2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

It's easy to see that awful April and September and just give the team an F. But during those middle 4 months, we were absolutely the best team in baseball, by a mile. We didn't even have 4 of our best players, Drew, Crawford, Buchholz, and Youkilis, either due to injury or complete ineffectiveness.

 

We won 90 games and finished the the 8th best record in baseball, even after the April and September stretches where we went a combined 10-31. Aside from those woeful 41 games, we went 80-41 which would've translated into roughly a 107-55 record.

 

Even though we collapsed, I would consider this season a success. We were on pace for the best record in baseball up until the last month, don't blow up a team because of a meltdown.

 

After giving it some thought, I have a few ideas:

 

Trade Ellsbury for a SP.

Let Ortiz, Tek, and Wakefield walk.

Try to pry Jeff Francoeur from KC. He was a 20/20 guy last year, has a cannon in RF, and is just now entering his prime. He'll also be a lot cheaper than Cuddyer or Beltran and hits from the right side.

Make Kalish our every day CF. This could mean packaging Reddick in the deal for a SP or for Francoeur.

Convert Aceves into a starter.

Re-sign Papelbon.

 

Our offense suffers a bit, but that wasn't our problem.

C- Salty / Lavarnway

1B- Gonzo

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro

3B- Youk

LF- Crawford

CF- Kalish

RF- Francoeur

DH- Lavarnway

 

SP- Lester

SP- Beckett

SP- *Return from Ellsbury

SP- Buchholz

SP- Aceves

For a guy who doesn't want to blow up the team, you did just that. You got rid of the team's 2 most consistent hitters- both All Stars- and replaced them with a AAA player coming off spinal neck surgery and another guy with about 12 major league AB's. This would not be an improvement. This team would be fighting with Toronto for 3rd place. What would you consider "blowing up" the team-- a real bomb? LOL!

[Laser Show]

That goes for Drew' date=' too. He's probably going to retire anyways.[/quote']

 

Yeah, probably.

 

I'd be open to the idea of starting Kalish AND Reddick, but why do they both have to be LHHs?!?

[User Name]

Yeah, probably.

 

I'd be open to the idea of starting Kalish AND Reddick, but why do they both have to be LHHs?!?

 

The Sox need an OF that can hit RH for that exact same reason.

[Palodios]

For a guy who doesn't want to blow up the team' date=' you did just that. You got rid of the team's 2 most consistent hitters- both All Stars- and replaced them with a AAA player coming off spinal neck surgery and another guy with about 12 major league AB's. This would not be an improvement. This team would be fighting with Toronto for 3rd place. What would you consider "blowing up" the team-- a real bomb? LOL![/quote']

 

When the rotation will consist of Felix/Cain, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, this team won't need to be the best offensive team in the majors. If the pitching is healthy in July, you pick up one big bat, or maybe you get lucky with prospects, and this team is world series bound. Look at the offense that San Francisco won with in 2010.

[Laser Show]

The Sox need an OF that can hit RH for that exact same reason.

 

I know, that's why it's impossible for them to both start. One of them has to go, but I'm not sure which. I'd probably keep Kalish, but it'd be a very tough call.

[User Name]

When the rotation will consist of Felix/Cain' date=' Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, this team won't need to be the best offensive team in the majors. If the pitching is healthy in July, you pick up one big bat, or maybe you get lucky with prospects, and this team is world series bound. Look at the offense that San Francisco won with in 2010.[/quote']

 

And they could still be if Crawford rebounds, Youk stays healthy, and they get a decent RF.

[Laser Show]

For a guy who doesn't want to blow up the team' date=' you did just that. You got rid of the team's 2 most consistent hitters- both All Stars- and replaced them with a AAA player coming off spinal neck surgery and another guy with about 12 major league AB's. This would not be an improvement. This team would be fighting with Toronto for 3rd place. What would you consider "blowing up" the team-- a real bomb? LOL![/quote']

 

I'm not blowing up the roster. I'm trading a player that is probably at his peak in terms of value, for an ace, which we need. I'm trying to get a consistent RH OF. Then I'm letting go of Ortiz, which IS a difficult decision, because the fielders need a break to DH every now and again. A dedicated DH is not the greatest idea.

[iortiz]

I only would trade Ells for a guy named Kershaw/Felix/Shields/Cain and in a heartbeat.

[ORS]

Well, maybe I'm strict about this

 

We don't grade with letters around here but with numbers (scale from 0-10) and depends on the degree and school you are attending to in order to pass a course. I'd say that the average grade in order to pass in Mexico is 7/10 at Collage level (Think abut 10 questions/problems and 7 answered well).

