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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    In the reference to MVP's remark about Duran, it's a real easy call, if you know he is going to be a 0.4 bWAR player again. But if he reverts to 3.0, and we sign Aroz for $66M/3, and he gives us a 2.0, then it is a disaster.
  2. JoeBrady
    I was using OPS+. I used .720 for Arias since he had no OPS+ to use as a reference.
  3. JoeBrady
    Yonkers Raceway use to put on concerts, and for whatever reason, I just didn't go. Three Dog Night was one of them, and they are a great band.
  4. JoeBrady
    Mead had a .500 OBP which we desperately needed, as well as a 300 Rdrs/yr. Ceddanne, Abreu & Durbin combined only had a 58.
  5. JoeBrady
    My wife and I saw Sir Paul at Yankee Stadium. I think I paid about $125 each, but they gave serious discounts for people that held season ticket plans. My only regret was that I didn't ante up for the tickets on the floor, though I'm not sure my wife would've liked being that close. They don't do many, if any, concerts any more. Once upon a time, they'd have concerts after the game. So I go to see Billy Joel for $0. It was a short concert, but the Song/$$$ was very strong. Fireworks was a really strong offering as well.
  6. JoeBrady
    It feels good to not have every GB be an adventure.
  7. JoeBrady
    I'd be surprised if he didn't hit. Not like he did this year, but I see no reason he won't hit. The fielding, I don't know.
  8. JoeBrady
    Until this season, I'd agree. But I don't remember anyone waving at outside curves. Still looks like an athlete, but opposing pitchers are stealing his lunch money.
  9. JoeBrady
    Nicely done! Nothing for the forum's Accountant of the Year award?
  10. JoeBrady
    But just to clarify, you do agree that Crochet, Story, Duran, and Anthony underperformed by 16.9 bWAR from their 2025 numbers, and, you do agree that the 2026 additions of Contreras, Durbin, Gray, Bennett & Suarez, combined for a 14.8 bWAR? I just need to make sure my abacus doesn't need new batteries.
  11. JoeBrady
    It's somewhat of a guessing game, and by suggesting that 8 batters should be > 100 OPS+, it doesn't mean they will. But here's my reasoning (with all due respect to homerism): Rutschman Career 114 & 2026 109 Contreras 122/153 Mead 97/132 SS Durbin 101/101 Anthony 126/108 Ceddanne 97/113 Abreu 118/117 Yoshida 109/111 Mead & Raffy are the only guys that have a career OPS< 100, but they both had very good years in 2026. When FG updates its DB for 2027, I'd be surprised if any of the 8 project to under 100.
  12. JoeBrady
    No one will admit it, but between his salary and the draft pick, imho, it was an overpay.
  13. JoeBrady
    I go back to that all the time. I wouldn't have cared much if they had traded Duran, and I offered several suggestions. But the idea of keeping him was perfectly logical. Except for the half of the fans that knew he'd go from a 4.9 bWAR to a 0.4.
  14. JoeBrady
    Yup, it won't happen. Suzuki & Gray probably go for $50M+. We have about $19M left before we reach our 2026 spending level. We could clear another ~$18M by DFA'g Duran, Houck & Crawford, but that might be short-sighted. If we DFA'd Duran, we can afford the $25M DH or the $25M #2 type SP.
  15. JoeBrady
    What Joe Brady will tell you is that his off-season acquisitions were great. And that it was the carry-over guys that brought the team down. Just circling back to the videotape, my recollection is that you were fairly gung-ho on keeping Duran, and I think (not sure) you wanted to keep Story. And I will assume you wanted to keep Crochet & Anthony. And what was our biggest problem (IMO)? Duran, Story, Crochet & Anthony, with a collective 1.4 bWAR, after having accumulated 18.3 bWAR in 2025. But according to your calculations, the issue WASN'T the decline of 16.9 bWAR from our big-4. The decline was due to the 2026 additions of Contreras, Durbin, Gray, Bennett & Suarez, with a combined 14.8 bWAR?
  16. JoeBrady
    I don't think an OPS of .720 is some type of wild-eyed expectation for the #2 prospect in baseball. But I only said it was possible, not a sure thing.
  17. JoeBrady
    I would've made the move, but not straight up. FG projected Paredes for a 5.8 WAR for 2026-27. And they projected Duran for a 9.8 for 2026-2028. Given the fact that Anthony was coming off of an injury to close out 2025, as well as Yoshida, there was every reason to think we'd need Duran.
  18. JoeBrady
    I could've included Mayer, but while I endorsed him starting, it's not unreasonable to think he could under-perform. If the season goes down because he didn't perform, then that's a bench-strength type problem. When you loose guys like Crochet and Anthony, those guys are very difficult to replace.
  19. JoeBrady
    Looking from a slightly different perspective, all our starters project to > 100 OPS+, except SS. And it is still possible for Arias to have a .719+.
  20. JoeBrady
    Have you ever considered that this isn't necessarily a bad thing?
  21. JoeBrady
    All the top teams already do that, within the constraints of their payroll. Just because Mil had gotten knocked out several years in a row doesn't mean that they weren't willing to do whatever they could do to win.
  22. JoeBrady
    It is one more series for most teams. That's kind of a sizeable difference. But you get points for mentioning the most underrated b-ball player of all tiem.
  23. JoeBrady
    IMHO, it is the same thing. Even people that devote their lives to honorable not-for-profit work, probably still want to be recognized for that honorable work. Certainly not everyone, but they certainly exist. This is off-topic, but imho, this is why people become day-traders, or house flippers, or invest in bit coin. It's not just to make money, but to have a story about how they made their money. Saying that you're a day trader has a lot more cache than saying 'I'm a 9-5 accountant who invests in low-cost index funds'. It's probably more lucrative, but a heck of a lot more boring.
  24. JoeBrady
    The use of math is not an excuse. You seem to think that wanting to win is something that you are interested in. Everyone in here wants to win. They just have different opinions of how to do so. I just read something recently about "I was just reading an article about how minds that work like this, develop rules/hard conclusions and run everything by those , are not great minds.".
  25. JoeBrady
    It's not just the rich. Of the use of status symbols, Wolfe has said, "I think every living moment of a human being's life, unless the person is starving or in immediate danger of death in some other way, is controlled by a concern for status." I read this probably 30 years ago. I believed it then and I believe it now. Everyone wants something that looks good. A faster car, a nicer house, BB cards, coins, a nicer garden, a better degree, a higher ranked school, either for themselves or their children.
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