Pitching staff projections for 07'

[example1]

I think the more than expected is in terms of attitude and average. Nobody thought he'd continue the power argument, but I dont think anyone thought he'd improve his average.

 

As for Hughes, nobody truly knows. Just like nobody truly knows about Matsuzaka and just like nobody though Wang would be top of the rotation caliber. For the past few yrs anyway, most scouts have been pretty good with the top pitching prospects in the game. The past 3 were King Felix, Liriano and now Hughes. The first two turned out alright in performance thus far, but nobody truly knows.

 

Has Hughes proven that he's a better pitcher than every other pitcher in Japan? It seems that being the best pitcher in Japan is better than being good in AA. In fact, most people see Japanese ball as being a step-up from AAA but below MLB.

 

I know that Matsuzaka struck Ichiro out a few times (search "matsuzaka" under google video), I know he dominated the Cuban team in the WBC and the MLB All Stars a few years ago (on youtube). I know that all of his statistics and every performance he's had for the past 9 years have indicated that he's got stuff that is as good as anyones.

[Gom]

Would it be enitrely unreasonable to compare Japanese ball to AAA ball? All I hear from Yankee fans is how MLB caliber Hughes will be and how big of an ace he'll be for years to come, but has he thrown a pitch?

 

Is Phillip Hughes MLB caliber?

 

No he is not. I would like to find out though. I am not going to tout him for being an ace when he comes up either. Sometimes you get lucky, you get a Dwight Gooden in 1985 who comes out of the gate and is phenomenal. However, I think he will develop into a good pitcher. I've seen too many pitchers over the years who were can't miss who missed, not just for the Yankees, but all over baseball. Remember Generation X for the Mets? More recently, King Felix from Seattle? I think that it is very unreasonable to expect a pitcher to come up and dominate the majors without ever having pitched in the majors.

 

I think the Japanese league is better than AAA, but I have no scientific study to show this. Just my personal feelings. I think that AAA is a better indicator of success due to the fact that AAA has been tied to baseball for much longer than Japanese baseball.

 

The Yankee fans who claim that Hughes will be the next Clemens are just as foolish as the Sox fans who have penciled in Matsuzaka for the Cy Young this coming season. No different. I'm trying to look at this from an objective point of view.

 

Here is an interesting question for Sox fans.

 

Forget about salary, posting, etc....would you trade Matsuzaka for Hughes straight up, right now?

 

I know there are quite a few Yankee fans on this site, I would be interested in hearing both sides. I for one....don't know. No idea. No clue. Damn, I ask good questions, lol.

[schillingouttheks]

Here is an interesting question for Sox fans.

 

Forget about salary, posting, etc....would you trade Matsuzaka for Hughes straight up, right now?

 

I know there are quite a few Yankee fans on this site, I would be interested in hearing both sides. I for one....don't know. No idea. No clue. Damn, I ask good questions, lol.

 

No, I wouldn't. Despite Matsuzaka not pitching in the MLB yet, I've watched a couple videos of him and his "stuff" is amazing. 4 pitches not named a fastball in a guy that young is unheard of. Also, he dominated the 2004 MLB All-Stars in Japan. So, even though it wasn't technically in the MLB, he has faced MLB caliber batters before and shown great promise.

[jacksonianmarch]

Has Hughes proven that he's a better pitcher than every other pitcher in Japan? It seems that being the best pitcher in Japan is better than being good in AA. In fact, most people see Japanese ball as being a step-up from AAA but below MLB.

 

I know that Matsuzaka struck Ichiro out a few times (search "matsuzaka" under google video), I know he dominated the Cuban team in the WBC and the MLB All Stars a few years ago (on youtube). I know that all of his statistics and every performance he's had for the past 9 years have indicated that he's got stuff that is as good as anyones.

 

I am going with the wait and see approach on both. I am just following the trend of the guys labelled as the "best pitching prospect in baseball." Recently, those have been pretty damn good.

[example1]

 

Here is an interesting question for Sox fans.

 

Forget about salary, posting, etc....would you trade Matsuzaka for Hughes straight up, right now?

 

I know there are quite a few Yankee fans on this site, I would be interested in hearing both sides. I for one....don't know. No idea. No clue. Damn, I ask good questions, lol.

 

Not a chance. One of them is in his prime NOW. One of them has dominated 2 olympics, a world baseball classic, the japanese league for 9 years and the MLB all-stars on at least one occasion. The other has not.

[seabeachfred]

No he is not. I would like to find out though. I am not going to tout him for being an ace when he comes up either. Sometimes you get lucky, you get a Dwight Gooden in 1985 who comes out of the gate and is phenomenal. However, I think he will develop into a good pitcher. I've seen too many pitchers over the years who were can't miss who missed, not just for the Yankees, but all over baseball. Remember Generation X for the Mets? More recently, King Felix from Seattle? I think that it is very unreasonable to expect a pitcher to come up and dominate the majors without ever having pitched in the majors.

 

I think the Japanese league is better than AAA, but I have no scientific study to show this. Just my personal feelings. I think that AAA is a better indicator of success due to the fact that AAA has been tied to baseball for much longer than Japanese baseball.

