Johan Santana

[scaffolds]

scaff' date=' therein lies the problem. The sox have 2 entrenched, young power arms who are going nowhere (as in nobody is dealing them) in Beckett and DMats. The rest, who knows. Buchholz is the big chip. You dont have a trio of top prospects like we do, you have a great pitching prospect then a huge dropoff. So you cannot expect to make a deal for Santana without him being included. At the same time, you put Santana/Beckett/DMats together for the next 5 or so yrs and you have a 3 headed monster like nobody has seen since the late 90s yankees (Clemens, Pettitte, Duque/Cone)[/quote']

 

Jackson; I disagree with you on this one, a package of Cirsp or Ellsbury, Youkilis, Lester and Bowden or Masterson not only its a better package than what the Yankees my be able to put, but one that the Twins have a better use.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Jackson; I disagree with you on this one' date=' a package of Cirsp or Ellsbury, Youkilis, Lester and Bowden or Masterson not only its a better package than what the Yankees my be able to put, but one that the Twins have a better use.[/quote']

 

I suspect that it would take less than what you're suggesting to land Santana.

 

What I'm reading is this:

 

1) The Twins recognize Coco Crisp's defensive ability and appreciate that he's cost-controlled for three years. Crisp could be the centerpiece of a package for Santana.

 

2) The Twins want two "elite prospects" as well as an established MLB player, but they're flexible regarding the level of the prospect: they'll take a guy as low as Single A.

 

3) The Twins are wanting hitting, not pitching.

 

4) There's still the previous rumor that Minnesota wants an additional MLB-proven name.

 

5) The Twins need a CF, a DH, and 2B/3B. They're interested in Tony Clark at 2/4 to fill their DH spot. They could also use a starting pitcher right now, regardless of the depth of talent in their system.

 

These rumors could be met by this package:

 

Coco Crisp

Alex Cora

Lars Anderson

Oscar Tejada

 

I suspect, however, that the Yankees would outbid Boston were that the package.

 

Let's work this back to the Coco Crisp-Jon Lester plus two scenario postulated in the Herald. Now we're looking at those two plus two from this list:

 

Alex Cora (MLB-proven; fits the Twins' style of play; can play 2B/SS/3B; only costs $2.15 million)

 

Jed Lowrie (not MLB-proven; excellent OBP potential; can play 2B/SS and has started at 3B; three pre-arb years remaining)

 

Lars Anderson (elite first base prospect, projected to be ready in 2010 when he's 22; .343/.489/.486 at A+ this year)

 

Oscar Tejada (elite shortstop prospect; roughly .295/.345/.395 in Rookie and A- combined this year at only 17 years old; plus defender; probably not ready until 2011-2012 at age 20 or 21)

 

From what I'm reading, the Crisp and Lester plus two others scenario might work out. Minnesota would win big: for one year of Santana, they'd get three years of better-than-average CF along with three other VERY valuable players (especially if they took Anderson and Tejada). To match this, the Yankees would have to part with Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, and two of their very best prospects, and they can't afford to lose Melky the way Boston can lose Crisp.

 

That would get Johan Santana to Boston and keep both Ellsbury and Buchholz. To me, it seems possible; YMMV.

[DUSTINMOHR4LIFE]

If there are 4 players in the deal, and one of them is not Ellsbury or Buchholz, I can't see the Twins taking Cora instead of Tejada, Anderson or Lowrie. I would be ecstactic if they did, but I just don't think that the Twins would do it.

[RobZombie]

The Twins aren't trading Santana unless they get either Clay or Jacoby in return, end of story.

 

Secondly, Gammons made a good point about Santana when he was on the radio last week. Santanna is not going to accept a discount, which means he's going to want $20-$25M a year. If you do that, you may have to redo Beckett's contract to the same amount. Tieing up $45-$50M a year in two players, never mind pitchers, is something that the Red Sox aren't going to do.

 

Gammons thought that Santana to MFY for Cabrerra, Hughes, and Tabata made more sense because they don't have a comparable player to Beckett. He thought the MFY could just sign Hunter to play CF, but obviously now they aren't going to do that. They could sign Jones to play CF.

