Would you do an Ellsbury for Lincecum trade?

[mvp 78]

I worry about Lincecum's body holding up' date=' for one. I learned with Pedro Martinez that scouts usually know what they're talking about when they say that a guy's body may not hold up for the long term, and with Lincecum's velocity dipping for three straight years (though it picked up a mile this year) you wonder if that strange motion isn't going to screw his elbow up eventually. And trading for him would make no sense if you aren't going to extend him, and he'll require lots of years and lots of money.[/quote']

 

Well, if he holds up exactly like Pedro, he'll have 6-7 more years of being an ace. That's more reassuring than worrisome.

 

Frail Pedro held up much better than more solidly built pitchers of his era.

[Spitball]

It comes down to two years. Ellsbury will be a free agent in two years. Lincecum will be a free agent in two years. Both seem inclined to test the market when their two years are up. The Giants are desperate for offense and need a center fielder. The Red Sox need starting pitching to compete in the AL East.

 

Given two years with Lincecum, the Sox could regroup and develop their lower level starters. They have Reddick and Kalish. With the Red Sox infield offense, they can cover any weaknesses that might develop in the outfield in the next two years. Also, competent outfielders are easier to cover than competetive starting pitchers.

 

Lincecum might not have the body for long term, but he surely has enough for two years. I believe he will make about what Bronson Arroyo will make over the next two years. Ellsbury may have just had his career year as his minor league power numbers are nowhere near last year's power numbers.

 

I say roll the dice to improve the pitching.

[SoxSport]

I am more apt to trust the law of Murphey to the law of averages.

 

Tell it to the Cardinals. Maybe it's time for the Red Sox to get lucky again.

[SoxSport]

I say roll the dice to improve the pitching.

 

I dunno about this one. Ellsbury just had a monster year. Do they want to sell high?

Lincecum is coming off a down year--for him.

[jung]

This is all pretty hypothetical is it not? Rarely see a top notch SP like Lincecum traded for an everyday player straight up as we are toying with here even if the SP does not have his face plastered all over his current town.

[User Name]

Well, if he holds up exactly like Pedro, he'll have 6-7 more years of being an ace. That's more reassuring than worrisome.

 

Frail Pedro held up much better than more solidly built pitchers of his era.

 

That's obviously exactly the opposite of what i was saying. And didn't Pedro have surgery and then lost velocity on a year-to-year basis until he went to the Mets?

 

Pedro was a gamble that paid off, but would Lincecum pay off as well and hold up through the duration of the contract?

[Spitball]

I dunno about this one. Ellsbury just had a monster year. Do they want to sell high?

Lincecum is coming off a down year--for him.

 

The Sox have offense/outfielders. They have a woefully scary starting staff. I see a need being filled by a surplus coming off a career year.

[Spitball]

Pedro was a gamble that paid off, but would Lincecum pay off as well and hold up through the duration of the contract?

 

We are talkig about two years.

[User Name]

We are talkig about two years.

 

Why would the Sox trade for him without extending him?

 

That doesn't make any sense.

[jung]

Why would the Sox trade for him without extending him?

 

That doesn't make any sense.

 

This seems to be one item that is actually being driven from Tim's side. He has publicly stated that he likes these short term deals claiming that "he is uncomfortable with the pressure" of having to perform over such an extended period of time. Probably pretty commendable when you think about it but it does put the team (any team) in an odd position since you would think it would be the player pushing for or at least acquiescing to the longer term. As it is now he must go out there and prove himself every couple of years. I think his current deal has the Giants holding two years of arbitration rights over him with him at his current numbers plus performance bonuses.

[a700hitter]

This seems to be one item that is actually being driven from Tim's side. He has publicly stated that he likes these short term deals claiming that "he is uncomfortable with the pressure" of having to perform over such an extended period of time. Probably pretty commendable when you think about it but it does put the team (any team) in an odd position since you would think it would be the player pushing for or at least acquiescing to the longer term. As it is now he must go out there and prove himself every couple of years. I think his current deal has the Giants holding two years of arbitration rights over him with him at his current numbers plus performance bonuses.

The kid is obviously a bonehead.

