2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jung]

Surprised I have not seen anything posted here yet but the Sox Strength and Conditioning Coach apparently has been let go as of today.

[a700hitter]

I already provided the scenario. It may take some wheeling and dealing, and possibly a three team trade, but I think it is possible.

 

Here is a hypothetical-- send Beckett and 5 million to the Tigers for Schzerer and prospects. The Tigers probably could use a pitcher to bridge the gap between Verlander and Fister, and are probably hungry for success after a ALCS loss. Schzerer seems like a good #3/4 type who doesn't gave up too many runs, pitches a respectable number of innings and won't be too expensive in arbitration. Then send those prospects, and one or two other pieces to another team for another #3/4 guy.

Yes get rid of all our stars and get lots of draft picks and prospects. 2015 tickets will be really hard to get, but there will be no meaningful September games befor 2015.

[a700hitter]

Surprised I have not seen anything posted here yet but the Sox Strength and Conditioning Coach apparently has been let go as of today.

Did he pull a hamstring on the way out the door?

[Palodios]

Yes get rid of all our stars and get lots of draft picks and prospects. 2015 tickets will be really hard to get' date=' but there will be no meaningful September games befor 2015.[/quote']

 

You might want to re-read my post. My suggestion is to trade Beckett +prospects for two starting pitchers. In this scenario, the prospects received from the Tigers are being used in another trade to get the second pitcher-- not as a means of hoarding prospects.

[User Name]

I already provided the scenario. It may take some wheeling and dealing, and possibly a three team trade, but I think it is possible.

 

Here is a hypothetical-- send Beckett and 5 million to the Tigers for Schzerer and prospects. The Tigers probably could use a pitcher to bridge the gap between Verlander and Fister, and are probably hungry for success after a ALCS loss. Schzerer seems like a good #3/4 type who doesn't gave up too many runs, pitches a respectable number of innings and won't be too expensive in arbitration. Then send those prospects, and one or two other pieces to another team for another #3/4 guy.

 

So the Tigers are going to trade Scherzer (cost controlled pitcher, huge upside) and prospects for Beckett and 5 million?

 

Get real.

[jung]

Another one on the wire today...the 5 day exclusive period that the Sox had to make an offer to Ortiz has expired. As you might have guessed given his recent penchant Dave commented expressing some sort of disappointment. That said I don't think it is meaningful in any sense other than that the Sox do not believe that Ortiz will receive offers along the lines of what he would find desirable. It would appear that the Sox are willing to see what Dave is offered and make a decision about what they will do at that point.

[Palodios]

So the Tigers are going to trade Scherzer (cost controlled pitcher, huge upside) and prospects for Beckett and 5 million?

 

Get real.

 

Do you really believe that Beckett isn't worth prospects and a guy who pitched to a 4.40 ERA last year? Perhaps we should agree to disagree.

[a700hitter]

You might want to re-read my post. My suggestion is to trade Beckett +prospects for two starting pitchers. In this scenario' date=' the prospects received from the Tigers are being used in another trade to get the second pitcher-- not as a means of hoarding prospects.[/quote']Why not keep Beckett and trade our own prospects for a 3/4 guy? Why take a step down at the top of the rotation exchanging Beckett for Scherzer to add a 3/4? Just get the 3/4 guy with our own prospects.

[User Name]

Do you really believe that Beckett isn't worth prospects and a guy who pitched to a 4.40 ERA last year? Perhaps we should agree to disagree.

 

Agree to disagree then.

 

Oh, and that. ^

[Palodios]

Why not keep Beckett and trade our own prospects for a 3/4 guy? Why take a step down at the top of the rotation exchanging Beckett for Scherzer to add a 3/4? Just get the 3/4 guy with our own prospects.

 

Beckett is going to get hurt or, be ineffective this year. He's not a guy we should be trusting at the top of the rotation, or in the clubhouse. Sell high.

[a700hitter]

Beckett is going to get hurt or' date=' be ineffective this year. He's not a guy we should be trusting at the top of the rotation, or in the clubhouse. Sell high.[/quote']On second though, it may not be a bad move, but after studying Scherzer's numbers, I don't see Detroit making the swap for the older pitcher.

