The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Will617]

Cincinnati, Colorado, Milwaukee

[Dipre]

Cincinnati' date=' Colorado, Milwaukee[/quote']

 

Colorado is, for the most part, a product of their stadium. That's not even in question. Cincinatti has Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Rolen and ?????, the core six of Philly is probably still stronger. I can concede Milwaukee, but the Phillies are probably better right now than Colorado and Cinci.

 

Remember, we're working under the assumption of full health, something the Phillies did not enjoy last season.

[Will617]

Colorado's road performance is also perhaps a product of their stadium. If you look at their team home/road splits in batting average (something that should not be drastically affected by increased HRs, etc), it's a drastic split. They had the worst away BA of all teams last season (.228) and the best home BA of all teams (.298). Going back a few seasons, that seems to be a very strong trend, and one so drastic that would suggest that playing in Coors also hurts them on the road. Plus, it's not like the Phillies play in a pitcher's park.

The Reds have Drew Stubbs, who is not a bad player; Cabrera, who has been slightly above-average for SS his career (although he may have lost a step); Jonny Gomes, same deal with Stubbs (very similar wOBA, similar type of player - low BA/OBP, high power), and Ramon Hernandez, who has also been above-average over the last few years. None of them are standouts, but when many of the players on the Phillies are just slightly above average (Rollins and Ruiz), I think the Reds have arguably a better lineup.

[Dipre]

The Reds have Drew Stubbs, who is not a bad player; Cabrera, who has been slightly above-average for SS his career (although he may have lost a step); Jonny Gomes, same deal with Stubbs (very similar wOBA, similar type of player - low BA/OBP, high power), and Ramon Hernandez, who has also been above-average over the last few years. None of them are standouts, but when many of the players on the Phillies are just slightly above average (Rollins and Ruiz), I think the Reds have arguably a better lineup.

 

When comparing lineups, i believe you should do it on a position-by-position basis:

 

Howard

 

Utley > Phillips.

 

Ruiz > Hernandez.

 

Rollins > Cabrera.

 

Polanco

 

Ibanez > Gomes

 

Victorino > Stubbs

 

Brown

 

 

The way i see it, the Phillies have the advantage in five out of the eight offensive positions, and in the ones they don't have the advantage, it's close with the exception of 3B. I list Ruiz as a no-doubter when compared to Hernandez because of his superiority in both components of OPS.

 

I think you're selling the Phillies lineup short here. And if they can get a decent OF, they're right back in the conversation for best NL lineup.

[Will617]

And I think you're selling it long (is that a saying? I'm not too sure).

First, there's no possible way they can acquire another OF. They're already looking to dump Ibanez and Blanton after the Lee deal.

Second, in the areas where the Phillies are better than the Reds, they are generally not better by much (except when comparing Utley to Phillips), IMO.

Third, I believe Jay Bruce is significantly better than Domonic Brown (and I mean really significantly). Perhaps as much as the difference between Utley and Phillips. And, Ibanez is on the decline; the difference between Ibanez and Gomes is not very large, though I think Ibanez is slightly better. And, Stubbs is as good, if not better than, Victorino (though I may be a bit biased, since I rate Stubbs very highly). Going by your logic, I feel that they are very similar in position-by-position numbers.

Fourth, the Phillies are very vulnerable to LH pitching, given that Polanco, Victorino and Ruiz are their only RH batters. I would not be surprised if the Phillies had to face a left-handed reliever in the majority of their games.

Finally, the Phillies 772 runs. The Reds scored 790. Phillies get some more of Utley, lose Werth; Reds get a bit more of Rolen.

[Keeper]

Cabrera probably won't be the Reds' SS in 2011. If it's Paul Janish, big advantage to Philly, although Janish is good defensively. I'm thinking they'll give Zack Cozart a chance if Janish struggles.

 

Stubbs and Victorino is pretty close. I would expect Stubbs to keep improving. I'd say it's a draw.

[Dipre]

And I think you're selling it long (is that a saying? I'm not too sure).

First, there's no possible way they can acquire another OF. They're already looking to dump Ibanez and Blanton after the Lee deal.

Second, in the areas where the Phillies are better than the Reds, they are generally not better by much (except when comparing Utley to Phillips), IMO.

