2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[SoxSport]

From MLBRumors: The Os are about to hire Dan Duquette as GM. Apparently has established good Latin and Asian connections. The guy doesn't get enough credit for bringing in most of the players who the '04 championship. Never got along with the media. Not an issue in Baltimore--or most places outside of Boston and NY.

 

The Giants are an excellent trading partner for the Red Sox, with their need for outfielders and an abundance of starting pitching. Vogelsong for Reddick or Kalish?

 

The Phillies are after Cuddyer--still another RHd OF bat. The Sox could have an advantage with the DH/RF

platoon option.

[Elktonnick]

From MLBRumors: The Os are about to hire Dan Duquette as GM. Apparently has established good Latin and Asian connections. The guy doesn't get enough credit for bringing in most of the players who the '04 championship. Never got along with the media. Not an issue in Baltimore--or most places outside of Boston and NY.

 

The Giants are an excellent trading partner for the Red Sox, with their need for outfielders and an abundance of starting pitching. Vogelsong for Reddick or Kalish?

 

The Phillies are after Cuddyer--still another RHd OF bat. The Sox could have an advantage with the DH/RF

platoon option.

 

The baseball media in Baltimore would treat Duquette okay. They realize what he is up against. It's the owner that they despise.

[commenter]

From MLBRumors: The Os are about to hire Dan Duquette as GM. Apparently has established good Latin and Asian connections. The guy doesn't get enough credit for bringing in most of the players who the '04 championship. Never got along with the media. Not an issue in Baltimore--or most places outside of Boston and NY.

 

The Giants are an excellent trading partner for the Red Sox, with their need for outfielders and an abundance of starting pitching. Vogelsong for Reddick or Kalish?

 

The Phillies are after Cuddyer--still another RHd OF bat. The Sox could have an advantage with the DH/RF

platoon option.

 

I'd rather trade with the Braves for one of their young starters that's ready for next year. They have a lot of pitchers that can be starting pitchers next year -- Hudson/Beachy/Hanson/Jurrjens who already have spots (unless Jurrjens is traded -- but I wouldn't want him. Too injury prone & a fly ball pitcher) but then they have Minor, Vizcaino, Teheran & Delgado who can fill the last spot. Plus they have Medlen, who could start as well. Their farm system is stacked with pitchers at every level. I would take any of Minor/Vizcaino/Teheran/Delgado/Medlen.

 

The thing with Vogelsong is, I think that his numbers were better than he actually is. I mean he's a good pitcher, but before this year, the best his ERA has ever been 4.43 and usually it was a lot higher than that.

[seabeachfred]

I think that whatever validity there is in the idea that the Sox did not want to see Theo go is based on the recognition that the issues that came to a head in 2011 where organization wide. They were bigger than Theo with plenty of blame to go around both above and below Theo's pay grade. However as we have often discussed here' date=' JH is not going to fire himself and JH NEEDS LL. If anything, giving Cherington the GM job tells us a good deal about how close to the vest JH and LL will be playing their cards for awhile and through Cherington, JH and LL have made no bones about telling us so.[/quote']

 

Jung, if by saying playing their cards close to their vest means that it's going to be continued business as usual they and us may be in for another real shock. Cherington has to show that he knows how to run the ship and the first test is hire a manager he has confidence in, one who is light year different in temperment from Francona and let him run the team in the dugout while he runs things from upstairs. There must be no micro-managing from the GM down to the dugout otherwise all we've done is exchange one errand carrier for another. The new skipper must be tough enough that he will not stand for the crap that went on this past season, and from Ben on up they must back him up.

[jung]

By "close to the vest" I was implying that they are not going to be very liberal with the $$$$ this trade and FA season. Cherington has as much as said so.

[a700hitter]

By "close to the vest" I was implying that they are not going to be very liberal with the $$$$ this trade and FA season. Cherington has as much as said so.

The FO makes a habit of lowering expectations. I put little stock in what Cherrington is saying publicly.

[jung]

Well I don't think they will be frugal with the $$$$ this year "because" Cherington said so. They have actual fiscal rational for being frugal with the $$$$ this offseason and Cherington may well be attempting to lower expectations.. I do expect JH to open the purse strings a little wider but if the Sox are going to make some sort of big deal this offseason I expect the money to come mainly from cutting payroll somewhere else.

[a700hitter]

Well I don't think they will be frugal with the $$$$ this year "because" Cherington said so. They have actual fiscal rational for being frugal with the $$$$ this offseason and Cherington may well be attempting to lower expectations.. I do expect JH to open the purse strings a little wider but if the Sox are going to make some sort of big deal this offseason I expect the money to come mainly from cutting payroll somewhere else.

$14 million coming off the books for Drew and $9 million for Cameron is a nice start.

