2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

The problem here is' date=' that they (from what i have read) have insurance on his contract, meaning a significant amount of that money (or all of it) is covered by said insurance. That said, those 13.83 million still count towards the salary tax calculation.[/quote']

 

I see, so... we are clogged and there is no way to scape from his contract in order to avoid the luxury tax, right? Only via trade and we need that a team eats it all (in order to do not count toward our salary tax calculation), which of course not gonna happen.

[jung]

User is correct in both posts.

 

I do not believe they will overspend the cap in 2012 because the needs they can realistically deal with this year are fairly specific and not that burdensome from a cost perspective. They would stand a very good chance of going over if they actually made an offer to CJ or Buerhle that brought one of them here but I just don't expect that.

 

They don't have much in the way of cap room but I would hope they can fit a back of the rotation starter with bullpen help and a RF RH bat although I wish I really knew at this point if they are going to gamble on Kalish in RF. Geez though, 3 LH bats in the outfield. If they go with Kalish then that probably means every dime they have will go to pitching. I could understand that. They are I am sure smart enough not to overrun it by just a little bit as that could be a real blunder without knowing what the 2013 cap number will be. You don't want to cost yourself a year over the cap for a couple million $ because if you then go over in the next year you get hit for 30% in that second consecutive year.

 

I do think there is a chance that they might bust it in 2013 although we don't know what the 2013 number is yet. I would guess it will be something like $205M. With the amount of pitching talent coming up in the next FA market and the cost of top notch SP being what it is, I would think there is a chance they would bust it in 2013. That could work out if they don't go over this year and could wiggle back under again in 2014.

[a700hitter]

I think it should be painfully obvious to all of us that Theo left this team in a bad budget bind. The owners will have a dilemna. They'll have to decide whether to stay within the constraints of the luxury tax limits and go salary neutral in their moves. If they choose that path, I truly think we will not be watching any meaningful baseball in September. Their alternative is not an easy one- break out the money go over the cap and make a strong run at the post season. Personally, I hope they do the latter. I don't think JH wants to finish out of the post season for a 3rd year in a row.

[User Name]

Did Theo Epstein convince this guy to enter a Ponzi Scheme or something?

[jung]

It will certainly be very interesting to see how the Sox handle this for 2012. Given the effort they made to first get back down from the 40% tax to 0% and are set up for only paying at the 22.5% rate if they do bust the threshold again, I don't think they will go near the 30% rate with a 10' pole.

 

I don't believe for one second that they lucked their way down from 40% in the WS year to 0% and then 22.5% in 2010. Remember that by waiting to sign AGons they even used a loophole nobody has ever used before to stay under the threshold for the 2011 season avoiding the 30% tax in 2011 . Which is in part why I am thinking they will avoid it this year.

 

The only guys they can consider that would put them in jeopardy of busting the threshold given their needs would be either Buerhle or Wilson because those guys alone won't get it done but they will cost enough to push them over when you add the other player salaries they will need I would think. Do either of those two guys plus what other players you can bring in to fill the holes they have get you there is 2012 such that you can fall back under the threshold for 2013?

 

Lately leaning to trying to analyze this from the perspective of Sox not trading Ells which would seem to make 2013 the optimal year for the Sox to bust the threshold if they are going to, simply because there will be so many more pitching options available to them that year.

[seabeachfred]

No doubt Cherington is going to have to be creative in order to get the team up to par for 2012, but he better be aware of one salient thing. Bringing back the same old ensemble of 2011 simply will not cut it. The question is would Henry be satisfied to be mired in the muck of no playoffs for the third year in a row? Frankly, I'm beginning to think he has lost interest in the team, or thinks the fans shold be satisfield with 2004 and 2007 and just shut up and support the team. Wrong on the latter John and if you have lost interest t urn it over to Lucchino and let's see him handle the load---provided, of course,that you do put up a modicum amount of cash for some new blood.

 

Good health and comebacks along with some smart signings and a key trade or two could net us the means to make a serious run next season. My question is this: IS THERE A SERIOUS WILL TO WIN THAT EXISTS IN THE FRONT OFFICE or not?????

[User Name]

Should i castigate here Fred?

[jung]

Judging from the bump in revenue growth the Yanks got from their building a new stadium you might think the best thing the Sox could do would be to blow up Fenway and build a new park.

[Laser Show]

Judging from the bump in revenue growth the Yanks got from their building a new stadium you might think the best thing the Sox could do would be to blow up Fenway and build a new park.

 

Holding on to Fenway is akin to keeping Wakefield and Varitek around. It's all sentimentality. We NEED a new Fenway, 37000 cramped seats is not nearly enough for an area like Boston.

[example1]

The question is would Henry be satisfied to be mired in the muck of no playoffs for the third year in a row?

 

So you expect another September collapse of historic proporations? No, of course not. That was completely without precedent and will not be repeated. Reason would dictate that the 2011 team, left unaltered, would make the playoffs. Let's stop being silly here Fred. Seriously.