[TheKilo]

******** that Crisp held the fort for most of the postseason.

 

6 for 33 (.182 avg) Double, 2 RBIs, 3 Runs, Walk, 9 Ks, 2 SBs

 

If the Sox are making personnel decisions based off these small sample sizes....well wait. They wouldn't. Because they know what they're doing.

[.406]

Took me a while, but I finally have some sort of thought on this possibility of this deal. Santana to the Sox?

[Jayhawk Bill]

If there are 4 players in the deal' date=' and one of them is not Ellsbury or Buchholz, I can't see the Twins taking Cora instead of Tejada, Anderson or Lowrie. I would be ecstactic if they did, but I just don't think that the Twins would do it.[/quote']

 

Same here...but Minnesota has to field a competitive team on a slim payroll, and I'm reading that they may want to try to plug every hole for 2008 with this one trade. I'll be honest: I'm not reading the name "Alex Cora" elsewhere, but he's the name that seems to fit the Twins' current needs and the rumors I'm getting from the media.

 

Alex Cora is an excellent future managerial candidate, a guy who does everything right, sets a great example, and who can help younger players do things better. Dustin Pedroia was outspoken in his praise of Cora when he won the Rookie of the Year.

 

The Twins aren't trading Santana unless they get either Clay or Jacoby in return, end of story.

 

I'd understand your trying to close debate if you'd found a quote from Minnesota's Front Office to that effect.

 

Given that you haven't, and that the foundation for my analysis regarding Crisp plus Lester plus two others is a published Boston Herald article (previously linked), I don't see any immediate reason to cease considering my posts as reasonable. I'll certainly agree that Boston might give either Buchholz or Ellsbury to Minnesota for Santana. I wouldn't support either move, though, unless it were Ellsbury and little else of value for a seven-year commitment from Santana.

 

Secondly, Gammons made a good point about Santana when he was on the radio last week. Santanna is not going to accept a discount, which means he's going to want $20-$25M a year. If you do that, you may have to redo Beckett's contract to the same amount. Tieing up $45-$50M a year in two players, never mind pitchers, is something that the Red Sox aren't going to do.

 

The latest benchmark contract for a pitcher is Barry Zito's 7/126. Santana's agent has apparently indicated that he'd take that.

 

Here's a posted quote of the Gammons reference you're citing:

 

“Even with a new ballpark (set to open in 2009), I don’t see them being able to keep him because it’s going to take $25 million and he’s not going to sign before he tests the market a year from now. So, I think you go out there and try to get a young pitcher and two position players…I understand (the idea of keeping him, and trading him at next year’s deadline), but history has shown that trade-deadline deals have not brought as much as winter deals, which is why I think they have to explore it now…The question is going to be, does anybody have two players to trade to get him. I can see Anaheim, I can see the Dodgers, but I’m not sure I see other teams having enough to get him.”

 

http://www.metsblog.com/2007/11/02/quote-gammons-on-johan-santanas-future/

 

This doesn't make sense. One year of Johan Santana at final-year arb rates isn't worth anything like a young pitcher and two position players. No other MLB pitcher has commanded anything approaching $25 million per annum in a guaranteed multi-year deal--that's because GMs know that pitchers are more fragile than position players.* Trade deadline deals often bring MORE than winter deals, because contending teams are desperate for a particular player and it's a seller's market.

 

Peter Gammons made his reputation when I was young through having the best connections and doing the best research. In recent years he's taken to pontificating without regard for the possibility of harming his reputation were he proven wrong, maybe because he's already enshrined in Cooperstown. He's not citing sources here, and his opinions seem badly out of line with current player values. In any case, I disagree with Gammons here.

 

Regarding the "need" to pay Beckett more if Santana were to be paid more...I don't think so. That's why they call it a "contract."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Top pitcher salaries, source USA Today:

 

Bartolo Colon $16,000,000

Andy Pettitte $16,000,000

Jason Schmidt $15,703,946

Mike Hampton $14,500,000

Pedro Martinez $14,002,234

 

Roger Clemens was paid at a rate of about $25,000,000 per complete season in 2007, but the contract was only for roughly two-thirds of the season. Multi-year deals are different, because the team accepts (or insures for) the risk of players' performances declining due to injury, lifestyle or aging in the later years.

[scaffolds]

I suspect that it would take less than what you're suggesting to land Santana.

