2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jung]

I guess I would say that signing Ortiz for $14M just about insures that they will go over the LT cap for 2012 at least in my view. The Sox have to many needs beyond Ortiz or any bat for that matter. I don't think it is possible for them to stay under the limit if they are going to pay $14M just for Ortiz.

 

I think that the Sox have probably put together a budget at this point and they very likely know if they intend going over the LT cap limit or not. To some extent going over depends on whether or not you sign the players that you are after. In my opinion at this point, the Sox would be planning on going over the LT cap limit. Offering arbitration to Ortiz is a strong indication of that intention.

 

We will know for sure if and when the Sox make a move for a big FA signing. For example an offer to either Buehrle or CJ combined with arbitration for Ortiz will just about put them over the limit and there is so much more they will need to do beyond two players of that calibre. If they move Bard to the rotation they need a closer. They need two more relief pitchers as well. So if they do get the arbitration deal for Ortiz and get somebody like Burhrle or CJ, I would bet they would be right at or over the cap limit at that point. So even if they get them at bargain prices you would have to think they would be sinking at least another $12M-$15M into a closer and two more relief pitchers. Maybe the two relief pitchers becomes one relief pitcher and a swing man capable of starting on occasion. If they try to get another decent bat add maybe $8M to $12M to that. So a rough guess based on that combination of players puts them anywhere from $12M to $25M over the cap. That qualifies as busting the limit big in my book.

 

Once committed to Ortiz the options are probably something like what I have above or trade and a 2012 downgrade as a means of staying below the cap. I don't think that makes sense. Why commit to Ortiz and then trade and downgrade? I don't think they can put together a combination of players that makes trade and upgrade a tangible option. Much guess work in this but all I can do at this point.

[iortiz]

I guess I would say that signing Ortiz for $14M just about insures that they will go over the LT cap for 2012 at least in my view. The Sox have to many needs beyond Ortiz or any bat for that matter. I don't think it is possible for them to stay under the limit if they are going to pay $14M just for Ortiz.

 

I think that the Sox have probably put together a budget at this point and they very likely know if they intend going over the LT cap limit or not. To some extent going over depends on whether or not you sign the players that you are after. In my opinion at this point, the Sox would be planning on going over the LT cap limit. Offering arbitration to Ortiz is a strong indication of that intention.

 

We will know for sure if and when the Sox make a move for a big FA signing. For example an offer to either Buehrle or CJ combined with arbitration for Ortiz will just about put them over the limit and there is so much more they will need to do beyond two players of that calibre. If they move Bard to the rotation they need a closer. They need two more relief pitchers as well. So if they do get the arbitration deal for Ortiz and get somebody like Burhrle or CJ, I would bet they would be right at or over the cap limit at that point. So even if they get them at bargain prices you would have to think they would be sinking at least another $12M-$15M into a closer and two more relief pitchers. Maybe the two relief pitchers becomes one relief pitcher and a swing man capable of starting on occasion. If they try to get another decent bat add maybe $8M to $12M to that. So a rough guess based on that combination of players puts them anywhere from $12M to $25M over the cap. That qualifies as busting the limit big in my book.

 

Once committed to Ortiz the options are probably something like what I have above or trade and a 2012 downgrade as a means of staying below the cap. I don't think that makes sense. Why commit to Ortiz and then trade and downgrade? I don't think they can put together a combination of players that makes trade and upgrade a tangible option. Much guess work in this but all I can do at this point.

 

Bingo.

 

I see this just the same way you do jung. Signing Ortiz is likely they go over the cap. Now, if this is true, my concern will turn just as your 2013/2014 rates concern, regardless the 2013 FA class seems a better class than this 2012, mostly at SPs. If they bust the cap, they should bust it in big, otherwise it wouldn't make sense go over it this 2012 for a couple of millions, unless they are planning go over in big in 2013 ...

 

As you said, there are a lot of assumptions.

 

IMO Ortiz and/or a high caliber SP like CJ is/are the show-stopper about this issue (LT), at least this 2012.

 

We'll see.

