John Henry bids for Liverpool FC

[flred]

Redguard,

 

You are SO LUCKY.

I always go back to the quotes of Sir Bill Shankly whenever I need inspiration. You don't need to be a soccer fan to understand them, his philosophy can be applied to every day life. He is such an inspirational and charismatic personality.

 

Damn straight. And then add in Paisley's humility. Pure class.

[Maria7]

Damn straight. And then add in Paisley's humility. Pure class.

 

The great man is an iconic legend.

[Redguard]

Redguard,

 

You are SO LUCKY.

I always go back to the quotes of Sir Bill Shankly whenever I need inspiration. You don't need to be a soccer fan to understand them, his philosophy can be applied to every day life. He is such an inspirational and charismatic personality.

 

Absolutely.

 

Have a look at this, St Georges Hall / Library, Liverpool. Estimated 750,000 in the city and on the route for homecoming.

 

 

I was there.

[flred]

The great man is an iconic legend.

 

When I read his bio, I was amazed to read he turned up with a trowel and whatnot to fix the dugout brickwork! Compare that to Ferguson's crap with having his entire squad walking up and down the lines with stopwatches to pressurize the refs/linos. Strangely, they didn't do it when they were winning...

[flred]

Absolutely.

 

Have a look at this, St Georges Hall / Library, Liverpool. Estimated 750,000 in the city and on the route for homecoming.

 

 

I was there.

 

Bows down. *we're not worthy*

[Redguard]

I've a question to the Red Sox lads out there.

 

Doing some preliminary research I've come across the term 'metrics' and it's application to baseball and possibly football. In my field of work I've sometimes worked closely with some athletes and footballers. Could someone please give me a general overview of 'metrics' and application please?

 

Thanks.

[Dojji]

You don't ask much?

 

Baseball is easy to analyze statistically because each play is discrete. Things happen for awhile then play stops and resets before they can happen again, and this happend all the time, not just on the odd corner. That means that each play can be analyzed and assigned value. Metrics are just things that analyze that value. One such is WAR, which attempts to analyze how many wins a player earned for his team. There are others, such as VORP, which analyzes a player's worth compared to a generic replacement, and a lot of derivative data such as BABIP, which analyzes how often, after you hit the ball, it is fielded by a player vs. when you reach base safely, which can be used either to evaluate whether a player might be hitting into bad luck, or analyze whether a guy's making the right kind of contact to result in hits.

 

 

The two numbers I use most are OBP and OPS for hitters.

 

OBP is on base percentage or in other words the number of times the hitter did something other than becoming out. Walks and hits, mostly, but other than bases reached on error everything that sees a hitter not become out goes into OBP, so I consider it a consistency-o-meter. A good OBP is .340 or higher., or a little over 1 time on base for every 3 trips to the plate.

 

OPS combines OBP with slugging percentage (bases advanced per plate appearance, used to evaluate a hitter's ability to take extra bases with speed or deep hits) to give an overall effectiveness number so that even if a guy doesn't get on base, if he does more damage when he does, that's measured. What's good for OPS is dependent on position, since some positions are harder to play defensively so it's tricky to get a good hitter, and others are relatively easy meaning you should find a great hitter to play that position. Catcher and shortstop are the lhardest to find good hitters there, OPS can be .700 or so and a catcher can still be considered OK, but for a first baseman or a left fielder, the standard is much higher because it's a relatively easier position to play and you really want at least an .800 OPS from any "corner" position if you can get it and if you can't, you may need to make the offense up at another position.

 

For pitchers, I mostly use ERA and WHIP.

 

ERA is total runs allowed that are allowed per nine innings, that are not the result of a fielder's error (personally I think E1's should be ignored when calculating ERA, since they are an error on the pitcher, but the statisticians disagree with me). Anything under 4 is considered a good ERA, but the lower, obviously, the better.

 

WHIP is basically the opposite of OBP -- the number of times a pitcher gives up something that is not an out, such as a walk or a hit. The anagram is for Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched. You want to see that number below about 1.33, meaning a player's allowing about 4 baserunners for every 3 innings pitched. Much higher than that and the guy will wear out his arm by the 6th inning and you'll need to go to the bullpen a lot.

