Johan Santana

[example1]

I really' date=' really think you overvalue Ellsbury as a prospect.[/quote']

 

I'm sure you do. That's fine. It is two entirely different philosophies.

 

FWIW, you would have landed Santana 2 weeks ago with an offer of Buchholz and Ellsbury. It appears the Sox took my perspective (or I theirs) and now have made an offer that the Twins are seriously considering; WITHOUT Ellsbury or Buchholz.

 

My guess is that I value Ellsbury about as much as the Red Sox do. WHich is quite a bit, I'll admit.

 

I see him as the spark to our offense. I think he can have a huge impact on our offense for years to come, at a premium position, for MLB minimum salary. SO, his value is more than simply what he puts onthe field. His value is that he allows the FO to move away from having to find a CF and allows them to focus on SP and the 'pen.

 

Furthermore, if he were to have a good season his trade value would be at least as high, if not higher, than it is now.

 

With CC, Peavy, Lackey, Bonderman etc., hitting the market next year, and 6 SPs legitimately penciled into 5 spots in the rotation, I can see why the Sox would not be willing to move their top offensive prospect for a one-year rental to get a 5-10% increase in production. I love the ideea of Santana, but I love the idea of Santana + Buchholz + Ellsbury even more, and you should too.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Why is that exactly?

 

What's the future of these three Yankees?

 

Ian Kennedy: Fourth starter. Check the MLB Pitch F/X for Kennedy's games: he doesn't have great control. The umpires gave him calls outside the zone that they weren't giving the opposing pitchers--that's why he did well. Consider that baseball fans are getting savvy regarding how to detect such blatant bias, and add in his low velocity, and there's only one guy with that skill set who succeeded in MLB--the rest washed out around age 30.

 

As will Kennedy...but 'til then he's a fourth starter.

 

Melky Cabrera: All Star-caliber outfielder. He's got a right fielder's arm, range just shy of Coco Crisp's (equivalent RZR, with Crisp making about 20 more out-of-zone plays than Melky could've in the same number of innings), and the potential to turn into a HOF-caliber player (his PECOTA comparables include Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose and Carl Yastrzemski, as well as other HOF-caliber players). Melky is very young to be playing as a regular CF for the New York Yankees. He's going to be getting better for half a decade, and he's four years from free agency and one year away from arb.

 

Phil Hughes: Two-out-of-three chance he blows out his arm before age 24. If he doesn't, we're talking Cy Young-caliber pitching; if his arm makes it to age 26, we're talking HOF mention; if his arm makes it to age 32, we're talking HOF.

 

If Hughes stays healthy, he's BETTER than Johan Santana within three years, IMO. Upside like that from an MLB-minimum pitcher is high value stuff.

 

They can go out and sign Rowand to play CF.

 

Every MLB team is constrained by payroll. The Yankees have a big one, but there are limits: last I checked, the Yankees put roughly 70% of their revenues into player payroll, a higher percentage than any other MLB team. Santana and Rowand together will cost $30-40 million a year next year--that's a whole lot more than Cabrera and Hughes and Kennedy will cost.

 

Besides, if the Yankees get Santana for anything less than that it has to be considered a huge win for them.

 

Nope. If the Yankees lose Melky Cabrera and either Chamberlain or Hughes to get Santana I'll be happy.

 

Just as I'd be happy to land him for Crisp plus Lester plus two. :thumbsup:

[BoSox21]

Unless the Yankees are completely unwilling to give up Hughes or Chamberlain, I don't see how the Twins turn down a Yankee offer and accept a Red Sox offer that doesn't include Buchholz or Ellsbury

[TheKilo]

No Hughes in that rotation, though.

 

But if Pettitte decides his next bag of oats comes from NY, then it's Santana/Pettitte/Wang/Joba. No thanks.

 

Well yeah, but the offer on the table for the Yanks doesn't include Hughes...which was my original point.

 

iF Santana goes to the Yanks, the Sox need to make sure Hughes IS in the deal.

[BoSox21]

I think the Sox are seeing if they can swing it without Ellsbury but if the Yankees up the ante to the point where the Sox have to include him, they still have him as their ace in the hole

[TheKilo]

 

Nope. If the Yankees lose Melky Cabrera and either Chamberlain or Hughes to get Santana I'll be happy.

