Bosoxwest

Scaff, great job. Always fun and informative to see these kids put in some context. One guy jumped out at me, and I know you've always been high on him - Socolovich. His peripherals are not awe-inspiring in low-A - what stands out to you for his future? Make-up? Is he going to get stronger as he comes back from TJ? Good profile in the bullpen? Just curious.

Like the deal if Gagne stays healthy the remainder of the season, and Beltre doesn't become the monster he could be. For now I'll just look forward to seeing guys flail at the change.

I live in SF and follow the Giants as my west-coast team, so let me chime in here for two seconds. (and I mean this in no way as an argument against posters who recall his more effective years and perhaps haven't seen him recently) If the Sox attempt to roll Armando Benitez out as our closer, much less give up anyone who might have the ability to someday get beyond A+ ball for him, I will douse myself in gasoline and cowshit, light myself on fire, and spend my last minutes on this earth screaming my undying love for Derek Jeter. There would be a ticker-tape parade in this town if Sabean managed to get rid of that worthless pile. He pitched 20.1 IP away from the windy, spacious confines of AT&T last year. In those innings he managed to blow 6 of 15 SvOs, had opposing hitters bat .291 against him, and gave up 5HRs for a sweet 1.8 HR/9 ratio. His K:BB rate was a steller 16:11 (overall, 31:21). He sucks.

Helton's OPS, 2004-2006 (in CO) 1.089 .919 .880 Manny's OPS, 2004-2006 1.010 .982 1.058 That is how it's different.

I think what is implied is that he has the stuff, but when he starts he tries to "save himself" for the longer road, so throws at say 85% in the first couple innings, then of course with decreasing returns as he goes through the game. The expectation is that one inning at 100% would by definition be better. Like you, I'll believe it when I see it. That said, who the f*** knows anything about relievers. 90% of them are a crap shoot from year to year, and as Schill points out, what were the options?

Take it with a grain of salt, but he had an OPS-against of .748 for his first 30 pitches thrown last year. My take on the FO's thinking is that he has decent stuff, but doesn't have the stamina to be a starter, so he a) doesn't let it rip when he starts and still gets tired and gets absolutely killed in innings 4-9. I'm as dubious about this as anyone but I'll paste in Schill's take (copied from SOSH at http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=13833&st=20) which gives me some hope: "The only thing I know is that two years ago I thought this guy had as lively stuff as anyone I had seen in a long time. He certainly did seem to tail off last year but during some of his games he showed the mid 90s electric stuff he had all the time a few years back. I thought, from the first day I saw him, that he was built to be a reliever with an incredible arm on a Gordon sized body. He'll gain a decent amount of velocity heading to the pen, if he can make the mental transition this guys a serious power arm on the back end. His curveball, when he's fresh, is a strikeout pitch, his fastball certainly is as well, but it was his changeup that wow'd everyone. Tremendous arm action, ball died without looking like it was slowing down. This, to me anyway, is a no lose signing. This kid gets in the right mix and environment and he ends up being that kid a few years from now people say "How the hell did we let him go?" I know he tailed off the last two years but I see no downside to adding someone with this good of an arm and some experience under his belt. I'm still pissed we didn't sign Rollie Fingers....Oh wait, he's not available. Market was sickeningly think for the top shelf stopper this winter, I think we'll find someone to save 42 out of 52 chances this year. We do that and I like our chances."

Scaff, you have to be a little disappointed in Moss's performance in the DWL, as he proved again that he is prone to long stretches in the bucket after a hot start. Granted, this was a long year for him, but still. How does this impact his standing as a prospect?

