2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's how RotoChamps and RotoWorld predict his performance' date=' actually, but with 155 and 150 IP respectively. I think they don't take into consideration a possible move back to the 'pen though.[/quote']

 

Yeah - the innings may be a bit heavy. If he can toss us 165 and have someone like Silva come in and pick up 80 IP to a 4.5 ERA, I'd be really happy with that.

 

That'd translate to about 245 IP of 3.83 ERA baseball from our #5 slot. I'd take that every day of the week.

[User Name]

Yeah - the innings may be a bit heavy. If he can toss us 165 and have someone like Silva come in and pick up 80 IP to a 4.5 ERA, I'd be really happy with that.

 

That'd translate to about 245 IP of 3.83 ERA baseball from our #5 slot. I'd take that every day of the week.

 

I was very much against converting Bard into a starter if you may recall. But after the departure of Papelbon and the acquisition of Melancon/Bailey, i figure it's worth a shot.

 

ORS made a great point. The Bard that flunked in 2007 and the Bard that's trying for the rotation in 2012 are not the same pitcher.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I was very much against converting Bard into a starter if you may recall. But after the departure of Papelbon and the acquisition of Melancon/Bailey, i figure it's worth a shot.

 

ORS made a great point. The Bard that flunked in 2007 and the Bard that's trying for the rotation in 2012 are not the same pitcher.

 

I have been saying that for like 2 months! But regardless - that's exactly right. His control is completely refined, and he also has added another pitch. If he can add a splitter to his repertoire, he could be an extremely effective SP.

[redsoxfan3]

you've converted me' date=' I agree with everything you said, and plus you can add that Ellsbury will not come close to next year's numbers, scutaro also will probaly not either. I also don't think Gonzales will hit for as high average as he did last year, and Ortiz will have significant drop off in production. Youkilis will be lucky to stay healthy for 300 abs the way his last 2 years have gone, and the worse part of this is there nobody close in the minors ready to contribute. The closer I look at, it will be probaly be a couple of years until we become competitive, well at least until Lackey and Beckett come off the books, and by that time Ellsbury will be gone via free agency(no way he signs back with Boston). So if we can deal with a couple of dismal years and start rebuilding 2015, we should be competitive by 2017. I would be shocked if we won 81 games this year, the rotation is horrofic, the pen is in shambles, and the offense is on the decline.[/quote']

 

I agree with the assessment that there is nothing that proves that this years pitching is better than last years. I know that the offseason is not over, basically there are a bunch of question marks. I don't think you can really make the conclusions in your post though, there is nothing to back that up.

 

Ellsbury most likely will have a drop off in power, but I see his stolen bases and average probably going to remain relatively close to last year's numbers.

 

It is hard to say with Scutaro. He is aging and I did not think he was going to be as effective as he was last year. I don't think anyone can really predict his exact numbers. I don't think he will have a huge dropoff. He might not hit .299 again, but I think it might be safe to say that he hits close to his career average of .270 which would be decent with him batting in the bottom of the order.

 

I do agree with you saying that Gonzalez's average probably won't be as high, but I also expect his power numbers to increase. He had a huge dropoff in power numbers in the second half last year. I still expect him to hit for a good average above .300.

 

Ortiz is also aging, so he is another question mark. I think he will have decent power numbers and a decent average again, but probably a little dropoff. I still think he will be a big part of our offense.

 

Youkilis has been plagued with injuries. You are right about that. I guess that constitutes him as a question mark. Although, I think his numbers will improve and he will be an added bonus to this offense.

 

I don't really think you can just jump to conclusions saying you will be shocked if we only win 81 games. Our rotation is not horrific. We have three reliable starters. We have Bard that will be interesting to watch and our last starter is undecided. To say our rotation is horrific is a stretch. To say it is a question mark is fair. To say that there is no proof that it is as good as last year is fair. To say that are pen is in shambles is also a stretch. I would say that our pen is a question mark. At this point we don't even know who is going to in our pen. Melancon and Bailey are obviously going to be key for us. You also have to think about Bard and Aceves, if we lose both of them to the rotation, then our pen is going to weaker than last year without a doubt. If one of Bard or Aceves can stay in the pen, then we have a decent 7th inning guy, set-up man, and closer. If both can stay in the pen, then that will be a bonus. I am not saying our pen is better or worse than last year, because that cannot be concluded at this point. We will know more after this Spring when our roster is finalized. I think it is also a stretch to say our offense is declining. There may be a little dropoff in some areas, but where there is a dropoff, there may be some improvement in others. If Crawford and Youk can have improved seasons, our offense will be perfectly fine. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Scutaro had good years last year. I don't expect there to be a huge dropoff there. With Crawford and Youk adding good offense, that gives us potentially seven reliable offensive contributors. RF is not set in stone and I don't expect much offensively at C with Shoppach and Salty. If Aviles is a person that is capable of platooning with Sweeney in RF, our offensive production in RF will likely increase some over last year.

