Maddie Landis

Major League Baseball has enjoyed a legal monopoly for over a century. Now, its chosen licensing partner is gobbling up competitors like there's no tomorrow while lowering quality and raising prices. The lack of quality options in the licensed sports market is increasingly frustrating for fans, especially as apparel prices continue to rise and quality declines. One company is at the heart of this discontent. If you’ve spent any time on social media in the past year, you’ve probably seen complaints about the quality of Fanatics products. Has this hurt the company's revenue? No. Sportico recently reported that Fanatics' revenue jumped to $8.1 billion in 2024, a 15% increase from the previous year, and broke down the company's revenue: Fanatics dipped its toes in the collectibles market, acquiring Topps in 2022, as well as online sports betting, with the creation of Fanatics Sportsbook in 2023. Most of its revenue comes from Fanatics Commerce, which designs, manufactures, and distributes its merchandise and other companies' products. Despite the grievances, people are still buying Fanatics products, but not necessarily because they want to. There aren’t many other options to purchase from, and that's by design. Over the past eight years, Fanatics secured long-term licensing deals with all four major US sports leagues, in addition to Major League Soccer, Formula 1, an ever-growing list of NCAA teams, and the Australian Football League. More recently, it has been buying up competitors. In December 2020, Fanatics bought WinCraft, another licensed sports goods company. The company acquired Mitchell & Ness, a prominent vintage sportswear apparel company, in early 2022, and last year, they became the majority holder of Lids, a major hat retailer. Fanatics isn’t limited to consumer sportswear apparel; it also has an exclusive partnership with Nike to distribute player uniforms for the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball. Following the official rollout of the new MLB uniforms in 2024, Fanatics faced a wave of scrutiny from players (and fans) due to the subpar quality. Red Sox reliever Zack Kelly stated, “The numbers look like iron-ons….A big-league uniform should be special. It was hard for me to get here and for other guys, too. I think there will be some changes. I hope so.” MLB is reportedly transitioning back to the older uniform templates this year with larger player names and numbers, the older fabric, and customizable pants. NHL fans have had similar complaints. Cornell's Legal Information Institute provides a definition of a monopoly: “When a single company or entity creates an unreasonable restraint of competition in a market….In essence, the term monopoly may be used any time that a market for a good is controlled by a limited number of actors.” Getting more specific, case law has established precedents to identify a firm’s monopoly power. United States of America, v. Dentsply International held that “Absent other pertinent factors, a share significantly larger than 55% has been required to establish prima facie market power.” Market research firm Mordor Intelligence estimates the size of the licensed sports market a $37.51 billion. In December 2022, Fanatics' valuation reached $31 billion. With an expansive portfolio that includes Fanatics Collectibles, Fanatics Betting & Gaming, Fanatics Collect, and Fanatics Events, it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact contribution of Fanatics Commerce to their valuation. Given that Fanatics Commerce generates 77% of the company’s revenue ($6.1 billion in 2024), it’s evident that the division holds a dominant market share. During the nineteenth century, powerful robber barons like Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller, and Cornelius Vanderbilt to create monopolies in their respective industries through ruthless anti-competitive tactics and currying favor from pro-business with politicians. Carnegie Steel Company controlled the steel industry’s supply chain. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil oversaw 90% of the United States’ oil pipelines and refineries. Vanderbilt dominated the shipping and railroad industry. Facing public concerns over the power of large corporations, Congress passed the Sherman Antitrust Act in 1890 and Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914 to protect consumers from unfair monopolistic practices. Despite those practices, Major League Baseball enjoys a legal monopoly. The league's antitrust exemption has been upheld by the Supreme Court three times in the past century. Federal Baseball Club v. National League (1922) unanimously ruled that “Organized Baseball is not interstate commerce and does not constitute an attempt to monopolize within the Sherman Act.” Toolson v. New York Yankees, Inc. (1952) upheld Federal in a 7-2 vote, basing their decision on stare decisis. Once again, the Supreme Court reaffirmed Federal’s ruling in Flood v. Kuhn (1972). MLB is currently facing an antitrust lawsuit. Plaintiff Casey Distributing, a licensed sports hard goods seller, alleged that MLB and Fanatics breached the Sherman Act: “MLB, Fanatics, and certain horizontally competing licensees and retailers have entered into various agreements that serve to severely limit Fanatics’ and Defendants’ competition on TPOMs.” The case currently remains open. Its most recent update was in August of 2023 when MLB requested additional time to submit briefs in support of its motion to dismiss the lawsuit. Fanatics isn’t slowing down. In October 2024, Fanatics Sportsbook signed a nonexclusive deal with the MLBPA to use MLB player names, images, and likenesses in advertising. The deal emerged a couple of weeks after the MLBPA sued FanDuel, DraftKings, bet365, and Underdog Fantasy for unauthorized use of names, images, and likenesses. Fanatics Collectibles, whose portfolio includes Topps, Bowman, and the English Premier League, will open its first flagship European store in London this spring. Antitrust law is very complicated and very political. Casey’s outcome is yet to be determined. Since MLB and the MLBPA hold financial stakes in Fanatics, it’s improbable that they would want the company to face antitrust penalties. The Department of Justice is currently engaged in a lawsuit with Ticketmaster. Once this case is settled, the DOJ could potentially shift its focus to Fanatics. Consumers deserve a broader range of choices when purchasing licensed sports apparel. Fortunately, platforms like eBay and Depop offer quality vintage options free of the ubiquitous Fanatics logo. Additionally, 47 Brand remains independent — at least for now. However, as Fanatics aggressively expands its presence, avoiding it has become nearly impossible. View full article

Aside from Fried, the Braves initial wave of prospects from 2017-2021 didn't include many pitchers. Their second wave of prospects contains more pitchers, ex. Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder (2022), AJ Smith-Shawver (2023), Spencer Schwellenbach (2024) and Hurston Waldrep (2024). The Red Sox drafted 14 pitchers last year so I think the pitching prospects will come in time, possibly a couple of years after this current group. I agree though that the pitching side is significantly lighter than the Braves... Amongst our current group of pitchers, we don't have big names that jump out like Strider or Fried. However, many frontline pitchers (Tarik Skubal and Zac Gallen off the top of my head) were drafted in later rounds.