[jung]

They could likely justify going over the cap limit in both 2012 and 2013 but would want to get back under again in 2014 when the cap limit goes up to $189M. The 3rd year in a row over the cap limit is painful from a tax rate perspective and now a 4th year is really painful under the new CBA (40%). If they went over in both 2012 and 2013, going over in 2014 would make 3 years in a row. Based on history I believe the Sox would avoid that.

[iortiz]

They could likely justify going over the cap limit in both 2012 and 2013 but would want to get back under again in 2014 when the cap limit goes up to $189M. The 3rd year in a row over the cap limit is painful from a tax rate perspective and now a 4th year is really painful under the new CBA (40%). If they went over in both 2012 and 2013' date=' going over in 2014 would make 3 years in a row. Based on history I believe the Sox would avoid that.[/quote']

 

Yup, 3 year in a row would be painful and unlikely. Unless our arks of money say the opposite

[SoxSport]

Yeah, the Sox were no.1 in hitting last year, and middle of the pack in pitching.

You could say, it's the pitching, stupid.

The Yankees finished first because their pitching was better than expected. Period.

It's always about pitching between the Red Sox and the Yankees.

So I would say to Papi, learn how to pitch--or take a walk.

[RonVermette]

The have 30 million to spend after losing Papelbon, Drew. Wakefield & Varitek. They paid Ortiz 12.5 this year so there's not much change there. I expect nearly all the 30 mil will go to pitching.

[iortiz]

The have 30 million to spend after losing Papelbon' date=' Drew. Wakefield & Varitek. They paid Ortiz 12.5 this year so there's not much change there. I expect nearly all the 30 mil will go to pitching.[/quote']

 

Are you considering the arbs salaries like Ells? According with my math they will have 23 M...

 

If they sign Ortiz +- 12 M, they'll eat almost the half of the budget before busting the LT and still a lot of holes to fill in our pitching, regardless Ortiz IMO is not our priority.

[SoxSport]

Regarding Papi, and the other free agents, you wonder where Valentine stands on these guys.

He surely will have an input into the makeup of the team. You can bet that he and Lucchino will be providing the FO with a good deal of guidance on this. If Ben wants to keep his job, he needs to develop a good working relationship with Bobby on personnel issues.

[iortiz]

Regarding Papi, and the other free agents, you wonder where Valentine stands on these guys.

He surely will have an input into the makeup of the team. You can bet that he and Lucchino will be providing the FO with a good deal of guidance on this. If Ben wants to keep his job, he needs to develop a good working relationship with Bobby on personnel issues.

 

I think this is true.

 

IMO seems like BV and LL are who going to build this (2012) team (I wouldn't be surprise if LL promised this to BV among other things). As you say, BC needs to develop a good working relationships with LL and mostly with BV and learn a lot from the old school way and eventually develop and incorporate his ideas. In the meantime, I see BC making the diligences, compiling the information for his bosses (dirt work) and making some suggestions, but in the end the final calls won't be his, at least by now.

[jung]

Whether they want his input or not they will definitely get it. Bobby V has an opinion on everything and will share it every chance he gets.

[FredLynn]

The have 30 million to spend after losing Papelbon' date=' Drew. Wakefield & Varitek. They paid Ortiz 12.5 this year so there's not much change there. I expect nearly all the 30 mil will go to pitching.[/quote']

 

To get who? Wilson?

Have you seen the list of FA pitchers that come available after next season? Its much more impressive than the list this year. After next year Matsusaka will be off the books, I believe. I would wait until then to get a great SP or two.

[jung]

One thing people are forgetting about the money the Sox are committed to for this year is that the money for Crawford and AGons goes up dramatically 2012 over 2011. AGons goes from $6.5M to $21M in 2012 and Crawford goes from $15M to $20M. So if you are using the 2011 numbers as a benchmark, AGons and Crawford alone eat up about $20M between the two of them. Folks tend to subtract the Paps, Drew, Wake and Tek money forgetting that changes to AGons and Crawford salary eat up a big portion of that.

