Johan Santana

[riverside sluggers]

double post

 

roto

Yahoo Sports! Tim Brown believes the Red Sox could acquire Johan Santana from the Twins for Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and another minor leaguer.

 

With Jed Lowrie as the other minor leaguer, that'd be Boston's reported initial trade proposal. We're guessing Jacoby Ellsbury is in the deal as presently constructed and Coco Crisp is out Otherwise, the Twins really, really like Lester. Definitely more than they do Phil Hughes.

 

EDIT: The Boston Globe is also saying that indications, mind you, are that it is the recently proposed deal of Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson. It is not yet confirmed, but a deal is within striking distance

 

The Yankees FO will have to change their ways if they think their harsh tactic including a laughable deadline for a trade in early december will get them what they want. A perfect Christmas gift for old Hank will be a muzzle.

[yankeessuck013]

According to an official of an American League team, the Boston Red Sox have made a significant increase in their proposal for Johan Santana, offering the Minnesota Twins pitcher Jon Lester, outfielders Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury and minor-league infielder Jed Lowrie. The official, who asked not to be named because he is not directly involved, said the Twins were going to sleep on it.

 

An official from a team that is involved in Santana talks said that late last night the Twins re-engaged the Red Sox in talks after reaching an impasse with the Yankees. Minnesota continued to ask for pitcher Ian Kennedy to be included along with outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Phil Hughes, and the Yankees held firm. That led to a re-opening of discussions with Boston, according to the official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the talks.

 

A Red Sox official, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak publicly, said the team has sent Lester's medical records to the Twins, a formality that may signal advancement in talks.

 

http://blog.nj.com/ledgeryankees/2007/12/overnight_yankees_update.html

 

doesn't really make sense to trade away both our CF's

[riverside sluggers]

obviously the New York Ledger isnt in the know or just did a typo

 

So far Tim Brown, Buster Olney and the Boston Globe are reporting that Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masteron is the reported deal

 

EDIT: With their deadline passing, the Yankees are turning their attention toward Dan Haren

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/12/04/2007-12-04_sources_yankees_passing_on_johan_santana.html

[arbitrary]

If Haren is so cheap why does Beane want to trade him now? Wouldn't it make more sense to get another year or two out of him and then trade him when he's closer to being a free agent?

 

It makes his trade value higher (costing less), but that makes his value to the A's higher as well. I don't see Haren being any easier to get than Santana. I can't see the A's being terribly eager to trade Haren (there could be something I'm missing) unless it's for a s*** load of young guys.

[yankeessuck013]

http://www.nydailynews.com/img/2007/12/04/gal_backpage_1204.jpg

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.bostondirtdogs.com/

 

"Epstein has been in phone contact with Twins GM Bill Smith, but I don't think they've had a face-to-face yet. Perhaps tonight. Sox have arranged for the Boston media to meet a little more formally with the Sox GM in about 90 minutes. Not expecting anything, but we'll keep you posted. Twins people, BTW, are very high on pitching prospect Justin Masterson, who they see possessing terrific setup potential." -- 4:49 p.m. update from Gordo in Nashville

[jacksonianmarch]

If Haren is so cheap why does Beane want to trade him now? Wouldn't it make more sense to get another year or two out of him and then trade him when he's closer to being a free agent?

 

It makes his trade value higher (costing less), but that makes his value to the A's higher as well. I don't see Haren being any easier to get than Santana. I can't see the A's being terribly eager to trade Haren (there could be something I'm missing) unless it's for a s*** load of young guys.

 

Beane doesnt need to deal him, but at the same time, there was a report a few weeks back essentially saying that Beane is ready to rebuild. He has a nice core of kids coming up, but by the time they establish themselves, guys like Haren and Blanton will be FAs. It is a timing issue. So instead of go through yrs of mediocrity, he'll take the Guardians approach and blow it up for close to MLB ready talent now. This way, all of his kids are around for the same period of time and by the 3rd or 4th season, he should have another solid club.

[jacksonianmarch]

And if we get Haren and you guys get Santana, it will absolutely be a win for you guys for now. But it depends on who goes which way IMO. For me, the only guy we should even consider offering Hughes for is Santana. If we can get Haren for Kennedy and a bunch of kids, then so be it. But I am still perplexed by the offers I am hearing.

