Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dojji]

Am I remembering correctly that Ramirez was never that much of a catcher and more likely to be a 1B/DH?

 

And we need a 1B or a DH.

 

It would be a good move.

[CoachC.]

So trying to get a 3B who can actually play defense is a bad thing?

 

News to me.

 

When we already have two in Lowell and Youk it is a bad thing especially when you add in that Beltre brings very little to the table in terms of a bat. He's a career 270 hitter and seems to have lost most of the pop to his bat

[Dipre]

When we already have two in Lowell and Youk it is a bad thing especially when you add in that Beltre brings very little to the table in terms of a bat. He's a career 270 hitter and seems to have lost most of the pop to his bat

 

A) Lowell is not a good defender. Youkilis is an average defender. Beltre is a GG defender.

 

B ) Batting average? Seriously?. When you think about "losing pop" think Safeco Field, then think about Fenway. Beltre is at the very least a 20+ HR bat.

[RWTP24]

I like that idea.. Beltre might love to hit in fenway and like you said, he is a great glove. I say they do it.

[Dojji]

Beltre doesn't have much IsoD. A lot of the strength of an argument that batting average isn't much of a measure of talent ring slightly hollow in his specific case.

 

You can't pretend there isn't a risk involved in bringing in Adrian Beltre. Even if you want to wave park factors around like a war banner, the fact is that Beltre was not good at staying on the field last year, and has never been that good at gettong on base. (as mediocre as Lowell is at OBP, he's substantially better on average than Beltre).

 

Also, you're selling Lowell's defense way short. This is the first year he's even been below average for us, and there's plenty of extenuating reason to explain why. It's by no means a slam dunk that Beltre, who's had major injury problems of his own recently, is going to return to his form from a couple years ago, or that Lowell won't recover some of his range with an offseason to work on the hip.

[Dipre]

Beltre doesn't have much IsoD. A lot of the strength of an argument that batting average isn't much of a measure of talent ring slightly hollow in his specific case.

 

As usual, you're overlooking AND selling short the park factor. Beltre and your beloved lover have a similar OPS+ since Lowell came here and Beltre landed in Seattle. You can look for more tangents, but they really don't make for a strong case.

 

You can't pretend there isn't a risk involved in bringing in Adrian Beltre. Even if you want to wave park factors around like a war banner, the fact is that Beltre was not good at staying on the field last year, and has never been that good at gettong on base. (as mediocre as Lowell is at OBP, he's substantially better on average than Beltre).

 

Hmmm.....30-year-old healthy Beltre vs. 35-year-old hip surgery Lowell, i think Lowell's the biggest risk.

 

This is another instance of you hyping against an important upgrade, specially on defense.

 

Are you a Yankee fan?

 

Also, you're selling Lowell's defense way short. This is the first year he's even been below average for us, and there's plenty of extenuating reason to explain why. It's by no means a slam dunk that Beltre, who's had major injury problems of his own recently, is going to return to his form from a couple years ago, or that Lowell won't recover some of his range with an offseason to work on the hip.

 

Yeah, age and the seriousness of the procedure certainly are of no importance in the matter, he'll recuperate his prime years range in no time. Beltre's "Major injury problem" was literally busting a nut. Jesus Christ.

 

Please use logic.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/09/rangers-interested-in-lowell/

 

Looks like Lowell momentum is picking up. Just in time to welcome Beltre to town. A downgrade offensively from Lowell but an upgrade defensively.

[CoachC.]

A) Lowell is not a good defender. Youkilis is an average defender. Beltre is a GG defender.

 

B ) Batting average? Seriously?. When you think about "losing pop" think Safeco Field, then think about Fenway. Beltre is at the very least a 20+ HR bat.

