MLB Hot Stove 2010

[BSN07]

The Rangers declined their side of Vladimir Guerrero's $9MM option for 2011, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Instead, Texas will pay a $1MM buyout.

 

Is this surprising to anyone else? I thought with his good season that would be picked up.

 

.300/.345/.496 with 29 homers is nothing to sneeze at.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Not at all. He faded big time after the break and had a terrible post season.

[Emmz]

Eh, I could go either way on this one. The guy was a significantly above average hitter for 12 of his last 13 seasons, and for 4 out of 6 months of the 2010 season, but he did have a couple pitiful months, and an even more pitiful postseason.

[Dipre]

Host of options declined/exercised today:

 

Declined:

 

Miguel Olivo, C (Rockies)

 

Jeff Francis, RHP (Rockies)

 

Octavio Dotel RHP (Rockies)

 

Willy Aybar, Util (Rays)

 

Dan Wheeler, RHP (Rays)

 

Chris Young ,RHP (Padres)

 

Eric Chavez ,3B (A's)

 

Adrian Beltre ,3B (Red Sox, player option)

 

Erik Bedard, LHP (Mariners)

 

Jose Lopez 2B/3B (Mariners)

 

Russel Branyan 1B/DH (Mariners)

 

Adam Kennedy 2B/3B (Natinals)

 

 

Exercised:

 

Mark Ellis 2B, (A's)

 

Bronson Arroyo RHP, (Reds)

 

Jose Reyes SS, (Mets)

 

Aramis Ramirez 3B (Cubs)

[Spudboy]

Just serves further notice to David Ortiz.

 

Wake up.

 

You are not worth what you think you are worth.

[example1]

Is this surprising to anyone else? I thought with his good season that would be picked up.

 

.300/.345/.496 with 29 homers is nothing to sneeze at.

 

They will probably put a lot of their resources toward Cliff Lee. If he signs elsewhere then they could offer Vlad a reasonable extension.

[Emmz]

Just serves further notice to David Ortiz.

 

Wake up.

 

You are not worth what you think you are worth.

 

Ortiz had a .900 OPS last season, with 32 homers, so I think he's worth a bit more than Guerrero.

[BSN07]

They will probably put a lot of their resources toward Cliff Lee. If he signs elsewhere then they could offer Vlad a reasonable extension.

 

Will signing Lee really handcuff the Rangers so bad they won't be able to offer a one year 9M contract to a player at any point during Lee's deal? Or do they think having an extra 9M will help them against the Yankees?

 

They need to understand right now that the Yankees will top any offer they make. They are going to have to get creative and rely on some other variables if the have a shot at signing Lee.

 

Who knows maybe they plan on putting Cruz at DH and finding another OF :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

They could probably sign vlad for less than 9 mil, or they saw how he finished and think he could be done

[BSN07]

They could probably sign vlad for less than 9 mil' date=' or they saw how he finished and think he could be done[/quote']

 

This is true. I went backed and looked at his numbers and he did kind of fall of the face of the earth at the end.

 

I wonder how this effects Ortiz? They had similar lines on the season. One struggled for the 1st 6-8 weeks, the other struggled for the last 6-8 weeks. One can play the OF in a pinch. One can't do anything other then hit. The Rangers basically just said a DH only player in his mid 30's isn't worth 9M for one season, after a decent year. And Ortiz is still thinking someone will offer him multi years I said all along he should be begging for that option to get picked up. He better see this as, hey if they don't pick it up, I'm probably looking at 9M at the most next season.

[Palodios]

Ortiz had a .900 OPS last season' date=' with 32 homers, so I think he's worth a bit more than Guerrero.[/quote']

 

He is not. They're both strong hitters who hit highs and lows through a season. A differerence of 3 home runs and .40 OPS will not be a difference between Vlad's 1/9 and Ortiz's desired 3/30.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, Ortiz also hasnt been able to put a full season together since 2006. He's either been hurt, slumping or inconsistent. Ortiz was incredible the last 4 months of the yr, but aging players who start to have increased droughts might have some trouble repeating their mechanics in the box and maintaining bat speed. I worry about Jeter in the same breath, except his slump was the last few months. Would anyone be surprised if Ortiz hits to anywhere from a .750OPS to a .900OPS next yr? I wouldnt be surprised anywhere throughout that range