 

So that's my quick cliff's notes on numbers, those 4 are probably the most fundamentally important ones to know, there's a lot of other ones but if you keep OBP, OPS, ERA, and WHIP clear in your head you should be able to contribute meaningfully to most forum conversations unless someone's got an advanced degree in nerdology and likes to show off.

[Virgil Stallcup]

I've a question to the Red Sox lads out there.

 

Doing some preliminary research I've come across the term 'metrics' and it's application to baseball and possibly football. In my field of work I've sometimes worked closely with some athletes and footballers. Could someone please give me a general overview of 'metrics' and application please?

 

Thanks.

 

Think ACTIM Index, then multiply that times 100,000. With that, you'll have an idea of the type of number-crunching that goes on in baseball.

 

I'm a Luddite on the subject. If the statistic is on the back of a baseball card, circa 1978, then it is a stat worth knowing. Admittedly, I'm still someone who believes you should start your best and not focus such decisions on how someone does against left-handed pitchers in a particular field at a particular time under certain weather conditions (And yes, it gets that detailed now). But admittedly I'm fighting a losing battle; baseball is the ultimate game for stats geeks.

 

As the game has evolved, the stats have evolved. Decades ago, pitchers were expected to throw the entire game (even if it went into extra innings) and they were often asked to pitch on one or two days' worth of rest. You see some gaudy pitching statistics from the early days of baseball, numbers that can never be matched (Sox legend Cy Young and his career 511 wins--untouchable). The Victorian pitchers benefited from a baseball that limited offensive numbers, a higher mound, and other factors.

 

Today, pitchers typically work in a five-man rotation (every fifth day they pitch). They are often held to pitch counts and generally do not work beyond 6 or 7 innings unless they have "sick" stuff that is killing the opposition batters. They are replaced by relief pitchers who are measured statistically by (among other stats) Saves and Holds, concepts that were unheard of during Cy Young's time.

 

I'm not even scratching the surface of the statistical world that is baseball. If you are into numbers and are willing to dive deep into the weeds of metrics, then this is a sport that can accommodate such interest.

[LFCKEV71]

Billy Beane: Bound for Anfield

 

The Liverpool Red Sox Calamity. It is the last week of the transfer window and Glen Johnson breaks a leg. A replacement is required. Roy Hodgson, using the club scouting network, his own Continent-wide contacts, and the knowledge gleaned from decades in the game, draws up a shortlist of replacements and presents them to the board. A new American director looks over the paper, then tosses it away. "We've got our own list," he says, handing over a neatly-printed spreadsheet. "These are the players the Recruitment Operative recommends. Their stats are a fit for Johnson. Which one do you want?" The list has been drawn up by the young college grad with the computer who sits down the corridor from Hodgson crunching numbers. "So this," thinks the veteran manager, "is what he has been doing, this is what it has come to."

 

 

Inconceivable? Not at all. Liverpool's prospective new owners believe in metrics, the application of statistical analysis in sport made famous by the book Moneyball, Michael Lewis's bestseller about the Oakland Athletics' baseball club and their innovative general manager, Billy Beane.

 

The As are one of the poorest clubs in baseball, but have consistently performed way above their financial level. As Lewis revealed, Beane has achieved this by ignoring traditional recruitment processes, instead using detailed statistical analysis to pick up players on the cheap and to formulate a playing philosophy which debunked accepted notions of how to win baseball matches. In doing so he blew a hole in the old canard that only people who had played the game to Major League status were capable of identifying talent and managing it. Moneyball's publication in 2003 drew much criticism from traditional baseball men, but also prompted several owners to rethink their strategy. Maybe they did not have to keep hiring grizzled old tobacco-chewing trainers who wasted their millions in a fruitless pursuit of success.

 

John William Henry, the man behind Liverpool's putative new owners, the New England Sports Venture (NESV), was already ahead of the curve. When he bought the Boston Red Sox in 2002 he offered Beane a five-year, $12.5 m contract to move to Boston. Beane, reluctant to uproot his family, said no. The Red Sox did the next best thing. They hired Bill James, the iconoclastic analyst whose ideas initially inspired Beane, and 28-year-old Yale graduate Theo Epstein, who would have been Beane's No 2 if he had joined, was given the lead role. "Billy Beane is a sharp mind," said Larry Lucchino, CEO of the Red Sox and NESV. "We tried to hire him, but what we've done since Theo took over is to take some of the quantitative analysis approaches and overlay them with the resource advantages of our market."

