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Nomar back to Boston would be a feel good story, but at this point he doesn't provide anything the Red Sox can't get from the personnel they already have in hand. Like every fan who saw him play in Boston, I loved him as a player and it restored my faith in RSN when he got the standing ovation the other night. For all fans who were there, thank you for doing the classy thing. But let him ride off into the sunset with another team.

There's a major problem with trading Coco Crisp right now-- not many teams need a CF. I took a breeze through the MLB.com depth charts and saw very few teams without established centerfielders already in place: The Reds list Ryan Freel as their #1 CF. Of course, it's only a matter of time before Jay Bruce steps in and they're probably looking for a more short term option. Even if they were interested in Coco, what would they give up that could help the Sox? They are looking to ADD a pitcher. Oakland's already been mentioned, and they could probably use a good centerfielder. With Blanton on the block this framework makes some sense, but what else would they want? They're looking to contend 2 or 3 years down the road so they'd undoubtedly ask for the likes of Lowrie / Bowden / Masterson in addition. White Sox-- I'm not sold on Swisher as a center fielder. If you ask me he's much better suited to a corner spot but he's wasted at first. Konerko's there long term so my GUESS is that he ends up slotting in left long term. However, they've got options in center (most notably Jerry Owens) and they don't have a ton of SP depth to deal from (Buerle, Vazquez, Contreras is the top 3 with Danks / Floyd as the 4/5). The Cardinals can't realistically think Rick Ankiel's an everyday center fielder, but whoever starts the season in center for them is merely keeping the spot warm for Colby Rasmus... and they are even thinner in the SP department. The Twins are interesting because Carlos Gomez hasn't proven a thing and could potentially use some time in AAA, but they're rotation is full of rookies... the best case senario here is a prospect and the Red Sox already have those... The Giants have a weak OF but the last thng they need is another speed guy. I'd love the Sox to get their hands on a Matt Cain, but if they wouldn't do it for Rios they won't do it for Crisp... I'm not a big Edmonds fan but you've got to think the Padres plan on playing him, and the back end of their rotation is all gamble free agents (Wolf/Prior) The Orioles make some sense because Adam Jones (or Crisp himself) could shift over to left field, but they move slower than molasses on potential trades. Angelos likes to kill trades but Crisp would give them some credibility NOW so he might be interested. That having been said the Orioles added about 10 pitchers over the offseason but not many of them would be upgrades over the Sox' current options. Really, that's it. Seems like the A's are the best fit but they may ask for the moon for Blanton. Another thought is that Corey Patterson and Kenny Lofton are still free agents, and many teams who would consider a CF may try to get one of those 2 on the cheap before trading talent (especially pitching talent) for Crisp.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3242295 ESPN's reporting it now, too. Looks like he'll be sent down in June to get stretched out.

Of course this has been talked about all winter long, and of course the NY Post isn't the most reliable of sources. BUT-- if this report is true and Chamberlain starts the season in the pen this COULD be the end of Joba as a starter. Remember Papelbon a year ago? They're basically in the same boat. Both had the stuff / arm to be good starters but both proved they could be DOMINANT relievers. However if he spends any significant time in the bullpen it would be difficult to get him stretched out midseason. This would make the Yankees bullpen instantly one of the best with Joba capable of 2+ dominant innings and Mariano to close the door.

The Giants are proving that they're one of the worsr run franchises in baseball. Now I understand they've got smart people, and scouts, and video, etc.... biut they still can't see what everyone else sees? Aaron Rowand had a CAREER year in 2007. He's 30 years old, moving from a fantastic hitters park to a horrible hitters' park... but even with inflation this guy's not going to be worth $12 million in 5 years. The Giants meanwhile have no offense (either Rowand or Bengie Molina will bat cleanup for them) very little in the way of help from the minor league system, and they spend bigtime money on a declining and mediocre Zito last year, then a declining and mediocre Aaron Rowand. The only thing they could have done to prove they were stupider would be to trade Lincecum for Rios. Wow.

Not El Guapo!!! Say it isn't so!!!