 

You are talking about us not being able to compete the next couple of years. You are talking about us rebuilding and not being able to compete until 2017. You cannot make either of those assessments. We have Lavarnway who is major league ready offensively. Middlebrooks will be ready to take over 3B in the next couple of years. Iglesias may be able to become our future SS in the next couple years (if he improves his bat). Kalish will hopefully overcome his injuries and might be ready to have an impact in RF later this season. There are four guys that are close to ready to compete for us in the majors. Lavarnway can hopefully be able to be in the majors full time in 2013, Middlebrooks isn't too far from that, Kalish can hopefully help us out in 2012, Iglesias isn't far behind either. We also have guys like Bogaerts if Iglesias doesn't pan out. We have Wilson, Ranaudo, Barnes, Britton, Pimentel, etc. as starting pitchers in the minors who could develop into decent starting pitchers for us in the next few years. We have a lot of young prospects with talent. I think your perspective is a little off and you are being too pessimistic about this team. Before you jump to the conclusions you are, at least wait until Spring Training is over and the roster is finalized.

[User Name]

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic bro.

[redsoxfan3]

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic bro.

 

haha, so I went on a tangent for nothing. At least I like to debate. It is hard to sense sarcasm on the internet, maybe I should have read some of his previous posts in this thread.

[Palodios]

We're still waiting to hear from the so-called optimists on this. As predicted' date=' they got nothing.:thumbdown[/quote']

 

I still am convinced that either Kuroda, Oswalt or Jackson is coming to the Red Sox, although most likely Kuroda. I would argue that with one of those three guys, this team gets a significant boost over last year's pitching. Losing Bard from the bullpen hurts... but he lost nine games last year. Nine. He's a quality player, but he hurt the team more than he helped it last year-- especially in September. Losing Papelbon hurt, but I'm not sure that Ben is done with the bullpen either.

 

Even if one of Lester/Beckett/Buchholz gets hurt this year, adding one of K/O/J will definitely help a lot. If we get lucky, and all four are healthy, that rotation will be beastly. Plus, between Aceves/Bard/Doubront/Dice-k/Wilson, I think one of them will come out as a quality #4 pitcher. The #5 spot is a crapshoot, but I would argue that Ben is working on making sure that this team has enough depth to withstand a s***-storm this year.

[User Name]

Yeah he's been pretty ardently defending the team for some time. However, you raise some valid points. @rsf3

 

As Elktonnick said a couple posts back, this team played worse baseball as a whole than the sum of its parts. The changes of non-playing personnel should be enough to significantly improve the team even if they don't sign a solid #4.

[win red sox]

I agree with the assessment that there is nothing that proves that this years pitching is better than last years. I know that the offseason is not over, basically there are a bunch of question marks. I don't think you can really make the conclusions in your post though, there is nothing to back that up.

 

Ellsbury most likely will have a drop off in power, but I see his stolen bases and average probably going to remain relatively close to last year's numbers.

 

It is hard to say with Scutaro. He is aging and I did not think he was going to be as effective as he was last year. I don't think anyone can really predict his exact numbers. I don't think he will have a huge dropoff. He might not hit .299 again, but I think it might be safe to say that he hits close to his career average of .270 which would be decent with him batting in the bottom of the order.

 

I do agree with you saying that Gonzalez's average probably won't be as high, but I also expect his power numbers to increase. He had a huge dropoff in power numbers in the second half last year. I still expect him to hit for a good average above .300.

 

Ortiz is also aging, so he is another question mark. I think he will have decent power numbers and a decent average again, but probably a little dropoff. I still think he will be a big part of our offense.

 

Youkilis has been plagued with injuries. You are right about that. I guess that constitutes him as a question mark. Although, I think his numbers will improve and he will be an added bonus to this offense.

