2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Cairns_Sox]

Here is what I'd do.

 

1) Let Theo go to Cubs. I'd try and get Cashner or Colvin. Second probably being a pipe dream.

 

2) Find a way to get rid of Lackey. Either by eating his contract or trading and eating some money. This is a must for me. If I was JH their is no way he is here next season on the anniversary year.

 

3) Re-up Paps. If he declines which I think he will, id go hard after Bell.

 

4) Let Papi walk. He had great year their is no doubt about it. But after the way the season blew up, I want guys here that want to fight every week and are proud to wear the jersey. Ortiz has been here long enough now that he should be a leader, not complaining about RBI's or telling the media he would like to play for the Yanks.

 

5) Trade Beckett and Youk. Probably will be scathed for this but after the way the season finished and with what we are hearing Beckett clearly does not want to win. I understand he is probably our best starter but I think his trade value is high enough we could get something decent for him. As I said I want players here who respect the jersey. Youk is done for mine. Yes great hitter but he is breaking down consistenly now and I think we could get something for him.

 

6) Go after Josh Willingham to DH. He is fighter, i think he could bring something to the table. Cuddyer is another.

 

7) Depending on the money look at A-Ram at third base. If he wants something out of control then I'd move on. Kelly Johnson could be a stop gap though I doubt that happens.

 

8) Go after Gio Gonzalez. I reckon we could pry him from the A's with the right deal. If this fails I'd seriously consider Bard for the rotation. Aceves to SU.

 

9) Mark Buerhle is someone I'd consider signing. His numbers at Fenway aren't great but I think he could be an innings eater.

 

10) Bullpen is next. Guys like J Sanchez, Rich Harden and if he can stay out of trouble although I doubt it.. Scott Olsen. It's a huge gamble I know. I've had a few to be fair.

 

I know some of this is way out there but hey we are all entitled to an opinion...pipedream or not.

[a700hitter]

Here is what I'd do.

 

1) Let Theo go to Cubs. I'd try and get Cashner or Colvin. Second probably being a pipe dream.

 

2) Find a way to get rid of Lackey. Either by eating his contract or trading and eating some money. This is a must for me. If I was JH their is no way he is here next season on the anniversary year.

 

3) Re-up Paps. If he declines which I think he will, id go hard after Bell.

 

4) Let Papi walk. He had great year their is no doubt about it. But after the way the season blew up, I want guys here that want to fight every week and are proud to wear the jersey. Ortiz has been here long enough now that he should be a leader, not complaining about RBI's or telling the media he would like to play for the Yanks.

 

5) Trade Beckett and Youk. Probably will be scathed for this but after the way the season finished and with what we are hearing Beckett clearly does not want to win. I understand he is probably our best starter but I think his trade value is high enough we could get something decent for him. As I said I want players here who respect the jersey. Youk is done for mine. Yes great hitter but he is breaking down consistenly now and I think we could get something for him.

 

6) Go after Josh Willingham to DH. He is fighter, i think he could bring something to the table. Cuddyer is another.

 

7) Depending on the money look at A-Ram at third base. If he wants something out of control then I'd move on. Kelly Johnson could be a stop gap though I doubt that happens.

 

8) Go after Gio Gonzalez. I reckon we could pry him from the A's with the right deal. If this fails I'd seriously consider Bard for the rotation. Aceves to SU.

 

9) Mark Buerhle is someone I'd consider signing. His numbers at Fenway aren't great but I think he could be an innings eater.

 

10) Bullpen is next. Guys like J Sanchez, Rich Harden and if he can stay out of trouble although I doubt it.. Scott Olsen. It's a huge gamble I know. I've had a few to be fair.

 

I know some of this is way out there but hey we are all entitled to an opinion...pipedream or not.

I'm not on board with this pipe dream, but not beacause it is unrealistic. I'm not on board, because it would leave the 2012 Sox without it's #4 and 5 hitters who have been all stars and top offensive players for years. It would leave us without a #2 starter. Gio Gonzalez and Buehrle don't fill that role. It would also potentially result in losing the teams best ever closer who is 30 years old and replacing him with a 37 year old.

 

Pipe dreams should make the team better. This dream would have us fighting for 3rd place with Toronto, and I'm not so sure that we win the fight.

