Johan Santana

[BoSox21]

just imagine...

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

Manny

Lowell

Drew

Youkilis

Tek

Lugo

 

Beckett

Santana

Matsuzaka

Schilling

Wakefield/Buchholz

 

ejaculate....

[jacksonianmarch]

prospectus put out their yankee list of 4 star prospects.

 

Jackson, Tabata, Horne and Kennedy are all 4 star prospects and happen to be the four being discussed in this deal.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester, and Justin Masterson

 

....they may be the front runners but who the hell knows. This doesn't seem like enough but who knows the truth.

[das11209]

I think Red Sox are still missing one big bat - specially if Manny leaves.

 

Do you guys remember how much we wanted Dye at trade deadline to fill the void?

 

I was hoping Lowrie would be that power bat.

 

If this trade happens - Red Sox do take a huge risk by giving 4 for 1. If Santana looses velocity, has a tired arm or gets injured - that might swing the balance totally in the twins favor.

 

Also - anyone has a concern of Santana at Fenway stadium?

 

Just being Devil's advocate here ( or playing GOM).

[ORS]

prospectus put out their yankee list of 4 star prospects.

 

Jackson, Tabata, Horne and Kennedy are all 4 star prospects and happen to be the four being discussed in this deal.

Do you think it's enough?

 

EDIT: Better yet, since Melky is in the talks at some level as well, remove Jackson or Tabata (your choice) and insert Melky. Is that enough?

[rician blast]

I think Red Sox are still missing one big bat - specially if Manny leaves.

I was hoping Lowrie would be that power bat.

 

lowrie is not a power bat.

 

Also - anyone has a concern of Santana at Fenway stadium?

 

Nope. For one, if Fenway gives hitters an edge, don't BOTH offenses benefit? Secondly, IIRC, prior to Schilling coming to Boston, he had a concern, did some statistical research and found that Fenway was not the pitcher's enemy as many had thought previously.

[das11209]

 

Nope. For one, if Fenway gives hitters an edge, don't BOTH offenses benefit? Secondly, IIRC, prior to Schilling coming to Boston, he had a concern, did some statistical research and found that Fenway was not the pitcher's enemy as many had thought previously.

 

I was more worried for a left handed power pitcher with a green monster and Fenway left field. Sorry should have made it clear.

[TheKilo]

That offer is a BS offer IMO. The only way the sox put themselves ahead of the game is with the inclusion of Ellsbury or Buchholz. That is the only way they elevate their game above the pack and force us to add to the pot. Unless the yankees are totally committed to hanging onto the "big 3" and have no interest in dealing any of our higher level players, I call BS on their reported deal.

 

That being said, I wouldnt doubt if the sox became the frontrunners. But I'd expect either one or both of Buchholz and Ellsbury to be in the package. You arent getting Santana without one of them going the other way.

 

I'm pretty sure all indications are that the Yankees will not include Joba, so that's -1, and they're balking at Hughes.

 

If you think the deal gets done without Hughes or Joba YOU'RE crazy. I think the article should be taken with a grain of salt, especially since the reporter can't spell Lowrie right, but that offer is better than any the Yanks would w/o including Hughes or Joba.

 

Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson is better than Kennedy/Tabata/????/???

[jacksonianmarch]

Kennedy>Lester

Melky>Crisp

Tabata= to slightly

Horne>Masterson

[TheKilo]

Of course he is. The deal is about 25 cents on the dollar.

 

And it's better than the Yanks offer of pennies on the dollar.

 

Jacko, that deal fills positions of need with players who are very close to MLB ready. The Yanks could offer Tabata and other lower level prospects, but the risk for them is greater. Do they have upside? Sure. But the risk/reward may cause the Twins to take the Sox offer.

[TheKilo]

Kennedy>Lester

Melky>Crisp

Tabata= to slightly

Horne>Masterson

 

Explain plz.

[jacksonianmarch]

And it's better than the Yanks offer of pennies on the dollar.

