Ben Cherington

[FredLynn]

By now you know that I don't need others to agree with me. Being right is enough.

 

"Its good to be da King"

 

Mel Brooks

[a700hitter]

What is wrong with debating this issue. He isn't even off our payroll yet. This will be an subject of discussion for months' date=' maybe longer.[/quote']True, but a few years might be needed for an appropriate perspective of his legacy. We should probably wait to ee how his last few draft classes pan out.

[FredLynn]

True' date=' but a few years might be needed for an appropriate perspective of his legacy. We should probably wait to ee how his last few draft classes pan out.[/quote']

 

No doubt he will be talked about in those terms for years. Its a legitimate thing to discuss right now too. He is still our GM.

[a700hitter]

No doubt he will be talked about in those terms for years. Its a legitimate thing to discuss right now too. He is still our GM.

Like I said, I'm not a dictator. I was just posting my thoughts about the matter. I'll sit out discussing his legacy for a couple of years.

 

As for Cherrington, I don't see him as getting any honeymoon or grace period from ownership. He'll be expected to get the organization back on track and winning next season. If he doesn't, Brian Cashman will be available, and the owners know that Cashman knows how to do the job.

[iortiz]

Like I said, I'm not a dictator. I was just posting my thoughts about the matter. I'll sit out discussing his legacy for a couple of years.

 

As for Cherrington, I don't see him as getting any honeymoon or grace period from ownership. He'll be expected to get the organization back on track and winning next season. If he doesn't, Brian Cashman will be available, and the owners know that Cashman knows how to do the job.

 

As i said, i would go for someone out of baseball business but If i go for someone from there, Why not try and go after Andrew Friedman?.

[a700hitter]

As i said' date=' i would go for someone out of baseball business but If i go for someone from there, Why not try to go after Andrew Friedman?.[/quote']Good choice.

[jung]

The way free agency is structured in baseball is inherently flawed. "The only way to win is to not play". I would hazard that while the FA signings tend to dominate these discussions because they are of the highest profile, if you took all of the GM's and reviewed all the FA signing records, they would all suck to some degree with those GM's able to offer the largest contracts over the longest terms having the worst records (that by itself should show you how flawed free agency is in baseball).

 

The new Sox GM is coming from within because JH and LL want to exert even more control than what they had over Theo. In fact Theo is as much leaving now because there is no career path for him in Boston and it is time for him to have more authority than Boston is willing to give him. I suspect Boston was down to its last year with Theo because JH and LL were beginning to wonder when Theo was going to start to get happy feet.

[The Black Prince]

How many times in the last 10 years have the Yankees missed the playoffs? Getting into the playoffs gives a team the chance for a ring; not getting in is failure. Cashman is a better GM than Epstein. Furthermore' date=' I do not agree with your hypothesis that its just big market GMs that should be compared. Beane and Friedman are FAR superior to Epstein. Give those two Epstein's budget and the results would reveal that. Showalter was right earlier this year when he said that Epstein would be nothing in a small market. It wasn't politically correct, but it was factually correct. Too bad he apologized.[/quote']

 

 

 

Don't be a ****. Cashman is a poor GM who Is bailed ut every year by spending over $200M and where his mistakes don't hurt because they simpy buy another team.

[a700hitter]

The way free agency is structured in baseball is inherently flawed. "The only way to win is to not play". I would hazard that while the FA signings tend to dominate these discussions because they are of the highest profile' date=' if you took all of the GM's and reviewed all the FA signing records, they would all suck to some degree with those GM's able to offer the largest contracts over the longest terms having the worst records (that by itself should show you how flawed free agency is in baseball).[/quote']I don't thionk that has been generally true. The Yankees have had a bust with AJ (arguably he has still been better than Lackey), but CC Sabathia has played as advertised. He's a horse. Tex had an off year in 2011, but aside from that he has performed at an excellent level. Going back, Damon was a good acquisition for them. Theo's big money FA acquisitions almost uniformly have been busts.

[ORS]

The good players cost a total of $39.55M; the bad players cost a total of $325.30M. That is not a good track record.

This reasoning is a house of cards, built on a straw foundation....in a wind storm.

 

This ratio of actual dollars for finds/busts is going to be bad for every GM due to the nature of the comparison. The "finds" are, by nature, players who had little track record to command a high salary and subsequently performed at a high level. The "busts" are, by nature, the polar opposite.

 

Example1 kind of got the correction right when he showed you the WAR salary value added through the draft. That needs to be extended into his FA signings to accurately gauge his performance in the FA market.

 

Yes, his finds only "cost" x, but what were they worth in terms of $/production value? Sames goes for his busts. The base dollars will always lead you to a faulty evaluation.

