drewski6

It may be rare to have your best years after age 31, but dont let people move the conversation on you. Thats not the debate. Marte has 2 top 5 MVP finishes, and a third year (last year) where he got votes (but was not in the top 5). Over the last 3 years, he has the HIGHEST OPS among 2b (all of them), and even if a little decline, he's still very much a weapon and still very much one of the best hitting second baseman and hes adequate with the glove. Simply put, he doesnt have to have a career year for him to help us. Some people just look at WAR, age and salary and just want youngest/cheapest. But this overlooks the fact that you have a finite number of roster spaces and at-bats. You always pay a premium for stars, and of course, having the best players is highly correlated to winning. Otherwise, theyd be detriments. You should be willing to pay more to go from a 30 value guy to a 40 value guy than to go from a 5 value guy to a 15 value guy, because stars win. Heres my point: Lets say someone is worth 40m and is signed to a contract that pays them 30m for the next 3 years. Thats 10 excess value / year x 3 years = 30 excess value. Lets say that dude is 32 , so could even regress a bit. But hes still awesome at present.. Yes, this dude and his 30 excess value is worth more than 5 guys who are all 20m in value paid 10m over lets say 5 years. While those guys if you add them up give you more value for each buck spent (and are younger) that excess value is nerfed because its spread out. ANother words, if you have an 8 WAR superstar signed for 3 more years and trade him for 2 separate players with 4 WAR each (signed for 3 more years), you are not better off. If you flip him with 2 separate dudes who are 3 war players and signed for 4 years each, sure you are getting more WAR but you are spreading it out among the more players, more years and thus diluting it. Its too simplistic to just look at age and WAR and salary. Younger and cheaper isnt always better. More WAR for the buck isnt always better either. Any GM would rather have a 40m value guy making 30m than a 15m value guy making 1m. Because one is a superstar and elite talent and will carry you further, especially with roster size constraints. You dont trade a 40 HR bat for 5 10 HR bats and act like you gained 10 HRs. Thats not how it works, obviously.

Not bad but personally, Id rather just pay the extra 5m, and keep abreu and yoshida in lieu of Bader. Partly because injuries are so pervasive these days, and even if there isnt a spot for Yoshida right now, theres a good chance that in Aug/Sept we're in a dog fight for a playoff spot and we have a few injuries , some to our better hitters and Yoshida is hitting like 4 of 5 and doing decent.

I like this guy

Oh for sure.

Good for you, at 41 Im also aging in reverse. Drinking less and working out more.

Tolle and Early are hard to part with , for sure. I can see it falling apart because Marte is unique/special, so they prob feel justified insisting on one of our top 2 pitching prospects vs one of our top 5 pitching prospects. I can also see the Sox holding on to the pitchers for the reasons you mention. One thing Im not sure, is how close Arizona sees themself. If they are looking to get back to playoffs immediately, they could have interest in somone like Sandoval/Cutter K , especially if we eat money. Of course would have to include Harrison or something. But yeah, I can see it falling apart.

And in 2023? In 2023, Valdez was supposed to win 2b from Christian Arroyo. Arroyo got hurt for a month or 2 in the early season, leaving the position open for Valdez. Sox traded for (or claimed) Reyes for depth. Adding a waiver wire add in Reyes should have been of no concern to EV. Also, around that time, Kike went to absolute crap with the failed SS experiment, and Sox really had no middle infielders. So should have been wide open for EV to claim one of the vacant MI roles like he was expected to. But despite our middle infield going from from Arroyo and Kike to nobody, EV still couldnt grab a spot. The Sox soon after claimed Yu Chang, and EV found himself sitting most nights in favor of 0 offense Chang and AAAA Reyes. Then Arroyo came back from injury forcing the sox to make a move, so Valdez was sent packing to AAA as the sox elected to keep Reyes, Chang, Arroyo, and Kike as their MI rotation. Sox and fans wanted 23/24 yr old Valdez to grab a spot and not look back and gave him ample opportunity, but he couldnt out play Reyes (or even Chang) and was thus sent back to Worcester upon Arroyos return until Sept 1 roster expansion. None of these jokers were with the team by the end of 2024. Understood they tried again with Valdez at various points in 2024, but the luster was gone and it was more of a Hamilton situation where hes getting called up and hanging around due to lack of other options and maybe he even filled in for a spell, but nobody actually considered him a starter or on a path to eventually become a starter. That hope died in 2023 when he Valdez couldnt win a job against either pablo reyes or yu chang. And thus the complimentary piece in the deal (Abreu) became the headliner. And the dude who we thought was the headliner (Valdez) became.....honestly Im not even sure? He in Japan?

I dont think Id put Duran in the top 3 of players that RS fans seem to overrate but sure prob overrate him compared to non RS fans, sure.

Rats

Im not sure I want more than 70/80 PA's from Casas.

And then he lost his spot to pablo reyes (womp womp)

You think theyll get Tucker?

Correct, if this is how its going to look, and its a real possibility - then you simply cannot swap out Duran for Rafaella. Even if you swap Marte for Bregman.

To expand, we shouldnt need a large sample of results to assess these kids. Its not like their value is "?" until they show you what they are. We have scouts/coaches/baseball scientists if you will/ we are supposed to have the baseball minds in the world. Or among the best. You have to trust the calls of the people you pay to make such calls. They should be able to look at 20 different prospects and grade out which ones have the highest likelihood of becoming stars , which ones will be useful but not stars, which ones are unlikely to stick in the majors. The scouts wont be right 100% of the time, but if they are right more than wrong , you trust them. And if they are wrong more than right, you can em. But to act like every prospect without a body of work in the MLB is on equal footing is just not true. Gotta be willing to stick your neck out there. Gotta be willing to be wrong. Gotta be able to assign value to each prospect and keep/flip them accordinly without the benefit of the results. Anybody can look at a body of work and parse the good results from the bad ones.