 

The only conceivable offer that could possibly get Santana on the sox side includes Ellsbury and either Lester or Buchholz. If they wanted that much talent from the Yankees, that is the only conceivable way this gets done IMO. If the difference is a potential setup man in Masterson, then we have a couple who profile just a nice in the setup role or even closer role (Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Ross Ohlendorf). That shouldnt be the deal breaker or maker here. I just fail to see how a Hughes led package can be beaten by a backup CFer in Crisp and a back of the rotation starter in lester plus 2 kids. I just dont see it. And if that is the way the Twins want to do it, then I dont think we should dance that dance. You can have him, we'll figure something out.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.bostondirtdogs.com/

 

And who has been saying this the entire time? Masterson profiles as a solid setup man. And actually, I had a buddy of mine who just got his contract purchased who said the exact same thing. He did say that facing him was like putting your life on the line though, a 3/4 tilt on a 95mph sinking fastball does not sound like fun IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just read a Tim Brown piece from last night. We may not be dead yet. Apparently, the Twins relented on having Kennedy in the deal, but wanted both Alan Horne and AJax. That is one hell of a package and still too much. But I think a package of Hughes, Horne and Melky beats anything the sox throw their way short of a Buchholz Ellsbury duo.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

And if we get Haren and you guys get Santana, it will absolutely be a win for you guys for now. But it depends on who goes which way IMO. For me, the only guy we should even consider offering Hughes for is Santana. If we can get Haren for Kennedy and a bunch of kids, then so be it. But I am still perplexed by the offers I am hearing.

 

The only conceivable offer that could possibly get Santana on the sox side includes Ellsbury and either Lester or Buchholz. If they wanted that much talent from the Yankees, that is the only conceivable way this gets done IMO. If the difference is a potential setup man in Masterson, then we have a couple who profile just a nice in the setup role or even closer role (Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Ross Ohlendorf). That shouldnt be the deal breaker or maker here. I just fail to see how a Hughes led package can be beaten by a backup CFer in Crisp and a back of the rotation starter in lester plus 2 kids. I just dont see it. And if that is the way the Twins want to do it, then I dont think we should dance that dance. You can have him, we'll figure something out.

I think the rumors from last night into this morning about the Red Sox is a ploy by the Twins. It was similar rumors that got the Yankees to include Hughes in the first place. If its true congrats you can have him. I'm already tired of the Santana crap now. Like you said Jack, if we can get Haren for Kennedy and CO I think I'd prefer that right now instead of giving up Hughes in a Santana deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem being, I think the A's are more dangerous. They scout better. And while I dont think we answer any phone call from Oakland that includes Hughes, I have a feeling they will find 3 guys to package with Kennedy that will end up being very good. You see, we have eschelons to our system. At the top you have Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Montero. Those guys are either already established, or are cant miss talents. But a deal like Kennedy, Jackson, Betances or whatever can really come back to bite us. Because the A's are good at getting the guys before they get to the cusp, but they get guys who seem to always turn out barring injury. The only deal to this point that has sucked for them was the Hudson deal and that is only because the biggest piece (Meyer) had shoulder surgery and hasnt been the same since. I just dont want another Mulder deal, with an ace, setup man and future AS 1b going the other way for a half yr of production.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

The problem being' date=' I think the A's are more dangerous. They scout better. And while I dont think we answer any phone call from Oakland that includes Hughes, I have a feeling they will find 3 guys to package with Kennedy that will end up being very good. You see, we have eschelons to our system. At the top you have Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Montero. Those guys are either already established, or are cant miss talents. But a deal like Kennedy, Jackson, Betances or whatever can really come back to bite us. Because the A's are good at getting the guys before they get to the cusp, but they get guys who seem to always turn out barring injury. The only deal to this point that has sucked for them was the Hudson deal and that is only because the biggest piece (Meyer) had shoulder surgery and hasnt been the same since. I just dont want another Mulder deal, with an ace, setup man and future AS 1b going the other way for a half yr of production.[/quote']

I agree, Bean and his staff are not stupid. But I do hve faith in Cashman and I hope Hank stays out of it from here on out because his comments have not helped the situation with Santana.

[Mr Crunchy]

you need to be cautious with oakland pitchers

and if the yanks see santana go to the sox?

drooling george may put hank and hal in the boat with al neri out in taho

[VA Sox Fan]

you need to be cautious with oakland pitchers

and if the yanks see santana go to the sox?

drooling george may put hank and hal in the boat with al neri out in taho

 

LMAO!

