drewski6

100% agree. But I dont think they START the year with Tolle in the pen. I think if there is an injury at some point in the year to the pen (or multiple) and Tolle is starting at AAA, he is very likely to enter the MLB pen at that point But I think we'll start the year with a very good pen and they'll (to start the year) prefer to keep Tolle stretched out as their #6 or #7 starter they can park in AAA until they need him because you know as well as I there will be 13 different dudes who start a game for us next year. I also think Tolle can win a job in the MLB rotation with a strong offseason and spring.

Yes trends matter, and for funsies, show me first half 2025 vs second half 2025 on Cedannes WAR and oWAR (dont care which source) With the 3 strikes and your out comment, I interpreted your comment to mean that its (practically) case closed, Duran will (almost assuredly) get traded and Cedanne (very likely )wont for 3 reasons: 1. Age, 2. Control, 3 Defense. And Im saying the reason why Duran is more likely than Cedanne (by a lot) to get traded (and I agree he is) is for one main reason, thats none of your 3 1. Trade Value Cedanne is not getting you Lodolo, for example.

REgegarding the first bold, my favorite Red Sox is Crochet, but I dont think I have an anti Cedanne bias. I would like Cedanne a lot more if we signed Schwarber and traded for Marte. As I said , there are plenty of teams that I can envision that have Cedanne in CF that I would be over the moon about. Ive seen you talking about trading Duran for relief pitcher and prospects, talking about getting bregman as your big signing and now you are talking about trading abreu AND Duran. And in my opinion (and I respect you a lot) but in my opinion, you are going a bit too far with underemphasizing the offensive and willingness to subtract for it. Im starting to think that your dream team is: RA Bregman Story Yoshida Romy Campbell Mayer Romy Cedanne And I think you are too comfy with this snoozefest and sub .500 team. And I dont think its my bias that leads me to believe that if thats the team, than 2026 is gonna STINK. But I will ackowledge that I am literally the worst planet on the planet to determine how much my own biases/preferences are influencing my opinions. Just like how anybody else on the planet is the least qualified person to speak to whether or not they are biased (theres an old saying that I love that goes: "thing about losing your mind is...you are always the last one to know") . Not to imply either of us are crazy Regarding your second bold, we were on the same page, and I cheered from afar when you joined my chorus. Which was just get Bregman and figure out the D. WE had missed on a few targets that people wanted, sometimes for the better (monty, teoscar hernandez) and sometimes not (Soto), and it felt like Bregman was one of the few impact players still there. And I was like just freaking grab him and figure out the D. I honestly think that had Devers shoulder been 100%, Devers would have played 3b some and DH some, Bregman would have played 3b some and Bregman would have played 2b some. I think that Bregmans versatility was one of the reasons why they signed him , and they didnt sign him 100% determiend that he was going to be a full time 3B going forward. I think they put value that he could have been because they knew Devers was a butcher and likely to get hurt in the field, and I think they loved the fact that Bregman could be a full time 3b and it was a high possibility, but I dont think it was get bregman and make him the 3b. I dont think positions are this rigid in 2025. I think one position players are becoming more and more rare.

You gave three reasons and missed the main one. Duran is better than Cedanne and will return more in a package than Cedanne, who is a borderline bench player if he hits like he did second half of last year (even with his awesome D). You guys underemphasize hitting. Its #1. If Im getting similar packages for Duran and Cedanne, bye bye Cedanne. Theres a reson his BTV is like 50 and Durans is like 70 despite a big gap in years of control favorring Cedanne. Hes not as good overall as you think, Speaking my favorite language (video game rankings) Cedanne is a 99 defender, and a 74 OVR player Duran is a 71 defender, and an 82 OVR player

Rafaela is an A++ defender and even with that , he is the worst outfielder (taking offense and defense into account) of the 3. Hes a cold streak away from being a fourth outfielder. Why move Cedanne instead of Duran when that would weaken our D? Because the impact of weakening your D is much less than the impact of weakening your hitting. THis is why oWAR is more correlated with WAR than dWAR Hitting (50%) = ptiching (40%) + defense (10%) That being said, there are plenty of teams that I can envision in 2025 that have Cedanne in CF and one of Abreu/Duran traded that would have me excited. Im not saying trade Cedanne over one of the corners, jsut saying its not as unlikely as you old-school folks (no offense) think. The emphasis on D is going down around the league, not up. The trend is maximizing offense, which is why defensive versatility is so popular right now. You wanna be able to shuffle your d around to be able to always have your best bats in there without having an atrocious d (which granted, we've had). But its about being adequate on D, not putting it first. And also, even if we flashback 10 years to when D was more emphasized (vs today), even then a lot of the chasing the D was small market teams that couldnt afford to buy a bat to put there, but could afford to put an all D no bat there because they couldnt spend like us. And sure, if you are going cheap at a position, an all D no O player can be very useful. But its not because the all D no O player helps you win more. There is a reason why Durnas WAR is higher than Cedannes when theyve played very close to the same amount of games. Not saying I would trade Cedanne before I traded Duran. Just saying that Cedanne is not as good of a ballplayer, even when you take his great D into account. People love watching cedanne's D, as do I, and Im not looking to move him. But Im not holding him at all costs and with your ranking you are literally saying that YOshida/Campbell, Cedanne, Anthony OF is more likely than Anthony/Duran, Duran/Anthony, Abreu and I think thats your own defense bias (again, no offense). Not trying to be stubborn, all Im really saying to you and Notin is that the bottom two of the four likelihoods are certainly the bottom 2 in likelihood, but I think your #3 is here is significantly less likely than your #4 3. Trade Duran & Abreu 4. Trade Rafaela (maybe with Campbell not Garcia)

