Maddie Landis

Let it be known: I have nothing against the state of Minnesota. Sure, Minnesotans incorrectly refer to casseroles as “hot dishes”, they seem to be obsessed with hockey, and their accent sounds Canadian, but none of that is their fault. One thing is certain: the Minnesota Twins, who, as their name suggests, are located in Minnesota, have a valuable trade piece that could help the Red Sox make a deep playoff run. That trade piece is the Twins’ starting pitcher Joe Ryan. The Twins hold significant influence at the 2025 trade deadline. Whether they choose to be buyers or sellers is up for question. If they are sellers, they have the opportunity to be within playoff contention next year, but they have to thread the needle carefully. A three-team trade proposal involving the Phillies, Twins, and Red Sox, with Joe Ryan headlining the deal, would help each team. Back in May, FanGraphs projected the Twins held a 68.7% chance of making the playoffs. The team was riding high on a 13-game winning streak, and it looked like the Twins were a formidable opponent for the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. Since then, their season has fallen apart, and the team currently is at a 14.8% chance of making the playoffs. Shockingly, they’re part of a small group of four teams that have won ten games in a row this season, a list that also includes the Red Sox. Various organizational components can be blamed for the Twins' meltdown. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have offset their rotation. Over the past year, the Pohlad family has flirted with the notion of selling the Twins. Offsetting some payroll at the deadline would help them sell the team and stock up their farm system to appeal to a potential buyer. They probably can’t shed Carlos Correa’s albatross six-year $200 million contract, but they can move other pieces and gain valuable prospects. The organization has also indicated that they’re willing to listen to trades for players on expiring contracts. Phillies receive OF Jarren Duran (28, 1.7 fWAR) and RP Jhoan Duran (27, 1.2 fWAR) I’ll start with my least favorite team in this proposal, the Phillies. Since 2022, the Phillies' outfield ranks 23rd in fWAR. To be honest, I’m impressed that the Phillies made the World Series in 2022, the NLCS in 2023, and the NLDS in 2024 with such a mediocre outfield. Four seasons into his five-year, $100 million contract, Phillies right fielder Nick Castellanos has accumulated a total of 1.2 fWAR. The team uses an inefficient platoon of Johan Rojas (.232/.287/.303, 63 wRC+) and Brandon Marsh (.244/.318/.341, 85 wRC+) in left/center field. The Phillies' outfield woes were on full display during Wednesday night’s marathon versus the Red Sox. After fouling off four pitches from Red Sox reliever Brennan Bernardino (the team’s eighth pitcher of the game), former Twins outfielder Max Kepler (.203/.300/.366, 85 wRC+) struck out looking to end the game in the 11th inning. Kepler signed a $10 million, one-year deal with the Phillies in the offseason. The Red Sox have five very competent outfielders on their major league roster and throughout their farm system. As much as it pains me to write this, Jarren Duran is the odd man out. Baseball is a business, and if trading from a position of strength helps address a roster weakness, the Red Sox must seriously consider moving Duran at the trade deadline. The speedy outfielder’s swing would fare well in Philly. Per Statcast’s Expected Home Runs by Park, Duran would have hit 26 home runs last year and 12 this season if all of them were hit at Citizens Bank Park. He also seemed to be enjoying himself in Philly earlier this week. This trade proposal features not one, but two Durans—both with first names that start with “J” and end in “n”. Jhoan Duran (1.94 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% batted ball rate, and 2.40 FIP across 45.1 innings pitched) would strengthen the Phillies' shaky bullpen (ranked 15th via FanGraphs). Twins receive OF Jhostynxon Garcia (22, ETA: early 2026), SS/3B Franklin Arias (19, ETA: mid-2027), SP Payton Tolle (ETA: mid-2026), SP Mick Abel (23, ETA: 2025), and 2B Aroon Escobar (20, ETA: 2028) The Twins are reportedly seeking “at least two top-100-caliber prospects” for Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The team currently has a strong farm system—Baseball America listed the Twins with the eighth-best farm system at the beginning of the season. Here, the Twins would receive a haul of five top-100 prospects. SP Payton Tolle: #54 SS/3B Franklin Arias: #72 SP Mick Abel: #93 2B Aroon Escobar: #97 OF Jhostynxon Garcia: #100 Payton Tolle is a dominant left-handed pitching prospect, currently playing in Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs. He was a second-round pick in the 2024 draft. Tolle’s fastball reaches a maximum of 98 mph with a whooping 66.7% whiff rate. Some reports suggest Tolle could skip Triple-A à la lefty flamethrowers Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale. In recent years, the Twins have failed to develop quality infielders. Utility infielder Brooks Lee’s defensive metrics (-5 OAA, -9 DRS) are abysmal, and he doesn’t contribute much offensively (.249/.288/.367, 81 wRC+). Royce Lewis is slightly more defensively sound (1 OAA, 2 DRS), but his bat (.237/.302/.385, 92 wRC+) is on par with Lee's. Shortstop/third baseman prospect Franklin Arias might hold the key to reshaping the Twins' infield. Arias holds a .288/.339/.396 slash line, 113 wRC in the minors. Although his Major League debut is still some time away, he earned the 2024 Florida Complex League MVP award and was selected as a Florida Complex League All-Star. Keith Law recently ranked Arias as the ninth-best prospect in baseball. Arias has made significant strides with his bat speed and has the potential to develop into a right-handed, defensively sound power hitter. While the Twins probably won’t make the postseason in 2025, their future looks bright, with outfield prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez expected to debut next early year. Byron Buxton is under contract until 2028. Buxton’s turnaround this season is encouraging, but his extensive injury history raises concerns about his ability to contribute over the rest of his contract. If Jenkins and Rodriguez don't immediately succeed in the majors, Jhostynxon Garcia is a high-impact prospect on the cusp of reaching the majors that provides the Twins with additional outfield depth. By trading Mick Abel to the Twins, the Phillies immediately help offset the loss of Joe Ryan (who I’ll get to in a moment). The Phillies have a strong pitching rotation, and Andrew Painter’s call-up is imminent, making Abel an expendable resource. Earlier this season, Abel had a small cup of coffee in the majors. He initially looked strong in his major league debut, going six scoreless innings (albeit against the lowly Pirates). After getting knocked around by the Cubs, Mets, and Padres, Abel was sent down to Triple-A. He’s posted a 1.83 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 27.0% strikeout rate in the minors this year. Abel’s curveball is nasty, generating a 38.6% whiff rate, and his fastball velocity ranks in the 77th percentile (96.0 mph). Abel’s biggest issue is his control. At age 23, Abel is young, and his underlying metrics indicate he still has time to develop into an elite starter The Phillies' contention window is rapidly closing, likely after the 2026 season, and they’re desperate to make a deep run in October. Second baseman Aroon Escobar (.282/.366/.438, 125 wRC+), who shot up in prospect rankings this year, is the cherry on top to woo the Twins. Red Sox Receive SP Joe Ryan (29, 2.9 fWAR), C Christian Vázquez (34, 0.0 fWAR), and RP Griffin Jax (30, 1.4 fWAR) Joe Ryan immediately slots in as the Red Sox’s No. 2 starter. He’s pitching at a career-best rate in 2025, posting a 2.63 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 29.2% strikeout rate, and 3.13 FIP across 116.1 innings. Ryan is eligible for his second year of arbitration in the offseason. Given his strong performance this year, he should net way more than this year's salary of $3 million. There is a surplus of caliber free-agent starters in the 2025-26 offseason, and the Twins would net more of a return trading Ryan at the deadline versus in the offseason. Trading away Payton Tolle, Jhostynxon Garcia, and Franklin Arias is a tough pill to swallow. However, the Red Sox are one of the few teams that possess the capital to swing a trade for Joe Ryan. Since Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu are the outfield of the future, Garcia is blocked from making his major league debut. When the time comes, Marcelo Mayer will likely be holding Arias down in the minors. The time is now for the team to sell some, but not all, of their prospects. Early in the season, Connor Wong (.144/.228/.144, 5 wRC+) was booted from the Red Sox’s starting catcher role by Carlos Narváez. It’s almost August, and Wong has only recorded one RBI. As a 25-year-old rookie, Carlos Narváez (.266/.339/.439m 113 wRC+) has stepped into the team’s starting catcher role flawlessly. Catcher is such a demanding position, and the worst thing the Red Sox can do is run Narváez to the ground by overworking him. Vázquez (.190/.254/.272, 48 wRC+) fills the team’s backup catcher role, and he isn’t hitting worse than Wong. At age 34, he’s still a serviceable defender (2 DRS, 90th percentile blocks above average). Vázquez would be a veteran presence on a young Red Sox team and a mentor for Narváez, plus the Twins would offload the remainder of his contract via trade. Griffin Jax (4.09 ERA, 36.