2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jung]

To extend on 700's point the problem with the "let somebody sink to the bottom and get him cheap" approach is as I have identified it before, I think you just end up paying more money for someone that would not be better than Bard. However I have a feeling that is what they are doing.

 

As for Madson, I think they will get better than 3/33 from somebody. I can't remember now what the Phils had on the table for him before that deal blew up. Was it 4/44 I think??? 3/33 would be way less than 4/44 and obviously less than 4/50.

[User Name]

Who? Pretty much everyone that needed a closer except the Twins already has one, and you can be certain the Twins aren't paying 11 mill + per year for Madson.

[User Name]

The difference would be 1 yr and $17 mil guaranteed. If Papelbon gets the option to vest' date=' then the Phillies will be happy campers. The fact is, that Papelbon is as proven a commodity as it gets in this market, he's a WS champ, and he's been closing for longer in a tougher division. It's penny wise and pound foolish[/quote']

 

If he gets injured and/or is innefective, or let's say "mediocre" he then that one year and 17 million look huge. And even worse if he declines and somehow the option vests.

 

Also, we don't know if they'll simply go with Bard and get a couple set-up arms.

[a700hitter]

Madson and Papelbon might be pitching in the same league in 2012, but they are not in the same class. 4/44 for Madson would be a ridiculous contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

If he gets injured and/or is innefective, or let's say "mediocre" he then that one year and 17 million look huge. And even worse if he declines and somehow the option vests.

 

Also, we don't know if they'll simply go with Bard and get a couple set-up arms.

 

I think you have a bigger risk, actually en enormously bigger risk with Madson at big money compared to Paps at bigger money

[iortiz]

I said this when Paps signed. If they give a big money deal to Madson then they're idiots

 

Agree, in the worst scenario is likely you were committing/risking only 1 season, assuming Pap performs terrible 1 season and the other guy puts something around Pap's career numbers during his tenure. (Unlikely to me)

 

Where is the risk more likely? on Pap or on this guy? IMO, on the other guy, he has not proved s*** in your environment.

 

Again, Papelbon is already proved in your environment, is not injury prone, he is mature (not old, still young, experienced) and as I said, he has arguably been driving at Mo's highway (career).

 

Hell, how much money have they wasted at FA? 1/4 BUSD?... and you will skimp and substitute your best piece in BP for this? and mostly, at this price?.

 

As I said, You would be saving cents and spending dollars if this guy or other at this price (+-35/3) fails.

 

They'd better put Bard, if the money was the driver (let Pap walks), otherwise I wouldn't get it.

[jung]

The one other team I thought could be a spot for Madson would be Miami but he has already declined on Miami. I would have thought Miami would have offered 3/33 for him though so I don't know what he has declined from Miami. I wonder if that 4 years from Philly is stuck in his craw. Again I thought Miami would have worked a deal for him.

 

You are right 700 4/44 is stupid money for Madson....likely why Phils owner threw up his hands (so the story goes) and told his GM he was nuts if he thought he was going to sign that contract.

[a700hitter]

Agree, in the worst scenario is likely you were committing/risking only 1 season, assuming Pap performs terrible 1 season and the other guy put something around Pap's career numbers during his tenure. (Unlikely to me)

 

Where is the risk more likely? on Pap or on this guy? IMO, on the other guy, he has not proved s*** in your environment.

 

Again, Papelbon is already proved in your environment, is not injury prone, he is mature (not old, experienced) and as I said, he has arhuably been driving at Mo's highway (career).

 

Hell, how much money have they wasted at FA? 1/4 BUSD?... and you will skimp and substitute your best piece in BP for this? and mostly, at this price? I wouldn't get it.

 

As I said, You would be saving cents and spending dollars if this guy or other at this price (+-35/3) fail.

 

They'd better put Bard, if the money was the driver (let Pap walks).

It seems that the relievers are getting a premium price this offseason. Look at the 3 year contract with an option and he is already 34 years old. Earth to Ben, there are no bargains. There are long shots, but they carry a high risk of failure. Good pitchers on the open market don't decide to take a lot less than they are worth. They have agents who know their value.

