Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dojji]

if you read the first paragraph of his post' date=' thats AT LEAST what we have to do to just MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.[/quote']

 

 

 

Right, I feel that's the minimim we can possibly get away with in order to be back to where we were at the start of this season.

[TheKilo]

Every rule has its exception.

 

And remember AG is a player Theo covets and has tried to acquire twice in the past.

 

The major question, to me, is whether SD actually wants to trade him.

 

And I firmly believe the answer to your question is no.

 

What were the two instances he tried to acquire him? Links?

[bostonule25]

LOL right back at you.

 

I now know how seriously to take you.

 

Jonathan Papelbon may no longer be invincible, but he's still a fine closer. I think we all knew it'd wind up like that as his career went forward and more people saw him in action.

 

a 3.96 tRA is pretty bad for a closer. Paps will walk soon. His value is overrated, so id trade him now than just getting compensation.

[Dipre]

And I firmly believe the answer to your question is no.

 

What were the two instances he tried to acquire him? Links?

 

Question:

 

Do i have to provide a link for this year when he obviously did try to acquire him?

 

Or only for the time he tried to get him before Texas traded him to SD?

[Dojji]

Might as well post it if you have it Dipre. It'll be needed before too much longer anyway.

[Dipre]

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2009/7/26/963740/padres-red-sox-talk-adrian-gonzalez

 

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/mlb_trade_talk/posts/72443-red-sox-padres-talking-about-adrian-gonzalez

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4357577

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/thebuzz/ 2nd tidbit.

 

I have to find a couple reasonable links for the time the Sox tried acquiring him before he was traded to SD .

 

I'll keep looking 'till i find it.

[SCM33]

a 3.96 tRA is pretty bad for a closer. Paps will walk soon. His value is overrated' date=' so id trade him now than just getting compensation.[/quote']

 

His tRA is 3.00. A little higher than it has been in previous seasons, but still the best number in the bullpen of any pitcher with 20+ appearances.

[Gom]

I think you guys are giving up on Paps a little early. Let's not forget, Rivera blew the game in 97, 2001, and 2004. It happens. He's been somewhat ok after that.

[example1]

That seems reasonable Gom. Papelbon should be a longtime Red Sox pitcher, and he would be if he would just sign a f***ing extension. Until then--and if he completely rebuffs any attempts to sign him this offseason--he should be considered a piece like everyone else. He could certainly be packaged in deals if they net this team more than he's worth as an eventual unsigned FA.

[msubulldogs21]

Despite how things went today, Papelbon is still an elite closer. We know what we're going to get with him every year. I think a lot of us have taken him for granted this season with all the "Trade his ass! We have Bard anyway!" talk. I'm not saying Bard couldn't close in the future, but I don't think that's the best option for him at this point. It would be a shame to deal Papelbon only to end up having to employ the closer-by-committee or some other less than stellar option. We had our fill of that in '03.

 

Put me down as another for the Bay/Holliday and Lackey plan. It's purely a guess but I think Lackey re-signs with LAA.

[Lester82]

I know this isn't popular to say after the missed catch in the NLDS, but I wouldn't mind getting Holliday.

 

Yeah, it could be argued against with strong conviction, i.e. "National League hitter", product of Coors Field for years, etc.

 

But Gammons was saying on WEEI in Boston this past week that Holliday said while with the A's in Fenway earlier in 2009, that he always wanted to be a Cardinal or Red Sox and just wants to play where baseball matters. He also took it like a man from what I heard in his postgame after the missed catch.

 

I am no Bay fan. So maybe I just am guilty of wanting to go with something different (like Holliday)... I also would love to see an Adrian Gonzalez deal, but that requires backing up the U-Haul.

 

As will a King Felix deal.

 

Wouldn't mind getting H.Matsui to DH, believe it or not, a pipedream.... but hey, he kills the Sox. I like him as a hitter. He needs to purely be a DH though, and we have Papi clogging that spot.

[Rich1083]

I know this isn't popular to say after the missed catch in the NLDS, but I wouldn't mind getting Holliday.

 

Yeah, it could be argued against with strong conviction, i.e. "National League hitter", product of Coors Field for years, etc.