 

Just as I'd be happy to land him for Crisp plus Lester plus two. :thumbsup:

 

I'm in agreement. They HAVE to part with either Joba or Hughes. Anything other than that is a tremendous disappointment.

 

Thing is I think the Sox have the better offer if the Yanks insist on not including those two.

[TheKilo]

I'm sure you do. That's fine. It is two entirely different philosophies.

 

FWIW, you would have landed Santana 2 weeks ago with an offer of Buchholz and Ellsbury. It appears the Sox took my perspective (or I theirs) and now have made an offer that the Twins are seriously considering; WITHOUT Ellsbury or Buchholz.

 

Where the hell have I EVER advocated trading both Buchholz and Ellsbury for Santana?

 

My guess is that I value Ellsbury about as much as the Red Sox do. WHich is quite a bit, I'll admit.

 

I see him as the spark to our offense. I think he can have a huge impact on our offense for years to come, at a premium position, for MLB minimum salary. SO, his value is more than simply what he puts onthe field. His value is that he allows the FO to move away from having to find a CF and allows them to focus on SP and the 'pen.

 

Thing is, you're basing this off of what, 100 MLB ABs? You believe that he will be a spark, whereas Crisp has proven he can do so at the major league level.

 

The difference between Crisp and Ellsbury, especially when defense is taken into account, is not as big as many believe.

 

And the last part of your argument...about focusing away from finding a CF? They have one. Crisp. If anything, Ellsbury provides value that they can go after a frontline SP in Santana.

 

Furthermore, if he were to have a good season his trade value would be at least as high, if not higher, than it is now.

 

Maybe. if he has a bad season, what then?

 

People saw his performance in the WS. What if he hits .260 next season?

 

With CC, Peavy, Lackey, Bonderman etc., hitting the market next year, and 6 SPs legitimately penciled into 5 spots in the rotation, I can see why the Sox would not be willing to move their top offensive prospect for a one-year rental to get a 5-10% increase in production.

 

Dominant pitching is more valuable than a speedy CF who might OBP .380 and steal 30 bases.

 

I love the ideea of Santana, but I love the idea of Santana + Buchholz + Ellsbury even more, and you should too.

 

Of course I do. I just don't think it's reasonable. If the hangup is including Ellsbury in place of Crisp I'll be incredibly disappointed in the FO.

[cam780]

I find it interesting that many sox fans seem to consider Ellsbury a sure bet. And while I think the guy is a high energy, high ceiling kind of guy, you really know not what you will get from him next season. And the fact that your backup right now is at least defensively savvy in Crisp, you wont totally f*** yourself if you deal off Ellsbury. And you are correct on the power aspect. Hanley was always considered strong, the question was whether or not he would grow into his power. Ellsbury is not considered to be of that ilk and will likely have a couple of career yrs in the double digits of HRs, but aside from that is most likely slated for single digits, with a ton of legged out doubles, triples and steals.

 

 

This is true, but Pridie isnt really a cant miss guy. At the same time, he is intriguing enough to make things interesting.

 

 

 

I agree that the sox would be willing to deal a few pitchers, but the fact that their best MiLB pitcher is not in the mix makes this puzzling. A package headlined pitching wise by Lester and Masterson is eminently beatable. Kennedy/Horne for one, and that is without Hughes being in the mix.

 

 

 

Lester and Masterson project as 2's? In what universe? Lester will be a back rotation kinda guy unless he gets his location down. WHIP's>1.5 kinda suck and he seems to be pretty good at putting them up. Masterson has been projected by damn near every scouting site as being a middle reliever. Unless he develops his change to a point to where it is as useful as his fastball and breaking ball, that projection will likely hold true.

 

 

Lowrie does project as an OBP kind of player, but I dont think the projection states that he will be a MLB SS. That being said, the Twins 2b sucks too and I think Lowrie ends up there if dealt.

 

 

No issue there about Pedroia. And the sox system is deep in SS prospects, but they are mostly lower level players right now.