[jung]

$14 million coming off the books for Drew and $9 million for Cameron is a nice start.

 

Agreed and I expect them to spend that money and I expect them to spend any other moneys they cut from payroll.

[a700hitter]

Agreed and I expect them to spend that money and I expect them to spend any other moneys they cut from payroll.

They should be able to re-sign Ortiz and Papelbon without increasing the 2012 payroll. Each made $12+ million in 2011. I can't imagine that the cost of both them would total more than $25 million in 2012.

[a700hitter]

The Phillies are after Cuddyer--still another RHd OF bat. The Sox could have an advantage with the DH/RF platoon option.

The Phillies have become the NL version of the Yankees. I wouldn't be surprised if they poached Reyes and let Rollins walk. Mets fans would open their veins.

[jung]

I am hoping the numbers don't get nutty for Paps. 3/39 would be OK and that number has been tossed about a good deal. I would be OK with that. I am guessing that anybody else that really wants him already knows they are likely to have to be at around that kind of money and I hope that does not push the $$$ higher for Paps. Signing him is fine. I just don't want to see them tossing Mariano money around for him.

 

I think Ortiz is in for a disappointment. I guess he is already sort of disappointed that the Sox did not do anything during the 5 day exclusive period but I surely did not expect them to do anything during those 5 days. Every day that goes by now probably makes Ortiz easier to digest.

[WhiskeyBreath]

$14 million coming off the books for Drew and $9 million for Cameron is a nice start.

 

That money is pretty much going to be put to use for Adrian's and Carl's bumps in salary for 2012.

[a700hitter]

That money is pretty much going to be put to use for Adrian's and Carl's bumps in salary for 2012.

There will be about $3 or 4 million left over. The 2011 payroll was at $161 million and the Luxury Tax threshold was $178 million. It is very possible that there will be no Luxury tax limit in 2012, and even if there is it will be higher than $178 million, so we have a decent amount of room, and I think they will be willing to spend to make the necessary improvements.

[example1]

There will be about $3 or 4 million left over. The 2011 payroll was at $161 million and the Luxury Tax threshold was $178 million. It is very possible that there will be no Luxury tax limit in 2012' date=' and even if there is it will be higher than $178 million, so we have a decent amount of room, and I think they will be willing to spend to make the necessary improvements.[/quote']

 

Ellsbury's arbitration should make up for that, along with Bard's arb and a few others.

 

I will be really surprised if they decide to spend much more money. We will know what the FO thinks based on how aggressively they feel they need to pursue FAs in this market.

[a700hitter]

Ellsbury's arbitration should make up for that, along with Bard's arb and a few others.

 

I will be really surprised if they decide to spend much more money. We will know what the FO thinks based on how aggressively they feel they need to pursue FAs in this market.

How will they do the bolded part of # 1 below without spending $?

 

I expect two things:

 

1) The Sox will not make enormous roster changes before 2012. Maybe a RF, and maybe another "known" SP or two, and some relievers, but no stars of the caliber of Gonzalez or Crawford.

 

2) The Sox will be seen by many "pundits" next year to at least be a playoff team, and possibly favored to win the AL East.

.

[example1]

How will they do the bolded part of # 1 below without spending $?

 

They could start by letting Ortiz go and replace him with Lavarnway and/or a RF like Beltran, who kills two birds with one stone.

 

I think they will have to spend money to fix the holes they have, I just think they will be as conservative as they can be and not blow a hole in the wallet as an overreaction to the collapse in 2011. Hence, Reyes, Wilson, etc., are likely off the table.

 

A guy like Darvish could make a bit more sense if they want to make a bigger splash because they can at least spend the money off the tax.

[a700hitter]

They could start by letting Ortiz go and replace him with Lavarnway and/or a RF like Beltran, who kills two birds with one stone.

 

I think they will have to spend money to fix the holes they have, I just think they will be as conservative as they can be and not blow a hole in the wallet as an overreaction to the collapse in 2011. Hence, Reyes, Wilson, etc., are likely off the table.

 

A guy like Darvish could make a bit more sense if they want to make a bigger splash because they can at least spend the money off the tax.

Replacing Ortiz is one way to go. If Ortiz is not retained, they will need a premium bat. Beltran should foot the bill, but it looks like the Yanks will pursue Beltran driving up the price. Lavarnway is not a 2012 replacement for Ortiz. I'll be happy if he breaks camp as the back up catcher and eventually win the starting position during the season from the barely adequate but tall Saltalamachia.

