Johan Santana

[He Hate Me]

What have Hughes and Kennedy done that refutes that school of thought?

 

So you think Hughes=Lester?

[jacksonianmarch]

both absolutely dominated the minor leagues to a tune of WHIPs at or below 1 and K/9 > 9. Both came up to the majors and in their short spans still has better numbers than Lester even though Hughes had a spell where he was terrible and Kennedy pulled a back muscle. Lester has a WHIP in his 2 MLB seasons of 1.5, that is absolutely terrible for a guy who doesnt have dominant stuff.

[BSN07]

They probably like Hughes over Lester. But Considering there depth in young pitching the must value the rest of Bostons package more then the Yanks offer.

[He Hate Me]

They probably like Hughes over Lester. But Considering there depth in young pitching the must value the rest of Bostons package more then the Yanks offer.

 

Boston's package includes either Matseron or Bowden, the Twins apparently decided that's equal to Kennedy.

 

I don't understand the logic.

[jacksonianmarch]

They probably like Hughes over Lester. But Considering there depth in young pitching the must value the rest of Bostons package more then the Yanks offer.

 

That young pitching depth was predicated on having solid pitching at the top. With the exodus of Garza and Santana, their depth will be seriously tested. You have Liriano and Slowey. lester will be in the rotation. After that, it is a crap shoot. Baker? Probably

[jacksonianmarch]

Boston's package includes either Matseron or Bowden, the Twins apparently decided that's equal to Kennedy.

 

I don't understand the logic.

 

I'd break it down like this...

 

Hughes- Lester

Melky- Crisp

XXX- Lowrie and Masterson

 

IMO, Hughes is significantly better than Lester both in projection and currently

IMO, Melky is currently marginally better than Crisp, but his projection is significantly better, plus he is much cheaper

 

That leaves the last 2, IMO. Either the sox consider lester to be better than Hughes, or they are so convinced that Lowrie and Masterson are must haves that logic escapes them. If you put Horne in the discussion as the third guy, then you cancel out Masterson. That leaves Lowrie as the deciding factor. if that is truly the case and Lowrie was the must have in this deal, I think the twins could easily have gotten him with a smaller fish than santana.

[BSN07]

Hughes>Lester

Cabrera, mid levelt prospect

 

 

 

this is pretty much what it comes down to...

[He Hate Me]

I'd break it down like this...

 

Hughes- Lester

Melky- Crisp

XXX- Lowrie and Masterson

 

IMO, Hughes is significantly better than Lester both in projection and currently

IMO, Melky is currently marginally better than Crisp, but his projection is significantly better, plus he is much cheaper

 

That leaves the last 2, IMO. Either the sox consider lester to be better than Hughes, or they are so convinced that Lowrie and Masterson are must haves that logic escapes them. If you put Horne in the discussion as the third guy, then you cancel out Masterson. That leaves Lowrie as the deciding factor. if that is truly the case and Lowrie was the must have in this deal, I think the twins could easily have gotten him with a smaller fish than santana.

 

I was just aobut to say the same thing about Lowrie being the difference

 

But you know what, I'll give the Twins scouting dept some credit. I mean they got Liriano + Nathan from the Giants for AJ and Liriano's numbers at the time were not blowing anyone away. Maybe they see the same potential in Masterson or Bowden. I don't think it's there, but I will give them some dose of cred. Then again, it's a new GM

[jacksonianmarch]

Hughes>Lester

Cabrera, mid levelt prospect

 

 

 

this is pretty much what it comes down to...

 

that is true, but it can be broken down further. You remember, HS algebra? Its broken down, but not all the way. You can do better than that!

[VA Sox Fan]

howdy miss lynda

 

did y'all enjoy your thanksgiving??

 

Yes we did Seano. Hope you and yours had a nice one!

 

This Santana stuff is surprising me as much as the Dice-K sweeps. Not giving up Ellsbury would be sweet. Hate to see Lester go.

[rician blast]

So you think Hughes=Lester?

 

No. Personally I think Hughes has greater upside.

 

Assuming the recent rumors are true, then apparently the Twins do not see enough of an upgrade in Hughes (despite his enormous minor league success) over Lester (11-2 in his MLB career) to be inclined to move in the direction of the Yankees offer.