[a700hitter]

If you mess up on a $5 million signing like Smoltz and Penny, it doesn't devastate a team's finances. They are low cost moves with a low probability of success. If you hit on one of those occasionally it's great, but the probability of hitting on one of those is low. When you pay the money for a big ticket luxury car, you don't expect it to perform like a yugo. The big ticket guy may not completely justify his salary, but he shouldn't perform at Darnell McDonald levels. Theo purchased too many yugos for Masserati money. The last straw was Lackey, who was the worst starting pitcher in Sox history. Historically, our GM's have only had to pay the minimum salary to get a pitcher who was not nearly as bad as Lackey.

[FredLynn]

Don't be a ****. Cashman is a poor GM who Is bailed ut every year by spending over $200M and where his mistakes don't hurt because they simpy buy another team.

 

I promise not to be a **** if you stop being one.

[FredLynn]

This reasoning is a house of cards, built on a straw foundation....in a wind storm.

 

This ratio of actual dollars for finds/busts is going to be bad for every GM due to the nature of the comparison. The "finds" are, by nature, players who had little track record to command a high salary and subsequently performed at a high level. The "busts" are, by nature, the polar opposite.

 

Example1 kind of got the correction right when he showed you the WAR salary value added through the draft. That needs to be extended into his FA signings to accurately gauge his performance in the FA market.

 

Yes, his finds only "cost" x, but what were they worth in terms of $/production value? Sames goes for his busts. The base dollars will always lead you to a faulty evaluation.

 

Not buying it. This sounds like the kind of excuses that our FO has been spoon feeding us for years. Baseball history is littered with not only highly paid busts but highly paid "finds". Sabathia. Rodriguez (like it or not, his numbers so far in pinstripes are excellent). Pedro Martinez. Manny Ramirez. All of those guys and many many more provided some return for the investment. Its just too bad that our soon to be ex GM couldn't have a better track record and fewer excuses that will follow him out the door.

[VA Sox Fan]

I promise not to be a **** if you stop being one.

 

Is The Black Prince someone from the other board you were on? :dunno:

[FredLynn]

Is The Black Prince someone from the other board you were on? :dunno:

 

Not that I know of. Unless he was there under a different name.

[a700hitter]

Not that I know of. Unless he was there under a different name.

That's a strong word that he has been using-- one that we here at TalkSox reserve for Yankee fans, but only on rare occasions.

[ORS]

Not buying it. This sounds like the kind of excuses that our FO has been spoon feeding us for years. Baseball history is littered with not only highly paid busts but highly paid "finds". Sabathia. Rodriguez (like it or not' date=' his numbers so far in pinstripes are excellent). Pedro Martinez. Manny Ramirez. All of those guys and many many more provided some return for the investment. Its just too bad that our soon to be ex GM couldn't have a better track record and fewer excuses that will follow him out the door.[/quote']

It's not an excuse, it can't be because I haven't done any analysis using the methods I described....I don't care all that much about the outcome....so I don't know what the results of that analysis would be. It's only a criticism of the methodology you used, and a valid one.

[example1]

Not buying it. This sounds like the kind of excuses that our FO has been spoon feeding us for years. Baseball history is littered with not only highly paid busts but highly paid "finds". Sabathia. Rodriguez (like it or not' date=' his numbers so far in pinstripes are excellent). [/quote']

 

A-Rod's numbers aren't "excellent". They are good, but not excellent. What makes them not excellent are his past few seasons, where his production has dropped considerably. He still has, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 at 20+m.

 

A comparison:

 

Alex Rodriguez 2008-2011: 18.6 WAR, $126m. $6.77m/WAR

Kevin Youkilis 2008-2011: 19.7 WAR, $30.87m. 1.56m/WAR

 

For that money Youkilis has been a much better value for a fraction of the cost (less than 1/4). In fact, money aside he has been the better player during that time.

 

Let's not kid ourselves: when the Yankees signed A-Rod to go with their already World Series caliber team, they expected to win more than one WS between 2004 and 2011. They haven't.

 

Satathia has been the 4th most valuable pitcher during that stretch. He's been a good purchase during that time.

[VA Sox Fan]

That's a strong word that he has been using-- one that we here at TalkSox reserve for Yankee fans' date=' but only on rare occasions.[/quote']

 

[example1]

It's not an excuse' date=' it can't be because I haven't done any analysis using the methods I described....I don't care all that much about the outcome....so I don't know what the results of that analysis would be. It's only a criticism of the methodology you used, and a valid one.[/quote']

 

It's not that hard to do. I imagine Pumpsie could do it in 45 minutes or so.

 

1. Find the WAR Value of all the players Theo signed during their time in Boston

2. Find the salary paid to those individuals in actual dollars.

3. Note the difference

 

Combine that with the minor-league deals I described and (sort of) presto.

 

I'm sure he'll do it soon.

[FredLynn]

It's not that hard to do. I imagine Pumpsie could do it in 45 minutes or so.