 

 

1. Lowell and Youk are better over there than you give them credit for

 

2. Yeah, I'm talking batting avg because if you had seen him play you would know he'll be lucky to get to 20 HR's wherever he is hitting and you compound that with his 265 avg and a 308 OBP and its in no way shape or form an upgrade. You cant just assume he is all of a sudden going to find his power again. I mean s*** ML hit .290, 17 hr's, and had a 337 OBP

 

I'm sorry but Beltre is not an upgrade and doesnt make this team better. If anything its a completely lateral move and blocks us from trying to get the player we should be trying to get in AGonz. You trade for him put Holliday in left and then Youk at third our lineup is now on par with the Yankees where we can take the Div back. Beltre doesnt get us closer to that at all. I put this on par with the Renteria move. On the outside it looks good but once he's here you realize what a mistake it was

[Dipre]

1. Lowell and Youk are better over there than you give them credit for

 

My eyes and defensive statistics say otherwise.

 

 

 

2. Yeah, I'm talking batting avg because if you had seen him play you would know he'll be lucky to get to 20 HR's wherever he is hitting and you compound that with his 265 avg and a 308 OBP and its in no way shape or form an upgrade. You cant just assume he is all of a sudden going to find his power again. I mean s*** ML hit .290, 17 hr's, and had a 337 OBP

 

I don't care about his batting average.

 

Adrian Beltre hit 26, 25 and 25 homers with 39, 41 and 29 doubles in 2006, 07 and 08 before last year's testicle injury, please check the stats beforehand. He has more power than Lowell and is almost five years younger.

 

I'm sorry but Beltre is not an upgrade and doesnt make this team better. If anything its a completely lateral move and blocks us from trying to get the player we should be trying to get in AGonz. You trade for him put Holliday in left and then Youk at third our lineup is now on par with the Yankees where we can take the Div back. Beltre doesnt get us closer to that at all. I put this on par with the Renteria move. On the outside it looks good but once he's here you realize what a mistake it was

 

I'll take what the stats and common sense tell me over your subjective opinion any day of the week. Beltre is an upgrade defensively, has the potential to be better offensively and is a hell of a lot younger, what in heaven's name are you talking about?

[Dipre]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/09/rangers-interested-in-lowell/

 

Looks like Lowell momentum is picking up. Just in time to welcome Beltre to town. A downgrade offensively from Lowell but an upgrade defensively.

 

Yet another person who doesn't take the time to check the stats. Jesus Christ. Take Adrian Beltre's .819 road OPS since 2007 and adjust it to Fenway. Please tell me how is that an offensive downgrade?

[Rdsxmbnt]

Yet another person who doesn't take the time to check the stats. Jesus Christ. Take Adrian Beltre's .819 road OPS since 2007 and adjust it to Fenway. Please tell me how is that an offensive downgrade?

 

~.710 road OPS last year with power production dropping off a cliff last year. Am I the only one that sees a substantial amount of risk switching from one year of Lowell to a multi-year contract with Beltre?

[example1]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/09/rangers-interested-in-lowell/

 

Looks like Lowell momentum is picking up. Just in time to welcome Beltre to town. A downgrade offensively from Lowell but an upgrade defensively.

 

I would be very happy with a Lowell for Max Ramirez deal. Ramirez woudl be an attractive trade piece (or would free up another catching trade piece) and I have a feeling that Adrian Beltre is a foregone conclusion for Boston so Lowell is expendable.

[example1]

~.710 road OPS last year with power production dropping off a cliff last year. Am I the only one that sees a substantial amount of risk switching from one year of Lowell to a multi-year contract with Beltre?

 

It's like the perfect sabermetrics-argument acqusition. On the surface there is little about Beltre that excites me. Under the surface I realize that "those in the know" see his defense and (as Dipre says) road abilities as plusses.

 

He is a superior defensive player and the Sox would be in good shape to have this pitching staff and a great defense.

[Dipre]

~.710 road OPS last year with power production dropping off a cliff last year. Am I the only one that sees a substantial amount of risk switching from one year of Lowell to a multi-year contract with Beltre?

 

He was injured a lot of the time last year, playing only 117 games. He's a guy that averages nearly 150 games since coming to Seattle, and is almost 5 years younger than Lowell.

 

I don't see it.

[Dipre]

It's like the perfect sabermetrics-argument acqusition. On the surface there is little about Beltre that excites me. Under the surface I realize that "those in the know" see his defense and (as Dipre says) road abilities as plusses.

 

He is a superior defensive player and the Sox would be in good shape to have this pitching staff and a great defense.

 

This.