 

I don't really think you can just jump to conclusions saying you will be shocked if we only win 81 games. Our rotation is not horrific. We have three reliable starters. We have Bard that will be interesting to watch and our last starter is undecided. To say our rotation is horrific is a stretch. To say it is a question mark is fair. To say that there is no proof that it is as good as last year is fair. To say that are pen is in shambles is also a stretch. I would say that our pen is a question mark. At this point we don't even know who is going to in our pen. Melancon and Bailey are obviously going to be key for us. You also have to think about Bard and Aceves, if we lose both of them to the rotation, then our pen is going to weaker than last year without a doubt. If one of Bard or Aceves can stay in the pen, then we have a decent 7th inning guy, set-up man, and closer. If both can stay in the pen, then that will be a bonus. I am not saying our pen is better or worse than last year, because that cannot be concluded at this point. We will know more after this Spring when our roster is finalized. I think it is also a stretch to say our offense is declining. There may be a little dropoff in some areas, but where there is a dropoff, there may be some improvement in others. If Crawford and Youk can have improved seasons, our offense will be perfectly fine. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Scutaro had good years last year. I don't expect there to be a huge dropoff there. With Crawford and Youk adding good offense, that gives us potentially seven reliable offensive contributors. RF is not set in stone and I don't expect much offensively at C with Shoppach and Salty. If Aviles is a person that is capable of platooning with Sweeney in RF, our offensive production in RF will likely increase some over last year.

 

You are talking about us not being able to compete the next couple of years. You are talking about us rebuilding and not being able to compete until 2017. You cannot make either of those assessments. We have Lavarnway who is major league ready offensively. Middlebrooks will be ready to take over 3B in the next couple of years. Iglesias may be able to become our future SS in the next couple years (if he improves his bat). Kalish will hopefully overcome his injuries and might be ready to have an impact in RF later this season. There are four guys that are close to ready to compete for us in the majors. Lavarnway can hopefully be able to be in the majors full time in 2013, Middlebrooks isn't too far from that, Kalish can hopefully help us out in 2012, Iglesias isn't far behind either. We also have guys like Bogaerts if Iglesias doesn't pan out. We have Wilson, Ranaudo, Barnes, Britton, Pimentel, etc. as starting pitchers in the minors who could develop into decent starting pitchers for us in the next few years. We have a lot of young prospects with talent. I think your perspective is a little off and you are being too pessimistic about this team. Before you jump to the conclusions you are, at least wait until Spring Training is over and the roster is finalized.

 

the majority of posters on this board think the bullpen and rotation are worse than last year, which if they are I would imagine that would costs us around 8-10 wins which puts around 81 wins off of last years record. Personally, I think just the fact that Lackey is not pitching is an upgrade and a backend of pen Melancon,Aceves, and Bailey will be fine.

[redsoxfan3]

I still am convinced that either Kuroda, Oswalt or Jackson is coming to the Red Sox, although most likely Kuroda. I would argue that with one of those three guys, this team gets a significant boost over last year's pitching. Losing Bard from the bullpen hurts... but he lost nine games last year. Nine. He's a quality player, but he hurt the team more than he helped it last year-- especially in September. Losing Papelbon hurt, but I'm not sure that Ben is done with the bullpen either.

 

Even if one of Lester/Beckett/Buchholz gets hurt this year, adding one of K/O/J will definitely help a lot. If we get lucky, and all four are healthy, that rotation will be beastly. Plus, between Aceves/Bard/Doubront/Dice-k/Wilson, I think one of them will come out as a quality #4 pitcher. The #5 spot is a crapshoot, but I would argue that Ben is working on making sure that this team has enough depth to withstand a s***-storm this year.

 

I agree with you. I am convinced we are going to get another SP. Although, I don't think we will get Jackson because he wants a muliyear contract. Kuroda, Oswalt, and Saunders have all been linked to potential one year deals. I believe it is possible that we get one of the three. With the Kuroda talks a couple of days ago, it leads me to believe that we might be very close to working something out with him. So I agree with you in saying that it will most likely be Kuroda. I don't think that Ben is even close to being done. There are I believe about 5 weeks still until Spring Training starts. There is a lot of time left. Good post, you have some legit points. We will definitely have the ability to have an abundance of pitchers to choose from (Miller, Silva, Cook, Padilla, Carlson, Doubront, Dice-K midseason, etc.) if we need someone to fill in.

 

Yeah he's been pretty ardently defending the team for some time. However, you raise some valid points. @rsf3

 

As Elktonnick said a couple posts back, this team played worse baseball as a whole than the sum of its parts. The changes of non-playing personnel should be enough to significantly improve the team even if they don't sign a solid #4.

 

That makes sense. I do think we can make the playoffs as a wildcard even if we do not sign a solid #4, although it would be a huge addition if we did. Harden and Colon are still interesting free agents.

 

Another question. We have talked a lot about starting pitchers, who is still out there that you guys think could be a good addition to the bullpen? I have a few names that come to mind, but I want to hear different opinions.