 

1. Find the WAR Value of all the players Theo signed during their time in Boston

2. Find the salary paid to those individuals in actual dollars.

3. Note the difference

 

Combine that with the minor-league deals I described and (sort of) presto.

 

I'm sure he'll do it soon.

 

You are sure I will do it? LOL.

No, I am not going to do it. Sorry. If you want it done you will have to do it. Here is what I am saying: Epstein is a poor judge of FA talent and executed far more busts than finds during his tenure here, and that that affects his overall grade in terms of his performance. I am not making a negative judgement about his trades or his minor league acquisitions via drafting. Lets give him an "A" for the latter categories, for the sake of the debate. How would you grade his FA acquisitions and how would that affect his overall grade as GM? You already know what I think about this. It has a profound affect on his grade.

[FredLynn]

That's a strong word that he has been using-- one that we here at TalkSox reserve for Yankee fans' date=' but only on rare occasions.[/quote']

 

Mea culpa.

Maybe he IS a Yankee fan.

I do not initiate that kind of language, but I do feel free to respond in kind when its clearly aimed at me.

[Palodios]

You are sure I will do it? LOL.

No, I am not going to do it. Sorry. If you want it done you will have to do it.

 

 

Sounds like you don't want to do research that will prove yourself wrong.

[FredLynn]

A-Rod's numbers aren't "excellent". They are good, but not excellent. What makes them not excellent are his past few seasons, where his production has dropped considerably. He still has, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 at 20+m.

 

A comparison:

 

Alex Rodriguez 2008-2011: 18.6 WAR, $126m. $6.77m/WAR

Kevin Youkilis 2008-2011: 19.7 WAR, $30.87m. 1.56m/WAR

 

For that money Youkilis has been a much better value for a fraction of the cost (less than 1/4). In fact, money aside he has been the better player during that time.

 

Let's not kid ourselves: when the Yankees signed A-Rod to go with their already World Series caliber team, they expected to win more than one WS between 2004 and 2011. They haven't.

 

Satathia has been the 4th most valuable pitcher during that stretch. He's been a good purchase during that time.

 

I am no fan of Slappy, but he has done well with the Yankees. He has given them some numbers. During his 8 years his OPS is .941 and he has averaged over 35 HR a year. Same for Mark Teixeira, though not quite as much. His OPS in three years as a Yankee is .877. Both have been productive.

We get Crawford (OPS with the Sox: .694) and Cameron (OPS: .637) and Drew who never even reached 70 RBIs in his five year Sox career and wouldn't play if he had a hangnail.

The point is that there are many many FAs who worked out for their team. Even Epstein got a few of them; just not enough. His ratio of failures to successes is atrocious. He did well in other areas, but failed miserably in getting his money's worth out of FAs. Thats really not even debatable IMO. Its all over the media. And that shortcoming significantly affects his overall grade as our GM. He WASTED way too much of the franchise's resources in signing lemons, lemons that we will be stuck with for years after he leaves.

[a700hitter]

Theo's Big Ticket FA Acquistions (i.e. anything over $10 million):

 

Lackey

Crawford

Drew

Dice K

Lugo

Cameron

Jenks

Renteria

Clement

Foulke

 

Am I missing anyone? Do we really need to research WAR on these guys. It's a damning list.

[FredLynn]

 

Sounds like you don't want to do research that will prove yourself wrong.

 

I do not agree with his premise, and I do research when I see fit to do it. I do not know how it would come out since it hasn't been done. Furthermore, in the process of a debate EVERYONE uses numbers and data that support their own position.

[FredLynn]

Theo's Big Ticket FA Acquistions (i.e. anything over $10 million):

 

Lackey

Crawford

Drew

Dice K

Lugo

Cameron

Jenks

Renteria

Clement

Foulke

 

Am I missing anyone? Do we really need to research WAR on these guys. It's a damning list.

 

Well, Foulke worked out, right?

[DwightFright]

Theo is history. I'm not sure why we are debating his record. We owe him a debt of gratitude. He did a lot of great things and he never shirked accountability. Good luck to him. Now' date=' we need to move on.[/quote']

 

I think the issue being questioned is whether Cherington is truely ' moving on' or the SOS.

[a700hitter]

Furthermore' date=' in the process of a debate EVERYONE uses numbers and data that support their own position.[/quote']Exactly. I really don't care about a guy's splits against one-eyed, left-handed pitcher, during day games on natural turf.

[FredLynn]

Exactly. I really don't care about a guy's splits against one-eyed' date=' left-handed pitcher, during day games on natural turf.[/quote']

 

Its all good for me. The only issue I have is when there is no data at all to support one's position and its passed off as fact somehow, or as indisputable. I respect the opinions of those who think Epstein did a good job; I don't agree with that position, but there is at least some data to support that opinion. Not enough, but some.