Thanks to team-friendly extensions and a willingness to move on when before fan favorites hit their decline phase, Atlanta is now six years into a sustained run of excellence. Can the Red Sox follow their lead? From 2014 to 2017, the Braves were a mediocre team, mustering losing records in four consecutive seasons. The 2017 Atlanta Braves finished third in the National League East with a 72-90 record. The following season, they reversed their record to 90-72 and claimed their first division title in five years. Under the helm of their new general manager, Alex Anthopolous, the Braves ushered in a new era of sustained success, netting six division titles from 2018 to 2023, including back-to-back 100-win seasons in 2022 and 2023. The Braves have utilized three key strategies to achieve sustainable success: A strong core of prospects emerging in subsequent seasons. Sustainable financial management. A demonstrated willingness to part ways with homegrown talent. Talent Pipeline The Braves have built a consistent pipeline of talent that’s been a key factor in their sustained success. In 2017, Ozzie Albies and Max Fried made their big league debuts. In 2018, the league witnessed Ronald Acuña Jr.'s meteoric rise to stardom. In 2019, Austin Riley broke into the major leagues. In 2022, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II joined the Braves roster. In 2024, Spencer Schwellenbach stepped up and made his mark in the big leagues, contributing to the Braves injury-laden rotation. Looking at 2026 and beyond, Jose Perdomo (SS), Hurston Waldrep (RP), and Drake Baldwin (C) are amongst the next wave of prospects to contribute to the team. The steady influx of homegrown impact talent gives the team valuable internal resources, reduces the need for free-agent signings, and provides financial flexibility. Financial Sustainability Despite being a large market team, the Braves spend their money wisely. According to Cot's Contracts, Atlanta's 2025 payroll is currently the ninth-highest in baseball. The Braves' core has been built around buying out their homegrown players' arbitration years and retaining them during their prime. Only 2.1% of the Braves' 2025 roster is arbitration-eligible, the lowest percentage in the league. 2B: Ozzie Albies (28), seven years, $35 million from 2019-2025 with 2026-27 club options 3B: Austin Riley (27), 10 years, $212 million from 2023-2032 with 2033 club option OF: Ronald Acuña Jr. (27), eight years, $100 million from 2019-2026 with 2027-28 club options OF: Michael Harris II (23), eight years, $72 million from 2023-2030 with 2031-32 club options SP: Spencer Strider (26), six year, $75 million from 2023-2028 with 2029 club option When you consider these players' performances, their contracts look like bargains. Generally speaking, MLB players reach their peak performance between the ages of 27 and 29, with a typical decline starting around age 30. The Braves' core is secured through their prime years, and their extensions also account for potential aging curves. Factoring in club options, Albies' contract ends at age 30, Acuña's at age 30, Harris's at age 31, and Strider's at age 30. Moreover, the Braves are quick to pounce on extensions with players they acquired via trade. 1B: Matt Olson (30), eight years, $168 million from 2022-2029 C: Sean Murphy (30), six years, $73 million from 2023-2028 with a 2029 club option SP: Reynaldo López (31), three years $30 million from 2025-2027 RP: Raisel Iglesias (35), four years, $58 million from 2022-2025 Aside from shortstop and one or two outfield positions, their starting nine and rotation have been set since 2022. Since their core is retained throughout the next decade, the Braves aren’t connected to premier free agents in the offseason. Who needs Juan Soto when you have Acuña at home? The Braves have shown a demonstrated willingness to part ways with homegrown talent either via free agency or trades. Consider the following moves: March 2022: Traded Cristian Pache, Shea Langeliers, Joey Estes, and Ryan Cusick for Matt Olson (27) March 2022: Freddie Freeman (33), signed a six-year, $162-million contract with the Dodgers December 2022: Dansby Swanson (29), signed a seven-year, $177-million contract with the Cubs December 2022: William Contreras (25), acquired Sean Murphy November 2024: Travis d’Arnaud (35): signed a two-year, $12-million contract with the Angels December 2024: Max Fried (30): signed an eight-year, $218-million contract with the Yankees The Braves have a history of letting homegrown talent walk, but they consistently fill those spots with younger, often comparable (if not better) players. They were happy to let Freddie Freeman walk with the younger, cheaper Matt Olson available. Dansby Swanson was another key departure, but the Braves were able to redirect resources toward extending players like Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy. In December 2022, the Braves moved William Contreras, who they viewed more as a designated hitter, for Sean Murphy, a defense-first catcher. Subsequently, the Braves had the best catching tandem in the league with Travis d’Arnaud and Sean Murphy. Going into the 2024 season, the Braves needed an everyday outfielder. They traded Jackson Kowar and Cole Philips to the Mariners for Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzalez, and Evan White. This wasn’t the flashiest move for the Braves, but it filled a need for the team, and they secured a young, cost-controlled outfielder for the future. This offseason the Braves chose not to pursue Travis d’Arnaud and Max Fried. Both players are aging, and they have a considerable number of pitching prospects and Drake Baldwin who can take over d’Arnaud’s role as backup catcher in the future. Is it possible for other teams, like the Red Sox, to mimic the Braves' sustained success? The Red Sox' current roster construction model closely aligns with the Braves' strategies, suggesting that a similar approach could lead to long-term success. Talent Pipeline Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are expected to make their major league debuts this year. If he has an outstanding year in Worcester, Marcelo Mayer could also see some big-league action later in the season. Beyond 2025, David Sandlin (friend of the Talk Sox podcast) and Jhostynxon Garcia could join the team in 2026. Though he isn’t a homegrown prospect, Grissom is akin to a new player for the Red Sox this year. While conducting research for this piece, I noticed that Braves infielders usually have one to two “bad” seasons before finding their stride: Dansby Swanson slashed .246/.322/.348, 77 OPS+, and 0.9 bWAR during his first two seasons. Ozzie Albies’ WAR jumped from 1.3 in 2017 to 4.1 in 2018. Austin Riley had a negative WAR from 2019 to 2020 before he produced a 6.3 WAR season in 2021. Given the trend of Braves infielders taking a couple of seasons to fully develop, Grissom could be the key difference-maker, potentially turning the team from a .500 record into a wild-card contender. At the very least, he should have a shot to be the starting second baseman this year. He partook in the annual Story camp and looks healthier than he did last year. Some players face growing pains at the major league level. Many Red Sox fans wrote off Jarren Duran before his breakout 2024 season. During his rookie year, Casas looked like a lost cause before posting monster numbers during the second half of the season. Sustainable Financials The Red Sox currently have a cost-controlled core to build around. Rafael Devers (28): 10-year, $313.5 million from 2024-2033 Brayan Bello (25): 6-year, $55 million from 2024-2029 with a 2030 club option Ceddane Rafaela (24) - 8-year, $50 million from 2024-2031, with a 2032 club option Factoring in club options, Devers' contract ends at age 37, Bello’s contract ends at age 31, and Rafaela’s at age 32, so the Red Sox have control of these players through their prime. The team has a plethora of young talent that can be signed to reasonable cost-controlled deals. Triston Casas, Tanner Houck, and Garret Crochet are extension targets. If Roman Anthony hits the ground running after he’s called up, he’s also in the mix for an extension. Since the Red Sox haven’t gone after premier free agents, such as Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, this offseason, they have money to allocate toward extending Crochet. The Red Sox spent money for the sake of it and are now stuck with Masataka Yoshida, who doesn’t fit with the team’s current roster construction. Signing Alex Bregman might lead to another Yoshida conundrum. The Red Sox have a lot of right-handed second-base depth with Vaughn Grissom, Romy Gonzalez, and Kristian Campbell. All of whom hit left-handed pitchers better than Bregman in recent years. Money is finite, and I’d rather see the Red Sox leverage their second base depth for the 2025 season rather than commit to a long-term contract with Bregman. The funds for his contract could be better spent on player extensions. Parting Ways With Homegrown Talent The Red Sox traded Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, and Wikelman González to the White Sox for Crochet. Amongst this group of prospects, Teel is the closest to his major league debut. Meidroth was blocked by the aforementioned group of second baseman and Montgomery and González’s major league ETA isn’t imminent. Starting pitching, especially a left-handed option, was a known need for the team, and the Red Sox nabbed the frontline trade target of the 2024-2025 offseason. On the same day the Red Sox traded Teel, they acquired Carlos Narváez, a defense-first catcher, to help offset the loss. Jarren Duran is set to become a free agent in 2033, at the age of 33. The Red Sox should keep him during his arbitration years, but let him walk once he hits free agency. As he ages, his speed is likely to decline, and it's a huge piece of his game. It’s more prudent to invest in younger players instead. The Braves are the perfect model for roster construction, demonstrating controlled, sustainable success, and the Red Sox have the opportunity to emulate their approach. There’s a wave of prospects ready to join the Red Sox in the upcoming years. They have the financial flexibility to extend young talent like Crochet, Casas, and Anthony, allowing them to build upon their core of Devers, Bello, and Rafaela. The Red Sox should continue to spend their money wisely and avoid large free-agent signings when they have a ton of talent knocking at the door. However, that doesn’t mean they should refrain from investing in the team. After all, they’re one of the most valuable sports franchises. Locking up their young talent and filling roster holes with shrewd free agent signings is the best way to follow the Braves. View full article

After returning from the holidays and New Years, Adam, Alex and Maddie discuss the Red Sox signing Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval. They answer questions like: Should Boston go with a six man rotation? If not, which starter pitcher do you leave out of the mix? Should the Red Sox trade Masataka Yoshida? Triston Casas? Wilyer Abreyu? And what is the deal with Roki Sasaki? Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