[Palodios]

On second though' date=' it may not be a bad move, but after studying Scherzer's numbers, I don't see Detroit making the swap for the older pitcher.[/quote']

 

Scherzer is just an example. I think there is bound to be a hungry team out there desperate enough to give up big value for Beckett. And as far as Beckett being an old, expensive pitcher.... put this into perspective: He is only five months older than CJ Wilson, who will have probably get a 5/90 contract, whereas Beckett has a 3/50 contract.

[alphilip77]

Apparently Jair Jurrjens is available:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/braves-open-to-trading-jurrjens-prado.html

 

Compared to Felix Hernandez, the asking price for Jair would be a lot more palatable.

[Palodios]

Apparently Jair Jurrjens is available:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/braves-open-to-trading-jurrjens-prado.html

 

Compared to Felix Hernandez, the asking price for Jair would be a lot more palatable.

 

I don't see any deal happening here unless it was Ellsbury for Jurrjens and Prado, and that seems like a tough sell from both sides, even though they're both getting what they want.

[SoxSport]

Beckett's odd year is coming up. Or is it the even year? Anyway, it's the bad year.

 

I've changed my mind about Crawford. Pitching is the priority this year. The hitting will take care of itself, no matter what they do--or what Crawford does. That's why I think Maddux should be the next manager.The Ranger's pitching coach. I can't imagine Nolan Ryan hiring a bad pitching coach. MLB TV had a segment on him tonite--I'm impressed. Maybe he'll bring Wilson with him.

[commenter]

I don't see any deal happening here unless it was Ellsbury for Jurrjens and Prado' date=' and that seems like a tough sell from both sides, even though they're both getting what they want.[/quote']

 

Jurrjens is injury prone & a fly ball pitcher. the Red Sox should go no where near him.

 

On top of that, they could get a lot more for a healthy Ellsbury than Jair Jurrjens & Martin Prado. They could get younger players that they need more than an injury prone fly ball starter and an aging injured utility player.

[seabeachfred]

Man, oh man, stay away from this board for only most of one day and your head spins trying to keep up with what's being dispensed around here. Here are a few of my thoughts to amplify what's already been said. There is a small possibility that Ellsbury could stay with us. Remember, it was Epstein who made that dumb decision to move him to left field to "SAVE HIS LEGS". Needless to say it was one of the dumbest things I ever heard a GM say and it was a disastrous decision as subsequent events proved. From what some people from Boston have told me, Ells hated Epstein with a passion and had lost a lot of respect for Francona. Now these are friends of mine but they can be guilty of some BS like many of us are but there has been other things mentioned visa vi about Ells's feelings about the former GM.

 

As for retooling the team, Epstein put an awful lot of drafting with left hand hitting outfielders and now we have a boatload of them. We need a RH hitter very badly now because we are overloaded with lefties. We have to pray to the heavens that finally Beckett, Lester and Buchholz can all give us a solid and complete season, that Aceves and Bard pitch solid relief and that we resign Papelbon. How much money can we now spend? That no one knows, so let's say the large allocation of funds will be shut off this winter. Then what? We need to sign or trade for a solid starting pitcher, that is a must from where I sit and we need to sign two good relievers and this time be lucky with those people after some pretty lousy selections the past two seasons. A starting pitcher, a solid RH hitting outfielder, two relievers, and an extra catcher not named Varitek. And, yes, resign Papelbon. It is possible we can do these things without breaking the bank but they will have to be done.

 

Now can these things be done and will that mean that we can succeed next year where we failed this season? How the hell do I know, but I am willing to feign optimism and some tough talk since we have months before the real cannonading begins. Is what I'm suggesting even possible?

[jung]

Even if Ells wanted to be here he WILL get all the way to free agency and that about kills him staying here as much as anything else because the Sox won't be able to move Crawford's contract and won't invest $40M per year just to have two outfield positions covered. It ain't happening.

 

I suppose there is the possibility that Ells falls apart in the next two years if he stays here diminishing his FA value but the Sox have made their own bed in that regard as well since Ells can benchmark to Crawford.

 

One last legacy of Theo's time here is that the Crawford deal put the last nail in the Ells coffin in all but the most bizarre of possible circumstances. In this case I guess it will be the ghost of Theo that finishes the process. The only real question is do we try to get something for him this year or do we just ride Ells contract out hoping to win it all in the process. We could do that I guess. However as one of our other esteemed posters has pointed out, the Sox have a history of losing because they do not have enough pitching not because they don't have enough offense and almost by some cosmic destiny, the Sox team defies different owners, different FO personnel and finds themselves exactly where they were for the bulk of the modern baseball era. The only difference is that they have gone one step farther this time around and have a predominantly left handed lineup in a park built for right handed hitters.