[Spitball]

Why would the Sox trade for him without extending him?

 

That doesn't make any sense.

 

Because Ellsbury is surely gone in two years, and Lincecum is too big a long term gamble for what he will command. Two years is a perfect time frame for a dominant pitcher who will surely decline beyond that period of time. In that time, the Sox can develop their own starting pitchers.

[jung]

surely decline

 

I am not sure I would use language this strong. Remembering that in MLB these are guaranteed contracts would you "surely decline" $17-$20M per year for five years if that was being offered? You could just as easily blow out your arm at the end of a two year deal and then where are you? Tim made $13M in 2011 so even $15-17M per over five years would look pretty sweet I would think.

 

I think it is odd for a guy to be as disinclined to long term deals as Tim appears to be and he does make it sound like he has already rejected longer term deals that what he has had to date.

[commenter]

It'd take more than Ellsbury for Lincecum.

 

It'd take Ellsbury & a few prospects.

 

Lincecum is a real ace. Even in his "bad" years, he's still an amazing pitcher. He constantly gives 200+ innings every year.

 

Ellsbury's had one year.

 

I still think they should trade Ellsbury. But for major league ready prospects (pitchers/outfielders/shortstop). I think they could get a lot for him, especially since he has 2 years left on his contract.

[jung]

There are some warning signs in Tim's stats. His innings per year are way off their peak though still above 200. He pitched 265 innings in 33 games in one of his CY years and 261 in the other. In 2011 he pitched 220 innings in the same 33 starts. Clearly he is no longer going deep into the game as often.

 

His SO per nine are headed steadily down and his walks per nine are steadily up.

 

That said I agree that Ells by himself would not get it done and you would still be faced with a pitcher that is probably right on the bring of starting to press his luck a bit. I am sure Tim sees the same things we see and you can only throw as hard as you can throw. When the result is not the same the tendency is to press. I am truly concerned that Tim is well on the way to his first Pedro experience. I think he is much more frail than even Pedro while exerting more torque on his arm than Pedro did.

[example1]

The question is whether Lincecum will break down over the next 6-7 years. He could be that once per-generation pitcher. His accomplishments so far point to that. If that's the case then he's worth Ellsbury + to get him.

 

He could also be showing signs of a decline already, in which case even moving Ellsbury for him might be giving up too much. Certainly scouts would know better than us which he is.

 

I really like his mental make up and approach to the game. I think he's cocky and self-confident and his stuff is spectacular.

 

I guess all in all I still see Felix Hernandez as the guy to dump MVP caliber players for.

[a700hitter]

The question is whether Lincecum will break down over the next 6-7 years. He could be that once per-generation pitcher. His accomplishments so far point to that. If that's the case then he's worth Ellsbury + to get him.

 

He could also be showing signs of a decline already, in which case even moving Ellsbury for him might be giving up too much. Certainly scouts would know better than us which he is.

 

I really like his mental make up and approach to the game. I think he's cocky and self-confident and his stuff is spectacular.

 

I guess all in all I still see Felix Hernandez as the guy to dump MVP caliber players for.

Both lincecum and Felix have had declines in velocity.

[example1]

Both lincecum and Felix have had declines in velocity.

 

No doubt. Felix was also the 5th hardest thrower among pitchers with 200+ IP in 2011. I wouldn't say he's devolved into a soft tosser.

[a700hitter]

No doubt. Felix was also the 5th hardest thrower among pitchers with 200+ IP in 2011. I wouldn't say he's devolved into a soft tosser.

A decline at age 25 is not a good sign. We didn't get Pedro until he was 26 and he was still lighting up the gun at 97.

[jung]

I think the decline that Lincecum is showing really puts a team interested in him on the hot seat as there is enough there to make one concerned that he could be headed for a physical breakdown in the near term yet not enough there to put a dent in the compensation that the Giants would demand for him. So for example if the Sox gave up Ells and two good prospects for him or even the unthinkable, just Ells himself for him can you imagine the uproar if Lincecum broke down even during the second year here, let alone the first. Heck if he broke down the first year there would a linch mob on the way to Fenway.