[User Name]

I think you have a bigger risk' date=' actually en enormously bigger risk with Madson at big money compared to Paps at bigger money[/quote']

 

Madson is not signed. And even if he was signed, it all depends on the length/money of the contract. So far this is just speculation.

[a700hitter]

The Mets are strapped for cash, but they need a closer. Parnell doesn't have what it takes.

[jung]

Initially I thought Madson would want to string Boras up by the fingers for not being able to complete the deal with Philly but maybe both of them are suffering from unrealistic expectations for what teams will pay for him. I thought Miami was still in the running and I am a bit surprised that they declined on Miami after the Philly experience.

 

How many deals are they going to screw and how many teams do they are out there that pay big money for closers. There are many teams that go the "bring the guy up the organization" route for closer. Take them completely out of the running.

[a700hitter]

Do the Cubs still have Marmol as their closer? They could be in the market for Madson. They have the money. Theo has been spending money in recent years like a drunk sailor on shore leave.

[iortiz]

It seems that the relievers are getting a premium price this offseason. Look at the 3 year contract with an option and he is already 34 years old. Earth to Ben' date=' there are no bargains. There are long shots, but they carry a high risk of failure. Good pitchers on the open market don't decide to take a lot less than they are worth. They have agents who know their value.[/quote']

 

Exactly.

 

As I said, I won't be surprised if top relievers and mostly elite closers start making this kind of contracts in the coming seasons. The closer position IMO is becoming a speciality. Just as life, elite specialities are hard to get, and are expensive.

[User Name]

Poor horse. Keeps getting beaten even though it's beyond dead.

[iortiz]

Do the Cubs still have Marmol as their closer? They could be in the market for Madson. They have the money. Theo has been spending money in recent years like a drunk sailor on shore leave.

 

 

Hell, I would like to know how does it feel.

[Meh]

Who? Pretty much everyone that needed a closer except the Twins already has one' date=' and you can be certain the Twins aren't paying 11 mill + per year for Madson.[/quote']

 

What? Jays. Angels(looking into Madson), Reds, Red Sox, Twins, Padres, Mariners and Mets need closers. Maybe the Cards? I'm not sure who theyre closer is. A lot of people need set up help as well. I think thats where guys like Dotel and Raunch will fit in.

[User Name]

The WS champion Cards have a closer who was very effective during the playoffs, the Jays are looking for reclamation projects or a cheap option, the Angels have Walden, the Reds are looking at internal options, and the Twins and Padres don't have the money.

[Meh]

The WS champion Cards have a closer who was very effective during the playoffs' date=' the Jays are looking for reclamation projects or a cheap option, the Angels have Walden, the Reds are looking at internal options, and the Twins and Padres don't have the money.[/quote']

 

Hmm well idk who said the Twins don't have money. I forgot about Motte. Jays were looking at Madsen same with the Angels...

[User Name]

Hmm well idk who said the Twins don't have money. I forgot about Motte. Jays were looking at Madsen same with the Angels...

 

The Twins themselves. Several sources have said they're looking for a closer on the cheap after losing out on Nathan. The Angels have a closer, so i don't see how those rumors hold water. The Jays may be "looking" but do you really think they'll be big players for a high-priced closer with all the holes they have?

 

Realistically, the Sox can pick and choose a closer at their price. Won't be as good as Paps but should represent lower risk in years and dollars.

[Meh]

Twins have had their payroll around 90 to 110 million. It's 70 right now and liriano is basically their only big raise coming up. They have a new ballpark, I believe it just opened up in 2011(this year) so they could go out and sign a Cordero or K-Rod. Their bullpen blows, they've got solid SP and is the M&M boys come back then they have a chance. I mean if you want Cordero at a lower price then by all means thats fine, but you're not going to be able to sign Madson on your own terms which is what I'm thinking you're getting at since the rest of the lot isn't that great.

[User Name]

Twins have had their payroll around 90 to 110 million. It's 70 right now and liriano is basically their only big raise coming up. They have a new ballpark' date=' I believe it just opened up in 2011(this year) so they could go out and sign a Cordero or K-Rod. Their bullpen blows, they've got solid SP and is the M&M boys come back then they have a chance.[/quote']

 

You do know the Twins don't have a LF, RF, DH SS, and that because their bullpen blows, they need other arms besides the closer?