December is upon us! Can you believe it? The holidays are right around the corner and pitchers and catchers will be reporting before we know it. Looking for the perfect gift for a Red Sox fan, but don't know where to start? Check out Talk Sox’s Holiday Gift Guide. Apparel New Era and the Boston-based '47 offer a wide selection of Red Sox clothing for adults and children to showcase their team spirit with modern and retro designs. Whether you’re looking for a new hoodie, hat, t-shirt, or jacket, both stores have you covered. Fanatics sells official MLB jerseys. Not a fan of the new Fanatics jerseys? You can find vintage ones from Majestic, Russell Athletic, and other brands on eBay. How about a 1975 Bill Lee home jersey? The Dream Shop and City Colors can customize jerseys if you want something particular. Personally, I'm not a fan of the replica home jerseys with player's names on the backs that are sold online. Bill from The Dream Shop is a pleasure to work with and helped me make a custom Casas jersey. (Note: If you place an order with him now, it probably won't arrive in time for the holidays, but he also sells gift cards.) If you're looking for something less formal, BreakingT might be more up your alley. They've got a wide selection of Red Sox t-shirts celebrating players from the team's past and present. Fenway Dirt Fanatics also sells collectibles and memorabilia, including dirt from Fenway Park. What better way to tell that special someone you care than a shaker full of dirt? It's better than a lump of coal. Dugout Mugs Made from wooden baseball bats, Dugout Mugs are a unique addition to any mug collection, and they have a wide variety of Red Sox mugs . Dugout Mugs has also collaborated with Tanner Houck’s charity, Pitch for Adoption. A portion of the proceeds from Houck's Mug will benefit the Caritas Family Solutions. Wall Art Etsy sellers, CozyBurrowStudio and HomeArenaDesigns, sell tasteful, handmade art that celebrates the Red Sox, Boston, and all of Massachusetts. The sign below is from HomeArenaDesigns. Books Red Sox Century: The Definitive History of Baseball's Most Storied Franchise, Expanded and Updated by Glenn Stout and Richard A. Johnson If you want a general overview of Red Sox history from its establishment in 1904 to the 2004, this is the go-to book. Spanning 544 pages, this book is filled with photographs and well-written articles, making it a great coffee table accent for a subtle touch of Red Sox flair. Francona: The Red Sox Years by Terry Francona and Dan Shaughnessy Francona outlines Francona’s playing career to the start of his managerial tenure in Cleveland. If you haven't watched it yet, this book is a great segway into Netflix’s “The Comeback: 2004 Boston Red Sox” documentary (though 2004 only encompasses a small portion of the book). Francona will manage the Cincinnati Reds next year, and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the team. Homegrown: How the Red Sox Built a Champion from the Ground Up by Alex Speier Speier is a phenomenal writer, and Homegrown follows the journeys of the 2018 World Series core. It’s a bittersweet read, knowing these players sport other team’s uniforms in the present-day. The MVP Machine: How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik The MVP Machine is an insightful read about modern baseball player development and technology. Lindbergh and Sawchik aren’t solely sports journalists, and you can tell their take on the sport differs from a “traditional” writer such as Dan Shaughnessy. Tickets Nothing beats watching a baseball game at Fenway! Even though the 2025 Red Sox schedule has already been released, single-game tickets aren’t available yet. However, 2025 season tickets are available now. The Tenth Man Plan is the smallest package with tickets to 10 games (as its name suggests). If you want to be notified when single-game tickets are on sale, sign up for the Red Sox email newsletter. Memorabilia Are you looking for some game-used memorabilia? MLB Auctions has a wide range of game-used memorabilia from signed baseballs, bases, and bats. The Jersey Street Store also features a sizeable collection of baseballs signed by current and former Red Sox players and yearbooks/media guides from the past. Do you have any additional Red Sox gift recommendations? Let us know below in the comments! View full article

Talk Sox recently unveiled a fun tool to build-your-own 2025 roster. For this exercise, I’m using projected contract values outlined in an Athletic article by Tim Britton and the MLB Trade Rumors Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2025. The 2025 CBT threshold is $241 million. Sox Stats outlined on the team’s financial situation on Blue Sky: “The Red Sox current sit roughly $63M under the luxury tax threshold. If they spend more, up to $83M this winter, their only penalty is a $4M tax. They can spend $103M and their only penalty is a $12M tax. After that, it's higher taxes and your first-round pick is moved down 10 spots.” Based on Sam Kennedy’s recent comments, the Red Sox are prepared to pay the competitive balance tax so they could dish out $103 million in contracts this offseason. Starting Rotation Max Fried Tanner Houck Garret Crochet Brayan Bello Lucas Giolito Bullpen Tanner Scott Justin Slaten Liam Hendriks Garrett Whitlock Cooper Criswell Luis Guerrero Greg Weissert Brennan Bernardino Lineup CF: Jarren Duran LF: Juan Soto 3B: Rafael Devers 1B: Triston Casas SS: Trevor Story DH: Masataka Yoshida 2B: Vaughn Grissom C: Connor Wong RF: Ceddanne Rafaela Bench OF: Rob Refsnyder UTL: David Hamilton UTL: Romy Gonzalez C: Carson Kelly Free Agent Acquisitions LHP Max Fried, 6-year, $180 million contract Max Fried is a perfect fit for the Red Sox. He’s an elite southpaw and the Red Sox rotation lacks a frontline lefthanded starter. He’s a proven ace and led the Brave’s starter’s pitchers in WAR (15.4) from 2020-24. He’s a clubhouse guy. He’s best friends with Lucas Giolito (and Jack Flaherty). Fried is more consistent than he’s given credit for. He posts well below league-average ERA and FIP. His K% rate grades above league average. His metrics don’t scream a sudden decline. He’s represented by the Baseball Team at CAA, not Scott Boras, so his contract shouldn’t be too egregious. OF Juan Soto, 12-year, $540 million contract It’s Juan Soto. Enough said. C Carson Kelly, 2-year, $14 million contract, mutual option I wrote about Carson Kelly last week. In recent years, Kelly’s bat hasn’t held up, but he’s a competent defender who would provide balance for Connor Wong’s defensive woes. LHP Tanner Scott, 4-year, $64 million contract It’s unlikely that Kenley Jansen will resign with the Red Sox. They need a proven closer. Garrett Whitlock and Liam Hendriks return to the bullpen, but both are coming back from injuries. They could pitch poorly so Tanner Scott could help offset any of their setbacks and gives Alex Cora a go-to guy in the 9th. Trade Targets: LHP Garrett Crochet, $2.9 million Red Sox Trade: OF Wilyer Abreu, SP Kutter Crawford, OF Jhostynxon Garcia (“The Password”) Red Sox Receive, SP Garrett Crochet Crochet is frequently brought up as a trade target for the Red Sox. Given their annus horribilis, the White Sox will/should be desperate for any help they can get. Crochet has only pitched one solid season, so the White Sox's asking price shouldn’t be too high. Since he was a former relief pitcher, he doesn’t have that much mileage on his arm. He’s cheap, and the Red Sox have the financial capability to offer him an extension. It seems like the perfect deal if they can trade for him without giving up any of the Big Four. With these moves, the Red Sox payroll would increase to $230.30 million next year. It gives them some wiggle room to take on additional contracts at the trade deadline and fills the team’s need for left-handed starting pitchers, bullpen depth, and a bonafide Hall-of-Fame player. C: Connor Wong ($0.78M) 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.78M) 2B: Vaughn Grissom ($0.78M) 3B: Rafael Devers ($29.00M) SS: Trevor Story ($23.33M) LF: Juan Soto ($40.00M) CF: Jarren Duran ($4.90M) RF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M) DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.00M) 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($1.95M) Utility: David Hamilton ($0.78M) Utility: Romy Gonzalez ($0.77M) Backup C: Carson Kelly ($6.00M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Max Fried ($30.00M) SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.50M) SP3: Garrett Crochet ($2.90M) SP4: Brayan Bello ($9.17M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.25M) RP: Tanner Scott ($11.50M) RP: Justin Slaten ($0.78M) RP: Liam Hendriks ($10.00M) RP: Garrett Whitlock ($5.50M) RP: Cooper Criswell ($0.76M) RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.78M) RP: Greg Weissert ($0.78M) RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.76M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 11.11% over budget

