Red Sox 25 Man Roster for 2010

[Dipre]

Bay hit 9 more homers and had 25 more RBI's' date=' The SLG was close (Youk led by 9 points) but all of that and more was based on the BA difference. Bay led the team with a .270 IsoPower to Youk's .238. Bay was the sox best power threat. Youk is the better offensive player, but Bay is the bigger power threat[/quote']

 

At the risk of alienating even more posters () here's what i think about your "further road regression:

 

You take Bay's beautiful .987 road OPS from last year, and replace it with Mike Cameron's .813 career road OPS, massive blow.

 

But then:

 

You take Varitek's .591 (!) road OPS last year, and replace it with V-Mart's .847 road OPS for a full season, while taking adavantage of Varitek's home and Lefty splits.

 

You take Nick Green's .574 (!) road OPS and replace it with Scutaro's career .727 road mark.

 

You take Mike Lowell's .713 road OPS mark, and replace it with Beltre's .826 career road mark.

 

Those scenarios won't be carried out exactly, but taking those three road auto-outs and replace them with guys who can, you know, not be auto-outs on the road, and it doesn't logically translate into another horrible offensive season on the road. Or so say the stats.

[jacksonianmarch]

I already went over the Varitek and Vmart thing. Expect Tek to start 60 games or so since I bet VMart starts only about 100 games at catcher provided he's healthy

[Dipre]

I already went over the Varitek and Vmart thing. Expect Tek to start 60 games or so since I bet VMart starts only about 100 games at catcher provided he's healthy

 

I'm sure the Red Sox know fully well about Varitek's offensive woes and where and when he should be played to be more effective. Expect most of his games to be at Fenway and against lefties.

[kreinbihl34]

Actually when Martinez was traded Shapiro was quoted telling Theo that to prevent a drastic drop in Vmart's offense, he should only start around 100 games at catcher.

 

I'm not trying to stir up anything, just repeating what I read.

[Dipre]

Actually when Martinez was traded Shapiro was quoted telling Theo that to prevent a drastic drop in Vmart's offense, he should only start around 100 games at catcher.

 

I'm not trying to stir up anything, just repeating what I read.

 

It has been said, which is why you slot in Varitek for around 55-60 starts, but there are a lot of options regarding this issue. Varitek can still mash lefties, specially at home. So there are plenty of scenarios where V-Mart can play DH or 1B.

[Imperial59]

I already went over the Varitek and Vmart thing. Expect Tek to start 60 games or so since I bet VMart starts only about 100 games at catcher provided he's healthy

 

When Varitek's rested, he's a great hitting catcher. Last year he had an OPS of .881 in April and .824 in May before wearing down in the second half. The year before he had an OPS of .809 in April and .913 in March before wearing down in the second half.

[Imperial59]

The Red Sox are always going to score more runs at Fenway than they do on the road. Fenway is a great hitting park. And a lack of offense on the road certainly was an issue last year, but it's something that the Red Sox addressed in a big way.

 

They replaced Varitek (.182/.281/.358 hitter on the road last year) with V-Mart (.323/.403/.522 hitter on the road last year). They replaced Green (.206/.284/.290 on the road last year) with Scutaro (.322/.405/.429 hitter on the road last year) and they replaced Lowell (.276/.331/.382 hitter on the road last year) with Beltre (.292/.349/.512 and .288/.320/.538 hitter on the road the last two years he was healthy).

Even if Beltre sucks next year, that's a .286 point difference in OPS at catcher and a .260 point difference in OPS at shortstop. If Beltre repeats his down season last year, his road OPS would still be a few points better than Lowell's last year.

 

Statistically, Varitek and Green were by far the Red Sox worst hitters on the road last year. Lowell was the team's 4th worst hitter on the road, a small amount behind Ortiz in OPS.

 

Sorry, Jacko but even with Bay gone... OMG, PANICKS ROFL! (stole that from your ever so elegant vocabulary)... the Red Sox will likely be a better hitting team on the road next year.