 

But Gammons was saying on WEEI in Boston this past week that Holliday said while with the A's in Fenway earlier in 2009, that he always wanted to be a Cardinal or Red Sox and just wants to play where baseball matters. He also took it like a man from what I heard in his postgame after the missed catch.

 

I am no Bay fan. So maybe I just am guilty of wanting to go with something different (like Holliday)... I also would love to see an Adrian Gonzalez deal, but that requires backing up the U-Haul.

 

As will a King Felix deal.

 

Wouldn't mind getting H.Matsui to DH, believe it or not, a pipedream.... but hey, he kills the Sox. I like him as a hitter. He needs to purely be a DH though, and we have Papi clogging that spot.

 

No way will anyone in Boston be fine with that. I could never see myself rooting for Matsui. There's just no way. Besides, he's like 80, how about some youth?

[BSN07]

I don't have any comprehensive plan to get Felix per-se (I think I can use his name now). This is the general shape of what I'm hoping the Sox will do:

 

The more I think about it, the more I think nobody should be shocked if it comes out that the Sox 'secretly' covet Matt Holliday and have decided that he is this year's target to be the highest paid Red Sox. He would fill the hole left by Bay in LF and provide them a guy they could feel more comfortable hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th, and possibly get them a draft pick.

 

We have Jason Bay because we happened to be able to get someone of his caliber for Manny. Few people believe the Sox coveted Bay more than Holliday at the time, it's just how things worked out. This FO is not known for being overly sentimental toward their own players if there is someone better, and I think this is especially true of their former players, now FA's, like Bay.

 

Before people stupidly s*** on Holliday's stint in the AL, please notice that his numbers were pretty good for a guy transitioning to a new league in a pitcher's park.

 

[table] 2009 | G | PA | R | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |

OAK | 93 | 400 | 52 | 11 | 54 | .286 | .378 | .454 | .831 |

STL | 63 | 270 | 42 | 13 | 55 | .353 | .419 | .604 | 1.023 |

TOT | 156 | 670 | 94 | 24 | 109 | .313 | .394 | .515 | .909 | [/table]

 

He's a career .318/.387/.545/.933 hitter. That's good, and that .318--though filled with less meaning than many take from it--still has meaning. It means something more than luck when you see a guy who has had seasons where he hit .307, .326, .340, .321, .313 the past 5 full seasons. His OBP is still very high, but it comes from actually hitting the ball to get on base more than looking for walks. He's also got the higher OBP and SLG, and he's a year younger than Bay.

 

Holliday over Bay may be politically incorrect and it may be getting greedy, but it may also be a more significant change than many believe. By signing Holliday they do the same thing they did with Drew--purchase the best available at a position of need and relative scarcity in baseball--and they get the player they want, not the player they liked but got incidentally... If Holliday got comfortable and started doing in Boston what he did in Colorado, THAT would be a middle of the order, pitch around/don't make a mistake to him kind of bat.

 

In one season they would have turned Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez into Victor Martinez and Matt Holliday.

 

If they felt they needed a bigger upgrade they could then sign Bay as well and plan for him to be the DH and backup LF for the next few years, or have he and Holliday platoon the position. Whatever, doesn't matter to me.

 

If, on the other hand, they believe that the addition of a full year of Martinez and the multi-year addition of Holliday (plus a healthy Dice-K and full season of Buchholz) may be enough to increase their wins for next year, then they may not pursue any of the other 'big bats' and then keep their minor-league resources for other needs.

 

Just adding Holliday they would have a lineup something like this:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Martinez

Holliday

Youkilis

Ortiz

Lowell

Drew

Lowrie

 

Bolstering the lineup with VM and MH may be enough to keep them from needing to pull off an immediate deal with lots of prospects for a big-time hitter. Instead they can use all their resources on getting Felix Hernandez.

 

We know Theo covets him badly. He will be 24 and will be under control for long enough to entice him with a huge long-term contract. The only way to get him is to overpay for him, but overpaying for him gets you a pitcher unlike any other. He's a more polished version of Josh Beckett with better stuff. You build franchises around guys like that (hence Dojji's obvious reply that the M's won't let him go) and you overpay for them. How many prospects would we have given up for Pedro in his prime? 5-times the WARP? 10? He was irreplaceable. Many people think Felix will get to that irreplaceable point.