 

What I'm reading is this:

 

1) The Twins recognize Coco Crisp's defensive ability and appreciate that he's cost-controlled for three years. Crisp could be the centerpiece of a package for Santana.

 

2) The Twins want two "elite prospects" as well as an established MLB player, but they're flexible regarding the level of the prospect: they'll take a guy as low as Single A.

 

3) The Twins are wanting hitting, not pitching.

 

4) There's still the previous rumor that Minnesota wants an additional MLB-proven name.

 

5) The Twins need a CF, a DH, and 2B/3B. They're interested in Tony Clark at 2/4 to fill their DH spot. They could also use a starting pitcher right now, regardless of the depth of talent in their system.

 

These rumors could be met by this package:

 

Coco Crisp

Alex Cora

Lars Anderson

Oscar Tejada

 

I suspect, however, that the Yankees would outbid Boston were that the package.

 

Let's work this back to the Coco Crisp-Jon Lester plus two scenario postulated in the Herald. Now we're looking at those two plus two from this list:

 

Alex Cora (MLB-proven; fits the Twins' style of play; can play 2B/SS/3B; only costs $2.15 million)

 

Jed Lowrie (not MLB-proven; excellent OBP potential; can play 2B/SS and has started at 3B; three pre-arb years remaining)

 

Lars Anderson (elite first base prospect, projected to be ready in 2010 when he's 22; .343/.489/.486 at A+ this year)

 

Oscar Tejada (elite shortstop prospect; roughly .295/.345/.395 in Rookie and A- combined this year at only 17 years old; plus defender; probably not ready until 2011-2012 at age 20 or 21)

 

From what I'm reading, the Crisp and Lester plus two others scenario might work out. Minnesota would win big: for one year of Santana, they'd get three years of better-than-average CF along with three other VERY valuable players (especially if they took Anderson and Tejada). To match this, the Yankees would have to part with Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, and two of their very best prospects, and they can't afford to lose Melky the way Boston can lose Crisp.

 

That would get Johan Santana to Boston and keep both Ellsbury and Buchholz. To me, it seems possible; YMMV.

 

 

I couldn't disagree more, Cora doesn't have any value to the Twins, Anderson and Tejeda are very good prospects, but they are too far from the ML for the Twins like, they want ML players or players who will ML ready very soon.

[example1]

JHB, I understand why people are critical of your proposal. It's funny how it takes months and months to convince people that Buchholz and Ellsbury are any good (this time last year you would have been accused of trusting 'unproven' talent when you wouldn't trade both for Dontrelle Willis ), and suddenly they are SO good that no other combination of prospects could possibly come close to either of them.

 

The Twins are likely looking at this situation licking their chops at the number of 2nd tier (see: younger) prospects they could get from teams, as a 'make it happen' throw-in for Santana. I initially proposed:

 

Lester, Kalish and Bowden or Masterson

 

but I think you're right that they're looking for batting talent. s***, replace Kalish with Crisp, and offer Crisp and Lester (and Cora, why not?) with a choice of Anderson, Bowden, Kalish, Tejada, Moss, Lowrie, or Cora. Lester is still a very nice prospect. He's had some growing pains (literally) but he has really handled it nicely, and he's a hard-throwing strikeout lefty. He's 24.

 

My guess is that, unlike many here, the Red Sox would be weary about just throwing names into a deal for Santana. As you pointed out, injuries are a huge risk, he's not signed long term and when he is it will be at 20m on, if not the down-side of his career, at least the apex of his career. The Sox will look at guys like Bowden not as 2007 Bowden, or 2007 Anderson, but 2010 Bowden and 2010 Anderson, and the 2010 Red Sox.

 

The hopeful thing for me is that I think a deal can get done without Buchholz or Ellsbury. I think that Crisp is the right substitute for Ellsbury if MN really wants a CF and the Sox won't part with Jacoby, and that the farm system is deep enough to absorb some loss for the greater (GREATER!!) good of the team.

