Are the Sox good enough for 2007?

[riverside sluggers]

Here is a question for the Nation. Do you think that next year you will seriously contend [i.e. win] for the Wild Card? Truthfully' date=' I put you guys 6th in the AL right now, after [in no real order'] the Yankees, Tigers, Twins, A's, White Sox.

 

What do you think, and why?

 

The offseason hasnt even started up yet, I need to know how the team will look like come opening day

[ORS]

The point I was trying to bring up was exactly how the Red Sox planned to close the gap between them and the other teams.

You already made that thread ("What's the game plan?"). This asks a completely different and unanswerable, at this time, question.

 

I think the Jays rotation is every bit as good as the Sox and Yankees. With the exception of Wang, Halladay and Burnett are better than anything either team has [schilling may still be in that category, but he isn't a spring chicken]. That changes if Papelbon is anywhere near as good a starter as he was last year as a reliever.

So you changed the parameter from top starter to top two starters. Newsflash, teams use 5 man rotations in the regular season. My point remains, I think the Sox top-4 looks like the best top-4 in the AL East going into the FA season. Will that notion remain until March? It depends on who gets added to each team's rotation in the next couple of months, which is why this thread is completely jumping the gun.

[Cityofchampions33]

This is the most pointless thread ever. The Yankees didn't do anything significant, so you have nothing to brag about. And who would seriously want to discuss this now before the first FA is signed.

[pudge]

This pointless thread needs to be locked .

[rician blast]

Here is a question for yet another condescending Yankee fan. Do you really think that they are only limited to winning the WC? Truthfully, I like their rotation going into the hot-stove season better than the rest of the division.

 

What do you think and why?

 

 

ORS, I think its the $80m payroll advantage that has them automatically assume they'll be division champs.

 

Hell, its been working for them that last few years, perhaps if they get up to $250m they can win a playoff series again.

[Gom]

ORS, I think its the $80m payroll advantage that has them automatically assume they'll be division champs.

 

Hell, its been working for them that last few years, perhaps if they get up to $250m they can win a playoff series again.

 

It's more the 97 wins that makes me feel like they will win the division again. Maybe if you guys get to $150 million, you can make the playoffs. See how silly this sounds?

 

Money helps, but doesn't ensure a World Series title. Look at Yanks, Mets, Red Sox.

 

My whole point in this thread, which is actually to stimulate some conversation, is this:

 

Every team, for the most part [the Angels being probably the only real exception], will stay within 10% of their payroll. Given that, and with the contracts the Red Sox already have, can they realistically get better than the other teams in the AL?

[rician blast]

It's more the 97 wins that makes me feel like they will win the division again. Maybe if you guys get to $150 million, you can make the playoffs. See how silly this sounds?

 

Money helps, but doesn't ensure a World Series title. Look at Yanks, Mets, Red Sox.

 

My whole point in this thread, which is actually to stimulate some conversation, is this:

 

Every team, for the most part [the Angels being probably the only real exception], will stay within 10% of their payroll. Given that, and with the contracts the Red Sox already have, can they realistically get better than the other teams in the AL?

 

 

Ease up, I wasn't talking to you in the first place.

 

Now, with respect to your post above, with you stating that the Angels will be the exception what do you mean? Are they going to spend a lot more? or a lot less?

[ORS]

Absolutely. If 'Tek, Crisp, and Beckett perform to their abilities, and the youngsters (MDC, Hansen, and Pedroia) continue to improve at this level, then they are already better without any roster addition. I don't think either of those things are unreasonable expectations.

 

Add to that one of the top-tier pitchers in the market, and their rotation is much better than last year. No more replacement level pitchers in the 4 and 5 spot will make a huge difference.

[Gom]

Ease up, I wasn't talking to you in the first place.

 

Now, with respect to your post above, with you stating that the Angels will be the exception what do you mean? Are they going to spend a lot more? or a lot less?