[Mr Crunchy]

howdy miss lynda

 

did y'all enjoy your thanksgiving??

[He Hate Me]

Hats off to the Sox if they can get Johan.

 

Time to move on and go after another pitcher instead. the boat has sailed for me on this one.

[Mr Crunchy]

hhm

i dont think ny has closed the door on him

[mynameisryangomes]

hello fenway fags! johan is coming to the yankees! ryan talbot sound alikes!!!

 

 

 

yo you f*** with me?.......................r.i.p.

[Jayhawk Bill]

The only conceivable offer that could possibly get Santana on the sox side includes Ellsbury and either Lester or Buchholz. If they wanted that much talent from the Yankees' date=' that is the only conceivable way this gets done IMO. If the difference is a potential setup man in Masterson, then we have a couple who profile just a nice in the setup role or even closer role (Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Ross Ohlendorf). That shouldnt be the deal breaker or maker here. I just fail to see how a Hughes led package can be beaten by a backup CFer in Crisp and a back of the rotation starter in lester plus 2 kids. I just dont see it. And if that is the way the Twins want to do it, then I dont think we should dance that dance. You can have him, we'll figure something out.[/quote']

 

Masterson has the upside of a Derek Lowe or a Chien-Ming Wang; Lowrie could be a high-OBP shortstop. Both are very valuable commodities. Coco Crisp is a valuable player because of his defense more than his offense, and he's far from a "backup CF" in value. I personally expect Jon Lester to remain a fourth starter, but there's certainly upside, and he's a lefty, too, which many GMs covet. In total, I see the value of these four players as very fair for a one-year-from-free agency Johan Santana.

 

Masterson is a better prospect, IMO, than the four pitchers you name. Humberto Sanchez and Mark Melancon didn't even play in 2007, and it's not certain that they'll ever play effectively again. None of the four make the BP top 10 prospects, although they list Sanchez 11th on the hope that he'll return post-surgery, and they offer an honorable mention to Ohlendorf. Baseball America picked Melancon as the Yankees 9th-best prospect pre-season, but his arm trouble from college onward has to be considered. Still, these aren't great pitchers.

 

Masterson was, pre-season, rated among the Red Sox top pitching rospects by PECOTA, even though scouts weren't as high on him. Kevin Goldstein of BP ranks Masterson third-best in the Red Sox system right now, behind only Ellsbury and Buchholz. Remember that Masterson's stats were inflated by park effects at Lancaster and atrocious outfield defense at Portland. If you check his BIP data from AA, he's getting two-thirds ground balls and barely over 10% line drives--that's great pitching.

 

***

 

I think that Hughes is a valuable pitcher, a step above any of the four names I mentioned above for Boston. I value Melky Cabrera higher than most others here, too, so I understand your frustration. I think, though, that you may be underestimating the value of those supporting names in Boston's offer. An MLB team has 16 key players (nine starters, five starting pitchers, a closer and a set-up guy) on the 25-man roster, and Boston is offering an MLB-caliber CF, SS/2B and two starting pitchers for just one year of one pitcher. For a small-market team, those four cost-controlled players are exceptionally valuable, even if a large-market team might prefer to gamble on Hughes's health and Melky's developing power hitting with maturity.

[mynameisryangomes]

jayhawk bill, quite frankly, no one cares about your eight page essay.............

[He Hate Me]

Masterson has the upside of a Derek Lowe or a Chien-Ming Wang; Lowrie could be a high-OBP shortstop. Both are very valuable commodities. Coco Crisp is a valuable player because of his defense more than his offense, and he's far from a "backup CF" in value. I personally expect Jon Lester to remain a fourth starter, but there's certainly upside, and he's a lefty, too, which many GMs covet. In total, I see the value of these four players as very fair for a one-year-from-free agency Johan Santana.

 

Masterson is a better prospect, IMO, than the four pitchers you name. Humberto Sanchez and Mark Melancon didn't even play in 2007, and it's not certain that they'll ever play effectively again. None of the four make the BP top 10 prospects, although they list Sanchez 11th on the hope that he'll return post-surgery, and they offer an honorable mention to Ohlendorf. Baseball America picked Melancon as the Yankees 9th-best prospect pre-season, but his arm trouble from college onward has to be considered. Still, these aren't great pitchers.

