5/19 vs. Kansas City Royals

[Jayhawk Bill]

Don't be fooled by the Kansas City Royals.

 

Pundits are jabbering excitedly about the new-look Royals, a team merely two games back of the division-leading White Sox in the AL Central. They speak of youth, excitement, and a belief on the bench that the team can win. After years of futility, Royals fans are enjoying the excitement of a pennant chase once again.

 

Of course, many teams' pennant chases have come to abrupt ends and tragic disrailments within view of the Green Monster. That may be about to happen again.

 

Consider this:

 

1) The 2008 Royals are 6-0 against the Detroit Tigers. That's well and good, but a whole bunch of teams beat up the Tigers pretty effectively this season. Beating the Tigers--especially in the first three games of this season--isn't a reliable measure of excellence.

 

2) The Royals are 7-2 in games Zack Greinke has started. Zack Greinke is a good guy, and he was a pitcher who seems finally to have channeled his flashes of potential into a significant streak of excellent games. Zack Greinke chalked up his fifth win yesterday as the Royals beat the Marlins 9-3. He will not pitch in this four-game series.

 

3) In games not started by Greinke and not versus the Detroit Tigers, the Kansas City Royals are 10-20, a .333 W/L Pct, a record that would leave them below the hapless San Diego Padres as the absolute worst team in Major League Baseball.

 

If that's not enough of an indictment of their talent, let's rub it in: these guys are chokers. Over the season thus far the team is batting .264/.321/.373, team stats that are 5th, 10th and 11th-best in the AL, respectively. With two outs and runners in scoring position, their team batting line is an anemic .220/.321/.274--yes, that's a .274 slugging percentage and an .054 isolated power. Even worse, in high-leverage situations* their batting line is .220/.272/.304: not only aren't they batting in runs, they're not even reaching base when it really matters. That's why the Royals are last--dead last--in run scoring in the American League.

 

For Boston, the toughest game of the four-game series comes tonight. Rookie Luke Hochevar is the Royals' second-best starting pitcher thus far in 2008. Despite getting just average defense behind him, Hochevar has posted an ERA below 4.00 for April and May, largely due to his getting ground balls 54.4% of the time. Hochevar is 3-2 despite getting a miniscule 2.09 supporting runs per 27 outs pitched. Greinke looks like a Cy Young candidate, but Hochevar looks very formidable himself.

 

Facing the Royals for Boston will be Jon Lester. While Lester's stats over the whole season look very similar to Hochevar's, they conceal the fact that Jon Lester has been very effective in his last four starts, allowing only a 2.13 ERA in 25.3 IP. Lester will have challenges tonight: the wind is blowing out and he's almost three times as home run-prone as Hochevar, and the Royals bat .285/.347/.403 as a team vs. left-handed pitchers. Still, with several Boston hitters coming off great games over the weekend, Lester will have every opportunity to earn a win for his team and Red Sox Nation tonight.

 

Game Time: 7:05 pm EDT Fenway Park

Current Weather: 57 degrees wind 20 mph blowing out

 

Royals pitcher:

Luke Hochevar

RHP

(3-2) 3.94 ERA

 

Red Sox pitcher:

Jon Lester

LHP

(2-2) 3.95 ERA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* High-leverage situations are those with a Win Probability Added of over 1.50, which are roughly the 20% most important plate appearances of the season.

[VA Sox Fan]

Royals

 

1. David DeJesus CF

2. Mark Grudzielanek 2B

3. Alex Gordon 3B

4. Jose Guillen DH

5. Billy Butler 1B

6. Miguel Olivo C

7. Mark Teahen RF

8. Esteban German LF

9. Tony Pena SS

-- Luke Hochevar P

 

Red Sox

 

1. Jacoby Ellsbury CF

2. Dustin Pedroia 2B

3. David Ortiz DH

4. Manny Ramirez LF

5. Mike Lowell 3B

6. Kevin Youkilis 1B

7. J.D Drew RF

8. Jason Varitek C

9. Julio Lugo SS

-- Jon Lester P

 

Go Jon! GO RED SOX!!