 

Arte Moreno, owner of the Angels, has gone on record saying that the Angels will be big spenders this offseason.

 

http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/angels/ci_4365287

[Cityofchampions33]

How is what the Angels doing relevant to this thread at all?

[Gom]

How is what the Angels doing relevant to this thread at all?

 

It feels strange quoting myself, but here is what I said before:

 

Every team, for the most part [the Angels being probably the only real exception], will stay within 10% of their payroll. Given that, and with the contracts the Red Sox already have, can they realistically get better than the other teams in the AL?

 

That said, I think you can forget about Tek as a serious offensive contributor. Both him and Posada are on the wrong side of 30, and I believe both are headed for a steady decline. Crisp may rebound, but I daresay that Tek's seasons of a major offensive force in that lineup are finished.

[rician blast]

If the angels become big spenders they're going to make the FA picture interesting.

 

Would they go after Zito...maybe he likes the West Coast. Or perhaps Schmidt? Is there any way they get a deal done for ARod (I hope he stays right where he is)?

 

I suspect the Mets will go hard after Zito as well.

 

My gut says the Sox are going to have to get better through trades...maybe they go after Schmidt, maybe Gil Meche, but assuming they don't land a FA pitching, a creative trade may be necessary...if they don't get that done I'd cal it a rebuilding year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gom' date=' It doesn't make sense to ask that question right now. It's only October and no moves have been made to even think about next season.[/quote']

 

Agreed, if left as is, the sox wont make the playoffs, but there are a lot of moves to be made.

[Cityofchampions33]

That said' date=' I think you can forget about Tek as a serious offensive contributor. Both him and Posada are on the wrong side of 30, and I believe both are headed for a steady decline. Crisp may rebound, but I daresay that Tek's seasons of a major offensive force in that lineup are finished.[/quote']

 

I wouldn't say that completely, but yeah, I don't expect him to hit above .285 with 20 HRs. However, as we all saw, he's an asset to our pitching staff, especialy with our younguns developing in his hands.

[guapo34]

about varitek: he doesn't need to have a big year to be a significant upgrade over what we got this year. Our catcher spot was like having our pitcher hit. Tek played hurt all year and seemed like he was turning a corner after coming off the DL. If he has a mediocore year this year it will be a big upgrade.

[ORS]

about varitek: he doesn't need to have a big year to be a significant upgrade over what we got this year. Our catcher spot was like having our pitcher hit. Tek played hurt all year and seemed like he was turning a corner after coming off the DL. If he has a mediocore year this year it will be a big upgrade.

Exactly. Many people were saying the same thing about Posada going into this year, and he had a really good year for a catcher. All too often, people think the most recent year is all that matters for projecting the future when the overall career numbers, with an eye on age, are much more important.

[Beckett95]

1) Cordero is signed for 07

 

forgot about that. I agree that Gonzalez would be my #1 choice.

 

2) No way does the FO land schmidt AND matsuzaka, and even if they could, they wouldnt spend that much money

 

there is no way they get both, but they need to get 1

 

3)This lineup is way too similar to this past year's lineup...too many role players

 

it may be, but the pitching is MUCH, MUCH better. I think Johnson is an upgrade to Nixon in the 5th spot and Pedroia has potential to be better than Loretta in the 2nd spot.

[scaffolds]

Like i have mentioned in another thread, the Sox can't compete in the AL with Manny and Ortiz as their only source of production, specially with corner infielders like Youkilis and lowell. Lowell is a golden glove caliber defender, so the one to the bench or traded has to be Youkilis.

[a700hitter]

Like i have mentioned in another thread' date=' the Sox can't compete in the AL with Manny and Ortiz as their only source of production, specially with corner infielders like Youkilis and lowell. Lowell is a golden glove caliber defender, so the one to the bench or traded has to be Youkilis.[/quote']Youk is cheaper and younger, so he also has more trade value. I have also been saying this. Sell high on Youk.