The Red Sox definitely need to land some pitching, but catching is extremely important, and the free agent market is extremely thin. It's time to act. The bond between a catcher and a pitcher is often regarded as the most important relationship in baseball. The catcher orchestrates the game, calling pitches and helping the pitcher throw their best stuff. The pitcher and catcher must be in sync. Frontline starters need a reliable catcher to work with. Former catcher Brett Mayne once said, “What's the most important part of the game? Pitching. If it wasn't, why would teams throw this kind of money around lately? [That said] you have to have a good catcher. It's like having a phenomenal racehorse, but no jockey. Will the horse win the race without one? Probably not.” The Red Sox lack both an ace and a reliable catcher. In recent years, the catcher position has remained a revolving door. Since 2023, Red Sox catchers have generated a total of 2.7 fWAR, which ranks 25th in the league. Catchers Reese McGuire, Connor Wong, and Danny Jansen yielded varying results for the Red Sox rotation last season. Pitcher Catcher G IP ERA Brayan Bello Reese McGuire 23 116 4.89 Brayan Bello Connor Wong 37 205.1 4.03 Brayan Bello Danny Jansen 8 39 3.23 Tanner Houck Reese McGuire 11 62.1 2.60 Tanner Houck Connor Wong 38 204.2 4.00 Tanner Houck Danny Jansen 3 17.2 5.09 Kutter Crawford Reese McGuire 19 86 3.77 Kutter Crawford Connor Wong 44 214 4.58 Kutter Crawford Danny Jansen 5 25 7.20 Brayan Bello’s 2024 second-half resurgence could be attributed to Jansen, who joined the team at the trade deadline. Jansen caught eight games for Bello, whose ERA dropped to 3.47 following the trade deadline. Conversely, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford’s ERA ballooned when pitching to Jansen. Since Jansen became a free agent, Wong remains the sole veteran catcher on the 40-man roster. Oof. The organization doesn’t see prospect Kyle Teel making the 2025 Opening Day roster. When asked about Teel’s major league readiness, Craig Breslow emphasized, “What’s most important for him is to continue to develop.” After being promoted to Triple-A, Teel got off to a slow start, slashing .214/.306/.321 in August. He finished strong, recording a .375/.516/.542 slash line in September. With Teel in Triple-A for an indefinite amound of time next season, the Red Sox need a veteran, defense-first backup catcher who can fortify the position until he graduates from the minors. As much as I like Wong, he's an offense-first catcher. Wong alone isn’t enough to entice a frontline starter to the Red Sox. This offseason the Red Sox have seemingly been showing interest in every premier free agent from Willy Adames to Blake Snell to Juan Soto. However, they aren’t linked to any catchers, whose market is moving quicker than expected. Travis d’Arnaud, arguably the top catcher in the class, has already signed a two-year, $12-million contract with the Angels. As a former pitcher, Breslow is aware of the importance of the relationship between the pitcher and catcher. He clarified that the team is in the market for a backup catcher, stating, “We’ll certainly explore opportunities to get better….That includes potentially in kind of a backup role to Connor or however, things shake out.” A pitcher’s success is often attributed to the performance of his catcher. Signing a frontline starter, but neglecting their need for a catcher is equivalent to purchasing a Porsche and neglecting its maintenance by filling it with regular unleaded gasoline. This offseason feels different. Various third-party sources outside the Red Sox have indicated they’re looking to make a big splash in the offseason. They surprisingly emerged as a legitimate contender for Juan Soto, which wasn’t on anybody’s offseason bingo card. However, the Red Sox must get their priorities straight and solidify their catching depth before making a strong push for a frontline starter and/or any once-in-a-generation outfielders. Given the rotation’s mixed results with Danny Jansen, a reunion probably isn't in the pitching staff’s best interest. Kyle Higashioka and Carson Kelly are two of the best remaining options on the free agent market. I highly doubt that either will sign for more money than d’Arnaud, so they’re affordable. A one-year deal with a mutual option after the first year would provide Teel with more to develop and do so without jamming the team’s budget. Name Age BA OBP K% HR RBI wRC+ fWAR Kyle Higashioka 34 .220 .263 28.1% 17 45 105 1.6 Carson Kelly 29 .238 .313 17.6% 9 32 99 1.8 There aren’t any huge concerns surrounding either player’s offense. Personally, I don’t expect a catcher to generate a ton of runs. Their most important duty is to provide sound defense. If they can do so while providing a roughly league-average offensive line, they’re doing their job well. At first glance, Higashioka’s bat has more thump than Kelly's, with almost double the amount of home runs and a higher wRC+. However, Kelly’s strikeout rate is lower and overall these differences are marginal. Frontline starters’ catching splits indicate that Higashioka and Kelly complement top-tier starting pitchers. Michael King, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish pitched well when Kyle Higashioka caught for them. Tarik Skubal, Zac Gallen, and Jack Flaherty posted solid numbers with Carson Kelly. Defensively, Higashioka and Kelly diverge, but they still mark a significant improvement over Connor Wong’s defense. According to Statcast, Higashioka falls in the 8th percentile in blocking, the 27th percentile in catching base stealers, the 65th percentile in framing, and the 10th percentile in pop time (2.02 seconds). His defensive performance isn’t what it used to be. Conversely, Kelly grades out in the 63rd percentile in blocking, 85th for in catching stealers, the 68th percentile in framing, and 38th in pop time(1.97 seconds). Kelly is a stellar defender with youth on his side. However, it's important to note that framing is by far the most important part of the job, and Higashioka and Kelly grade out fairly similarly there. On another, more random note, Higashioka is a fourth-generation Japanese American who reportedly learned some Japanese to connect with former Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Why is this important? Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese pitching phenom will be posted by the Chibba Lotte Marines. Sasaki is an affordable option who could sign with any team. Since money is no object to him, The Athletic reported he will “prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development”. A Japanese-speaking catcher like Higashioka could help lure Sasaki to the Red Sox. Since they both speak Japanese, he could assist Sasaki in acclimating to life in a foreign country. Along with Masataka Yoshida, Sasaki would also have a friend who shares the experience of transitioning from the Nippon League to Major League Baseball. That said, the team already has a strong record in player development and Boston recently ranked as the second happiest city to live in the U.S. Signing a player solely to attract another is ill-advised. It’s speculated that Chaim Bloom did this with Masataka Yoshida in an attempt to entice Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who ultimately signed with the Dodgers. The Red Sox are currently stuck with an expensive, slap-hitting DH. Given Wong’s paltry defense, the Red Sox should prioritize Kelly, a defense-first catcher. Kelly is younger than Higashioka and has plenty of knowledge and experience, with eight years of major-league playing time. He could mentor Kyle Teel and be the bridge until Teel is major league-ready. If Wong has another slump halfway through the season, Kelly could fill the primary catcher role. His spray chart indicates that he could capitalize on Fenway’s wonky dimensions to generate extra-base hits. Looking far down the road, Kelly has a solid relationship with Zac Gallen, who could be a free-agent target next year. At the moment, the Red Sox's catching depth is miles behind their competitors for starting pitchers. The Blue Jays and Orioles have Alejandro Kirk and Adley Rutschman, two young bona fide studs. Tyler Heineman, the Blue Jays' backup catcher, has four more years under team control. Like the Red Sox, the Orioles have a vacant backup catcher position. The Red Sox cannot neglect their catching depth when they are pursuing frontline starters. Since Nick Pivetta declined his mutual option, the Red Sox have an additional $21 million to spend. Some of this money should be allocated toward catching depth. Given their shared needs and interest in starters, the Orioles represent a genuine threat to snipe any Red Sox targets. The Red Sox must act quickly before Kelly or Higashioka can sign elsewhere. View full article

Passan tweeted the Red Sox are meeting with Soto after the Blue Jays: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1856324233657213222