 

If he was a typical big strong pitcher, I think there would be less concern but the way he throws makes you wonder if we are gong to see his arm on the ground half way between the mound and home plate one of these times. It is like watching somebody with a buggy-whip the way he leverages his body against his arm. It is probably in part why he has such great stuff as well but it sure does not look like a body and a pitching motion meant to last long term and his numbers are declining.

[mvp 78]

That's obviously exactly the opposite of what i was saying. And didn't Pedro have surgery and then lost velocity on a year-to-year basis until he went to the Mets?

 

Pedro was a gamble that paid off, but would Lincecum pay off as well and hold up through the duration of the contract?

 

No kidding.

 

I was pointing out the falacy of the Pedro was frail/Lincecum is frail argument. He held up fine. Had rotator cuff surgery. Still pitched into his 30's. Body type tells little about the length of a pitcher's career.

 

It'd be like trading for Pedro in 1998.

[jung]

Pedro was still stronger and had a more classical delivery than Lincecum has. Maybe more importantly, when the Sox got Pedro, innings pitched and SO/9 were all going up much like they are now for Felix. Innings pitched and SO/9 have been gradually headed down for Tim since his first CY year.

 

Pedro's last 2 years in Montreal he pitched 216 and 241 innings over 31 starts each year and then pitched 231 and 217 innings over 29 his first two years in Boston. He was still going deeper into games even his first two years in Boston. His SO/9 were still headed north as well and Pedro had his two best SO/9 years his first two in Boston. Virtually all of Pedro's stats were still headed in the right direction when the Sox signed him and for the first two years after. Tim is not giving up more home runs as yet but how long do you think that would last headed to the AL East while his stats are in general decline?

 

Pedro suffered his first injury in about his 10th year and it only cost him half a season and an off season I believe. He came back strong the next year.

 

Virtually every stat is headed the wrong way for Tim, not just the few I mentioned earlier and that is a petty steep glide slope for somebody as young as Tim. BB and BB/9 are headed the wrong way as well and most have been in gradual decline since the CY years. I would be most concerned with how deep he is going into games even now pitching in the NL West. On average he is going about 6.6 innings per start now down from almost 8 in his best year. The gradual nature of his decline is frankly pretty alarming if you are about to send off the most valuable trade asset you have for him. I would rather see a graph line bouncing up and down than one that is so decidedly headed south.

 

Presuming a straight up deal, Ells for Lincecum would never happen I would likely be more interested in an Ells + deal for Lincecum if the Sox had not stretched the "risk" elastic band out about far as it can go. They already have big money tied up in risks that went the wrong way and have work to do just to recover from those.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nobody seems to want to move a regular player for a pitcher. I can understand that, but when your only major trade chip is a regular, then you're stuck. This is a unique offseason. Tons of teams need pitching, and very few players will be on the market. The sox now have 2 holes in their rotation and are counting on healthy seasons from Buchholz, Lester and Beckett. And we all know that 2 of those 3 are unproven in terms of long term durability. You might have to deal from your offense to fill the pitching hole. The minors are a wasteland from AA up, so the only deals you'll make from a prospect perspective will be salary dumps. And the only guy who looks like a potential dump is Zambrano, who'd be a risky get at the high price in the AL East. The options really are to go as is and fill the #4 and #5 spots with guys who are coin tosses or deal from the offense and get a legitimate stopper in the rotation

[jung]

Nobody seems to want to move a regular player for a pitcher.

 

In the first place the question as posed is unrealistic. The Giants are not offering Lincecum straight up for Ells and they are not going to. It would be Ells+ if at all and I would prefer Ells alone or Ells+ maybe Riddick for multiple players all of them MLB ready or no more than one year away with at least one of them a solid middle of the rotation guy to an Ells+ deal for a star pitcher with stats all headed the wrong way. That would give Lester one more year to move past Beckett into the #1 spot and would put the Sox in position to grab a #1 if they have to in 2013, which is shaping up as a better year to be hunting for a top of the rotation guy.

 

or:

 

Do an Ells+ deal this year for a SP pitcher with stats headed the right way not the wrong way.