 

Buchholz could be included in the deal and it wouldn't bother me. The main reason I'm protective about Buchholz is because he is really valuable. If he's traded away for something questionable then I would be disappointed. If he's traded away a HOF caliber ace, I can't complain.

 

The following year Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer may all be available, and Ortiz and Lowell leave. If they still need to improve corner IF production at that point, they would have some options.

 

 

 

I'm not as concerned about the SS position. If they can upgrade it they should, but if they get someone with tremendous defense then I think they could be okay.

Nice post

How exactly was this a bad year for Pap?

he tripled his walks and forgot how to throw his out pitch. My early reaction were reactionary. I'm fine if he is the closer next season, but like ex1, if he won't sign an extension, he should be made available and traded if the package is right for the club.

Every rule has its exception.

 

And remember AG is a player Theo covets and has tried to acquire twice in the past.

 

The major question, to me, is whether SD actually wants to trade him.

 

I could use your this argument against you for my Felix discussions,

 

Theo covets player- check

Theo has tried previously to acquire player- check

That seems reasonable Gom. Papelbon should be a longtime Red Sox pitcher' date=' and he would be if he would just sign a f***ing extension. Until then--and if he completely rebuffs any attempts to sign him this offseason--he should be considered a piece like everyone else. He could certainly be packaged in deals if they net this team more than he's worth as an eventual unsigned FA.[/quote']

 

^ This

[bsox0407]

I know this isn't popular to say after the missed catch in the NLDS, but I wouldn't mind getting Holliday.

 

Yeah, it could be argued against with strong conviction, i.e. "National League hitter", product of Coors Field for years, etc.

 

But Gammons was saying on WEEI in Boston this past week that Holliday said while with the A's in Fenway earlier in 2009, that he always wanted to be a Cardinal or Red Sox and just wants to play where baseball matters. He also took it like a man from what I heard in his postgame after the missed catch.

 

I am no Bay fan. So maybe I just am guilty of wanting to go with something different (like Holliday)... I also would love to see an Adrian Gonzalez deal, but that requires backing up the U-Haul.

 

As will a King Felix deal.

 

Wouldn't mind getting H.Matsui to DH, believe it or not, a pipedream.... but hey, he kills the Sox. I like him as a hitter. He needs to purely be a DH though, and we have Papi clogging that spot.

 

i think bay had a great year and the sox should re-sign him because his a really good hitter and knows how to play the wall. if we get holliday i really hope he doesn't turn into a lastings milledge. Matsui i would never want him on the sox.

King Felix will be hard to get through trading. the mariners are not stupiid about what they can get for him. lackey won't be a bad pick up if we can afford him.

[bostonule25]

He dissapeared during the summer

[BSN07]

Anyone think a Papelbon for Stephen Drew deal makes sense?

 

AZ gets a big name, probably could shop him at the TDL for a big haul.

 

Red Sox get a quality SS with some interesting intangibles.

 

Just a thought for discussion on this over reaction Monday:D

[Dojji]

Anyone think a Papelbon for Stephen Drew deal makes sense?

 

AZ gets a big name, probably could shop him at the TDL for a big haul.

 

Red Sox get a quality SS with some interesting intangibles.

 

Just a thought for discussion on this over reaction Monday:D

 

I think a deal for Stephen Drew makes some sense, but frankly I don't know if Arizona is willing to deal him for a relief pitcher, however talented. You know as well as I do that there's multiple schools of thought on whether a high priced relief pitcher is actually worth it to a midmarket team.

 

Add in the fact that the Dbacks aren't really in position to go for it now and I'd say the only way they deal for Papelbon is if they think they can stretch him out.

[BSN07]

I think a deal for Stephen Drew makes some sense, but frankly I don't know if Arizona is willing to deal him for a relief pitcher, however talented. You know as well as I do that there's multiple schools of thought on whether a high priced relief pitcher is actually worth it to a midmarket team.

 

Add in the fact that the Dbacks aren't really in position to go for it now and I'd say the only way they deal for Papelbon is if they think they can stretch him out.