It's great to look for surplus value, to be strategic, and to sign players who suit your roster needs. But you know what else is great? Getting the best player on the market. “It’s expensive to sign baseball players,” John Henry once said, much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans. Henry’s statement rings true. Free agent contract values are increasing each year. Last offseason, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700-million contract to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which broke the previous record for the most expensive professional sports contract. Previously, Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5-million extension was the largest contract in baseball. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the free agent market dipped following the 2020 season. Free agents affected by the shortened pandemic season “only” inked $1.36 billion total in contracts. However, since then, the total value of free-agent contracts has risen steadily. Some players, arguably, aren’t worth their gargantuan contracts. Others are. Twenty-six-year-old future Hall of Famers like Juan Soto seldom enters free agency. The Athletic projects that Soto will garner a 12-year, $540-million contract. He’s worth every penny, and the Red Sox must pursue him. Sure, money is paramount to Soto, but winning comes in at a close second. It’s important to point out that the Red Sox are behemoths in recent World Series history. Since 2004, they have a 16-3 record in the World Series. On the other hand, the Yankees possess a 5-6 record. Sniping the Yankees' primary offseason target is a dub by itself. The Yankees' core is not sustainable. The World Series accentuated their roster construction flaws, from their shoddy defense to their inefficiency on the basepaths. Moreover, the Yankees have the second-oldest roster in the league at an average age of 29.3. Their roster is constrained by several aging superstars in the middle of expensive, long-term contracts. Gerrit Cole (34), Carlos Rodón (31), and Giancarlo Stanton (34) are being paid at least $25 million per year until 2027 or 2028. Aaron Judge has about $280 million remaining on his contract. As I mentioned earlier, Juan Soto is 26 years old. He’s two years younger than Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. Soto has shown that his floor is an All-Star caliber player in six MLB seasons. His ceiling is a perennial top-10 MVP candidate and Silver Slugger winner. Soto would be “just another guy” in the crowded dugouts of the Yankees or Dodgers clubhouse, but he could be the star of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have a young homegrown core. Any egregious long-term contracts don’t saddle the organization. They have a strong farm system. Sustainable contention looms over the horizon, but they need someone to push them over from mediocrity. Over the past couple of seasons, it seems like the Red Sox are banking on the Big Four to impact the major-league roster immediately. Putting all their eggs in one basket is a risky move. At the very least, one of the Big Four will break out in the majors. Allocating some, not all, of their resources toward a generational talent provides them with a backup plan and insurance in case any of their prospects fail to perform in the majors. Opponents argue, “But Soto is a left-handed hitter! The team has too many lefties!” The roster is notably lefty-heavy, but it’s not like the Red Sox lefties can’t hit against left-handed pitching. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers hold 114 and 98 wRC+ career splits against southpaws. Soto is frequently likened to Ted Williams for a reason. He has no trouble hitting the ball, regardless of a pitcher’s handedness. Look at his career splits against left-handed pitching. Career BA OBP SLG RBI HR K% wRC+ vs LHP .268 .383 .475 191 56 18.0 135 Wouldn't you like to see the second coming of Ted Williams spend the rest of his career in Fenway Park? Slotting Soto into the lineup would exacerbate the lefty-dominant nature of the lineup, but his career splits mark a substantial improvement over Ceddanne Rafaela (62 wRC+), Masataka Yoshida (84 wRC+), and Jarren Duran (88 wRC+). It's also important to remember that injuries were part of the reason the lineup was so lefty-heavy. The holes Vaughn Grissom and Trevor Story left in the infield were filled by left-handed batters David Hamilton, Dom Smith, and Enmanuel Valdez , creating a false narrative that the lineup is too reliant on left-handed batters. It should look a little more balanced next year with (fingers crossed) healthy seasons from Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom. Assuming Wilyer Abreu is traded, imagine this lineup: CF Jarren Duran (L) LF Juan Soto (L) 3B Rafael Devers (L) 1B Triston Casas (L) SS Trevor Story (R) DH Masataka Yoshida (L) C Connor Wong (R) RF Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 2B Vaughn Grissom (R) Beautiful, no? Along with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, Soto will exasperate opposing pitchers, driving pitch counts up and opposing managers insane. Soto could provide some cushion for Raffy and alleviate him from the burden/expectation of carrying the team’s offense. Despite being the team’s highest-paid player and the face of the franchise, Devers is notably reserved and shies away from the media. He’s not an outspoken leader, preferring to stay quiet and let his work speak for itself. This is fine, but the Boston media is intense and passionate. Soto is a showy performer and doesn’t shy away from the spotlight. By taking center stage in the organization, he would reduce pressure from the media. Lefties with opposite field power can take advantage of the Green Monster and Soto is no exception. He pulled the ball more frequently while playing in Yankee Stadium last year, but he's capable of spraying the ball all over the field. Soto would pepper Lansdowne Street with home runs. He could easily hit 50+ home runs playing 81 games at Fenway each year. Heck, he might surpass David Ortiz’s single-season record of 54 home runs. Speaking of which, like David Ortiz, Soto is Dominican. He plays for the Dominican World Baseball team. The Red Sox have a strong history of Dominican baseball stars. Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez’s contributions to the 2004 Red Sox will never be forgotten. This past spring, the organization recently updated its Dominican Academy and played an exhibition series in Santo Domingo (Soto’s hometown). Juan Soto grew up idolizing Manny, Pedro, and Big Papi. Why not join Rafael Devers and Brayan Bello to form a new Dominican trio? Smart investments matter for sustainable contention. You can’t put a brand-new 2025 Ferrari 812 GTS engine in a 1995 PT Cruiser and expect the car to run smoothly. You also can’t keep “fixing” glaring holes with Band-Aids and expect a winning product on the field. The Red Sox indicated they’ll stop cosplaying as a small market team and are ready to spend. Simply spending for the sake of spending isn’t sustainable. They must be cognizant of where they're allocating their resources. That said, the Red Sox have a list of things that need fixing in the offseason. Their outfield was a bright spot on the team and doesn’t necessarily need any additional help. However, landing a generational talent like Soto should take precedence over their other issues, and the Red Sox must be proactive. Pursue Soto and let the rest of the roster sort itself out. View full article

The Dodgers' depth is also insane. They have a lot of defensive versatility with interchangeable players.

