Sox offensive predictions

[TheRivernator]

I said there would be a debatable post and here it is. I will go position by position with trends and predictions and we shall see how close I am by the end of the yr. I also think that this will help to show my stance on players and not give people a vague feeling that I am wavering, as it may appear. I do not consider myself unrealistic by any means and will gladly accept any back and forth on one of my predictions. I just did not want to have everyone think that i feel as if the sox will bottom out and not give any type of breakdown or proof. I have reviewed the stats and I think that the below predictions are a fair assessment of what should be expected in 2006. Feel free to disagree, also yankee ones will be coming soon too, but I need o be up at 4:45 and I want to go to bed, that will have to wait till tomorrow

 

Red Sox

C Jason Varitek- He has been very consistent over the past 3 yrs having an average season of .283 21HR 75RBI with a .858OPS. He actually strayed very little from these numbers in any of the last 3 yrs and with his physique, it is not unlikely that he would continue the pace. His major dropoff in the second half last yr (.301 to .256)is alarming, but then again he is a catcher and they get tired more than anyone. He is still one of, if not the, best catchers in the game and he should be continually consistent for at least this yr. Although age can always catch up to you at his position, but I think he will last for a few more before he seriously declines (like his yankee counterpart).

2006 prediction .285 22HR 75RBI .850OPS

 

1B Youkilis- I was surprised to see that he had only 79Abs last yr. His previous yr he had 208 Abs and nobody is sure whether he will perform like the guy he was in 2004 (.260/.361/.413/.774) or the guy in 2005 (.278/.400/.405/.805). He is billed as a solid eye guy and maybe on the light side as far as hitting. While I do not think he will be worth his weight as a 1b, I do not think that he will be a drag on the team. His 2005 numbers may be a little inflated by the low statistical power, but if he gets regular playing time, he might be able to stay comfortable and play well over his performance the past 2 yrs. BUT, if his history says anything, it is that he does not play well at the end of the yr, and that is something that could cause him to lose some playing time to battle tested JT Snow. Overall, I think the kid will play well and maintain a high OBP over 500ABs.

2006 prediction .275 10HR 55RBI .360OBP .790OPS- not stellar, but serviceable

 

2B Loretta- The guy is coming off major surgery on a significant baseball injury. He is also coming off his worst season of his life, he will be 35 and he was pretty much dumped by the padres. All these point towards one thing, IMO, he is on a downward spiral, or at least the scouts think so. His average last yr was 20 points below his career average and 55 points below his 2005 number. His SLG was 61 points below his career and dropped 148 points from 2004. His OBP last yr was 5 points below his career and 31 points below 2004. What does that all spell? He still has the on base ability, but he has absolutely no power. He was actually one of the most powerful and productive 2b’s in the game, with 70+ RBI’s in 2003 and 2004, but he only had half that in 2005. His age and his apparent lack of power make him look very pedestrian compared to his previous stature and make his predictions very cloudy. Also, what is worse is that he ended the year very poorly hitting .240 in the last month of the season, ruining the theory that he was improving and recovering as the season went along. My idea is that he ups the average slightly just due to the fens and his slg should improve a little due to the doubles he should get from the wall itself, but overall, he will be very similar to last yr IMO.

2006 prediction .285 5HR 45RBI .710OPS

 

3B Lowell- Another guy who just flat out sucked last yr compared to his norm. He dropped 34 points off his career average and 57 points off the yr before. His slg dropped by 145 points and his obp dropped by 61 points making his ops drop a grand total of 206 points off his solid 2004 yr. Also, just to abolish the thought of his recovering from what was a slow start, he had a putrid august and September hitting .207 and .246 in those months respectively. Seriously, this kind of drop in production is usually what you see when a power hitter loses it quickly, but you don’t expect to see it until 35 or so. Lowell will be 32 next yr and should still be in his prime. He should rebound a little in the fens, but I do not think he gets back to where he was in the past. Also, I am not sure there has been a player that had this bad of a yr without injury and go on to resume his career numbers. Hence why I predict that Lowell will not be as good as some hope he will be.