 

 

When you are dealing the best pitcher in baseball during his prime, do you really want a solid yet unspectacular deal coming back. A guy who can "hold the fort" until another guy develops? A pitcher who may or may not end up starting? A pitcher who may or may not find the plate enough to be anything more than a Casey Fossum redux? An IFer who might be slated for SS, but is better suited as a 2b? This kinda doesnt make sense on a bunch of levels. Either Hank pulled back from the table, the twins are asking for more from the yankees out of spite, or this link is full of BS.

 

 

 

So Lester's arm issues this yr dont factor in. And the idea that he had a life threatening disease that may or may not come back doesnt factor into his health? Making an argument including health and Jon Lester immediately invalidates the point. As much as I respect Lester and think he is one hell of a battler and a human being, when you strip away the emotion, you have as big a health liability as there is in the game today. And 4 star prospects to one? Is that list updated? So Kennedy, Tabata, Horne and Melky includes no 4 star prospects? The MiLB pitcher of the yr, the yankee top position prospect, the EL pitcher of the yr and a 23 yr old starting switch hitting CFer from the yankees all pale to the package above? I dont see it, but we will see in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

On the surface, the middle, the bottom, the sides and from a distance, this package is short. Replace Crisp with Ellsbury or Lester with Buchholz and you have a player. But like I said before, I think this is either a tactic to drag more out of NY, is BS, or is typical Yankee negotiation tactics from other teams.

 

A few things - how are the Yankee's prospects more certain than the Sox? With Ellsbury, I was actually arguing for him to be included in the deal and not excluded because he's can't miss? I also mentioned that the pitchers could be 2's - not will be - I didn't say that they're projected as such. And lastly the offer I had on the table was Hughes, Horne and Cabrera not the offer you had on the table and I think you're giving more credit to Kennedy than he deserves.

 

As far as that deal that you've proposed I think its fairly comparable depending on what the Twins are looking for. But Masterson could project to the rotation or as a reliever and assuming that Nathan isn't going to be there long term he could be used to setup Neshek. Again, it depends on what the Twins value. The Sox offer has four prospects all of whom could contribute next year. The Yanks offer that you are proposing has two players that can contribute next year and two more that are years away. There's an immense risk with any deal for prospects but if in fact the Twins want to have a chance to compete next year without Santana leading into the new stadium then the Sox offer satisfies that need more than your proposed offer from the Yanks. If the Yanks include two of the three pitchers or bend on Cano then they will have the best deal but the offer you presented is actually comparable - and apparently the Twins agree if we supposedly have the best offer.

[riverside sluggers]

Adding weight to report in the St. Paul Pioneer Press, ESPN's Buster Olney says the Twins and Red Sox are discussing a trade that would send Johan Santana to Boston for Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and a fourth player.

 

Charley Walters said the fourth player was Justin Masterson. Olney says it could be Michael Bowden, though that's still in flux. Bowden was viewed as the superior property a few months ago, but Masterson has since overtaken him in the eyes of many. This doesn't sound as good for the Twins as a Phil Hughes-Melky Cabrera-Austin Jackson package, though if the Yankees are trying to sub in Ian Kennedy for Hughes, then Boston's offer is clearly better. The Twins would use Lester in the middle of their rotation and Crisp in center field. Lowrie could use another half-season in Triple-A, but he might get a chance to battle for a starting job at short or at second base in spring training.

 

Charlie Walters said that the Red Sox are the current front runners. What a great deal this would be, especially if they get by without the inclusion of Buchholz/Ellsbury

 

cam, Jacko deems every Yankee prospect as major league ready and "sure things". The name escapes me of who he was touting as the next possible Yankees closer

[cam780]

I've heard this alot on EEI. Jake Peavy is not a free agent after this season. There's a team option involved. Same for Lackey not that I'd want him pitching at Fenway anyway and what are you willing to pay those guys because you know that the Yanks will be involved on all of the front line starters. Are you willing to pay Peavy or Sabathia, 25 million or 30 million per because the Yanks are involved?

 

Yes, Santana can name his price but he is probably the only player in the league who can and have the contract be worth it but dealing for him and then being able to keep the Yankees out of the process is worth Ellsbury right now.

[yankeessuck013]

No contract talks have started on Santana

By Nick Cafardo, Globe Staff November 29, 07 05:39 PM

 

As of early this evening Johan Santana's agent had not yet begun negotiating with any team in regard to a contract extension for his prized left-handed starter, according to a major league source familiar with the situation.

