Sox offensive predictions

[ksushi]

The reason everyone is coming through is because the FO actually did manage a good offseason. Loretta will be around .300 and if healthy Trot can hit .280, I've got no doubt about that its the health part that gives me doubts. Everyone else is just about right on par.

[example1]

before every yr, i too make offensive predictions so here they are

 

c-jason varitek

.280 avg, 20 hrs, 75 rbi, .375 obp, .865 ops

 

1b-kevin youkilis

.280 avg, 18 hrs, 70 rbi, .410 obp, .800 ops

 

2b-mark loretta

.300 avg, 30 2bs, 15 hrs, 70 rbi, 100 runs, .365 obp, .850 ops

 

ss-alex gonzalez

.260 avg, 30 2bs, 14 hrs, 75 rbi, .325 obp, .745 ops

 

3b-mike lowell

.260 avg, 22 hrs, 95 rbi, .355 obp, .845 ops

 

lf-manny ramirez

.310 avg, 35 2bs, 42 hrs, 155 rbi, .405 obp, 1.005 ops

 

cf-coco crisp

.290 avg, 35 2bs, 22 hrs, 80 rbi, 120 runs, .355 obp, .855 ops

 

rf-trot nixon

.280 avg, 30 2bs, 20 hrs, 80 rbi, .375 obp, .865 ops

 

dh-david ortiz

.310 avg, 45 2bs, 58 hrs, 180 rbi, .405 obp, 1.075 ops

 

I don't think Ortiz is going to post 180 RBI. That would be one of the greatest RBI seasons since Gehrig and Hack Wilson. That's a bold prediction.

 

If Gehrig was able to do it, then I suppose Ortiz could do it, but it just seems out of the rhelm of possibility in this day and age... we'll see, but 1.2 RBI per game seems a little lofty (I estimated the 1.2, it is at least 1+).

[example1]

 

Does anyone here do their homework before making predictions?

 

What do you consider to be adequate homework? Just curious Ksushi, nothing personal.

 

I think the Ortiz prediction was crazy. Manny is one of the best RBI men in the last 50 years, perhaps the best. His best season was an ABSURD 165 RBI. Papi probably won't do that.

 

I think the rest of those predictions were a LITTLE bit optimistic. What that means is that I think they are all good ceiling numbers. If every player plays to say 87% of their ceiling then those numbers might come out, but we have players in various states of ascention and decline, so it is optimistic to believe that all of them will produce at that level. Each of them COULD play as well as predicted (not counting Ortiz) but it is impossible to know which will and which won't. Some will. Some won't.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I can't hold this in. Here's my Sox projections (just HR and avg.)

 

Coco Crisp 24 HR, .311 avg.

 

Mark Loretta 14 HR, .296 avg.

 

David Ortiz 49 HR, .301 avg. (

 

Manny Ramirez 43 HR, .292 avg.

 

Jason Varitek 22 HR, .287 avg.

 

Mike Lowell 19 HR, .281 avg.

 

Trot Nixon 20 HR, .288 avg.

 

Alex Gonzalez 13 HR, .259 avg.

 

EDIT: Wow..I forgot Youkilis. 12 HR, .290 avg.

[ksushi]

What do you consider to be adequate homework? Just curious Ksushi, nothing personal.

maybe looking at Coco Crisp's home/away average, or his doubles, you know any of that before assuming the guy will post career low's when hes only improved in all categories while playing in a pitchers park for his whole career. Nothing too big.

 

I think the Ortiz prediction was crazy. Manny is one of the best RBI men in the last 50 years, perhaps the best. His best season was an ABSURD 165 RBI. Papi probably won't do that.

I agree with you... I don't think I said anything about Ortiz going that crazy. If had had to make an offhand prediction for Ortiz I would say he'll post a clutch .285 with 38 HR's and 120-130 RBI

 

I think the rest of those predictions were a LITTLE bit optimistic. What that means is that I think they are all good ceiling numbers.

I'll give this to you on Trot and Gonzalez, Lowell we can consider a wash because everyone has a different opinion about this guy. The rest you have to convince me on. I don't see .300 as Loretta's cieling, and I definetly don't think .280/20/75/.375 is out of the question for varitek at all.

 

If every player plays to say 87% of their ceiling then those numbers might come out, but we have players in various states of ascention and decline, so it is optimistic to believe that all of them will produce at that level. Each of them COULD play as well as predicted (not counting Ortiz) but it is impossible to know which will and which won't. Some will. Some won't.

Of course, this is always true with any kind of prediction. The reason we all bother to talk about this at all is because we think we can conjure a guess at what could happen or what we expect, but no one is saying this is written in stone. No one is trying to be nostradamus.

 

I expect that the Sox will hit the ball well, the specifics are up in the air, but this is speculation. What fun would baseball be without speculation?

