2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Never said they were stupid. I just maintain that Paps never was going to sign with the Red Sox when all the factors were coinsidered

The only factor the Sox were considering was $. They knew what he could and did get, an they weren't willing to pay it.

[iortiz]

That's the thing... if the Red Sox give Madson the 4th year' date=' it is a huge mistake[/b']. They simply cannot give him the 4th year without it being a bad deal. But if they pay 3/30 or 2/24(no option), they are guaranteeing him HALF of what Papelbon is receiving right out of the gate, and maybe less if Papelbon's option vests. Two Madsons is definitely worth more than the price of one Papelbon.

 

If we sign Madson for a large contract' date=' in order to pat ourselves on the back we would also have to assume that the Phillies are stupid. They are not.[/quote']

 

Exactly.

 

Pal, IYO, assuming that this guy is asking this kind of deal 30/3, why didn't Philly take this? What did they see on him that made 'em turn around quickly and even sign a guy like Pap for the double of that contract?, after all, and quoting some people around here, Pap is just another reliever, isn't he? what did they miss?

 

Are the Philadelphia Phillys that stupid? Should we consider/treat Pap as another reliever? Or should we have treated him more like Mo? Mostly since the structure and the eviorement is supposed to improve moving forward, isn't it?

 

Are the Boston Red Sox that smart? Or simply have another strategy to fill this hole, beyond the money. As you said, I will be shocked if they sign Madson for a large contract.

[Elktonnick]

The only factor the Sox were considering was $. They knew what he could and did get' date=' an they weren't willing to pay it.[/quote']

 

I think that was what I said originally.

[iortiz]

I think that was what I said originally.

 

I guess they didn't resign him because they already had options/strategy to fill that hole, sure plus saving that money; but it doesn't mean that he doesn't deserve that contract. Hell, he's asking -17% per year less than Mo after all, regardless he is 10 years younger or something, proved in this market, mature, with great career numbers, etc. The arguments that I've read on this regard is that this contract has a lot of risks based on other relievers records which btw are not comparable (quality, division, age, position, numbers, injury prone, years of service, etc.), and not based on his own track record and parameters (qualitative and quantitative). He is a 2.3 ERA career closer after all.

 

A solid organization like the Philadelphia Phillies thinks that he worths that kind of contract, making some of us be a little bit more confident in our arguments and maybe, and just maybe make us reconsider that we are not that crazy after all.

[Elktonnick]

I guess they didn't resign him because they already had options/strategy to fill that hole, sure plus saving that money; but it doesn't mean that he doesn't deserve that contract. Hell, he's asking -17% per year less than Mo after all, regardless he is 10 years younger or something, proved in this market, mature, with great career numbers, etc. The arguments that I've read on this regard is that this contract has a lot of risks based on other relievers which btw are not comparable (quality, division, age, position, numbers, injury prone, years of service, etc.), and not based in his own track record and parameters (qualitative and quantitative). He is a career 2.3 ERA after all.

 

A solid organization like the Philadelphia Phillies thinks that he worths that kind of contract, making some of us be a little bit more confident in our arguments and maybe, and just maybe make us reconsider that we are not that crazy after all.

 

Quite frankly I think it was several factors not the least of which there are numerous closer options out there this year. If you aren't going to re-sign your closer then his was the year. Even more so since there is always the Bard option( who may not be a closer) I also believe there is something else unsaid like attitude that may have played a part, also.

[jung]

While they are a solid organization. again it is circumstances and each team's situation that make for major differences from one team to the next and that often drives their decision making process.

 

The Phils have a new ball park and based on the team they had going into the offseason and its performance last year, they feel like they are only a couple of key signings away from going all the way. The Phils have not had quite the nuclear explosion of negative big FA signings the Sox have had lately either.

 

While the Sox are going to have a very good team in 2012 I do not think they are in the same competitive or market based situation that the Phils are in. For example the Phils have looked like they were going to bust the LT cap all along this off season and they are sure to do it. Whether the Sox do it or not has been a matter of conjecture and while I now think they will, it is still a matter of conjecture.