[example1]

Youk is cheaper and younger' date=' so he also has more trade value. I have also been saying this. Sell high on Youk.[/quote']

 

 

I would expect a lot for Youkilis if the sox were to get rid of him. They got WMP for Arroyo, so I would expect something along those lines but better. Youkilis hasn't had his good years yet and I think his plate discipline and patience are very advanced for a guy just entering his prime years.

 

If they give him up they better expect to see him contributing big time to another team for the next decade. He won't be a perrenial all-star, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed. However, I think that his style will be very useful until his mid-30s and he's actually pretty well suited to 1B. It's true that he doesn't have the power one would expect from a first baseman, so the sox will have to make up for that someplace. If they don't trade Manny, and they have Ortiz and a productive WMP then I think we're looking at the basis of a solid offense, especially if there is another move in there someplace for a 1B. I'd keep Youkilis over Lowell at this point in their respective careers. He's a very tough at-bat and I don't take any of the Red Sox stats during the last 2 months seriously: Youkilis could easily be a .300/.385/.450 guy for the next 8 years. I look at Youk and I see a guy who probably doesn't take steroids and who puts up numbers like many corner infielders did 20 years ago.

 

Don't get me wrong, for the right deal I could see giving him up but I don't expect the sox to move him for anything less than a very solid pitcher or top-tier prospect.

[a700hitter]

I would expect a lot for Youkilis if the sox were to get rid of him. They got WMP for Arroyo, so I would expect something along those lines but better. Youkilis hasn't had his good years yet and I think his plate discipline and patience are very advanced for a guy just entering his prime years.

 

If they give him up they better expect to see him contributing big time to another team for the next decade. He won't be a perrenial all-star, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed. However, I think that his style will be very useful until his mid-30s and he's actually pretty well suited to 1B. It's true that he doesn't have the power one would expect from a first baseman, so the sox will have to make up for that someplace. If they don't trade Manny, and they have Ortiz and a productive WMP then I think we're looking at the basis of a solid offense, especially if there is another move in there someplace for a 1B. I'd keep Youkilis over Lowell at this point in their respective careers. He's a very tough at-bat and I don't take any of the Red Sox stats during the last 2 months seriously: Youkilis could easily be a .300/.385/.450 guy for the next 8 years. I look at Youk and I see a guy who probably doesn't take steroids and who puts up numbers like many corner infielders did 20 years ago.

 

Don't get me wrong, for the right deal I could see giving him up but I don't expect the sox to move him for anything less than a very solid pitcher or top-tier prospect.

He's a right-handed Scott Hatteberg. I think he would have to be part of a package to get something big in return.

[example1]

He's a right-handed Scott Hatteberg. I think he would have to be part of a package to get something big in return.

 

 

Except that Hatteberg's best seasons are roughly equal to this season for Youkilis. Actually, Hatteberg's best OPS season was this year (.825). There's no reason to think Youkilis won't do considerably better than that with more experience.

 

Again, I'm all for putting Youkilis in as part of a great deal but he's worth a fair amount in my opinion. I think his 2 position abilities and OBP make him as valuable a piece as Crisp, especially considering how much cheaper he is.

[a700hitter]

Except that Hatteberg's best seasons are roughly equal to this season for Youkilis. Actually, Hatteberg's best OPS season was this year (.825). There's no reason to think Youkilis won't do considerably better than that with more experience.

 

Again, I'm all for putting Youkilis in as part of a great deal but he's worth a fair amount in my opinion. I think his 2 position abilities and OBP make him as valuable a piece as Crisp, especially considering how much cheaper he is.

Hatteberg did not get appreciably better after age 27. What makes you think Youklis will improve very much? Their production is very similar. They are nice ballplayers, but neither is anything special.

[Bosoxwest]

Youks has value due to his affordability and age, and is a tradeable commodity, but he will not bring anything close to Arroyo back on his own. He is probably as good as he will get. His ZiPS projection for next year is pretty much a flat line. I'm not denigrating him: like Pedroia, he's a guy who is getting the most of of his package.

