2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

It is pretty disheartening to hear that the Sox would need to move payroll to have Oswalt join the team. Of course' date=' it is only disheartening if they are also going [i']over[/i] the cap. If they are trying to stay under the cap and think they can do it then I'm all for it. But if they are already over the cap and unwilling to spend the 8m/1 year to get a guy like Oswalt then that's pretty bad news.

 

What's amazing to me is that there are very few actual credible sources for cap space. People know what type of chicken they like to eat in the clubhouse, but their actual payroll--which apparently is the one determining factor in the rest of their moves this offseason--remains a complete mystery. Are they over the LT or not? If not, by how much? If so, by how much?

 

Again, if this is all a power move to avoid the LT for this year I'm with Pumpsie, because it will allow them to be more aggressive next year, PLUS I think they are good enough to win this year. Hopefully that's what they are working on, rather than a sudden interest in pinching pennies from JH and the ownership crew.

 

Nobody knows right now.

 

They've got:

 

Aceves

Aviles

Bard

D-Mac

Bailey

Ellsbury

Sweeney

 

All working out deals under arbitration. There could be millions of dollars in discrepancies in what the Sox expect to pay and what they actually pay. This could free up some money, and it could also tie up more money than they want.

 

Hopefully it goes 1 of 2 ways. Either it frees up enough money so that they can afford Oswalt, or it puts them over the cap and they can stop trying to stay under it and blow the cap and sign a good SP.

[SoxSport]

They have to move payroll if they they don't want to go over the cap. There's a difference.

 

They didn't seem to be concerned about going over the cap giving Ortiz arbitration, when pitching was clearly more important.

 

It boils down to priorities. Moneywise, pitching has not been the priority pre-season, probably because they have so much money tied up in Dice-K and Lackey. But that's where the weakness is--pitching.

[FredLynn]

They have to move payroll if they they don't want to go over the cap. There's a difference.

 

They didn't seem to be concerned about going over the cap giving Ortiz arbitration, when pitching was clearly more important.

 

It boils down to priorities. Moneywise, pitching has not been the priority pre-season, probably because they have so much money tied up in Dice-K and Lackey. But that's where the weakness is--pitching.

 

While none of us know for sure where the team stands with regard to the cap, I sure hope our FO knows exactly where we stand. Thats part of their job. I am willing to go with what we have right now ONLY IF we are under the cap and don't go over it. I definitely do not want to read later on that we were just a couple of million over the cap (and hence would be paying a 40% LT surcharge next year) and that the owners were just too cheap to sign someone to give a better shot at a ring this year.

[Bellhorn04]

They have to move payroll if they they don't want to go over the cap. There's a difference.

 

They didn't seem to be concerned about going over the cap giving Ortiz arbitration, when pitching was clearly more important.

 

From what I've seen, they're probably going over the 178 million cap whether or not they sign Oswalt. It sounds to me like they've set a budget maximum which might be 5 million over the cap or something like that.

[FredLynn]

From what I've seen' date=' they're probably going over the 178 million cap whether or not they sign Oswalt. It sounds to me like they've set a budget maximum which might be 5 million over the cap or something like that.[/quote']

 

If thats the way it turns out, and we fail to sign someone who could increase our chances for a ring this year, then I am going to be all over the ownership again. So far I think they have done well, but if they penny pinch this year unnecessarily, then I am not going to be so kind to them.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, I just went through all of the players and calculated their AAV.

 

I found 17 guaranteed salaries, and they added up to $136,800,000. So that leaves approximately $41.2mm to split up between the remaining 23 players on the 40 man roster.

 

The players who still need salaries:

 

Ortiz

Ellsbury

Sweeney

Tazawa

Aceves

Aviles

Bard

McDOnald

Bailey

Morales (Franklin)

Melancon

Anderson (Lars)

Bowden

Exposito

Kalish

Lavarnway

Pimental

Tejada

Doubront

Atchison

Britton

Middlebrooks

Lin

 

Assuming the bolded names average $500k per player (13 players), that tallies up to $143,200,000. That now leaves $34.8mm for the remaining players.

 

Ortiz will probably be around $14mm.

Ellsbury will likely be around $8mm.

Sweeney will likely get around 2mm (he was at 1.4mm last year).

Aceves will get a huge bump (he was at 650k last year). Probably around $2mm.

Aviles should be around $750k,

Bard - Should be in the 2.3mm range.

D-Mac - Around $500k.

Bailey around 1.2mm.

Morales and Melancon at $650k each.

 

And, in AAV terms, that puts this team at $175,328,631.

 

To stay below the LT threshold, that leaves them with $2,671,369 to spend.

 

They need to move approximately $6mm to even have a shot at a guy like Oswalt.