[example1]

In the first place the question as posed is unrealistic. The Giants are not offering Lincecum straight up for Ells and they are not going to. It would be Ells+ if at all and I would prefer Ells alone or Ells+ maybe Riddick for multiple players all of them MLB ready or no more than one year away with at least one of them a solid middle of the rotation guy to an Ells+ deal for a star pitcher with stats all headed the wrong way. That would give Lester one more year to move past Beckett into the #1 spot and would put the Sox in position to grab a #1 if they have to in 2013, which is shaping up as a better year to be hunting for a top of the rotation guy.

 

or:

 

Do an Ells+ deal this year for a SP pitcher with stats headed the right way not the wrong way.

 

2013 is probably the better year to expend a lot of resources for pitching. The Sox are in no position right now to be moving a bunch of talent simply to move talent around on the field. In other words, trading Ells and a high profile prospect simply to move Ells's 5-7 WAR from CF to the mound seems a bit unnecessary. Especially if it requires moving a guy like Bogaerts or another really high ceiling prospect.

 

That said, what would be the equivalent of the Josh Beckett deal now? Probably guys like Middlebrooks and/or Bogaerts would be involved (not Ellsbury) but who is that pitcher now? Lincecum and Felix are too accomplished to compare to 2006 Beckett.

 

Is there a high ceiling pitcher who has been inconsistent, on a small market/desperate team?

[Spitball]

Is there a high ceiling pitcher who has been inconsistent, on a small market/desperate team?

 

I believe Edinson Volquez is done in Cincinnati. He has had trouble finding the plate since TJ surgery, but he still strikes out a lot of batters and has a high ceiling.

[example1]

I believe Edinson Volquez is done in Cincinnati. He has had trouble finding the plate since TJ surgery' date=' but he still strikes out a lot of batters and has a high ceiling.[/quote']

 

That's a good example of what I was asking about. Beckett clearly was a more impressive pitcher when traded to the Sox than Volquez is now, but arm-wise and situationally, I think you're aiming in the right direction here.

 

That said, Volquez was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. He would be a gamble--probably shouldn't move top prospects for him.

[Palodios]

Is there a high ceiling pitcher who has been inconsistent' date=' on a small market/desperate team?[/quote']

 

I just took a quick look at the top WAR pitchers on fangraphs, and it doesn't seem that kind of guy is out there. Most of the best pitchers are either established or very cost-controlled.

 

If the Red Sox are going to trade for a new pitcher, they are probably going to have to target one of the pitching rich teams. Oakland, Atlanta, San Francisco, possibly even the White Sox. The Padres and Rays probably have no interest whatsoever in dealing with the Red Sox right now.

 

Oakland seems like the best trade target, in my opinion. They're losing Willingham, Dejesus, Conor Jackson, Crisp, Matsui, so they're short on offense. I would believe they'd be interested in taking some combination of Ellsbury, Youkilis, Middlebrooks or Lavarnway for some of their pitching.

[example1]

I just took a quick look at the top WAR pitchers on fangraphs, and it doesn't seem that kind of guy is out there. Most of the best pitchers are either established or very cost-controlled.

 

If the Red Sox are going to trade for a new pitcher, they are probably going to have to target one of the pitching rich teams. Oakland, Atlanta, San Francisco, possibly even the White Sox. The Padres and Rays probably have no interest whatsoever in dealing with the Red Sox right now.

 

Oakland seems like the best trade target, in my opinion. They're losing Willingham, Dejesus, Conor Jackson, Crisp, Matsui, so they're short on offense. I would believe they'd be interested in taking some combination of Ellsbury, Youkilis, Middlebrooks or Lavarnway for some of their pitching.

 

Another good avenue to explore. I don' tknow if the A's have any truly Cy Young candidate starters in their group, but they have some pretty intreguing arms. Perhaps they would be willing to move Gio Gonzalez for Lars Anderson.

[Laser Show]

Another good avenue to explore. I don' tknow if the A's have any truly Cy Young candidate starters in their group' date=' but they have some pretty intreguing arms. Perhaps they would be willing to move Gio Gonzalez for Lars Anderson. [/quote']

 

I wouldn't mind Cahill and/or Gonzalez. I'm just not too sure of their value. The A's recently said that they're open to trading anyone except Jemile Weeks.