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% batted ball rate, and 2.07 FIP across 44.0 innings) alleviates stress in the Red Sox’s bullpen, which infamously disintegrates after July. Looking towards the future, Jax is a potential reliever-turned-starter candidate for Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab. This trade proposal addresses each team’s roster needs. The Twins replenish their farm system with impact pitchers and position players, and they shed some payroll without selling any major pieces from their core. It alleviates the Red Sox’s outfield logjam, adds a controllable starting pitcher to their rotation and an impact bullpen piece, and helps the Phillies bolster their bullpen and outfield. What do you think of this proposal? View full article

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week 1-2 (Overall 54-47) Runs Scored Last Week: 7 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 11 Standings: 3rd in the AL East 5.0 GB 1st Place 0.0 WCGB (3rd Wild Card Spot) Scores: Game 99 (7/18) | BOS 1, CHC 4 Game 100 (7/19) | BOS 0, CHC 6 Game 101 (7/20) | BOS 6, CHC 1 Transactions: 7/18/25: Red Sox signed free agent Ronaldo Hernández to a minor league contract 7/12/25: Red Sox placed Hunter Dobbins (right ACL tear) on the 15-day IL 7/12/25: Red Sox recalled Richard Fitts from Triple-A Worcester 7/12/25: Red Sox traded Blake Sabol to the Chicago White Sox for cash considerations TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights Cubs series: In the first two games of the series, the Red Sox's bats disappeared. They went 1-11 with runners in scoring position. On Friday, Lucas Giolito looked rocky in the first inning, yielding a three-run homer to Seiya Suzuki after walking the Cubs' first two batters. Unfortunately, the Red Sox couldn’t provide Giolito run support. Saturday night, Cubs starter Shota Imanaga threw a seven-inning shutout. Brayan Bello pitched a quality start, but again, the Red Sox failed to provide their starter with much-needed run support. Imanaga snapped Roman Anthony’s 10-game hitting streak. The Cubs hit five total home runs, three of them off Chris Murphy. For Sunday’s game, Alex Cora tinkered with the Red Sox’s lineup defensively and offensively. Masatake Yoshida took the field for the first time since October 1st, 2023. Ceddanne Rafaela shifted to second base and moved up to third in the batting order. Fortunately, the team’s bats woke up late in the game. Wilyer Abreu hit two home runs, marking his fourth multi-home run game of the season. Since returning from the IL, Alex Bregman was slashing .188/.188/.250 with a 12.5% strikeout rate and 0.0% batted ball rate. In the top of the eighth, he hit a home run off the bench to solidify the Red Sox’s lead. Ace Garrett Crochet limited the Cubs' explosive offense to one run over six innings. The Red Sox continue to play tough National League teams this week. Following the Cubs series, they travel to Philadelphia for a three-game series versus the Phillies. They’ll face two of the Phillies' aces, Zach Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez. Tuesday (TBS) and Wednesday (ESPN) games will be nationally televised. The team returns home for the weekend to play the Dodgers. Fox will cover Saturday night’s game. Random Stats Since 2023, the Red Sox have held a 53-47 record through 100 games. The Red Sox rank second in team hard-hit rate and fifth in team barrel rate. Red Sox’s starters lead the American League in first-inning runs allowed with 68. Ceddanne Rafaela’s 17 DRS are the most in baseball. Masataka Yoshida’s hard hit rate currently stands at 50% this year. This will probably regress to the mean as he gets more at-bats. Website Highlights You can catch up on the 2025 MLB Draft right here on Talk Sox! Billy and Nick wrote excellent pieces on the Red Sox’s draft picks. Read more: Red Sox 2025 Draft Overview: Focus on College Pitching Highlights A Valuable Strategy by Billy Mock Red Sox Select Kyson Witherspoon 15th Overall in the 2025 MLB Draft by Billy Mock Red Sox Select RHP Marcus Phillips 33rd Overall In The 2025 MLB Draft by Nick John Red Sox Select RHP Anthony Eyanson 87th Overall in 2025 MLB Draft by Nick John Vote For Your Top Red Sox Prospects! by Brock Beauchamp Trade Deadline Coverage The First Base Rental Market is Weak, but the Red Sox Can Still Swing a Trade by Alex Mayes Like the Red Sox, Fans Should Buy Into the Idea of Carlos Santana at the Trade Deadline by Brandon Glick Starting Pitcher Targets Red Sox Fans Should Familiarize Themselves With Before Trade Deadline by Maddie Landis Did you know? Talk Sox is part of the DiamondCentric network, which also covers the Cubs, Brewers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Padres, and Twins. Be sure to check out their new website and follow them on social media! The website’s homepage is an all-inclusive feed featuring content from their entire network. In today’s world, well-written baseball content is hard to come by, but DiamondCentric contributors are constantly posting quality pieces. Looking Ahead July 21st – Red Sox (Buehler) at Phillies (Wheeler) – 6:45 pm EDT June 24th – Red Sox (Fitts) at Phillies (Sanchez) – 6:45 pm EDT (TBS coverage) June 25th – Red Sox (Giolito) at Phillies (Luzardo probable) – 7:05 pm EDT (ESPN coverage) June 27th – Dodgers at Red Sox – 7:10 pm EDT June 28th – Dodgers at Red Sox – 7:15 pm EDT (Fox coverage) June 29th – Dodgers at Red Sox – 1:35 pm EDT View full article

As the hot stove starts heating up over the next couple of weeks, you’ll hear some names on the rumor mill. Here’s a quick overview of starting pitchers connected to the Red Sox ahead of the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline. Zac Gallen, 29, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks ($13.5 million owed in 2025, UFA in 2026) Gallen is having a rough year. From March to the end of June, he posted a 5.75 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 9.9% batted ball rate, and 5.17 FIP. This month, Gallen’s ERA has dropped to 3.50, and his strikeout rate has increased to a whooping 30.1%. Gallen’s fastball is his primary pitch. The rest of his arsenal consists of swing and miss stuff like his curveball. Since 2022, his fastball velocity has steadily dropped from 94.1 mph to 93.3 mph. Yes, fastball velocity is expected to drop with age, but the fact that Gallen’s primary pitch is currently sitting at 93.3 mph when he’s only 29 is concerning. Another issue is his fastball command. In previous seasons, he’d attack the perimeter of the strike zone to set up his curveball. Now, his control is off, and he can’t locate the pitch at the bottom of the zone. Gallen’s curveball also isn’t as effective as it once was. In 2024, he limited batters to a .192 wOBA and 27 wRC+ with the pitch; this year, those have jumped to .333 and 125, respectively. He’s throwing the pitch at the bottom of the zone, similar to previous seasons, but hitters are punishing him for it this year. Despite his subpar performance this year, Gallen is drawing interest from the Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays, among others. His pedigree indicates he could turn things around; he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2022 and third in 2023. Between 2022 and 2025, he ranks 12th on the starting pitchers WAR leaderboard. He could be a great