Assessing the ethical conundrum of which team Red Sox fans should adopt in the 2024 World Series. You should cheer for the Dodgers, duh. Although the Yankees are spearheaded by lovable homegrown players like Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto, Jose Trevino, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Rizzo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, cheering for the Yankees as a Red Sox fan is morally reprehensible. Sure, some other Boston sports teams have beef with LA, but the Red Sox don’t hold any ill will toward the Dodgers. In 2013, the Dodgers generously took on the albatross contracts of Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrián González, and Nick Punto. In the 2018 World Series, the Dodgers were gracious enough to sit there quietly while the Red Sox stomped them, 4-1. In 1916, they did the exact same thing. The Dodgers feature several beloved former Red Sox. This one's obvious. BLEED BLUE! GO DODGERS! View full article

Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran each have a chance to become the first Red Sox players to win Gold Gloves since 2019. On Tuesday, Rawlings announced the finalists for the 2024 Gold Glove Awards. Red Sox outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran fin ished in the top three in voting for their respective positions, making them first-time finalists. Fenway Park's outfield is one of the quirkiest in baseball, making it a challenging stadium for defenders. The 37-foot Green Monster boasts the highest outfield fence among all 30 big-league parks. Moving across the stadium, right field is bounded by a diminutive 3-foot wall. Balls take odd bounces off the Green Monster, the vast 420-foot center field triangle turns fly balls into triples, deep right field maxes out at 380 feet, and the Pesky Pole, only 302 feet away from home plate and invites would-be foul balls to become home runs. With more area to cover than the typical right field, the Red Sox must play a competent, athletic right fielder. Enter Wilyer Abreu. Back in September, Alex Cora highlighted Abreu’s defensive skill set, saying "I think he's going to be a guy that's going to hit for power, he can steal bases and probably win a Gold Glove in right field." Cora was spot-on in his analysis. Defending arguably the toughest outfield in baseball as a rookie, Abreu utilized his instincts and arm strength to rack up nine outfield assists, 18 defensive runs saved, and nine fielding runs. Although his footspeed of 27.5 feet-per-second only ranks in the 54th percentile, Statcast credited him with getting better jumps than the average outfielder, and his relentless hustle helped him gain even more ground. Abreu leaves it all on the field and does whatever he can to help the Sox win. Statcast measured Abreu's arm strength at 94.8 mph, which ranked eighth in all of baseball. He put that strength to use, too, as his arm saved three runs, seventh-most in the game. His hardest-thrown ball clocked in at a staggering 100.7 mph , and the accuracy of Abreu’s cannon allowed him to make difficult plays look routine. Joining Abreu as finalists are Angels’ right fielder Jo Adell, and Yankees’ right fielder Juan Soto. Abreu graded out as the consensus best right fielder in the league, and he should be lock. That said, Soto's appearance as a finalist — for the second year in a row, no less — is as strong an indicator as anyone needs to know that deservedness doesn't always win the day. Player DRS UZR OAA FRV DRP dWAR Wilyer Abreu 18 6.9 7 9 11.7 1.4 Jo Adell 6 1.9 1 -2 3.1 0.2 Juan Soto -1 -6 -5 -2 -10.3 -0.5 This shouldn’t be up for debate! Soto posted negative stats despite right field in Yankee Stadium being one of the easiest outfield positions in the league. According to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Prevented, he graded out as the worst right fielder in the American League. It's important to note that a fielder must spend at least 698 innings at the position in question in order to be eligible for a Gold Glove, which limits the field to just 10 right fielders. Abreu led all right fielders in both categories, but of those 10 eligible players, he was the only one to put up a positive number in both DRS and FRV. Moving to center field, Jarren Duran’s defense used to be atrocious. Now, he’s a Gold Glove finalist as a center fielder. Duran has made vast progress across the board, breaking out as a true five-tool player in his third major league season. His defensive metrics didn’t fall short, rising significantly from -5 DRS last year to 17 this season. By tweaking his running form and flyball routes, Duran has become an elite defender, enabling him to catch more balls and generate more outs. In his rookie season, Duran ranked second-to-last in route efficiency , falling 1.5 feet behind the average route runner. Duran’s elite speed has provided significant value on the basepaths, but now he’s employing it on the defensive side of his game. Running less like a lizard this year, his routes took significant strides. Check out this play from June. Blue Jays’ designated hitter, Justin Turner, hit a fly ball with a 45% catch probability to center field. With 6.1 seconds of opportunity time, Duran caught Turner’s fly ball 113 feet away from his original position in center field. He harnessed his speed to close in on the ball, navigated the warning track, catch it, and prevent the runner from advancing. His arm marked yet another area of defensive development. Given his defensive improvements, it’s no surprise that Duran was nominated. Winning a Gold Glove Award would be the icing on the cake of his breakout season. However, his path to winning a Gold Glove award is trickier than Abreu’s. Player DRS UZR OAA FRV DRP dWAR Jarren Duran 17 5.2 7 9 -1.9 2.5 Jake Meyers 6 9.1 14 12 11.8 1 Daulton Varsho 17 8.5 5 8 0.8 3.1 Toronto center fielder Daulton Varsho and Houston center fielder Jake Meyers best Duran in UZR, OAA, DRP, and FRV, and it's important to keep in mind that the table above only lists each player's value while playing center field. Varsho spent nearly 40% of his playing time in left field, and DRS, UZR, and FRV all rate him as the best overall outfielder in baseball. Still, being nominated is a tremendous step forward for Duran, especially considering his previous defensive struggles. Despite its poor overall defense, the Boston outfield is elite. No matter your metric of choice, the Red Sox outfielders rank among the best in baseball. Their primary focus for defensive improvement next year should be on strengthening the infield and catching. Had he spent enough time in center to be eligible, Ceddanne Rafaela would have been a deserving finalist. He put up DRS of 12 and FRV of 6 in just 631 innings in center field. With a healthy infield defense, Rafaela should see more time in center, hopefully netting his own Gold Glove votes. The Red Sox haven't won a Gold Glove in five years, with Mookie Betts being the last player to earn the award in 2019. It’s fulfilling to see Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu receive the recognition they deserve and have a shot at ending the team’s defensive accolade drought. Craig Breslow stands at a crossroads. Chaim Bloom provided the team with solid players, but any potential roster upgrade is ambiguous. A Gold Glove could enhance Abreu's trade value, but it would also make even clearer just how big a hole he'd be leaving behind in right field. Jarren Duran could be traded for an ace, but who’s to say that he won’t repeat the 6.7 fWAR production that is certain to earn him down-ballot MVP votes? Juan Soto would help the team more offensively than he'd hurt defensively, but he'd also spell the end of this elite defensive unit. Breslow has his work cut out for him this offseason. Sox fans can tune in to Baseball Tonight on ESPN to watch the announcement of the Gold Glove winners on November 3 at 8:30 PM. View full article