 

A 2009 rotation of

 

Beckett

Santana

Dice-K

Buchholz

Wakefield

 

would be absurd (assuming that Wake can make it that long)... he's replaceable anyway. If it can be done then couldn't that border on the greatest pitching staff of all time? In terms of power arms I would be willing to bet it would be.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I couldn't disagree more' date=' Cora doesn't have any value to the Twins, Anderson and Tejeda are very good prospects, but they are too far from the ML for the Twins like, they want ML players or players who will ML ready very soon.[/quote']

 

Thanks for your response!

 

Alex Cora has been posted, AFAIK, by nobody else on the Internet except for me as a possible part of the trade. I just keep seeing him as the guy with the characteristics of the unnamed MLB player who keeps coming up in the discussions. He would certainly add value to Minnesota, a team very weak in the infield excepting first base.

 

Regarding the suggestion of Class-A talent, I'll offer this quote:

 

The thing to remember in dealing with the Twins, however, is that they might not always be after the prospects everybody knows about. The Twins pride themselves on being able to identify and acquire big-time prospects at the Class A level. Players who have come to the Twins' system at the A-ball level over the years include Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford and Joe Mays, as well as Johan Santana himself and a skinny little hitter whose name at the time was David Arias but later changed his last name to Ortiz and went on to achieve some measure of fame with the Boston Red Sox.

 

Earlier this year, when the Mets and Twins were talking trade for Luis Castillo, we were trying to figure out who the Mets might have to give up. We were thinking of usual suspects like Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber, but the Twins ended up dealing Castillo for AA catcher Drew Butera and Class A outfielder Dustin Martin. These were guys I didn't know much about, but I'm not going to be surprised if Dustin Martin ends up being a good big-leaguer someday. The Twins' scouts can spot talent when it's very young. So there may be some players in the Yankees' system (and in those of other interested teams) that the Twins would like and we don't even know about yet.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/graziano-on-a-y.html

 

I'm new here, but you obviously know a lot about Boston's MiLB system. I don't dispute that your difference with some of my thoughts reflects best conventional wisdom: please understand that I'm disagreeing based upon research, not mere fantasy, and that I understand that Minnesota might end up going for MLB/AAA-level talent if they trade Santana.

[BSN07]

 

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/graziano-on-a-y.html

 

 

J, never use MLBTRADERUMORS as a credited source here, people will read it and stop reading your post immediately.

 

The only thing its good for is rounding up a few decent reporters colums and putting them on one site so I don't have to search for them all.

 

The other stuff he writes and his so called contacts I give no credit, and neither does anyone else...

 

 

As far as Graziano goes, well I doubt hes much more then his Papers version of Dan Shaunessey or Bob Ryan or Jackie Mcmullen who knew Dice-K was going to LAA last yr after the bids where placed an the announcement was pending, Faces who think they know but have no clue...

[Jayhawk Bill]

J, never use MLBTRADERUMORS as a credited source here, people will read it and stop reading your post immediately.

 

The only thing its good for is rounding up a few decent reporters colums and putting them on one site so I don't have to search for them all.

 

The other stuff he writes and his so called contacts I give no credit, and neither does anyone else...

 

As far as Graziano goes, well I doubt hes much more then his Papers version of Dan Shaunessey or Bob Ryan or Jackie Mcmullen who knew Dice-K was going to LAA last yr after the bids where placed an the announcement was pending, Faces who think they know but have no clue...

 

Do you know Graziano? Have you read his work? :dunno:

 

I've read him occasionally. He's average, IMO--but he makes a good point regarding the Twins and their history of surprising folks by going for lower-level, higher-upside prospects. That's an impressive list quoted previously. Most systems deal mostly in MLB-ready prospects. Minnesota has shown a tendency to do otherwise in the past decade.

 

***

 

bosoxnation07, while I appreciate your advice, look at how the post used the quote. While respectfully disagreeing with another poster, I pointed out that his blanket statement of how the world worked wasn't universally shared.

 

If this forum universally accepts blanket statements by established posters as trumping documented patterns of behavior described by published authors in the field--regardless of where they are quoted--then there's little merit to continuing to search for discussion. If the forum has difficulty accepting MLB Trade Rumors on-site rumors as gospel, I certainly understand--but also understand that in this case I'm merely taking past tendencies cited there into consideration, and that the core of my position (Crisp+Lester+two) was from the Boston Herald.

 

As an aside, if you want to offer constructive advice in the future, please PM me. It's too easy to misconstrue your approach here as a public insult.