 

Said that, my grades for Epstein would be:

 

2003-2008, 9.5 (Very Good) Thanks Theo.

2009-2011, 6 (Failure) Cya Theo.

Overall, 7.5 (Just above average) Move on since tendency.

 

An "A", and a "D", like I suggested.....only your math is way off getting to your overall.

 

There's 6 years in the first group....so it weighs more into the overall average. There's 3 in the second. Nice 2 to 1 ratio.

 

(9.5 * 2) + 6 = 25 / 3 = 8.33

 

More above average than you are evaluating him to have been.

[ORS]

When the rotation will consist of Felix/Cain' date=' Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, this team won't need to be the best offensive team in the majors. If the pitching is healthy in July, you pick up one big bat, or maybe you get lucky with prospects, and this team is world series bound. Look at the offense that San Francisco won with in 2010 [b']...and didn't go to the playoffs with in 2011[/b]

Just saying. There's two sides to that coin.

[Palodios]

Just saying. There's two sides to that coin.

 

Sure, but look at the offense that the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs with in 2011. Trading Ellsbury is about balancing the team. Pedroia, A-gon, Youk, Crawford, Scutaro, Reddick/Kalish, Salty/Lavs with an addition of a quality RHH RF is still pretty good.

[ORS]

Sure' date=' but look at the offense that the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs with in 2011. Trading Ellsbury is about balancing the team. Pedroia, A-gon, Youk, Crawford, Scutaro, Reddick/Kalish, Salty/Lavs with an addition of a quality RHH RF is still pretty good.[/quote']

It is, but I still don't like the idea of trading an everyday star for a pitcher.

[iortiz]

An "A", and a "D", like I suggested.....only your math is way off getting to your overall.

 

There's 6 years in the first group....so it weighs more into the overall average. There's 3 in the second. Nice 2 to 1 ratio.

 

(9.5 * 2) + 6 = 25 / 3 = 8.33

 

More above average than you are evaluating him to have been.

 

Well, since 7.5 and 8.3 are generally rounded to 8.0, 8.0 is ok for me

 

EDIT: Maybe the equivalence would be A (10-9) B (8-7) C (6-5) D (3-4) F (0-2)..

 

said that we don't defer that much in our opinions ORS , right?

[Palodios]

It is' date=' but I still don't like the idea of trading an everyday star for a pitcher.[/quote']

 

It is a difficult choice. If the Red Sox can get quality SP without it (Jackson, Buerhle) I'd definitely avoid it, but those guys may end up being massively overpaid. I just see no better way to improve the rotation without gutting the farm. If I recall, you were involved in one of the Ellsbury-trade discussions earlier, so I won't rehash it.

[iortiz]

It is a difficult choice. If the Red Sox can get quality SP without it (Jackson' date=' Buerhle) I'd definitely avoid it, but those guys may end up being massively overpaid. I just see no better way to improve the rotation without gutting the farm. If I recall, you were involved in one of the Ellsbury-trade discussions earlier, so I won't rehash it.[/quote']

 

If we sign Ortiz, and Crawford and Youk perform as their career numbers and stay healthy, and Redick or Kalish consolidate, I'd trade Ells for a solid SP (+-3.8 ERA) and who knows, maybe you could get a couple of prospects as well.

[jung]

I wish one stud pitcher was all that the Sox needed. I still think the Sox are better off getting one guy for the back end of the rotation just ahead of what appears to be our candidate for moving to the rotation, Aceves and then add some relief and wait for next year to get a stud starting pitcher. There are only two real studs in this FA class, Wilson and Buerhle so they will both end up getting overpaid on that score alone. If they were in next years class of FA SP they would probably not even be high on that list. There are so many in next year's list that even last year renegotiations won't thin that list by much.

 

 

 

Whether Ells is part of bring some pitching here or not, I think it more likely that we end up with some package deal of players for Ells if we trade him at all.

[a700hitter]

When the rotation will consist of Felix/Cain' date=' Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, this team won't need to be the best offensive team in the majors. If the pitching is healthy in July, you pick up one big bat, or maybe you get lucky with prospects, and this team is world series bound. Look at the offense that San Francisco won with in 2010.[/quote']And if the pitching rotation suffers one injury (and it always does), we will be back to the lousy tgin staff of last season, but with 2 less big bats. The lineup is what kept the 2011 team afloat until September. Adding 1 stud pitcher is not going to fix the Red Sox pitching woes. It will take more than that.