 

Jacko, that deal fills positions of need with players who are very close to MLB ready. The Yanks could offer Tabata and other lower level prospects, but the risk for them is greater. Do they have upside? Sure. But the risk/reward may cause the Twins to take the Sox offer.

 

The point is that the other guys I have on my list are either in the MLB already or will be by the end of the season. The only guy on that list who is long range is Tabata, who just hit over .300 in High A as an 18 yr old. As far as long range, he'll be in the bigs before he can legally drink.

 

If we wanted to go lower levels, we could go lower levels. Our draft from a yr ago was money as were our DSL signees. Our draft from this yr may be better, who knows. The point being, that I understand that the Twins want players who will be in the bigs by 2009. An offer of Horne, Melky, Kennedy, and Tabata have 3 of those guys fitting criteria with Tabata on the outside, but not totally unplausible.

 

In terms of filling positions of need. Well, do they get a guy who is already producing at better than Crisp levels with the bat who is 23 and may end up being a solid CF for yrs to come, or do they settle on a stop gap like Crisp. I continue to hold that the only position we cant match on is the MIFer Lowrie. Then again, this isnt Hanley Ramirez part deux here. This is a limited ceiling, solid OBP player who could play a nice 2b. He isnt a deal winner IMO. But who knows. I have a feeling we get a better idea once the Winter Meetings start.

[TheKilo]

Melky Cabrera 2007:

 

.273/.327/.391

 

Coco Crisp 2007:

 

.268/.330/.382

 

Yeah, much better with the bat.

[ORS]

Melky Cabrera 2007:

 

.273/.327/.391

 

Coco Crisp 2007:

 

.268/.330/.382

 

Yeah, much better with the bat.

But, but, but, he was hitting .300 before he wasn't.

[Jayhawk Bill]

As promised, back to that issue of whether Johan Santana is likely to resemble Mike Mussina going forward in time.

 

It's hard gauging where Santana will end up, because his performance from ages 25-27 was so good. The 2007 PECOTA looked just three years back (if I understand the system correctly), looking only at those prime years, and it considered these pitchers the 20-best comparables to Santana:

 

Rank / Name / Comparable year to Santana's 2007 / Comparability Score

 

1 Sandy Koufax 1964 54

2 Tom Seaver 1973 50

3 Steve Carlton 1973 48

4 Mario Soto 1984 41

5 Camilo Pascual 1962 36

6 Roger Clemens 1990 36

7 Don Sutton 1973 35

8 Kevin Appier 1996 35

9 Fergie Jenkins 1971 35

10 Juan Marichal 1966 33

11 Jose Rijo 1993 32

12 Hal Newhouser 1949 31

13 Luis Tiant 1969 31

14 Carl Erskine 1955 30

15 Billy Pierce 1955 29

16 Floyd Bannister 1983 29

17 Jim Bunning 1960 28

18 David Cone 1991 28

19 Sam McDowell 1971 27

20 Javier Vazquez 2004 25

 

Wow. Now we have three Hall of Fame pitchers topping the list.

 

But we have concerns, too:

 

Koufax had only two MLB years left after 1964.

 

Soto had just one good season after 1984, if you can call a 12-15 record good.

 

Pascual had two more good seasons before his annual IP dropped by 100 per year (although the quality of those IP approached his previous value).

 

Clemens had only two good years left between 1990 and when he left the Red Sox in 1996, not long after meeting Jose Canseco and seeing his strikeout numbers begin to magically return to the levels of his halcyon youth.

 

Appier essentially lost three seasons to injury one year after 1996.

 

Rijo had 26 good starts left after 1993

 

Newhouser went downhill immediately after 1949.

 

El Tiante more than doubled his ERA from 1968 to 1969, and it took him two more years to resolve his injury issues and emerge as a great starter again in 1972.

 

Erskine wasn't that great to start with and he declined fast.

 

Bannister immediately spent five years as roughly a 4.00-ERA pitcher after 1983, whereupon he collapsed.