[Palodios]

I'm not on board with this pipe dream, but not beacause it is unrealistic. I'm not on board, because it would leave the 2012 Sox without it's #4 and 5 hitters who have been all stars and top offensive players for years. It would leave us without a #2 starter. Gio Gonzalez and Buehrle don't fill that role. It would also potentially result in losing the teams best ever closer who is 30 years old and replacing him with a 37 year old.

 

Pipe dreams should make the team better. This dream would have us fighting for 3rd place with Toronto, and I'm not so sure that we win the fight.

 

Beckett has a fairly serious "Even-Year-Curse" where he will underperform every other year. He has a ERA of 3.30ish in odd years and an ERA of 4.50ish on even years.

 

I know you're not a believer in "ERA on monday afternoon games on turf when the sun is halfway up the sky" statistics, but we're seeing more and more evidence that this is likely caused by poor conditioning and work ethic, rather than being something that balances out. He seems like a very good sell-high candidate.

[ORS]

Beckett has a fairly serious "Even-Year-Curse" where he will underperform every other year. He has a ERA of 3.30ish in odd years and an ERA of 4.50ish on even years.

 

I know you're not a believer in "ERA on monday afternoon games on turf when the sun is halfway up the sky" statistics, but we're seeing more and more evidence that this is likely caused by poor conditioning and work ethic, rather than being something that balances out. He seems like a very good sell-high candidate.

However, extend the logic. Why would conditioning fluctuate like that? The simplest answer is, he has a good year and gets complacent, coming into the next year in poorer shape, leading to a worse year, which is addressed through conditioning in the offseason, leading to another good year. Occam's razor.

 

But, despite the fact that he had a good year this year, I don't see an environment that would pardon complacency this offseason. Not after the beer n' chicken stuff came out in the press. Beckett is a stubborn SOB, but he also strikes me as very prideful. I'd be surprised if he didn't work his tail off to put that stuff to bed. I could be wrong. He could go completely the other way on it. However, that wouldn't be too hard for the team to figure out during the offseason. If he takes the high road, he'll be a big asset for them next year, IMO. If he takes the low road, it might be a good idea to determine his value to another team.

[Dojji]

I think people are trying too hard to make sure this is a competitive squad next year.

 

Which is fair, because Theo tried to hard to do the same for at least the last 3 years with disappointing results, and we can count on Cherington to continue the tradition if only because a new GM right after a firing doesn't make a habit of trying to upset the boss. But I honestly think the pieces are NOT in place to get better next year. I think we're about 3 years behind the Mets, and would be well advised to take the foot off the gas for a few seasons, build up from the farm, let some of these contracts go, and ramp up again in 2015 or so.

 

More likely though, we carry this farce forward right off the cliff a la the Mets and Astros.

[Palodios]

I think we're about 3 years behind the Mets, and would be well advised to take the foot off the gas for a few seasons, build up from the farm, let some of these contracts go, and ramp up again in 2015 or so.

 

2015? That seems like a very arbitrary year. Lackey isn't the only player on this team.

[Dojji]

It was a stab in the dark. Thus the "or so."

 

Fans seem to think we'll be able to erase these mistakes with trades and keep going. I doubt it. A few too many of them at once, and I don't mean just the big signings. And who the heck would take Lackey in particular off our hands? I could see someone buying low on Crawford for little cost in talent, for the same reasons people want to keep him here, and Beckett might actually fetch a half decent return, but a lwe're better off getting what we can out of Lackey in particular than accepting the kind of disadvantageous trade it'd take to get him off the payroll.

[ORS]

Cutting bait until 2015 is the mother of all bad ideas. You are talking about essentially passing on the prime production years from Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Gonzalez, Crawford, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury, all while trying to replace all that talent. Insanity.

 

EDIT: This team is positioned to compete now for the next handful of years. Don't pass that up over some disfunction that can be fixed while maintaining competitiveness.

[a700hitter]

I think people are trying too hard to make sure this is a competitive squad next year.

 

Which is fair, because Theo tried to hard to do the same for at least the last 3 years with disappointing results, and we can count on Cherington to continue the tradition if only because a new GM right after a firing doesn't make a habit of trying to upset the boss. But I honestly think the pieces are NOT in place to get better next year. I think we're about 3 years behind the Mets, and would be well advised to take the foot off the gas for a few seasons, build up from the farm, let some of these contracts go, and ramp up again in 2015 or so.