[a700hitter]

Thank you. So' date=' with Padilla's deal, that makes it at least 14 minor league contracts that we have made recently. That is at least 5.6 million in minor league deals that we have dished out (assuming that they are all guaranteed the league minimum of 400K). I know some of the signings are necessary, but in my opinion that money could have went into a more reliable starter. 5.6 million is basically half of what we could probably get for Oswalt. I am still not sure what Kuroda's one year asking price would be. I remember reading $13 million somewhere. I am still not sure what Saunders asking price is. It is at least an interesting thought to me.[/quote']I thought that Cook's deal was for $1.5 million.

[User Name]

Correction: It's a prorated 1.5 million IF Cook is called up to the MLB team.

 

The deal is worth $1.5MM prorated if Cook is called up to the Major Leagues, according to Rob Bradford and Alex Speier of WEEI.com.

 

Someone quote me so "The King" can see it.

[a700hitter]

you've converted me' date=' I agree with everything you said, and plus you can add that Ellsbury will not come close to next year's numbers, scutaro also will probaly not either. I also don't think Gonzales will hit for as high average as he did last year, and Ortiz will have significant drop off in production. Youkilis will be lucky to stay healthy for 300 abs the way his last 2 years have gone, and the worse part of this is there nobody close in the minors ready to contribute. The closer I look at, it will be probaly be a couple of years until we become competitive, well at least until Lackey and Beckett come off the books, and by that time Ellsbury will be gone via free agency(no way he signs back with Boston). So if we can deal with a couple of dismal years and start rebuilding 2015, we should be competitive by 2017. I would be shocked if we won 81 games this year, the rotation is horrofic, the pen is in shambles, and the offense is on the decline.[/quote']A big jerk at 51 posts.

[Palodios]

Correction: It's a prorated 1.5 million IF Cook is called up to the MLB team.

 

 

 

Someone quote me so "The King" can see it.

 

Hey King...

[win red sox]

I still am convinced that either Kuroda, Oswalt or Jackson is coming to the Red Sox, although most likely Kuroda. I would argue that with one of those three guys, this team gets a significant boost over last year's pitching. Losing Bard from the bullpen hurts... but he lost nine games last year. Nine. He's a quality player, but he hurt the team more than he helped it last year-- especially in September. Losing Papelbon hurt, but I'm not sure that Ben is done with the bullpen either.

 

Even if one of Lester/Beckett/Buchholz gets hurt this year, adding one of K/O/J will definitely help a lot. If we get lucky, and all four are healthy, that rotation will be beastly. Plus, between Aceves/Bard/Doubront/Dice-k/Wilson, I think one of them will come out as a quality #4 pitcher. The #5 spot is a crapshoot, but I would argue that Ben is working on making sure that this team has enough depth to withstand a s***-storm this year.

 

agreed, I think the Yankees sign one them(hopefully Jackson), and one of the other 2 fall to us. I prefer Kuroda due to Oswalts back injuries

[User Name]

Hey win red sox, you're fine in my book!

[a700hitter]

Bard was walking 9 per 9 IP when he had those numbers. He was also 21 years old. In each of his last 3 seasons, his BB/9 has decreased.

 

In his career, he has allowed a .582 OPS against him. Do you really think that after seeing Bard an extra 1-2 times, hitters are going to be able to bump that 300 points and OPS .880 off of him like they did Lackey?

 

Call me overly optimistic, but I just really do not see it happening. I think he'll have a season very similar to Alexi Ogando last year. About 170-180 IP. First half, domination. Second half, the innings start to catch up to him.

 

Overall, probably a 13-14 win, 3.50 ERA season.

And what about Aceves in the 4 spot? And what will the bullpen be like without Papelbon, Bard and Aceves? Do you see a decrease in the pen or are you also optimistic about Albers, Melancon and Bailey?

[win red sox]

A big jerk at 51 posts.

 

nice, so you don't agree with 81 wins, or what don't you exactly agree with?

[a700hitter]

I still am convinced that either Kuroda' date=' Oswalt or Jackson is coming to the Red Sox, although most likely Kuroda.[/b'] I would argue that with one of those three guys, this team gets a significant boost over last year's pitching. Losing Bard from the bullpen hurts... but he lost nine games last year. Nine. He's a quality player, but he hurt the team more than he helped it last year-- especially in September. Losing Papelbon hurt, but I'm not sure that Ben is done with the bullpen either.

 

Even if one of Lester/Beckett/Buchholz gets hurt this year, adding one of K/O/J will definitely help a lot. If we get lucky, and all four are healthy, that rotation will be beastly. Plus, between Aceves/Bard/Doubront/Dice-k/Wilson, I think one of them will come out as a quality #4 pitcher. The #5 spot is a crapshoot, but I would argue that Ben is working on making sure that this team has enough depth to withstand a s***-storm this year.

getting one of those guy would greatly strengthen the rotation and the bullpen. It is what we are all hoping for.