[jung]

I wish Sox revenue was growing a bit better because I do think even though the Sox are really tight at the bottom line these days that JH will make increases in payroll on a percentage basis relative to revenue. Unfortunately revenue was only projected to grow by about 2-3% in 2011 and the bottom line really suffered in 2011 due to the increases in payroll outstripping increases in revenue. I have not seen numbers yet for 2012 and we probably won't see any projections until early in 2012. We are probably fortunate if in fact I am right and JH will at least peg payroll increases to a projected revenue increase as a little extra money to play with is better than no extra money to play with.

 

When I looked at the fiscal 2011 projections earlier this year you could really see the impact on income the added payroll was having on the projections and if I were JH I would not have been happy with those numbers.

 

If JH did use projected revenues to peg payroll increases I think a 5% increase in revenues would get them about another $8M in payroll to play with.

[a700hitter]

I wish Sox revenue was growing a bit better because I do think even though the Sox are really tight at the bottom line these days that JH will make increases in payroll on a percentage basis relative to revenue. Unfortunately revenue was only projected to grow by about 2-3% in 2011 and the bottom line really suffered in 2011 due to the increases in payroll outstripping increases in revenue. I have not seen numbers yet for 2012 and we probably won't see any projections until early in 2012. We are probably fortunate if in fact I am right and JH will at least peg payroll increases to a projected revenue increase as a little extra money to play with is better than no extra money to play with.

 

When I looked at the fiscal 2011 projections earlier this year you could really see the impact on income the added payroll was having on the projections and if I were JH I would not have been happy with those numbers.

Prediction: Revenues from Fenway Bricks will net us Jose Reyes.

[jung]

Sorry I was editing my earlier post twice as you were making your post 700 but if I am right and they can get revenues year over year up by closer to 5% (pretty modest growth) that should give them another $8M or so to play with.

[SCM33]

Players the Sox should target:

 

Ramon Hernandez, C

Aramis Ramirez, 3B

Mark Buehrle, SP

Michael Cuddyer, RF

Ryan Madsen, RP

Coco Crisp, backup OF

K-Rod, as a RP, not Closer

Frank Francisco, RP

Chien-Ming Wang, SP (worth the gamble for a 5 spot)

Jason Kubel, backup LF/RF/DH

Josh Willingham, backup OF/bench bat/backup DH

Ryan Doumit, C, DH, bench bat

Edwin Jackson, SP

[jung]

One thing that forcing yourself to deal with monetary limitations does is that you very quickly see how much mistakes hurt and how quickly you are forced to make value judgements about who you keep and who you don't....who you sign and who you let go by.

 

Even deals that you think have gone pretty well tie you down to $ commitments that you are just stuck with and they limit your ability to change things at least dramatically. It does not take too many really boneheaded moves to put yourself way behind the 8 ball. Even the $2M that you pay each to Wake and Tek mean something because that is $4M that you could put with some other moneys and plow into a pretty damned good ballplayer.

 

Should we really have tied ourselves to paying AGons $21M per year when we could have moved Youk to 1st, put Beltre at 3rd and pocketed $7M per year? $7M does not sound like much money until you realize that we could be very lucky if we see Cherington with an additional $8M over current 2011 player salary commitments to spend this year and that $8M plus $7M makes for one very very good player or two very solid front line performers. It also puts the Crawford deal in its proper perspective because it is very easy to sit back and just say "well as long as he performs well, so what if we are overpaying him by about $5M per year". Really....so what! When you put limits on yourself what you could have had for that $5M really causes you some pain...never mind what you could have had for the $20M per year. Then when you get to blunders like Lackey you are about ready to hang yourself once you force yourself to deal with limitations.

 

Lets do something with that $7M from not signing AGons and signing Beltre instead. Lets put it with $5M of the money we are paying Crawford. Does $12M put a pretty decent player out there in left field and leave us with $15M more from Crawford to do something with? I don't know. Swisher makes $9M. Granderson makes $8.5M. Lance Berkman makes $9M. Josh Hamilton makes $8M and Nelson Cruz makes $4M. Prefer better defense...Victorino makes $7.5M per. Do you think we could get a decent pitcher for $15M per or shore up the bullpen for $15M?

 

Clearly it is not this simple and nobody but nobody can get it right all the time. The player you need is not always right there for you to get but this does point out the folly of throwing money around in the FA market like some sort of drunken sailor as opposed to using your assets smartly and having the tiniest bit of patience and forethought about what you are doing. How costly it is to just always be shooting for the guy at the top of the list every damn time whether or not that is the guy you need or falling in love with a deal which I think we did with Drew and with AGons for that matter. Is making the biggest PR splash every damn time the best way to build a team that can win on the field?

 

PS Nice list Chin Music. A good effort I think.