[iortiz]

One thing people are forgetting about the money the Sox are committed to for this year is that the money for Crawford and AGons goes up dramatically 2012 over 2011. AGons goes from $6.5M to $21M in 2012 and Crawford goes from $15M to $20M. So if you are using the 2011 numbers as a benchmark' date=' AGons and Crawford alone eat up about $20M between the two of them. Folks tend to subtract the Paps, Drew, Wake and Tek money forgetting that changes to AGons and Crawford salary eat up a big portion of that.[/quote']

 

Crawford better put the numbers next season otherwise will be very painful deal with his contract.

[Meh]

I'm just wondering what are you confidence levels one to ten, ten being very confident in the player, on the following guys.

 

Bard as the closer

 

Reddick in starting RF

 

Lavarnway at DH

 

Salty at starting catcher

 

Aceves as the 5th starter

 

I'm not saying you won't make a move but I'm just curious how happy you would be with each of these in that spot

[Elktonnick]

I'm just wondering what are you confidence levels one to ten, ten being very confident in the player, on the following guys.

 

Bard as the closer

 

Reddick in starting RF

 

Lavarnway at DH

 

Salty at starting catcher

 

Aceves as the 5th starter

 

I'm not saying you won't make a move but I'm just curious how happy you would be with each of these in that spot

 

During the Edes interview today he said:

No one in RS FO really thinks Bard has it in him to close.

Reddick and Kalish are possible but the Sox arel looking for a better RF alternative

Aceves will be given a shot at starting.

[jung]

If the FO does not think Bard can close and won't give him a chance to start where does that put him?

[FredLynn]

During the Edes interview today he said:

No one in RS FO really thinks Bard has it in him to close.

Reddick and Kalish are possible but the Sox arel looking for a better RF alternative

Aceves will be given a shot at starting.

 

I would be shocked if Bard were not given the opportunity to close.

[Elktonnick]

If the FO does not think Bard can close and won't give him a chance to start where does that put him?

 

Sorry I left out I left out that Edes thought if they don't give Bard an opportunity to start he'd continue as a set up guy. The part of Edes comment that got me was he contradicted Cherington about Bard as a possible closer. One must presume that Bobby V and his pitchin coach (Bob Abudaca be my guess) will have some input on that question.

[SCM33]

I would be shocked if Bard were not given the opportunity to close.

 

Well, you're gunna be shocked then.

[example1]

Not giving bard a chance to close is a slap in the face. Bard deserves it, based both on his stuff and performance. The sox risk not letting this guy promote from within and would be risking a really good arm not signing longterm, etc., bard has a special arm and would be the most obvious and effective closer... Unless they start paying the relief ace like a closer, which would be warranted given the importance of the role, though highly unlikely.

[seabeachfred]

I wouldn't deal with Theo at this point...especially for someone like Garza. He did better in the NL last year' date=' but his ERA in the AL had been rising almost yearly. And, for what it's worth, Garza is not a plus in the clubhouse.[/quote']

 

Good point Spitball; I've heard the same thing about Garza in the clubhouse, but none of it was anything that was spelled out. Personally, I think he would like to return to the American League and be in a pennant race again and we all should remember how tough he was on us when he pitched for the Rays. As 700 put it, if we can get him at a reasonable price it is a no brainer. Besides, we do need a couple of starters. How does Garza and Buehrle sound?

[SCM33]

Not giving bard a chance to close is a slap in the face. Bard deserves it' date=' based both on his stuff and performance. The sox risk not letting this guy promote from within and would be risking a really good arm not signing longterm, etc., bard has a special arm and would be the most obvious and effective closer... Unless they start paying the relief ace like a closer, which would be warranted given the importance of the role, though highly unlikely.[/quote']

 

He has the ability and the stuff, no question.

 

He lacks the mental stability and the balls to close here though. I am sure he would do great closing out in San Diego....but not here. When things get tough, 2 things happen....first he cant find the strike zone, then when behind in the count his 98 MPH fastball turns into a 93 MPH "getmeover" pitch which ends up in the bleachers.

 

Should he get a shot, sure......he shouldnt be closing though. He can barely handle set-up duties.....arguably a more important situation of the game. Your telling me he can nail down game 7 vs. the Yanks at the Stadium? I think not. He cant even get 1 out in the 8th against KC as evidenced by his 2-9 record which is/was horrendous as a set-up guy (not that you dont already know that).