[example1]

That is an excellent point about MN's tendencies in trades, because it is true. In the moneyball type approach, MN is viewing A-level prospects who are presently 20-22 years old as an undervalued asset, particularly with teams who are close to competing. A team like the Red Sox would (rightly, I think) give up a number of promising young prospects in order to solidify the current MLB club for 5-7 years. MN could ultimately structure it so they come out on top in the long run, while their trading partner appears to have 'won' the deal initially.

[scaffolds]

Thanks for your response!

 

Alex Cora has been posted, AFAIK, by nobody else on the Internet except for me as a possible part of the trade. I just keep seeing him as the guy with the characteristics of the unnamed MLB player who keeps coming up in the discussions. He would certainly add value to Minnesota, a team very weak in the infield excepting first base.

 

Regarding the suggestion of Class-A talent, I'll offer this quote:

 

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/graziano-on-a-y.html

 

I'm new here, but you obviously know a lot about Boston's MiLB system. I don't dispute that your difference with some of my thoughts reflects best conventional wisdom: please understand that I'm disagreeing based upon research, not mere fantasy, and that I understand that Minnesota might end up going for MLB/AAA-level talent if they trade Santana.

 

 

I don't have an issue if you have a different view, however my point isn't from newspaper people, but people that i have talk to, in regards to Cora his value is to a team like the Red Sox as spare part, not to a team that is regrouping like the Twins.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Something I just realized:

 

Today's NY Times featured an article regarding the Mitchell Report and how players determined to have lied about past PED use could be denied visas.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/sports/baseball/25chass.html?ei=5088&en=e7ede9320f535c0d&ex=1353646800&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

 

While everybody immediately associates the Dominican Republic with steroids, the biggest issue may be with Venezuela:

 

The number of Venezuelans on major-league 40-man rosters has increased 72 percent since 1999 to 43 this past year, raising fears some are importing a longstanding use of drugs and even passing them on to teammates.

 

...

 

Venezuelans accounted for 13 of the 34 positive drug tests throughout baseball in 2006, the most of any country.

 

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2003404352_steroids12.html

 

This doesn't mean that every player from Venezuela used steroids: one might look for players whose performance suddenly surged in the middle of their pro careers for the biggest suspects. Players don't normally go from, say, unprotected Rule 5 draft picks to Cy Young Award winners.

 

***

 

It's certainly far less than proof...but the timing of Santana's availability and the upcoming release of the Mitchell Report may not be entirely coincidental.

[jacksonianmarch]

Personally, I dont care if Santana has a steroid shake for breakfast, a testosterone burger with a side of winstril for lunch and a filet of roid for dinner with a nice cold lager of HGH. If the guy comes in and wins 20 games for the next 6 yrs, I can deal with the cheating.

[TheKilo]

Personally' date=' I dont care if Santana has a steroid shake for breakfast, a testosterone burger with a side of winstril for lunch and a filet of roid for dinner with a nice cold lager of HGH. If the guy comes in and wins 20 games for the next 6 yrs, I can deal with the cheating.[/quote']

 

Not surprising seeing as you have cheered a team with Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield on it for years.

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1046677

 

I hope Steve Buckley of the Herald is just doing a rant, and not actually serious that Pedroia could be part of a Santana package

[Jayhawk Bill]

Personally' date=' I dont care if Santana has a steroid shake for breakfast, a testosterone burger with a side of winstril for lunch and a filet of roid for dinner with a nice cold lager of HGH. If the guy comes in and wins 20 games for the next 6 yrs, I can deal with the cheating.[/quote']

 

How would you feel if Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain played for the Twins for the next six years while Johan Santana coached and scouted the Venezuelan Summer League for the Yankees because he couldn't get a visa to return to the US to play for the Yankees? :dunno:

 

Again, I reiterate that there's no proof here, but it's interesting that so many Venezuelans apparently used steroids (legal in Venezuela), that Santana himself had an unusual performance spike, that there's an article stating that foreign baseball players who have lied about steroid use might be denied visas, and that there's an apparent rush to trade away one of the premier pitchers in MLB.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

How would you feel if Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain played for the Twins for the next six years while Johan Santana coached and scouted the Venezuelan Summer League for the Yankees because he couldn't get a visa to return to the US to play for the Yankees? :dunno:

 

Again, I reiterate that there's no proof here, but it's interesting that so many Venezuelans apparently used steroids (legal in Venezuela), that Santana himself had an unusual performance spike, that there's an article stating that foreign baseball players who have lied about steroid use might be denied visas, and that there's an apparent rush to trade away one of the premier pitchers in MLB.