 

In English that means use the stats and add the financial muscle the Red Sox has to buy the best rather than just the best-value players. It worked, Boston twice winning the World Series. Coincidentally Beane was in London yesterday, appearing with Ars?ne Wenger on stage at the "Leaders in Performance" conference at Stamford Bridge. Their presence together, at an event attended by a impressive cast including Martin Johnson, the England rugby coach, underlined how seriously British sport now takes metrics. So, too, the five stands in the exhibition hall taken by companies like Pro-Zone and Opta who are now selling recruitment analysis as well as match statistics.

 

Speaking exclusively to The Independent, Beane said: "You would have a hard time finding any major sport in the world which is not using metrics in some way. Performances in baseball are much more easily measured than in soccer but each sport has a metric which is relevant, it is identifying it. Basketball is much more similar to soccer and many NBA teams are using metrics."

 

Beane became a fan of English football some years ago when he watched a match while in London and now rises at 5.30am each weekend to follow the Premier League on TV. He has worked with Spurs, is friends with Chelsea's performance director Mike Forde, and has had discussions with young managers like Aidy Bothroyd and veterans such as Sir Alex Ferguson. Confidentiality meant he could not go into details, but he said the use of metrics is growing in the English game.

 

It could increase dramatically with the Red Sox involvement at Anfield but before Liverpool fans despair Beane had only praise for NESV. He said: "I know John Henry and the ownership group, they are one of the brightest, most innovative and successful sports franchises in the US. Boston is not a dissimilar franchise to Liverpool. It has a passionate fanbase and a history. They combined efficiency on the field with a great team and incredibly increased the awareness of the brand. The Red Sox are as popular in the States as the [New York] Yankees, which once seemed impossible. They have been good for the game."

[Redguard]

Excellent stuff and thanks to Dojji, Virgil Stallcup & LfcKev71.

 

It does look quite technical and the possibilities of number crunching are endless. I can see why John Henry et al. are really into this. They appear to have already adapted it's application, (possibly even weeks ago) to suit LFC. Buying football players (soccer to you lads) I imagine is quite similar to buying baseball players. At Liverpool there have been some absolute stars who came from obscurity and yet fitted into a well-oiled machine; notibly under Bill Shankly and Bob Paisley, both of whom were from humble backgrounds. Bob Paisley notibly won amongst other titles 3 European Cups - a fete still unsurpassed in British Football. Todays managers seem to have different ideas and emphasis on psychology, diet, fitness, tactics etc. I can see that Metrics will play a major part in player aquisition and that under John Henry the most obvious star may well not be the ideal candidate when it comes to the transfer window.

 

What I'll do now is take some time to absorb the info, that you all kindly took the time & effort to give me, and endeavour to unravel the basics without blowing a few valves. Lol.

 

Cheers lads.

[Dojji]

Actually the moneyball A's are not all that great. Beane's farm system really isn't that productive, so the moves he makes to acquire useful veterans and outperforming schlub rookies really isn't nearly enough to make me consider him a good GM.

Beane makes shrewd moves, but he's fallen in love with himself and seems a lot of the time to make moves just to make a move. A lot of very talented former Athletics, such as Dan Haren, now do their damage for someone else, and the players Beane gets in return for them, while talented, tend to also find their way to other teams in yet ANOTHER trade (Carlos Gonzalez anyone?). I feel like he's trying to be a bigger factor in the game than the players on the field, like he feels that's expected of him. It's a common failing of a GM or other executive who gets unprecedented praise while he's still young, so he rides what got him the praise instead of keeping on innovating, which was was the real cause of it.

 

You have to have a foot in both camps in order to be a really great team. Numbers are fine things, but you can't calculate heart or team chemistry. You can, however, calculate consistency and see if a player is doing what you seem to see that he's capable of doing, frequently enough to be meaningful.

 

It's too easy to fall in love with one side or the other of the stats v scouting spectrum. You can wear your eyes out staring at spreadsheets only to wind up signing a major attitude problem, or you can get a the hustlingest, grittiest batch of losers in history because the players, while they're talented and look good, have consistency problems and fundamental weaknesses in their approach that the numbers could tell you about. Both sides in this discussion are better off for listening attentively to the other one.