[Laser Show]

And if the pitching rotation suffers one injury (and it always does)' date=' we will be back to the lousy tgin staff of last season, but with 2 less big bats. The lineup is what kept the 2011 team afloat until September. Adding 1 stud pitcher is not going to fix the Red Sox pitching woes. It will take more than that.[/quote']

 

These what ifs are getting really old. Don't base your lineup and rotation on what ifs. That's why you have a bench and depth. Injuries always happen, and they just exploit our weakness, depth. Our rotation and bullpen were okay, until you realize we had nobody to fill the roles of those who got hurt or were ineffective.

[Palodios]

And if the pitching rotation suffers one injury (and it always does)' date=' we will be back to the lousy tgin staff of last season, but with 2 less big bats. The lineup is what kept the 2011 team afloat until September. Adding 1 stud pitcher is not going to fix the Red Sox pitching woes. It will take more than that.[/quote']

 

Subtracting one bat from this lineup won't kill the team. Leaving the pitching staff as-is will.

[Nirvana]

Trade Ells for a SP? No way.

 

SP are more prone to injury, and you never know how a player can react when moving to a different market, a la Lackey, Crawford, and Renteria.

[a700hitter]

These what ifs are getting really old. Don't base your lineup and rotation on what ifs. That's why you have a bench and depth. Injuries always happen' date=' and they just exploit our weakness, depth. Our rotation and bullpen were okay, until you realize we had nobody to fill the roles of those who got hurt or were ineffective.[/quote']... And getting 1 stud pitcher doesn't address the depth issue that would surely rear its head once again in 2012.

[a700hitter]

Subtracting one bat from this lineup won't kill the team. Leaving the pitching staff as-is will.

His plan subtracts the 2 most consistent bats of 2011-- Ells and Ortiz and replaces them with Kalish and Lavarnway. That would be 2 big bats departing. I didn't notice him bringing in a big replacement bat.

[Laser Show]

... And getting 1 stud pitcher doesn't address the depth issue that would surely rear its head once again in 2012.

 

But it certainly helps.

 

His plan subtracts the 2 most consistent bats of 2011-- Ells and Ortiz and replaces them with Kalish and Lavarnway. That would be 2 big bats departing. I didn't notice him bringing in a big replacement bat.

 

I had Francoeur in there, but as he and KC have a love-love relationship, I'm thinking it will be Beltran now.

 

Before 2011, Ellsbury was never a "big bat", and it's likely he will regress back to normal next year. We might as well get what we can for him now. I think we'd be able to get a solid SP.

[Palodios]

His plan subtracts the 2 most consistent bats of 2011-- Ells and Ortiz and replaces them with Kalish and Lavarnway. That would be 2 big bats departing. I didn't notice him bringing in a big replacement bat.

 

Most of us who want to drop Ortiz and trade Ellsbury are working under the assumption that a RHH RF would be picked up to replace the production of Ortiz. I explicitly mentioned picking up an extra bat in my post.

[a700hitter]

But it certainly helps.

 

 

 

I had Francoeur in there, but as he and KC have a love-love relationship, I'm thinking it will be Beltran now.

 

Before 2011, Ellsbury was never a "big bat", and it's likely he will regress back to normal next year. We might as well get what we can for him now. I think we'd be able to get a solid SP.

... Or maybe Ellsbury has matured as a hitter and he will continue to perform at very high levels. How are you so sure that he will regress. He's just hitting his prime years.

 

If you are going to get Beltran, that would be a big replacement bat, but he will probably be more costly than Ortiz.

[iortiz]

First off gentlemen, We have to make to ourselves the next questions before go and sign/trade someone.

 

1.- Who is under our control? How long are they committed?

2.- Who do we want to keep? What are their career/last 3 year/last year numbers?

3.- What should we do with those who we do not want to keep? Trade? Eat their contracts? Mix? What?

4.- What do we need?, again, not what do we want? but What do we REALLY damn need?, in other words, what has been killing this team the last three years and we haven't fulfilled?

5.- How much is our budget? Do we want to go over the luxury tax cap? If yes? How much?

6.- What are we dispose to give up or how much do we want to invest in order to fill our real needs (you just can't win 'em all, this is business, you have to give up something in order to get what you really need (cash or players))

7.- Once answered the above, who is ready in our farm? No one? what is available in the market? What are their numbers/cost? What the player/agent/team want in order to sign/trade?