 

Masterson was, pre-season, rated among the Red Sox top pitching rospects by PECOTA, even though scouts weren't as high on him. Kevin Goldstein of BP ranks Masterson third-best in the Red Sox system right now, behind only Ellsbury and Buchholz. Remember that Masterson's stats were inflated by park effects at Lancaster and atrocious outfield defense at Portland. If you check his BIP data from AA, he's getting two-thirds ground balls and barely over 10% line drives--that's great pitching.

 

***

 

I think that Hughes is a valuable pitcher, a step above any of the four names I mentioned above for Boston. I value Melky Cabrera higher than most others here, too, so I understand your frustration. I think, though, that you may be underestimating the value of those supporting names in Boston's offer. An MLB team has 16 key players (nine starters, five starting pitchers, a closer and a set-up guy) on the 25-man roster, and Boston is offering an MLB-caliber CF, SS/2B and two starting pitchers for just one year of one pitcher. For a small-market team, those four cost-controlled players are exceptionally valuable, even if a large-market team might prefer to gamble on Hughes's health and Melky's developing power hitting with maturity.

 

Well I care about your 8 page essay

 

I share Jack's frustrations. I'm still having memories of the D-Backs asking for Soriano and Nick Johnson but then taking Jorge whatever and Brandon Lyon instead.

 

I understand your point about the 4 cost controlled players, but Melky, Hughes, and another prospect would have been 3 cost controlled guys. Melky is someone with a great future and Phil has more upside than anyone in the Boston package. Small or big market, the Yankees have a better package, not that Boston's isn't fair, I just don't believe that it is better than what the Yankees are offering.

 

Put it this way, I think we can all agree on Crisp + Lester as not being as good as Melky + Hughes. Whatever the peripheral prospects are, and if the Twins are basing their decision on the 3rd or 4th guys in a package, then that's their perrogative. I don't think it's good baseball decision making, but whatever, I'm sure they know better than me.

 

But anyway, like I said yesterday, this ship has sailed. If the Twins are willing to take a lesser package from the WS champions for whatever reason, then fine, it is what it is. The Yanks need to just move on at this point.

[soxfan17881]

http://philsox.spieles.com/images/jsantana_soxcap.jpg

I hope Theo knows what he's doing.

Let's get this thing done.

[He Hate Me]

As a follow up...I find it highly amusing that the Twins ask for Kenedy as the third player and then feel that Masterson/Bowden + Lowrie is equivalent to that LOL

[jacksonianmarch]

Masterson has the upside of a Derek Lowe or a Chien-Ming Wang; Lowrie could be a high-OBP shortstop. Both are very valuable commodities. Coco Crisp is a valuable player because of his defense more than his offense, and he's far from a "backup CF" in value. I personally expect Jon Lester to remain a fourth starter, but there's certainly upside, and he's a lefty, too, which many GMs covet. In total, I see the value of these four players as very fair for a one-year-from-free agency Johan Santana.

 

Masterson is a better prospect, IMO, than the four pitchers you name. Humberto Sanchez and Mark Melancon didn't even play in 2007, and it's not certain that they'll ever play effectively again. None of the four make the BP top 10 prospects, although they list Sanchez 11th on the hope that he'll return post-surgery, and they offer an honorable mention to Ohlendorf. Baseball America picked Melancon as the Yankees 9th-best prospect pre-season, but his arm trouble from college onward has to be considered. Still, these aren't great pitchers.

 

Masterson was, pre-season, rated among the Red Sox top pitching rospects by PECOTA, even though scouts weren't as high on him. Kevin Goldstein of BP ranks Masterson third-best in the Red Sox system right now, behind only Ellsbury and Buchholz. Remember that Masterson's stats were inflated by park effects at Lancaster and atrocious outfield defense at Portland. If you check his BIP data from AA, he's getting two-thirds ground balls and barely over 10% line drives--that's great pitching.

 

***

 

I think that Hughes is a valuable pitcher, a step above any of the four names I mentioned above for Boston. I value Melky Cabrera higher than most others here, too, so I understand your frustration. I think, though, that you may be underestimating the value of those supporting names in Boston's offer. An MLB team has 16 key players (nine starters, five starting pitchers, a closer and a set-up guy) on the 25-man roster, and Boston is offering an MLB-caliber CF, SS/2B and two starting pitchers for just one year of one pitcher. For a small-market team, those four cost-controlled players are exceptionally valuable, even if a large-market team might prefer to gamble on Hughes's health and Melky's developing power hitting with maturity.