 

A good general manager would not throw out the list a veteran manager presented of players he'd like to see replace his injured man. He would ask for the list first, and incorporate it with his own in order to see if there's any overlap and if there is, move those guys to the top of the list as agreeable to both parties independently.

[flred]

Oh dear, it looks like the 9 point deduction is back on. I wouldn't put it passed H&G to ensure we get it, just out of spite.

[Redguard]

That's quite true Dojji - analysis has it's place but it has it's place but is no substitute for basic instinct and experience. Still, I expect that we'll be hearing a lot more about Metrics over here.

 

Flred - this is a moot point. The loan is against the holding company and not LFC. Plus these articles are veiled in terms of 'could.' From what I've read the financial 'experts' point to the club being safe in this respect and even so under the terms of how Liverpool operate the FA would not be in agreement.

 

Away from a possible 9 points -if you read this article it may brighten up your day .........

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/oct/08/martin-broughton-liverpool-takeover-bid

 

Cheers

RG

[flred]

That's nice. Broughton always came across as a total professional, I found it almost embarrassing the way some "fans" were saying he would sell our players to Chelsea and was merely a stooge for H&G.

 

Mancs lose 80m. No wonder they stopped trolling here.

[BSN07]

I love the fact that Talksox has been infiltrated by the Brits

[Dojji]

Me too, it's really interesting to hear from this complete other culture that's suddenly over here talking about things that you sort of half understand. It's almost like learning.

[Dojji]

That's quite true Dojji - analysis has it's place but it has it's place but is no substitute for basic instinct and experience. Still' date=' I expect that we'll be hearing a lot more about Metrics over here.[/quote']

 

No substitute, no, but it can be a supplement. If the metrics weren't producing positive effects they wouldn't be used. To be the best team you can be, an approach that honors both and allows you to make as informed a decision as possible is probably the way to go.

[SlasherB]

Seriously, Keegan as manager?

Sorry, but nah, not for me. Great player for sure, but he is not the leadership we need to take us forward.

I would go for Hiddink if anyone to be honest.

 

Redguard you are a charmer mate!

[LFCKEV71]

The Premier League have given NESV their blessing to go ahead with the purchase of the club.

 

BUT NESV yet to submit proof of funds & future finance info.

[Redguard]

That's nice. Broughton always came across as a total professional, I found it almost embarrassing the way some "fans" were saying he would sell our players to Chelsea and was merely a stooge for H&G.

 

Mancs lose 80m. No wonder they stopped trolling here.

 

Right, now if you compare the Man Utd article with what Broughton was saying, then regardless of when the Glazers have to refinance they may well contravene the new regulations at the end of 2012. If that is the case then Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea might well be up the proverbial without a paddle.

 

Re the 9 points - this article deals with 'insolvency', so I wouldn't really worry too much .....

 

[Redguard]

Me too' date=' it's really interesting to hear from this complete other culture that's suddenly over here talking about things that you sort of half understand. It's almost like learning.[/quote']

 

Hi Dojji. We are learning a lot over here as events are unfolding fast. G&H as it stands will go to the High Court in London next week - it won't drag out too long. If G&H can't get 280m Pounds by next week (Friday) then they're stuffed. If they lose, in which there is every indication, and they appeal then that would be sorted in 72 hours. John Henry has the opportunity of going to RBS and buying the debt outright if he wishes, leaving him to square up to G&H in the courts. My guess is that he can allow the courts to resolve the issue next week, unless he has to step in for whatever reason.

[Redguard]

Seriously, Keegan as manager?

Sorry, but nah, not for me. Great player for sure, but he is not the leadership we need to take us forward.

I would go for Hiddink if anyone to be honest.

 

Redguard you are a charmer mate!

 

Slasher, you amaze me at times. Read it again! Lol.

:harhar:

[SlasherB]

Slasher, you amaze me at times. Read it again! Lol.

:harhar:

 

Not about Keegan mate, just you with the "Ladies".......!

The Charmer you are.

 

Right now I want to fast forward to next Friday. Hopefully this will be sorted!!!!