 

If the Sox are not going to be able to significantly upgrade run production, then they need to upgrade run prevention and try to procure offense on/near last year's level.

 

It's a no-brainer.

[example1]

This.

 

If the Sox are not going to be able to significantly upgrade run production, then they need to upgrade run prevention and try to procure offense on/near last year's level.

 

It's a no-brainer.

 

I don't know if it is a no-brainer necessarily, especially since MLBTR (linked to another story) is saying that Boras is asking for 4-5 yrs x $13m for him. To me, that's a non-starter.

 

I'd say 3 years at $8-9m max would be my ceiling...

 

I think it also likely means that:

1) We can be confident that Ortiz will be the DH in 2010

2) Youkilis will be the 1B

3) There will not be another 3B or 1B acquired for the duration of the Beltre deal (unless Beltre, the new 1B or Youk is expected to become DH)...

 

this would limit their ability to resign Bay (if we assume he'll eventually be a DH) without having to upgrade offensively later at either LF (again), SS, C or CF.

 

All real possibilities, but I think a move toward Beltre at a significant cost committment will give us some idea about where this club is going.

[Dipre]

I don't know if it is a no-brainer necessarily, especially since MLBTR (linked to another story) is saying that Boras is asking for 4-5 yrs x $13m for him. To me, that's a non-starter.

 

I'd say 3 years at $8-9m max would be my ceiling...

 

I think it also likely means that:

1) We can be confident that Ortiz will be the DH in 2010

2) Youkilis will be the 1B

3) There will not be another 3B or 1B acquired for the duration of the Beltre deal (unless Beltre, the new 1B or Youk is expected to become DH)...

 

this would limit their ability to resign Bay (if we assume he'll eventually be a DH) without having to upgrade offensively later at either LF (again), SS, C or CF.

 

All real possibilities, but I think a move toward Beltre at a significant cost committment will give us some idea about where this club is going.

 

After Figgins signed at 9 per for 4 years, there is no way in hell anyone is giving Beltre 4 years or more than 10 per. Boras is doing his usual bluff job.

[example1]

After Figgins signed at 9 per for 4 years' date=' there is no way in hell anyone is giving Beltre 4 years or more than 10 per. Boras is doing his usual bluff job.[/quote']

 

I think the Figgins point is spot-on. There's no way he makes more than Figgins does, IMO.

[ORS]

Yeah, reality is usually about 60% of what Boras throws out there (both time and AAV), unless the Yankees get involved, but that won't happen here, so those numbers look about right.

[Dipre]

My guess?

 

2/18, 12 million club option, 10 million player option, 2 million buyout.

[CoachC.]

My eyes and defensive statistics say otherwise.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't care about his batting average.

 

Adrian Beltre hit 26, 25 and 25 homers with 39, 41 and 29 doubles in 2006, 07 and 08 before last year's testicle injury, please check the stats beforehand. He has more power than Lowell and is almost five years younger.

 

 

 

I'll take what the stats and common sense tell me over your subjective opinion any day of the week. Beltre is an upgrade defensively, has the potential to be better offensively and is a hell of a lot younger, what in heaven's name are you talking about?

 

You can talk about your eyes and stats all you want. Those are the same eyes and stat analysis that thought Billy Wagner of all people would solidify the BP last year where anyone who saw Wagner pitch before knew that would be no where near the case. So yeah I dont really consider your eye a good judge of talent.

 

You want Beltre thats fine, my eye tells me he puts us no closer to closing the gap on NY and will not even come close to giving us the offense we need to compete in the AL East or to get another World Series trophy. My eyes tell me he'll become the ire of fans and we will be looking to unload him not two years into this 4 year deal he is looking for.

[Dipre]

You can talk about your eyes and stats all you want. Those are the same eyes and stat analysis that thought Billy Wagner of all people would solidify the BP last year where anyone who saw Wagner pitch before knew that would be no where near the case. So yeah I dont really consider your eye a good judge of talent.

 

Billy Wagner had a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP during his time in Boston, he got hit in one game in the playoffs, but guess what? So did Papelbon, so what is your point?