I don’t hate Dave Dombrowski. He got us a World Series and I, along with many other Red Sox fans, will always be grateful for that. I think the team parted ways with Dombrowski at the right time. Looking at the Phillies, it’s becoming more apparent that his MO doesn’t yield the greatest ROI, especially if your superstars can't win an NLDS, NLCS, or World Series. Would Dombrowski have traded Duran and Casas for some aging superstar past his prime? Would Bogey be inked to an albatross contract? After their window closed, Dombrowski didn’t have the opportunity to “fix” the Tigers or the Red Sox. It’ll be interesting to see if he can do it with the Phillies.

Boston's former President of Baseball Operations has taken the Phillies to a World Series, a Championship Series, and now a Divisional Series, but has yet to win the big one. How has he done it, and what can the Red Sox learn from his tenure? In September 2019, just over five years ago, the Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski. One year later, he was scooped up by the Phillies, who had gone nine years without making the playoffs and eight years without a winning record. In 2022, the Phillies made a run to the World Series, coming up short against the Houston Astros. Last year, they lost to the Diamondbacks in a heartbreaking NLCS. They faced yet another disappointment against the Mets in the NLDS this year. The Phillies entered the 2024 season with about $248 million in payroll, banking on a championship run. They got off to a hot start, finishing June with a 55-29 record. The Phillies starting rotation was one of their greatest strengths. At the end of June, their starters led the league with a 2.96 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 11.4 fWAR. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been an elite one-two combo for years, with Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez strengthening the back end of the rotation. Through June, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman, and José Alvarado led the Phillies bullpen to a 3.34 ERA, 26.2 K%, and 3.10 FIP across 259.0 innings. Their 5.0 fWAR led baseball and played a critical role in the team's first-half success. With a star-studded lineup led by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies bats were incredibly productive, slashing .259/.333/.421 through June. Trea Turner was a frontrunner for a batting title and Bryce Harper looked like he was on his way to his third National League MVP. Kyle Schwarber continued to mash the ball outside of the park. Alec Bohm took a step forward. Because of their historic start, the Phillies sent a franchise record of eight players to the All-Star Game. Their rotation, bullpen, and batting lineup looked primed for an October run. Then the second half happened. Following the break, the Phillies ran a perfectly mediocre 33-33 record. Suárez hit the IL with lower back soreness and ran a 5.65 second-half ERA. Taijuan Walker, Koby Allard, and Tyler Phillips took Suárez’s spot in the rotation but failed to live up to his performance. Injuries to Bohm, Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner, and Harper cooled the lineup’s bats. The Phillies may as well have arrived at the postseason in a screeching ambulance, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. In the National League Division Series, the bottom of the lineup failed them. Bohm, Realmuto, Stott, Weston Wilson, and Brandon Marsh combined for a .089 batting average. The bullpen that had been a strength all year surrendered a whopping 11.37 ERA. Roster Construction/Free Agent Signings The Phillies batting order features five players above the age of 30. The average age of their position players, 29.1 years, was the fourth-highest in baseball this season. Bryce Harper is a generational talent who’s headed for the Hall of Fame. Kyle Schwarber isn’t going to Cooperstown with Harper, but he’s a solid player with an impeccable postseason résumé. Trea Turner, Age 31, 11-year, $300-million Contract (2023-33) Although Trea Turner has put up 8.2 fWAR since joining the Phillies in 2023, eighth-most among shortstops, the size and length of his contract will likely end up making it a significant overpay. Since joining the Phillies in 2023, his 40 errors are the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Elly De La Cruz, and he's put up -1.0 dWAR. Turner’s bat makes up for his defense, but the 115 wRC+ he's put up with the Phillies is a far cry from the 139 he put up in the three years before he joined the team. His bat went cold during the NLDS. He went 3-for-15, good for a .200 batting average, and went hitless during the deciding game of the series. The Phillies will be paying Turner for nine more years, through his age 39 season. J.T. Realmuto, Age 33, 5-year, $115.5-million Contract (2021-25) From 2020 to 2023, J.T. Realmuto was the best catcher in baseball. Before the 2024 season, however, he was demoted to the fourth spot in MLB Network’s positional rankings, indicating that Father Time and overuse have caught up with him. Realmuto was sidelined from mid-June to late July following meniscus surgery. Realmuto was 27 years old when the Phillies originally traded for him, and he is now 33. Since 2015, he has played in 1,120 games, almost 200 more than the catcher in second place. Despite the demanding nature of his position, Realmuto rarely takes time off, partly because the backup catcher Garrett Stubbs does not warrant consistent playing time. Stubbs’ career slash line with the Phillies stands at a .222/.305/.324 slash line with a 25.2 K%, 79 wRC+, and 0.7 WAR across three seasons. Simply put, Stubbs is a massive downgrade from Realmuto. From 2018 to 2022, Realmuto ran a 118 wRC+, fourth among qualified catchers. In 2023 and 2023, his wRC+ has fallen to 105, still above average, but no longer elite. More importantly, his once elite framing skills are no longer grading out well. Realmuto went 0-for-11 during the NLDS, but those struggles this postseason could be overlooked because he effectively guided Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez to quality starts. Realmuto also boasts unusual speed for a catcher, stealing 37 stolen bases between 2022 and 2023. This year he only managed to steal two total bases. Realmuto's meniscus surgery limited his running ability, and he likely wanted to avoid risking further injury to his knee. It will be telling to see whether Realmuto will regains his prowess in 2025 or continues to regress. Nick Castellanos, Age 32, 5-year, $100-million Contract (2022-26) Since 2022, the Phillies have paid Nick Castellanos $60 million, and he’s provided them with 1.4 fWAR. At this point, he’s a sunk cost with a high chase rate and, according to Statcast, the worst defense in baseball. The Phillies were reportedly shopping Castallanos following the 2023 season. Together, the contracts of Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto, and Castellanos are worth $924.5 million. In Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS, those players combined for a total of 3 hits and 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. In Games 4, 5, and 6 of the 2022 World Series, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, and Castellanos mustered 4 hits and 20 strikeouts in 41 at-bats. Philadelphia's aging, expensive core has pushed them to the World Series, but failed to bring home the ultimate prize. Dave Dombrowski, the architect of this Phillies team, loaded the roster with stars on mega-contracts, leaving little to no resources for depth improvements. In August 2022, the Phillies traded their highly-regarded catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe for Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh. This move created a massive hole in the Phillies' catching depth. The 24-year-old O’Hoppe looks like he could be a legitimate catcher, putting up 2.1 WAR in 2024. Solid catchers are a scarce commodity in baseball. Trading away a reputable catching prospect was a major oversight by Dave Dombrowski. The Phillies batting lineup features only two everyday homegrown players, infielders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Alec Bohm Alec Bohm had an excellent start to the season. He made the All-Star Game and made it to the semi-finals of the Home Run Derby. However, his wRC+ fell from 128 in the first half to 90 in the second half. Bohm also has trouble controlling his temper. On several occasions, video cameras have caught him breaking his bat or slamming his helmet after a strikeout. After getting caught attempting to stretch a single into a double during the NLDS, cameras caught him throwing a fit in the dugout. Bohm went 1-for-13 (.077) in the series. Bryson Stott Stott saved the Phillies this postseason. If not for his two-RBI triple during Game 2, the Phillies likely would have been swept. Stott moved from shortstop to second when Turner joined the Phillies. Afer a breakout season with a 101 wRC+ in 2023, Stott regressed to 88 in 2024. A patient hitter who drives up pitch counts and draws walks, he was advised to take a more aggressive approach at the plate this year, but ended up swinging less often. Stott’s regression appears to be a typical sophomore slump and opponents modifying their approach. Stott’s sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile at 29.1 feet per second, and he has stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. He possesses solid plate discipline in a free-swinging lineup and plays solid defense at second. Stott also remains one of the cheaper players on the Phillies roster. Stott has a lot of upside, and if he can figure out a more complete approach at the plate, his defense and speed could make him a true all-around threat. Conclusions As a team, the Phillies lack a consistent hitting approach. They collect non-competitive at-bats and chase pitches well outside the strike zone. Scouting reports show that they fail to adjust to soft stuff. The one-size-fits-all “see ball, swing” attitude isn’t working for the Phillies. Having the second-best record in baseball is inconsequential if the team can’t play small ball in the postseason. The game has changed since Dave Dombrowski’s days of buying championships with the Marlins and Red Sox. Baseball’s youth movement has descended upon the league. Teams are investing heavily in player development, biomechanics, and advanced analytics. Playoff-caliber teams are made of homegrown players, some of whom are locked to long-term extensions. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the Phillies entered the 2024 season with nearly the same roster as in 2022 and 2023. If Dombrowski chooses to field the same roster without any adjustments next year, the Phillies will fail again. The Phillies find themselves in a precarious situation as their championship window slowly closes. Their roster is burdened by costly, immovable contracts. Their financial commitments limit their ability to address clear gaps in the lineup. Does this sound familiar? After the greatest season in franchise history, the Red Sox aimed for a repeat title run with an unchanged roster in 2019, only to fall short of the playoffs. Dombrowski left the Red Sox with an aging, costly, inflexible roster. Ownership faced challenging decisions and parted ways with beloved players. Sometimes, it felt like they were taking one step forward and three steps back as they attempted to dig themselves out of the hole. In sharp contrast to Dave Dombrowski's struggles with the Phillies, the Red Sox are well-positioned for a sustainable future thanks to their strong farm system and successful player development. However, fans are tired of the continuous rebuilding mindset from ownership. Prospect hoarding doesn’t win championships. The Red Sox have a convincing core to build around, money to spend on free agents, and depth to trade from. It’s time for ownership to turn all that potential into action. View full article