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' Ortiz also hasnt been able to put a full season together since 2006. He's either been hurt, slumping or inconsistent. Ortiz was incredible the last 4 months of the yr, but aging players who start to have increased droughts might have some trouble repeating their mechanics in the box and maintaining bat speed. I worry about Jeter in the same breath, except his slump was the last few months. Would anyone be surprised if Ortiz hits to anywhere from a .750OPS to a .900OPS next yr? I wouldnt be surprised anywhere throughout that range[/quote']With RF being shortened to 370 feet from 380, I'd be surprised if Ortiz doesn't hit 35 HRs in 2011.

[Dipre]

He is not. They're both strong hitters who hit highs and lows through a season. A differerence of 3 home runs and .40 OPS will not be a difference between Vlad's 1/9 and Ortiz's desired 3/30.

 

Except that's not what was implied.

 

The point is that Ortiz should receive better compensation than Vlad on the basis of a stronger season, now that is obviously not 3/30, but it shouldn't be 1/11 either. IMO, 1/12.5 (his option) seems perfect from a time/money standpoint, because even though aging no-field DH's are not making a lot of money these days it's better to keep his bat (which would still be difficult to replace) until next year's crop of FA bats.

 

Just my two cents.

[jacksonianmarch]

With RF being shortened to 370 feet from 380' date=' I'd be surprised if Ortiz doesn't hit 35 HRs in 2011.[/quote']

 

It wouldnt surprise me at all. The warning signs are there for Papi, but everytime he looks like he is completely washed up, he goes out and clubs 10 homers in a month and looks vintage. He is a wild card IMO. He could go out there and suck or he could go out there and dominate

[Station 13]

It wouldnt surprise me at all. The warning signs are there for Papi' date=' but everytime he looks like he is completely washed up, he goes out and clubs 10 homers in a month and looks vintage. He is a wild card IMO. He could go out there and suck or he could go out there and dominate[/quote']

 

He still got good pop, but useless facing LHP. If he could still hit LHP he would had 40 HR this past season.

[Palodios]

Except that's not what was implied.

 

The point is that Ortiz should receive better compensation than Vlad on the basis of a stronger season, now that is obviously not 3/30, but it shouldn't be 1/11 either. IMO, 1/12.5 (his option) seems perfect from a time/money standpoint, because even though aging no-field DH's are not making a lot of money these days it's better to keep his bat (which would still be difficult to replace) until next year's crop of FA bats.

 

Just my two cents.

 

I just don't think there is any real difference in value from Vlad to Ortiz. 40 OPS may seem like a lot, but when you consider that Vlad hits for .30 points better for average these days, and is slightly better defensively for NL games(not a huge factor, but I'd rather have a DH replace an outfielder than a 1B that probably hits just as well). But they excercised an above value option, so I can't argue anymore.

[Dipre]

I just don't think there is any real difference in value from Vlad to Ortiz. 40 OPS may seem like a lot' date=' but when you consider that Vlad hits for .30 points better for average these days, and is slightly better defensively for NL games(not a huge factor, but I'd rather have a DH replace an outfielder than a 1B that probably hits just as well). But they excercised an above value option, so I can't argue anymore.[/quote']

 

Then you can make the consistency argument.

 

Although Ortiz has now made it customary to have a brutal April, he has been deadly from mid-May on the last two years, while Vlad faded and faded badly the last couple of months of the season plus the playoffs. Also, Vlad is probably just as awful in RF nowadays as Ortiz is at 1B.

[CanadianSox]

I like Jeff Francis and hope he catches on somewhere.

[BSN07]

I like Jeff Francis and hope he catches on somewhere.

 

From what I read he has a good chance to return to the Rockies, just at a lower price then his option.

[Palodios]

Then you can make the consistency argument.

 

Although Ortiz has now made it customary to have a brutal April, he has been deadly from mid-May on the last two years, while Vlad faded and faded badly the last couple of months of the season plus the playoffs. Also, Vlad is probably just as awful in RF nowadays as Ortiz is at 1B.