candidate for Andrew Bailey's pitching lab to “fix” him. Gallen is also a Boras client, so it’s unlikely he’ll immediately sign an extension with the team that trades for him. Merrill Kelly, 36, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7.0 million in 2025, UFA in 2026) Every time I write about Merrill Kelly, my fingers betray me and type "Marill", the adorable water-type Pokémon. If Merrill ever throws a curveball that splashes, I’m blaming Nintendo. Merrill Kelly has stepped up to help the ailing Diamondbacks rotation. He’s not a traditional number two starter, but he is a consistent pitcher who controls his pitches well (career 104 Location+). Kelly played a significant role during the Diamondbacks’ 2023 postseason run, and his established postseason success as a pitcher should draw interest from teams. His postseason ERA is 2.25 with a 30.8% strikeout rate across 24.0 innings pitched. He’s 36 years old, so age is obviously a concern with him. Kelly is a late bloomer who pitched for the SK Wyverns in the KBO between 2015 and 2018 before joining the Diamondbacks in 2019. Seth Lugo, 36, RHP, Kansas City Royals ($15.0 million in 2025, $15.0 million player option in 2026) Last October, I wrote about Seth Lugo’s breakout as a former reliever turned starter. Lugo’s extensive arsenal doesn’t contain super overwhelming stuff, but his pitch mix lets him deceive batters. Lugo’s underlying metrics point to regression. His LOB% spiked to 88% (MLB average: 73%), and his 2.67 ERA is outperforming his 4.28 FIP and 4.06 xFIP. Whether the Royals choose to sell at the deadline remains uncertain. The Royals (47-50) are 12 games back in the AL Central. Their farm system ranks in the bottom third of the league (Baseball America listed them at 27 in February), so they could bolster their system by moving Lugo, who’s on an expiring contract, at the deadline. Charlie Morton, 41, RHP, Baltimore Orioles ($15 million in 2025, UFA in 2026) Veteran pitcher Charlie Morton initially had a rough start with the Orioles. He posted a 9.45 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 15.2% batted ball rate through the end of April. In May, the Orioles demoted Morton to the bullpen, where he settled in (2.10 ERA, 24.3% K%, and 11.4% BB%). Since June 1st, his ERA is 2.72 with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 7.4% batted ball rate. At age 40, Morton’s fastball is averaging 94.1 mph. His curveball remains an elite pitch (3150 RPM) with a 33.7% whiff rate. The two-time World Series champion brings valuable intangibles to any playoff-bound pitching staff, thanks to his 18-year MLB career and extensive postseason experience. Over 80 innings in the playoffs, he’s posted a 3.60 ERA, 3.67 FIP, a 26.8% strikeout rate, and a 9.6% barreled ball rate. While the Orioles haven’t officially declared themselves sellers, the writing is on the wall—Fangraphs currently pegs their playoff odds at just 2.8%. Morton still has time to boost his trade value and move past his rough start before the deadline arrives. Andrew Heaney, 34, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates ($5.25 million in 2025, UFA in 2026) Looking at Andrew Heaney’s Savant page, his stats don’t suggest he’ll move the needle for any playoff-bound team. Heaney got off to the season on a strong footing, recording a 2.61 ERA with 29 strikeouts in April versus the Yankees, Reds, Nationals, Angels, and Cubs. Since May, Heaney’s fallen off a cliff. His fastball is down 2.5 mph, averaging around 90.0 mph. Month ERA K% BB% BA OBP SLG May 4.74 11.3 13.0 .276 .374 .480 June 5.57 20.6 5.3 .259 .292 .492 July 12.60 7.4 7.4 .375 .444 .917 Heaney is a reclamation project, but if a team believes it can help him return to form, he could be a valuable addition. He won a ring with the Rangers in 2023 and brings postseason experience. Among the pitchers listed in this article, he may have the lowest floor, but pitching depth is crucial in the postseason. While he doesn't have the flashiest stuff, Heaney can solidify a rotation as a back-end innings eater. Which of these pitchers do you want the Red Sox to go after at the trade deadline? Let us know in the comments! View full article

Late Saturday morning, just before the 2025 MLB All-Star break, the Red Sox placed Hunter Dobbins on the 15-day injured list for a right ACL tear. Just before his brief return, he was activated from another 15-day injured list stint dating back to June 22 due to a right elbow strain. Expect Dobbins to get transferred to the 60-day IL in short order, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster. Dobbins sustained his injury during the second inning of the game while racing to cover first base on a Chandler Simpson groundout. He had previously torn his right ACL in high school. Given the severity of the injury, Dobbins’ rookie season is finished. Dr. Jesse Morse (who’s a great follow for baseball-related injuries) reports that his recovery time will take between 9-12 months, so he’ll start the 2026 season on the injured list. As a 25-year-old rookie, the Texas native only played in 13 games, posting a 4.13 ERA across 61.0 innings. Despite his low 19th-percentile strikeout rate (17.6%), he was an effective pitcher who bolstered the team’s oft-injured rotation. Dobbins had a diversified six-pitch mix that complemented his strong command (50.7% Zone%, 104 Location+). He primarily threw his 95.5 mph fastball to set up his slider (28.9% whiff rate) and curveball (38.2% whiff rate). In mid-June, his sinker made its debut against the Yankees. Dobbins wasn’t super flashy on the mound, but he induced weak contact (48.4% ground ball rate) and limited traffic on the basepaths with his 6.6% batted-ball rate. The Red Sox recalled Richard Fitts, who was previously optioned to Triple-A Worcester for Dobbins' short-lived return. Fitts holds a 4.28 ERA across 33.2 innings this year. Per Tim Healey of the Boston Globe, he’ll take the mound between July 21st and 22nd in Philly. Aside from Richard Fitts, Tanner Houck or Kyle Harrison could take over Dobbins’ spot in the rotation. Houck is currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A Worcester, but looked like a pumpkin earlier in the season. Kyle Harrison is also in Worcester, tinkering with his pitch mix. Earlier this week on the Greg Hill Show, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated the organization would focus on acquiring impact starting pitching before the trade deadline. With Hunter Dobbins' injury further exacerbating the rotation’s depth, the Red Sox will have to move one of their outfielders for a starting pitcher. View full article

Alex welcomes Caleb Kohn onto the podcast to pinch-hit while Maddie and Adam are both away. They discuss Alex Bregman's return from injury and a possible contract extension. Then they talk through some possible trade deadline scenarios and wrap up with Caleb's pitch for Garrett Crochet to start the MLB All-Star Game. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week 3-3 (Overall 40-39) Runs Scored Last Week: 19 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 26 Standings: 4th in the AL East 6.0 GB 1st Place 0.5 WCGB Scores: Game 74 (6/16) | BOS 2, SEA 0 Game 75 (6/17 | BOS 0, SEA 8 Game 76 (6/18) | BOS 3, SEA 1 Game 77 (6/20) | BOS 7, SF 5 Game 78 (6/21) | BOS 2, SF 3 Game 79 (6/22) | BOS 5, SF 9 Transactions: 6/15/25: Red Sox optioned Kyle Harrison to Triple-A Worcester 6/15/25: Red Sox trade Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants for Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, Jose Bello and James Tibbs III 6/15/25: Red Sox designated Zach Penrod for assignment 6/16/25: Red Sox recalled Nate Eaton from Triple-A Worcester 6/17/25: Red Sox sent Wilyer Abreu on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Worcester 6/18/25: Red Sox sent Tanner Houck on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Worcester 6/20/25: Red Sox optioned Kristian Campbell to Triple-A Worcester 6/20/25: Red Sox traded Zach Penrod to the Los Angeles Dodgers for cash considerations 6/20/25: Red Sox activated Wilyer Abreu from the 10-day injured list 6/21/25: Red Sox signed free agent Wascar Berroa to a minor league contract 6/22/25: Red Sox recalled Richard Fitts from Triple-A Worcester 6/22/25: Red Sox sent Jordan Hicks on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Worcester 6/22/25: Red Sox placed Hunter Dobbins on the 15-day injured list TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights Mariners series: Roman Anthony hit his