 

If he had that would be a sign that a team had agreed to a deal to acquire the coveted lefty and would then try to seal the deal by signing Santana to a long-term extension. This is what makes this deal so hard to put together.

 

The Red Sox appear to be smack in the middle of the action, according to one major league source. There's a lot of silence coming from Yawkey Way, always an indication there's something big in the works. According to what we've been told by a couple of major league sources is that the Sox would be willing to part with Tony Conigliaro Award winner Jon Lester over Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden over Justin Masterson. The Twins would take Coco Crisp to be their new center-fielder instead of the untouchable Jacoby Ellsbury, but doing that means the Sox would have to kick in another significant prospect. While sources did not confirm who that prosoect was, ESPN reported that it might be shortstop Jed Lowrie.

 

At this stage the Twins are still trying to sort out who is willing to offer what. The Yankees are still very much in the hunt with their talks centering around Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano. The Angels appear to have the wherewithal to make a deal quicker than anyone else because of the available young players and an abundance of pitching after they acquired Jon Garland from the White Sox in exchange for former Red Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera.

[Cocos Disciples]

Charlie Walters said that the Red Sox are the current front runners. What a great deal this would be, especially if they get by without the inclusion of Buchholz/Ellsbury

 

cam, Jacko deems every Yankee prospect as major league ready and "sure things". The name escapes me of who he was touting as the next possible Yankees closer

 

Probably HOF Edwar.

 

Coco, Lester, Lowrie and Masterson (my guess and the "other") for Santana? Yes, yes and yes. Next question.

 

EDIT: Olney says Bowden over Masterson as the likely other.

[Cityofchampions33]

I'm in agreement. They HAVE to part with either Joba or Hughes. Anything other than that is a tremendous disappointment.

 

Thing is I think the Sox have the better offer if the Yanks insist on not including those two.

 

You have to believe the Yankees seem hesitant as of now to include Hughes, though I'm not neccesarily sure that even that offer would top the Sox current supposed one of Lester, Lowrie, Crisp, and Bowden/Masterson. I just personally do not want Johan in pinstripes, Joba/Hughes or not. Santana is basically all you could hope for out of Joba or Phranchise, but he is much more proven and would improve the Yankees weakness and overall team immensely.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Santana is basically all you could hope for out of Joba or Phranchise' date=' but he is much more proven and would improve the Yankees weakness and overall team immensely.[/quote']

 

Santana's future is not necessarily greater than Chamberlain's or Hughes's futures, and Santana's past successes are history.

[MANNYHOF24]

Santana's future is not necessarily greater than Chamberlain's or Hughes's futures' date=' and Santana's past successes are history.[/quote']

 

Well, yeah. It's possible that they could be better but I would take my chances with the proven best pitcher in baseball. I mean he is only 28 years old. I believe that was the age Pedro was when he came to the Red Sox. Maybe it was 26 I am not sure. You have to take the proven ace in this situation, IMO.

[cam780]

Santana's future is not necessarily greater than Chamberlain's or Hughes's futures' date=' and Santana's past successes are history.[/quote']

 

I can't help but think that this time next year you might look like a genius but I have to ask if the Sox are going to target one pitcher in the league that isn't on their roster - and that would almost be a certainty over the next three years regardless of where Santana ends up - who would you want that pitcher to be? How much would you pay and/or who would you give up on the current roster?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I can't help but think that this time next year you might look like a genius...

 

Possibly, but between then and now there will have been a tornado somewhere in the Great Plains in which pigs will have flown, too.

 

...but I have to ask if the Sox are going to target one pitcher in the league that isn't on their roster - and that would almost be a certainty over the next three years regardless of where Santana ends up - who would you want that pitcher to be? How much would you pay and/or who would you give up on the current roster?

 

If available, discounting Yankees as irrelevant:

 

1) Brandon Webb

2) Scott Kazmir

3) Jake Peavy

4) Johan Santana

 

I'd give up Crisp, Lester and change....exactly what Theo is offering.

[cam780]

Possibly, but between then and now there will have been a tornado somewhere in the Great Plains in which pigs will have flown, too.

