2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

I've heard the Sox offered arb to Ortiz and Wheeler. declined on everybody else including Tek, Wake, Bedard, Drew, Jackson and Miller.

 

https://twitter.com/#!/ESPNJoeyMac/status/139545349999169536

 

Not sure where that came from. Only Ortiz, Wheeler and Tek were eligible for arbitration.

[a700hitter]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/american-league-free-agent-arbitration-offers.html

 

The Red Sox announced that they offered David Ortiz (A) and Dan Wheeler ( B )arbitration. They declined to offer Jason Varitek ( B ) arbitration. Jonathan Papelbon (A) already signed with the Phillies.

[FredLynn]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/american-league-free-agent-arbitration-offers.html

 

The word in the media earlier was that Wheeler would not be offered arbitration. I would not be unhappy to see him return.

[ipot]

If you could buy that performance going forward' date=' it would be a bargain, but look at the guy's career. I have no reason to believe that he can show any consistent success. I might have taken a 1 year flier on him, but not a 2 year contract. He's as likely to go 3-5 and be in the minors by June as he is to repeat last years success.[/quote']

 

That's the rub with relievers. You have no clue what they do from year to year.

[Palodios]

Of note:

 

Today is the last day the Sox can offer arbitration to their FAs. Of note is that Wheeler is apparently not going to get that offer.

His stats after he came back from from the DL in May are: ERA: 2.54, BAA: .253; OPSa: .567

Why is he not being offered arbitration? He made what: $3m? This is a mistake.

 

We had heard reports for weeks that Wheeler was not going to be offered arbitration. I'm very glad they decided to change their minds and give it to him. Even if he accepts, I think a 1/4 deal for Wheeler will be quite a bargain.

[RonVermette]

Haven't they always avoided arbitration in recent years? Expect a deal on both before the December 7th deadline.

[Palodios]

Haven't they always avoided arbitration in recent years? Expect a deal on both before the December 7th deadline.

 

They avoid arbitration with cost controlled players-- ones with less than 6 years of ML experience. What we're referring to here are free agents who have been offered arbitration, who get full market value in the process.

[example1]

So the Sox might be interested in trading for Gio Gonzalez and/or pursuing CJ Wilson.

 

Gio certainly has good stuff. Does anyone else ever watch highlights of these players and just have a hard time imagining them pitching in Boston? Watching Gio, I see him striking out Mariners, Royals, more Mariners, Diamondbacks, etc.,. I see day games in a sunny (short-sleeved) Oakland stadium.

 

...I just can't help but think of the difference between that and watching the Sox. Chilly and blustery days in May or September, against the Yankees or Rays, in a small ballpark, with all eyes focused on his performance.

 

I'm not saying Gio can't do it. His stuff and delivery really remind me of Eric Bedard in his prime. That's not a bad thing. I just don't know if the guy is an ace. Same thoughts about CJ Wilson and the other name I've seen floated, Jair Jurrjens.

[commenter]

So the Sox might be interested in trading for Gio Gonzalez and/or pursuing CJ Wilson.

 

Gio certainly has good stuff. Does anyone else ever watch highlights of these players and just have a hard time imagining them pitching in Boston? Watching Gio, I see him striking out Mariners, Royals, more Mariners, Diamondbacks, etc.,. I see day games in a sunny (short-sleeved) Oakland stadium.

 

...I just can't help but think of the difference between that and watching the Sox. Chilly and blustery days in May or September, against the Yankees or Rays, in a small ballpark, with all eyes focused on his performance.

 

I'm not saying Gio can't do it. His stuff and delivery really remind me of Eric Bedard in his prime. That's not a bad thing. I just don't know if the guy is an ace. Same thoughts about CJ Wilson and the other name I've seen floated, Jair Jurrjens.

 

I wouldn't give the A's what they want for Gio Gonzalez -- which is basically a similar trade from what they got for Dan Haren (especially since his numbers at Fenway & against the AL East are terrible). The same for Jair Jurrjens (who's often injured & would get crushed in the AL East).