2006 prediction .245 15HR 65RBI .700OPS- an improvement, but not the Lowell of old.

 

SS Alex Gonzalez- one of the best defensive SS’s in the game, too bad he cannot hit for much. He actually had his best batting average since 1999 at .264, and that is not saying much. His power dropped a grand total of 18HRs and 51 points in slugging, but he showed more patience walking 4 more times over a smaller amount of Abs. Then again for a guy with a career sub.300 OBP, that is not good, but it is a start. Either way, he made a whole lot more contact last yr (45 less K’s), so he likely strayed from the all or nothing power that he had showed earlier in his career and decided to be more patient and make more contact. I am gonna go out on a limb and suggest that his average continues to rise slightly, but his power will likely stay the same.

2006 predictions .270 6HR 50RBI .700OPS

 

LF Manny Ramirez- Do I really need to break this one down? Just when everyone thought he had finally slowed down, he got extremely hot and finished extremely well last yr.

2006 predictions- .300 44HR 135RBI 1.000OPS

 

CF Coco Crisp- Bright lights and replacing a legend. Well, I hate to say it, but the kid better have a good solid set on him before reporting to his first fenway game, lots of pressure on this guy, His last 2 yrs have been solid with right around .300BA and .800OPS and he should eventually continue that in the long run. He was remarkably consistent throughout the season last yr going month to month and moving to an offensive park should help, although as a switch hitter, he will be batting lefty a lot and fenway is not a lefty hitting park. Either way, I expect him to take a dip this yr early and resume his career path from about mid season on, once he gets used to the pressure. So, I am predicting that his numbers drop a little off what he gave Cleveland, but I think that his numbers post AS break will be in the .300/.800 range that his career has consistently shown.

2006 predictions- .285 12HR 65RBI .780OPS (post all star predictions are .300 7HR 40RBI .800OPS)

 

RF Nixon- Back injuries are never pleasant and Trot had one hell of one to start 2004. He ended up finishing strong at the end once his quad and back healed and he was integral to the championship run, but his back proved that he could not sustain a full season of stress, as evidence by his hot start and ice cold finish of 2005. He does have something to prove in that he is in the last yr of his contract, but his back seemed to have robbed him of his power last yr as evidence by his 54 point drop in SLG from 2005 and his 132 point drop from 2004. After having 3 straight 20+ HR/80+RBI seasons from 2001-2003, his injury in 2004 made 2005 the first full season in over 5 yrs in which trot failed to reach 20 HRs or 80RBIs. Trot will be 32 in april and his lack of ability to hit lefties (.224 last yr) makes him a platoon player. I also would not be surprised if he leaves via trade before spring training, but either way, he is an enigma in that his power was lost completely last yr. I do think he has more power, but the average and OBP should stay about the same.

2006 predictions .275 18HR 70RBI .810OPS

 

DH David Ortiz- assuming his fat arse doesn’t break down, I am gonna be getting awful ornery whenever I see this guy come to the plate. Likely the most feared hitter this side of pujols on the planet, David Ortiz is a monster. I thought he was a 2 yr wonder and would eventually fade a little last yr and I was dead wrong. I wont make that mistake again. He will have another monster season. No need to break this one down as I will be hurling as I type this prediction.

2006 predictions .310 48HR 145RBI 1.010OPS

 

how’d I do?

[The Monster is my Mom]

Only one comment. How is Fenway not a lefty hitting park? True it is harder to hit home runs but many lefties have done very well there including Damon, Splendid Splinter, Papi, Varitek/Mueller (true they are switch hitters, but did well hitting left handed).

[mar_022]

You were generous giving Manny a .300 avg prediction, after he hit about .280 last year. I think gonzalez is beginning to put power and patience together. He had the power, and last year was far more patient. I expect the low pressure 9-hole to allow him to grow and raise his avg and rediscover some of his power -- more than 6 hr.

[VA Sox Fan]

As always mj, don't have time to read all that crap.....but good job!!!!

