Mike Cameron signs with Red Sox

[SCM33]

This is inherently based on the fact that UZR/150 is a valid statistical model, which I completely disagree with.

 

If you believe that UZR is an accurate model, then yes, it would make sense. If you don't, as I do not, then Cameron's value drops off the face of a cliff. I do not believe a player's defensive value is what you see in this statistical model. Far from it. Which is why I believe that the Cameron deal is a big mistake for the Red Sox for two reasons.

 

1) The Red Sox FO over-value his defense.

2) This will most likely keep them from getting a big bat in the OF.

 

1. Overvalue his defense? If Bay doesnt come back, the Sox significantly improved their OF defense.

2. It doesnt keep them from improving their Offense in other areas. They already have from last season, with a full year of Martinez at C, and a new SS (although I originally hated the signing, it looks better now).

 

The team has already bettered itself defensively, and I think there is another brick to drop, and if it is Gonzalez, then are are significantly better offensively, defensively, and pitching with the signing of Lackey.

[Cocos Disciples]

Right' date=' but WAR has a defensive component, one that Gom does not find valid. If someone was not to trust UZR/150, then they don't trust WAR, or they have to look at it without the defensive component.[/quote']

 

Is the defensive component based on UZR or something else?

[a700hitter]

Will you groan about him making nice catches or good throws? How about securing the OF defense for what is now the best pitching staff in baseball? Seems like a very reasonable move to me' date=' especially if they follow it with a good corner IF.[/quote']It's not a terrible move if they land Adrian Gonzalez, but it is Christmas and I was hoping for Gonzalez and Holliday. You don't have something against hope and change... do you?

[sniper3177]

why stop at lackey and 85 go for holliday and Beltre

[Emmz]

I think the plan is to pursue Gonzo, and move Youk to 3B

[a700hitter]

I think the plan is to pursue Gonzo' date=' and move Youk to 3B[/quote']Since the Lowell to Texas trade seems to be dead, would the Sox DFA Lowell if the get Gonzalez. I can't see keeping him to ride the bench.

[Gom]

I think the plan is to pursue Gonzo' date=' and move Youk to 3B[/quote']

 

This has been the theme for quite some time. Just filling you in since you haven't been around lately.

[sniper3177]

REDSOX 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPS

[ORS]

Is the defensive component based on UZR or something else?

Yeah, it's UZR.

 

It would probably be better if they just grabbed random fan's opinions, though.

[Emmz]

This has been the theme for quite some time. Just filling you in since you haven't been around lately.

 

I was responding to the post before mine.

[sniper3177]

GONZO WOULD BE NICE BUT DO YOU DO WITH LOWELL

[Gom]

Yeah, it's UZR.

 

It would probably be better if they just grabbed random fan's opinions, though.

 

My guess is a random fan would be able to tell over the last three years that Adrian Gonzalez is a terrible overall fielder, right?

[ORS]

Your guess, your opinion, what's the difference?

[Gom]

Your guess' date=' your opinion, what's the difference?[/quote']

 

More accurate than UZR.

[Tyler Durden]

GONZO WOULD BE NICE BUT DO YOU DO WITH LOWELL

 

Caps dude

[ORS]

More accurate than UZR.

No.

[SoxSport]

The pieces are falling in place now that Bay's agent killed any chances of Bay staying in Boston.

Cameron is probably slotted in LF. Maybe he can help Ellsbury learn how to play CF better. AdGon may be the final piece--for Buchholz and one of those minor league studs mentioned in rumors. Or they can keep Buchholz and sign Johnson to play 1B? Or sign Beltre to play 3B? Just like Fantasy Baseball.

[Dojji]

Lowell. Is. Still. Here.

 

Right now we don't have a hole at corner IF, and have no place to put Beltre, Johnson or Gonzalez.

 

Now if Lowell goes on the 60 day DL with that thumb of his, or we dump him and eat the money, that's another question, but until we do, Lowell is a Red Sox.

