2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

First of all, 7 thumbsups?

 

Second, I like Cuddyer. I would be pleased if they signed him. He's a good player, a good clubhouse guy, and his personality might add nice balance and veteran presence to the club. I'm all for it.

 

I think Beltran has higher upside and as a switchhitter he offers a different kind of versatility. However, Cuddyer is a comfortable RF and would (hopefully) cost a bit less. Sign me up, 3 years max.

 

Cuddyer or Beltran, one of the two. Kalish is the CF when Ellsbury leaves after 2013.

 

Cuddyer is 2 yrs younger than Beltran and considerably more healthy. He also happens to be arguably the best FA OF of a very weak class. He may have to accept a 3 yr deal, but I have a feeling he signs for 4 or more yrs. Beltran seems to be the more likely 3 yr contract, but I have a feeling he isnt the right guy. Lots of injuries and he played really well in a contract yr.

[example1]

Cuddyer is 2 yrs younger than Beltran and considerably more healthy. He also happens to be arguably the best FA OF of a very weak class. He may have to accept a 3 yr deal' date=' but I have a feeling he signs for 4 or more yrs. Beltran seems to be the more likely 3 yr contract, but I have a feeling he isnt the right guy. Lots of injuries and he played really well in a contract yr.[/quote']

 

I think either would be a good signing. Cuddyer would be a good pick for the Sox. Beltran has plenty to offer.

 

I think Beltran's upside is higher because when he's been on the field he's been a bit better, .043 better in OBP and .032 in SLG over the past 3 years when on the field. He's had better career seasons and is more athletic.

 

Cuddyer is probably the safer, less-flasy signing. I like starting Cuddyer at 3 years, $30m, with a 4th year vesting option at the same price. They may have to work up from there, but there's no way they should pay him anything above 12m/yr, and only do that if they are desperate and/or if everyone else costs a lot more.

[iortiz]

Cuddyer is 2 yrs younger than Beltran and considerably more healthy. He also happens to be arguably the best FA OF of a very weak class. He may have to accept a 3 yr deal' date=' but I have a feeling he signs for 4 or more yrs. Beltran seems to be the more likely 3 yr contract, but I have a feeling he isnt the right guy. Lots of injuries and he played really well in a contract yr.[/quote']

 

If we sign another player for 3+ years, re-review/re-analyse/re-process his injury track, That's all I ask.

 

These days I'd prefer a guy with a good track in that department and probably -10% at the numbers than the guy who has a bad track in that department but with the desired numbers.

[User Name]

If we sign another player for 3+ years' date=' re-review/re-analyse/re-process his injury track, That's all I ask. [/b']

 

These days I'd prefer a guy with a good track in that department and probably -10% at the numbers than the guy who has a bad track in that department but with the desired numbers.

 

That's exactly why you don't give five-year contracts for relievers.....

 

In fact, Alex Anthopolous (Blue Jays GM) did some research when he was still an assistant GM on injuries on long-term deals for relievers when he was still an assistant GM, Anthopolous said: "...basically if you were giving out a five-year deal you were only going to get a player for four seasons max."

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's exactly why you don't give five-year contracts for relievers.....

 

In fact, Alex Anthopolous (Blue Jays GM) did some research when he was still an assistant GM on injuries on long-term deals for relievers when he was still an assistant GM, Anthopolous said: "...basically if you were giving out a five-year deal you were only going to get a player for four seasons max."

 

Dammit you beat me to it!!!!!

 

Ugh. I was ready to pounce. :thumbdown

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bill James predictions are out for 2012.

 

The good news is that Lackey, despite TJ Surgery, is still on track to throw 174 IP to a 4.24 ERA next season.

[a700hitter]

From today's Herald. The highlighted portion scares me:

 

With the Red Sox unwilling to make Papelbon a contract offer because they believed his demands didn’t match up to their needs, Bard may be installed as the closer, although GM Ben Cherington hasn’t been willing to make any commitment. Regardless, it’s unlikely they will offer a three- or four-year deal to other top-shelf free-agent closers, including Ryan Madson or Francisco Rodriguez. There’s a far better chance that they will bargain-hunt for late-inning relievers who may be more willing to accept short-term contracts (Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, Jonathan Broxton, etc.).

 

Nathan, Lidge or Broxton? The late innings will be real cliffhangers if these are our options. Broxton flat out sucks. He lost his confidence and he has been a repeat visitor to the DL. He's Eric Gagne --Part II. Lidge will keep the cardiac care centers filled to capacity in Boston during the baseball season. Joe Nathan is damaged goods-- straight from the dumpster.

[jung]

This is coming at the question from the other side but the cost and relative success of using a sort of "middle of the price range" reliever as your closer is what makes me suspect that they are likely to insert Bard there if they can.

 

I think the reason so many young guys at the early stages of their careers get the job is because GM's are able to convince themselves that they will not do worse with the young guy ala' Bard than a reliever that they get for around $5M or $6M or even a bit more and that is likely a fairly accurate appraisal. Since the hypothetical young guy is often on the books for something less than $2M per and often even getting closer to $1M per the GM sees the similarity in performance as a net gain of $3-$5M.