[a700hitter]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/11/baird_withdraws.html

 

Baird withdraws from Orioles search

Globe Staff November 4, 2011 08:48 PM

By Nick Cafardo and Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

Red Sox vice president of player personnel and pro scouting Allard Baird has withdrawn his name from consideration as general manager of the Orioles.

 

Baltimore had reportedly requested permission to speak to Baird, who has been with the Red Sox since 2006.

 

"I was honored the Baltimore Orioles expressed interest in me as a candidate for their GM position," Baird said. "The opportunity to possibly work side by side with Buck Showalter was very attractive. At the end of the day it came down to my loyalty to the Red Sox [and] Ben Cherington."

 

This is a coup for Cherington. Baird has been behind the acquisition of many players during his tenure with the Sox including Alfredo Aceves last February.

 

The Orioles did interview former Red Sox GM Dan Duquette today. He has not worked in Major League Baseball since being fired by the Red Sox in 2002

This is what happens when an organization wants to keep you. They convince you to stay. Baird's career path is blocked every bit as much as Theo's was blocked. Sox owners were willing to let Theo walk.

[Elktonnick]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/11/baird_withdraws.html

 

This is what happens when an organization wants to keep you. They convince you to stay. Baird's career path is blocked every bit as much as Theo's was blocked. Sox owners were willing to let Theo walk.

 

While that is true he was interviewing for the Orioles. Now that McCoart is gone from the Dodgers, the O's are the team with the worst owner in Baseball.

[jung]

I am hazy on the protocol here. If a team grants permission for the guy to discuss an opportunity to move up with another team which this would have been for Baird, once that bridge is crossed if the guy wants to take the better position and advance his career doesn't it just come down to compensation? In other words I am thinking that once a team allows the exec to be interviewed as long as it is not a sideways move, if the guy wants to take the job he can take it and it then it becomes a matter for the two clubs to discuss and agree to compensation. Do I have that correct?

 

The point being that allowing the interview is I think the last practical block to this sort of deal.

[Palodios]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/11/baird_withdraws.html

 

This is what happens when an organization wants to keep you. They convince you to stay. Baird's career path is blocked every bit as much as Theo's was blocked. Sox owners were willing to let Theo walk.

 

It probably means he just doesn't want to come in 5th place for the next ten years.

[a700hitter]

It probably means he just doesn't want to come in 5th place for the next ten years.

If he has so little confidence in his abilities to change the fortunes of the Orioles, why would the Sox keep him?

[Palodios]

If he has so little confidence in his abilities to change the fortunes of the Orioles' date=' why would the Sox keep him?[/quote']

 

If one organization is considering him for a job after an ugly season, he's probably holding out for a better position rather than get stuck in Baltimore.

[jung]

If he has so little confidence in his abilities to change the fortunes of the Orioles, why would the Sox keep him?

 

Geez I don't think I would be that hard on the guy. Sometimes when you are actually in a particular business it is the difference between you and I knowing that the Orioles now have the wackiest ownership in baseball and a guy like Baird knowing what makes them so wacky. Often owner eccentricities go way past installing showers out in the bleachers (which I actually did not think was such a bad idea at the time since in the Oakland of that era you could probably avoid a vagrancy charge for the cost of a bleacher seat and get a shower to boot). An owner can make it damn near impossible for a GM to make any progress if he so chooses.

[example1]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/11/baird_withdraws.html

 

This is what happens when an organization wants to keep you. They convince you to stay. Baird's career path is blocked every bit as much as Theo's was blocked. Sox owners were willing to let Theo walk.

 

Still barking up that tree, huh?

 

Baird was the GM of the Royals for 6 years. They didn't do very well under him. I'm not saying he's not valuable (he is) but he may be very happy with his current position and have no interest going to a mediocre (poor) club when better positions could open elsewhere.

 

The Theo ship has sailed. His protege is now in charge and the Sox will continue using most of the things that Theo put in place to guide the team. As much as you would like for the Sox to have said "don't let the door hit you on the way out", that's not how it went down.

 

The Cubs and the city of Chicago are treating Theo like royalty. He was highly coveted there and they made him President. The Sox weren't ready to turn over Lucchino's job to Theo yet; that doesn't mean they didn't think he was a very talented GM.