8.- What else is the nice to have? Do we still have the resources (after get what we really need)

 

I don't have the accurate data for the 1st, 5th, 7th questions, somebody?

[a700hitter]

I have read that there will be no Luxury Tax limit for 2012. Is that accurate?

[Palodios]

I have read that there will be no Luxury Tax limit for 2012. Is that accurate?

 

When the collective bargaining agreement expired, the luxury tax is not longer in effect. From what I've read, it sounds like all the team execs simply assume that it will be back, and base spending on that assumption.

[seabeachfred]

I actually think there are two eras of within Theo's time here that differ by pretty wide margins and I don't think Theo is himself responsible for that. I think that there was more focus on winning championships until the Sox won it a second time in 2007. After 2007 there was much more focus on expanding the Fenway Sports Enterprises and the Sox as a brand as a marketing tool and as a revenue machine.

 

Theo did reasonably well in the early part of his stay here and was particularly outstanding with regard to rebuilding the Sox farm system. I would give him a B+ for that period.

 

However from 2008 till today the focus on the brand and marketing appears to have translated into less effort in maintaining the farm system and more on big name free agents. Here Theo has simply not done well. Even his FA successes have been with smaller less PR intense deals. A fair number of those have worked out well, like Ortiz and more recently Aceves and now Scuts. However the big name FA signings of the past few years have all been busts really. Dice-K , Jenks and Lackey are horrible deals. Lackey should never have been brought here. The same can be said for Jenks and the whole screwy PR driven mess that is the Dice-K deal is exhibit A for the way the Sox have viewed FA signings through the prism of marketing. Drew was a bust. Crawford is a horrible deal no matter how you cut it. There is not a single aspect of the Crawford deal that is redeeming and that would be true regardless of how he plays. AGons has had a great year but when you look at how signing AGons effected the direction the Sox had to take with regard to other potential opportunities, I have a hard time calling that deal a success particularly in light of what I think was a propensity for Theo to plan based around getting AGons here. I think Theo cut off other opportunities to reshape the team while they were stillborn. Didn't the AGons deal feel like a forgone conclusion when it finally happened? Much like the Drew deal I think the AGons deal was another that Theo fell in love with. I am not so sure that Theo falls in love with the actual player as much as he falls in love with a particular deal.

 

Now look at where we are. We are stuck with a bunch of everyday player big money contracts one or two good, many bad....recent pitching FA deals that are all bad, with the exception of Aceves.....a depleted farm system with no pitchers really ready to help fill the gap and little money to use in the FA market. We may well be stuck saying goodbye to Ortiz without really being able to replace his bat because we need his money to sign pitchers. So for years 2008-2011 the best grade I can give Theo is a D. The only reason I am not giving him an F is because I think where we are today is a failure of the organization in total including Theo and an F might say that this all should be put at Theo's doorstep.

 

So my split grade for Theo is a B+ for the first semester followed by a D for the second.

 

Good post Jung.....now I'm not speaking for anyone else but myself because the Theo boosters are going to be royally pissed at you but I find what you wrote to me pretty much the things I have believed. I have always thought that after we won in 2007 it was if Henry said "WE'VE GIVEN THE FANS WHAT THEY WANT AND THEY NOW SHOULD BE SATISFIED; TIME TO CONCENTRATE ON OTHER THINGS". As for Epstein some of his free agent signings in the rotation in 2009 (Smoltz and Penny) and some of his relief dregs (Schoenweis, Cabrera, Jenks etc) have been disasters par excellance.

 

Now, as you said, we find ourselves trying toput enough money together to either sign a top notch free agent pitcher, which, I might add, there doesn't seem to be any I would catergorize as such, or make a trade that could cost us one or two of our better players. In the meantime there is Cherington fiddling and faddling, still unable to name a manager while theRed Sox edifice is still on fire.

[User Name]

Now' date=' as you said, we find ourselves trying toput enough money together to either sign a top notch free agent pitcher, which, I might add, there doesn't seem to be any I would catergorize as such, or make a trade that could cost us one or two of our better players. In the meantime there is Cherington fiddling and faddling, still unable to name a manager while theRed Sox edifice is still on fire.[/quote']

 

So what should Cherington do? Pick a manager with a roll of the dice, so that if that manager fails, the same fans and media who are asking for quick action hastily move on to crucify him?

 

Is there some type of situation where you can be satisfied in this instance? Picks a bad manager by rushing the search, he's an idiot, takes his time picking a manager, he's an idiot.

 

Can't have it both ways.