I get why you would think that on Tolle because his fastball is more MLB ready than his secondaries, and you can be more fastball reliant out of the pen. But the argument against is Tolle's body. That body can handle the rigors of starting pitching without breaking down, and thats not exactly something that grows on trees. If the pen needs the help, I can see Tolle entering to help it. But I think they start with Tolle as a starter either in MLB or AAA cuz he's 6'6 with a man body. I think its more likely they put someone wiry in the pen.

No, devers got hurt and wasnt healing. The plan was to have devers keep butchering at 3b. They are more likely to get an offer they cant refuse on Cedanne than on abreu. The chance they trade cedanne is higher than you think, also - the chance cedanne plays a fair amount of infield this year is higher than you think I do agree that trading one of duran/abreu + one of campbell / Garcia is higher than the chance of trading or moving Cedanne. But I would say that the chance that Cedanne is not the full time CF for the red sox next year is unlikely, but not very unlikely OVer the last 2 years, Durans WAR/game played is 96% higher than Cedannes. So hes been twice as good (and thats NOT Duran has been twice as good offensively, thats taking offense and defense into account) But but but but deeeeefense is a yesteryear argument and sox are new school.

Of the 4 big league OF'ers, heres how i rank order of likelihood 1, Trade ONE of Duran / Abreu 2. Trade one of Duran / Abreu and also trade cedanne 3. play cedanne at infield 4. Trade both Duran and Abreu

No way they trade both corner outfielders. If they trade 2 outfielders, one will be cedanne. Cedanne might even be the first one to go, but they prob like that he can play infield.

Quite an eventful walk!

I was having fun, I dont actually think we'll get one of my favorite players in Corbin Carroll, even though I can make a better argument than you think about why Cedanne + Roman for CC actually works for both teams, but if I start pounding the table on any trade involving RA being sent, Ill turn myself into a villain here. And Im not trying to heel turn at the moment (my character isnt stale yet, and yes I watch too much wrestling). Honestly, though, the biggest issue with your plan is that if they trade for Ryan, theyll prob extend him vs keep him cheap for 2 years. But with 2 years left on his deal , might push down the AAV on an extension.

Give this guy the Fenway replica!

I can live with Duran in CF, but its not ideal because he has lapses in focus and more impactfully, the arm is weak for CF (but fine for LF). Im less against it than some, but fully healthy I dont think it makes much sense. If Story/Mayer pick up injuries, it starts making sense to move Cedanne to infield because I think hed be a plus-plus defender at infield even if he wasnt last year and our corner OF depth is better than our CF depth and our inf depth (at present). Of course, it depends a lot on who is on our 40 man when/if injuries cause some shuffling and of course it also matters who survives the "an OF is getting traded" rumors/likelihood. Its over 50% (my opinion) that one of Duran, Cedanne, Abreu gets traded.

If you have two strikes and the pitch is on the outer half, gotta go oppo there. Good stuff. Maybe a disproportionate of his hits oppo are with 2 strikes because if less than 2 strikes, he takes a pitcher's pitch on the outer black and waits for something he can drive. Good stuff with this comment. Very few guys can pull and outer pick and still drive it (because you are "hooking the baseball' which causes the ball to hang in the air), so you have to be really really strong to still hit that hard or even hit a HR to pull side on an oppo pitch. Thats something only the strongest guys in the league can do. Im finding myself getting talked into Bo these last couple days. I agree with MVP that hed be a 1 for 1 replacement for Bregman.

underrated comment, good stuff

This type of stuff takes effort and adds value to being a member here, TY

I want to beat the yankees.

well, i mean Duran Marte Carroll Schwarber 1-4 Competes with any team. You have to be really bad everywhere else and we arent and wont be. That being said Ill fall back to Crochet and 4 dont cares.

to save from having to spend more money a few years from now. If your big purchase is a coupon book, are you really spending?

Whats your point? NOt trying to be a jerk honestly asking. Because we dont have a hitter who is close to elite on the offense side healthy or not.

Your package for Carroll and Marte is like 147 to their combined value values of like 166, so its not as far as you may think. I do think you have to include Roman though. And I think if you include Roman (take out Duran) and one more pitching prospect, they consider it and now youre talking about getting one of the truly elite players in baseball (both sides of the ball) in carroll. Question is: are you bold enough to deal Roman for a player who is faster (by a lot), stronger (by a lot), a better defender (by a lot). more arm (by a lot) and more durable (by a lot), and a better player (by a lot) Who is a better outfielder than Carroll taking offense and defense into account? Anyone?

now i think he strikes out too much (kidding)

You think Crochet is going to fall from 2 to outside the top 75?

Wasnt he up like 2 years ago and effective in a small sample and then he got hurt? Understood if Im thinking of the right guy, its old news. BUt still, not super common to see a 25 yr old get DFA'd like that who was pitching out of the pen effectively in 2024. But Im not crying about it.

ketel, not starling.