[a700hitter]

Still barking up that tree, huh?

 

Baird was the GM of the Royals for 6 years. They didn't do very well under him. I'm not saying he's not valuable (he is) but he may be very happy with his current position and have no interest going to a mediocre (poor) club when better positions could open elsewhere.

 

The Theo ship has sailed. His protege is now in charge and the Sox will continue using most of the things that Theo put in place to guide the team. As much as you would like for the Sox to have said "don't let the door hit you on the way out", that's not how it went down.

 

The Cubs and the city of Chicago are treating Theo like royalty. He was highly coveted there and they made him President. The Sox weren't ready to turn over Lucchino's job to Theo yet; that doesn't mean they didn't think he was a very talented GM.

Are you getting a Cubs hat? I thought Cherrington was Duquette's protege. Theo took his protege with him to the Cubs-- Hoyer.

 

And I think you are right that Theo didn't get fired as a result of the collapse. It's pretty clear that he wasn't coming back after his contract had expired and that he had those conversations with the owners before the collapse. The Red Sox job was wearing on him too much, and the harder he tried the more he screwed things up in the last 3- 4 years. He went for the lower pressure job in Chicago. Not everyone can thrive consistently in a pressure cooker. He's no Cashman.

[jung]

I really think that where Theo falls in the eyes of the Sox is somewhere in the middle of the two extremes we usually end up discussing. I really don't care how Chicago is treating Theo. What do you expect Chicago to do? By the same token I don't think the Sox were near as unhappy with Theo as spring loading the door that he walked through.

 

I don't think there was a career path for Theo here because LL is JH's junk yard dog and Theo is not up for that task. So I don't think he was ever going to be President here. I don't think JH was happy with the way things were going either.

 

The sacred cow in Boston for this franchise is NOT championships. It is revenue and income as it should be for any business as long as that business does not let the product suffer badly. If you look at the fiscal projections for the 2011 Sox, revenue was hardly projected to grow by more than 2% as I remember it which is really not really growth. The revenue line was not really at issue though. The biggest difference between the 2011 projections and past year fiscal performance was the EBITDA line. EBITDA was projected negative for 2011. Now I doubt once the fiscal year closes and we hopefully get to see the final 2011 numbers, that they did that poorly. When those projections were cobbled together most of the cost numbers like player salaries and all salaries for that matter where known while some of the devices available to the Sox to generate revenue were only estimates. i strongly suspect that while the revenue numbers were marginally better than projections that those additional revenue sources yielded much higher margin and better income for the team. However what those projections did say is that the Sox had crossed a critical line going into the 2011 season. They were now spending so much on player salaries that the bottom line was clearly in jeopardy especially if they did not make the playoffs which they did not.

 

JH is a numbers guy. I think the declining fiscal performance of the team is what ultimately made it hard for JH to continue to see the team going where it was going. They were clearly spending too much money in player salaries, getting hammered by their fan base for poor performance on the field AND now were not doing particularly well from a fiscal perspective as well. I think for at least some period the result will be a much more risk averse Sox perspective from which they sign FAs' particularly. Hopefully the product itself will get more attention than it has gotten of late as well.

[a700hitter]

The sacred cow in Boston for this franchise is NOT championships. It is revenue and income as it should be for any business as long as that business does not let the product suffer badly.

A collapse like 2011 can cause lasting damage to the revenue of a franchise unless problems are addressed and new directions are pursued. Some people here want to think that the owners hated to let Theo leave, but the fact is that there have been a ton of changes already. The GM, manager, pitching coach, first base coach, strength and conditioning staff are all gone. The plan was obviously to clean house. Only LL and the Fenway vendors have not been on the chopping block.

[jung]

Some people here want to think that the owners hated to let Theo leave, but the fact is that there have been a ton of changes already. The GM, manager, pitching coach, first base coach, strength and conditioning staff are all gone. The plan was obviously to clean house. Only LL and the Fenway vendors have not been on the chopping block.

 

I think that whatever validity there is in the idea that the Sox did not want to see Theo go is based on the recognition that the issues that came to a head in 2011 where organization wide. They were bigger than Theo with plenty of blame to go around both above and below Theo's pay grade. However as we have often discussed here, JH is not going to fire himself and JH NEEDS LL. If anything, giving Cherington the GM job tells us a good deal about how close to the vest JH and LL will be playing their cards for awhile and through Cherington, JH and LL have made no bones about telling us so.