Third, I believe Jay Bruce is significantly better than Domonic Brown (and I mean really significantly). Perhaps as much as the difference between Utley and Phillips. And, Ibanez is on the decline; the difference between Ibanez and Gomes is not very large, though I think Ibanez is slightly better. And, Stubbs is as good, if not better than, Victorino (though I may be a bit biased, since I rate Stubbs very highly). Going by your logic, I feel that they are very similar in position-by-position numbers.

Fourth, the Phillies are very vulnerable to LH pitching, given that Polanco, Victorino and Ruiz are their only RH batters. I would not be surprised if the Phillies had to face a left-handed reliever in the majority of their games.

Finally, the Phillies 772 runs. The Reds scored 790. Phillies get some more of Utley, lose Werth; Reds get a bit more of Rolen.

 

If you use Victorino's career .770 OPS (he played injured for large portions of '10), the difference between him and Stubbs (who can't get on base to save his life) becomes much more apparent. Stubbs is not better than Victorino. That is a stretch.

 

Also, i think the Phillies' weakness against LHP is a bit overblown, since the only guy in the Phillies lineup that is absolutely weak against left-handers is Howard.

 

I never said they weren't similar, i just think that, completely healthy, the Phillies have a better lineup than the Reds, and why wouldn't the Phillies get another OF? It doesn't have to be a guy who makes a ton of money, they simply need a guy that can hit LHP to platoon with Brown who, by the way, might be better than Stubbs if given the chance next year.

[Keeper]

If you use Victorino's career .770 OPS (he played injured for large portions of '10)' date=' the difference between him and Stubbs (who can't get on base to save his life) becomes much more apparent. Stubbs is not better than Victorino. That is a stretch.[/quote']

 

SSS, but Stubbs' career OPS is also .770. He has more power than Victorino, and his walk rate (9.4% in your first full season is pretty damn good) is higher. If Stubbs can raise his BA 10-15 points, his OBP will be very respectable. Victorno is better at making contact. Stubbs strikes out too much. But he definitely could be better than Victorino next season.

[Dipre]

SSS' date=' but Stubbs' career OPS is also .770. He has more power than Victorino, and his walk rate (9.4% in your first full season is pretty damn good) is higher. If Stubbs can raise his BA 10-15 points, his OBP will be very respectable.[/quote']

 

It is an SSS, but take note of the fact that it's almost impossible for him to raise his BA and consequently OBP if he's striking out 32.7% of the time. And judging by his .330 BABIP, his BA should have probably been lower.

 

I realistically like the chances of Victorino returning to a high .700's, low .800's performance with full health this year than i do seeing Stubbs raising his OBP enough for his power to make up the gap in OBP and contact with Victorino.

[Keeper]

If Stubbs continues to whiff at that alarming rate, I agree with you. But if he makes strides, he has more upside than Victorino.

[Dipre]

If Stubbs continues to whiff at that alarming rate' date=' I agree with you. But if he makes strides, he has more upside than Victorino.[/quote']

 

Stubbs' MILB K% figures: 25.8 %

 

He's been whiffing at alarming rates since he broke in as a pro (28.6 % in A ball, 22.8% in AA, 26.7% and 25.3 % across two stints in AAA) , 32.8% in his first full MLB season.

 

Looks like a trend to me.....

[Will617]

It is an SSS, but take note of the fact that it's almost impossible for him to raise his BA and consequently OBP if he's striking out 32.7% of the time. And judging by his .330 BABIP, his BA should have probably been lower.

 

I realistically like the chances of Victorino returning to a high .700's, low .800's performance with full health this year than i do seeing Stubbs raising his OBP enough for his power to make up the gap in OBP and contact with Victorino.

 

Stubbs stole 30 bases, so it's not unreasonable for his BABIP to be .330. Faster players have higher BABIPs.

The strikeouts are a concern, but it's not like he will be a bad player with a high strikeout rate. It just means that his OBP likely won't exceed .350 or so (if he's lucky), which isn't a bad rate. Just look at the K% leaderboard, a lot of those players are quite good.

Many of the available OFs cost some money. Even Jeff Francoeur got a $2.5 million deal. Given that the Phillies are looking more to unload an OF, rather an acquire one, I doubt they have the payroll flexibility to add anything.

[BSN07]

I'm betting Philly is the mystery team

 

I agree. Think Lee surprised a lot of people tonight with this deal. All the talk was about how long he'd been waiting to get a max contract and wouldn't leave any money on the table. Apparently' date=' those sources were wrong.[/quote']

 

Straight cash homie :thumbsup:

[BoSox21]

According to Heyman:

 

"word now is, philly has a deal in place with boston for blanton. @ken_rosenthal mentioned #redsox possibility this a.m."