[jacksonianmarch]

I was just aobut to say the same thing about Lowrie being the difference

 

But you know what, I'll give the Twins scouting dept some credit. I mean they got Liriano + Nathan from the Giants for AJ and Liriano's numbers at the time were not blowing anyone away. Maybe they see the same potential in Masterson or Bowden. I don't think it's there, but I will give them some dose of cred. Then again, it's a new GM

 

Liriano was thrown in because his arm was falling off. But that point aside, that was more Terry Ryan vs idiot SF GM (Sabean) than anything else. This time, he is dealing with two good GMs who wont get boondoggled. And he is dealing a player he kinda has to deal and has a limited number of suitors.

[He Hate Me]

Hughes>Lester

Cabrera, mid levelt prospect

 

 

 

this is pretty much what it comes down to...

 

isn't the whole point of trading for Johan is because of the importance of a #1 guy?

 

If there are two packages and the best player with the best upsdie is in one package and the peripheral components are not that much different, wouldn't you always take the best player package?

[jacksonianmarch]

No. Personally I think Hughes has greater upside.

 

Assuming the recent rumors are true, then apparently the Twins do not see enough of an upgrade in Hughes (despite his enormous minor league success) over Lester (11-2 in his MLB career) to be inclined to move in the direction of the Yankees offer.

 

Put that 11-2 in context.

 

11-2 4.68ERA 144IP 152H 110K 74BB ---- 9.5H/9IP 4.6BB/9IP 6.9K/9IP 1.57WHIP

 

Those numbers are absolutely god awful.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the twins are more interested in restocking their positional depth with mediocrity than having another ace with poor players around him. So instead of having those "little piranhas" as Guillen talked about, they would rather than MLB average to above average players (Crisp, likely Lowrie) around an average to above average rotation. Sounds like that'll sit them squarely in the 3 hole in the division for yrs to come.

[BSN07]

Hughes

Lester

Melky

Coco

W unknown Yankee prospect

XYZ Bowden/Masterson, Lowrie

 

 

H>L

M>C

W

 

XYZ value over W is more then H>L+M>C

 

 

 

Hahahahahaha:thumbsup:

[TheKilo]

Boston's package includes either Matseron or Bowden, the Twins apparently decided that's equal to Kennedy.

 

I don't understand the logic.

 

You don't see where a guy the Twins have said has the potential to be an elite set up man (Masterson) is better than a guy who's ceiling is a 3 or 4 starter?

[jacksonianmarch]

first of all, it isnt XYZ for you guys, it is X and Y. The X could be two variables, but both wont be included.

 

That being said, lets assume the deal is Horne for us and Masterson for you guys.

 

Hughes >> Lester

Melky > Crisp

Horne = Masterson

Nobody

[BSN07]

I guess the Twins are going with Quanity of Quality.

 

Bowden does have the ceiling of a 1 or 2. Lester is a 3 with a ceiling of a 2( small chance of a 1), Masterson could be a SP or shutdown set up man. Lowrie is going to be a solid 2B/SS. If this is what Minny is seiing in there projections of these players the its not hard t see why they like the deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

You don't see where a guy the Twins have said has the potential to be an elite set up man (Masterson) is better than a guy who's ceiling is a 3 or 4 starter?

 

ceiling for a AA player vs a player who rocketed through the minors and is currently in the majors leagues. And BTW, nowadays, a solid middle rotation starter is more valuable than a setup man. A solid #3 pitcher who can keep their ERA around 4 will make 10-15 mil a season.

[Paradisecity]

Is Melky a better player for the twins than Coco?

 

Where the twins play, speed and defense are more valuable than average and power. I know Melky plays good D and can run, but I think Coco's CF makes him just as valuable if not more, to the Twins organization.

 

Personally, I am not a Coco guy and I love Ellsbury so if this deal gets done with Coco and Lester and without Ellsbury I'll be excited.

