drewski6

Team penalties (draft picks moved back) start at 284. No way we sign Breg and stay under 264 without moving money. And no, im not willing to start making bad trades to get under it. Payroll gonna have to be higher than 264. IF you can get Bregman down to 30m CBT hit, that puts us at 273.44, So the excess charge for being above second threshold (264) will be about 1m (calculated as follows: the only thing the 264 does is increase dollars spent thereafter from a 30% tax to a 42% tax, so if we are at 273(ish) thats 9m above the second like, so that 9m is taxed at 42%, but it would be taxed at 30% if the second threhold never existed) So pretty much that second threshold existing costs an additional 1m. I dont thik its a must be under number. Again, the baseball penalties start at 284. I can see 274 after Breg. And I can see them picking up a reliever for 6 on top and going in at around 280.

Sure but after what year is the option year? After yr 5? Sure. After yr 4? Maybe but the AAV will have to be high. After yr 3? I dont see him taking a 3 yr deal with a team option for yr 4, regardless of AAV or buyout, but I could be wrong. Id offer it , for sure. 3 @ 40 , with enough deferred to make the CBT hit low 30s, opt-out after each year, 4th yr team option at 30m with a 12.5m buyout That would be 132.5 guaranteed but after accounting for deferrals like 112.5 in guaranteed. I know I proposed the 3 yr deal originally, but I was half serious. I dont think any of these get it done. I dont think Bregman sees Schwarb and Alonso pocket 150m guaranteed and settles for less. I think its going to be 5 around 165 (maybe even 6, 190) with significant amount deferred and full no -trade. If youd rather do 4+ team option with large buyout, I think you still need to get above 150m guaranteed. So maybe 4 @35 , but with a team option for yr 5 @ 35 but with a 15m buyout (155m guaranteed), full no trade. Its an offer, Id even call it aggressive. Its not one I jump at if Im him though. Not saying I dont come around and take it, but its not an "OMG, got my bag! LETS GO!" Its a good offer, though.

Anecdotal. Weak. Also, the fact that one person switched suppliers over a miniscule difference in cost does not dispute my submission that not every company is out there purely to max profits. Mine isnt.

theres other concessions we can make to replace the opt-outs if he doesnt want it. Didnt we offer schilling help selling his house lol IF Bregman starts deferring money to help the team get under the second threshold, NTC at minimum.

I also think staying below the second tax line is a preference not a requirement

How much runway until that third threshold? If we have like 35m until that threshold, then signing Bregman at 40m , we can get under that amount by deferring (like last contract) I think hes open to deferrals, I think he opted out because he wants more than 2 yrs guaranteed not because he wanted to axe the deferrals.

I think its going to be 5/180(ish) with enough deferred that it feels more like 5/150(ish). To compensate for the deferrals (which help team), there will also be concessions from the team (to help Bregman). 1. No trade clause 2. prob opt-outs but not every year. Maybe 1 opt-out after yr 3.

Your daughter sounds awesome.

125/5 is a non-starter. 125/3 is more likely

2 WAR players are getting qualifying offers (22m). So , if we are trying to simplify, 1 WAR = 11m. I'll accept a 15 WAR projection for Bregman over next 5 years (avg out to 3 / yr). Thats 33m/yr. 33*5 feels reasonable to me, not sure if it gets it done , though. For me, if I read right now "Red Sox sign Bregman for 5 yrs / 165m" , I'd be celebrating.

Ill settle down , dad

Your homophobia, boot-licking, and fascist streak is what bothers me, not your facts.

Apologies, my intention was not like a forum etiquette tsk-tsk. I did not intend to comment on how you reply or use the quote features or anything like that.... I just know that when I was brand-new here, I would mix up posters, and it took a little while until I could keep everybody straight. For example: Moonslav said along the lines : I would love for them to spend more, but I want them to be smart about it , another Yoshida contract doesnt help. This is not the same as someone else here who says things like: "JH worked hard for his money, and its his business and why should he have to spend. I love himmmmm and if it wasnt for billionaire greed, I wouldnt have my cell phone. God bless the billionaires, I hope one of them sees this and gives me a nice little pat on the head. May I lick your boots." These 2 beliefs are not the same, but they may say things that overlap.

WRONG. Gifts from employers, bonuses, profit-share (even when none of which are required or in a contract) are a real thing in the real world. Some companies give back and invest in communities. Some companies want people who give them their work-lives to be compensated generously. And its not all for PR/business reasons. Sometimes, people are generous for the sake of being generous. JH has raised wealth beyond his wildest dreams, and he should "give back" more than he does (and not even just by spending on the red sox). Now i know theres ample propaganda out there that would have the gullible gullies believe that every generous act has a motive....but some people give back for no other reason than kindness. A good deed done to get into heaven or PR or because its good business or tax write off is NOT a good deed at all. Some of the most generous people in our lifetimes are villainized by greedy pigs because such generosity makes greedy pigs look bad. See people like you who would run a business "LESS FOR EMPLOYEES, JACK UP PRICES, MORE FOR MEEEE" (pathetic), you're out there, but you're not everybody. You just like to believe everyone thinks like you so you can convince yourself that you are not especially terrible.