first major league home run (104 mph EV, 391 ft) in the first game of the Mariners series! It came off a 96.2 mph sinker. The Mariners teed the ball off Walker Buehler, who yielded eight earned runs in 3.1 innings. Once again, Buehler’s command wasn’t present. Cal Raleigh powered the Mariners’ offense with six RBIs, including a grand slam in the second inning that drove in four runs. Otherwise, the series was relatively uneventful. Without Rafael Devers, the Red Sox only scoring five total runs, but managed to win the three-game series. This was their fourth straight series win. Giants series: In the first game of the Giants series, the Red Sox scored seven runs, their highest scoring game since the Devers trade. Wilyer Abreu, fresh off his 10-day injured list stint (left oblique strain), recorded an RBI. Rafael Devers went 0-5 in the game, but hit his first home run (105.5 mph EV, 370 ft) with the Giants off Brayan Bello the following day. In the final game of the series, the Red Sox resembled their old selves, committing fielding errors and making poor baserunning decisions. Jarren Duran ran into Nate Eaton in shallow left field, allowing two runs to score. Abraham Toro attempted to score from first off a Ceddanne Rafaela double and was thrown out at home. Later on, Romy Gonzalez misplayed a ball at second. At times, the game looked attainable for the Red Sox. Lucas Giolito pitched a quality outing, but eventually the team’s defense blew the game, yielding five unearned runs. At the top of the eighth, Jarren Duran and Alex Cora were ejected after arguing a replay review of a tagged out at second base. The Red Sox lost the game 9-5, and their record is .500 (3-3) post-Devers trade. Walker Buehler aside, the team’s pitching has looked solid. The Red Sox’s offense and defense must support their pitchers by delivering competitive at-bats and playing fundamentally sound defense in the field. They finish their West Coast road trip with a three-game series against the Angels before finally returning home to play the Blue Jays. (These late games are messing with my sleep schedule.) Earlier in June, the team barely avoided getting swept by the Angels, so they have to play good ball this time around. The Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and the Red Sox could overtake them in the American League East standings with a series dub. Random Stats: 6/16 – 6/22 Slash Lines: Over the past week, nobody on the team (minimum 10 innings played) has hit above a .250 batting average, so I won’t be listing slash lines here. Without Rafael Devers, the team needs a veteran power bat to solidify the middle of the order. On a more positive note, Ceddanne Rafaela is slashing .286/.328/.524, 25.0% strikeout rate, and 133 wRC+ in June. In the wake of the Devers trade, he’s putting in more competitive at-bats and has helped carry the team’s offense. He's currently too streaky to be the immediate solution for filling Devers' spot in the lineup, but he's slowly moving up in the batting order. Jarren Duran ranks second in errors among left fielders this year. Since 2024, Walker Buehler has posted a 5.63 ERA — the 135th worst out of 138 pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched between 2024 and 2025. As of Sunday, June 22nd, Garrett Crochet is leading the league in strikeouts (125). Let’s see him hit 200 by the end of the season. Website Highlights: Do These National League Sellers Have Anything For The Boston Red Sox? By Matthew Lentz What Might James Tibbs III And Jose Bello, The Trade Return For Rafael Devers, Turn Out To Be? By Nick John In Hindsight, the Rafael Devers Trade Needed to Happen by Alex Mayes Tanner Houck Begins Rehab Assignment With Worcester To Mixed Results by Nick John Looking Ahead: June 23rd – Red Sox at Angels – 9:38 pm EDT June 24th – Red Sox at Angels – 9:38 pm EDT June 25th – Red Sox at Angels – 4:07 pm EDT June 27th – Blue Jays at Red Sox – 7:10 pm EDT June 28th – Blue Jays at Red Sox – 4:10 pm EDT June 29th – Blue Jays at Red Sox – 1:35 pm EDT View full article

Baseball has always been my escapism from the drama of everyday life. (If I’m seeking drama-riddled sports, I can tune into an early morning European football match on the weekend.) Even during the Chaim Bloom era, I found myself looking forward to watching games. Secretly streaming Red Sox games on my phone helped make my college night classes bearable. Sadly, the Red Sox are less enjoyable to watch in 2025 than in previous years because the organization is rife with drama, stemming from the front office’s leadership and poor communication skills. Conflict has the potential to be healthy if handled properly with effective communication. The Red Sox’s divorce with Rafael Devers is the perfect case study on how not to address conflict. With that being said, the Devers trade is not black and white — it’s a nuanced issue, and I think both sides are culpable for communicating poorly. The front office dynamics in professional sports are unique. Athletes generate revenue for the team with their performances, merchandise sales, etc. Theoretically, they should hold the bargaining power, but they’re ultimately told what to do by the front office. A self-governed team would be an interesting social experiment, perhaps conducted by Nathan Fielder? - Pete Abraham, “The Red Sox’ hiring of Craig Breslow is a best-of-all-worlds move" The Red Sox hired Craig Breslow as their Chief Baseball Officer in late October 2023. Relationship building, whether it’s professional or personal, is a hallmark of personal fulfillment. As Buster Olney noted, Breslow did little to ingratiate himself with the face of the franchise over his one year and seven months tenure. Last May, it was reported that Craig Breslow hired Sportsology Group to conduct an audit of the team’s baseball operations department. The move was reminiscent of McKinsey’s infamous audit of the Astros, which raised eyebrows across the league. Why mix big business and baseball? Following the audit, several seasoned scouts were fired, fueling growing tension and discontent within the team’s scouting department. This unrest reached a boiling point last month during an internal Zoom meeting. Believing the call ended, Carl Moesche, the Red Sox’s former scouting supervisor, reportedly said, “Thanks, Bres, you f***ing stiff”. Any competent leader would have fired Moesche on the spot for undermining their authority in such a manner. However, the real question worth pondering is: what led Moesche to make such a comment? Was it just one disgruntled employee, or are there deeper issues at play? It’s likely that other scouts privately share Moesche’s frustrations, but they were more cautious in voicing their opinions. Adding fuel to the fire, the Red Sox were listed as one of the least scout-friendly teams in Baseball America’s 2025 Scout Survey. Last year, Alex Speier reported that the front office staff and scouts were asked to accept pay cuts to remain with the organization. Baseball scouts, by nature, are scattered across the country, evaluating players in various locations. Moesche’s outburst could have been avoided if there had been more direct communication and in-person meetings at the start of the season. Coming from the Cubs, where Breslow worked remotely from his home in Newton, he may have been more accustomed to an online-focused environment and brought these principles with him to the Red Sox. In baseball, effective leadership and the ability to maintain personal connections are critical skills. While remote work may be an inevitable trend, certain aspects of traditional interaction, like face-to-face meetings, remain essential for fostering team cohesion and maintaining morale. The Red Sox have overlooked the human element in their hiring process for baseball operations positions. Joon Lee reported that the Red Sox used AI bots to conduct interviews with candidates for not one but five rounds of interviews. Technology is beneficial, but at the end of the day, humans are the best judges of a candidate’s potential. Winning organizations are built on strong, human relationships from the ground up, and good employees can't be effectively assessed or developed solely through AI. Moreover, now that the public is aware of the team's automated hiring process, it discourages qualified candidates to apply for future positions. Speaking from personal experience, I applied for Fenway Sports Management’s Associate Program back in 2023 and was prompted to provide a video on HireVue, a video-based AI