 

Staying on topic, Spann is pretty exciting - the kid's just 22 years old. Just needs to control the zone a bit more, but he has the time, right?

[riverside sluggers]

Spann's biggest goal this offseason is to improve his defense

 

If he does that and continues his offensive rebound as was seen in Double A this year, he's looking like a Sept 07 call-up so far

[riverside sluggers]

Like i have mentioned in another thread' date=' the Sox can't compete in the AL with Manny and Ortiz as their only source of production, specially with corner infielders like Youkilis and lowell. Lowell is a golden glove caliber defender, so the one to the bench or traded has to be Youkilis.[/quote']

 

It would only have to be through trade that Sox acquire a slugging 1st baseman, 06 & 07 free agent classes in that position are the bottom of the barrel types. Ditto for 3rd base (exception Aramis Ramirez)

[Gom]

Who know who is an interesting free agent for both the Yankees and the Sox? Nick Johnson. I sure hope we get him back, and put Giambi in the DH spot.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

Nick Johnson signed a 3 year extension. He wont be a FA untill after the 09 season.

[elsrbueno]

Hatteberg did not get appreciably better after age 27. What makes you think Youklis will improve very much? Their production is very similar. They are nice ballplayers' date=' but neither is anything special.[/quote']

 

Coincidentally enough-- I don't know if you looked up the numbers a700 or guessed... Hatteberg and Youkilis had very similar career paths headed into their age 26 season.

 

Youkilis has a SMALL amount more power but not much. Youkilis is what he is. He's 27 years old, so traditionally based on his age you'd expect him to maintain (and improve) his performance over the next few years (4 or 5) then start to trail off. However, Youkilis is not a high ceiling guy. He isn't (despite packing 220 LBS) a power hitter. I'd expect Youkilis' CAREER season to total 25 homers at BEST. That having been said, he is very good at getting on base and a solid defender at first. He's a quality player and I'd take him as an everyday first baseman or third baseman.

 

Lowell was a better power hitter in his prime than Youkilis will be (IMO), and in the short term is a better defender and comprable hitter (minus the OBP). He's got more power NOW AND strikes out half as often as Youkilis does.

 

I really like BOTH of these players, but the bottom line is that I'm not sure the lineup can sustain both of these guys at once and contend in the AL East. Toronto and New York are probably going to be agressive, and that means spending a lot of money (Toronto was said to increase their payroll by upwards of $20 million-- that could make for an interesting market if Anaheim is also agressive).

 

I'd shop both players and trade the one who brings back the best value. I'd be very reluctant to trade a Youkilis or Lowell for a Linebrick straight up because relievers IMO are less predictable and therefore less valuable.

 

Nick Johnson is a solid player, one who I've always respected. He's got the on base skills of Youkilis with slightly more power. I haven't seen him play a ton, but I've heard he's got good defensive skills. He'd be a player who would be a nice replacement for Youkilis or Lowell if one of them is traded. However I'm one person who believes that Coco Crisp will rebound and have a good season next year. He's probably best suited for left field because of his crappy arm but we've already got a pretty good player in left. He does cover some ground but doesn't have great instincts as an outfielder (probably because he was converted from an infielder earlier in his career). Seems like his profile is best suited as a middle infielder anyway-- I wonder if he could be convinced to re-learn second base?

 

Just a random thought.

[scaffolds]

The comparison of Youkilis and Hatteberg is a fair one, i also agree that trading Youkilis not in a package isn't going to bring a lot of value back and also that there isn't much in the free agent market when it comes to first baseman or production hitters, unless we are talking about Carlos Lee but his asking price maybe out of what the Sox would be willing to pay, so yes the new first baseman would have to come in a trade. I take Nick Johnson over Youkilis any day, but again he isn't the answer of what the Sox needs.