[Redguard]

Not about Keegan mate, just you with the "Ladies".......!

The Charmer you are.

 

Right now I want to fast forward to next Friday. Hopefully this will be sorted!!!!

 

Me too mate.

[BSN07]

Me too' date=' it's really interesting to hear from this complete other culture that's suddenly over here talking about things that you sort of half understand. It's almost like learning.[/quote']

 

I agree. Although I have been privy to this lot for a few years now. The Dutch are crazy for futbal. And the culture surrounding the game is amazing. It's a very "NFL style" fan base and following. People just lose their minds over it. It's awesome :thumbsup:

 

I played when I was younger, but never followed the sport. Now I follow international play(viva Oranje!). I don't have a favorite team really. But outside of international I think the Premiere league is the best watch. The dutch have some solid leagues as well. Maybe now with the Henry group taking over Liverpool FC, I may have found a reason to really follow a team. Seems like we could get good conversation about it even here.

[dafurf]

I agree. Although I have been privy to this lot for a few years now. The Dutch are crazy for futbal. And the culture surrounding the game is amazing. It's a very "NFL style" fan base and following. People just lose their minds over it. It's awesome :thumbsup:

 

I played when I was younger, but never followed the sport. Now I follow international play(viva Oranje!). I don't have a favorite team really. But outside of international I think the Premiere league is the best watch. The dutch have some solid leagues as well. Maybe now with the Henry group taking over Liverpool FC, I may have found a reason to really follow a team. Seems like we could get good conversation about it even here.

 

We might even be given our own sub forum in a dark corner somewhere....................

[BigSox]

I agree. Although I have been privy to this lot for a few years now. The Dutch are crazy for futbal. And the culture surrounding the game is amazing. It's a very "NFL style" fan base and following. People just lose their minds over it. It's awesome :thumbsup:

 

I played when I was younger, but never followed the sport. Now I follow international play(viva Oranje!). I don't have a favorite team really. But outside of international I think the Premiere league is the best watch. The dutch have some solid leagues as well. Maybe now with the Henry group taking over Liverpool FC, I may have found a reason to really follow a team. Seems like we could get good conversation about it even here.

You might have fun 'learning' on here then mate - http://scouse.forum-gratuiti.com/liverpool-fc-f1/

 

Tis our own forum and one of our admins is also exiled in Dutchland We've already been joined by your very own SPudboy

[Red_Success]

I agree. Although I have been privy to this lot for a few years now. The Dutch are crazy for futbal. And the culture surrounding the game is amazing. It's a very "NFL style" fan base and following. People just lose their minds over it. It's awesome :thumbsup:

 

I played when I was younger, but never followed the sport. Now I follow international play(viva Oranje!). I don't have a favorite team really. But outside of international I think the Premiere league is the best watch. The dutch have some solid leagues as well. Maybe now with the Henry group taking over Liverpool FC, I may have found a reason to really follow a team. Seems like we could get good conversation about it even here.

 

I too follow Oranje, I'm English but a lot of lfc fans don't tend to follow the national England team, which is a long story.

Was happy when Liverpool bought babel and kuyt, but babel hasn't quite worked out.

[Carradona]

I too follow Oranje, I'm English but a lot of lfc fans don't tend to follow the national England team, which is a long story.

Was happy when Liverpool bought babel and kuyt, but babel hasn't quite worked out.

 

something of an understatement.

 

luckily im half argentine so i support them in the national tournaments, supporting england can drive you mad!!

[ORS]

I've a question to the Red Sox lads out there.

 

Doing some preliminary research I've come across the term 'metrics' and it's application to baseball and possibly football. In my field of work I've sometimes worked closely with some athletes and footballers. Could someone please give me a general overview of 'metrics' and application please?

 

Thanks.

You asked for general, but unfortunately you received some specific responses, with the specifics detailing some of the metrics that will, in no way, be helpful to understanding how this will impact Liverpool FC.

 

Generally, what "metrics" means in regards to sports performance analysis is formulae that attempt to make data meaningful where it matters most, whether or not good performance in the data fields leads to winning more games. I don't follow football all that closely, so I don't know what metrics will be helpful in fielding a better team, but you can count on one thing happening. John Henry will use those that do and employ the services of those who are likely to identify more.