recruiting platform. I chose not to submit the video at the time, as I had just started a new job (which I still hold today), but I can’t help but wonder if there were additional video interviews following the first one. This leads us to John Henry, the owner of the Red Sox. When Henry took over the team (under Fenway Sports Group) in 2003, the Red Sox were his main priority. He frequently attended games and seemed to be in tune with the state of the organization. However, since expanding Fenway Sports Group’s portfolio with ventures like the purchase of Liverpool FC (2010), Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing (2007), and the Pittsburgh Penguins (2022), his involvement with the Red Sox appears to have waned. On Friday, June 13th, Liverpool announced a record-breaking transfer to sign Florian Wirtz. While Henry is free to allocate his resources and time as he sees fit, effective delegation and management are crucial for the success of the Red Sox. Under Craig Breslow’s leadership, it’s clear that the human element and the connection between management and the team has been lost, and the Red Sox are paying the price for it. Delegating proper management for the Red Sox is of the uttermost importance. Craig Breslow has demonstrated that, while he may be an excellent baseball analyst, he isn't an effective leader of men, and the Red Sox have lost the human element under his leadership. View full article

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall 37-36) Runs Scored Last Week: 23 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 18 Standings: 4th in the AL East 6.5 GB 1st Place 0.5 WCGB Scores: Game 68 (6/9) | TB 10, BOS 8 Game 69 (6/10 | TB 1, BOS 3 Game 70 (6/11) | TB 3, BOS 4 Game 71 (6/13) | NYY 1, BOS 2 Game 72 (6/14) | NYY 3, BOS 4 Game 73 (6/15) | NYY 0, BOS 2 Transactions: 6/9/25: Selected the contract of Roman Anthony from Triple-A Worcester 6/9/25: Selected the contract of Brian Van Belle from Triple-A Worcester 6/9/25: Designated Robert Stock for assignment 6/9/25: Designated Ryan Noda for Assignment 6/9/25: Placed Wilyer Abreu on the 10-day injured list (left oblique strain) 6/10/25: Designated Brian Van Belle for assignment 6/10/25: Sent Chris Murphy on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Worcester 6/10/25: Roman Anthony changed number from 48 to 19 6/11/25: Minnesota Twins traded Jorge Alcala to the Red Sox for Andy Lugo 6/11/25: Robert Stock outrighted to Triple-A Worcester 6/11/25: Activated Jorge Alcala 6/12/25: Ryan Noda roster status changed by the Red Sox 6/12/25: Signed free agent Michael Manjerres to a minor league contract 6/13/25: Ryan Noda claimed off waivers by the Chicago White Sox 6/13/25: Brian Van Belle roster status changed by the Red Sox 6/13/25: Sent Nick Burdi on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Worcester 6/14/25: Traded Brian Van Belle to the Cincinnati Reds for cash 6/15/25: The trade that shall not be named TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights Rays series: Roman Anthony was called up for the first game of the Rays series. Much like Marcelo Mayer’s call-up, Roman’s arrival was prompted by an injury — this time for Wilyer Abreu. In Anthony’s major league debut, he recorded his first RBI with a walk, but went 0-4, and the Red Sox lost the game 10-8. However, they went on to win the following two games. On Tuesday night, Anthony’s first hit drove in two RBIs, which helped the team win the game. Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler looked strong in their respective outings, each tossing quality starts. Yankees series: The Red Sox were the first team to sweep the Yankees this year. Again, the starting pitching looked strong and provided the bullpen with some much-needed rest. Garrett Crochet, Hunter Dobbins, and Brayan Bello silenced the Yankees' bats. Aaron Judge went 1-12 with nine strikeouts against the Red Sox over the weekend. The Yankees' defense and baserunning looked atrocious throughout the series. On Friday night, Aaron Boone was ejected after arguing a foul ball. The Red Sox are looking to build upon their five-game winning streak as they leave for the longest road trip of the season. Their first series is against the Mariners, who are 4-6 in their last 10 games. The Mariners currently hold the third wild-card spot, and the Red Sox are only a half-game behind This is a great series to bridge the gap between a playoff position against a free-falling team. Afterwards, they draw the San Francisco Giants. I don't need to tell you why that series will be important. Random Stats: 5/26 – 6/1 Slash Lines Good weeks: Carlos Narváez: .333/.444/.533, 174 wRC+ Trevor Story: .308/.308/.500, 119 wRC+ Ceddanne Rafaela: .350/.381/.400, 119 wRC+ Bad weeks: Jarren Duran: .143/.217/.333, 47 wRC+ Kristian Campbell: .125/.333/.188, 65 wRC+ Carlos Narváez holds a .300 batting average with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, Kristian Campbell is batting .179. The Red Sox are teeing the ball off any Yankees starting pitcher not named Max Fried. Case in point, Carlos Rodón against the Red Sox this year: 7.20 ERA, .256/.370/.538 slash line across two games. Ryan Yarbrough: 9.35 ERA Will Warren: 6.75 ERA Rafael Devers’ career slash line at home is .292/.362/.523 — a noticeable jump from his away slash line, .266/.337/.498. Will he be able to sustain these numbers in San Francisco? Only time will tell. Website Highlights A Review of Roman Anthony’s First MLB Series with the Red Sox by Finley Rogan The Red Sox Will Reportedly Be Buyers at the Trade Deadline by Alex Mayes Red Sox Injury Updates: Tanner Houck Throwing Bullpens, Masataka Yoshida Improving, More by Nick John Former Red Sox Top Prospect Is Flashing Signs Of Potential After Several Injury-Filled Seasons by Nick John Looking Ahead: June 16th – Red Sox at Seattle – 9:40 pm EDT June 17th – Red Sox at Seattle – 9:40 pm EDT June 18th – Red Sox at Seattle – 4:10 pm EDT June 19th – Day Off June 20th – Red Sox at Giants – 10:15 pm EDT June 21st – Red Sox at Giants – 4:05 pm EDT June 22nd – Red Sox at Giants – 4:05 pm EDT View full article

If you follow baseball in the modern day, you’ve probably heard of the statistic WAR. WAR (wins above replacement) is a relatively new, advanced metric to quantify a player’s value compared to a replacement-level player. MLB provides the following definition: “WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).” WAR has solid calculations for position players. However, for pitchers, WAR is a different rodeo. This piece will focus on pitcher WAR. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, the two leading baseball statistics sites, use different formulas to calculate pitcher WAR. FanGraphs (fWAR) includes Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Baseball Reference (bWAR) uses Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings Pitched (RA9) in their formula. FanGraphs’ equation: WAR = [[([(League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Pitcher Specific Runs Per Win] + Replacement Level) * (IP/9)] * Leverage Multiplier for Relievers] + League Correction Read more about FanGraphs' breakdown of their formula here, WAR for Pitchers, and their explanation on FIP, Why Our Pitcher WAR Uses FIP and Why Our Pitcher WAR Uses FIP, Part Two. FanGraphs’ FIP formula: Baseball Reference’s equation: WAR = WAR_rep + WAA + WAA_adj Read more about Baseball Reference’s explanation of their formula here. Since Baseball Reference and FanGraphs use different statistics in their formulas, there are some discrepancies between their WAR. FIP measures a pitcher’s performance and calculates events they have control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs), whereas RA9 counts all runs, earned and unearned, that are scored when a pitcher is on the mound. FIP doesn’t account for factors like defense, pitch sequencing, and luck. A pitcher who induces more weak contact with his pitchers will likely post a higher FIP, but since they limit the number of runs scored, their RA9 would be lower, resulting in a higher bWAR and lower fWAR. A comparison of Hunter Dobbins and Brayan Bello’s fWAR is a great case study to examine the usefulness and flaws of WAR. Generally speaking, pitchers who have thrown more innings and limit the amount of runs scored against them generate higher WARs. However, Dobbins has a 4.35 ERA (41.1 IP) and 0.6 fWAR, in comparison to Bello’s 3.96 ERA (52.1 IP) and 0.3 fWAR. Despite Dobbins’ higher ERA in fewer innings, he’s posted twice the amount of