[win red sox]

Hey win red sox' date=' you're fine in my book! [/quote']

 

thanks, I tried the "the cup is half empty" for a couple of posts, but it doesn't fit me. It looks like I'll stand out from the Majority on this board.

[a700hitter]

agreed' date=' I think the Yankees sign one them(hopefully Jackson), and one of the other 2 fall to us. I prefer Kuroda due to Oswalts back injuries[/quote']Why do you think we need a pitcher if you think the 2012 pitching is already improved over last year? We only needed one more win last year. Why over-kill?

[win red sox]

Why do you think we need a pitcher if you think the 2012 pitching is already improved over last year? We only needed one more win last year. Why over-kill?

 

there is no such thing as too much starting pitching.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And what about Aceves in the 4 spot? And what will the bullpen be like without Papelbon' date=' Bard and Aceves? Do you see a decrease in the pen or are you also optimistic about Albers, Melancon and Bailey?[/quote']

 

I think Aceves will probably throw around 170-180 IP and will post around a 3.85 ERA, so I think he'll do just fine.

 

As for our pen, I am thrilled with Bailey. I think he's an elite closer. 174 IP to a 2.07 ERA. And it's not just a factor of Oakland. He's got a career 1.96 ERA in away games.

 

Look at these stats

 

In the format of Bailey ERA/Papelbon ERA

 

Vs. TB: 1.50/2.01

Vs. TOR: 0.00 (10.1 IP)/1.72

Vs. BAL: 1.74/2.23

Vs. NYY: 3.27/3.86

 

I think Bailey will do extremely well in Boston, and I really don't think the Sox will see a dropoff in production.

 

I think the overall bullpen will be about the same as it was last year. Around a 3.7 ERA.

[a700hitter]

there is no such thing as too much starting pitching.

That, we can agree on.

[a700hitter]

I think Aceves will probably throw around 170-180 IP and will post around a 3.85 ERA, so I think he'll do just fine.

 

As for our pen, I am thrilled with Bailey. I think he's an elite closer. 174 IP to a 2.07 ERA. And it's not just a factor of Oakland. He's got a career 1.96 ERA in away games.

 

Look at these stats

 

In the format of Bailey ERA/Papelbon ERA

 

Vs. TB: 1.50/2.01

Vs. TOR: 0.00 (10.1 IP)/1.72

Vs. BAL: 1.74/2.23

Vs. NYY: 3.27/3.86

 

I think Bailey will do extremely well in Boston, and I really don't think the Sox will see a dropoff in production.

 

I think the overall bullpen will be about the same as it was last year. Around a 3.7 ERA.

I love Bailey's stuff, but I hate the recurring elbow issues and that can't go more than 40 innings. I don't see Albers and Melancon replacing Aceves and Bard.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Having said that, I think we need 1 more solid SP and move Aceves, or possibly Bard, back to the bullpen. Although I think Bard would make a better SP than Aceves.

[a700hitter]

Having said that' date=' I think we need 1 more solid SP and move Aceves, or possibly Bard, back to the bullpen. Although I think Bard would make a better SP than Aceves.[/quote']^ Me too. That would be the ideal situation. We need Ben Cher to cooperate.

[win red sox]

getting one of those guy would greatly strengthen the rotation and the bullpen. It is what we are all hoping for.

 

I imagine a rotation and pen with the aquisition of Kuroda would look something like this

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Kuroda

Doubrant

 

Bailey

Bard

Aceves

Melancon

Morales

Albers

Miller/Jenks/Bowden/Atchinson

 

I thinks also that Zumaya or Harden would be excellent acquisitions if we could get both of them on incentive laden contracts.

 

a700 would this be an improvement on last years rotation and pen?

[FredLynn]

Having said that' date=' I think we need 1 more solid SP and move Aceves, or possibly Bard, back to the bullpen. Although I think Bard would make a better SP than Aceves.[/quote']

 

Probably true, but I don't think Bard will be able to pitch as many innings.

To be able to compete we need a decent #4 SP and one more good arm for the pen (Wheeler would be fine).

[Palodios]

getting one of those guy would greatly strengthen the rotation and the bullpen. It is what we are all hoping for.

 

If the Red Sox don't get another starting pitcher, I will join you in the "let's all panic!!!!" crowd. Seriously, it is a huge need, and I just can't seriously think they spent 20 mill this offseason, and completely disregarded what they simply could not do without.