 

The results from 2011 were not a reflection of the actual quality of the team. Going simply by whether they made the playoffs or not is a really poor way of evaluating talent. It is worse than looking at team batting average or some other archane statistic. It is looking at results that will not be replicated.

 

 

Frankly, I'm beginning to think he has lost interest in the team, or thinks the fans shold be satisfield with 2004 and 2007 and just shut up and support the team.

 

I don't think the team is making decisions based on whether some small portion of "realist" fans will or will not jump off a cliff based on their decisions about spending more. It is so freaking selfish to say that Henry, who spent hundreds of millions on new players just LAST YEAR has lost interest in winning. Another example of catastrophizing at its best.

 

Wrong on the latter John and if you have lost interest t urn it over to Lucchino and let's see him handle the load---provided, of course,that you do put up a modicum amount of cash for some new blood.

 

Good health and comebacks along with some smart signings and a key trade or two could net us the means to make a serious run next season. My question is this: IS THERE A SERIOUS WILL TO WIN THAT EXISTS IN THE FRONT OFFICE or not?????

 

Do you really question whether the Red Sox have a "serious will to win" in their FO? A team that spends millions on draft picks and expensive international FAs, while making the biggest splash in the 2010-2011 offseason, you're REALLY going to ask that.

 

Just read what you are writing man, and ask if it REALLY reflects the "realist" perspective that you so strongly believe you have.

[User Name]

The Red Sox have supposedly been asking the White Sox about both Gavin Floyd and John Danks.

 

Floyd seems like a good fit for the Sox. I wonder what it would take to relieve the Sox of both Floyd and Quentin?

[iortiz]

After reading carefuly jung's posts, I have only one thing to say, Goddammit Theo Epstain, we are damn clogged in our 2012 books. I'm starting to think that we won't overpass the 2012 threshold.

 

This 2012 gonna be tough. I hate to say it, but I simply do not see how we can set up WS contender team next year if we do not overspent the luxury cap.

 

Since Wilson and Buehrle sound more like a dream or a good wish, I don't expect a solid 2012 rotation. Our hopes will rest on Becket, Lester and Buch and hope that they perform solid and do not get an injury or s*** the bed... And whoever the 4th and 5th SPs are, I see a huge risk if we don't bring at least a guy named Buehrle or Wilson, but again, it sounds more like a good wish after reading Jung's posts. Plus who knows how Youk, Crawford and Salty will perform... Call me pessimist, but I see a lot red flags.

 

BTW We also need at least a RF, Closer, DH, BP arms, pitching depth. Complicated.

 

Cherington, you better be creative, dude.

[jung]

Gee I don't know User but I like that better than hunting after Buehrle who apparently is not going to go anywhere anyway unless somebody makes him an offer he can't refuse. I don't know if I want another LH starter encouraging RH lineups in Fenway so I guess I like Floyd fine, maybe Danks also. I am sure there will be detractors but the money would likely be right if something could be done with either or maybe both.

[User Name]

What if the Sox trade Ellsbury and another piece to the White Sox for Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin, then move Kalish to CF, Quentin to RF/DH, and use up the rest of their money (plus the savings from Ellsbury) to finish up the roster?

[Laser Show]

What if the Sox trade Ellsbury and another piece to the White Sox for Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin' date=' then move Kalish to CF, Quentin to RF/DH, and use up the rest of their money (plus the savings from Ellsbury) to finish up the roster?[/quote']

 

What about Carlos Lee and Wandy Rodriguez/Brett Myers? Lee could play LF, moving Crawford to CF and Kalish stays in RF?

[User Name]

What about Carlos Lee and Wandy Rodriguez? Lee could play LF' date=' moving Crawford to CF and Kalish stays in RF?[/quote']

 

Please no, God no. Lee's skills have eroded to the point where he's near negative value. He also makes more money than what Papi/Quentin will make combined next year.

[RonVermette]

The Sox have the strongest offensive/defensive lineup in the league(assuming Orty is signed).

A solid #4 starter is the only true necessity, except for strengthening the bullpen which every team has to do every year. It's only because of the inexplicable September collapse that there's so much talk about blowing up the team.

[User Name]

The Sox have the strongest offensive/defensive lineup in the league(assuming Orty is signed).

A solid #4 starter is the only true necessity, except for strengthening the bullpen which every team has to do every year. It's only because of the inexplicable September collapse that there's so much talk about blowing up the team.

 

This.

 

Starter, RHH OF, Closer, couple bullpen arms, insurance starters. /offseason.

[iortiz]

This.

 

Starter, RHH OF, Closer, couple bullpen arms, insurance starters. /offseason.

 

missed the DH.

 

But still the question is: How much money will be available in order to cover with quality/solid each needed position?, that is my concern.

[User Name]

missed the DH.

 

But still the question is: How much money will be available in order to cover with quality/solid each needed position, that is my concern.

 

The RHH OF can share most of the DH duties with Lavarnway and Youkilis, who sorely needs it.