 

McDowell completely collapsed right after 1971.

 

Javier Vazquez had three years of oddly-inflated ERAs starting in 2004.

 

By my count, that's 12 concerns out of 20 comparables. The other eight pitchers stayed close to their established performance level for seven more years. Eight-twentieths is 40%, just a shade higher than the rough estimate I ran using Nate Silver's research a few posts back.

 

And that's using Santana's three best years to forecast his entire future. We don't yet have a PECOTA that considers his dip in 2007.

 

Using his whole career, he's comparable to a different level of pitcher, one of whom is Mike Mussina. Let's contrast Johan Santana and Mike Mussina's careers, side-by-side, through age 35, using WARP1:

 

Age	Santana	Mussina
21	1.3	
22	0.6	3.3
23	5.0	9.8
24	6.8	4.4
25	11.8	7.6
26	9.7	9.3
27	10.8	7.4
28	9.1	8.1
29	[b]9.7[/b]	8.2
30	[b]9.2[/b]	8.1
31	[b]8.8[/b]	8.9
32	[b]8.3[/b]	10.5
33	[b]7.9[/b]	8.0
34	[b]7.5[/b]	9.7
35	[b]7.1[/b]	4.8

 

Those numbers from Santana's future come from assigning Mussina's average value from ages 29-35 to Santana's age 32 and assigning a reasonable decline curve on either side.

 

This is what I see Johan Santana achieving if he remains injury-free. That's a 2008 season roughly as good as his 2005 season, and a slow decline from there. That's really good pitching. With Boston, that'll make Johan Santana a HOF candidate.

 

But not a lock.

 

***

 

In summary, I think that too many are projecting Johan Santana based upon his 2004-2006 stats. Using his whole career, I see him as slightly less valuable, but still a very good pitcher. I caution that, even using best-case comparables, most pitchers don't go seven years without serious injury.

[TheKilo]

Yank's Can't Let Sox Get Santana

 

No matter how many home runs Alex Rodriguez hits, no matter how many hitters Chamberlain freezes, no matter how many great years Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have left in them and no matter how much further Robby Cano, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy develop, the Yankees will never overcome a team on which Josh Beckett is the No. 2 starter.

 

Indications are the Yankees are thinking along the same lines. An organizational source told me yesterday they would now consider parting not just with Kennedy or Hughes, but Kennedy and Hughes plus Cabrera, if that's what it takes. In that case, the Yankees would pursue Rowand to replace him in center.

 

"With Hank in charge, the feeling is we've got to win now," the source said. "We've got to show our fans we're not waiting around, that we're committed to winning right away."

[Jayhawk Bill]

Yank's Can't Let Sox Get Santana

 

"With Hank in charge, the feeling is we've got to win now," the source said. "We've got to show our fans we're not waiting around, that we're committed to winning right away."

 

Some days back I posited that the Santana value would be roughly Crisp + Lester + two others, just as it's being reported this morning. That's maybe, possibly, a win for Boston, but it's close. It's certainly a win for the Twins, who get 20 years of talent for one year of Santana.

 

Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy???

 

If that trade is made, look for it to go down in history as the trade that doomed the Yankees.

[TheKilo]

prospectus put out their yankee list of 4 star prospects.

 

Jackson, Tabata, Horne and Kennedy are all 4 star prospects and happen to be the four being discussed in this deal.

 

I'd be interested in seeing how they rated Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury. I think at least the last two have the potential to be five star prospects.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kennedy>Lester.

 

Lester's career best WHIP was 1.15 in 2005 in AA. Other than that, he has been over 1.3 in his MiLB career. Over his major league career, he has made 25 starts, compiling a WHIP of 1.57 in that time. Over his MiLB career, he has compiled a WHIP of 1.31. Both are poor when considering the type of pitcher Lester is. I know a lot of people want to give him tons of credit in terms of his SR due to the cancer, and I love the guy for his determination, but lets be honest here. He's a high 80s-low 90s pitcher with shaky control. He allows a TON of baserunners and through nothing other than luck, he has avoided the major disaster. I expect his K rate to stay respectable, but if he continues to walk 4+ per 9IP, he will be burned.