 

More likely though, we carry this farce forward right off the cliff a la the Mets and Astros.

Three years behind the Mets? The Mets plan is one of complete disarray. Their fans would be very happy if they returned to competitive prominence by 2015. I hate to think we are 3 years behind that.

[Cairns_Sox]

I'm not on board with this pipe dream, but not beacause it is unrealistic. I'm not on board, because it would leave the 2012 Sox without it's #4 and 5 hitters who have been all stars and top offensive players for years. It would leave us without a #2 starter. Gio Gonzalez and Buehrle don't fill that role. It would also potentially result in losing the teams best ever closer who is 30 years old and replacing him with a 37 year old.

 

Pipe dreams should make the team better. This dream would have us fighting for 3rd place with Toronto, and I'm not so sure that we win the fight.

 

Both of our "all stars" are old, injury prone and have bad attitudes. Haven't won a playoff game in 3 years. You can't live off your name forever. Things go on. And to be fair Ortiz is on record saying he doesn't know if wants to come back. Great timing.

 

Lester or Bucholz could be number 2 starters. He gave up when HE WAS NEEDED. The Red Sox are BIGGER then Josh Beckett.

 

Papelbon is a free agent. If I'm looking to win I want the best closer avaibile. I don't care how old is he just what kinda he throws. And Heath Bell can get it done.

 

I think we could beat Toronto without Beckett, Ortiz, Youk and Paps.

[Palodios]

It was a stab in the dark. Thus the "or so."

 

Fans seem to think we'll be able to erase these mistakes with trades and keep going. I doubt it. A few too many of them at once, and I don't mean just the big signings. And who the heck would take Lackey in particular off our hands? I could see someone buying low on Crawford for little cost in talent, for the same reasons people want to keep him here, and Beckett might actually fetch a half decent return, but a lwe're better off getting what we can out of Lackey in particular than accepting the kind of disadvantageous trade it'd take to get him off the payroll.

 

What does this team lack? They lose drew, who'll be replaced by Kalish. They'll lose Ortiz, who will be replaced by Lavarnway. Youk could get hurt and will be replaced by Middlebrooks, or he'll return to form and OPS .900 again. Add one #3 starter, one #5/6 starter, and a GM who isn't completely incompetent when it comes to building a bullpen, and this team is back in business.

[a700hitter]

Both of our "all stars" are old, injury prone and have bad attitudes. Haven't won a playoff game in 3 years. You can't live off your name forever. Things go on. And to be fair Ortiz is on record saying he doesn't know if wants to come back. Great timing.

 

Lester or Bucholz could be number 2 starters. He gave up when HE WAS NEEDED. The Red Sox are BIGGER then Josh Beckett.

 

Papelbon is a free agent. If I'm looking to win I want the best closer avaibile. I don't care how old is he just what kinda he throws. And Heath Bell can get it done.

 

I think we could beat Toronto without Beckett, Ortiz, Youk and Paps.

But your plan doesn't improve the team. You need to replace these guys. I'd be okay with this plan if they were going to get another starter like CJ Wilson or King Felix. I think you also need to replace at least one of those big bats if not both. There are time that I believe in addition by subtraction as with Lackey, but you are stripping the team of too much talent without adequate replacements.

[Cairns_Sox]

But your plan doesn't improve the team. You need to replace these guys. I'd be okay with this plan if they were going to get another starter like CJ Wilson or King Felix. I think you also need to replace at least one of those big bats if not both. There are time that I believe in addition by subtraction as with Lackey' date=' but you are stripping the team of too much talent without adequate replacements.[/quote']

 

Can we really judge properly though? I think stats are overrated.

[Dojji]

What does this team lack?

 

Youth? Energy? Drive? Hunger? Commitment to excellence (from the players)? Health for the most part each of the last several seasons? A medical staff that knows how to diagnose injuries correctly the first time?

 

There just isn't always a quick solution in baseball. Baseball is a patient game, you can't count on always being able to find the ideal answer to keep your team in the winning side of things.We're used to there being one because Theo made some key hits on talent at good times throughout 03-08. His luck ran out each of the last couple years, by which I mean it normalized and he started making the mistakes he'd avoided to that point (the Lackey and Crwaford signings went against his grain even if they had worked. You don't replenish your core out of free agency, FA is for supplimental talent).