 

The players in the $6mm range are Pedroia, Lester, Scutaro, and Jenks.

 

Jenks has really dicked us bad. Scutaro is moveable. Pedroia and Lester are obviously going nowhere.

 

What really, really sucks is that between DiceK, Lackey, and Jenks, that's an AAV of $31,660,000 on the DL. With that money, this team could have made a couple big moves.

[jung]

The cap does get hard to figure if you don't have all the particulars (like we don't). There are additional debits and ultimately some credits that usually come your way with regard to the cap number before all is said and done. I think I posted this earlier but the cost of insurance on contracts goes into your cap calculation just as an example and is money against you in that regard. There are other items that usually come back your way a bit as the organization shifts around and settles on who they sign and under what terms and where they will play.

 

In my case I could not envision a way for them to get under regardless of what credits they might be piling up or what contracts they might fudge around with if they either signed Kuroda or Oswalt.

 

You guys might remember that the Sox used a loophole that nobody had ever used before when they signed AGons and moved his signing to a date that would eliminate his cost from the current year calculation to the following year. I don't think they closed that loophole in the new CBA which is kinda' surprising at least to me.

 

I thought they would make this easy on us or at leasts me as they closed in on the cap but from the point where I had a decent idea, they started signing minor league deals. Unless they get something really good for their money I am going to be kinda' disappointed if they end up all debits in and all credits in going over by a number like $2-3M just because of the implications for next year.

 

These minor league signings and other moves are sort of maddening in that sense because appearances would suggest they are not quite over yet. Again last I thought I had a bead on it, I thought they were at about $176M and then ya' got me. I did not pay close enough attention figuring there would be that one big signing that just left no doubt.....frustrating!

[jung]

I was typing something irrelevant while you were typing something relevant SoxFan...thanks for that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think that number is fairly accurate, at least within a couple million. Who knows, though. I could see how the payroll could easily top $178mm if Ellsbury, Bard, Ortiz, Aceves, or Bailey wins an arb hearing.

[jung]

Well at least you have some money in there for the Arb guys that makes some sense. When I had fiddled with it awhile back I stuck Ortiz in at $15M just in case and that was to close for comfort. I think he is likely to come in at $14M. Wonder if Ells is the wild card.

[example1]

I think that number is fairly accurate' date=' at least within a couple million. Who knows, though. I could see how the payroll could easily top $178mm if Ellsbury, Bard, Ortiz, Aceves, or Bailey wins an arb hearing.[/quote']

 

Are any of these players actually going to arbitration? I believe that during Theo's tenure no player actually made it to arbitration, they all signed before arb was necessary--even just to one year deals. I suspect Ben will be similar.

[jung]

That's a good point E. Don't you think Ortiz gets there because there aren't any deal numbers that work at all when compared to an Arb year at $14M? Ortiz would be nuts to go for 2/20 just as an example. On the other hand would the Sox offer him 1/15 instead of going to Arb? Only reason to do that would be to protect against an Arb win that got him more than $15M right?

[Bellhorn04]

I think that number is fairly accurate' date=' at least within a couple million. Who knows, though. I could see how the payroll could easily top $178mm if Ellsbury, Bard, Ortiz, Aceves, or Bailey wins an arb hearing.[/quote']

 

The payroll figure for LT purposes also includes an add-on for payroll benefits like pension contributions etc., which is estimated at around 10.5 million. So that's a major kick in the groin right there.

[redsoxbeatz]

So, we're not signing King Felix, huh? lol

 

Okay enough of this ******** pre-season crap. I want to see some baseball. It's too hard to tell what we have right now cause just think of all the injuries that are just waiting to explode on our pitchers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Are any of these players actually going to arbitration? I believe that during Theo's tenure no player actually made it to arbitration' date=' they all signed before arb was necessary--even just to one year deals. I suspect Ben will be similar.[/quote']

 

If they ever went to a hearing, I would say it would be this year. FO seems extremely stingy this year, and we've got Ortiz coming off a very big year, and Ellsbury coming off an MVP season. Aceves and Bard will not be easy settlements, either, as they both have had huge production over the past few years.

[Meh]

.

Bailey around 1.2mm.

 

Bailey is projected to earn 3.5 million. 1.2 is a joke man... Robertson is going to get at least 1.8 million and he's not even a closer.

 

Sweeney signed like 3 or 4 days ago too for 1.7 or 1.8

[example1]

That's a good point E. Don't you think Ortiz gets there because there aren't any deal numbers that work at all when compared to an Arb year at $14M? Ortiz would be nuts to go for 2/20 just as an example. On the other hand would the Sox offer him 1/15 instead of going to Arb? Only reason to do that would be to protect against an Arb win that got him more than $15M right?