 

Kennedy OTOH, is a full yr younger and doesnt have the health concerns that go along with Lester. He throws high 80s to low 90s, but is known as a total control freak. In his only minor league season, he walked 1 per 9 less than Lester did without giving up the hits that Lester did. Also, throughout all levels of the minors, Kennedy maintained a near 9K/9IP rate. Plus, his stellar debut in the majors also speaks to his ability. He doesnt have the breaking ball that Lester has, but Lester doesnt have the changeup or the fastball location that kennedy does. All told, Kennedy has a slight edge IMO which will grow if Lester doesnt consistently locate this upcoming yr.

 

Melky>Crisp in terms of age, ceiling, and potential. Melky was given the CF job in May. From May 1 to the end of August he hit .313 with a .810+OPS. September was uncharacteristically bad for him (18 for 100). That being said, he is a solid defensive CFer with good range and a great arm. 14 assists speaks to his arm ability. Crisp is the better ranged OFer and the better baserunner. But in terms of ceiling, Crisp is likely at his while Melky has more room to project.

 

Tabata=Lowrie. Lowrie is ready now. He could be a solid 2b for many yrs and will be a good OBP bet due to his good eye. That being said, Tabata played High A ball all season with a cyst in his wrist that caused him significant pain. He has had surgery to fix this problem. Even with this hindrance, he hit over .300, had an OBP of .371 and stole 15 bases. He has a great arm and the kicker is, he just turned 19. In terms of right now, Lowrie is the right guy, but nobody can deny Tabata's tools. And with the possibility of him being totally healthy and adding to his power potential, he might end up being the jewel of any prospective deal. I give Lowrie a slight edge due to his position and his proximity to the bigs.

 

In terms of Horne vs Masterson. Nobody will doubt Masterson's ability. He's 6'6" and throws gas. That being said, Horne has proven he can be both a sinkerballer and a strikeout pitcher. And prior to a late season swoon, he was absolutely dominant with a WHIP below 1.2. But most of the argument here harkens to their projectability. Horne made major strides with his sinker and changeup this season. Enough so that he is in the picture as a SP. Masterson, OTOH, has been a reliever in the eyes of most scouting sites since being drafted and he has done nothing to change that. Will Masterson be a better reliever than Horne will be as a starter? Probably. But that being said, an above average starter is worth more than a good reliever these days.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/11/29/thursday.scoop/?eref=mostpop

 

good Heyman article

[ORS]

I'd be interested in seeing how they rated Lester' date=' Buchholz, and Ellsbury. I think at least the last two have the potential to be five star prospects.[/quote']

Buch and Ellsbury were both 5 star, Masterson and Lowrie 4 star. Lester made the top 1/4 of some top-100 lists after his '05 in the EL, so it's hard to imagine he wasn't a 5 star, and to support that, he was better than Horne while only 21 in that league.

[jacksonianmarch]

it is also hard to imagine that Lester is still a 5 star player. Or Crisp for that matter. Like I said, the inclusion of Ellsbury or Buchholz changes the game dramatically.

[ORS]

I think Lester is going to surprise you next year no matter where he's pitching. And you still haven't answered my question.

 

Do you think Kennedy/Cabrera/Horne and Jackson or Tabata is enough?

[TheKilo]

I think Lester is going to surprise you next year no matter where he's pitching. And you still haven't answered my question.

 

Do you think Kennedy/Cabrera/Horne and Jackson or Tabata is enough?

 

Of course he does. Even though he recognizes Lowrie fills a position of need for them.

 

Crisp and Cabrera are comparable players. The question is, do the twins want to have a long term investment in a player that is similar to Crisp and block Ben Revere, their best positional prospect.