[VA Sox Fan]

Okajima says he's OK, available to pitch

 

Posted by Gordon Edes, Globe Staff May 19, 2008 04:27 PM

 

Hideki Okajima said his sore left wrist is fine and he's available to pitch. He's out on the field now testing the wrist; Terry Francona said he may not use Okajima depending on whether he feels the lefthander can spot his pitches after a four-day layoff. The guess here is the Sox will use Okajimai if the situation dictates it.

 

Royals cleanup hitter Jose Guillen -- Brendan Donnelly's best friend -- was just named AL Player of the Week after hitting .458 with 2 HRs and 13 RBIs. Don't look now, but the Royals have won six of their last seven, including a sweep of the reeling Tigers.

[das11209]

Okajima says he's OK' date=' available to pitch [/b']

 

Posted by Gordon Edes, Globe Staff May 19, 2008 04:27 PM

 

Hideki Okajima said his sore left wrist is fine and he's available to pitch. He's out on the field now testing the wrist; Terry Francona said he may not use Okajima depending on whether he feels the lefthander can spot his pitches after a four-day layoff. The guess here is the Sox will use Okajimai if the situation dictates it.

 

Royals cleanup hitter Jose Guillen -- Brendan Donnelly's best friend -- was just named AL Player of the Week after hitting .458 with 2 HRs and 13 RBIs. Don't look now, but the Royals have won six of their last seven, including a sweep of the reeling Tigers.

 

Back from Cleveland?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Gratuitous error on Lester's part, hurling the ball over to the stands to let the backup catcher advance to scoring position on two outs.

 

Did he really expect a steal?

[redsoxrules]

nice play by lugo

 

EDIT: and then follows it by throwing a s***** throw to first on the next play

[redsoxrules]

youk saved lugo of another error on that last out

[redsoxrules]

good call on the hit and run

[Youk Of The Nation]

First and third!

[TheKilo]

Nice baserunning by Drew.

[redsoxrules]

1-0 on lugo's double play

[redsoxrules]

******** strike call on that 2-1 pitch to ortiz

 

EDIT: he still gets the walk

[a700hitter]

The Lugo rally killer inning

[TheKilo]

Manny is having a real nice AB here.

[redsoxrules]

Great AB for manny 2-0 sox

[redsoxrules]

LOLOL M Grudzielanek at dropping the pop up. 4-0 sox

youk follows it with a double 5-0

[Youk Of The Nation]

Pretty good inning considering the third batter up hit into a double play.

[Youk Of The Nation]

8 pitch inning.

[ORS]

So, about Lester. This is a bit unexpected, but very nice.

[Cocos Disciples]

Good inning. I'm liking this team lately.

[ORS]

Freaky fast.

[TheKilo]

Lester has done a much better job of attacking the strike zone, really since the Toronto start.

[TheKilo]

lol Jeff Van Gundy

[ksushi]

So' date=' about Lester. This is a bit unexpected, but very nice.[/quote']

 

He's been very good lately. Even his rough start in Minnesota can be decieving if you just look at the line. The defense really let him down. He has been throwing the ball great for the last month or so.

[ksushi]

Lester is owning the strike zone right now. Did I really just get to say that? Keep it up, kid.

[soxfan17881]

If every game were like this, I could give up my Ativan.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Don't look now' date=' but the Royals have won six of their last seven, including a sweep of the reeling Tigers.[/i']

 

Hmmm...my assessment pre-game differed from Gordon Edes's.

 

So, about Lester. This is a bit unexpected...

 

Cheez, I pick up the low ERA in the last four starts and nobody listens? :dunno:

 

***

 

If the Red Sox are lucky enough to prevail tonight, no pre-game analysis tomorrow.

[ksushi]

It's ok Bill. I got it, and I'm the one who doesn't usually read. It's cool, baby, cool, to quote a hero of mine.

 

Lester is pretty cool right now. I wish I wasn't at work. I might leave early just to watch Lester if he is still cool in like the 7th inning.

[ORS]

No, tonight is not what's unexpected. It's the whole 5 game stretch. He woke up one morning about 3 weeks ago and could suddenly throw strikes at lot more frequently than before. I like it. I just hope it's something gained rather than an alignment of something cosmic.

[ORS]

And now he's blowing them away.