[Mr Crunchy]

Damon, Splendid Splinter, Papi, Varitek/Mueller

 

wade boggs mo vaughn yaz etc....

if the rivernator is from syracuse take his predictions with a grain of salt and hip waders for the ********

 

is that you mj?

if so fukin ayyyyyyyyyy i hate the yanks...hows the med racket?

[ksushi]

Your Coco predictions are way low. This is a guy who was in a real pitchers park last year who is a great doubles hitter. Fenway is a double hitters heaven, you might want to look at that one again. A guy who hits .320 on the road with 2 major league years of experience shouldn't be slated to have his average dip by 15 points the following year after a move to one of the best hitters parks in the league.

[Manny Goes Boom]

My only beef is I think Manny could get a few more RBI's, and you having Coco being at around .260 5 HR's, 25 RBI's and around a low .760 OPS at the All-Star break, but we agree to disagree I guess.

 

But really good work River...I'll be waiting for the Yankees predictions.

[ORS]

I think you are little pessimistic with Loretta and Lowell.

 

Loretta has injured the same ligament in his left thumb before. He did it hook sliding in 2001, and after his recovery he had the best two seasons of his career in 2003 and 2004. He hurt it diving into first last year. Both times he injured the ligament it was due to a collision, so this is no nagging injury. Suggesting his power is gone for good just isn't supported by the facts due to the fact that he recovered from the very same injury and slugged .495 while playing half his games in a huge park like PETCO.

 

Lowell did drop .036 points off his career BA. He also dropped .032 points off his career BABIP. PrOPS has him hitting .261 last year based on batted ball types. Both of those things suggest to me that he suffered from a stretch of some pretty rotten luck last year. Given his pull stroke, the fact that his contact numbers actually were better than his career average (6.74 AB/K career, 8.62 AB/K in 2005), and a move to Fenway, and I think Mikey will be alright next year. Certainly better than .245.

[MC Hammer]

Only one comment. How is Fenway not a lefty hitting park? True it is harder to hit home runs but many lefties have done very well there including Damon, Splendid Splinter, Papi, Varitek/Mueller (true they are switch hitters, but did well hitting left handed).

Agreed. It actually favors lefties. A short porch in right and and a big wall to smack those "would be fly outs" off. What more could you ask for as a lefty?

[Manny Goes Boom]

Agreed. It actually favors lefties. A short porch in right and and a big wall to smack those "would be fly outs" off. What more could you ask for as a lefty?

 

Another monster in right? :dunno:

[MC Hammer]

Another monster in right? :dunno:

No then it'd knock down some of your easier pull HRs like it does to righties

[yeszir]

I plan to be offensive to yankee fans. How's that for a projection?

[Manny Goes Boom]

No then it'd knock down some of your easier pull HRs like it does to righties

 

Good call. I never thought about that.

[guapo34]

I don't think you can say Fenway is generally better for righties or lefties. It really depends on the player. Wade Boggs was perfect for Fenway, because he was so good at going the other way. Mo Vaughn was another left handed hitter helped by fenway. Jose Canseco and Kevin Millar are good examples of righties who were better at fenway. Add Reggie Jefferson to the list of lefties. Righties that hit line drive home runs get killed cuz they lose Home Runs. Some think Manny is hurt by fenway. Leftie pull hitters are definately hurt. As is anyone who hits the ball alot to center.

[riverside sluggers]

lowell & Loretta are the only ones in this prediction list I just dont agree with. Lowell as a dead pull hitter moving from Dolphins Stadium to Fenway Park will just have a BA of just 9 points greater than 05's? Nothing wrong with us having some optimistic views, as the fact of how big of a change of ballpark he will now have for half of the season. At the least Ive got him pegged

.270-.280 avg, 35+ Doubles, 20-25 HRs, 75-85 RBIs (he's hitting in the 6th hole not the 9th, his fair share of men to drive home)

 

Loretta

.295 avg, .370 OBP, 30 Doubles, 12-16 HRs, 65-75 RBIs

[redsoxrules]

You were generous giving Manny a .300 avg prediction, after he hit about .280 last year. I think gonzalez is beginning to put power and patience together. He had the power, and last year was far more patient. I expect the low pressure 9-hole to allow him to grow and raise his avg and rediscover some of his power -- more than 6 hr.