[example1]

Example' date=' defense is not as tangible and even with all the metrics we have, it is incredibly difficult to quantify how much a change from Bay to Cameron is on the defensive end. That being said, the defensive change at that position is not as important. Its LF in Fenway. Nobody was screaming about LF D when Manny was around, and he was a miserable OFer. Now it is the center of the media spin job. [/quote']

 

Its LF and CF, in Fenway and on the road.

 

I critiqued this team when Manny was in LF, and acknowledged freely that Manny was not as valuable as his offensive numbers might show because of his defense. It was obvious that his defense hurt the team, and that's just as good as taking runs off the board.

 

The sox biggest problem, as the yr winded down, was the fact that the sox couldnt hit good pitching. They would f***ing crush mediocre to bad pitching. But a good pitcher who threw strikes would dominate the sox. And it was born out in the playoffs and on the road. Now take away the sox biggest power threat and add in a mediocre offensive player and you make that worse. This is the point. I also think that the loss of Lowell's bat for Beltre's is overlooked.

 

And Jason Bay was part of that lineup Jacksonian. Teams have different ways of winning, but you are advocating for Bay by saying that when they had Bay they didn't get it done. You're right, they do need to add some offense before this team is exactly where the fans will want it, but Jason Bay would have been a DH after a year or they would be assured of a crappy LF contract for the duration of Bay's tenure.

 

We will probably be talking about this for a long time, so clearly the jury is out. However, I expect that their offense will be where they want it to be sooner than later, but they have their eyes on a limited number of players.

[Imperial59]

The sox biggest problem' date=' as the yr winded down, was the fact that the sox couldnt hit good pitching.[/quote']

 

Jacko, it's hard to take you seriously when this is what, the third "biggest" problem the Sox had down the stretch last year? Don't be such a drama queen. Everything you want to criticize the Sox for can't be their "biggest problem". You kind of have to pick one and stick with it, rather than claiming they had a new "biggest problem" every time we disprove the statistical validity of the "biggest problem" you claimed the team had a day or two before.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its LF and CF, in Fenway and on the road.

 

I critiqued this team when Manny was in LF, and acknowledged freely that Manny was not as valuable as his offensive numbers might show because of his defense. It was obvious that his defense hurt the team, and that's just as good as taking runs off the board.

 

 

 

And Jason Bay was part of that lineup Jacksonian. Teams have different ways of winning, but you are advocating for Bay by saying that when they had Bay they didn't get it done. You're right, they do need to add some offense before this team is exactly where the fans will want it, but Jason Bay would have been a DH after a year or they would be assured of a crappy LF contract for the duration of Bay's tenure.

 

We will probably be talking about this for a long time, so clearly the jury is out. However, I expect that their offense will be where they want it to be sooner than later, but they have their eyes on a limited number of players.

 

Jason Bay was part of that lineup. But he was their best power threat. You dont improve in that category by removing your best power threat and replacing him with an equally K prone hitter with significantly worse skills.

 

You guys get bent out of shape when I show you the problems with the roster. The fact is, you are putting an awfully lot of pressure on your pitching staff. And I bet they can handle it to a tune of 90-95 wins and a wild card berth. But to sit there and say they are better without even acknowledging the fact that their offense just took a walk off a cliff is blind. Very blind.

 

Yes, you get your full season of Victor, but that doesnt mean he plays a full season at catcher. Tito had him playing 1B or DH 40% of the time last yr. Tek is still around, so that's probably going to be a consistent theme, as long as Victor remains healthy. So 40% of the time, you are talking about Victor replacing Youkilis, Papi, or Beltre (with Youk moving to 3b) in the lineup, making the offensive improvement a bit less potent. And, the sox catchers last yr hit to a tune of .750OPS. That isnt actually that bad (9th in baseball). With VMart catching 60% of the games and Tek catching the other 40%, you can probably expect that number to go up, but not by that much. I predicted (based on ratio of last yr's OPSs) that the 2010 catching OPS for the sox would be .789. A 39 point upgrade.

 

But the dropoffs at 3b and LF are massive. Lowell was a consistent Fenway force who had a .811OPS last yr. Bay was the sox biggest power threat with a .921OPS, and team highs in HR (36) and RBI (119). The dropoff from Bay to Cameron includes 17 points in BA, 11 homers, 25 runs scored, 49RBI, 19 walks, 6 stolen bases, and 127 points of OPS. Now there are those who think Cameron can improve on those numbers in Fenway, which is totally possible. But the guy is also 37 yrs old meaning that he could just fall off a cliff as well. I am sorry, but the defense does not make up for 127 points of OPS especially with the age issue creeping in.

 

The Lowell to Beltre dropoff is interesting to look at, but at least he has a higher likelihood of being made up if Beltre stays healthy. Now, I'll write off the testicle injury, that's a freak accident. But what about the shoulder injury in June? Is he recovered from that? Is that why Beltre was absolutely abysmal offensively in 2009? Or was it just a bad yr? Who knows. The 2009 dropoff was dramatic. For a fan base claiming health at 3b, Lowell actually played more games in 2009 than Beltre did. But whats kinda eery is that they both had almost exactly the same amount of at bats. In those ABs, Lowell hit 9 more homers, had 31 more RBIs, walked 12 more times, and had an OPS that was 128 points higher. Now, if you go by his 2008 season, the OPS difference is only 27 points in favor of Lowell and the move to Fenway should make up the difference. But one needs to ask the question, is he healthy? Was 2009 a fluke? And will he rebound to his pre-2009 totals? All valid concerns especially with the spectre of lingering injury around his head, as you know, shoulder injuries are never good things, especially if they sap hitters of their power or pitchers of their velocity.

 

The Scutaro addition is a definite offensive improvement. But by how much? The sox SS's had a .660OPS in 2009, which was one of the worst in the majors. Scutaro, had a career yr with his .788OPS. But, looking at his numbers, I doubt he maintains it. He's 34 yrs old, so we arent talking about a prospect that should get better as his career moves on. But he has played 6 seasons of 100 or more games in his career. In those 6 seasons, he's cracked a .700OPS 3 times. That means, 3 seasons were below .700. The last time he did that was in 2008 (.697OPS). Lets say he replicates that. The offensive difference will be a 37 point OPS change. You go from abysmal to awful.

 

Then you have to look at the 800lb elephant in the room. With Bay gone, there is a TON more pressure on David Ortiz. Ortiz slots into the #5 spot in the lineup behind Youkilis. He had a tale of two halves. Good second half. Absolutely miserable first half. At his age, with his knees and wrists, his weight, and his recent history, should anyone expect him to rebound? Or was the end of 2009 the final salvo in his short but brilliant career? If Papi doesnt come back to the 30HR 100RBI plateau like he rallied to do at the end of 2009 then this middle of the order is mush. I will never put anything past Ortiz since he murdered us in the middle of last decade, but I highly doubt he's better than 2009 and will likely be worse.

 

The other question is Drew's health. He's getting older and he was surprising durable last yr (137 games). But if he is out for an extended period of time, you get to go with abysmal defense in Hermida and a much worse hitter.

 

Yes, your defense is improved. Beltre is much better defensively than Lowell. Ellsbury in LF will be much better than Bay. Cameron in CF should be better than Ellsbury in UZR, although he is getting to an age where the wheels will slow and I am not sure that Ells was actually THAT bad. Scutaro is a downgrade over AGon, though, which is kinda funny since SS is probably the most important defensive position but the downgrade at that position gets overlooked. Plus, the defense at catcher with Victor there remains abysmal. I think defense is important when you have pitchers who absolutely rely on it. But with power pitchers and with only one true GB pitcher (Lackey), I dont think it's going to have as much of an effect as you think it will. Especially in LF at Fenway, where anything routine is caught and anything non-routine is over or off the wall.

 

All of this above should kinda grant some levity to the sox offensive and defensive situation. The offense is worse just on face value and has the potential to be much worse depending on how Beltre rebounds and how Papi and Drew play (or don't play in Drew's case) for 2010. That puts a lot more pressure on the sox staff. One that has Beckett, Lester and Lackey headlining and probably up to task. One of the reasons why I think the sox are the odds on WC favorite and should be a shoe in for the playoffs. But if any of those three go down for an extended period of time (like Lackey last yr or Beckett at the end of both 2008 and 2009) then they are done. The losses of this offseason left the sox a bit less balanced between offense and pitching requiring the pitching to pick up the slack.

[Dipre]

^Lol.

 

You say one thing, the statistics show another, and i'll believe the statistics.

 

What pressure are you talking about? This is a team that will score over 800 runs, and won't put as much pressure on the pitching staff on the road.

 

We don't get bent out of shape because "you show problems with the roster" but because you make a ton of s*** up and ignore the statistical or logical evidence that goes against everything you say. Please stop making s*** up. Like Imperial59 said you have a new "This is the Sox' biggest problem" every other day. It's tiring.

[jacksonianmarch]

show me where I made anything up in the above post.

[Dipre]

show me where I made anything up in the above post.

 

Not in the above post, (even though it is a doomsday device post)

 

But how about not hitting on the road, they will only score 810 runs on less, etc etc etc.

[Plumpamania]

Bay hit 9 more homers and had 25 more RBI's' date=' The SLG was close (Youk led by 9 points) but all of that and more was based on the BA difference. Bay led the team with a .270 IsoPower to Youk's .238. Bay was the sox best power threat. Youk is the better offensive player, but Bay is the bigger power threat[/quote']

 

BA doesn't effect SA...sorry.

[Dojji]

BA doesn't effect SA...sorry.

 

You kidding? BA is the single biggest influence in slugging. It's TB/BA, so every single counts.

[Dipre]

Kevin Youkilis had an XBH every 9.18 Plate appearances. He hit a home run every 21.7 plate appearances.

 

Jason Bay had an XBH every 9.38 Plate appearances. He hit a home run every 17.7 plate appearances.

 

They were really not that far apart.

[Plumpamania]

Okay maybe I overstated, but if I had a .400 BA and hit all singles...

[Dojji]

Which is why SLG can't stand up on its own as an overall measure of player's hitting ability. Which is cool, because it really doesn't try to.

[Plumpamania]

I agree, my wording caused an obvious misconception.

[ORS]

The Lowell to Beltre dropoff is interesting to look at' date=' but at least he has a higher likelihood of being made up if Beltre stays healthy. Now, I'll write off the testicle injury, that's a freak accident. But what about the shoulder injury in June? Is he recovered from that? Is that why Beltre was absolutely abysmal offensively in 2009? Or was it just a bad yr? Who knows. The 2009 dropoff was dramatic. For a fan base claiming health at 3b, Lowell actually played more games in 2009 than Beltre did. But whats kinda eery is that they both had almost exactly the same amount of at bats. In those ABs, Lowell hit 9 more homers, had 31 more RBIs, walked 12 more times, and had an OPS that was 128 points higher. Now, if you go by his 2008 season, the OPS difference is only 27 points in favor of Lowell and the move to Fenway should make up the difference. But one needs to ask the question, is he healthy? Was 2009 a fluke? And will he rebound to his pre-2009 totals? All valid concerns especially with the spectre of lingering injury around his head, as you know, shoulder injuries are never good things, especially if they sap hitters of their power or pitchers of their velocity.[/quote']

I challenge you to reconcile this cautious approach with your assurances re: Posada's health. Very similar situations, very different conclusions reached on your part.

[Dipre]

I challenge you to reconcile this cautious approach with your assurances re: Posada's health. Very similar situations' date=' very different conclusions reached on your part.[/quote']

 

If there's someone on this site i'd like to buy a beer for (even with the Presidente hate) it's you.

[Imperial59]

But the dropoffs at 3b and LF are massive. Lowell was a consistent Fenway force who had a .811OPS last yr.

 

The ONLY way Beltre is in any way a drop off is if he repeats his career worse year offensively. Do you expect Granderson to repeat his 100 OPS+ last year, or do you only assume career worse offensive performances from Red Sox players?

 

One second you're claiming the Red Sox can't hit away from home, the next you're claiming the Sox are worse off because Lowell was a force at Fenway. Beltre had better numbers than Lowell on the road last year, even though it was the worse offensive year of his career. And he figures to get the same help from Fenway that Lowell did.

[Dipre]

^Lol.

 

You say one thing, the statistics show another, and i'll believe the statistics.

 

What pressure are you talking about? This is a team that will score over 800 runs, and won't put as much pressure on the pitching staff on the road.

 

We don't get bent out of shape because "you show problems with the roster" but because you make a ton of s*** up and ignore the statistical or logical evidence that goes against everything you say. Please stop making s*** up. Like Imperial59 said you have a new "This is the Sox' biggest problem" every other day. It's tiring.

 

show me where I made anything up in the above post.

 

Not in the above post, (even though it is a doomsday device post)

 

But how about not hitting on the road, they will only score 810 runs on less, etc etc etc.

 

The ONLY way Beltre is in any way a drop off is if he repeats his career worse year offensively. Do you expect Granderson to repeat his 100 OPS+ last year, or do you only assume career worse offensive performances from Red Sox players?

 

One second you're claiming the Red Sox can't hit away from home, the next you're claiming the Sox are worse off because Lowell was a force at Fenway. Beltre had better numbers than Lowell on the road last year, even though it was the worse offensive year of his career. And he figures to get the same help from Fenway that Lowell did.

 

Lol.

 

I challenge you to reconcile this cautious approach with your assurances re: Posada's health. Very similar situations' date=' very different conclusions reached on your part.[/i']

 

Lol.

[jacksonianmarch]

I challenge you to reconcile this cautious approach with your assurances re: Posada's health. Very similar situations' date=' very different conclusions reached on your part.[/quote']

 

Posada had a solid yr last season even though he only played 118 games. I expect him to play about 110-120 games this yr again. I dont ever expect him to go back to 140 games

 

Also, Posada's shoulder was fixed and came back pretty strong, weaker definitely but pretty strong. Beltre's shoulder injury was rehabbed. Who knows if it is gone completely or not.

[jacksonianmarch]

The ONLY way Beltre is in any way a drop off is if he repeats his career worse year offensively. Do you expect Granderson to repeat his 100 OPS+ last year, or do you only assume career worse offensive performances from Red Sox players?

 

One second you're claiming the Red Sox can't hit away from home, the next you're claiming the Sox are worse off because Lowell was a force at Fenway. Beltre had better numbers than Lowell on the road last year, even though it was the worse offensive year of his career. And he figures to get the same help from Fenway that Lowell did.

 

Beltre from 2008 wasnt as good as Lowell from 2009. Also, Beltre was hurt in 2009 and we dont know if that shoulder is gonna be a chronic issue. It obviously sapped his power and it wasnt fixed. I dont think Beltre's yr was a down yr just by chance. He's better than those numbers. I think it was due to injury. It remains to be seen if he rehabbed through it or if it is still lingering

[Lester82]

I expect him to play about 110-120

 

So now he might play two more games than he even did in 2009, at another year older.

[Imperial59]

Beltre from 2008 wasnt as good as Lowell from 2009.

 

Beltre from 2008 had a WAR 4 times Lowell from 2009. I think it's safe to say rather conclusively that he Beltre was much better. Even if you were JUST talking offense, Beltre had a higher OPS+ and hit .292/.349/.512 on the road compared to Lowell's .276/.331/.382.

 

Any way you slice it, Beltre was the much better player in 2008 then Lowell was last year. So unless you're assuming Beltre will be hurt again next year, the Red Sox improved both their defense and offense at third base.

[Imperial59]

Posada had a solid yr last season even though he only played 118 games. I expect him to play about 110-120 games this yr again. I dont ever expect him to go back to 140 games

 

Also, Posada's shoulder was fixed and came back pretty strong, weaker definitely but pretty strong. Beltre's shoulder injury was rehabbed. Who knows if it is gone completely or not.

 

Beltre's shoulder wasn't just rehabbed. He had surgery on it last June. There goes that excuse. Guess you're either going to have to be fair about how you talk about his shoulder in comparison to Posada's from now on or be a complete homer.

[Imperial59]

Nobody cares what you think. WAAAAAAA. You sound like a 2 yr old. Go back in your hole.

 

:clap:

 

Irony.

[riverside sluggers]

Saying a dropoff from Bay to Ellsbury is just the same as Lowell to Beltre is plain asinine