 

They need to make a trade. As mentioned above, Ellsbury + for Floyd/Quentin may solve a lot of problems for the Sox while saving them some money in the process.

[Laser Show]

The RHH OF can share most of the DH duties with Lavarnway and Youkilis, who sorely needs it.

 

They need to make a trade. As mentioned above, Ellsbury + for Floyd/Quentin may solve a lot of problems for the Sox while saving them some money in the process.

 

The Mariners still match up very well with us. It's possible that we can pry a young arm or 2 from them, there's Pineda, Vargas, Paxton, Hultzen (the #2 pick in the 2011 draft) and Taijuan Walker. Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes are other highly touted prospects in their system. I think they'll hold onto Felix, but who knows.

 

The M's need a DH, LF, 3B, and SS, and they need LHH to take advantage of Safeco. I'm sure we have what each other need and want.

[jung]

Hum, I guess $2.5M or so would come off the books for Ells, I think. I would toss AGons into the DH pool as well as he clearly wore down in the second half last year as well.

 

White Sox have plenty of money to spend under the cap, a solid revenue stream and a favorable lease arrangement from the State of Illinois. So, paying Ells would not be a problem for them. There could be a workable deal here.

[iortiz]

The RHH OF can share most of the DH duties with Lavarnway and Youkilis, who sorely needs it.

 

They need to make a trade. As mentioned above, Ellsbury + for Floyd/Quentin may solve a lot of problems for the Sox while saving them some money in the process.

 

when you put "+" you mean prospects?, Elsbury + Prospects for Floyd (+ 4 ERA) and Quentin (.252/.346/.836).? I think that Kalish or even Reddick can achieve Quentin's numbers... I'm not sure man, yes, I don't see Ells putting 2011 numbers again but I also see him putting something around (.300/.340/.800)... As I said, I only would trade an elite every day player for an elite SP and straight up like Cain or Felix, no prospects no nothing... but I got you.

 

Anyway, gonna be complicated, you bet.

[Laser Show]

when you put "+" you mean prospects?, Elsbury + Prospects for Floyd (+ 4 ERA) and Quentin (.252/.346/.836).? I think that Kalish or even Reddick can achieve Quentin's numbers... I'm not sure man, yes, I don't see Ells putting 2011 numbers again but I also see him putting something around (.300/.340/.800)... As I said, I only would trade an elite every day player for an elite SP and straight up like Cain or Felix, no prospects no nothing... but I got you.

 

Anyway, gonna be complicated, you bet.

 

One problem is, those teams know we need pitching, so they have some leverage on us.

[jung]

Good catch iortiz I did not comment on the "+" part. I guess when I think about the + part of Ells+ I would not want that to be much at all but I don't have a name in mind that I could drop into that "+" category.

[User Name]

Hum, I guess $2.5M or so would come off the books for Ells, I think. I would toss AGons into the DH pool as well as he clearly wore down in the second half last year as well.

 

White Sox have plenty of money to spend under the cap, a solid revenue stream and a favorable lease arrangement from the State of Illinois. So, paying Ells would not be a problem for them. There could be a workable deal here.

 

Floyd would make 7 million next year, 3 million less than the proposed 10 million Ells would supposedly make in arbitration.

 

I still think that getting Quentin (projected 7.5 million in arb) in an Ellsbury trade would be ideal. Since they would cost 14.5 combined, which is far less than what Beltran+ Ellsbury would have made, and would allow the Sox additional breathing room for other moves.

[User Name]

when you put "+" you mean prospects?, Elsbury + Prospects for Floyd (+ 4 ERA) and Quentin (.252/.346/.836).? I think that Kalish or even Reddick can achieve Quentin's numbers... I'm not sure man, yes, I don't see Ells putting 2011 numbers again but I also see him putting something around (.300/.340/.800)... As I said, I only would trade an elite every day player for an elite SP and straight up like Cain or Felix, no prospects no nothing... but I got you.

 

Anyway, gonna be complicated, you bet.

 

But Quentin's a RHH that mashes lefties, and i honestly don't think Reddick has the OBP abilities to reach that level of production. If you're talking about saving money to spend on more pitching, that may be the way to go.

[jung]

One problem is, those teams know we need pitching, so they have some leverage on us.

That is correct. However there are teams out there that need better offensive marketing center piece as well and it would that aspect of Ells being dangled out there that would to some degree offset our need for pitching.

[Laser Show]

But Quentin's a RHH that mashes lefties' date=' and i honestly don't think Reddick has the OBP abilities to reach that level of production. If you're talking about saving money to spend on more pitching, that may be the way to go.[/quote']

 

Are we looking at the same Carlos Quentin? I'm seeing a career .228/.347/.458/.805 hitter against LHP.

[User Name]

Are we looking at the same Carlos Quentin? I'm seeing a career .228/.347/.458/.805 hitter against LHP.

 

2011: .942 OPS.

 

Quentin's career numbers against LHP were curious there for a couple years (reverse splits) but that usually normalizes, as they started doing last year.