 

This could be a reach but maybe not. There is a rush to move him based on the fact they can't sign him. It's not like the Twins didn't try to keep him so if thats the case I can't forsee anything occurring in the background like illegal steroid usage.....then again it could be true.

 

It was interesting to see Santana's fastball drop in velocity for part of the season. It could be the injury he dealt with or something else but thats what worries me. If Santana looses the velocity on his fastball then his change won't be as effective and suddenly his ERA is more in the 3.5-4 range. He really is a 2-pitch pitcher with an average slider. I don't know how well Santana would do having to reinvent himself. If a transition like that is approaching I'm scared to trade away decent players and sign him to a 25 million a year deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not surprising seeing as you have cheered a team with Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield on it for years.

 

and you most certainly have rooted for a roided up player as well. It is pervasive throughout.

[jacksonianmarch]

This could be a reach but maybe not. There is a rush to move him based on the fact they can't sign him. It's not like the Twins didn't try to keep him so if thats the case I can't forsee anything occurring in the background like illegal steroid usage.....then again it could be true.

 

It was interesting to see Santana's fastball drop in velocity for part of the season. It could be the injury he dealt with or something else but thats what worries me. If Santana looses the velocity on his fastball then his change won't be as effective and suddenly his ERA is more in the 3.5-4 range. He really is a 2-pitch pitcher with an average slider. I don't know how well Santana would do having to reinvent himself. If a transition like that is approaching I'm scared to trade away decent players and sign him to a 25 million a year deal.

 

 

are you serious with this post? Santana sat right where he always does. People think he is a 97mph fastball guy who just blows people away. He isnt. He sits 92-94 and tops out around 96 with a devastating change and a plus slider. His fastball velocity is right where it always was.

[BSN07]

J I would never insult you, but your lucky I got there 1st, because there are some people on herewho will rip you a new one for using mlbtraderumors.com.

 

As far as Graziano goes, they all think there in the know, in the loop and they all think they know what there repective teams FO is doing, but none of these guys hae a clue. Most of them are just making up trades that would make sense for both sides but never really get done. The only time any of them get it right, is when the deal is already complete and its eaked right before its announced and they run tolet the world know so they look good and act like they knew it was coming all along.

 

 

Basically if its not coming fom the FO directly, then anything written about trades or any such moves I classify as rumor/hot stove talk. These people are sooooo wrong sometimes its hard to take them seriously. There job is to get to read and buy there papers, they want interesting, which is what they provide.

[BSN07]

This whole steroid thing is retarded, I know that at some point I cheered for someone on roids, maybe I am now. I don't care really, its a game and ment to be entertaining, im getting tired of this crap. If there so worried about the records then you need to divide basbeall up by era,

 

1. Hot Dog and beer era.(1940's and before)

2. Post WW2 era( 1940'-1960's)

3.Pre FA era( 1960's-1980's)

 

 

4. FA/steroid era( 1980- present) As soon as players are allowed to change teams for bigger money then this is when the steroid era begins. This where performance really =$.

 

There now everything is covered,

 

and another thing to chew on is, Take the guys from the beer and hot dog era, (Ruth prime example) and compare them to the lets say pre FA era. Pre FA guys at that time where just getting into weight training, healthy life styles, ect. whos to say those guys aren't enhancing there performance. It may not be steroids but they are def better off physically then the guys in the hot dog and beer era.

 

Each era ive made up, the physical status of the players is far greater then the era before. So really the numbers of a player today should never be compared to a player of the hot dog and beer era because the playes is physically inhanced just by eating right, not smoking cigars or drinking couple pitchers of brew after each game.

 

I know I have made this confusing but hopefully someone will see my point amongst all this mess...

[BSN07]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3125389&name=olney_buster&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3125389%26name%3dolney_buster

 

Olney makes a couple fair points in how hard it will be to trade Santana...