 

Right now we look very much like a team juuuuuuust about to seriously settle into the doldrums for a few years. Personally I'd be inclined to let it happen, and if the team can pull enough talent together from the guys on the field to contend, make a deadline move in that direction, but other than that fall back out of the addiction to big splash signings and trades that infested the FO in the last 3 years. Let the farm dictate where we go from there. I suspect we'll stay competitive anyway. We have some great talent in the minors.

[alphilip77]

IMO, the number one priority this offseason (after signing Papelbon) should be moving Lackey come hell or high water. He's a cancer to this team and has completely fallen out of favor with The Nation. I read an interesting article on overthemonster listing different bad contracts we could possibly swap with Lackey's.

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/10/17/2495636/bad-contract-swap-meet

 

Personally, I like swapping for Santana or Figgins. We'd most likely have to kick in a B or C prospect for Santana, but it would be worth it in my view.

[Palodios]

IMO, the number one priority this offseason (after signing Papelbon) should be moving Lackey come hell or high water. He's a cancer to this team and has completely fallen out of favor with The Nation. I read an interesting article on overthemonster listing different bad contracts we could possibly swap with Lackey's.

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/10/17/2495636/bad-contract-swap-meet

 

Personally, I like swapping for Santana or Figgins. We'd most likely have to kick in a B or C prospect for Santana, but it would be worth it in my view.

 

I was the first person on this board to suggest a Bay-for-Lackey deal, but it is a longshot. I'd also love to see a Figgins deal, but the Red Sox would have to dump a ton of money/prospects. Santana is not happening. He's a bonafide ace, with no major injury history. If he recovers from TJS well, I could see him being a major force for the Mets moving forward.

[jung]

What does this team lack? They lose drew, who'll be replaced by Kalish. They'll lose Ortiz, who will be replaced by Lavarnway. Youk could get hurt and will be replaced by Middlebrooks, or he'll return to form and OPS .900 again. Add one #3 starter, one #5/6 starter, and a GM who isn't completely incompetent when it comes to building a bullpen, and this team is back in business.

 

I see your point here with one, maybe two exceptions. We still do not have a number one starter. We have three number 2 starters at best or maybe 2 number 2's, one 2a and then Lackey.

 

The other element to this that I think has to be accepted as fact is that there is no chance that we will keep both Ells and Crawford and I am not even sure Ells would even want to stay here past his current contract. Given the lack of a number 1 SP and the fact the Ells trade value has got to be at an all time high (the receiving team still getting the benefit of his current contract numbers to 2014) I have to think they at least have to shop around and see how much they could bring to this team by trading Ells this year.

 

It would be hard to believe that we could end the year all agreeing that at the very least the catalyst that started the fall was the demise of the starting pitching and then do nothing more than dump Lackey (presuming that can be done any way at all) and Wake and look for a 3 or a 5. I don't think trading Beckett gets much done for us though. The most disconcerting issue for me is not Lackey either in the clubhouse poison that he is nor his lack of performance on the mound. The most disconcerting thing to me is that we fully expected Lester to pass Beckett in 2011 and that did not happen. So, do we go into 2012 hoping that a number 1 starter emerges from those three guys and what do we do about needing to eat the innings that Wake and hopefully Lackey will leave behind? Bard or Aceves fills Wakes role and becomes your number 5. The more I say it the more I believe it, I cannot see Lackey coming out in a Boston uniform in 2012 both because of the clubhouse poison and poor performer he has become and because the Sox are not going to let the 100 year Anniversary get sabotaged in that way. I will accept all the other nonsense if there is a chance that Lackey can return to some sort of form but the Sox will have to see evidence of that much sooner than Lackey is going to provide it. Did Lackey look like the kind of guy that would make an effort to start resurrecting himself post haste?