[seabeachfred]

SWM put up a decent list of targets for 2012 and from that we could get the four guys I have said we need....a RH (not a LH ) hitting outfielder with some sock (Cuddyer is my guy), a good starting pitcher (could Madsen and Buerle both be gotten which could keep Aceves in the bullpen) and either one or two relief pitchers depending if we sign one or two starters. Don't all jump on me at once but I think we should resign Papelbon and let Ortiz walk. To do it the other way ignores our real needs and keeps us too lefthanded in the lineup, not to mention that it impedes Lavarnway's development into a starter for another year at least. First, though, Cherington must get off the dime and put a manager in place and that should not drag on for another two or three weeks.

 

I've seen a lot of names mentioned but I would like to see some of my friends out there zero in on their particular players they think we should get. We have to do it right this time in my opinion.

[seabeachfred]

I am hoping the numbers don't get nutty for Paps. 3/39 would be OK and that number has been tossed about a good deal. I would be OK with that. I am guessing that anybody else that really wants him already knows they are likely to have to be at around that kind of money and I hope that does not push the $$$ higher for Paps. Signing him is fine. I just don't want to see them tossing Mariano money around for him.

 

I think Ortiz is in for a disappointment. I guess he is already sort of disappointed that the Sox did not do anything during the 5 day exclusive period but I surely did not expect them to do anything during those 5 days. Every day that goes by now probably makes Ortiz easier to digest.

 

Jung---700 Hitter mentioned Drew and Cameron's money coming off the books that totals about $24 million dollars. We let Ortiz walk and that's another $12 million or so and that's pretty high bucks. For that we could resign Papelbon and get the other reinforcements we need.....a starting pitcher, RH hitting right fielder, and two relievers. Whatever else we get from letting low salary relics like Varitek and Wakefield is just a little extra gravy.

 

To me, signing Ortiz and letting Papelbon go hurts us more than helps us because it weakens us in the bullpen and keeps us too left handed in the lineup, especially if we do not sign a RH hitting outfielder. To me that puts us right back where we were when the season ended. Hopefully, Cherington and his bosses know and understand that.

[a700hitter]

Jung---700 Hitter mentioned Drew and Cameron's money coming off the books that totals about $24 million dollars. We let Ortiz walk and that's another $12 million or so and that's pretty high bucks. For that we could resign Papelbon and get the other reinforcements we need.....a starting pitcher, RH hitting right fielder, and two relievers. Whatever else we get from letting low salary relics like Varitek and Wakefield is just a little extra gravy.

 

To me, signing Ortiz and letting Papelbon go hurts us more than helps us because it weakens us in the bullpen and keeps us too left handed in the lineup, especially if we do not sign a RH hitting outfielder. To me that puts us right back where we were when the season ended. Hopefully, Cherington and his bosses know and understand that.

If we let Ortiz walk, we need to get another big bat or the lineup will take a big turn down. Beltran would probably cost more than Ortiz, so what would be gained. We can probably get Ortiz for $8 million per year-- good value.

[a700hitter]

I'd take a flyer on Wang. Normally, i am against dumpster diving, but Wang is still young and he looked pretty good at the end of last season.

[a700hitter]

Players the Sox should target:

 

Ramon Hernandez, C

Aramis Ramirez, 3B

Mark Buehrle, SP

Michael Cuddyer, RF

Ryan Madsen, RP

Coco Crisp, backup OF

K-Rod, as a RP, not Closer

Frank Francisco, RP

Chien-Ming Wang, SP (worth the gamble for a 5 spot)

Jason Kubel, backup LF/RF/DH

Josh Willingham, backup OF/bench bat/backup DH

Ryan Doumit, C, DH, bench bat

Edwin Jackson, SP

I've bolded the guys I like from your list.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Lmao oh man how I used to love CMW get f***ed up start after start with the Yankees.

[redsoxfan3]

If we let Ortiz walk' date=' we need to get another big bat or the lineup will take a big turn down. Beltran would probably cost more than Ortiz, so what would be gained. We can probably get Ortiz for $8 million per year-- good value.[/quote']

 

I agree here. Ortiz is getting older, I just hope we don't sign him for a 3 year deal. He is what now, 36? Maybe a 2 year deal with a club option for the 3rd. I want Papi back, but he is a cheaper option than Beltran. Although, if we sign Beltran to be out RF as well, we could substantially improve our offense.

 

I really like making a trade for Gio Gonzalez. I am liking his 3.12 ERA, and with actual offensive production behind him, he could easily be a 20 game winner. He is only 25 as well. I am really interested in seeing what the A's would want in return for him. If we have Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, and Gonzalez in the rotation, then that would be solid. I don't know if they are going to experiment with Aceves, Doubront, or Bard as a starter, but I would prefer to keep them in the pen and get two starters this offseason that are proven to complement Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz.

 

It is interesting to look into Jackson, Wang, Buehrle, Wilson, and Oswalt this offseason. Whatever happens with acquiring starting pitchers, it will definitely no doubt be an improvement from last season.