Lots of interesting names. Prior's the biggest one, but he'll be the farthest from making an impact. My eyes widened when seeing Otsuka's name, I had thought he would close for the Rangers-- of course they've got Benoit and CJ Wilson who both did decent jobs in relief for them. I think Otsuka could close in Houston or Baltimore, or be a setup man for a contender. I know he missed the second half last year, but was a very good reliever when healthy. I have no idea when he's expected to be healthy but someone will give the man a nice contract-- despite the fact that he's got injury concerns + is 36 years old. McPherson seems like a guy long on potential who just can't get the job done. I'm not a big fan of the term "AAAA player" but this guy might fit that mold. He's 27 which means he's pretty much at peak age... but someone will take a chance on him based on his minor league track record. Hard to pinpoint any real huge values here. Guys like Towers will get contracts based on the fact that they're a live body willing to pitch to Major League hitters, and Matt Wise could set up for a National League team. A guy who intreagues me is Cory Doyne. He's 26, had a couple innings in Baltimore last year but was pretty dominant in AAA-- 49 strikeouts in 44 innings, only 16 walks and a 0.88 WHIP. The dude's 26 years old but he deserves a shot in SOMEone's bullpen... I was under the impression that Donnelly was out for the entire 08 season-- so anyone who signs him now would probably do a 2 year, Jon Lieber deal trying to catch a break on that second year and hope he contributes in '08.

Word on the street is that the Twins weren't interested in Milledge but Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez instead. Milledge's stock seems to have dropped dramatically. I've read the Mets will non-tender Johnny Estrada and made the trade to get out of Guillermo Mota's contract ($3.2 million for 2008).

This is kind of an out of my ass idea, but what about Brad Wilkerson? I understand that he's been injury plagued the past few years, that he's 30 and seemingly on the downward portion of his career production curve, but he could come cheaply and be a potential veteran re-enforcement for Carter at first. He could also be a corner outfield guy and he's played a bunch of games in center, too (in a pinch). At the very least he's a better option than Hinske for lefty power bat and he could be a bargain. Just for fun, I looked up Miguel Tejada's career splits for his numbers at Fenway Park: .305 / .364 / .520 Not terrible, and you'd have to imagine his wrist injury sapped his power a bit. I'd be shocked if the seemingly OBP heavy Red Sox front office made a move for "Mr. Swing at everything." (as dubbed by Billy Beane) but they may smell a value here too. He'll turn 32 early in 2008 so he's clearly in the decline phase but he's hardly old. On another note he'll make $13 million in '08 and $13 million in '09 (about what the Sox were willing to pay for Lowell) so if the Orioles kick in a little salary relief he may be worth some prospects. He also has stated he wants out of Baltimore on several occasions so I'd imagine he'd agree to play third for the defending World Champs. That having been said, would the Orioles agree to sending their best hitter to a division rival? What about Tony Clark? Had a decent year with pop as a "backup" to Conor Jackson this season, could serve as a platoon partner to Chris Carter.... on that note-- what about Conor Jackson himself? I heard the Diamondbacks had soured on him a bit and the Red Sox know their GM pretty well.... Any idea whether or not the Mets would part with Fernando Tatis?

I'm not sure this is that rotten a day for the Sox. I think Nick Cafardo did his Boston media duty to put a negative spin on a story to get more readership. He's starting to listen to Shaughnessy too much. I think I'm on record (if you count old posts on this site and conversations with friends) that I'd like the Sox to resign Mike Lowell, so this isn't spin because the outlook is bleak, but at 4 years and $60 million I'd much rather someone else take that risk. Some facts about RSN's new favorite son: 1. He'll be 34 on opening day. 34 year old players don't typically improve going forward. No matter whose age curve you use, he's on the downward portion of it. 2. Lowell's RBI and average total were both career highs by a large margin, and to a certain extent out of his control. Batting Average is dictated partially to skill but also partially to luck. Based on the fact that Lowell's .324 was SO FAR above his career mark of .280 I'd expect his average to fall off from 2007 significantly. Along with that would inevitably come a drop in hits/doubles/homers and you'd assume RBIs. Also, you can't accumulate RBIs of the 2007 Lowell magnitude without people on base, meaning if he goes to a lesser lineup (either LA, St. Louis) even if he produces another good offensive season that number will likely drop. 3. Lowell had some very dramatic home/road splits in 2007: Home:.373 .418 .575 Road: .276 .339 .428 This suggest to me that those of us who were predicting that Fenway would help Mike Lowell (me included) were right, but those road slash stats are very close to his career numbers: .280/.344/.468 which to me is a much better indication of his true ability. Put him in LA, Atlanta, St. Louis, or even NY and these are the types of numbers he'd put up. Decent? Sure, but worth $15 million? It's even laughable that he'd be considered a productive first baseman 4 years from now with those types of numbers. Now, some things that aren't necessarily fact but should be taken into consideration: Mike Lowell has a reputation for being a gold glove caliber third baseman. I admit, watching this guy play makes me glad he's on "our side." That having been said, some of the more sophisticated defensive metrics rank him at the bottom of the MAJORS in defense at third base. The Fielding Bible (a fascinating read BTW for folks who like numbers and over-analyzing baseball) and those who put the data together for it hired people to watch every single Major League baseball game over the course of 3 years and log where every single ball was hit. Read the book for more details, but they basically rate Mike Lowell as being very good at fielding bunts (probably the best in the league) and one of the best at fielding balls down the line (or to his right). Of course it's difficult to tell how much of that is good fielding and how much is good defensive placement, but the numbers suggest that he is in the lower third of third baseman at fielding balls right at him and to his left. Another defensive Metric (called SAFE) developed by Shane Jensen (method explained here: http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~stjensen/research/safe.html ) rates Lowell as a very poor defensive third baseman. Typically a good sign of a good conclusion is the fact that you can get the same result using different methods. OF COURSE, any of these methods have inherant flaws and they are not gospel, but perhaps us fans (and I'm guilty of it too at times) take what we see on face value and overrate/underrate players-- and there's a pretty good chance Mike Lowell isn't the golden boy we make him out to be. Will I be happy if the Sox resign Lowell-- sure... if they do it AT THE RIGHT PRICE. If Mikey can get $60 million over 4 years from the another team, I'd give him a congratulatory phone call, thanking him for his service and let him walk away. There's no evidence I've seen anywhere to suggest that Mike Lowell is a superstar player capable of earning $15 million per for 4 years. I'd even walk away from 3 years and $45 if I were the Red Sox. Luckily, Theo and his team are not only smarter than me, but they also spend a lot more time and have a lot more resources than I do to make the correct decision, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sox let Lowell walk here... and I wouldn't blame either party one bit.

