elite one (Set up-Closer) and ours, was an elite one.

[a700hitter]

If they bring a couple of SPs (unlikely), Ace can take the job. But again, who is gonna be the innings-eater?. Collateral damage.

 

We already had our dynamic duo. It is not easy to set up an elite one (Set up-Closer) and ours, was an elite one.

I like Aceves. He is very effective, but he is not a lock down guy like Bard who can come into a tough situation and blow away the middle of the order of the opposition.

[Palodios]

I've asked that about 10 times. If Bard steps in and is as good as Papelbon' date=' we no longer lock down the 8th and 9th inning as we have in the past.[/quote']

 

Generally, any possible scenario that could go wrong... you usually see it coming a mile away. I'm referring to the rest of the population here.

[iortiz]

I like Aceves. He is very effective' date=' but he is not a lock down guy like Bard who can come into a tough situation and blow away the middle of the order of the opposition.[/quote']

 

IMO I think that both are not prepared for the positions, Bard as the closer and Ace as the set up whether it was the case.

 

Hopefully they work with his mind, as I said, it is what they need to work with.

[jung]

I tend to think the Sox will be stuck making Aceves a #5 SP and bring somebody in as a set up man for Bard. SP is harder to find than relievers. They may have gotten incredibly lucky if Aceves can move into that #5 hole. Hence they have little choice but to explore that option. The only way to do that is to plan for it and prepare in ST. You just can't decide to give Aceves his shot at starting by springing it on him some time in May or June.

[Elktonnick]

Really, he wanted to go to a bigger market. Really?

 

Boston is ranked 5th

 

Philly is 4th

 

Not really much of a jump.

 

still bigger! and you didn't dispute the other points. Just saying that while I blame the FO for being screwed up can't blame them for Paps leaving when he clearly wanted to leave.

[FredLynn]

I tend to think the Sox will be stuck making Aceves a #5 SP and bring somebody in as a set up man for Bard. SP is harder to find than relievers. They may have gotten incredibly lucky if Aceves can move into that #5 hole. Hence they have little choice but to explore that option. The only way to do that is to plan for it and prepare in ST. You just can't decide to give Aceves his shot at starting by springing it on him some time in May or June.

 

I read that somewhere: that Aceves has been told to report to camp ready to be a SP next year. Cannot cite a link, but it makes sense. He wants to start. Can he really be worse than who we have now as a #4?

[jung]

Both of our #4's are on operating tables so we really don't have one yet. But I don't think Aceves can be considered higher than #5 because the 5 gets fewer innings and I think that is what they should expect from Aceves.

[iortiz]

I read that somewhere: that Aceves has been told to report to camp ready to be a SP next year. Cannot cite a link' date=' but it makes sense. He wants to start. [b']Can he really be worse than who we have now as a #4?[/b]

 

I couldn't say who is our current 4th SP... So I guess he is definitely better

[iortiz]

Both of our #4's are on operating tables so we really don't have one yet. But I don't think Aceves can be considered higher than #5 because the 5 gets fewer innings and I think that is what they should expect from Aceves.

 

I would bring a couple of SPs (4,5) and I would make Aceves one of our a lot mentioned and needed pitching depth arms.

[NativeBostonian]

I read that somewhere: that Aceves has been told to report to camp ready to be a SP next year. Cannot cite a link' date=' but it makes sense. He wants to start. Can he really be worse than who we have now as a #4?[/quote']

 

I would either put him as a starter, or a setup man for Bard.

[seabeachfred]

I read somewhere on a sports blog that the Pirates closer Hanrahan might be available in a trade. Whether that rumor has any legs I have no idea but I do not completely trust Bard in that role. He has been a very good set-up man in the 8th inning and I would prefer to keep him there for the time being. Of course we need two or three more relievers so we don't find ourselves short in that area, and this time we have to get it right and get some firemen who can be effective and not like some of the duds Epstein foisted on us. To me that would mean Aceves would be No. 5 in the rotation and we'd still need a No. 4 through free agency or another trade.

 

Too bad some of Epstein's "prize" prospects like Bowden, Anderson and others have turned out to be duds and won't bring much in the way in any trade.

[a700hitter]

I read somewhere on a sports blog that the Pirates closer Hanrahan might be available in a trade. Whether that rumor has any legs I have no idea but I do not completely trust Bard in that role. He has been a very good set-up man in the 8th inning and I would prefer to keep him there for the time being. Of course we need two or three more relievers so we don't find ourselves short in that area, and this time we have to get it right and get some firemen who can be effective and not like some of the duds Epstein foisted on us. To me that would mean Aceves would be No. 5 in the rotation and we'd still need a No. 4 through free agency or another trade.

 

Too bad some of Epstein's "prize" prospects like Bowden, Anderson and others have turned out to be duds and won't bring much in the way in any trade.

Those were a couple of futures that could have been sacrificed for trading deadline acquisitions in past years. Their futures never came.