 

You want Beltre thats fine, my eye tells me he puts us no closer to closing the gap on NY and will not even come close to giving us the offense we need to compete in the AL East or to get another World Series trophy. My eyes tell me he'll become the ire of fans and we will be looking to unload him not two years into this 4 year deal he is looking for.

 

You need to go to an eye doctor. Beltre is the superior player. Only you and (lol) Doiji think otherwise.

 

Close offensive production with potential for superior offensive production? Check.

 

Vastly superior defense? Check.

 

Age advantage? Check.

 

Health advantage? Check.

 

Hell, he'll be cheaper in the long run. The logic behind regarding Lowell as the superior player escapes me, so perhaps you could teach me about it with something other than your vastly subjective opinion.

[Emmz]

 

Wait, does someone actually think Beltre ISN'T superior to Lowell?

 

I got a good laugh out of that one.

 

He had OPS around .800 every year AT SAFECO. You get him to Fenway, I think he's a prime cadidate to bounce back and have a monster year. Rising power number=More Walks=Big Rise in the OPS.

[Emmz]

Oh yeah, and seriously... Wagner was AWESOME with the Red Sox.

[a700hitter]

Our rotation is already competitive with anyone in the league. Beckett and Lester are a solid 1-2' date=' and a good year from Daisuke and/or Buchholz pretty much puts us over the top. [b']If those two BOTH have good years, we're set[/b].

 

I think 95% of our effort needs to be spent at this point on replacing Bay.

...and if the Queen had balls she would be the King. One thing that I have learned following the game for more than 40 years is that when you have lots of "ifs" and you need most of those "ifs" to happen in order to be successful, you are in for a rough season.

[Dipre]

...and if the Queen had balls she would be the King. One thing that I have learned following the game for more than 40 years is that when you have lots of "ifs" and you need most of those "ifs" to happen in order to be successful' date=' you are in for a rough season.[/quote']

 

Beltre, Holliday/Bay, starter. /offseason.

[a700hitter]

Tony Massarotti doesn't think Theo is playing things close to the vest. He thinks that he is sending a message not to get your hopes up about 2010 and 2011.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2009/12/sox_have_been_here_said_that.html

 

When Theo Epstein starts talking like this, he is trying to tell you something. He is trying to tell you that the Red Sox are in a developmental gap and that they are likely to suffer from it in 2010.

Translation: Don’t hold your breath on Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, or especially Roy Halladay.

[SoxSport]

The latest chatter points toward Lowell being moved somewhere, to open up options at 3B (Beltre) or 1B (Nick Johnson?). More likely Beltre. Rowand is a possibility for Lowell, but his contract is prohibitive (3/36?). Maybe if they don't sign Bay or Holliday.

 

This thing is still wide open. They can still go in a different directions. I tend to agree with Rosenthal that Bay or Holliday will be signed for LF. If they don't, they can sign Lackey and go for pitching and defense. I don't think Epstein will give up Buchholz for Halliday.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees add Halliday or Lackey and Holliday. They were successful last year using their money advantage buying up the best available talent, and there is nothing to stop them from doing it again. I don't think anybody else out there this year is willing to pay $20 mil per season to a player.

[Dipre]

The latest chatter points toward Lowell being moved somewhere, to open up options at 3B (Beltre) or 1B (Nick Johnson?). More likely Beltre. Rowand is a possibility for Lowell, but his contract is prohibitive (3/36?). Maybe if they don't sign Bay or Holliday.

 

This thing is still wide open. They can still go in a different directions. I tend to agree with Rosenthal that Bay or Holliday will be signed for LF. If they don't, they can sign Lackey and go for pitching and defense. I don't think Epstein will give up Buchholz for Halliday.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees add Halliday or Lackey and Holliday. They were successful last year using their money advantage buying up the best available talent, and there is nothing to stop them from doing it again. I don't think anybody else out there this year is willing to pay $20 mil per season to a player.

 

The Angels, however, offered a convincing package to the Jays for Halladay, so it looks like they're willing too.

[Emmz]

Beltre' date=' Holliday/Bay, starter. /offseason.[/quote']

 

This. However, I'm not going to lie. I REALLY want to see Holliday in Boston. I think that would be a very satisfactory offseason.