Even about your singing voice?

If these are our only offensive additions, I honestly like it a lot more with Duran in for Rafaela. I know Im in the minority, but I feel like fans love beautiful defense, and it tends to get overrated. If you are getting similar value for Duran and Rafaela, take under consideration thats 2 years of Duran vs 3-4x more for Rafaela, and if teams are offering as much for either, that means that for the next years they think Duran is 3-4x the player that Rafaela is (including defense), and I wouldnt disagree. If Cedanne takes another step forward at the plate, thats a different story. But A+ defense out of Cedanne wiht a .700ish OPS is not winning as many games as B- defense out of Duran with an .800ish OPS. Now if you replace Bregman with Alonso, I may flip and prefer to keep Cedanne over Duran. Im trying to balance offense vs defense. I guess my point is that people put Cedanne off limits, and I dont agree with that. Although I am sympathetic to the argument that we're perennially dead last in defense so why trade our defensive ace. But I can see Cedannes bat taking a step back, like JBJs did, although I did demand that Moon show me Cedannes 1st/2nd half splits (so lazy of me, sorry Moon). And they were way more even than I thought. So maybe , Cedanne .710ish OPS is here to stay but Im not sold. Im also not sold that hes not going to play infield. Which Im more open to than most, as long as its SS not 2b (put your best defender at SS where the most balls are hit, and while i dont have confidence in his bat, I think Cedanne would be the best defensive SS in the AL with 1 weekend of practice) Anthony, Bregman, Okamoto, Abreu, Story....I like it more with Druan .....Okay wait, stop. I just now realized you do have Duran in your lineup and you have a DH rotation and no Yoshida. Well, now Im like shoot I already wrote all that and do I delete or just hit send even though my entire thought is abouthow I dont hate your lineup but I think it needs Duran when you already have Duran in there. Backed myself into a corener on this one.

Hint received, I need to get back to the gym myself.

Yeah......menopause (giggles to self)

The blurb I posted makes him look good, agreed.

Thats just AI auto generated, what I posted, looks good though. I agree Hugh, if someone is coming over with an ugly k rate, thats scary and unlikely to get better facing MLB pitching when he was whiffing vs lesser pitching before. But I dont love chasing low k rates, because I dont want a team of luis arraez's. Just super short , half-swings. Youll make a lot of contact, but youll also be a singles machine. But according to what I posted. Okamoto rotates his hips, has a swing on the longer side (which is in as "new school" as opposed to "shortest swing possible" - which is old shcool), so Im intrigued. Like I always say, its a lot about where the contact is being made. I want a hitter who makes contact with the ball in front of the plate, not someone who lets the ball get super deep and makes contact over the back half of the plate. Im very much a new school hitter. That comes with more strikeouts, because Im committing to my reads, so I will get fooled from time to time on a well tunneled slider (and I do). Ill also get fooled from time to time on a curveball in the dirt because Im commiting to what I think I see, and if the ball makes a late break, then I tip my cap at the pitcher and take my K. But overall, I have better results then dudes who are super hesitant, try to drive counts, try to foul, wait until the last second to start their swing, make contact over the back half of the plate. Theyll strike out less, but they will also have less homeruns and gaps. And they wont punish mistakes at the rate I do. Youll never get a "get me over" pitch past me. Im always hunting. And Im always ready to let the bat fly.

Hitting Profile Power: Okamoto is a slugger who hit at least 30 home runs in six consecutive seasons in NPB (2018-2023), with a career high of 41 in 2023. He is known for having above-average "game power" and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Contact & Discipline: A key aspect of his hitting profile is his ability to make consistent contact and limit strikeouts, a trait that sets him apart from other NPB power hitters like Munetaka Murakami. He has good bat-to-ball skills, limits "chase" swings outside the strike zone, and remains aggressive on pitches in the zone. His strikeout rates in Japan have generally been well below the MLB average. Approach: He is considered a "polished hitter" with a mature approach at the plate. He does particular damage against fastballs and has shown strong results against off-speed and breaking pitches as well. Batted Ball: Okamoto employs a long, rotational swing with a leg kick that is designed to lift and pull the ball, which helps him maximize his home run potential.

Because Tony would let the ball get deep and wrist it oppo over the third basemans head into the corner for doubles all day.

Of course, the exception is Tony Gwynn. But I dont think these guys are Tony Gwynn. Roman might be though.

You speaking of Murkami, but Im speaking on Okamoto. Murkamis k rates are alarming, but completely irrelevant to that - if we are going to target Okamoto because he doesnt strike out - my first question is why doesnt he strike out. Is it because he chokes up on the bat, lets the ball get deep, super short swing? Is he Luis Arraez? If you are not striking out because you are good at picking up spin, getting the bat to the ball, Im impressed. If you are not striking out because you are choking up, going oppo, letting the ball get deep, Im not impressed. Avoiding Ks isnt what it use to be. I want guys who are confident in their reads and try to hit the ball. Not dudes who are scared of striking out and keep the bat on their shoulders until the last second only to foul off meatballs or best case , slap a ball through the infield. If you make contact on the back half the plate , youll strike out less, but you wont drive anything. Meet the ball out in front. Drive it. If you can do that WHILE minimizing Ks , Im in.

No way hes coming for a 2yr commitment. 4 years at 17m each is my best guess. Whether or not I would, im not sure as I dont know about him, but I dont chase low k rates because there are multiple ways to bring your ks down. If hes shortening up / letting the ball get deep, and making contact that way - huge pass. If hes meeting the ball out front, committing to his reads, pull-approach but still limiting Ks and can defend the position, hes well worth 17m/yr.r Budget getting tight tho.