 

manny actually hit 292 last year , i think its a pretty good prediction

[TheRivernator]

Only one comment. How is Fenway not a lefty hitting park? True it is harder to hit home runs but many lefties have done very well there including Damon, Splendid Splinter, Papi, Varitek/Mueller (true they are switch hitters, but did well hitting left handed).

 

Oh, I know that fenway has had its share of good lefty hitters, but it dimensions do not favor the typical lefty hitter in the rcf is gets extremely deep, extremely fast. That's all....

[TheRivernator]

I think you are little pessimistic with Loretta and Lowell.

 

Loretta has injured the same ligament in his left thumb before. He did it hook sliding in 2001, and after his recovery he had the best two seasons of his career in 2003 and 2004. He hurt it diving into first last year. Both times he injured the ligament it was due to a collision, so this is no nagging injury. Suggesting his power is gone for good just isn't supported by the facts due to the fact that he recovered from the very same injury and slugged .495 while playing half his games in a huge park like PETCO.

 

Lowell did drop .036 points off his career BA. He also dropped .032 points off his career BABIP. PrOPS has him hitting .261 last year based on batted ball types. Both of those things suggest to me that he suffered from a stretch of some pretty rotten luck last year. Given his pull stroke, the fact that his contact numbers actually were better than his career average (6.74 AB/K career, 8.62 AB/K in 2005), and a move to Fenway, and I think Mikey will be alright next year. Certainly better than .245.

I see your quote about loretta and I hear ya that he returned from it once before, but in the season following the injury (2002) he still had a composite OPS of close to .800 meaning he recovered well from it, and he was on fire as he was healing as evidence by his .831 post all star ops that season. For 2005, his OPS was .707, a career worst, and he had a .690OPS after the AS break, meaning he was getting worse as the season progressed. We can agree to disagree on this one, but this is not the same as 2001 IMO as Loretta is 5 yrs older now and that injury is a very debilitating one. Also, he rebounded well after 2001 and he progressed as he healed, which was not the case last yr.

 

For Lowell, well, I think BABIP is a useful stat, but it is not what I use for each and every player. Lowell is a power hitter and even if he had some bad luck on balls hit into the field, his luck at hiiing them over the field should be unchanges. Also, the idea of his ballpark playing into this is not relevant because his numbers prior to this yr were in the same park, so the stadium factor is not important in this one. Lowell is a power hitter and a guy who can get on base. Last yr he couldnt hit for power at all and he walked about the same, so something is up. Either way, his BA is not the stat that everyone should have been so worried about, it is his humongous drop in SLG and OPS, the bread and butter of a power hitter and those dropped precipitously....

[TheRivernator]

My only beef is I think Manny could get a few more RBI's, and you having Coco being at around .260 5 HR's, 25 RBI's and around a low .760 OPS at the All-Star break, but we agree to disagree I guess.

 

But really good work River...I'll be waiting for the Yankees predictions.

 

thanks buddy, Manny got a lot of RBI's because of the immense opportunities that he got hitting after papi and damon. I think his RBI chances will go down a little, so my prediction of his lower RBI total is not on him at all, just on a lessening of the chances as I think Coco will struggle initially.

 

For Coco, well, he has a LOT of pressure on him. Yankee fans knew he as available and will be razzing him and comparing him to Damon. The sox fans will be comparing him to damon and over the last 2 yrs, his numbers were very comparable to damon. But things change when pressure is applied. He might be very good and actually get better in the limelight, but also some guys crumble. While I think he will have a solid career in boston, I think it will start a little slow, that is all, then he'll continue his pace after a half season in the pressure packed ALE....

[riverside sluggers]

Yankee fans knew he as available and will be razzing him and comparing him to Damon.

 

Where did you hear that Cano or anyone was offered to Cleveland? If so, this is the first Ive heard about it as well as the fact that Cleveland is quite set at 2b/ss with Peralta & Belliard. Just saying because ive been tracking every rumor and didnt hear of a rumored Crisp to NY deal. Anyways the only thing I can compare him to Damon is that comparing their first 4 seasons in the majors, Crisp stacks up. Damon didnt get his high OBP until more experience in the majors. For pressure situations, Crisp thus far has excelled hitting when it counted this past September playoffs run.