 

Dear God why....

[yeszir]

Guys there's a general MLB hot stove thread

[BSN07]

According to Heyman:

 

"word now is, philly has a deal in place with boston for blanton. @ken_rosenthal mentioned #redsox possibility this a.m."

 

Dear God why....

 

:what:

 

I mean he is 3M cheaper then Dice-K. But what are they giving up and who are they moving for what? Blanton means another trade of some sort IMO. It's an odd rumor. Blanton I guess makes for a decent #5. Probably more dependable health wise then Dic-K has been. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. Of course Heyman has been whiffing at an alarming rate this winter, so we will see.

[BSN07]

Guys there's a general MLB hot stove thread

 

Normally I would agree. But the Lee signing had many implications for the Red Sox and AL East I believe. Even more so with the new "Blanton to the Red Sox" rumor that just surfaced.

[BSN07]

Word is that the Phillies have a Blanton deal in place with the Red Sox, tweets SI's Jon Heyman. As one MLBTR commenter noted below, Boston's goal might have been to help facilitate Lee signing with a National League club. The Red Sox could always flip Blanton in the coming months, taking that burden off the Phillies.

 

Hmm interesting take on the situation. Adding another SP isn't the worst thing ever. i wonder who is going back. Could Philly have an interest in Cameron?

[yeszir]

But the discussion of CIN vs PHL doesn't belong in this thread

[BSN07]

But the discussion of CIN vs PHL doesn't belong in this thread

 

Ah I see said the blind man

 

So what do you think of this Blanton Business? Curt Young must have given the thumbs up right?

 

BTW did you get my message about customizing name?

[Palodios]

As surprising as it may seem, I think Cameron is untouchable right now. 3 LHH in the outfield, and Cameron hits RHH and can play any position out there.

[BSN07]

No agreement has been finalized, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford. A deal is unlikely, tweets ESPN's Gordon Edes.

 

Ok well, I'm gonna sit back now and let it play out. I've learned my lesson about getting sucked into these Twitter battles of contradicting reports. Especially when they come out every 10 minutes.

[BSN07]

As surprising as it may seem' date=' I think Cameron is untouchable right now. 3 LHH in the outfield, and Cameron hits RHH and can play any position out there.[/quote']

 

It would seem that way wouldn't it? Guess it could be just for a couple middling prospects. But as the Twitter feeds are just getting warmed up, I doubt this goes threw anytime soon. It's like the FO allows the reporters completely exhaust a subject to the point of of crotch punching. And then they make their move lol.

[Palodios]

Daily memo to the New York Yankees

 

Sign Carl Pavano:D

[BSN07]

Daily memo to the New York Yankees

 

Sign Carl Pavano:D

 

:joke:

[Dojji]

As surprising as it may seem' date=' I think Cameron is untouchable right now. 3 LHH in the outfield, and Cameron hits RHH and can play any position out there.[/quote']

 

I'm not so sure. It's not like they can't bring up a lesser roleplayer such as Daniel Nava or Jordan Parraz, or sign Bill Hall for that matter to provide the same RHH off the bench a lot cheaper. If you can clear Cameron's salary for the price of putting up with a bench schlub playing the same role, I'd go for it. And a real bonus if you can get Hall back as a RHH platoon guy who can play infield or outfield. I love guys with true IF/OF ability and Hall is one of the few guys like that out there.

[Palodios]

In the last four seasons-- including 2010, he has hit lefties .900 or better. And he's a considerably better defender than any of the players you're suggesting.

[Meh]

:what:

 

I mean he is 3M cheaper then Dice-K. But what are they giving up and who are they moving for what? Blanton means another trade of some sort IMO. It's an odd rumor. Blanton I guess makes for a decent #5. Probably more dependable health wise then Dic-K has been. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. Of course Heyman has been whiffing at an alarming rate this winter, so we will see.

 

its obvious you took him on so the phillies could sign lee and the yankees wouldn't get him. Oh well at least you have your set up man now.

[Dojji]

In the last four seasons-- including 2010' date=' he has hit lefties .900 or better. And he's a considerably better defender than any of the players you're suggesting.[/quote']

 

Fair point, but he'd need to get at least 350 at bats to justify that salary and I'm not sure it's happening.

[Palodios]

He's not going to justify that salary anywhere. He's better off platooning with the sox than being paid to start somewhere else.