[seabeachfred]

People who are pushing Bard to be the closer ought to get a sniff of reality. This past season he was called on to protect either a lead or a tie a number of times, the amount I'm not sure of, but I do know that nine times he failed miserably in that role. Nine losses as a set-up man is an abomination, so how the hell can we expect him to close if he had trouble handling the set-up role that he had so much trouble with in April when we needed to get off to a good start, and in September when we needed him to pitch effectively to keep our slim hopes alive. He came up boxcars both those months.

 

Let's get a closer who knows how to close and keep Bard where he is. I also wouldn't mind seeing Aceves in the bullpen either. We are going to need at least five effective men down there as well as at least one good starting pitcher. BTW, does anyone have any idea what has been budgeted money wise for this winter? Unless there is an adequate supply of money allocated we are just wasting out typing figures even talking about it.

[jung]

Fortunately closers are out there in the FA market this year and that might in fact make it good sense to leave Bard where he is. If the Sox do not allow Bard to close then I think they should sit down with him and explain that they believe the spot they have him in is extremely important as unless they talk to him I think he will feel like he is stagnating with the Sox. Everybody believes he has been being groomed as closer. If they pass over him now and bring in a guy, they need to have the good sense to talk to the player or they risk losing him. Frankly, the Sox have not been very good at communicating lately nor understanding where they are either with a player or anywhere else for that matter.

 

For those interested in the money end of things if you go to the "your perfect off season" thread, now on page 2 of "Talk Sox", we go through the money commitments. I am of the mind that given the changes to luxury tax rates in the new CBA that the Sox are likely to be willing to go over the tax cap this year and I think offering Ortiz arbitration is a good indication of that willingness.

[iortiz]

He has the ability and the stuff, no question.

 

He lacks the mental stability and the balls to close here though. I am sure he would do great closing out in San Diego....but not here. When things get tough, 2 things happen....first he cant find the strike zone, then when behind in the count his 98 MPH fastball turns into a 93 MPH "getmeover" pitch which ends up in the bleachers.

 

Should he get a shot, sure......he shouldnt be closing though. He can barely handle set-up duties.....arguably a more important situation of the game. Your telling me he can nail down game 7 vs. the Yanks at the Stadium? I think not. He cant even get 1 out in the 8th against KC as evidenced by his 2-9 record which is/was horrendous as a set-up guy (not that you dont already know that).

 

This is why not any reliever can be a closer, and specially in our environment.

You already had the adequate in the position who had proved to have the mentality and mostly the balls to shut the tough games down.

 

Bard is likely our future closer. IMO he is not ready. Yes, He has the stuff to make it. But not right now. They have to work with his mind. Probably the shut down spot is the job which takes the most pressure than any other in the roster. Reason why I think he is not ready to handle this kind of pressure, specially with an advantage of only 1-R .

 

On the other hand and facing the facts, we let Papelbon walk, we are clogged in the books and we need to fill other spots, so... we must give him a shot... Today, I prefer seeing him as a closer than in our rotation. The result will be more painful if he doesn't make it as SP. We would see the same 2011 picture. IMO that transition has more risk.

 

Again, and given the circumstances, IMO they should bring a solid SP and let Bard close the games. Now, if they think bust the LT, bring the entire pitching combo, SP, BP arms, closer and depth.

[Elktonnick]

People who are pushing Bard to be the closer ought to get a sniff of reality. This past season he was called on to protect either a lead or a tie a number of times, the amount I'm not sure of, but I do know that nine times he failed miserably in that role. Nine losses as a set-up man is an abomination, so how the hell can we expect him to close if he had trouble handling the set-up role that he had so much trouble with in April when we needed to get off to a good start, and in September when we needed him to pitch effectively to keep our slim hopes alive. He came up boxcars both those months.

 

Let's get a closer who knows how to close and keep Bard where he is. I also wouldn't mind seeing Aceves in the bullpen either. We are going to need at least five effective men down there as well as at least one good starting pitcher. BTW, does anyone have any idea what has been budgeted money wise for this winter? Unless there is an adequate supply of money allocated we are just wasting out typing figures even talking about it.