 

The Yankee fans who claim that Hughes will be the next Clemens are just as foolish as the Sox fans who have penciled in Matsuzaka for the Cy Young this coming season. No different. I'm trying to look at this from an objective point of view.

 

Here is an interesting question for Sox fans.

 

Forget about salary, posting, etc....would you trade Matsuzaka for Hughes straight up, right now?

 

I know there are quite a few Yankee fans on this site, I would be interested in hearing both sides. I for one....don't know. No idea. No clue. Damn, I ask good questions, lol.

 

GOM, think about it for a minute. The Yankee fans are all hot and bothered about our signing Matsuzaka and they are trying all ways to diss him and play him down. Now they trot out Philip Hughes to tell us they still have the edge over us. They are full of crap. What they don't tell you is that Randy Johnson may be through while our old pro Curt Schilling still has that last good year in him. They resigned Mussina, a good pitcher, but tell me, would you trade Papelbon for him? Who would you rather have? Then there is Beckett. Josh is ready to take his place as one of the best pitchers in baseball. I really believe that. I count four good Red Sox pitchers if we sign Matsu; they have two and are hoping that Philip pans out, but don't forget we have Bard, Bucholz and a few of those ourselves down on the farm. I'm going to tell you and all the rest of my talksox buddies what I think. I think the Yankees are scared shi#$ess of what we might be doing with all the money we might be throwing around this off season. My only gripe is what are they waiting for. If we pull off signing Matsuzaka, Drew, Lugo, and trade for a closer and another set-up man the Yankees know they are in trouble. One more thing. We all talk about how we lost those five games to them in our park and, yes, that was a real lousy scene and it cost us everything, but at least we didn't quite cold turkey. Remember when we went into Yankee Stadium for a four game series with only pride on the line. I was there and saw our team play their asses off and if Wily Mo Pena had known how to catch a fly ball we would have swept that four game series instead of only taking three. I was lucky, though. I got to see only the three regularly scheduled games and was a happy guy after each. A very nice trip to the rat infested Bronx.

[Ray10]

I say the rotation will look something like.

 

1. Schilling

2. Beckett

3. Matsukaza? If they can agree to terms with the guy as of right now I wonder if we will even see this guy next year.

4. Papelbon

5. Dinardo

[schillingouttheks]

If DiNardo is the Sox' 5th starter, I'm going to personally shoot Theo and every member of the Red Sox FO.

[a700hitter]

If DiNardo is the Sox' 5th starter' date=' I'm going to personally shoot Theo and every member of the Red Sox FO.[/quote']I'm hoping that he doesn't make the 40 man roster.

[Ray10]

LOL hey I can hope can't I. I know Dinardo won't be a starter next year but I would like to see him starting. What are the chances that Jon Lester will be back next year and in the starting rotation.?

[schillingouttheks]

Well, you missed Wakefield in the rotation.

[seabeachfred]

I would like to see DiNardo starting, too. For Podunk or Elmira, or Yuma, or anywhere as long as it isn't anywhere near Fenway Park. The guy plainly sucks. He stuff is lousy, his control is lousy, he has no fastball and most of the time gets lit up like a Christmas tree. Someone in the FO likes him whoever he is should be run out of town on a rail if this crumb bun even makes the team let alone start.

[Quinny]

Here is my best guess...

 

 

Schilling 15-8 4.00 Will still be good

Beckett 18-10 3.90 Hopefully will have a comeback season

Matsukaza 13-7 3.50 Will baffle hitters

Papelbon 14-8 4.00 Will be very reliable

Wakefield 13-10 4.20 The usual Wake

 

 

If these predictions are correct, we will have a very good rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is my best guess...

 

 

Schilling 15-8 4.00 Will still be good

Beckett 18-10 3.90 Hopefully will have a comeback season

Matsukaza 13-7 3.50 Will baffle hitters

Papelbon 14-8 4.00 Will be very reliable

Wakefield 13-10 4.20 The usual Wake

 

 

If these predictions are correct, we will have a very good rotation.

 

74 wins from your rotation while being 30 games over? Cmon now, you are better than that.

[Quinny]

74 wins from your rotation while being 30 games over? Cmon now' date=' you are better than that.[/quote']

 

never thought of that

:dunno:

[mar_022]

yanks win igawa bid w/ 25 million. im happy about that...he will suck

[ANiMAL]

what are the chances of lester returning in 07 and making an impact? i think he would be solid as a releiver towards the end of the year. lets just hope he beats cancer

[seabeachfred]

what are the chances of lester returning in 07 and making an impact? i think he would be solid as a releiver towards the end of the year. lets just hope he beats cancer

 

I think all of us should be hoping, praying and giving out positive vibes that Jon Lester gets well first. That is priority No. 1. What a story it would be, though, if he suddenly got better as the spring entered into the summer, he got a rehab assignment, and came to the Red Sox in the heat of a pennant race and help lead us into the World Series? That would be quite a story. Get well Jon, that comes before anything else. :D :D :D

[nickw308810]

Off topic and crazy idea, but did anyone see Chan Ho Park close in the WBC? He was lights out. Sure, that doesn't translate to actual success during the season, but it sure would be interesting to try.