 

Honestly, I'd rather they stay away from trading away the rest of their farm system, as their farm system was a spot that hurt them last year. They needed someone to fill in for Buchholz & they didn't have a pitcher besides Kyle Weiland. They already depleted it for Adrian Gonzalez. Maybe if Gio Gonzalez was a better pitcher, but he's a #3 who has a high walk rate & his numbers are better than he actually is. I wouldn't want them trade Lavarnway or Middlebrooks, who should both be untouchable, and one of them would probably have to be traded to get one of those pitchers back.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Ortiz accepts arbitration and nets nearly $14 mil in 2012. In terms of Gio Gonzalez, I am unsure the sox can matchup with them, but he's a concern with the BBs.

[SoxSport]

I think it's possible they might give Bedard another shot if his knee has come around. He pitched pretty decent in Boston--when he could pitch. That knee injury persisted, and maybe the off season has put it behind him. Beane probably wants too much for Gio, and all those free agents are way overpriced. Still, I'd rather put big bucks in a pitcher than Papi, who is 36 and may or may not have another good year. They need another solid starter because Beckett and Buchholz are fragile.

[example1]

As much as I'm skeptical of CJ Wilson, I would rather they spend the papelbon dollars (plus more, obviously) on a SP like him. Nobody would complain about Beckett, Lester, Wilson, Buchholz, Aceves in the regular season.

[Palodios]

I think it's possible they might give Bedard another shot if his knee has come around. He pitched pretty decent in Boston--when he could pitch. That knee injury persisted' date=' and maybe the off season has put it behind him. Beane probably wants too much for Gio, and all those free agents are way overpriced. Still, I'd rather put big bucks in a pitcher than Papi, who is 36 and may or may not have another good year. They need another solid starter because Beckett and Buchholz are fragile.[/quote']

 

Bedard should retire, or go to the bullpen. He is not meant to be a starting pitcher, not sure why he hasn't just accepted it by now.

[BSN07]

If they can get Wilson for 4/60M then I'd be ok with it. I like him, but something about him worries me and I haven't put my finger on it yet(I'm talking on the field, I'm sure he's a nice guy). Gio is interesting. Not sure he is the guy to give up top prospects for since the Sox have limited ones after last years trade. His BB tendancies scare me. Also I think other clubs could offer better packages and that would only end up making the Red Sox give up anymore talent. That and I'm always skeptical about Pitchers coming from Pitcher parks.

 

I'm worried about any long term deal for SP after the Lackey fiasco. I hated the deal when it was announced and I hated every day since. Best news of the off season IMO is that he needed TJS. Only draw back is it killed my hopes of a trade for another bad contract. I was almost hopeful for them trading him to the Cubs for Soriano

 

I don't think the Red Sox need to go out and over spend on SP, especially when there is no true top of the rotation SP available. I think they should try to fill the back end in with low cost or short term deal types. Oswalt on a 2 year deal(with maybe an option) would be nice. The rotation needs a veteran presence IMO. I also like the idea of Buehrle on a 2 possible 3 year deal as well.

 

Sorry if i'm all over the place. Haven't written in awhile and kind of blurted it all out here

[Elktonnick]

Bedard should retire' date=' or go to the bullpen. He is not meant to be a starting pitcher, not sure why he hasn't just accepted it by now.[/quote']

 

Those who have watched Bedard in Baltimore know he has never lived up on his promise. The O's color analyst Jim Palmer is perhaps his biggest critic. Bedard's problem is in his head and heart. He pitches like Matt clement did after he was hit. Bedard will do okay pitching for non comteneder like a Pittsburgh, Houston or Kansas City but never for a ALE team.

