Johan Santana

[riverside sluggers]

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Twins will want Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson in a package for Johan Santana.

 

That's not such a ridiculous demand. The Yankees have to know they're not getting Santana without giving up one of their three young studs, and the Twins likely will demand Hughes over Ian Kennday. Cabrera isn't the young offensive star the Twins would like, but he will be a solid regular for five years. Jackson improved tremendously in the second half of last season and has the tools to keep it up, but he's still only played like a top prospect for three months. It's still a high price to pay, but it's doubtful Santana can be had for much less.

 

Id be surprised if the Yankees were to balk at this.

[BSN07]

If they get Johan, then I think we need to go after Haren hard...

[BoSox21]

I'm surprised the Twins wouldn't demand more than that. At the very least, Cano over Cabrera

[a700hitter]

Id be surprised if the Yankees were to balk at this.

I'd be surprised if the Red Sox couldn't top it.

[BSN07]

I'd be surprised if the Red Sox couldn't top it.

 

I'd rather they not top it and try and get Haren for less...

[a700hitter]

I'd rather they not top it and try and get Haren for less...

...and if the A's price for Haren might go up after Santana is off the market, or even worse would be if the A's took Haren off the market after the Yankees get Santana.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I'd rather they not top it and try and get Haren for less...

 

...or stay with the excellent talent base that the Red Sox already have.

 

Austin Jackson is a product of speed and high BABIP who might or might not translate to MLB, but Hughes and Melky Cabrera are, together, probably more valuable than Johan Santana. Santana is an exceptional pitcher, but there are limits to his value.

[BSN07]

...or stay with the excellent talent base that the Red Sox already have.

 

Austin Jackson is a product of speed and high BABIP who might or might not translate to MLB, but Hughes and Melky Cabrera are, together, probably more valuable than Johan Santana. Santana is an exceptional pitcher, but there are limits to his value.

 

I know what you mean. Keeping what we have isn't a bad idea either. A rotation of Beckett, Dice-k, Schilling, Lester, Wake is not too bad at all. Buccholz wil be waiting in the wings and ready to come up around mid season. I think he could be our 5th SP, he most def has the stuff. I'm not sureif he can pitch a full season tho. I'm not sure what his inning total was this yr but I believe I read that the FO wanted it around 150 IP this yr and 175 IP next year.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I have a hard time thinking teams like the Mets or Dodgers would look at that deal and not try to top it. Both teams have the money for Santana and he would dominate in the NL. The Twins have to do better than Hughes and Cabrera basically. Hell don't you think Jon Lester and Coco Crisp is close to the same....I'm sure we could top Austin Jackson with say...Justin Masterson.

 

Hughes, Cabrera, Austin Jackson

 

Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson

 

....I think thats a starting point from the Twins perspective and see who outbids that price.

[ksushi]

Ellsbury, Lowrie, Kalish and Masterson. They're going to be putting a lot of value in position prospects at or near major league level, they have a vacancy at CF in 2B that they're going to want to fill with Johan Santana's return.

 

I'd hate to part with Ellsbury but his value is sky high with world series, and Coco and Ellsbury will most likely give more or less equal returns or at least Ellsbury won't be so much better it would be worth keeping him rather than exploiting his inflated value due to his role in our WS. If we could get Santana we would win in '08 and have the best chance in '09 without a doubt. We have to wait and see what happens in the Mitchell report before this thing really moves. As a venezualan native, he's seen his countrymen be accountable for 40-something% of steroid busts and his visa will be on the line if he is in the report. I think anyone inquiring on Cabrera and Santana or anyone who will cost that much talent will wait and see what those names are first.

[schillingouttheks]

So, that would give us an '08 rotation of:

 

Beckett

Santana

Matsuzaka

Schilling

Buchholz/Lester

 

Holy s***.

[Jayhawk Bill]

He does sit in the 92-94 MPH range. I never said he was hitting 96 did I?? A few points this season he was sitting in the 90-92 MPH range. That is still effective but you need to look past what he has done and look toward what he will do. What happens when he does loose that velocity??

 

Before the season, Johan Santana was considered to be a 94 mph fastball pitcher.

 

http://feeds.foxsports.com/mlb/playerScouting?categoryId=85229

 

His last game of the season, Santana fastest pitch was 92.1 mph. His fastball was, as you post, in the 90-92 range.

 

http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2007/month_09/day_26/gid_2007_09_26_minmlb_detmlb_1/inning/

 

He has seemed to lose about two miles per hour off his fastball through the course of 2007. It might be back next spring, but there is some evidence for a slight loss of velocity.