If you have long shot playoff hopes, but still some hopes (lets say 20% likely), its better to go on 10 day losing streak right before the deadline then right after. So you dont waste chips on a rental, jsut to be out of it 10 days later, or miss your window to move an expiring contract in a dead year

So many things run through my mind, as I read this, and only some of them are on point. "If you go through the Realistic View 3 thread from 2022" Drew: I didnt do HW at Bentley, not gonna do it for you (sorry, no offense). "certain poster" Drew: I see you as a leader 'round these parts, and Ive been wondering if I should "certain poster" when Im talking about someone specifically. If I say "certain poster" and something negative follows, Im talking about JoeBrady 100% of the time. But sometimes other people think Im talking about them or referencing them. And Im not 100% if I should disguise my JoeBrady dislike for civility purposes or if that makes me a mealy-mouthed twerp and I should instead just say who I am talking about as opposed to codifying "At the beginning of July, the same poster said the '22 squad was almost as good as the '21 squad and that they just needed a similar trade deadline to get them over the hump." Drew: Now im in the way back machine, remembering Moonslav going back and forth with this one other poster in the BDC days for 10+ pages over who said what and what was a miquote, and "sullying my good name" but my thoughts on that kind of stuff is nobody really keeps score, and most posters just respond to the post based on the four corners of the post and its not like we're battling over reputation points or something. Every time Im about to write a "how dare you say I said that, I never said that:....I pause and realize the only person who cares about me being misquoted is me "I spent most of the previous offseason posting that the team needed a fire sale and to deal off all the expiring contracts. Nobody liked that." Agreed 100%. Im a pick a freaking direction guy. I wasnt here, but I remember talking with my uncle about it when we were hanging on a fam trip in Fl. Right around this time. And I was like buy or sell, but I think Id rather sell, but plz dont do both. I think 2022 was the year that we fell apart like right after the deadline, and I remember thinking, if we were going to fall apart why couldnt it have been 3 weeks ago (cuz then we prob would have sold). But we were like hanging on, and it looks like the wheels were coming off (leading to the deadline), and I was leaning sell, then the wheels came off completely like right after the deadline and Im like darn! Thats kind of worse case scenario. I think that was 2022.

welcome to the internet

The ole I was just joking, but was I? song + dance

What if we offered Bregman......THE EXACT SAME DEAL 3 yrs / 40m each, but deferred enough so it brings it down to like 32m in real money with an opt-out after each year. He gets rewarded for opting out because he gets an extra year guaranteed (had he not opted out he would have had only 2 yrs remaining) Im not sure he takes it, but I run it past him....Jokingly at first, but if I sense he's actually considering it, then I start the "way, maybe this isnt such a silly idea"

Yeah , also we werent in the room To me, I would consider the lead-up , was there someone who we really liked for more money , but wouldnt pony up and fell back to yoshida because he was cheaper and we were willing to overlook red flags...Because I would rather get the guy we wanted for 22m then the red flags guy for 17m. Or did we love the player we thought yoshida would be, take a risk, and flop. To me the latter would be more excusable, but then I have questions like "had you ever seen him throw?" but aside from that - this kind of stuff matters to me.

Im not a doctor with his medicals in front of me. If he looks like a healthy 32, we are damned if we dont (IMO) If his body show signs of breaking down, thats a damned both ways thing. If we sign Bregman to 5, and hes healthy (and the RS are generally healhty) for the first 3, nobody is going to regret it. WEll, Im not. What I would regret is if yr 1, bregman gets hurt, yr 2 crochet gets hurt and maybe one other injury so the year is lost, yr 3 bregman starts showing serious decline Because then we've got 0 playoff contributions out of him. But if we make the ALCS and lose in yr 1 (with Bregman contributing), win it all in yr 2 (with bregman contributing), fall short in yr 3 but a good year (with bregman contributing) - you dont lose on the deal, even if you pay him 30m in yrs 4/5 and he regresses there Its kinda high risk / high reward

Im not upset we signed Yoshida. I see his contract as underwater but Im not over here boo-hoo'ing that theres a better use of the money. He doesnt seem like a bad person, and Id rather him have the money that JH has paid him than JH. I dont blame Yoshida, and I honestly dont think the tax line is as important as people here think. Im not an avoid underwater contracts at all costs kind of guy. Im sure most WS winners have an underwater contract or a contract that will one day underwater If you never take a risk that goes sideways, you arent taking enough risks. Im not upset we took the risk.

Im not

I'm not not asking them too though But like Moon says and its important, cant spend to spend. But me personally, Im okay with payrolls ballooning and certain years and shrinking in others. Like Ive said in the past, if I was a GM and had a budget of 1b/5 yrs , I dont think I would allocate it evenly. Try to save some, but I mean, dont save it all for years 4,5 and get sacked after 3, haha.

Let's roll the tape