[ORS]

I see your quote about loretta and I hear ya that he returned from it once before, but in the season following the injury (2002) he still had a composite OPS of close to .800 meaning he recovered well from it, and he was on fire as he was healing as evidence by his .831 post all star ops that season. For 2005, his OPS was .707, a career worst, and he had a .690OPS after the AS break, meaning he was getting worse as the season progressed. We can agree to disagree on this one, but this is not the same as 2001 IMO as Loretta is 5 yrs older now and that injury is a very debilitating one. Also, he rebounded well after 2001 and he progressed as he healed, which was not the case last yr.

 

For Lowell, well, I think BABIP is a useful stat, but it is not what I use for each and every player. Lowell is a power hitter and even if he had some bad luck on balls hit into the field, his luck at hiiing them over the field should be unchanges. Also, the idea of his ballpark playing into this is not relevant because his numbers prior to this yr were in the same park, so the stadium factor is not important in this one. Lowell is a power hitter and a guy who can get on base. Last yr he couldnt hit for power at all and he walked about the same, so something is up. Either way, his BA is not the stat that everyone should have been so worried about, it is his humongous drop in SLG and OPS, the bread and butter of a power hitter and those dropped precipitously....

For both of these players, if you believe that Chacon struggled on the road while in Colorado because how his pitches flew in his home park got into his head, then isn't it possible that Lowell's bad luck and Loretta's struggle post injury got into their heads as well? Lowell's teammates have been quoted as saying the the guy is fiercely competitive and pretty hard on himself, they also said that his struggles last year got into his head by mid-season. Loretta said something to the same effect about his return post injury. These guys still have the skills to play at a very high level, and they've had all offseason to refine them.

[He Hate Me]

For both of these players, if you believe that Chacon struggled on the road while in Colorado because how his pitches flew in his home park got into his head, then isn't it possible that Lowell's bad luck and Loretta's struggle post injury got into their heads as well? Lowell's teammates have been quoted as saying the the guy is fiercely competitive and pretty hard on himself, they also said that his struggles last year got into his head by mid-season. Loretta said something to the same effect about his return post injury. These guys still have the skills to play at a very high level, and they've had all offseason to refine them.

 

Well it should be easy to tell early on if they're cut out for the Boston media market where the scrutiny is much higher than Florida or SD

[ORS]

I see your quote about loretta and I hear ya that he returned from it once before, but in the season following the injury (2002) he still had a composite OPS of close to .800 meaning he recovered well from it, and he was on fire as he was healing as evidence by his .831 post all star ops that season. For 2005, his OPS was .707, a career worst, and he had a .690OPS after the AS break, meaning he was getting worse as the season progressed. We can agree to disagree on this one, but this is not the same as 2001 IMO as Loretta is 5 yrs older now and that injury is a very debilitating one. Also, he rebounded well after 2001 and he progressed as he healed, which was not the case last yr.

 

I looked it up and your timeline is a bit off. Loretta hurt his thumb in ST of 2001, had surgery, and returned to the team to find he'd lost his starting SS job 2 months later. They moved him to 2B, and in 102 games he hit .280-ish and slugged .350-ish. However, he got hurt again (fractured left leg - partially torn MCL when taken out by a sliding Juan Uribe) at the end of the season and had to rehab in the 2001/2002 offseason. This affected his start in the 2002 season (.267/.350/.359/.709 in 86 games) which promted a trade to Houston at the deadline. In 21 games for Houston he went .424/.481/.576/1.057. Then he signed with SD in the offseason and went .314/.372/.441/.814 in 2003 and .335/.391/.495/.886 in 2004. After his 2nd strain of the thumb ligament in 2005, he hit .280-ish and slugged .350-ish for 105 games to end the season. Only this time, he didn't suffer a fractured leg and torn MCL to end the season. This means he has had the entire offseason to hone his skills. I do not find the 102 and 105 games where he put up similar numbers post-thumb inury to be coincidental. The more I research this and think about it, the more it looks like SD cut bait too early and the Sox took advantage of their impatience. It is very likely that he is a monster for the Sox next year.