WAR as Bello. Pitcher fWAR FIP ERA Hunter Dobbins 0.6 3.68 4.35 Brayan Bello 0.3 4.57 3.96 The simple explanation for these discrepancies is that Dobbins’ FIP is significantly lower than Bello’s. FIP factors home runs, batted balls, hit by pitches, and strikeouts, and Bello has yielded more balls (25) and hit by pitches (four) than Dobbins (six and two, respectively). Dobbin’s positive 0.67 ERA-FIP differential suggests he’s been unlucky, while Bello’s negative 0.61 ERA-FIP differential indicates he’s gotten lucky. Conversely, Dobbins and Bello share the same bWAR (0.3), and their RA9 are closer (Dobbins: 4.38, Bello: 4.47). Depending on who you ask, ERA is a flawed statistic that’s dependent on factors outside a pitcher’s control, including defense, pitch sequencing, and pure luck. For instance, Red Sox reliever Liam Hendriks’ ERA benefited from Gold Glove-caliber defense from Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela to rob Kerry Carpenter of a home run. Statistics aren’t perfect; bWAR and fWAR are just two of many metrics that are used to evaluate a pitcher’s performance. While bWAR assumes pitchers have control over the outcome of every ball hit into play, fWAR places more emphasis on a pitcher’s direct ability to prevent runs. Each possesses inherent qualities, and which database fans choose ultimately depends on their preference. Fortunately, FanGraphs and Baseball Reference offer solid metrics for fans to review and determine their own opinions of a pitcher’s performance. View full article

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week 3-3 (Overall 32-35) Runs Scored Last Week: 47 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 43 Standings: 4th in the AL East, 8.5 GB 1st Place 4.0 WCGB Scores: Game 62 (6/2) | LAA 7, BOS 6 Game 63 (6/3) | LAA 4, BOS 3 Game 64 (6/4) | LAA 9, BOS 11 Game 65 (6/6) | BOS 6, NYY 9 Game 66 (6/7) | BOS 10, NYY 7 Game 67 (6/8) | BOS 11, NYY 7 Transactions: 06/02/25: Optioned Nate Eaton to Triple-A Worcester 06/02/25: Activated Romy Gonzalez from the 10-day IL (left quad contusion) 06/03/25: Recalled Cooper Criswell from Triple-A Worcester 06/03/25: Optioned Richard Fitts to Triple-A Worcester 06/03/25: Signed free-agent Breylin Cruz to a minor league contract 06/03/25: Sent Chris Murphy on a rehab assignment to Double-A Portland 06/03/25: Placed Nick Burdi on the 15-day IL (right foot contusion) 06/04/25: Signed Eddison Septimo to a minor league contract 06/05/25: Outrighted Blake Sabol to Triple-A Worcester 06/07/25: Recalled Josh Winckowski from Triple-A Worcester 06/07/25: Selected the contract of Robert Stock from Triple-A Worcester TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights Angels series: Aside from Brayan Bello, who had a passable outing (lacking run support), the Red Sox’s starting pitching was abysmal. Richard Fitts gave up five earned runs in one single inning, and Lucas Giolito gave up eight earned runs in 1 2/3 innings. The Red Sox narrowly avoided being swept by the lowly Angels thanks to Ceddanne Rafaela’s 299-foot walk-off home run. Yankees series: I’ll start with the positives. The Red Sox ended up winning the series, taking two of three from the Yankees. On Friday night, Marcelo Mayer hit his first major league home run! The Yankees fan who caught the ball graciously returned the ball to Marcelo and received a signed bat from him. Again, much to everyone’s surprise, Trevor Story had a strong performance and bolstered the team’s offense. Story went hitless in the first game of the series but turned things around in the subsequent games. He hit five RBIs in Saturday’s game and recorded two hits and one RBI in four at-bats on Sunday. Story holds a .320/.393/.520 slash line in June. Maybe he’s heating up in support of Pride Month? He has been a notoriously streaky hitter throughout his career, but if he can sustain this level of production while Alex Bregman is injured, the team’s offense will benefit from it. Over the past week, the starting pitching has been the Red Sox’s biggest issue, not their offense. (This is baseball, and the team might pull a reverse Uno card on fans this week.) Nonetheless, the Red Sox are finding ways to score without Alex Bregman. Abraham Toro is also on a hot streak, and he hit a second-deck home run on Sunday night. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Abraham Toro, Carlos Narváez, and Kristian Campbell hit five total home runs on Sunday. Both Campbell and Story seem to be moving out of their slumps. Garrett Crochet and Hunter Dobbins looked solid in their respective outings as well, each throwing at least five innings On the other hand, Walker Buehler yielded seven runs (five earned) in two innings. Jazz Chisholm and Anthony Volpe hit home runs in the first inning off him, which irked me. Aaron Judge is currently having another historic season, and he’s a future Hall of Famer, so I give Red Sox pitchers a pass when they face him. However, Buehler gave up home runs to two of the Yankees’ most overrated, underperforming players in the first inning. For a pitcher fresh off a World Series win against the Yankees, Buehler should have pitched better. The Red Sox return home for a six-game homestand, featuring a three-game series against the Rays before playing the Yankees in another three-game weekend series. Random Stats: 5/26 – 6/1 Slash Lines Good weeks: Marcelo Mayer: .333/.429/.833, 242 wRC+ Abraham Toro: .417/.444/.667, 202 wRC+ Kristian Campbell: .294/.429/.529, 171 wRC+ Bad weeks: Wilyer Abreu: .200/.167/.200, -20 wRC+ Red Sox starter’s 7.01 ERA in the first inning is the second-worst in the majors behind the Colorado Rockies. Rafael Devers leads the American League in RBIs (57). On Saturday night, Roman Anthony launched a 497 ft (115.6 mph EV) grand slam versus the Rochester Red Wings. Anthony’s home run recorded the farthest hit distance among Red Sox players between Triple-A and MLB this year. Whether you’re looking at traditional fielding metrics or modern analytics, Kristan Campbell is by far the worst defensive second baseman in the league. Like Jarren Duran, Campbell’s struggles are related to the mental side of the game, and when he plays with confidence, things click for him. The 2025 Red Sox’s offense is an anomaly. See below for their offensive rankings in the American League: 127 doubles (1st) 330 runs (2nd) 318 RBIs (2nd) 617 strikeouts (2nd) 83 home runs (3rd) Despite these numbers, they rank first in the league for strikeouts with runners in scoring position (183). Website Highlights: Three Red Sox Prospects Named Player Of The Month For Their Respective Leagues by Nick John Connor Wong Has An Uncertain Future With Red Sox by Finley Rogan Can Ceddanne Rafaela Emulate Pete Crow-Armstrong's Breakout? by Maddie Landis Looking Ahead: June 9th – Tampa Bay Rays (Baz) at Red Sox (Bello) – 7:10 pm EDT June 10th – Tampa Bay Rays (Pepiot) at Red Sox (Giolito) – 7:10 pm EDT June 11th Tampa Bay Rays (Littell) at Red Sox (Buehler) – 7:10 pm EDT June 13th – Yankees at Red Sox – 7:10 pm EDT June 14th – Yankees at Red Sox – 7:15 pm EDT (Fox coverage) June 15th – Yankees at Red Sox – 1:35 pm EDT View full article

Maybe I’m just a sucker for Garrett Popcorn, but I find myself frequently rooting for the Chicago Cubs because of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs are an offensive powerhouse, largely thanks to PCA (not to discredit Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki’s contributions). Crow- Armstrong’s breakout season has shown baseball fans that heavy swing-and-miss hitters can be successful, MVP-caliber players. Now, Crow-Armstrong is an anomaly. He flips back and forth with Seiya Suzuki for the most RBIs in baseball and leads the National League in stolen bases and WAR, but if you check his Baseball Savant page, you'll find a lot of blue. PCA and Ceddanne Rafaela initially profile similarly as speedy, Gold Glove-caliber center fielders with middling plate discipline. On one hand, PCA is an MVP candidate for the Cubs, who are likely making a deep postseason run in the fall. Meanwhile, Rafaela is the free-swinging, defense-first centerfielder for the underperforming Red Sox, who currently hold a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs. However, their Savant pages share striking similarities. The primary difference between Crow-Armstrong and Rafaela ultimately boils down to launch angle and pull rate. Their batted ball profiles were nearly identical last season. This year? Not so much. Crow-Armstrong has a higher launch angle