[pats55sox45]

ksushi

 

i was originally going to post coco crisp at 50 doubles

then i looked at his numbers

in 2003: 15

in 2004: 24

2005: 42

yes, the numbers keep going up, but only one good yr of doubles

and you would think it would keep going up

as did i, until i did my homework

i realized wait a minute, the jake isnt a great hr park, but it is good for doubles and triples

so, i looked at his splits last yr

doubles:

home: 27

away: 15

 

i prob shouldve put his double projection at 40 though

away should be around 18

home should be 22

 

so let me take away 35, and put 40 instead

which will boost his ops a little too

 

 

 

(i also looked at renterias numbers, who i thought would have about 45 2bs last yr, but last yr he had his least amount of doubles in three yrs)

[ksushi]

yeah but he was an out of shape 29 year old (who i happened to think was good despite his crappy crappy year.)

[pats55sox45]

johnny damon

.300 avg, 30 2bs, 13 hrs, 80 rbi, 120 runs, .360 obp, .770 ops

 

 

my new edited

cf-coco crisp

.290 avg, 40 2bs, 22 hrs, 80 rbi, 120 runs, .355 obp, .855 ops

 

in other words coco will have a better yr than johnny

at a much lower price

 

AND the seperation will get greater as the yrs go on

[example1]

Here are my projections:

Crisp: .301, 16 HR, 80 RBI, .352 OBP, .832 OPS (105 R, 18 SB)
Loretta: .293, 10 HR, 65 RBI, .360 OBP, .815 OPS (89 R, 2 SB)
Ortiz: .301, 42 HR, 137 RBI, .393 OBP, .948 OPS (110 R, 0 SB)
Manny: .310, 39 HR, 130 RBI, .390 OBP, .953 OPS (114 R, 1 SB)
Varitek: .283, 19 HR, 83 RBI, .359 OBP, .889 OPS (68 R, 2 SB)
Lowell: .279, 17 HR, 85 RBI, .342 OBP, .781 OPS (71 R, 0 SB)
Nixon: .288, 17 HR, 83 RBI, .352 OBP, .827 OPS (61 R, 1 SB)
Youkilis: .305, 14 HR, 76 RBI, .372 OBP, .819 OPS (73 R, 0 SB)
Gonzalez: .262, 9 HR, 72 RBI, .321 OBP, 798 OPS (79 R, 2 SB) 

 

I also think Pedroia will get a call up by early-mid season (late May perhaps), and will:

 

Pedroia: .298, 2 HR, 42 RBI, .387 OBP, 843 OPS

 

I think about half of the above predictions are low, and maybe half are high. It should be somewhere in the middle.

[TheRivernator]

Rivernator, I think most of your predictions are fair...the only one I really disagree with is the Youkilis OBP of .360. He has an amazing eye at the plate and will be at least .390.

 

edit: Coco's numbers will also be much better than what you predicted...

 

and herein lies the problem of realism that got me ganged up on for the most part at the beginning. Goodbye for now guys....

[KeepTheFaith1229]

and herein lies the problem of realism that got me ganged up on for the most part at the beginning. Goodbye for now guys....

 

Realism? Do you HONESTLY believe Youkilis will record a .360 OBP? You really, really need to stop.

[example1]

Realism? Do you HONESTLY believe Youkilis will record a .360 OBP? You really, really need to stop.

 

Is 360 too high or too low?

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Is 360 too high or too low?

 

Too low...Youkilis is an OBP MACHINE.

[seabeachfred]

Pat, you just might a tad overboard with Ortiz. Man, let's not drop the house on him. He is not going to his 58 homers, but I will concede that Nixon, Varitek, and Lowell are all due to hit around 25 homers if they stay healthy, and it is possible one could hit more. As for Youk, if he gets enough at-bats he could hit between 15-20. He needs to play.

[riverside sluggers]

35 doubles from coco crisp? Really? He hit 45 last year in a pitchers park and he is coming to one of the best doubles parks in the league as a lefty ( fenway favors lefties in the doubles category because of that awful right field wall)

 

He's a switch hitter to boot, I believe 35 will be the least number he will have for 06

[kyahbean]

I have to agree about the pressure being on Coco. I mean, in all reality, they didn't actually expect him to be the next Johnny Damon...but he does have big shoes to fill. I hope he pulls through. :thumbsup:

[Jeff04]

Ya i agree with ya kyahbean there is a ton of people wanting Coco to have career numbers. People expect him to be a johnny damon in personality and numbers. I hope that he can take it and suceed, but we'll find out soon enough

[riverside sluggers]

and herein lies the problem of realism that got me ganged up on for the most part at the beginning. Goodbye for now guys....

 

 

Youkilis having an OBP higher than .360 is not realistic enough? In 2004 posted a .367 OBP, then in 2005 (though in limited time) posted a .400 OBP. In the least Id have him putting up a .370 or better for this season. He will also be inheriting Billy's #8 spot. The spot of the lineup thus far Youkilis has hit the best.