[User Name]

Nathan's average fastball velocity last year (and he spent some time regaining his velocity pitching in the Majors) was 92.3, there's something there. Lidge is damaged goods, Broxton has promise if they can fix his head.

[a700hitter]

This is coming at the question from the other side but the cost and relative success of using a sort of "middle of the price range" reliever as your closer is what makes me suspect that they are likely to insert Bard there if they can.

 

I think the reason so many young guys at the early stages of their careers get the job is because GM's are able to convince themselves that they will not do worse with the young guy ala' Bard than a reliever that they get for around $5M or $6M or even a bit more and that is likely a fairly accurate appraisal. Since the hypothetical young guy is often on the books for something less than $2M per and often even getting closer to $1M per the GM sees the similarity in performance as a net gain of $3-$5M.

Bard IMO is the best choice for closer at this point. These bums and retreads mentioned in the article should not be considered for the closer job and they would scare me as the 8th inning guy. At this point, I am inclined to go with Aceves for the 8th and take the huge step down in performance from what we have enjoyed for the last couple of years in the 8th inning. Maybe Jenks loses a 100 lbs by spring training so he's only overweight by 50 lbs and he can give some quality late innings. As for Lidge, Nathan, and Broxton, I have very little no more faith in them than I do in Jenks.

[YAZMAN]

Bard IMO is the best choice for closer at this point.

 

+1

[Meh]

Broxton flat out sucks. He lost his confidence and he has been a repeat visitor to the DL.

 

Just another victim of Torre.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Nathan's average fastball velocity last year (and he spent some time regaining his velocity pitching in the Majors) was 92.3' date=' there's something there. Lidge is damaged goods, Broxton has promise if they can fix his head.[/quote']

 

Nathans avg fastball was 92.3 on the way in. It was probably double that on the way back. Dude gets shelled. I'll take Ace - Bard

[seabeachfred]

That's exactly why you don't give five-year contracts for relievers.....

 

In fact, Alex Anthopolous (Blue Jays GM) did some research when he was still an assistant GM on injuries on long-term deals for relievers when he was still an assistant GM, Anthopolous said: "...basically if you were giving out a five-year deal you were only going to get a player for four seasons max."

 

Boomer was my fault User Name and I apologize for putting you through that crap. After reading your posts I'd be a damn fool to even think you could be him. We disagreed on a few posts and right away I jumped to conclusions. My bad. Matter of fact, there seems to be a lot of disagreements on this board but for the most part I find that healthy until someone accuses someone of something they didn't do or who they are. Again sorry for that.

[seabeachfred]

From today's Herald. The highlighted portion scares me:

 

 

 

Nathan, Lidge or Broxton? The late innings will be real cliffhangers if these are our options. Broxton flat out sucks. He lost his confidence and he has been a repeat visitor to the DL. He's Eric Gagne --Part II. Lidge will keep the cardiac care centers filled to capacity in Boston during the baseball season. Joe Nathan is damaged goods-- straight from the dumpster.

 

I can certainly speak for Broxton and I second your take on him with great prejudice. The guy doesn't only suck, he's a choke artist of the first degree. If the Phillies dumped Lidge that ought to speak for itself. Nathan might be a stopgap for a year or two. Word is filtering out that he is healthy again, though I wouldn't bet my house on it....maybe my garage.

[User Name]

Nathans avg fastball was 92.3 on the way in. It was probably double that on the way back. Dude gets shelled. I'll take Ace - Bard

 

His average velocity the two years pre-surgery was 93.6

 

One of them will be in the rotation, per all indications. You need an arm that can pitch the 8th and provides closer insurance. From the current crop, the one most likely to come back to form (IMO) is Nathan.

[User Name]

Boomer was my fault User Name and I apologize for putting you through that crap. After reading your posts I'd be a damn fool to even think you could be him. We disagreed on a few posts and right away I jumped to conclusions. My bad. Matter of fact' date=' there seems to be a lot of disagreements on this board but for the most part I find that healthy until someone accuses someone of something they didn't do or who they are. Again sorry for that.[/quote']

 

Forgotten.

[Elktonnick]

I can certainly speak for Broxton and I second your take on him with great prejudice. The guy doesn't only suck' date=' he's a choke artist of the first degree. If the Phillies dumped Lidge that ought to speak for itself. Nathan might be a stopgap for a year or two. Word is filtering out that he is healthy again, though I wouldn't bet my house on it....maybe my garage.[/quote']

 

I'd like Nathan both as stopgap and or insurance.

[Spitball]

Catcher Ramon Hernandez just might be a nice signing. I know he put up his stats in Cincinnati the last two years, but his offense has been better than what the Sox have been getting. Plus, his defense has been very good.