 

There are really not that many candidate teams in the MLB when it comes to spending big money on closers. In fact it is not even like a classic car auction which generally requires at least two interested buyers in the room to bump the price of the car. Heck the Phils were basically competing with themselves but gave Paps what he wanted in order to get him.

 

Also as Elk has said, the FA market for closers this year is favorable to the path the Sox appear to want to go down with regard to closers. They may get what they want, they may not but this is certainly a year that looks ripe for doing what they appear to want to do....all the way up to having a guy in their own organization that may well be ready to get his shot.

[iortiz]

While they are a solid organization. again it is circumstances and each team's situation that make for major differences from one team to the next and that often drives their decision making process.

 

Agree. Reason why I think that each team has their own plan in order to move forward and not because Pap doesn't deserve or worth that contract.

 

The Phils have a new ball park and based on the team they had going into the offseason and its performance last year, they feel like they are only a couple of key signings away from going all the way. The Phils have not had quite the nuclear explosion of negative big FA signings the Sox have had lately either.

 

This is why I think they are a solid Organization. IMO and from and Outside-In view They seem to have a solid structure (governance, risk and compliance procedures), discipline, and talent at their top management, specially when they execute at FA.

[iortiz]

Quite frankly I think it was several factors not the least of which there are numerous closer options out there this year. If you aren't going to re-sign your closer then his was the year. Even more so since there is always the Bard option( who may not be a closer) I also believe there is something else unsaid like attitude that may have played a part' date=' also.[/quote']

 

Yup maybe.

 

But as you and A700 said, the driver was more likely the money based on the sportive/business conditions that each team already had.

[User Name]

Papelbon is not worth 50 million. No reliever is worth 50 million. Beat that dead horse all you want, but the Phillies overpaid substantially and they know it. That doesn't mean they're stupid, it just means they're in win-now mode and were willing to overpay to get their man, like the Sox have done so many times before. The fact that with all the bad contracts they have they weren't willing to get into another one is the result of the current set of circumstances.

[a700hitter]

Quite frankly I think it was several factors not the least of which there are numerous closer options out there this year. If you aren't going to re-sign your closer then his was the year. Even more so since there is always the Bard option( who may not be a closer) I also believe there is something else unsaid like attitude that may have played a part' date=' also.[/quote']I think the Red Sox made the decision to go for a cheaper less talented bullpen piece than Papelbon. Unless they make improvements in the remainder of the bullpen to make up for what they will be losing in swapping out paps for let's say Madson, the bullpen will not be as good as last year. Theo always had trouble building a bullpen. Hopefully, BC is more skilled at it.

[a700hitter]

While they are a solid organization. again it is circumstances and each team's situation that make for major differences from one team to the next and that often drives their decision making process.

 

The Phils have a new ball park and based on the team they had going into the offseason and its performance last year, they feel like they are only a couple of key signings away from going all the way. The Phils have not had quite the nuclear explosion of negative big FA signings the Sox have had lately either.

While the Sox are going to have a very good team in 2012 I do not think they are in the same competitive or market based situation that the Phils are in. For example the Phils have looked like they were going to bust the LT cap all along this off season and they are sure to do it. Whether the Sox do it or not has been a matter of conjecture and while I now think they will, it is still a matter of conjecture.

 

There are really not that many candidate teams in the MLB when it comes to spending big money on closers. In fact it is not even like a classic car auction which generally requires at least two interested buyers in the room to bump the price of the car. Heck the Phils were basically competing with themselves but gave Paps what he wanted in order to get him.

 

Also as Elk has said, the FA market for closers this year is favorable to the path the Sox appear to want to go down with regard to closers. They may get what they want, they may not but this is certainly a year that looks ripe for doing what they appear to want to do....all the way up to having a guy in their own organization that may well be ready to get his shot.

Going into Spring Training 2011, many thought that the Sox were the team to beat. They are essentially the same team without Lackey and Dice K, which I view as addition by subtraction. Going into this off season, it could be argued that the Sox were 1 or 2 moves from returning to prominence. Losing Papelbon was a big step back in that regard. Obviously, the huge financial mess left by Theo's spending left the Sox in a position where they couldn't re-sign Papelbon and make those 1 or 2 moves to get back on top.