[example1]

I know what you mean. Keeping what we have isn't a bad idea either. A rotation of Beckett' date=' Dice-k, Schilling, Lester, Wake is not too bad at all. Buccholz wil be waiting in the wings and ready to come up around mid season. I think he could be our 5th SP, he most def has the stuff. I'm not sureif he can pitch a full season tho. I'm not sure what his inning total was this yr but I believe I read that the FO wanted it around 150 IP this yr and 175 IP next year.[/quote']

 

I find it inconceivable that Buchholz won't pitch for the Sox for the majority of next year. I'd rather they go with a hybrid-six-man rotation than let him throw another 10K game in the minors.

[schillingouttheks]

I find it inconceivable that Buchholz won't pitch for the Sox for the majority of next year. I'd rather they go with a hybrid-six-man rotation than let him throw another 10K game in the minors.

 

Wouldn't you think that if you have the arsenal that Buchholz has, and pitched a damn no-hitter in your second career MLB start, you'd be in the starting rotation for next season? I do. The only reason Buchholz, to me, shouldn't be in the rotation next season is if he's shipped to Minnesota for Santana.

[example1]

Wouldn't you think that if you have the arsenal that Buchholz has' date=' and pitched a damn no-hitter in your second career MLB start, you'd be in the starting rotation for next season? I do. The only reason Buchholz, to me, shouldn't be in the rotation next season is if he's shipped to Minnesota for Santana.[/quote']

 

Agreed 100%. Just unsure what their approach will be, with Schilling's semi-unexpected return, Wakefield, Beckett, DiceK and Lester all penciled in. I really think a flexible 6-man rotation would be ideal, as it would set them up for a long season and a stronger playoff push.

 

Buchholz has unbelievable stuff. FWIW, his no-hitter is available for like $3 at iTunes. If you have an iPod it's a good game to be able to re-watch for signs of things to come (in terms of performance, not no-hitter expectations).

[TheKilo]

Wouldn't you think that if you have the arsenal that Buchholz has' date=' and pitched a damn no-hitter in your second career MLB start, you'd be in the starting rotation for next season? I do. The only reason Buchholz, to me, shouldn't be in the rotation next season is if he's shipped to Minnesota for Santana.[/quote']

 

Or the fact they want to limit his innings. You know, something like that never happens.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think they want to do what we wanted to do with Hughes last yr. Bring him up midseason when there is a need. I guarantee you that one of your pitchers will either be injured for a long duration or be very ineffective and need replacement. It happens every yr and with 2 40 something pitchers, a Japanese guy who faded down the stretch and another kid in the rotation, that is a very real possibility that one person doesnt live up to the hype. This is why I think Buchholz finishes the yr as one of your top 3 starters and will go from there.

 

The point is, you have 5 options at the MLB level right now. Let them sort out and bring Buch in when you have more info.

[BSN07]

Wouldn't you think that if you have the arsenal that Buchholz has' date=' and pitched a damn no-hitter in your second career MLB start, you'd be in the starting rotation[/b'] for next season? I do. The only reason Buchholz, to me, shouldn't be in the rotation next season is if he's shipped to Minnesota for Santana.

 

You could say that about the PO roster as well. But the Sox showed the commitment to bringing Buccholz along at a slow pace and not taking a isk with his arm for short term success. If the 5 Pitchers mentioned before are ready to go coming out of ST, Buccholz will be in the minors.

[ksushi]

I think Buchholz is much more likely to make the rotation at the start of next year than he ever was to be on the post season roster. That was up in the air all along. Maybe among most fans, after seeing the no-hitter, it seemed like a no-brainer but I think the FO figured all along that his innings total would surpass what they were comfortable affording him before the end of september. There was some dissappointment there, but not really surprise and it was only really dissappointing because we all wanted to see him shown off a little more and get to see him throw.

 

He has great poise and great stuff and can definitely help the major league team right off the bat next year. I don't see why they would keep him down. Unless a major trade happens to acquire a starter without giving up one of Buchholz or Lester, I expect Wake to be in the 'pen especially if Dougie isn't back and our rotation will probably look something like this: Beckett, Dice, Schill, Lester, and Buchholz.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the opposite Ksush. If the sox shorten Buch's innings early, they will avoid the abuse that Francona will put on his arm. It is kinda funny how the sox have a manager who will go to the pen after it is apparent that a guy is done, and the old yankee manager went to the pen at the first sign of trouble. Either way, Buch should see no more than 5 innings for the first 2 months, then should be fresh enough to throw a solid # of innings for Boston as the finish line comes about. To be honest with you, this is what we should do with Joba if we have that luxury.