and pull rate, and a lower ground ball rate than Rafaela. Player Year Barrel% Launch Angle GB/FB GB% Pull% Pull GB% Pull Air% Pete Crow-Armstrong 2024 7.4 17.2 0.88 42.5 40.7 21.4 19.3 Ceddanne Rafaela 2024 7.5 14.9 1.14 42.5 37.2 20.1 17.1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 2025 13.6 23.3 0.48 27.8 44.3 14.8 29.5 Ceddanne Rafaela 2025 13.2 11.8 1.11 45.3 35.2 23.3 11.9 When Rafaela hits the ball in the opposite direction, it tends to result in an out (.337 xwOBA). The same goes for PCA (.299 xwOBA). Rafaela fares better when he pulls the ball — his xwOBA jumps to .422 in those events. Likewise, PCA’s xwOBA skyrockets to .592. Pulled balls typically result in higher exit velocities than balls hit to the opposite field, but Rafaela is an exception. His 39.4% opposite hard hit rate is 4.4% above the league average. (For pull-side balls, he holds a 51.9% hard hit rate.) As of late, he’s seen more success hitting the ball in the opposite direction. Given that Rafaela’s xwOBA split, exit velocity, and barrel rate are higher than PCA’s batted balls in the opposite direction, I think his overall offensive ceiling could be in the same stratosphere — he just needs to start pulling the ball more. Player Batted Ball Direction xWOBA EV (MPH) LA (°) Hard Hit% Barrle/PA% Attack Angle Swing Length Pete Crow-Armstrong Opposite 0.299 84.7 33 30.8 10.3 10° 7.1 Ceddanne Rafaela Opposite 0.337 88.6 27 39.4 12.1 7° 7.2 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pull 0.592 93.9 19 56.3 22.5 18° 7.4 Ceddanne Rafaela Pull 0.422 93.2 4 51.9 9.6 15° 7.7 As Davy Andrews noted, “The point is that the further out you hit the ball, the more likely you are to pull the ball, because your bat will be angled toward the pull side.” Looking at Statcast’s new swing metrics, it’s apparent that PCA is making contact with the ball in front of the plate more than Rafaela. Since he’s attacking the ball earlier, his launch angle is higher, resulting in a higher pulled fly ball rate and fewer ground balls. If Rafaela can make contact with the ball in front of the plate, he’ll pull the bar in the air more frequently and hit fewer ground balls. So, how does a player pull the bar in the air? Again, it ties to launch angle, but also swing length. Longer swing lengths correlate with higher pull rates, as batters must make contact with the ball in front of the plate to pull it. Rafaela has the second-longest swing length (7.5) on the Red Sox. His swing length is .3 ft longer than PCA’s, so he doesn’t have to alter his swing to pull the ball. By and large, when players hit the ball in front of the plate, their launch angle increases as they lift the ball on an upward trajectory (assuming they have an ideal swing path). Image credit to Driveline Rafaela’s lack of plate discipline could negatively affect his ability to hit the ball in front of the plate. Since last year, he’s made some strides at the plate. His strikeout rate is 19.2% (61st percentile), his whiff rate is 26.3% (38th percentile), and his walk rate is up to 4.7% (12th percentile). While his chase rate (46.4%, 2nd percentile) remains abysmal, he’s made some improvements to his swing decisions. Is there room to improve? Obviously, yes. Rafaela won’t turn into Juan Soto or Seiya Suzuki overnight, but if he can cut down his chase rate to at least around 35%, he’ll be in the same ballpark as Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodríguez. I haven't even touched on Rafaela's elite defense. He's at the top of the leaderboards for various Statcast fielding metrics, including fielding run value (2nd), arm strength (11th), and outs above average (5th). These rankings include other position players; if you separate these metrics by positional split, Rafaela is undoubtedly the best center fielder in the American League. Watch his rookie season defensive highlights. Rafaela was shifted to the infield during his rookie season, so his defensive prowess in center field wasn't fully realized. As a rookie playing out of his natural position, his bat suffered at second base, slashing .059/.059/.059, -86 wRC+ in eight games. It was average at shortstop with a .261/.269/.470, 101 wRC+ slash line across 81 games. Defensively, he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league, posting negative seven outs above average. To Rafaela's credit, he handled being moved out of position gracefully. Having him play center field regularly this year, though, is helping his bat. Ceddanne Rafaela can be a controversial player for Red Sox fans. Roman Anthony, baseball’s number one prospect, has been knocking at the door with a battering ram, and Rafaela is on a short leash for some. Until writing this article, I thought Rafaela should be benched for Anthony. Time is ticking for someone other than Rafael Devers or Alex Bregman to step up and help carry the team’s offense. If Rafaela can be like PCA, I’d rather keep him and try to move Wilyer Abreu. An outfield with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Ceddanne Rafaela is more competitive than one with Abreu, who remains a streaky platoon player in his sophomore season. Anthony and Rafaela complement each other — Rafaela could help Anthony improve his defense, and Anthony can teach Rafaela a thing or two about plate discipline. June and July will be telling months for Rafaela's career. He’s dealt with bad luck this year and has recently shown signs of turning a corner. Since June 1st, he’s slashed .433/.433/.867 with four home runs and six RBIs. In the Angels series, he hit three of these home runs, including a two-run walk-off shot. If Ceddanne Rafaela can put everything together, he'll become a household name like Pete Crow-Armstrong. View full article

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week 2-4 (Overall 28-32) Runs Scored Last Week: 16 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 21 Standings: 4th in the AL East 8.5 GB 1st Place 4.0 WCGB Scores: Game 56 (5/26) | BOS 2, MIL 3 Game 57 (5/27 | BOS 1, MIL 5 Game 58 (5/28) | BOS 5, MIL 6 Game 59 (5/30) | BOS 5, ATL 1 Game 60 (5/31) | BOS 0, ATL 5 Game 61 (6/1) | BOS 3, ATL 1 Transactions: 6/01/25: Placed Justin Slaten on the 15-day injured list (right shoulder inflammation) 6/01/25: Designated Blake Sabol for assignment 6/01/25: Optioned Nick Sogard to Triple-A Worcester 6/01/25: Recalled Luis Guerrero from Triple-A Worcester 5/26/25: Signed Allan Griman to a minor league contract 5/27/25: Traded Sean Newcomb to the Athletics for cash considerations 5/27/25: Optioned Zach Penrod to Triple-A Worcester 5/27/25: Optioned Zack Kelly to Triple-A Worcester 5/27/25: Activated Zach Penrod from the 60-day injured list 5/27/25: Signed Jorge Juan to a minor league contract 5/27/25: Sent Chris Murphy on a rehab assignment to Single-A Greenville 5/27/25: Activated Richard Fitts from the 15-day injured list 5/30/25: Recalled Nick Burdi from Triple-A Worcester 5/30/25: Placed Liam Hendriks on the 15-day injured list (right shoulder inflammation) TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights Brewers series: The Brewers series was simply embarrassing. The Red Sox blew three leads in a row, and they were playing sloppy baseball across the board. After the first game, Rob Refsnyder provided some blunt commentary on the team’s performance. Hendriks blew the second game in the 10th inning, yielding a walk-off grand slam to Christian Yelich. With the bases loaded in the final game of the series, Ceddanne Rafaela committed a terrible baserunning mistake. The team might have won the game if not for the error. In the 10th inning, Kristian Campbell made a bad throw to home that helped turn a single into a double. Let it be noted that the Brewers are on a hot streak. They just swept the Phillies, who held the best record in the National League at the start of the series. Perhaps it only takes a sweep of the Red Sox to make good teams look like the Rockies. Braves series: On Friday night, Marcelo Mayer made a nice play at third and finally celebrated his first win with the team. Much to everyone’s surprise, Trevor Story carried the team’s offense in Atlanta. He homered on Friday night and scored the team’s only three runs in Sunday’s game. Historically, he’s played well against the Braves. Since 2016, Story holds the highest wRC+ (191) split against the Braves as a shortstop with over 50 plate appearances. The Red Sox return home for a three-game series against the Angels before playing the Yankees for the first time this season in the Bronx. Note: the Saturday (Fox) and Sunday (ESPN) games will be broadcast on national television. I can’t wait to hear John Smoltz and Eduardo Pérez glaze the Yankees on two consecutive nights! Random Stats: 5/26 – 6/1 Slash Lines Good weeks: Ceddanne Rafaela: .438/.438/.688, 218 wRC+ Abraham Toro: .313/.313/.375, 120 wRC+ Kristan Campbell: .267/.313/.267, 62 wRC+ Campbell’s slugging percentage is obviously low. However, he recorded four hits in the past week, which is a good sign for him. Xander Bogaerts also performed poorly for a month in his rookie year. Bad weeks: Carlos Narváez: .176/.222/.235, 21 wRC+ Jarren Duran: .174/.208/.217, 11 wRC+ David Hamilton: .000/.000/.000, -100 wRC+ Why is David Hamilton still getting playing time? Saturday's game was the first shutout for the Red Sox this season. For a team that's three games under .500, it's impressive that they hadn't been shut out beforehand. The Red Sox bullpen has pitched 222.1 innings, the fourth most in baseball. Meanwhile, their starters have pitched 316.0 innings, placing them in the top third of the league. This is a little surprising, given that their starters usually don’t pitch past the fifth inning. Garrett Crochet currently leads pitchers with seven 100+ pitch games. Jarren Duran has the lowest on-base percentage (.322) among leadoff hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Connor Wong still hasn’t recorded an RBI or a home run. Between Lucas Giolito, Liam Hendriks, and Patrick Sandoval, the Red Sox have spent a total of $66.75 million on oft-injured, middling pitchers. (Sandoval still has yet to pitch a game in a Red Sox uniform, so I’m reserving judgment on him for now.) Website Highlights The Red Sox Are Awful In One-Run Games. How Can They Fix It? by Daniel Fox A Deep-Dive Into The Red Sox's Offensive Struggles Reveals Obvious Solutions by Daniel Fox Blaze Jordan's Hot Start Is Creating An Interesting Conversation In Red Sox Organization by Nick John Blaze Jordan was promoted to Worcester as I was writing this piece! Rob Refsnyder's "We Suck" Comments Are Correct, But Red Sox Need A Different Leader by Alex Mayes Looking Ahead: June 2nd – Los Angeles Angels (Anderson) at Red Sox (Fitts) – 7:10 pm EDT June 3rd – Los Angeles Angels (Kikuchi) at Red Sox (Bello) – 7:10 pm EDT June 4th – Los Angeles Angels (Soriano) at Red Sox (Giolito) – 1:35 pm EDT June 6th – Red Sox at Yankees – 7:05 pm EDT June 7th – Red Sox at Yankees – 7:35 pm EDT (Fox coverage) June 8th – Red Sox at Yankees – 6:30 pm EDT (ESPN coverage) View full article

Happy Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month! The Asian American and Pacific Islander community has made its mark in MLB, garnering various accolades and industry-wide recognition. In honor of the special month, I’ll be exploring potential Nippon Professional Baseball offseason acquisitions for the Red Sox. With the uncertainty surrounding Triston Casas' future in baseball, the organization needs a long-term solution at first base. Since 2018, the organization’s first base production ranks 25th in baseball (net 5.9 WAR). So far this season, Romy Gonzalez has produced the most WAR (0.2) at first. Pete Alonso headlines the upcoming free agent first base group, assuming the Mets don’t rework his contract. He’s posting insane numbers thus far and could be a potential, albeit costly, solution for the Red Sox. Other first base options include Josh Naylor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Rhys Hoskins (mutual option). Moving across the infield, Alex Bregman is posting career-high numbers with the Red Sox, and he’s expected to opt out of his three-year, $120 million contract. The Cubs, Phillies, Tigers, and Yankees need upgrades at third, and there will be a stronger market for Bregman in the upcoming offseason. Eugenio Suárez and Max Muncy (club option) will also be free agents, but they’re on the wrong side of 30. Don’t fret! Not one, but two free agents beyond the domestic confines of the mainland United States address the Red Sox’s needs at first and third. Munetaka Murakami, 26, 1B/3B/DH Despite his oblique injury hindering his playing time this year, Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami will be the crown jewel of the 2025-26 offseason. He’s primarily listed as a third baseman, but he won’t be playing there in the majors. The Nippon League is currently in a dead-ball era, and the lack of offense props up Murakami’s career fielding stats (.943 FP) at third. On the other side of the infield, Murakami is a competent first baseman. He’s only recorded 11 errors across eight seasons at the position. His .994 career fielding percentage puts him a knock below Matt Olson, Carlos Santana, and Pete Alonso, a solid group of defenders. Murakami is best known for his bat. In 2022, he won the Triple Crown in the Nippon League, the Central League MVP for the second time in his career, and he hit 56 home runs, marking a new NPB record. He sees virtually every pitch type well. One of my concerns with Murakami is his plate discipline. He holds a 29.5% career strikeout rate. His zone swing rate has remained stagnant throughout his career, while his whiff rate has dramatically increased over the past four years. He posted the worst contact rate in the Nippon League between 2023 (65.7%) and 2024 (62.7%). Speaking of velocity, Murakami also struggles against high-velocity fastballs. Only 6% of his home runs were hit off fastballs over 150 km/h (93.21 mph). Nearly a quarter (24.79%) of his home runs came from fastballs below 149 km/h (below 92.58 mph). Back in 2022, Fangraphs noted that the average fastball velocity gap between the Nippon and Major League is slowly narrowing. Murakami’s lack of plate discipline, high strikeout numbers, and issues with high-velocity pitches raise some alarms for his transition to the majors. However, the drop off in his stats coincides with the NPB’s dead ball era, beginning in 2023. Even in an "off" year, Murakami hit 33 home runs - two more than the team’s leader, Tyler O'Neill (32), in 2024. Kazuma Okamoto, 29 1B/3B Kazuma Okamoto is another NPB free-agent target for the Red Sox. Like Murakami, Okamoto plays first (.996 FP) and third (.966 FP), though his defense is more sound than Murakami’s. Okamoto provides power as a righty, hitting at least 27 home runs per season since 2018. He doesn’t strike out often (16.5% career K-rate), and he fares well versus fastballs greater than 150 km/h, slashing .277/.368/.528 (58 RBIs, 19 home runs, and 150 wRC+). Okamoto is about four years older than Murakami, so there’s some concern about how he’ll hold up as he ages. He’s currently missing part of the 2025 season due to a left elbow injury. Unlike Rōki Sasaki, Murakami and Okamoto will not be subject to international bonus pool restrictions. Both players are over 25 years old and have more than six years of service time in NPB, making them eligible to sign MLB contracts without limitations. Money talks, and the Red Sox have the financial resources to pursue either player aggressively. While their international scouting presence in Asia isn’t as strong as the Cubs or Dodgers, the organization maintains a presence in Japan. Following Sportsology Inc.’s internal front-office audit, international scouts Kento Matsumoto (Japan) and Won-Sang Lee (South Korea) are reportedly still employed by the Red Sox. Notably, Matsumoto helped scout Masataka Yoshida. That said, no matter what scouting and analysts’ reports suggest, we can’t come to a consensus on an international free agent’s performance in MLB until they get meaningful playing time. Early evaluations of Masataka Yoshida suggested that he could be a better player than Seiya Suzuki, but Yoshida’s tenure in Boston has been marred by injuries. Now in the third year of his five-year, $90 million contract, he’s only appeared in 248 games, whereas Suzuki is a well-rounded contributor with his bat and glove. Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are currently missing playing time due to injuries. Given that the Red Sox already have a costly, oft-injured Japanese player on their team, potentially adding another one carries significant risk. Still, both Murakami and Okamoto offer more defensive value and greater power potential than Yoshida. Risk often correlates with reward, and 30+ home run-caliber first basemen don’t hit the market every offseason. At the very least, the Red Sox should be doing their due diligence and actively monitoring both players ahead of a key offseason for their emerging young core. View full article