 

Give me a scenario where they pay 10+ for a closer and fix all their holes.

 

Also, getting Madson on their own terms is not what i'm getting at. I'm saying that they will be able to get him (or another closer) at market value instead of having to overpay because the availability is much less than the demand.

[Meh]

You do know the Twins don't have a LF, RF, DH SS, and that because their bullpen blows, they need other arms besides the closer?

 

Give me a scenario where they pay 10+ for a closer and fix all their holes.

 

Also, getting Madson on their own terms is not what i'm getting at. I'm saying that they will be able to get him (or another closer) at market value instead of having to overpay because the availability is much less than the demand.

 

Span in LF? I don't see why this guy gets so much hate.

I thought that guy who broke his leg was there SS, he's from Japan.

They can't plug the DH spot with Mauer there, he'll need a lot of time there. If anything they need to get a backup catcher and it seems theres a ton of them out there right now.

[User Name]

Span in LF? I don't see why this guy gets so much hate.

I thought that guy who broke his leg was there SS, he's from Japan.

They can't plug the DH spot with Mauer there, he'll need a lot of time there. If anything they need to get a backup catcher and it seems theres a ton of them out there right now.

 

They got a backup catcher in Ryan Doumit (3 mill), and i didn't list Span as the LF, because they'll probably try him in CF next year and find a couple of COF's with power. And they don't need to completely plug the DH position, but they need a good hitter for the spot who can play another position. The Twins have a lot of work for this off-season.

 

For SS, you mean Nishioka, but it's likely he'll move to 2B with Casilla becoming a super-sub. Could be the other way around, but they do need a MIF.

[jung]

The fact that so many closers are nameless is the in point in some ways. Many teams have very serviceable closers that they don't pay big money...they follow some version of what the Bard approach would be if we let Bard close.

 

I will be interesting to see what happens with Madson regardless of whether it is the Sox or some other team.

[Palodios]

I can't believe all the people who believe the Red Sox will give Madson a big deal. He will make no more than 3/30, 2/24 from the Red Sox-- and even those numbers are generous. Call them stupid for letting Papelbon go all you want, but they're not going to spend a similar amount of money on a significantly lesser player.

[Elktonnick]

I can't believe all the people who believe the Red Sox will give Madson a big deal. He will make no more than 3/30' date=' 2/24 from the Red Sox-- and even those numbers are generous. Call them stupid for letting Papelbon go all you want, but they're not going to spend a similar amount of money on a significantly lesser player.[/quote']

 

I don't think they let Paplebon go as much as Paplebon never really wanted to stay. The phillies offer just made it quicker.

[a700hitter]

I can't believe all the people who believe the Red Sox will give Madson a big deal. He will make no more than 3/30' date=' 2/24 from the Red Sox-- and even those numbers are generous. Call them stupid for letting Papelbon go all you want, but they're not going to spend a similar amount of money on a significantly lesser player.[/quote']No one is saying that they will spend big dough on an inferior pitcher. We are saying that it would be stupid to do so. The harsh reality is that there may be no bargains to be had.

[WhiskeyBreath]

I don't think they let Paplebon go as much as Paplebon never really wanted to stay. The phillies offer just made it quicker.

 

Disagree. It's clear Boston never had any intention of spending the big dollars on Papelbon.

[a700hitter]

I don't think they let Paplebon go as much as Paplebon never really wanted to stay. The phillies offer just made it quicker.

Your theory is that he hated Boston... that he had such a burning love for the city of love, Philadelphia? It's not like Philly is so much more convenient for him to visit his home town. What is your theory on his burning desire to get out of Boston? If he hated the manager, he's gone. If he hated the GM, he's gone. The theory that he just wanted out makes no sense to me. What makes sense is that Boston didn't want to pay him the long term contract and they made it known to him early on. There is not one press report that they attempted to contact Papelbon or his agent about his future with the team. If they had any interest, they would have picked up the phone just to keep the lines of communication open.

[mvp 78]

He didn't "love" Philly. He liked the big payday and wanted to get out of Dodge.