 

I think Beckett will do well to duplicate his 2011 performance in 2012. Does that look like a number 1 performance? Beckett needs to develop another reliable out pitch and even with that as he ages his skills are going to diminish. I expect Lester to come around but sufficiently to be a true stopper which is what you need from your number 1, very questionable and it is not Buckholtz as much as I like him. Further to the point if you are still going to try to get to the post season even in 2013 instead of 2012 without a SP that can take the pressure off the other three, good luck. Our starting pitching would have been ripped to shreds certainly in this ALCS if not in the Divisional Series. I would love to think that Lester is the guy but we can't have our cake and eat it too. We can't separate him from the "lost it from the neck up" group of starting pitchers and then claim that his 2011 was the result of that whole mess. Reports we are getting now are that Lester worked hard in 2011 which means he did not step up. This was the year everybody expected Lester to pull into the number 1 role and that is in fact the only thing that changed. This was the year it was expected of him. Maybe Lester will always need the protection of not being the number 1 guy to pitch well. That is entirely possible, and entirely logical and makes more sense than anything else suggested about Lester. As for the money we have tied up in Beckett, Lester and Buckholtz that is going to look pretty reasonable the way money is being tossed around for starting pitching these days. Obviously the Lackey contract is the ugly duckling.

 

So there are two points about our starting pitching that just can't go ignored. Since when have we or anybody else won a WS without a legitimate horse leading the pitching staff? How can we legitimately think that the problems that we have in starting pitching are down there in the number 3 or 5/6 slot and proceed on that basis?

 

Then recognizing that we cannot expect to keep both Ells and Crawford and Ells trade value may be one thing we need to use.

[example1]

Cutting bait until 2015 is the mother of all bad ideas. You are talking about essentially passing on the prime production years from Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Gonzalez, Crawford, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury, all while trying to replace all that talent. Insanity.

 

EDIT: This team is positioned to compete now for the next handful of years. Don't pass that up over some disfunction that can be fixed while maintaining competitiveness.

 

Absolutely right. 2015? Seriously? With the best offense in baseball and Lester, Buchholz and Beckett all in their primes?

 

The "bridge year" was 2010, and that brought this team Crawford and Gonzalez to go with an already solid club. There are minor tweaks to be made, but with some better conditioning and a bit of fortune/luck/chemistry (whatever you want to call it) down the stretch I don't see how this team is worse than the Cardinals or Tigers or other teams that were still playing in the LCS.

[Elktonnick]

I was the first person on this board to suggest a Bay-for-Lackey deal' date=' but it is a longshot. I'd also love to see a Figgins deal, but the Red Sox would have to dump a ton of money/prospects. Santana is not happening. He's a bonafide ace, with no major injury history. If he recovers from TJS well, I could see him being a major force for the Mets moving forward.[/quote']

 

Generally speaking one doesn't trade front-line starters for position players, although Lackey can hardly be called a front line pitcher. While I want Lackey gone tomorrow (and if it were my money, which it isn't, be willing to eat the contract) I am beginning to see a scenario develop where Lackey may need "Tommy John" surgery or maybe what ever that Dominican Dr did for Colon. If the former were to be the case, then he would out a year. That would be the win win solution. Out of sight out of mind and he wouldn't be around to ruin the 100 year celebration openning day at Fenway Park. Perhap wishful thinking on my part but we will know soon enough because I understand Lackey is due to have a medical.

[FredLynn]

Generally speaking one doesn't trade front-line starters for position players' date=' although Lackey can hardly be called a front line pitcher. While I want Lackey gone tomorrow (and if it were my money, which it isn't, be willing to eat the contract) I am beginning to see a scenario develop where Lackey may need "Tommy John" surgery or maybe what ever that Dominican Dr did for Colon. If the former were to be the case, then he would out a year. That would be the win win solution. Out of sight out of mind and he wouldn't be around to ruin the 100 year celebration openning day at Fenway Park. Perhap wishful thinking on my part but we will know soon enough because I understand Lackey is due to have a medical.[/quote']

 

I don't care how we get rid of Lackey or who we get for him. I agree with Schilling that he should never wear a Red Sox uniform again. If we get someone of value, great. If we get a prospect, great. If we have to release him outright, thats fine by me too. Remember: he was the WORST SP IN BASEBALL last year.

[example1]

I don't care how we get rid of Lackey or who we get for him. I agree with Schilling that he should never wear a Red Sox uniform again. If we get someone of value' date=' great. If we get a prospect, great. If we have to release him outright, thats fine by me too. Remember: he was the WORST SP IN BASEBALL last year.[/quote']

 

Much easier to say when you're not the one spending $45m to have him pitch for another team.