[seabeachfred]

Off topic and crazy idea' date=' but did anyone see Chan Ho Park close in the WBC? He was lights out. Sure, that doesn't translate to actual success during the season, but it sure would be interesting to try.[/quote']

 

Nick, I saw Chan Ho many times out here where I live in So. Cal. In fact, I saw him too many times for my own good. With all due respect, NO THANKS!!!!!!:thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown

[Beckett95]

According to Peter Gammons, Jonathan Papelbon recently had another MRI on the shoulder he injured in September and again the results showed no problems.

 

The followup MRI was just precautionary it seems. The Red Sox will have Papelbon join the starting rotation in 2007.

 

good to hear that his shoulder is doing good

[jacksonianmarch]

yanks win igawa bid w/ 25 million. im happy about that...he will suck

 

I dont think he will suck, but I dont think he will be a 20 game winner like he was in Japan. He has the numbers which essentially show that he has good location and is durable. That sounds like a #4 or 5 starter. The yankees biggest problem during the season last yr was their lack of endurance that the back end of their rotation had. At the beginning, Chacon and Wright were averaging less than 5 innings per start. This guy is likely to give more and he will be cheaper than Lilly.

[riverside sluggers]

There are doubts about him even being capable of being a decent 5th starter. There is a possibility that he could go to the bullpen if what said is true. Im not sold on this guy at all

[jacksonianmarch]

There are doubts about him even being capable of being a decent 5th starter. There is a possibility that he could go to the bullpen if what said is true. Im not sold on this guy at all

 

I am not sold on him being a top of the rotation pitcher. I did watch some you-tube of him and he has MLB type stuff, just nothing overly impressive. The one thing I am impressed with is his averaging over 200IP for the past 5 seasons. Sounds like Zito-lite to me and he will come much cheaper.

[Cocos Disciples]

Nah...I like the Kaz Ishii lite comparisons.

[jacksonianmarch]

those comparisons are without merit. Ishii's undoing in the MLB was his insanely high walk total, which is something he had in Japan as well. Take a look at these numbers in Japan.

 

Ishii last 5 seasons in Japan

805IP 287ER 617H 906K 372BB

3.20ERA 1.23WHIP 10.1K/9IP 4.2BB/9IP

 

Igawa last 5 seasons in Japan

997IP 348ER 916H 952K 274BB

3.14ERA 1.19WHIP 8.6K/9IP 2.5BB/9IP

 

They are two different pitchers altogether. Ishii didnt get hit any harder in the major leagues, but his walk totals rose into the 100's. He had had at least one 100+BB season in japan before and was sitting in the 70-80 range in 170ish innings. Igawa is less of a power pitcher, so his hits should rise some, but the control and the durability is something that the yankees want out of their back end of the rotation starters. I am not saying he will be a stellar player, far from that, but the comparisons to Ishii end after you discuss left handed japanese pitchers.

[Cocos Disciples]

OK. Lets do this again.

I don't care what the comparison is. Kei Igawa is not going to be an effective major league pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

OK. Lets do this again.

I don't care what the comparison is. Kei Igawa is not going to be an effective major league pitcher.

 

again, more hoping and praying on your end. The general scouting consensus is the guy should be a 4/5 type pitcher whose durability, control and curveball will be his only highlights.

[mar_022]

those comparisons are without merit. Ishii's undoing in the MLB was his insanely high walk total, which is something he had in Japan as well. Take a look at these numbers in Japan.

 

Ishii last 5 seasons in Japan

805IP 287ER 617H 906K 372BB

3.20ERA 1.23WHIP 10.1K/9IP 4.2BB/9IP

 

Igawa last 5 seasons in Japan

997IP 348ER 916H 952K 274BB

3.14ERA 1.19WHIP 8.6K/9IP 2.5BB/9IP

 

They are two different pitchers altogether. Ishii didnt get hit any harder in the major leagues, but his walk totals rose into the 100's. He had had at least one 100+BB season in japan before and was sitting in the 70-80 range in 170ish innings. Igawa is less of a power pitcher, so his hits should rise some, but the control and the durability is something that the yankees want out of their back end of the rotation starters. I am not saying he will be a stellar player, far from that, but the comparisons to Ishii end after you discuss left handed japanese pitchers.

 

i like how you note that they are two COMPLETELY different pitchers, while all the stats you show, except the bolded walks stat, are virtually identical

[jacksonianmarch]

EXACTLY the point I wanted to get one of you to say. Why you ask? Because Kaz Ishii was very good....if you get rid of his walks. Take a look at Ishii's career stats.

 

564IP 278ER 508H 435K 354BB

 

less than a hit per inning, actually, significantly less than a hit per inning. But when you walk 5.6 guys per 9 innings, you will not be good. Now, you tell me that Igawa looks like Ishii without the walks? Well, if that is the case, then he should be pretty damn good. If you take Ishii's stats yet construe those out to 2.4BB/9IP rather than 5.6, then you subtract 151 baserunners and drop his whip from 1.53 to 1.26 which is a stellar whip for a 2 or a 3, let alone a back of the rotation guy.