[TedWilliams101]

When I am at the game groaning about him striking out on three pitches with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs' date=' I'm not looking at the stats. To me he is a decent compiler of stats year after year, but you'll see what i mean soon enough. As for his fielding, I haven't checked the zone rating etc., but he doesn't get after it like he used to.[/quote']

 

Cameron's career line: .250, .340, .342, .788

Cam Career RIPS line: .261, .369, .461, .830

Runner on 3rd.....line: .282, .351, .476, .827

3rd w/ less than 2outs: .304, .370, .509, .879

 

Last year I'll admit that he wasn't great with runners on but over his career he has been good(as recently as 2008). The stats don't agree with your assessment.

[Gom]

No.

 

Absolutely more accurate than UZR. Not even remotely close. Of course, my ratings are relative and not quantative, but still much more accurate.

 

The funny thing, I would actually believe your scouting report on a player you watched live over UZR. It's not that I think you and I are demi-Gods, it's just that the formula itself is useless.

[Ray10]

Decent pickup for the Sox I see him most likely platooning with Hermida.

[riverside sluggers]

Ill be shocked if this team isnt one of the 5 best defensive teams in baseball

 

Decent signing for Boston. Cameron is an upgrade of Bay when it comes to the glove, he could give 20/75 type of season. Hermida is an obvious upgrade over Baldelli who couldnt stay healthy to be the 4th OF

 

Overall Im feeling much better about this upcoming season... If Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez come next, itll be like im getting a good shot of morphine

[Imperial59]

$100.5 million today

 

Yeah, now they just need to sign Holliday, Adrien Beltre, Mike Gonzalez, Ron Villone, Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, Felipe Lopez and Joe Crede and their payroll will start to kind of approach that of the Yankees.

[Imperial59]

So...can we put to sleep the Red Sox bitching and moaning about the Yankees payroll? How much did they spend today? $100 million?

 

:wetodd:

 

How is committing $100 million to free agents comparable to half a billion dollarS?

[jacksonianmarch]

Ill be shocked if this team isnt one of the 5 best defensive teams in baseball

 

Decent signing for Boston. Cameron is an upgrade of Bay when it comes to the glove, he could give 20/75 type of season. Hermida is an obvious upgrade over Baldelli who couldnt stay healthy to be the 4th OF

 

Overall Im feeling much better about this upcoming season... If Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez come next, itll be like im getting a good shot of morphine

 

Werent they the worst fielding team in the AL last yr? And they downgrade with Scutaro and upgrade in LF? Cmon now.

[a700hitter]

Cameron's career line: .250, .340, .342, .788

Cam Career RIPS line: .261, .369, .461, .830

Runner on 3rd.....line: .282, .351, .476, .827

3rd w/ less than 2outs: .304, .370, .509, .879

 

Last year I'll admit that he wasn't great with runners on but over his career he has been good(as recently as 2008). The stats don't agree with your assessment.

I'm hoping he does live up to those numbers. When he went to the Mets, I thought he would be a really good pickup, because I was aware of his numbers and reputation. Watching him day in and day out, he was a disappointment. Maybe I was expecting too much of him. I don't have a problem with the 4 OFers if they can land Gonzalez. If they land Gonzalez, what do they do with Lowell?

[riverside sluggers]

Werent they the worst fielding team in the AL last yr? And they downgrade with Scutaro and upgrade in LF? Cmon now.

 

Aside from Gonzalez... Scutaro isnt a better fielder than Lowrie, Green, Lugo and Woodward?? Cameron is a downgrade from Bay?? If they successfuly move Lowell (rated among worst 3rd baseman in 2009) and slot Adrian Beltre at 3rd or a big trade, they will be downgrading there as well?

[jacksonianmarch]

I said upgrade in LF and downgrade at SS.

[riverside sluggers]

Ah i see, they will again be one of the worst defending teams in baseball

 

The bulk of their errors came from shortstop. April to August we had Lugo, Lowrie, Green and Woodward stinking up the joint. Gonzo held the position down but it was just 2 months. Scutaro cant build on what shortstops gave the Sox for the entire 09 season?

 

I refuse to believe this team cant catch the ball in 2010

[jacksonianmarch]

If you upgrade on Lowell and keep Youk at 1b then I think the sox go to the middle of the pack. Downgrading at SS is a pretty big issue defensively.