Again, I'll take Wheeler please, especially if we're dealing Coco. Wheeler's been lights out for the past three years running. I'd perhaps do WMP for Lidge. Lidge blew up last year, and for an easily explicable reason. I'll let Houston's Clear Thinker break it down: Brad Lidge: F Lidge (5.28 ERA/-6 RSAA) was one of the worst pitchers on the Stros pitching staff this season. It's not difficult to understand why -- he simply has lost his ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes consistently. As a result, hitters are laying off Lidge's slider and laying into his fastball, which Lidge does not locate well. Ever since his breakout performance in 2004 (26 RSAA), Lidge has been trending steadily downward (only an 8 RSAA over the past two seasons). The more consistent Wheeler now has a better RSAA than Lidge over the past three seasons and should be the closer going into the 2007 season. Although his trade value has plummeted over the past year, the Stros should definitely listen to reasonable offers for Lidge. It is looking less likely with each passing season that he will ever regain his dominating 2004 level of performance. http://blog.kir.com/archives/cat_sports_astros_baseball.asp

The first rule of Yellow Tooth Club is..... you don't talk about Yellow Tooth Club.

I'd like to see the Sox sign Adam Harben. Coming off TJ surgery but is just 23 and was a Top 10 pitching prospect of the Twins just a couple years back. 6'5" beast and had great K rates in the low minors. Got good ratings from BA and Twins scouts.

Interesting point from a briefing on the E.A and Pacific Affairs Six-Party Talks, strangely enough: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/77794.htm Clip: QUESTION: Chris, on the Matsuzaka issue, not confirmed but it does appear that a deal has been struck; Matsuzaka stepped in and made the deal happen. ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: He stepped in. QUESTION: It appears. ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: And was John Henry there as well? QUESTION: Larry Luchino and Epstein and Boras and Matsuzaka. ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: This is a terrific Christmas present. Thank you very much. (Laughter.)

This makes no sense. No offense intended, it just doesn't make any sense. Are you referring to the 2006 season? To put the Matsuzaka deal in perspective: even including the posting fee, we're paying him $11 Mil more (total) than what Houston gave Carlos Lee. And I'm betting we're all comfortable that he'll be significantly better than Carlos Lee. The Zito signing will be very interesting.

He Hate Me is accurate. Thursday AM, no deal, we should worry.

It's not optimal, obviously, but among the options in the fold right now, I guess I'd give Devern a look. Sox Prospects scouting report below shows that he probably has the stuff to compete. Most important, he seems less likely to commit the cardinal sin of the closer - the free pass. That said, it might be preferable to convince Tavarez that 2007 games can have 14 innings and have him close. Sox Prospects: http://www.soxprospects.com/players/hansack-devern.htm Scouting Report: Hansack is a lanky righty who throws a lot of strikes. His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball that sits around 92, a two seam fastball with some movement, a good low 80s change-up, as well as a tight slider which he utilizes as his out pitch. Good command of all of his pitches. Forceful delivery. Pitched in the Houston organization from 1999-2003, but was released in the Spring of 2004. In 2004 and 2005 he pitched in a Nicaraguan professional league, where he also had to work as a lobsterman to make ends meet. Hansack is of Creole heritage and speaks Creole, English, and Spanish. Signed by Ben Cherington. There has been some confusion as to Hansack's true age, as his birth year has been listed as 1978, 1980, and 1982, but Boston lists Hansack as being born in 1978.

Jorge Posada. He looks just like Mr. Potato Head. No, of course Bernie. The guy is simply all class.

I'm completely reversed here. Hansen's delivery was reportedly altered somewhat to reduce stress on his arm, and he never looked comfortable or threw the stuff he was touted as having. I don't feel at all comfortable that he'll adapt well enough to be an impact reliever in the near future. MDC on the othe hand was very productive early, but was hampered by a finger injury that affected his secondary pitches. He also was pretty unlucky according to BPs DH stat (11). If healthy he's advanced to the point where he should definitely contribute in 2007. The Yanks-Red Sox development argument is pointless. The Yankees spent years not caring about development and were pleasantly surprised by Wang and Cano. Cabrera is filler who benefited from a steady diet of fastballs by being in the NY lineup. Hughes will be their first work of art. Similarly, the Sox have been poor at development historically. Only Paps is truly special, although Ellsbury could be in the near future. Lester, MDC, Hansen and Pedroia should contribute, but probably not excel. Both teams have the resources and talent to field post-season ready teams, with the Yanks having a larger margin for error. This year, like every other, it will come down to playing the games.