[ipot]

Those who have watched Bedard in Baltimore know he has never lived up on his promise. The O's color analyst Jim Palmer is perhaps his biggest critic. Bedard's problem is in his head and heart. He pitches like Matt clement did after he was hit. Bedard will do okay pitching for non comteneder like a Pittsburgh' date=' Houston or Kansas City but never for a ALE team.[/quote']

 

Very true. It's unfortunate because he has the goods if he's healthy.

[RonVermette]

Given the unpredictability of injuries, the Sox need to have 7 or 8 potential starters in April, So Bedard will likely be one of them.

[Interestedobserver]

Why offer arby on Ortiz?

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Why offer arby on Ortiz?

 

Because he loves arby's. Just look at the guy...

[seabeachfred]

So the Sox might be interested in trading for Gio Gonzalez and/or pursuing CJ Wilson.

 

Gio certainly has good stuff. Does anyone else ever watch highlights of these players and just have a hard time imagining them pitching in Boston? Watching Gio, I see him striking out Mariners, Royals, more Mariners, Diamondbacks, etc.,. I see day games in a sunny (short-sleeved) Oakland stadium.

 

...I just can't help but think of the difference between that and watching the Sox. Chilly and blustery days in May or September, against the Yankees or Rays, in a small ballpark, with all eyes focused on his performance.

 

I'm not saying Gio can't do it. His stuff and delivery really remind me of Eric Bedard in his prime. That's not a bad thing. I just don't know if the guy is an ace. Same thoughts about CJ Wilson and the other name I've seen floated, Jair Jurrjens.

 

There might be some very tough decisions the Red Sox may have to make but from where I sit I would be adamantly against tradint Will Middlbrook or Ryan Lavarnway. They are two players who may turn out to be vital offensive stalwarts for us at a time when some of our better prospects are still down in the lower minors. We cannot afford to trade prospects like that away UNLESS we get a top notch pitcher in exchange and by that I mean a number 1 or 2 man----and if that pitcher has proven he can win the AL East. John Henry is still swimming in money and he could afford to go the FA route if he is of a mind to spend the money. Of course, a big contract to a pitcher is a very big risk but so is a trade for a pitcher who is suspect of being able to compete in Boston. In the meantime how about we finally name a manager and get that RH hitting outfielder since with Ortiz almost a cinch to return we cannot afford to be as left handed as we were this year.

[example1]

There might be some very tough decisions the Red Sox may have to make but from where I sit I would be adamantly against tradint Will Middlbrook or Ryan Lavarnway. They are two players who may turn out to be vital offensive stalwarts for us at a time when some of our better prospects are still down in the lower minors. We cannot afford to trade prospects like that away UNLESS we get a top notch pitcher in exchange and by that I mean a number 1 or 2 man----and if that pitcher has proven he can win the AL East. John Henry is still swimming in money and he could afford to go the FA route if he is of a mind to spend the money. Of course' date=' a big contract to a pitcher is a very big risk but so is a trade for a pitcher who is suspect of being able to compete in Boston. In the meantime how about we finally name a manager and get that RH hitting outfielder since with Ortiz almost a cinch to return we cannot afford to be as left handed as we were this year.[/quote']

 

I would add Kalish to that list. In 5 years we could be laughing at the idea of trading any of those 3 cost controlled players except for truly elite pitchers.

[Palodios]

I would add Kalish to that list. In 5 years we could be laughing at the idea of trading any of those 3 cost controlled players except for truly elite pitchers.

 

Agreed. Selling low on an injured season from Kalish would be a huge mistake. All three of those players will probably be getting major league playing time by June, I'd bet.

[example1]

And all three have the potential to add near all-star play at their respective positions.

 

The more I think about it, the less interested I am in locking up a RF longterm because Kalish and Reddick have something to add there. Of course, Kalish offers Ellsbury insurance in CF too.

 

If funds are limited I would rather they nail down the rotation than freak out with a CP or RF. They have both on their team right now.

[a700hitter]

And all three have the potential to add near all-star play at their respective positions.