 

Jacko won't recognize the fact the Boston deal makes more sense for the Twins, especially if the Yanks aren't including Hughes or Joba. The fact that the Sox are even dangling a 5* prospect makes them the favorites and rightly so.

[TheKilo]

1. Yankees. They have the money to pay Santana and the prospects to get a deal done, even if they don't include untouchable sensation Joba Chamberlain. The Twins likely will try to pry Phil Hughes from the Yankees, who hope a combination of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and other prospects will suffice. The Yankees are suddenly well-stocked in the minors, with pitchers Alan Horne, Daniel McCutchen and Kevin Whelan and outfielders Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner. Odds to land Santana: 2-to-1.

 

McCutchen, Whelan, and Gardner haven't been mentioned at all. Curious as to why Heyman brings them up here.

 

I'd agree with his thought process if the Yanks were offering Hughes. They're not.

 

 

2. Red Sox. The Twins are pressuring Boston to include center field prodigy Jacoby Ellsbury along with World Series-clinching pitcher Jon Lester in a four-player package. However, with Boston refusing to budge on no-hit wonder Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox may have a hard time convincing the Twins to do a deal without Ellsbury. Boston also has decent second-tier guys, such as outfielder Brandon Moss, pitchers Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson and shortstop Jed Lowrie. They can't have the desperation of the Yankees, who are playing catch-up, though. Odds to land Santana: 5-to-2.

 

If the hang up is Ellsbury, I'll be disappointed.

 

Moss hasn't been mentioned either.

 

And saying "they don't have the desperation of the Yankees", when they are making a better offer (on the condition the Yanks won't include Hughes) has no relevance at all.

[yankeessuck013]

This comes down to who's going to blink first and give up the 2nd A level major league ready prospect. If the Red Sox subsitute Ellsbury for Crisp he'll be in Boston tomorrow. If the Yankees make it 2 of the three Pitchers or add Cano he'll be in NY by tomorrow

[ORS]

If the hang up is Ellsbury' date=' I'll be disappointed. [/quote']

I agree. I'll gladly watch Coco chase everything down for a couple of years with Santana in the rotation while they wait for Kalish/Place to mature or other options to become available via FA.

[TheKilo]

Some days back I posited that the Santana value would be roughly Crisp + Lester + two others, just as it's being reported this morning. That's maybe, possibly, a win for Boston, but it's close. It's certainly a win for the Twins, who get 20 years of talent for one year of Santana.

 

Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy???

 

If that trade is made, look for it to go down in history as the trade that doomed the Yankees.

 

Why is that exactly? They can go out and sign Rowand to play CF.

 

Besides, if the Yankees get Santana for anything less than that it has to be considered a huge win for them.

 

Wang/Santana/Joba/Hughes? Ughh.

[ORS]

No Hughes in that rotation, though.

 

But if Pettitte decides his next bag of oats comes from NY, then it's Santana/Pettitte/Wang/Joba. No thanks.

[ksushi]

Some days back I posited that the Santana value would be roughly Crisp + Lester + two others, just as it's being reported this morning. That's maybe, possibly, a win for Boston, but it's close. It's certainly a win for the Twins, who get 20 years of talent for one year of Santana.

 

Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy???

 

If that trade is made, look for it to go down in history as the trade that doomed the Yankees.

 

Ian Kennedy is not that good. He's regarded as a guy who is a safe bet to be a middle of the rotation starter, he isn't going to blossom into much more than that.

 

If I were Brian Cashman, I would have a hard time dealing away Phillip Hughes, Kennedy, Melky and a prospect, simply because you have to expect Joba and Hughes to be mainstays in your rotation for as long as you would have Santana for anyways, and much much cheaper. Trading away cheap pitching talent to sign a pitcher to what will almost certainly be the biggest contract a pitcher has ever inked isn't exactly a Cashman kind of move.

 

They don't have the position prospects to make it worth it for them and for the Twins...

 

I still think the dark horse in this one is the two LA teams. If one of them loses out on Cabrera and decides they want Santana, they might open and close talks in one night, and come out of it with a new ace.