 

If they ever went to a hearing' date=' I would say it would be this year. FO seems extremely stingy this year, and we've got Ortiz coming off a very big year, and Ellsbury coming off an MVP season. Aceves and Bard will not be easy settlements, either, as they both have had huge production over the past few years.[/quote']

 

Both of these posts seem right.

 

I bet if they go to arb they don't go to arb with Ellsbury, and do with Ortiz. Specifically, I can't remember many FA type arb cases with them.

 

Historically I think it is good practice to not let your pre-FA players go to arb because it isn't much of a sign of good-will (or good employment) to wrestle with employees over every last dollar. If they want to have any chance of signing Ellsbury to anything like his "market value" it would be best to not nickle-and-dime him with an arb process right now.

 

Ortiz, on the other hand, chose to take their offer. Further, getting into nickle-diming with him might increase the possibility that he leaves after this season or at least doesn't get too comfortable.

 

I don't remember if they've been in an Ortiz-like situation in the past.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bailey is projected to earn 3.5 million. 1.2 is a joke man... Robertson is going to get at least 1.8 million and he's not even a closer.

 

Sweeney signed like 3 or 4 days ago too for 1.7 or 1.8

 

Bailey made $415,000 last year, and is in his 1st arbitration year, and he only threw 90 IP in the past 2 seasons combined.

 

$1.2 is not a joke. Cherrington has a very good case to keep it around there based on his limited action.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Using the 40-60-80 rule, where a player receives 40% - 60% - 80% of their FA value in years 1 - 2 - 3 of arbitration, my valuation is actually almost dead on. FA value is determined by multiplying WAR * $4mm.

 

In the past 2 seasons, Bailey has averaged 0.95 WAR. That's $3,800,000 FA value. 40% of that would be $1.5mm. So I'm off by $300k, which is nominal at best.

[Palodios]

Did you guys factor in the Lackey option yet? That should amount to a luxury cap savings of 2+ million. I would bet that they're waiting till they hit the cap before exercising it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Did you guys factor in the Lackey option yet? That should amount to a luxury cap savings of 2+ million. I would bet that they're waiting till they hit the cap before exercising it.

 

Club options do not get calculated into AAV, and so the option will not affect his AAV. It's a damn shame, too. Player options are included in AAV calculation, club options are not.

[Palodios]

Club options do not get calculated into AAV' date=' and so the option will not affect his AAV. It's a damn shame, too. Player options are included in AAV calculation, club options are not.[/quote']

 

If it gets exercised, it turns to guaranteed dollars, and doesn't count as an option anymore, correct?

[SoxFanForsyth]

If it gets exercised' date=' it turns to guaranteed dollars, and doesn't count as an option anymore, correct?[/quote']

 

I believe that's correct. But I believe it would be counted as a 1 year contract when it's exercised.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If it gets exercised' date=' it turns to guaranteed dollars, and doesn't count as an option anymore, correct?[/quote']

 

Having said that, I guess the Sox could feasibly exercise Lackey's contract now, turn it into guaranteed dollars, and save $2,666,667 in LT.

[Palodios]

 

The players in the $6mm range are Pedroia, Lester, Scutaro, and Jenks.

 

Jenks has really dicked us bad. Scutaro is moveable. Pedroia and Lester are obviously going nowhere.

 

You missed one. Jacoby Ellsbury.

[User Name]

The option was automatically exercised when Lackey underwent TJS. The savings need to be factored in for this year's LT.

[Palodios]

Having said that' date=' I guess the Sox could feasibly exercise Lackey's contract now, turn it into guaranteed dollars, and save $2,666,667 in LT.[/quote']

 

The thing is, once the Red Sox go over the luxury cap, spending the league minimum-- 500k-- in 2015 would actually be less money than the amount of money they save in luxury cap savings just for 2012. It will also give them an extra 2.66666M to play with for 2012-2014 as well. And who knows, maybe he won't be completely worthless in 2015.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You missed one. Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Well, Ellsbury is projected at about $8mm. The players mentioned are between 6-7mm.

 

Regardless, he's not going anywhere either.

 

And I may have understated Bailey's contract, but I'm sure I overstated others. Like I said, it was a quick, rough estimate, but I think it's close enough to where we can at least have an idea as to how much we have to spend.

 

Bailey will probably be closer to 2.5mm. I doubt, after 2 consecutive sub-50 IP seasons, he'll make it to $3.5mm, as MLBTR suggests.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The option was automatically exercised when Lackey underwent TJS. The savings need to be factored in for this year's LT.

 

That's actually incorrect. The option becomes available. The club still has to exercise the option.

 

Per Cots, the actual stipulation is:

 

2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14

[jung]

I thought the club had to exercise the option as well. Glad the Sox get something out of that contract language.