[ORS]

Well it should be easy to tell early on if they're cut out for the Boston media market where the scrutiny is much higher than Florida or SD

I find the line of though that Boston/NY media attention is too strong for some people to be a little overrated. What tends to happen is that if someone comes to one of these markets and struggles, they are shipped off by the end of the season. Then, when they bounce back with a new team, everyone says "they just couldn't handle the pressure". Their struggle is usually due to either injury, age related decline, or just an off year. There are very few players that go to either of these teams and play bad for more than 2 consecutive years, get moved elsewhere, and then find continued success; this is the scenario that must happen, IMO, in order to attribute pressure as the source of their struggles.

[Manny Goes Boom]

thanks buddy, Manny got a lot of RBI's because of the immense opportunities that he got hitting after papi and damon. I think his RBI chances will go down a little, so my prediction of his lower RBI total is not on him at all, just on a lessening of the chances as I think Coco will struggle initially.

 

For Coco, well, he has a LOT of pressure on him. Yankee fans knew he as available and will be razzing him and comparing him to Damon. The sox fans will be comparing him to damon and over the last 2 yrs, his numbers were very comparable to damon. But things change when pressure is applied. He might be very good and actually get better in the limelight, but also some guys crumble. While I think he will have a solid career in boston, I think it will start a little slow, that is all, then he'll continue his pace after a half season in the pressure packed ALE....

 

Yeah and you have Loretta not playin well either. I see your logic...and it makes sense, not saying I totally agree with it but its cool. We'll just have to wait and see...

[pats55sox45]

before every yr, i too make offensive predictions so here they are

 

c-jason varitek

.280 avg, 20 hrs, 75 rbi, .375 obp, .865 ops

 

1b-kevin youkilis

.280 avg, 18 hrs, 70 rbi, .410 obp, .800 ops

 

2b-mark loretta

.300 avg, 30 2bs, 15 hrs, 70 rbi, 100 runs, .365 obp, .850 ops

 

ss-alex gonzalez

.260 avg, 30 2bs, 14 hrs, 75 rbi, .325 obp, .745 ops

 

3b-mike lowell

.260 avg, 22 hrs, 95 rbi, .355 obp, .845 ops

 

lf-manny ramirez

.310 avg, 35 2bs, 42 hrs, 155 rbi, .405 obp, 1.005 ops

 

cf-coco crisp

.290 avg, 35 2bs, 22 hrs, 80 rbi, 120 runs, .355 obp, .855 ops

 

rf-trot nixon

.280 avg, 30 2bs, 20 hrs, 80 rbi, .375 obp, .865 ops

 

dh-david ortiz

.310 avg, 45 2bs, 58 hrs, 180 rbi, .405 obp, 1.075 ops

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Err, umm, yeah, p55s45, umm...your predictions are a little...let's say.. umm...optimistic.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Rivernator, I think most of your predictions are fair...the only one I really disagree with is the Youkilis OBP of .360. He has an amazing eye at the plate and will be at least .390.

 

edit: Coco's numbers will also be much better than what you predicted...

[ksushi]

Ortiz is the only one that is optimistic. I think hes conservative with almost everything else. Why does everyone think Coco won't hit .300? He did nothing at home last year because the Jake is a terrible hitters park and he still hit .300 because of how well he hit on the road, yet everyone thinks he won't be helped out by fenway? Can someone explain that to me?

 

35 doubles from coco crisp? Really? He hit 45 last year in a pitchers park and he is coming to one of the best doubles parks in the league as a lefty ( fenway favors lefties in the doubles category because of that awful right field wall)

 

Does anyone here do their homework before making predictions?

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I think Coco will be well over .300. The Papi one is the most optimistic but he has EVERYONE coming through. That's probably not going to happen.

 

But the Papi projection is just downright ridiculous. 180 RBI?