 

I have heard and read Drew's name pop up in a few places. The Sox should really look in on him if it is true and he's available.

 

Yes I understand Papelbon might not be a fit(I saw it mentioned in conversations on other sites so I figured I'd bring it up for discussion here), but the Sox must match up somewhere. Drew although will surely cost something, should cost less then other SS's that are available. Leaving the team resources to fill other positions as well.

 

I think having the younger Drew join his older brother in Boston could have great effects on both players. Nothing like a little good old fashioned sibling rivalry to he push the Drew brothers along:D

[Dipre]

he tripled his walks and forgot how to throw his out pitch. My early reaction were reactionary. I'm fine if he is the closer next season' date=' but like ex1, if he won't sign an extension, he should be made available and traded if the package is right for the club.[/quote']

 

Save conversion rate, ERA,WHIP, K/9?

 

 

 

I could use your this argument against you for my Felix discussions,

 

Theo covets player- check

Theo has tried previously to acquire player- check

 

Real need- Uncheck.

 

There ya go.

[Dojji]

Assuming we get one of Bay and Holliday do we have a "real need" for Adrian Gonzalez?

 

Recognizing that there's a difference between "would represent a re-frickin-ridulous upgrade" and "real need" of course.

[superdeluxe]

Are the Red Sox still on the market for Felix?

[Dojji]

I'm not sure.

 

None of us would object to having him on the roster of course, but I think we all recognize that we wouldn't like the price tag.

[bostonule25]

Assuming we get one of Bay and Holliday do we have a "real need" for Adrian Gonzalez?

 

Recognizing that there's a difference between "would represent a re-frickin-ridulous upgrade" and "real need" of course.

 

Yes, we'd still have virtually the same offense that was blanked by the Angels staff he first 2 games with an even older Ortiz Lowell and Varitek

[Dojji]

I wouldn't read too much into a 3 game stretch even if those 3 games were the 2009 ALDS. This is also mostly the same offense that was pretty effective in the 2008 playoffs.

 

Adam LaRoche is a free agent, and so is Nick Johnson. both would replace the production we lost when Lowell started getting older. They're Type B as well according to Cot's so all they'd cost is money.

 

I'd look into "spending just money" on one of those two before I blew the farm on Adrian. But that's just me.

[Dipre]

Yes' date=' we'd still have virtually the same offense that was blanked by the Angels staff he first 2 games with an even older Ortiz Lowell and Varitek[/quote']

 

If we get AGon, we'd have to dump Lowell.

 

Your logic is correct though, but for Doiji, it's just "marginal gain"

[Dipre]

Adam LaRoche is a free agent' date=' and so is Nick Johnson. both would replace the production we lost when Lowell started getting older. He's a capable above average fielder and a competent 1B. I'd look into "spending just money" on one of those two before I blew the farm on Adrian. But that's just me.[/quote']

 

Oh.My.God.

[Dojji]

Oh.My.God.

 

You rang?

 

If I have to give up Buchhhoz or similar value in prospects to get Adrian Gonzalez, but can score Nick Johnson for just the price of the contract, the scales in my mind tip pretty heavily in favor of Johnson.

[Dipre]

You rang?

 

If I have to give up Buchhhoz or similar value in prospects to get Adrian Gonzalez, but can score Nick Johnson for just the price of the contract, the scales in my mind tip pretty heavily in favor of Johnson.

 

Lol ok.

[BSN07]

Save conversion rate, ERA,WHIP, K/9?

 

Listen I said trade Papelbon, but it's not with much conviction. I'm fine with him remaining the closer.

 

 

 

Real need- Uncheck.

 

There ya go.

 

I believe this is the point of the discussion where exp1 comes and and tells us the win share or VORP(can never remember which he prefers) difference between having Felix/Lowell/Youk over Agon/Youk/SP:D

[Dipre]

I believe this is the point of the discussion where exp1 comes and and tells us the win share or VORP(can never remember which he prefers) difference between having Felix/Lowell/Youk over Agon/Youk/SP:D

 

Yeah we really need to wait for e1.

 

I'm just too lazy to look it up myself.