[Dojji]

Considering he was the worst SP in the big leagues last year I'd pay for the privilege of facing him, sure.

[example1]

I don't care how we get rid of Lackey or who we get for him. I agree with Schilling that he should never wear a Red Sox uniform again. If we get someone of value' date=' great. If we get a prospect, great. If we have to release him outright, thats fine by me too. Remember: he was the WORST SP IN BASEBALL last year.[/quote']

 

Also, I don't know how much weight you put in this, but Lackey's 1.5 WAR last year actually made him far from the worst pitcher in baseball. He had a 4.71 FIP, which ranks him above guys like Tommy Hunter, Joe Saundes, AJ Burnett, and Edinson Volquez.

 

According to fangraphs, Bronson Arroyo was the worst SP in baseball last year with at least as many innings as Lackey (160), with -1.3 WAR.

 

Some other worse or equally-bad pitchers (again, according to WAR):

Aaron Harang

Mike Pelfrey

Brad Penny

Wade Davis

Joe Saunders

Jake Westbrook

Ted Lilly

Jeremy Hellickson

Randy Wolf

Fausto Carmona

AJ Burnett

Brett Myers

Mike Leake

Wandy Rodriguez

 

Not entirely sure what to make of that, other than that a metric I tend to trust says that Lackey wasn't the worst pitcher in the league this year. Do I believe it? Yeah, I do. He showed signs of being "just s*****" and did seem to be a bit unlucky.

 

Is Lackey also the league's biggest douchebag? Possibly, though a guy like Bretty Myers or AJ Burnett could probably give him a run for his money. Unlikeable all.

 

I can't believe I just defended John Lackey... I feel filthy. I need to go throw up now.

[Palodios]

I see your point here with one, maybe two exceptions. We still do not have a number one starter. We have three number 2 starters at best or maybe 2 number 2's, one 2a and then Lackey.

 

I stopped reading this right here. I've made arguments in a few other threads, but the more I think about it... I should not need to. Look at his stats, look at his postseason stats, look at his stats this April when the Red Sox absolutely needed good starting pitching. If you do not believe Lester is an ace you do not deserve to be a Red Sox fan, and it is as simple as that.

[Palodios]

Also' date=' I don't know how much weight you put in this, but Lackey's 1.5 WAR last year actually made him far from the worst pitcher in baseball. [/quote']

 

Over the last two seasons, he has been worth 22 million for 32 million worth of a contract. Kind of makes you wonder how usefull advanced statistics really are, doesn't it?

[example1]

Over the last two seasons' date=' he has been worth 22 million for 32 million worth of a contract. Kind of makes you wonder how usefull advanced statistics really are, doesn't it? [/quote']

 

Be honest... you expected that number to be much, much worse, right? 2/3 of his value, for guy who has been THAT bad? I mean, not a good investment by any stretch, but that's far from as bad as I assumed it would be.

[3rdManOut]

I could see Bard playing a serious role in the 2012 season as a number 4 or 5 SP.

[jung]

Lester may have been an ace in 2011, by any standard if he was Beckett was. Did either one of them fit the role of stopper? No! and your number 1 must be a stopper. We did not have a number 1 pitcher in 2011 and if we don't do something about it we won't have one in 2012 or maybe 2013 either.

[example1]

Considering he was the worst SP in the big leagues last year I'd pay for the privilege of facing him' date=' sure.[/quote']

 

What am i missing that makes Lackey the worst pitcher in baseball? What stat or set of stats back that claim?

 

I just feel like I need to be on hyperbole alert around here lately. If he really was the worst in baseball, then let's use that label; but the worst in all of baseball is a really strong claim... I'd like to know its origins.

[a700hitter]

What am i missing that makes Lackey the worst pitcher in baseball? What stat or set of stats back that claim?

 

I just feel like I need to be on hyperbole alert around here lately. If he really was the worst in baseball, then let's use that label; but the worst in all of baseball is a really strong claim... I'd like to know its origins.

You must have been in a cave since mid-season. It was frequently talked about on NESN, in the Boston papers and even on the National Network games. Lackey has the worst ERA of any Sox starting pitcher in history with more that 130 innings or so. He is the worst starter that I have seen in 45 years by a long shot.