[Elktonnick]

Going into Spring Training 2011' date=' many thought that the Sox were the team to beat. They are essentially the same team without Lackey and Dice K, which I view as addition by subtraction. Going into this off season, it could be argued that the Sox were 1 or 2 moves from returning to prominence. Losing Papelbon was a big step back in that regard. Obviously, the huge financial mess left by Theo's spending left the Sox in a position where they couldn't re-sign Papelbon and make those 1 or 2 moves to get back on top.[/quote']

 

I don't think that the Red Sox think filling Paplebon's role will be as difficult as you make it out to be. Regardless he is gone.

[User Name]

I don't think that the Red Sox think filling Paplebon's role will be as difficult as you make it out to be. Regardless he is gone.

 

Have you seen the closers for some of the teams that have won the WS this decade? Braden Looper, a broken down Jason Ishringhausen, Jason Motte, a rookie K-Rod and Bobby Jenks, Byung-Hyum Kim.

 

The "Papelbon is gone and he's impossible to replace" rhetoric needs to stop.

[a700hitter]

I don't think that the Red Sox think filling Paplebon's role will be as difficult as you make it out to be. Regardless he is gone.

Tell me who is a FA who is better than Papelbon. Give me any name on any roster that is better than Papelbon who can be obtained without giving up a king's ransom in prospects. People who view Bard as Papelbon's replacement are making a huge mistake. Bard may be a great closer, and I think will be very good, maybe even as good or better than Papelbon. He is not Papelbon's replacement, because we already had Bard. Moving Bard to closer doesn't fill the closer's spot. It opens up a huge hole in the 7th/8th inning spot.

[Elktonnick]

Tell me who is a FA who is better than Papelbon. Give me any name on any roster that is better than Papelbon who can be obtained without giving up a king's ransom in prospects. People who view Bard as Papelbon's replacement are making a huge mistake. Bard may be a great closer' date=' and I think will be very good, maybe even as good or better than Papelbon. He is not Papelbon's replacement, because we already had Bard. Moving Bard to closer doesn't fill the closer's spot. It opens up a huge hole in the 7th/8th inning spot.[/quote']

 

look there is no sense pining over Paps he is no longer here. That ship has sailed. They'll fill his role with who is on the market. And he'll do. I don't think Bard is a closer but he is an option.

[a700hitter]

look there is no sense pining over Paps he is no longer here. That ship has sailed. They'll fill his role with who is on the market. And he'll do. I don't think Bard is a closer but he is an option.

Yes the ship has sailed, but we need a new ship, either in the 8th inning or the 9th inning. I'm not seeing anything that is available that isn't going to make me pine for Bard/Papelbon in the 8th and 9th.

 

Edit: Moving on from a player with some plan to regain what has been lost or to get better is something I like to see, but I am not seeing the possibility for improvement as a result here, not even the possibility for being as good as we were before.

[iortiz]

Tell me who is a FA who is better than Papelbon. Give me any name on any roster that is better than Papelbon who can be obtained without giving up a king's ransom in prospects. People who view Bard as Papelbon's replacement are making a huge mistake. Bard may be a great closer' date=' and I think will be very good, maybe even as good or better than Papelbon. He is not Papelbon's replacement, because we already had Bard. Moving Bard to closer doesn't fill the closer's spot. It opens up a huge hole in the 7th/8th inning spot.[/quote']

 

People tend to put Bard's numbers in order to support this 'Bard is even better than Paps' theory. They are missing a little thing, those numbers are not as CLOSER. In fact, sometimes when he was under situations that involved a lot of pressuere and tension most of the times, he couldn't handle it. I dont know you, but I have several flash-backs of this. In order to be a closer, you need nerves of steel, you born with those. If you don't have the balls, you are not the adequate for the shut down position. This natural born profile is not easy to find and grab out there. Reason why I believe you just can not treat Pap like another 'reliever', regardless his elite track record.

 

I agree, Bard probably will be a great closer, maybe better than Pap, who knows. IMO he is not ready. His gap to be a closer is not about mechanics, his gap is in his mind in order to handle the pressure. He needs to work with his mind which in my opinion is harder to work with than a physical/technical issue.