 

 

There is a difference between upside and likelihood. Masterson may have the upside of a Lowe or a Wang. But his sinker isnt on Wang's level and his secondary stuff isnt up to Lowe or Webb's. And in the article, it says that the Twins are looking at him as a setup man. Hence, a setup man. That would be like me saying that Kennedy's upside is Maddux. Just because they have similar styles does not mean that is what they will be. That being said, if you are talking solely about setting up, which is what the Twins seem to be looking at, I think we can match him. And yes, while Melancon and Sanchez were TJ recipients the past season, that shouldnt be too much of a detractor since the surgery has such a high success rate. Either way, we dont need to dispute Masterson's worth as I think he is a solid pitcher, but he is in AA and is a questionable starting prospect at best. Is this really the guy to go ga ga over in this deal? IMO, he could be had in a side deal for a reliever, he doesnt need to be the sleeper need in the deal.

 

The lefty thing with Lester is something that cannot be overlooked. But his projectability seems in serious question. For 2 seasons in the majors and throughout his minor league career, he has never kept guys off the bases enough on a consistent basis to be a top tier starter. I remember Gammons a few yrs back saying that he would take Lester over Hughes every day of the week. Homerism at its best as Lester is either a shell of his former self or was a product of hype. He is kinda like a Chase Wright with a better curveball. And in terms of lefties, even if they deal Santana, the Twins will still have one in Liriano. But if you want to take the lefty angle, then you have an argument that cannot be rebuked.

 

In terms of Lowrie, my position on his inclusion is more the fact that the sox kinda need to deal him. As much as the sox spin machine tries, it wont spin Lowrie into being a SS of the future. He played 2b in college, has a slower first step and projects to be a 2b again. And with the ROY in place at 2b, where are the sox going to put him. In terms of jockeying for positioning here, the Twins should be insisting on his inclusion as a default. he wont be a deal breaker on the sox side. At the same time, though, he projects as a .280 something hitter, 10-15 homer kind of guy. Not the kind of guy you go outta your way to deal for, but a nice inclusion nonetheless.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well I care about your 8 page essay

 

I share Jack's frustrations. I'm still having memories of the D-Backs asking for Soriano and Nick Johnson but then taking Jorge whatever and Brandon Lyon instead.

 

I understand your point about the 4 cost controlled players, but Melky, Hughes, and another prospect would have been 3 cost controlled guys. Melky is someone with a great future and Phil has more upside than anyone in the Boston package. Small or big market, the Yankees have a better package, not that Boston's isn't fair, I just don't believe that it is better than what the Yankees are offering.

 

Put it this way, I think we can all agree on Crisp + Lester as not being as good as Melky + Hughes. Whatever the peripheral prospects are, and if the Twins are basing their decision on the 3rd or 4th guys in a package, then that's their perrogative. I don't think it's good baseball decision making, but whatever, I'm sure they know better than me.

 

But anyway, like I said yesterday, this ship has sailed. If the Twins are willing to take a lesser package from the WS champions for whatever reason, then fine, it is what it is. The Yanks need to just move on at this point.

 

I agree. Time to move on. I'd tell the twins that the package stands at Hughes, Melky and a middle tier prospect like a Marquez. If they come back with hughes, melky and horne, you take it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just heard it on ESPNEWS. Deal seems imminent, does not include Buchholz or Ellsbury. I mean, what the f***?

[He Hate Me]

BTW, I cannot believe that given the choice, the Twins would rather have Lester over Ellsbury. Why would you rather have a guy who seems to have control issues over a guy who looks like Grady Sizemore (granted I've only seen him play like 6 or 7 times, but his numbers are awesome)

[He Hate Me]

Just heard it on ESPNEWS. Deal seems imminent' date=' does not include Buchholz or Ellsbury. I mean, what the f***?[/quote']

 

So they basically feel that Lester is better than Kennedy and on par with Hughes??? I know he's a lefty but exactly what has he done that justifies that school of thought?

[rician blast]

So they basically feel that Lester is better than Kennedy and on par with Hughes??? I know he's a lefty but exactly what has he done that justifies that school of thought?

 

 

What have Hughes and Kennedy done that refutes that school of thought?