JHB-- I love your idea of bringing in a veteran righty to platoon with Chris Carter if Lowell signs elsewhere, but for my sanity and that of the rest of the Red Sox fanbase, please stop advocating for Kevin Millar. For some of those longstanding Talksox members, you'll remember my Millar rants. I don't think there's a player in Red Sox history I've hated more. The dude can't run, play defense, hit lefties, hit in a pitchers park, etc, etc, etc. Please refer to the ESPN provided splits for Kevin Millar over a 3 year period: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5981&type=batting3 He's actually a BETTER hitter against righties than he is against lefties! Take a look at his slash stats aganst lefties from 2005 through 2007: .247/.348/.392 That makes his paltry .266/.364/.418 overall (over that same time span) look Ryan Howardesque by comparison. Please. For the love of god. No Millar. He's a waste of a roster spot, let alone $2.75 million

I agree with everything JHB said here. If Posada hits .330 again in his career I'll be shocked, he was lucky and played above his career norms which just doesn't happen for a 36 year old. That having been said, Posada hasn't shown signs of a slowdown despite his age so he should be useful behind the plate for at least the first few years of his contract. Not to mention the fact that by the time he's in year 3 and 4, Damon/Giambi will be gone and Posada can DH if his skills have eroded. If paying him an extra couple million and tacking on an extra year is what the Yankees needed to do to keep Posada from fleeing to the Mets, to me it's worth it for them. He's still one of the best offensive catchers out there, and the Yankees aren't exactly the Devil Rays.... overpaying Posada in 2012 won't exactly cripple them....

The interesting thing about Diaz (to me) is that he's still very young (20) and playing in A ball didn't fall flat on his face. It's encouraging too that he's playing with guys a lot older in Hawaii, which (in albeit a short history) has been a pitcher-dominated league, and lead the league in hitting. The thing that bugs me about Diaz is that he doesn't seem to have any speed or power based on the numbers and he strikes out a TON (3:1 strikeout to walk rate in the minors in 2006 and 2007). It's still a question whether or not he will hit in the upper levels and I wonder if he'll develop enough offense to be an everyday guy.

No thanks on Hank Blalock. His .543 slugging in 2007 was in slightly over 200 ABs and the best of his career. Not to mention the fact that he's got pretty dramatic home/road splits. The Sox would probably be better off moving Youk to third and playing Chris Carter at first. No me gusta Hank Blalock.

I agree with you about 90% here. ARod-Manny-Ortiz as a 3-4-5 (however it shakes out) would be pretty amazing. I also agree that if Lowell hits the market he'll get a 4 or 5 year deal for $12 million a year... something it appears the Red Sox aren't prepared to give. I seem to remember a centerfielder fans wanted back quite a bit... and were pissed that the Front office let him go. I forget his name though. My hunch is that Lowell stays. He should realize that his value (and his success) is so much higher here in Boston because of the park, the team, and the lineup and he very simply won't be the same player anywhere else. He can get the money in New York, perhaps LA or Texas or a bunch of places.... but IMO he doesn't put up numbers anywhere close to his 2007 anywhere else. That having been said, he's due for a bit of a regression anyway since this dude's not a .324 hitter....