 

On the other hand if they decided to let Pap walk, they would give Bard a shot for once and for all, and bring more BP arms, specially a solid set up guy.

[a700hitter]

People tend to put Bard's numbers in order to support this 'Bard is even better than Paps' theory. They are missing a little thing, those numbers are not as CLOSER. In fact, sometimes when he was under situations that involved a lot of pressuere and tension most of the times, he couldn't handle it. I dont know you, but I have several flash-backs of this. In order to be a closer, you need nerves of steel, you born with those. If you don't have the balls, you are not the adequate for the shut down position. This natural born profile is not easy to find and grab out there. Reason why I believe you just can not treat Pap like another 'reliever', regardless his elite track record.

 

I agree, Bard probably will be a great closer, maybe better than Pap, who knows. IMO he is not ready. His gap to be a closer is not about mechanics, his gap is in his mind in order to handle the pressure. He needs to work with his mind which in my opinion is harder to work with than a physical/technical issue.

 

On the other hand if they decided to let Pap walk, they would give Bard a shot for once and for all, and bring more BP arms, specially a solid set up guy.

Totally agree. If Papelbon had stayed, we would still have benefited from Bard's great numbers in a role that he was comfortable in.

[Elktonnick]

Yes the ship has sailed, but we need a new ship, either in the 8th inning or the 9th inning. I'm not seeing anything that is available that isn't going to make me pine for Bard/Papelbon in the 8th and 9th.

 

Edit: Moving on from a player with some plan to regain what has been lost or to get better is something I like to see, but I am not seeing the possibility for improvement as a result here, not even the possibility for being as good as we were before.

 

you'll get over it.

[iortiz]

Totally agree. If Papelbon had stayed' date=' we would still have benefited from Bard's great numbers in a role that he was comfortable in.[/quote']

 

Yup.

 

Damn! we already arguably had the best shut down pack in league.

[a700hitter]

you'll get over it.

I don't think that I will enjoy fighting Toronto for third place.

[Elktonnick]

I don't think that I will enjoy fighting Toronto for third place.

 

Every one in the ALE is fighting Toronto for third place IMHO

[a700hitter]

Every one in the ALE is fighting Toronto for third place IMHO

I should take up golf this baseball season.

[a700hitter]

Tim Wakefield would like to pitch one more year with the Red Sox, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The free agent knuckleballer, 45, has also mentioned the possibility of pitching in the National League.

Hopefully he can't clear customs and re-enter the U.S.

[a700hitter]

Hopefully, this week's Winter Meetings will provide some interesting moves for us to discuss. So far this off season has been a major downer. When the biggest highlight is hiring a new manager, it's a sucky off season.

[Elktonnick]

Hopefully' date=' this week's Winter Meetings will provide some interesting moves for us to discuss. So far this off season has been a major downer. When the biggest highlight is hiring a new manager, it's a sucky off season.[/quote']

 

I think things will heat up. Althoough I think Ben moves at a much more deliberate pace then Epstein did. I just hope he isn't too deliberate and sloooooow.

[seabeachfred]

I think the Red Sox made the decision to go for a cheaper less talented bullpen piece than Papelbon. Unless they make improvements in the remainder of the bullpen to make up for what they will be losing in swapping out paps for let's say Madson' date=' the bullpen will not be as good as last year. Theo always had trouble building a bullpen. Hopefully, BC is more skilled at it.[/quote']

 

Well so far he isn't 700. Yea, I know, it is early but already Nathan and Bell are gone and if they are really thinking of making Bard the closer they better get a brain scan right away. I get the impression watching Bard that there are times when pressure overwhelms him. I saw a number of times early on when we got off to such a rotten start and in September when we fell apart that Bard pitched more like Barf. He started losing control and the most inopportune time and then tried to overcome it by almost aiming the ball for a strike that never reached the catcher's glove but when carroming off the wall somewhere. I do not think he is fit to be our closer, and even if he was in the eyes of some here, who pitches the eigthth inning? Who pitches the seventh when needed? Who is our long man? Who the hell is left in our bullpen anyway besides Bard and the miserable Morales?