 

Vlad has not had worse consistency problems than Ortiz-- They've had fairly similar declines. And to clarify-- even though they're both pretty terrible defensively, there are just so many big 1B bats, and its a helluva lot easier to shuffle out an outfielder than it is to shuffle around a 1B because most of the time the 1B is going to be your #3 or 4 hitter. Consider how many games Hermida played in LF.

 

Ortiz is not worth 30% more than Vlad.

[Dipre]

Vlad has not had worse consistency problems than Ortiz-- They've had fairly similar declines. And to clarify-- even though they're both pretty terrible defensively, there are just so many big 1B bats, and its a helluva lot easier to shuffle out an outfielder than it is to shuffle around a 1B because most of the time the 1B is going to be your #3 or 4 hitter. Consider how many games Hermida played in LF.

 

Ortiz is not worth 30% more than Vlad.

 

Vladimir Guerrero splits 09-10:

 

1st half OPS: .734-.919

 

2nd half OPS: .844-.748

 

Unfortunately, his stats over the last two years claim otherwise, he's been a victim of inconsistency, and he had a bad end to this contract year. The 30% amount you pulled out arbitrarily. My actual point: Vlad is not worth 11 M, Ortiz is not worth 12.5 mill, however, it was necessary to overpay Ortiz to keep him on a one-year deal, but he's still more valuable than Vlad. They are equally awful defensively, regardless of the position they play, which is inconsequential when directly comparing their values anyway since they're both DH's.

[Palodios]

How is 30% aribtrary? Vlad got rejected on a 9 million, and Ortiz was picked up on 12.5 million. Its closer to 35 sure, but Vlad isn't worth that much less.

[BSN07]

There both over paid. It was a necessary evil with Ortiz because by over paying him he will be happy with a one year deal. Which in the end is what the Red Sox want. If the Sox were trying to cut payroll to make a run at Lee, like Texas is doing, they would have probably been more likely to decline and try and get him at more of a market value.

[Dipre]

How is 30% aribtrary? Vlad got rejected on a 9 million' date=' and Ortiz was picked up on 12.5 million. Its closer to 35 sure, but Vlad isn't worth that much less.[/quote']

 

Because it conflicts with my initial point. I stated that Ortiz is getting overpaid to be kept on a year-deal, which is true, his dollar value according to fangraphs was 13.2 million last season, but if you take into account market tendencies and possibility of regression, you could easily make a case for him earning no more than 10 million next season, but the center point of the argument is whether or not he's more valuable, which he is.

 

If you want a specific percentage of how much more valuable Ortiz was than Guerrero last season, let's look at Fangraphs:

 

Ortiz: 13.2 million.

 

Guerrero: 10.3 million.

 

So we're talking (by the best formula we could use) Vlad being 22% less valuable than Ortiz, and given the opposite trends each finish the year with, you could actually make a case for Ortiz being 30% more valuable than Guerrero. Go figure.

[boston22407]

Blue Jays acquired C Miguel Olivo from the Rockies for a player to be named later.

What a surprise. FOXSports.com's Tracy Ringolsby said Wednesday that the Rockies declined Olivo's option for 2011, making him a free agent. That report was apparently incorrect. The veteran catcher will head up to Toronto, where he should split time with youngster J.P Arencibia for at least the first half of the 2011 season. Arencibia is poised to take over by late July.

[a700hitter]

Just bring back Ortiz. There are no pitchers that like facing him. He's a scary dude with a bat in his hands.

 

Edited: For Drunk posting grammatical errors.

[Divinity]

Against RHP sure, but with a .222 average last year against LHP, he's probably not so scary to them.

[BSN07]

I'm glad Ortiz is back for next season. He should have plenty of motivation for a strong season. After that I'm a mixed bag on where I see this going. The fan side of me thinks if he has a good season, he certainly isn't coming back on another one year deal. Which is too bad because he will fall one season short of the "10" year plateau and won't have a chance at getting his number retired. Which in all honesty he really has earned that right.

 

My rational side knows that giving multiple years to Ortiz is risky business at this point.

[BSN07]

The Blue Jays have declined the option on Olivo, according to a team press release. Toronto will be responsible for paying Olivo's $500K buyout and the catcher is now a Type B free agent.

 

:wtf: