Red Sox 25 Man Roster for 2010

[jacksonianmarch]

It's a very good post Dipre. Thats the problem, you guys are glossing over exactly why the sox lost in the first round and exactly why they finished 2009 as the WC. They dont hit on the road. They absolutely mash at home, but they cannot hit on the road at all. Making your offense worse is not the way to fix that.

 

Also, everyone is saying that 2010 should be great because DiceK should be healthy. Well, he threw all of 160IP in 2008 even though he was healthy AND WENT DOWN WITH A SHOULDER INJURY in 2009. I am sorry, but to consider him anything but a question mark going into this season is blind homerism.

 

After the acquisition of Lackey and the weakening of Detroit and LAA, I think the sox really just need to win 90 games to be the WC. I think that's likely. But home field is so important for Boston that a WC berth for them will likely be a bounce from the playoffs. And I dont think the sox stack up at all to NYY.

[Dipre]

It's a very good post Dipre. Thats the problem, you guys are glossing over exactly why the sox lost in the first round and exactly why they finished 2009 as the WC. They dont hit on the road. They absolutely mash at home, but they cannot hit on the road at all. Making your offense worse is not the way to fix that.

 

Also, everyone is saying that 2010 should be great because DiceK should be healthy. Well, he threw all of 160IP in 2008 even though he was healthy AND WENT DOWN WITH A SHOULDER INJURY in 2009. I am sorry, but to consider him anything but a question mark going into this season is blind homerism.

 

After the acquisition of Lackey and the weakening of Detroit and LAA, I think the sox really just need to win 90 games to be the WC. I think that's likely. But home field is so important for Boston that a WC berth for them will likely be a bounce from the playoffs. And I dont think the sox stack up at all to NYY.

 

Did i say it wasn't a good post?

 

I said separating would have made it easier to read, for one. Second, why call JD Drew Nancy Drew?, third, what team isn't in trouble if they lose one of their best pitchers?, and how can you trade for a player if the other ballclub doesn't agree at least until the TDL?

 

Stop putting words in my mouth.

 

The real problem here is your pathetic attempt to convince everyone that the Sox are a worst ballclub than 2009, which is obviously not what OP said in his post. Maybe you didn't read it through?

[Dipre]

It's a very good post Dipre. Thats the problem, you guys are glossing over exactly why the sox lost in the first round and exactly why they finished 2009 as the WC. They dont hit on the road. They absolutely mash at home, but they cannot hit on the road at all. Making your offense worse is not the way to fix that.

 

Also, everyone is saying that 2010 should be great because DiceK should be healthy. Well, he threw all of 160IP in 2008 even though he was healthy AND WENT DOWN WITH A SHOULDER INJURY in 2009. I am sorry, but to consider him anything but a question mark going into this season is blind homerism.

 

After the acquisition of Lackey and the weakening of Detroit and LAA, I think the sox really just need to win 90 games to be the WC. I think that's likely. But home field is so important for Boston that a WC berth for them will likely be a bounce from the playoffs. And I dont think the sox stack up at all to NYY.

 

A couple other things:

 

1) You're massively overstating the extent of Dice-K's injury, which is a downright pathetic argument.

 

2) No one gives a s*** if the Sox stack up to NY (and in your opinion to boot). What we give a s*** about is making the playoffs, where, in a short series, the two teams do stack up against each other, whether you like it or not.

 

3) You're massively overstating the extent in which the offense was weakened, which is another pathetic argument.

 

All in all, more homerism and bitterness from you. If anything, since you're trying so hard to diminish this particular Red Sox team and convincing yourself "they don't scare you at all" and "they don't stack up well" i think you're actually s***ing your pants about this Red Sox team.

[TedWilliams101]

It's a very good post Dipre. Thats the problem, you guys are glossing over exactly why the sox lost in the first round and exactly why they finished 2009 as the WC. They dont hit on the road. They absolutely mash at home, but they cannot hit on the road at all. Making your offense worse is not the way to fix that.

 

Also, everyone is saying that 2010 should be great because DiceK should be healthy. Well, he threw all of 160IP in 2008 even though he was healthy AND WENT DOWN WITH A SHOULDER INJURY in 2009. I am sorry, but to consider him anything but a question mark going into this season is blind homerism.

 

After the acquisition of Lackey and the weakening of Detroit and LAA, I think the sox really just need to win 90 games to be the WC. I think that's likely. But home field is so important for Boston that a WC berth for them will likely be a bounce from the playoffs. And I dont think the sox stack up at all to NYY.

 

Our pitching last season wasn't good (16th in the league at 4.35) and was worse on the road (4.62). Adding Lackey with a Healthy DiceK, more mature Buchholz, and vastly improved defense should make a huge difference in run prevention.

 

All that matters is run differential and teams built for pitching/defense are ideal for the playoffs.

[Dipre]

Our pitching last season wasn't good (16th in the league at 4.35) and was worse on the road (4.62). Adding Lackey with a Healthy DiceK' date=' more mature Buchholz, and vastly improved defense should make a huge difference in run prevention.[/quote']

 

We were 3rd in runs scored at 872.

 

You can't tell me the loss of Jason Bay will send the Sox plummeting down to the 810-820 mark. That is ********.

[riverside sluggers]

Dice-K threw 160 innings in a full season because he was being stubborn, wanting to go his own way. He averaged like 5-6 innings a start because he was already at 100 pitches by then. After what happened in the WBC then him having to go through spring training all again, it showed to him that he is pitching in the MLB now... not on the other side of the planet

 

Oh and also the Red Sox were ranked 28th of the 30 teams in defensive efficiency... Id be surprised if they dont have at least one gold glove award winner this year

[Imperial59]

Also' date=' everyone is saying that 2010 should be great because DiceK should be healthy. Well, he threw all of 160IP in 2008 even though he was healthy AND WENT DOWN WITH A SHOULDER INJURY in 2009. I am sorry, but to consider him anything but a question mark going into this season is blind homerism.[/quote']

 

Is a pitcher who's been on the disabled list 10 odd times since 2000 any less of a question mark? AJ Burnett is a lot more important to the Yankees rotation than Daisuke is to ours.

 

After the acquisition of Lackey and the weakening of Detroit and LAA' date=' I think the sox really just need to win 90 games to be the WC. I think that's likely. But home field is so important for Boston that a WC berth for them will likely be a bounce from the playoffs. And I dont think the sox stack up at all to NYY.[/quote']

 

Frankly, no one cares what you think Jacko. The Red Sox improved significantly in multiple aspects. Did the Yankees? I'd say they upgraded their rotation going from Sergio Mitre to Javier Vazquez and they improved their defense in left field. But that's about it.

[yankees228]

If Gardner does EXACTLY what he did last yr, and I expect him to be better, then he will be worth more than Melky. Melky's OPS was in the .740 range last yr. Gardner's was .724. That 16 point drop is offset by the steals. Gardner had about a half season worth of ABs and stole 26 bases in his first real test in the bigs. He's gonna be a 50 steal kind of guy. A guy who reaches base around 35% of the time and can steal at will is pretty valuable. And disagreeing with that statement knocks your own guy. Gardner is a poor man's Ellsbury. Gardner has a better eye, worse contact skills and less power. Both bring very similar skillsets to the table. Plus, seeing as you guys are buying it, IT BRINGS BETTER DEFENSE TO LF ROFL.

 

Now, if you are going to compare offensive players, then you have to compare where they will sit in the lineup. So I compare Damon to Johnson and Matsui to Granderson. Offensively, the switch from Damon to Johnson is a wash. Using OPS for that is where you fail. Johnson will be in the 2 spot in the order IMO. And his .420OBP is worth more than the gain in SLG that you get from Damon. Plus, with Damon's speed game essentially gone, the difference closes. Add in the fact that Damon was built for Yankee Stadium and Johnson played all of last yr in pitchers parks, then one should expect Johnson's power to pick up. I dont expect him to hit 24 homers like Damon did, but he'll probably hit 15-20 over the course of the season, which is something he has proven he is more than capable of doing.

 

The Matsui for Granderson thing is where the difference is. Now, comparing the 2009 Matsui to the 2009 Granderson shows a pretty big gap in OPS mostly based on Matsui's improvement in the OBP and AVG category. Curtis will not give the same kind of eye that Matsui did even prior to 2009. But Curtis' 2007 and 2008 numbers show he is a better player than he was in 2009, even though his 2009 was still solid. Move him to NY where the porch in RF is ridiculous and he could be a 35+ homer kind of guy. Surround him with a better lineup and he should get that OPS over .800 again. He's my wild card. But the other thing that he brings is health. Matsui's knees stayed intact for 2009, but they let him go because they dont think he will in 2010. I tend to agree with them, mostly because he kept needing them drained throughout the season. Having a guy who doesnt need his knees drained every 3 weeks is a boon.

 

So, if everyone plays to their 2009 totals even with the massive change in venue, then it is a minor dropoff offensively, and it is only in the Matsui to Granderson drop. But I think the venue change and the rebound from a poor 2009 from Granderson will get this lineup to even or better than 2009.

 

And since you guys buy into this whole defense in LF thing, having Granderson and Gardner interchangeably between LF and CF especially in death valley would show that we improved as well. See, DEFENSE IN LF IS AWESOME!

 

The kicker for 2010 is the addition of Vazquez. That is where this team is CLEARLY better than 2009. Last season, we had Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre starting in the 5 hole with Aceves throwing a game here and there. Now Gaudin did pretty well, but Mitre was awful to bad last yr. Replacing that spot with Vazquez' continuous 200IP 200K performance will be a HUGE boon for the team, especially the pen, which gets to have a clear cut setup guy in either Hughes or Joba. The rotation is head and shoulders better for 2010 and the pen with Marte's resurgence after injury and one of the young kids out there should be even to better.

 

I agree with most of this. Good post Jacko.

 

The other thing, if healthy, is that you'll be looking at a full season from A-Rod, and a full season from Chamberlain/Hughes (whoever isn't starting) as the setup man. Those are two things they didn't have last year.

[Imperial59]

So' date=' if everyone plays to their 2009 totals even with the massive change in venue, then it is a minor dropoff offensively[/quote']

 

You heard it here first. For the first time this offseason, Jacko has admitted that the Yankees offense is likely to regress.

[Imperial59]

The kicker for 2010 is the addition of Vazquez. That is where this team is CLEARLY better than 2009. Last season' date=' we had Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre starting in the 5 hole with Aceves throwing a game here and there. Now Gaudin did pretty well, but Mitre was awful to bad last yr.[/quote']

 

I like our "kicker" of John Lackey a lot better. Both teams will likely see minor offensive regression. But the Red Sox improved their pitching and defense A LOT more than the Yankees did.

 

Marte's resurgence after injury and one of the young kids out there should be even to better.

 

You do realize that Marte isn't very good, right? He's got a career 3.46 ERA (3.66 FIP). Not exactly set up guy material. He's averaged about 40 innings a season the last 3 years, and he's going to be 36. The Yankees will have one legitimate set up option next year if Hughes can repeat on his small sample size last year. They don't have a whole lot of depth in their pen. Mostly young, unproven guys.

[Imperial59]

Having a guy who doesnt need his knees drained every 3 weeks is a boon.

 

Don't be a drama queen, Matsui played 140+ games last year. What are the chances his replacement at DH plays that many games? He's only done it once in 8 career years. If you're trying to make a case that the health of the Yankees DH is likely to improve next year, you'd probably be better off trying to make a case that Damaso Marte is a better reliever than Jonathan Papelbon.

[italstallianion]

Don't be a drama queen' date=' Matsui played 140+ games last year. What are the chances his replacement at DH plays that many games? He's only done it once in 8 career years. If you're trying to make a case that the health of the Yankees DH is likely to improve next year, [b']you'd probably be better off trying to make a case that Damaso Marte is a better reliever than Jonathan Papelbon[/b].

 

 

But for your sake, don't try and make that case.

[jacksonianmarch]

You heard it here first. For the first time this offseason' date=' Jacko has admitted that the Yankees offense is likely to regress.[/quote']

 

You seriously are a moron. I said that if there was no park effect at all and both play EXACTLY like they did in 2009 (both players had less than average seasons) then it will be a minor dropoff.

[jacksonianmarch]

Is a pitcher who's been on the disabled list 10 odd times since 2000 any less of a question mark? AJ Burnett is a lot more important to the Yankees rotation than Daisuke is to ours.

 

 

 

Frankly, no one cares what you think Jacko. The Red Sox improved significantly in multiple aspects. Did the Yankees? I'd say they upgraded their rotation going from Sergio Mitre to Javier Vazquez and they improved their defense in left field. But that's about it.

 

Nobody cares what you think. WAAAAAAA. You sound like a 2 yr old. Go back in your hole.

[Dipre]

Nobody cares what you think. WAAAAAAA. You sound like a 2 yr old. Go back in your hole.

 

The irony is delicious.

[jacksonianmarch]

We were 3rd in runs scored at 872.

 

You can't tell me the loss of Jason Bay will send the Sox plummeting down to the 810-820 mark. That is ********.

 

No, the loss of Bay will not send them down to 810 runs because the sox still play in Fenway. Last yr, the sox scored 481 runs at home. That's 17 more runs than the closest team and 21 more runs than the Yankees scored at home. Away from home, they scored 391 runs, good for 9th in the MLB, 64 runs behind the Yankees, who led the league in that category. Adding Cameron and Beltre should keep the runs scored in Fenway within maybe 25 of last yr. The big difference is their scoring on the road. Because the sox need to score more than 391 runs on the road. And with this team, I dont see it happening.

[riverside sluggers]

Having a full season of V-Mart (capable of 20 HRs, 100 RBIs) rather than Tek wouldnt help their offense be better then

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox were 9th in baseball with a .750OPS from the catcher's position.

 

Victor Martinez caught 82 games last yr between Boston and Cleveland. He caught 55 games in 2008. The last time he caught over 100 games was 2007, when he caught 118 games. He caught 31 of the 53 games he started in the field while in Boston. That means, to me at least, that the sox arent really going to rely on him as a 120 game starting catcher. I'd probably say that he catches 100 games at most with him playing a lot of 1b and DH to give rest to the corner IFs and Papi.

 

Now, lets assume that he catches 2/3 of the games and Tek catches 1/3. If you use Victor's career .832 OPS and Varitek's OPS of .703 from 2009 then you can get a rough estimate of .789 or so, which is an improvement of 39 points at that position. Its significant, but it isnt a 130 point increase that most people are relying on

[example1]

No' date=' the loss of Bay will not send them down to 810 runs because the sox still play in Fenway. Last yr, the sox scored 481 runs at home. That's 17 more runs than the closest team and 21 more runs than the Yankees scored at home. Away from home, they scored 391 runs, good for 9th in the MLB, 64 runs behind the Yankees, who led the league in that category. Adding Cameron and Beltre should keep the runs scored in Fenway within maybe 25 of last yr. The big difference is their scoring on the road. Because the sox need to score more than 391 runs on the road. And with this team, I dont see it happening.[/quote']

 

 

Why does it seem like your arguments disregard run differential as a legitimate measure of a team's quality? I don't understand... :dunno:

 

I keep reading about their drop off in offense, which I agree with. Anyone would agree with it, its a very simple argument. Bay was a better offensive producer than Cameron has been.

 

What you aren't accounting for is that the guy they replaced Bay with, Mike Cameron, has been more valuable than Bay when offense and defense are taken into account and next year, just like every other year so far, defense will still be an important part of the game. You may not believe that, but both baseball prospectus and fangraphs corroborate Cameron as a better player. Not every run that they lost needs to be replaced.

 

Furthermore, I haven't yet seen you break down what impact the defensive acquisitions are going to have on the run differential. Its like you are saying "the offensive loss in runs is tangible, so they're going to be 'X' amount worse, but the defense is just going to help them here and there, it's not tangible and it isn't significant."

 

The Red Sox basically let Bay go in favor of Mike Cameron and John Lackey. Any good GM in baseball would trade Bay for Lackey and Cameron. It's not that difficult.

 

I think they have improved pretty clearly on their 2009 team. I don't think that means they are better than the Yankees. They managed to retool without getting sucked into long contracts for inferior players and they're still going to be one of the best teams in baseball next year.

 

What didn't happen, which many people could have legitimately feared, is they did not fill their roster with longterm committments that will keep them from having the flexibility to improve their team as needed in the next few years. That in itself is a victory, as I will be sure to rub in your face in 2011 and 2012 when this is a really good team.

 

 

More than the argument above, I'm curious about why it gives you so much pleasure to bring other fans down when you have nothing to back you up? I mean, it's one thing when your team is actively beating the Sox on the field or in the standings, but during the off season what difference does it make, other than to make you look like an intellectual bully who gets joy out of making others feel bad?

 

Not only are your arguments poor and largely subjective, they are presented with a vast amount of self-serving masturbatory language that nobody finds convincing. Why not give it up? It's sad.

[jacksonianmarch]

Example, defense is not as tangible and even with all the metrics we have, it is incredibly difficult to quantify how much a change from Bay to Cameron is on the defensive end. That being said, the defensive change at that position is not as important. Its LF in Fenway. Nobody was screaming about LF D when Manny was around, and he was a miserable OFer. Now it is the center of the media spin job.

 

On that note, how many people on this site thought that offense was the sox biggest problem at the end of 2009? A lot of people were talking about it, but have conveniently forgot about it now that they have taken a pretty significant step back. I made the post a month or so ago when Bay was still an option. But over the last 3 months, the sox had something like 5-6 more games of 7+ runs than the Yankees, who were the bigs best offense. But they had 9 or so more games of 3 or less runs. The sox biggest problem, as the yr winded down, was the fact that the sox couldnt hit good pitching. They would f***ing crush mediocre to bad pitching. But a good pitcher who threw strikes would dominate the sox. And it was born out in the playoffs and on the road. Now take away the sox biggest power threat and add in a mediocre offensive player and you make that worse. This is the point. I also think that the loss of Lowell's bat for Beltre's is overlooked.

[Dipre]

No' date=' the loss of Bay will not send them down to 810 runs because the sox still play in Fenway. Last yr, the sox scored 481 runs at home. That's 17 more runs than the closest team and 21 more runs than the Yankees scored at home. Away from home, they scored 391 runs, good for 9th in the MLB, 64 runs behind the Yankees, who led the league in that category. Adding Cameron and Beltre should keep the runs scored in Fenway within maybe 25 of last yr. The big difference is their scoring on the road. Because the sox need to score more than 391 runs on the road. And with this team, I dont see it happening.[/quote']

 

My belly aches from laughing.

[Dipre]

Example, defense is not as tangible and even with all the metrics we have, it is incredibly difficult to quantify how much a change from Bay to Cameron is on the defensive end. That being said, the defensive change at that position is not as important. Its LF in Fenway. Nobody was screaming about LF D when Manny was around, and he was a miserable OFer. Now it is the center of the media spin job.

 

On that note, how many people on this site thought that offense was the sox biggest problem at the end of 2009? A lot of people were talking about it, but have conveniently forgot about it now that they have taken a pretty significant step back. I made the post a month or so ago when Bay was still an option. But over the last 3 months, the sox had something like 5-6 more games of 7+ runs than the Yankees, who were the bigs best offense. But they had 9 or so more games of 3 or less runs. The sox biggest problem, as the yr winded down, was the fact that the sox couldnt hit good pitching. They would f***ing crush mediocre to bad pitching. But a good pitcher who threw strikes would dominate the sox. And it was born out in the playoffs and on the road. Now take away the sox biggest power threat and add in a mediocre offensive player and you make that worse. This is the point. I also think that the loss of Lowell's bat for Beltre's is overlooked.

 

You mean the reactionary posts?

 

Oh yeah, those.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your act is getting tired. Is it time to tuck tail and run again?

[Dipre]

Your act is getting tired. Is it time to tuck tail and run again?

 

You mean what you do mr. strawman and cop-out?

 

The premise is ridiculous.

 

The Sox were a bad road club last year, but trying to "predict" their road production for 2010 is downright laughable. But oh wait, it's coming from you, so it's the norm.....

[jacksonianmarch]

So. They become a worse offense, yet they won't be worse on the road, even though they flat out sucked on the road last yr and got worse?

[Dipre]

So. They become a worse offense' date=' yet they won't be worse on the road, even though they flat out sucked on the road last yr and got worse?[/quote']

 

"So, things will "even themselves out" over a career for Javy Vasquez, but they won't "even themselves out" on the road for the 2010 Red Sox. Who will not have Jason Varitek and Nick Green in their lineup anymore, and added three guys with no significant home/road split issues plus a full year of Victor Martinez?

 

Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro, V-Mart career home/road splits by OPS. (Away bolded)

 

Cameron:

 

.762/813

 

Beltre:

 

.727/.826

 

Scutaro:

 

.717/.725

 

V-Mart:

 

.826/.847

 

Feel free to reach a bit more, but check the stats before you do so. My debating skills may suck, but at least i know what i'm talking about.

[jacksonianmarch]

That bit of "research" is pretty biased too. The only significant difference is with Beltre and that's due to his ridiculous home field throughout his career. The point stands, though. The sox are built for Fenway. Lefties who hit the other way well and righties who pull the ball constantly. Take that bit on the road, and they arent as successful. You take away your biggest power threat and dont replace that, then you should regress. It isnt rocket science.

[Dipre]

That bit of "research" is pretty biased too. The only significant difference is with Beltre and that's due to his ridiculous home field throughout his career. The point stands' date=' though. The sox are built for Fenway. Lefties who hit the other way well and righties who pull the ball constantly. Take that bit on the road, and they arent as successful. You take away your biggest power threat and dont replace that, then you should regress. It isnt rocket science.[/quote']

 

It's biased because he has shown he can hit in the road?

 

That is absolute ********.

 

They are built to win at Fenway, but they're all good away-from-home hitters. Can you disprove that?

 

How can there be a massive offensive drop-off on the road when they've added guys that have proven to be solid road performers?

 

That premise is absolutely ridiculous.

[Imperial59]

You take away your biggest power threat and dont replace that' date=' then you should regress. It isnt rocket science.[/quote']

 

Did the Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis while I was at work? Because he was the team's biggest power threat last year.

 

Besides, there's a lot more to a team's offense than one player. I don't know why you keep acting like losing Bay has made the Red Sox offense so feeble. The difference in his OPS+ and Matsui's less year was only 3 points and you keep acting like losing Matsui's bat isn't that big of a deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bay hit 9 more homers and had 25 more RBI's, The SLG was close (Youk led by 9 points) but all of that and more was based on the BA difference. Bay led the team with a .270 IsoPower to Youk's .238. Bay was the sox best power threat. Youk is the better offensive player, but Bay is the bigger power threat