You know, the Os could be going for pure entertainment value, and it could be genius. They already had Millar, they have Payton now; if they acquire Juan Gone and bring back Sosa this could be the craziest team in recent sports history. And I for one would welcome our psychotic division-mates.

Scaff, any scouting info on these guys? Any one of them stand out compared to the others?

Yeah, he pretty much sucked last year, due in no small part to a staggering 2.25 HR/9 rate. However, he was solid in 2005, and he's coming off nerve transposition surgery so could regain some of his effectiveness. Still don't think he'd be a good idea to close, but he may have some value.

Just for fun, I'll go out on a limb and predict that the following guys from the top 20 have long productive careers, and sprinkle in all-star appearances: Young (assuming no jail) Gordon Bailey ughes Wood Maybin Elbert Pelfrey Butler Longoria Braun Young A. Miller (DET) I tried to stay away from obvious injury risks (young P) but included Miller just based on body and mechanics. Anyone else? In a while I may go back for my lower number sleeper picks.

And, umm, Hinske put up an .896 OPS vs. LHP last year, in the AL East. It's pretty tough to find a guy who puts up a .900 OPS against anybody. Just sayin'.

Hairps over at SOSH did the keyboard work: Linky ...based on Pouliot's article at NBC Sports: http://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/420286/detail.html C: Toby Hall (Dodgers), Humberto Cota (Pirates), Miguel Ojeda (Rangers) 1B/DH: Ben Broussard (Mariners), Mike Lamb (Astros) 2B: Eric Bruntlett (Astros), Bernie Castro (Nationals), Andy Green (Diamondbacks) SS: Ramon Santiago (Tigers), John McDonald (Blue Jays) 3B: ??? OF: Brad Wilkerson (Rangers), Kevin Mench (Brewers), Bobby Kielty (Athletics), Jeff DaVanon (Diamondbacks), Larry Bigbie (Cardinals), Jody Gerut (Pirates), So Taguchi (Cardinals), Jayson Werth (Dodgers), Alex Escobar (Nationals), Terrmel Sledge (Padres), Jason Tyner (Twins), David Newhan (Orioles), Jack Cust (Padres), Aaron Guiel (Yankees), Hiram Bocachica (Athletics), Rick Ankiel (Cardinals) SP: Joel Pineiro (Mariners), Brandon Backe (Astros), Kyle Lohse (Reds), Shawn Chacon (Pirates), Josh Fogg (Rockies), Dave Williams (Mets), Zach Day (Nationals), Victor Zambrano (Mets), Kyle Snyder (Red Sox) RP: Chris Reitsma (Braves), Jorge Sosa (Cardinals), Scott Downs (Blue Jays), Brian Sikorski (Guardians), Grant Balfour (Brewers), Chin-Hui Tsao (Rockies), Jason Standridge (Reds), Chris Bootcheck (Angels), Brandon Duckworth (Royals), Randy Choate (Diamondbacks), John Parrish (Orioles), Greg Jones (Angels), Chad Durbin (Tigers), Javier Lopez (Red Sox), Chris Booker (Nationals) Hall has been discussed and mames obvious sense, and if Hinske is dealt there are some position player names here that would be of interest obviously. Lamb and Broussard stand out. Wilkerson of course would be great to have in any scenario due to his flexibility and ability to work the count (in spite of his dropoff last year). We maybe don't need a 5th OF but I still tend to think Mench can play everyday somewhere, and Davanon and Gerut will help somebody. I think Snyder will be resigned here (and Lopez cuz he's a LOOGY), simply because he still has upside. Other than Tsao, I don't see any pitchers on this list of whom that could be stated, except perhaps Balfour just based on his K rates. Discuss, if you will.

You'll have to define "special" because minimum 10 of the top 20 will have a real shot at becoming all-stars, health-willing.