[BSN07]

Nice Jacko, havent been in school for a long time, algebra is not there in the memory anymore LOL

[TheKilo]

ceiling for a AA player vs a player who rocketed through the minors and is currently in the majors leagues. And BTW' date=' nowadays, a solid middle rotation starter is more valuable than a setup man. A solid #3 pitcher who can keep their ERA around 4 will make 10-15 mil a season.[/quote']

 

Yes, but the Twins explicitly said they loved Masterson as a prospect. Did they do the same for Kennedy?

 

And if HankHal wanted those comparisons, Kennedy would be in the deal.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Put that 11-2 in context.

 

11-2 4.68ERA 144IP 152H 110K 74BB ---- 9.5H/9IP 4.6BB/9IP 6.9K/9IP 1.57WHIP

 

Those numbers are absolutely god awful.

 

Nothing Gawd-awful about winning 11 out of 13 decisions, especially considering that his 2006 stats were messed up a bit by trying to pitch through a bout of cancer.

 

You might toss in the sub-2.00 ERA in Boston's 2007 postseason, including the win in the deciding game of the World Series. That gives Lester a 12-2 record...pretty good for a kid.

 

***

 

I understand your frustration. Again, Masterson and Lowrie are the 3/4 prospects in Boston's system: I understand Minnesota's thought process, just as I understand your frustration that Hughes/Cabrera plus a lower prospect wasn't good enough. IMO, Hughes and Cabrera were the two best players under discussion, and Minnesota chose numbers over magnitude of talent.

[TheKilo]

Is Melky a better player for the twins than Coco?

 

Where the twins play, speed and defense are more valuable than average and power. I know Melky plays good D and can run, but I think Coco's CF makes him just as valuable if not more, to the Twins organization.

 

Personally, I am not a Coco guy and I love Ellsbury so if this deal gets done with Coco and Lester and without Ellsbury I'll be excited.

 

This is a good point. With Cuddyer and Young patrolling the corners they need a plus CF with great range.

 

Coco fits the bill...does Melky?

[rician blast]

Put that 11-2 in context.

 

11-2 4.68ERA 144IP 152H 110K 74BB ---- 9.5H/9IP 4.6BB/9IP 6.9K/9IP 1.57WHIP

 

Those numbers are absolutely god awful.[/QUote]

 

True, they are not very good numbers.

 

But if he's such a downgrade, how can the Twins make this deal? And no, I am not biting on the "Lowrie was the must have."

 

You have to be missing something, Jacks. Perhaps they're impressed with the kid's balls, ability to come back from adversity, etc. Don't know, but I am of the mind that the Twins at least "think" they know what they are doing based upon some cedible analysis.

 

Wouldn't be great if a to the Sox deal gets done and later we find out that Hank the Skank blew the Yanks potential deal with his big mouth?

[das11209]

After all the statistics lessions from JB and example1 - now we start Algebra class in this thread?

[He Hate Me]

I guess the Twins are going with Quanity of Quality.

 

Bowden does have the ceiling of a 1 or 2. Lester is a 3 with a ceiling of a 2( small chance of a 1), Masterson could be a SP or shutdown set up man. Lowrie is going to be a solid 2B/SS. If this is what Minny is seiing in there projections of these players the its not hard t see why they like the deal.

 

oh I don't doubt that they see those projections. I just don't know why

 

BTW Bowden's name was mentioned but most reports has it now as Masterson.

[jacksonianmarch]

I understand your frustration. Again, Masterson and Lowrie are the 3/4 prospects in Boston's system: I understand Minnesota's thought process, just as I understand your frustration that Hughes/Cabrera plus a lower prospect wasn't good enough. IMO, Hughes and Cabrera were the two best players under discussion, and Minnesota chose numbers over magnitude of talent.

 

Which is EXACTLY what the DBacks did when they dealt you guys Schill. I find the package the sox are offering to have equal ability to be nothing more than mediocre than they do of being above average.

[TheKilo]

Which is EXACTLY what the DBacks did when they dealt you guys Schill. I find the package the sox are offering to have equal ability to be nothing more than mediocre than they do of being above average.

 

Conspiracy?

 

IMO, the Twins are basically regarding the Yankees offer as a lottery ticket. Sure, Hughes could be an ace and Cabrera could be an All-Star (lol) but it seems the Sox offer (a) helps them more right now and ( is a bit safer.