[iortiz]

Well so far he isn't 700. Yea' date=' I know, it is early but already Nathan and Bell are gone and [b']if they are really thinking of making Bard the closer they better get a brain scan right away[/b]. I get the impression watching Bard that there are times when pressure overwhelms him. I saw a number of times early on when we got off to such a rotten start and in September when we fell apart that Bard pitched more like Barf. He started losing control and the most inopportune time and then tried to overcome it by almost aiming the ball for a strike that never reached the catcher's glove but when carroming off the wall somewhere. I do not think he is fit to be our closer, and even if he was in the eyes of some here, who pitches the eigthth inning? Who pitches the seventh when needed? Who is our long man? Who the hell is left in our bullpen anyway besides Bard and the miserable Morales?

 

 

Yup, his problem is in his mind. Not in his mechanics or repertory but in his mind.

 

Anyway, A lot of holes to fill, regardless whether Bard is moved to the shutdown or SP spot. I guess they need and will go over the luxurey tax cap, if we really want to run as a legit WS contender team.

[commenter]

 

Yup, his problem is in his mind. Not in his mechanics or repertory but in his mind.

 

Anyway, A lot of holes to fill, regardless whether Bard is moved to the shutdown or SP spot. I guess they need and will go over the luxurey tax cap, if we really want to run as a legit WS contender team.

 

For one, I highly doubt they will. I don't know why you'd guess that as it looks like their trying to do everything for the cheap right now. Even with the Kuroda rumors they said they'd need to make room on their payroll to fit him.

 

For two, they don't need to go over the cap. If a team needed to do that to win, then every year it would be the Yankees winning, seeing as no other team goes over it. Other teams find ways without shelling out $14 million to an aging DH, spending money on aging outfielders (Cuddyer, Beltran, Willingham), spending money on foreign pitchers (Darvish), spending money on overrated pitchers (CJ Wilson), etc.

 

It's called a farm system. It's call trades. It's called signings like Aceves.

 

Spending money doesn't always fix the problems, in fact it often causes more problems. Everytime this team makes a free agent signing because they need said player despite the fact that said player doesn't actually fit their team. That's what everyone says when asked why they signed Lackey (he was the best option out there). Or when they signed Crawford, etc.

[seabeachfred]

 

Yup, his problem is in his mind. Not in his mechanics or repertory but in his mind.

 

Anyway, A lot of holes to fill, regardless whether Bard is moved to the shutdown or SP spot. I guess they need and will go over the luxurey tax cap, if we really want to run as a legit WS contender team.

 

Well iortiz, it is obvious you see the problem and aren't being swayed by some of the mumbo-jumbo eminating from the front office. You might decide it would be better for you to hold fast in Monterrey down Mexico way rather than spend your hard earned money watching a miserable team in action, and you can be that I will holding fast in Southern California if I believe the FO hasn't done all it can to put a winning team on the field. You know as well as I do that it costs a lot of money to make a trip to Boston, or even to Texas or Anaheim for that matter. You would like to know that when you make such a trip you're going to believe that your team has a good chance to win so the trip was worthwhile.

 

Frankly, I don't know if the front office is going to spend the money to upgrade the team, or whether they will make the smart trades that can put us into the post-season next year. I suppose we'll get a hint of things to come in the next week during the winter meetings. Commenter made some good points as well, saying that spending money doesn't always work. Lackey is proof of that, and maybe Crawford too, but as I will remind Commenter, Epstein did a pretty mediocre job of drafting the past five years despite what has been written. Notice Westmoreland, Fuentes, Reddick, Ellsbury, Kalish??? All left hand hitting outfielders. Where the hell were the quality pitchers drafted? This has to change so we are not caught short with a lack of pitchers as we were this season. I mean Kyle Weiland was the best we could do? It got so bad that we had to keep sending out the worthless and over=the=hill Wakefield. Again, we have to do a better job in that area, but for next season we may have to give up some young talent for quality established players, or just take our chances and go with some young players like Lavarnway. Paying Ortiz $14 million isn't going to get the job done.