[ksushi]

If he is going to build up his stamina he might as well do it in a major league rotation. Francona will have specific instructions on how to handle him (read: how to not burn him out) and when september rolls around we'll see how he holds up. Remember, we need him to be our fifth starter, if he can pitch in the playoffs and we can flip flop him with Lester if Lester is struggling, gravy. But really, all we need is for him to adjustment year in the majors and get some innings under his belt.

[das11209]

Another slow newsday and it will be till the GM meeting. The off-season is too long and too cold and too boring.

 

Looking forward to spring training already.

[TheKilo]

If he is going to build up his stamina he might as well do it in a major league rotation. Francona will have specific instructions on how to handle him (read: how to not burn him out) and when september rolls around we'll see how he holds up. Remember' date=' we need him to be our fifth starter, if he can pitch in the playoffs and we can flip flop him with Lester if Lester is struggling, gravy. But really, all we need is for him to adjustment year in the majors and get some innings under his belt.[/quote']

 

I'm sorry, but that is, in a word, dumb.

 

How many innings can people count on from Buchholz next season? He threw 148 innings this season. Let's be generous and assume he can handle a 20% increase in innings...that puts him at 177.6 innings. We want to waste these innings in April when we have other reliable options rather than keep the guy fresh for the stretch run?

[MANNYHOF24]

I'm sorry, but that is, in a word, dumb.

 

How many innings can people count on from Buchholz next season? He threw 148 innings this season. Let's be generous and assume he can handle a 20% increase in innings...that puts him at 177.6 innings. We want to waste these innings in April when we have other reliable options rather than keep the guy fresh for the stretch run?

 

Nope, which is why ,unless there is an injury, Buchholz is starting the year in AAA.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Wait, then what's he going to be doing in AAA for the first month or two? Nothing? Having irregular start patterns and once he reaches the majors then he will have to adjust to the riggor of the 5 man?

[LUGOforMVP]

I don't see the Twins trading Santana to the Red Sox or Yankees. They will want to trade him to the NL, IMHO.

 

Yes, I'm a Dodger fan, but I do believe that they can beat any offer that the Red Sox can make. Matt Kemp can play that CF spot, and if they need a pitcher, LA has several (Billingsley and Kershaw come to mind).

 

If Santana is available, the Dodgers will probably be favorites to get him.

[das11209]

I don't see the Twins trading Santana to the Red Sox or Yankees. They will want to trade him to the NL, IMHO.

 

Yes, I'm a Dodger fan, but I do believe that they can beat any offer that the Red Sox can make. Matt Kemp can play that CF spot, and if they need a pitcher, LA has several (Billingsley and Kershaw come to mind).

 

If Santana is available, the Dodgers will probably be favorites to get him.

 

Like they were the fav to get A-Rod that you kept reminding us? Only thing the Dodgers got so far is Joe Torre and his washed up platoon.

[Gom]

I'd do Clay Buchholz' date=' Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie if Santana were amenable to signing for 4/5 years.[/quote']

We'd do Hughes, Cabrera, and a bar of soap. It's about the same offer.

 

No way Santana moves unless its prime time, it seems like.

[YAZMAN]

We'd do Hughes' date=' Cabrera, and a bar of soap. It's about the same offer.[/quote']

 

Except Lowrie doesn't come on a rope.

[ksushi]

I'm sorry, but that is, in a word, dumb.

 

How many innings can people count on from Buchholz next season? He threw 148 innings this season. Let's be generous and assume he can handle a 20% increase in innings...that puts him at 177.6 innings. We want to waste these innings in April when we have other reliable options rather than keep the guy fresh for the stretch run?

 

Dumb? He's our fifth starter. It's reasonable to assume DiceK will improve on his 07 showing, Schilling has every incentive to not show up as out of shape as last year and even if he needs time off, it will come before september. That gives us two solid arms to feel good about behind Beckett come october. I don't think we need to bank on Buchholz being there in the end. They could handle him like they did Lester in 06. Strict pitch count, short innings etc. But, personally, I'd rather not have him wasting pitches at AAA when hes proven he can compete up here. I think at some point you have to turn a young arm loose and stop coddling. Thats this year for me with Buchholz.

 

I don't think its unreasonable to assume a 20% increase