 

33 games, 22 for 74 (.297 avg) (.430 OBP) (.446 SLG) (.876 OPS)

[He Hate Me]

wow, i guess is what happens when Yankee fans dont go mucking into these preidction threads.

[Plumpamania]

code:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player POS BA OBP SLG HR EqA VORP FRAR

Jason Varitek C 0.271 0.361 0.477 27 0.284 38.8 -2

Kevin Youkilis 1B 0.258 0.368 0.421 18 0.274 21.9 3

Mark Loretta 2B 0.294 0.355 0.415 10 0.266 28.5 1

Alex Cora SS 0.261 0.307 0.368 9 0.232 6.3 1

Dustin Pedroia SS 0.299 0.365 0.458 14 0.281 39.6 3

Mike Lowell 3B 0.271 0.332 0.457 22 0.267 21.9 3

Manny Ramirez LF 0.296 0.386 0.571 40 0.314 51.1 -11

Coco Crisp CF 0.295 0.347 0.445 15 0.276 27.1 2

Trot Nixon RF 0.284 0.369 0.482 24 0.288 28.8 0

David Ortiz DH 0.292 0.384 0.578 40 0.314 57.1 0

 

Pitcher POS IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9

Curt Schilling SP 99.7 4.17 7.31 1.99 1.08

Josh Beckett SP 184.3 3.87 7.47 2.73 0.93

David Wells SP 151.7 4.79 4.33 1.19 1.13

Matt Clement SP 190.3 4.11 6.76 3.17 0.89

Tim Wakefield SP 203.7 4.65 5.83 2.92 1.15

Jon Papelbon SP 101.3 4.91 6.59 3.21 1.34

 

Keith Foulke RP 51.3 4.29 6.88 2.65 1.41

Craig Hansen RP 43.7 4.09 6.77 2.06 1.03

Bronson Arroyo RP 201.3 4.47 5.42 2.19 1.12

David Riske RP 54.3 3.57 6.81 2.82 1.16

Rudy Seanez RP 55.3 3.96 9.11 3.91 1.14

Julian Tavarez RP 64.3 4.33 5.32 2.66 0.84

Mike Timlin RP 65.3 3.98 6.48 1.93 0.96

[kyahbean]

Ya i agree with ya kyahbean there is a ton of people wanting Coco to have career numbers. People expect him to be a johnny damon in personality and numbers. I hope that he can take it and suceed, but we'll find out soon enough

 

I think people should be more realistic. To expect Coco to come in and be exactly what Johnny Damon was is a bit far fetched. Each player has their own strengths, and to put that kind of pressure on anyone is a recipe for disappointment.

[guapo34]

I think people should be more realistic. To expect Coco to come in and be exactly what Johnny Damon was is a bit far fetched. Each player has their own strengths, and to put that kind of pressure on anyone is a recipe for disappointment.

 

Coco was better than him offensively last year. He is also much younger. He is more likely to get better than worse. As for defense, the red sox seem to think Coco can be just as good defensively too. Neither player has an above average arm, but I'd have to think Coco's is stronger.

[kyahbean]

I hope so. I want him to be better than Damon.

[seabeachfred]

Hey guys, if you look carefully, Damon wasn't that much of a ball of fire in 2002 and 2003; decent numbers, yes, but nothing like 2004 and 2005. I think Crisp can best Johnny's numbers his first two years with the Red Sox. It all comes down to how he adjusts to a great hitter's park and whether he can handle the pressure of playing in Boston. My money says he can and ahe will.

[a700hitter]

He usually has one very good half and one half where he slumps badly.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

He usually has one very good half and one half where he slumps badly.

 

Damon or Crisp?

[yankeessuck013]

Damon

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Damon

 

Good.

[kyahbean]

Hey guys, if you look carefully, Damon wasn't that much of a ball of fire in 2002 and 2003; decent numbers, yes, but nothing like 2004 and 2005. I think Crisp can best Johnny's numbers his first two years with the Red Sox. It all comes down to how he adjusts to a great hitter's park and whether he can handle the pressure of playing in Boston. My money says he can and ahe will.

 

You make a good point and I'm inclined to want to agree. I think I'll wait and see before I take a stand either way.

[riverside sluggers]

To be fair. Johnny Damon's dropoff in the 2nd half was mainly due to the nagging shoulder injury he had played with through out the season. Which had started with his dive for a line drive hit by Orlando Cabrera. For his & Yankees sake, it should be healed up before this season starts.

 

2005

Pre-All Star, 81 games: (.343 avg) (.386 OBP) (.473 SLG) (.858 OPS) 23 Doubles, 5 Triples, 4 HRs, 42 RBIs, 9 SBs

 

Post-All Star, 67 games: (.282 avg) (.343 OBP) (.397 SLG) (.740 OPS) 12 Doubles, 1 Triple, 6 HRs, 33 RBIs, 9 SBs