 

The more I think about it, the less interested I am in locking up a RF longterm because Kalish and Reddick have something to add there. Of course, Kalish offers Ellsbury insurance in CF too.

 

If funds are limited I would rather they nail down the rotation than freak out with a CP or RF. They have both on their team right now.

Reddick's ceiling is not very high. They would trade him tomorrow in a package, but the other teams know that he is 25 and nothing special, so no one wants him. We really tend to over-inflate the value of our young players. He projects to be an average OFer at best. Kalisih has a higher ceiling. Other teams would want him.

[Palodios]

Reddick's ceiling is not very high. They would trade him tomorrow in a package' date=' but the other teams know that he is 25 and nothing special, so no one wants him. We really tend to over-inflate the value of our young players. He projects to be an average OFer at best. Kalisih has a higher ceiling. Other teams would want him.[/quote']

 

Reddick plays exceptional defense, and could very easily average 20 HR a year. I would be surprised if he is ever an all-star, but many many teams will want a cost controlled 3-4 WAR player.

[a700hitter]

Reddick plays exceptional defense' date=' and could very easily average 20 HR a year. I would be surprised if he is ever an all-star, but many many teams will want a cost controlled 3-4 WAR player.[/quote']He's not going to net you anything of great value on the trade market, unless he is a throw in in a package. The Sox clearly have plans for Kalish, so they have no need for Reddick. There is no reason to keep 2 left handed RFers. IMO they can't move Reddick for much at all. There are certainly teams that wouldn't mind having him, but they aren't going to give up much value to get him.

[Palodios]

He's not going to net you anything of great value on the trade market' date=' unless he is a throw in in a package. The Sox clearly have plans for Kalish, so they have no need for Reddick. There is no reason to keep 2 left handed RFers. IMO they can't move Reddick for much at all. There are certainly teams that wouldn't mind having him, but they aren't going to give up much value to get him.[/quote']

 

He won't net a high level player like Felix, that's for sure. But he may be able to net a borderline all-star, or a high potential guy with some injury concerns--possibly nearing the end of a contract. He would have been the centerpiece for a Beltran deal last year-- that is the kind of criteria I'm talking about.

[example1]

He won't net a high level player like Felix' date=' that's for sure. But he may be able to net a borderline all-star, or a high potential guy with some injury concerns--possibly nearing the end of a contract. He would have been the centerpiece for a Beltran deal last year-- that is the kind of criteria I'm talking about.[/quote']

 

Yeah, above AVG defensive RFs are worth something decent. I also wouldn't write Reddick off so quickly as average or marginal. He is a player whose hit streaks make are really impressive. If he is able to learn how to control those and approximate them over a season he would be well above average. Plus, with a cannon in RF and the ability to play CF he would be useful on a team like Oakland or Seattle or San Diego.

[jacksonianmarch]

He won't net a high level player like Felix' date=' that's for sure. But he may be able to net a borderline all-star, or a high potential guy with some injury concerns--possibly nearing the end of a contract. He would have been the centerpiece for a Beltran deal last year-- that is the kind of criteria I'm talking about.[/quote']

 

and the sox failed to deal him while his value was at an all time high. His crash to earth and the likelihood that he ends up as the sox 4th OFer makes his value a lot less than it was in July

[iortiz]

IMO Reddick surprised me a lot last season. I was saying that we needed to improve our rotation before the OF position since the kid fit just fine out there (before the trade deadline), and even finishing with average numbers he wouldn't have impacted negatively since our offense was already a beast. I like the kid, he is talented, plays good defense and showed interesting things at plate (showed some passages of good disciple AB ).

 

On the other hand, it's too early to even say that he will be a very good player or beyond, an all-starer. We shouldn't overreact about this. If he puts something around his 2011 numbers .280/.327/.784 the next three years (likely), he would be a good player or at least an average player, and who knows ?, maybe he can fight an OF position or at least be a very good back up. We need to see a lot more from this kid.