 

 

 

If available, discounting Yankees as irrelevant:

 

1) Brandon Webb

2) Scott Kazmir

3) Jake Peavy

4) Johan Santana

 

I'd give up Crisp, Lester and change....exactly what Theo is offering.

 

Can't argue with the list. Here's to hoping that you're right ... if the Yanks get him.

[Cityofchampions33]

Santana's future is not necessarily greater than Chamberlain's or Hughes's futures' date=' and Santana's past successes are history.[/quote']

 

My point is they can only hope their future is anywhere close to Santana's past few seasons, and that trading an unproven piece for a proven legit ace is most likely a good risk to take.

[example1]

If available, discounting Yankees as irrelevant:

 

1) Brandon Webb

2) Scott Kazmir

3) Jake Peavy

4) Johan Santana

 

I'd give up Crisp, Lester and change....exactly what Theo is offering.

 

If we're talksing about guys who would be nice additions but who are out of the realm of possibility here's my addition to that list of desireable pitchers:

 

King Felix (pretty sure he'll be the best pitcher in the league in a year or three)

Matt Cain

Eric Bedard

Cole Hamels

 

but I digress...

 

Beckett, Matsuzaka and Buchholz would top my list if they weren't Red Sox

[yankeessuck013]

UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 8pm: Despite what Jon Heyman said, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo seems to think the Red Sox are still in the lead for Santana. It would be the package named below by Olney. Nothing is done yet, as Santana's agent hasn't been approached about an extension. Meanwhile Cafardo indicates that the Yankees may part with Robinson Cano after all.

[Thumper]

UPDATE' date=' 11-29-07 at 8pm: Despite what Jon Heyman said, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo seems to think the Red Sox are still in the lead for Santana. It would be the package named below by Olney. Nothing is done yet, as Santana's agent hasn't been approached about an extension. Meanwhile Cafardo indicates that the Yankees may part with Robinson Cano after all.[/quote']

 

Damn me for not following Santana... But can someone fill me in, are we attempting to aquire him via Free Agency, or is he part of a trade deal? If he's a trade, who's the Sox front office looking to give up for him?

[schillingouttheks]

Damn me for not following Santana... But can someone fill me in' date=' are we attempting to aquire him via Free Agency, or is he part of a trade deal? If he's a trade, who's the Sox front office looking to give up for him?[/quote']

 

The most recent rumored deal in place has been Coco, Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson or Bowden for Santana. The trade will only go through if the Sox are able to extend Santana as a condition of the trade, however.

[Taliesin]

Damn me for not following Santana... But can someone fill me in' date=' are we attempting to aquire him via Free Agency, or is he part of a trade deal? If he's a trade, who's the Sox front office looking to give up for him?[/quote']

 

It's a trade. Bobby Kielty, Mirabelli , the ghost of Daubach and we're offering him 5 million a year to sign for 3. The Twins are balking still sore over giving up Ortiz for no apparant reason. They want Cora thrown in to make up for it.

[yankeessuck013]

The New York Times reports that the Yankees are sticking to an offer of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and at least one minor leaguer for Johan Santana.

 

The Times believes Jose Tabata could be the minor leaguer. The Twins are holding out for Phil Hughes over Kennedy. Unless the Yankees put Robinson Cano in the deal, it's hard to see them getting Santana without trading Hughes. Joba Chamberlain is completely off limits.

[Thumper]

The most recent rumored deal in place has been Coco' date=' Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson or Bowden for Santana. The trade will only go through if the Sox are able to extend Santana as a condition of the trade, however.[/quote']

 

Extend him for how long? I think that's a sound deal really for an exceptional lefty. If he dominates we won't have to worry about him and the rightys at Fenway. And Ellsbury has all but taken Crisp's job. The other's I'd assume are expendable to a point. All in all, unless he's looking for a 5 year deal or more, it's a good idea to take him.

[yankeessuck013]

Probably 5- 7 Years.

He wants 6/150.

[Thumper]

Probably 5- 7 Years.

He wants 6/150.

 

That's $25 Mil a year. Almost as much as A-Rod. No thanks Santana.

[schillingouttheks]

I heard 6/120. I thought he wanted $20M/yr. The Sox have the financial muscles to flex, so friggin do it. I will not mind having Santana for the next 7 years if a 6-year extension is what he wants.

[Thumper]

No deal, Howie.