[VA Sox Fan]

Red Sox meeting with Ortiz's agent

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff November 15, 2011 10:37 PM

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

MILWAUKEE — The Red Sox are scheduled to meet with Fern Cuza, the agent for designated hitter David Ortiz, in about a hour.

 

The Red Sox have been in regular contact with Ortiz since he became a free agent and recently have made him an offer. With John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino now on the premises for MLB owners meetings, perhaps a deal could get done.

 

But Cuza is now meeting with Orioles GM Dan Duquette, another team that could have interest in Ortiz.

[VA Sox Fan]

Red Sox meeting with Ortiz's agent

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff November 15, 2011 10:37 PM

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

MILWAUKEE — The Red Sox are scheduled to meet with Fern Cuza, the agent for designated hitter David Ortiz, in about a hour.

 

The Red Sox have been in regular contact with Ortiz since he became a free agent and recently have made him an offer. With John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino now on the premises for MLB owners meetings, perhaps a deal could get done.

 

But Cuza is now meeting with Orioles GM Dan Duquette, another team that could have interest in Ortiz.

[VA Sox Fan]

Not sure how I posted that twice. Sorry

[jung]

There is an unconfirmed report out there that the Sox have offered Ortiz 2 years at $6M per year.

[example1]

Red Sox meeting with Ortiz's agent

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff November 15, 2011 10:37 PM

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

MILWAUKEE — The Red Sox are scheduled to meet with Fern Cuza, the agent for designated hitter David Ortiz, in about a hour.

 

The Red Sox have been in regular contact with Ortiz since he became a free agent and recently have made him an offer. With John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino now on the premises for MLB owners meetings, perhaps a deal could get done.

 

But Cuza is now meeting with Orioles GM Dan Duquette, another team that could have interest in Ortiz.

 

I really hope that if they resign him, they get him for like $8m a year for 2 years. Otherwise, I'm not going to be a big fan of resigning Ortiz, particularly if it prevents them from getting a younger, more versatile OF like Cuddyer or Beltran.

 

I suspect that they feel like Beltran is going to cost too much and will be too much of a risk and that they will say the cost is prohibitive for Cuddyer. That would be super lame.

 

This is a goo dtime to restock the team for versatility and to change the personality of the team a bit. I like what Ortiz has given all of us for years, but I wasn't overly impressed with him last year as a leader and don't think that he's capable of being an elite team leader, which is what this team needs.

 

Of course, if they get Ortiz and those other guys, count me in.

[a700hitter]

There is an unconfirmed report out there that the Sox have offered Ortiz 2 years at $6M per year.

Maybe they are low balling him forcing him to take the Orioles offer. Of course, they'll have their toadies and lackeys in the press paint Ortiz as a selfish ingrate for not taking their offer.

[example1]

There is an unconfirmed report out there that the Sox have offered Ortiz 2 years at $6M per year.

 

This makes sense and is what I heard on EEI (from pundits, not news, mind you). That's the going cost for DHs. Ortiz will be offened. Another team might offer him more. He might take it. The Sox will move on. Some people here will freak out. Pieces falling into place.

[example1]

Maybe they are low balling him forcing him to take the Orioles offer. Of course' date=' they'll have their toadies and lackeys in the press paint Ortiz as a selfish ingrate for not taking their offer.[/quote']

 

I doubt it, at 6m. It seems like $6m is a "value offer" for the Sox. It's like watching Pawn Stars. "The item is worth $12m, but I gotta take the risk and it's old and not in ideal shape, and the market for these things is pretty low right now. I'll give you $6m. Deal?"

[a700hitter]

I really hope that if they resign him, they get him for like $8m a year for 2 years. Otherwise, I'm not going to be a big fan of resigning Ortiz, particularly if it prevents them from getting a younger, more versatile OF like Cuddyer or Beltran.

 

I suspect that they feel like Beltran is going to cost too much and will be too much of a risk and that they will say the cost is prohibitive for Cuddyer. That would be super lame.

 

This is a goo dtime to restock the team for versatility and to change the personality of the team a bit. I like what Ortiz has given all of us for years, but I wasn't overly impressed with him last year as a leader and don't think that he's capable of being an elite team leader, which is what this team needs.

 

Of course, if they get Ortiz and those other guys, count me in.

Beltran would give the team more versatility, but he's only a year younger than Ortiz.

[User Name]

I like what Ortiz has given all of us for years' date=' but I wasn't overly impressed with him last year as a leader and [b']don't think that he's capable of being an elite team leader, which is what this team needs.[/b]

 

What do you mean by this?

[example1]

Beltran would give the team more versatility' date=' but he's only a year younger than Ortiz.[/quote']

 

He plays outfield. He runs decently. He hits for power, has good OBP, and is a switch-hitter. I think he might be the better option, but probably not at twice the cost. It's a close one for me.

 

In particular, Ortiz last year looked like he really had made a step with his plate discipline. I saw him not chase a lot of pitches that he chased in previous years. I don't know what caused that change but it was impressive.