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

are you serious with this post? Santana sat right where he always does. People think he is a 97mph fastball guy who just blows people away. He isnt. He sits 92-94 and tops out around 96 with a devastating change and a plus slider. His fastball velocity is right where it always was.

 

He does sit in the 92-94 MPH range. I never said he was hitting 96 did I?? A few points this season he was sitting in the 90-92 MPH range. That is still effective but you need to look past what he has done and look toward what he will do. What happens when he does loose that velocity?? Suddenly the change is not as effective. His slider is not a pitch he can live off of so you saying its a plus pitch...I should ask are you serious? Have you ever watched him pitch? He lives off the fastball and changeup. If you are going to sign him for 6-7 years these are the things you need to consider. I'm making the case cause I knew another pitcher who lived off a fastball and changeup named Keith Foulke who was lights out and suddenly lost his velocity. Then he was completely ineffective.

 

I'm not trying to make a case for Keith Foulke being in the same category of Santana (thats just silly) but the issues are still there and if something were to go wrong with Santana (injury, loss of velocity, whatever) he does not have the variety to change his approach. So my question would remain, can this guy reinvent himself down the road if called upon? Maybe he can but its still an issue I'm positive the Red Sox front office is asking when contemplating the involvement of a Jacoby Ellsbury, Buchholz, or Jon Lester.

[jacksonianmarch]

He does sit in the 92-94 MPH range. I never said he was hitting 96 did I?? A few points this season he was sitting in the 90-92 MPH range. That is still effective but you need to look past what he has done and look toward what he will do. What happens when he does loose that velocity?? Suddenly the change is not as effective. His slider is not a pitch he can live off of so you saying its a plus pitch...I should ask are you serious? Have you ever watched him pitch? He lives off the fastball and changeup. If you are going to sign him for 6-7 years these are the things you need to consider. I'm making the case cause I knew another pitcher who lived off a fastball and changeup named Keith Foulke who was lights out and suddenly lost his velocity. Then he was completely ineffective.

 

I'm not trying to make a case for Keith Foulke being in the same category of Santana (thats just silly) but the issues are still there and if something were to go wrong with Santana (injury, loss of velocity, whatever) he does not have the variety to change his approach. So my question would remain, can this guy reinvent himself down the road if called upon? Maybe he can but its still an issue I'm positive the Red Sox front office is asking when contemplating the involvement of a Jacoby Ellsbury, Buchholz, or Jon Lester.

 

 

he absolutely was not "sitting" 90 mph this yr. That is totally bogus.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

he absolutely was not "sitting" 90 mph this yr. That is totally bogus.

 

What is bogus is you making any claims to have any valid information on Johan Santana. You don't watch him pitch so you have no clue what you are talking about. Making a statement like he has a plus-slider. It is not a great pitch and you are a fool to think otherwise. He lives off 2 pitches that he throws with deadly control and great deception.

 

"sitting" 90 mph this yr

 

I want you to read this sentence very closely so you don't have another brain fart....

 

He was sitting in the 90-92 range for "part of the season."

 

Not "this year" as you put it. Now not every pitcher comes into every game with there best stuff and Santana has the control to battle through it. But what happens when his range drops to 90-92 or below 90 permanently which is likely to happen sometime within a 6-7 year deal. He will not be as effective. These are things you need to think about when deciding on making a big move which will play a part in your teams performance for years to come.

 

Or you could just be the Yankees and throw 305 million away on a player that won't win you anything.

[cam780]

The Red Sox and Yankees have similar talent in regards to MLB ready young talent. Chamberlain is the Yanks equivalent of Papelbon in different roles and both are untouchable. Hughes and Buchholz are similar as are Lester and Kennedy.

 

Both teams could pull the trigger on a Santana deal today if they were willing to part with some of that top end talent. I think the advantage the Red Sox have is the depth that they have in the second tier of players which does factor in when the Twins trade players and if the Sox include two, three, or four of those players that in turn would force the Yanks to include two of Hughes, Cano or Cabrera in the deal along with Kennedy especially given their greater need for a front line starter.

 

The wild card of course is what Buster Olney wrote that both of these teams can afford him once he hits free agency.

[a700hitter]

Is there a consensus out there that he has lost some velocity?