I don't think this move gets the credit it deserves. Obviously it's a no brainer. 1 year and $16 million is a really good value IMO. Abreu is clearly in the decline phase of his career, but he's also very clearly a very productive bat and a capable outfielder for 1 more year. Smart move by the Yankees here.

BP's take on the trade. A complete 180 from my take and what seems to be the consensus on this board.... http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=665 From a business perspective getting 11 cheap seasons from Bourn and Costanzo is certainly valuable, and it's something a lot of casual fans overlook-- and maybe this was the market value of Brad Lidge right now, but I still like the Phillies side of it-- even if Lidge isn't closer material.

Ed Wade's career as the Astros GM certainly didn't get off to a good start. Yes, Brad Lidge struggled with the Astros, YES, he lost his closer job, but he still has the stuff and pitching should always come at a premium. Geary came back to earth in 2007, I'd hate Bourn as an everyday player, and Costanzo's got some pop and is still relatively young. However, my problem with both Bourn and Costanzo is that they both strike out twice as often as they walk, which isn't a terribly great sign. Especially for Bourn, who has absolutely no pop in his bat whatsoever. On the Phillies side of it, they take a flier on a reliever with good stuff and move Myers back to the rotation where (IMO) he belongs. He was pretty darn good as a closer but a bit wasted considering he was pretty good as a starter too. Crespo's got a point, Philadelphia's a tough place to play. This guy will be under some pressure and I wouldn't be surprised if he loses his job if he struggles to Tom Gordon (although I don't think he's a viable option either). While I think the mental aspect of closing gets overblown a bit, Lidge may be one of those guys who would be better off in a setup role. He's got the bigtime K numbers and could be leveraged in such a way where he could be brought into key spots in a game when the Phillies really need a big strikeout. I still think Lidge has it in him to be an impact arm out of the bullpen and I'm not confident in any of the players Houston got to be impact players (although Costanza's got the best shot). This trade, at least right now, looks like a big win for the Phillies.

From boston.com It would seem like a long shot to me, but if the Red Sox could acquire Saltalamaccia in a Coco Crisp deal this would (IMO) be the best option. I'm a big Coco Crisp fan, but Jarrod is a nice offensive young catcher who I've read is a little underrated defensively.

I forget where I saw/read it but some dude speculated that if Lowell signs elsewhere the Red Sox could do the following: 1. Move Youk to third 2. Move Ortiz to first 3. Move Manny to DH 4. Play Coco in LF There was a time when I'd have been a proponent of this idea, but given the current circumstances I think it's crap. Why do I post it then? Just figured I'd throw it out there for folks to chew on. Anyway, I seriously doubt Ortiz' legs could stand up to playing first base on a regular basis (he needs knee surgury as it is) and the Sox need to do whatever they can to keep him healthy. Also Youkilis has played very well defensively at first and I don't know how well he'd convert back to third with the glove. I think the Sox can trade Coco and get a cheaper 4th outfielder alternative. If 2004-2005 is any indication Theo will not make an emotional decision regarding Lowell. If the Yankees (or anyone else for that matter) swoop in with what he deems as an unreasonable offer financially, he'll let him go (see Martinez, Pedro and Damon, Johnny). Also keep in mind that Mike Lowell has pretty dramatic home/road splits: .373/.418/.575 at home versus .276/.339/.428 on the road. He's not terrible, but he certainly looks better from playing half his games at Fenway Park, and most of his games in the same lineup as Manny, Ortiz, Pedroia, Youkilis, and other good offensive players. Granted, he'd have both of those variables helping him again if he was with the Sox in '08, but so would another comprable bat.... Again, just my $0.02. I hope Theo shows some restraint and doesn't break the bank on this guy-- don't get me wrong he's a class act and a decent ballplayer, but he's not (IMO) irreplaceable.

I say offer Gagne arbritration. Worst case is he accepts and you're stuck with a pretty decent arm (albeit a guy who struggled) to set up Papelbon. If he declines, at least you get the compensation. For what it's worth, Mike Lowell (if he signs elsewhere) is a Type A free agent.

I've seen all the bad stuff written about Cabrera, and if the Marlins believe it they might be wise to move Cabrera now for the best package they can get. His value right now is extremely high: His weight hasn't hurt his production (yet). He's a bad defensive outfielder and destined to move to first (hurt in value). If they can try to strike before A-Rod/Lowell sign they can try to leverage all the teams looking for a third baseman. If they wait until after both Lowell and A-Rod sign they can pounce on the losers of that sweepstakes. The Marlins waited too long to deal Willis, for their sake it may behoove them to move sooner rather than later on Cabrera. Personally I think he'd cost too much in talent for the Sox to get, but there are more teams in need of a potent right handed bat than there are potent right handed bats out there... Just my $0.02