 

Edes is just reporting what I think a lot of objective observers saw. Bard has the stuff but not the temperment to close. I think the Red Sox baseball people see that too.

[jung]

I am not sure what to think about Bard. The story last year was that his mechanics fell apart. Now he does not have the guts to close. Apparently he had the guts to close when Cherington commented on him earlier. However that comment came before the new CBA was in place.

 

I suspect this is as much a reaction to the Sox feeling like they have more money to spend combined with the availability of closers in this year's FA market. Getting a closer out of the FA market is fine by me.

 

As I mentioned earlier if the Sox are not going to have Bard close thats fine, However, they better talk to the player especially if he is left with the impression that the FO does not think he has the guts to close.

 

If you think about it some of what the Sox implied they were doing with this team based on FO comments has changed since the new CBA became a reality. That is actually encouraging because it also implies that they are using their heads. I do believe that each team is different because each team is in a different situation. In my view you can't judge one team by what another team might be willing to do. The Sox are not where the Phils are right now and nobody is ever where the Yanks are regardless of the year.

[redsoxfan3]

I have been reading a lot lately that Bard is a realistic option as a starter next year. Could that mean we have a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Aceves, and Bard? I know that Aceves needs to get a shot at the rotation this spring. Also, that means we have to do some serious work in the bullpen then. I know that there is some talk about signing Heath Bell as a closer. I know that some of you may not like that move. I don't mind the move if it is for two years with maybe a club option for a third. But, can we really move both Bard and Aceves to the rotation at this point? I know that they both potentially could be decent starters for us. I would not mind that rotation at all, only if we fill their roles in the pen this offseason. I know BC has been talking about going after low-risk, high reward players (not Wakefield). I wouldn't mind if we have Bard and Aceves fighting for spots in Spring Training with us signing a couple of cheap veteran pitchers potentially fighting for spots as well. At this point, it is hard to tell who BC has in mind. The positive is that we know Bard and Aceves are proven in the pen regardless, so worst case scenario they end up in the same role as last year. Bard obviously is the in-house option for closer if we don't go after anyone else. I would personally like to see us go after Bell for that role though. Does anyone else have some insight on this? I would love to hear some feedback from you guys.

 

Starting Rotation:

Lester

Beckett

Buchholz

Aceves

Bard

 

Bullpen:

7th inning- ?

Set-up- ?

Closer- Bell?

 

Who could potentially fill in the 7th inning and set-up role if this was the case? Are there any in-house options or would we have to go out and make some signings or trade(s)?

 

I am just hoping we have some payroll to work with, it looks like we may not have a whole lot if Papi comes back (obviously). I would love for us to get that right-handed hitting right fielder, but that might not be possible with us going after Papi. I hope that Kalish has an amazing Spring Training and can potentially be in a platoon role with Reddick next year if that is the case. I would love for Kalish to take over that position as an everyday player (unfortunately his injury last year was a huge set back).

 

Also, I am very intrigued by the new pitching coach. I have heard Dave Wallace as a candidate. How do you guys feel about him (there may be some mixed reviews)? I have heard David Cone as a potential candidate. I don't know how serious that is or if that was just a name being thrown out there by someone. Does anyone have any ideas as who potential candidates are?

[mvp 78]

If he's not ready to be a closer now, he'll never be. He'd be great for a smaller market team.

[a700hitter]

If the FO has no confidence in Bard as a closer and is still seriously considering him as a starter, then the Papelbon move makes even less sens. Without Bard in the closer or 8th inning role, the bullpen will be in shambles. I don't think Heath Bell can be signed for 2 years when a broken down warhorse like Nathan got 2 years. I don't like giving Bell 3 years, because he is 34. If they do that, why didn't they give a 30 year old Papelbon 4 years. Their plan is very unclear at this point. Their direction should start to take shape in the next couple of weeks.

 

As for the thought of Kalish and Reddick platooning, a lefty-lefty platoon makes little sense. IMO one of these guys will stick and the other will be packaged in a trade.