Roman Anthony Anthony's bat speed is faster than most major league hitters. He's a smart hitter and it's a disservice to him if he's kept in the minors at the start of the next season. David SandlinKyle TeelRichard Fitts Fitts needs to strikeout batters more but has a good base to build on. Worst case scenario: Story goes down with another injury and Fitts and Priester's high GB% are negatively affected by a shoddy defense. Kristian CampbellFranklin AriasYoeilin CespedesMiguel BleisLuis PeralesMarcelo Mayer Mayer has the ceiling of Bogey but his parade of injuries led to him being pushed down the list. Who's to say that these injuries will magically cease to exist in the majors? Braden MontgomeryWikelman GonzalezMikey RomeroAllan CastroJhostynxon GarciaPayton TolleElmer Rodriguez-CruzChase MeidrothNazzan ZanetelloConrad Cason

What does an elite reliever need in order to have a chance of succeeding as a starter? And how might the Red Sox benefit from this trend? Relievers are us ually perceived as failed starting pitchers. Being demoted to the bullpen is sometimes the last chance for pitchers to prove they belong in the majors. Some pitchers discover newfound success in the bullpen. Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances were highly acclaimed starting pitching prospects who became standout relievers only after failing to live up to their hype. Nick Pivetta was demoted to the bullpen after an abysmal start to the 2023 season. He returned to the starting rotation after improving his form. Typically, managers usually turn to Triple-A starters for rotation depth, but recently, it’s become more common to see relief pitchers transition into starters. This year’s postseason features several former relief pitchers t aking the mound. The following metrics help identify a reliever pitcher’s potential to transition to a starting pitcher successfully: Previous Experience as a Starter: Many relievers started in high school or college, transitioning to the bullpen after being drafted to meet their team's needs. Converted starters must be accustomed to pitching 5+ innings per outing. Possessing a pre-established five-day pitching schedule is crucial for a starting pitcher’s recovery and preparedness for their next outing. Multiple Elite Pitches: Stuff+ considers the physical characteristics of a pitch, such as release point, velocity, spin rate, and movement, and then gives it a grade, with 100 being league average. A successful reliever-turned-starter should have at least two pitches that exceed that threshold. Two elite pitches are a solid base for a starter’s repertoire. Solid Control: Stuff+ has its limitations because it doesn’t measure command or control. While relievers can often get by with less precise control, starters need better command to navigate the lineup two to three times. Location+, zone rate, first strike rate, and K-BB% are good indicators of a pitcher’s ability to consistently find the strike zone. Applying these metrics to pitchers such as Seth Lugo, Sean Manaea, and Michael King serve as a baseline test for identifying potential conversion targets among MLB relievers. Seth Lugo, RHP Kansas City Royals The Mets drafted Seth Lugo in 2011. He worked his way through their farm system as a starter, made his major-league debut as a reliever in 2016, and was later moved into the starting rotation. He posted a 2.67 ERA, 15.2 K%, and 1.15 WHIP as a starter in his first major league season. The team moved him back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen to accommodate Zack Wheeler’s breakout. Despite being typecast as a relief pitcher, Lugo always viewed himself as a starting pitcher. After the 2022 season, Lugo entered free agency. He signed a one-year $7.5-million contract with the Padres, who offered him a spot in their starting rotation. In 2023, he started a career-high 26 games across 146.1 innings, recording a 3.57 ERA, 28.5 K%, and 1.20 WHIP. Lugo possesses a robust repertoire that features a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slurve, slider, cutter, changeup, sweeper, and splitter. Prior to Lugo’s move to the rotation, Stuff+ graded his 2022 slider (117) and 2022 curveball (107) as above average. Although the pitch's performance didn't grade out that well, it's not hard to see what the models liked about it. At 88.9 mph, it was faster and tighter than the average slider. Hitters embarrassed themselves when faced with Lugo’s curveball. It very nearly had the highest spin rate in baseball, and its 17.2 inches of induced drop put it in the 97th percentile of all curveballs. The pitch yielded a 30.1% whiff rate, which was right around league average, but the opposition batted just .159 against it. Lugo doesn't just have a plethora of pitches in his arsenal, he has command of them. He posted a 101 Location+ in 2022, locating 43.6% of his pitches in the strike zone and running a 61.4% first strike rate. Lugo made 33 starts for the Royals this year and he finished the regular season as one of the best pitchers in the league. His 206 2/3 innings pitches were second in baseball. His 3.00 ERA ranked 10th among qualified starters, and his 71 ERA- (which accounts for the pitcher's league and home park) ranked fifth. In all, his 4.7 WAR were sixth among all pitchers. On October 2, Lugo took the mound for the Royals against the Orioles in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series. He gave up one home run and struck out six batters across 4 1/3 innings, ushering the Royals to the ALDS. Sean Manaea, LHP New York Mets Sean Manaea was drafted by the Royals in 2013. He’s worn various hats during his time in the majors, working as a starter, middle reliever, and long reliever. Manaea made 10 starts and 27 relief appearances with the Giants last season. He signed with the Mets in January, and after a strong performance in spring training, he was expected to be the Mets No. 4 starter. Over the past two seasons, Manaea’s arsenal has primarily consisted of a sinker, sweeper, changeup, four-seamer, cutter, and slider. Manaea’s arsenal is an enigma. According to Stuff+, most of his pitches are below league average. Manaea’s 2023 sinker was his only above-average pitch, graded at 121, but he hardly used it at all. Although they didn't impress the pitching models, Manaea’s four-seamer, slider, and sweeper recorded competent whiff rates and putaway percentages. His 93.6-mph four-seamer was deceptive, featuring much more arm-side run than the average fastball. Throughout his career, Manaea has also had solid command, running a 101 Location+, along with above-average zone and first strike rates. Manaea “passed” two out of three of the baseline test metrics. How did he fare as a full-time starter in 2024? The answer is complicated. On July 25, Manaea watched Chris Sale ca rve up the Mets, and he decided to pitch more like Sale. Just like that, he dropped his release point, moved to the first base side of the rubber, and became an unhittable, cross-firing, sinker-slider, sidearm lefty like Sale. Over his next 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA and averaged well over one strikeout per inning. He shelved his four-seamer, cutter, and regular slider completely, and threw his sinker more than 60% of the time in September. In all, Manaea had a career season. In the regular season, reaching double-digit strikeouts in four games and throwing a career-high 181.2 innings across 32 starts. He ran a 3.47 ERA, 87 ERA-, and put up 2.8 WAR. Kodai Senga, the team's primary ace, was sidelined with various injuries this year, and Manaea stepped up to fill his shoes. Now, he’s spearheading the Mets postseason run. Michael King, RHP San Diego Padres Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino’s injuries derailed the stability of the Yankees' 2023 starting rotation. Michael King, a Yankees relief pitcher, advocated for himself and proposed that he could slot in the rotation. King initially came up as a starting pitching prospect. During his first couple of seasons in the majors, King bounced back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. He was a dominant reliever, but couldn’t achieve the same level of their success as a rotation pitcher. From 2019 to 2022, he had a 6.52 ERA and 4.94 FIP over 10 starts, and a 2.85 ERA and 2.96 FIP over 56 relief appearances. In late August 2023, King transitioned to the Yankees rotation. He took a momentous step forward and pitched 38.1 innings across 8 starts with a 1.88 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 31.3% strikeout rate. Because of his strong finish, the Yankees anticipated that he would be part of the 2024 rotation. However, King was part of the blockbuster trade package that brought Juan Soto from San Diego to the Bronx. That same day, San Diego GM A.J. Preller confirmed that King would be part of the Padres 2024 rotation. King primarily relies on his sinker, changeup, four-seamer, and sweeper, throwing them at roughly the same rate. In 2023, Stuff+ graded his four-seamer(106) and sinker (109) as above average, and his slider (144) as elite. King also tunnels his pitches well, pairing the slider and four-seamer together as well as the sinker and sweeper. King boasts an impressive arsenal, but does he locate his pitches effectively? In short, yes. In 2023, his 22% K-BB% put him in the 90th percentile among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, and his 65% first strike rate was in the 80th. Ruben Niebla, the Padres pitching coach, had previously revitalized Seth Lugo’s career. What did he do for Michael King this year? In 2024, King threw his changeup more frequently, limiting opposing batters to a paltry .207/.271/.286 slash line thanks to a 36.2% whiff rate. Despite a rocky start, he looked like a Cy Young candidate, finishing the season with a 2.95 ERA, 75 ERA-, and 2.3 fWAR over 173 2/3 innings. Starting on June 29, King allowed fewer than three runs in 13 of his 14 starts. King’s dominance in the postseason further cemented his role as a starting pitcher. In his first playoff appearance, he shut down Atlant, throwing seven scoreless innings and recording 12 strikeouts. Potential Reliever-to-Starter Candidates Orion Kerkering, RHP Philadelphia Phillies Before being drafted by the Phillies in 2022, Orion Kerkering was a starting pitcher at the University of South Florida. He filled in as a closer in his final year of college. Kerkering posted a 2.29 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 28.8% strikeout rate over 63 innings this year. His 102 Location+, 45.% zone rate, and 22.2 K-BB% indicate that possesses solid control. He also has a lot of swing-and-miss stuff in his arsenal. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Sweeper 55.7 143 31.1 27.4 .226 Four-Seamer 29.2 114 27.2 35.3 .224 Sinker 15.2 99 16 24.1 .213 Kerkering only started two games as an opener for the Phillies this year. The Phillies starting rotation ranked fourth in the league in innings pitched 903.0. Since their starting pitchers went deep into the game, their bullpen pitchers usually threw one inning or less. However, the back end of the Phillies rotation crumbled apart after the All-Star break. Across 100.4 innings, Ranger Suárez, Tyler Phillips, Taijuan Walker, and Koby Allard recorded a combined 7.46 ERA, and 6.39 FIP. It’s evident the Phillies could use a reliever who can handle bulk innings to bolster their bullpen depth. Kerkering is a good candidate and this would help him get acclimated to longer appearances before the full transition to a starter’s workload. Mason Miller, RHP Oakland Athletics Mason Miller debuted as a starter for the A’s last season. He made six starts and looked sharp, running a 3.70 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate over 24 1/3 innings pitches. He was moved to the bullpen after a 60-day IL stint due to a strained UCL. Miller garnered national attention as the A’s primary closer this year. He pitched a couple of multi-inning outings, running a 2.49 ERA, a crazy 41.8 strikeout rate, and a 0.88 WHIP. Miller is often referred to as a pitcher who possesses “starter command with closer stuff”. His 100 Location+, 42.9 Zone%, and 33.3 K-BB% support this characterization. He has an authoritative arsenal to build upon but needs to add a fourth pitch if he moves back to the starting rotation. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Four-Seamer 63.1 137 37.1 37.3 .178 Slider 35 160 47.2 51.1 .140 Changeup 1.7 107 44.4 33.3 .000 Miller is an elite closer. He’s only 26 years old and has a long career ahead of him, though the UCL sprain likely means that Tommy John surgery is almost certainly in his fut ure. With Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill entering free agency, the Red Sox need bullpen depth and a right-handed power bat. Miller and outfielder Brent Rooker were frequently mentioned in trade rumors around the deadline. Mason Miller is an elite closer and Brent Rooker put up 5.1 WAR with a 164 wRC+ in 2024. He would represent an immense upgrade from Tyler O’Neill. Both players would help fill the most significant holes in Boston's roster. The price would be steep, but it wouldn’t hurt the Red Sox to call the A’s and see if they work out a trade package. The Red Sox are not unfamiliar with moving relievers to the starting rotation. Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock transitioned with mixed results. Whitlock’s career has unfortunately been marred by injuries. Crawford surrendered the most home runs in the league this year, but still managed to post a solid 2.6 WAR. During his end-of-season press conference, Alex Cora told reporters that the team wanted players to focus on being better prepared to face a full season's worth of games, mentioning the Cleveland bullpen as a model to emulate. Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser, Zack Kelly, and Justin Slaten are expected to resume their bullpen roles next year. Liam Hendriks will return from the injured list, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be back to his All-Star form. Garrett Whitlock is another potential bullpen option. Slaten stands out as the best reliever-to-starter candidate amongst the Red Sox bullpen pitchers. He has a history of being a starter, opening games in college and the minors. Slaten pitched several multi-inning outings this year. With a 21.9 K-BB%, he boasts the command and the effective four-pitch arsenal of a starting pitcher. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Cutter 37.7 113 24.1 15 .247 Four-Seamer 29.2 91 26.6 31 .151 Sweeper 24.7 115 35.6 27.3 .279 Curveball 8.4 158 42.3 50 .150 Given the lack of reliable bullpen depth, it’s unlikely Sox fans will see Slaten slotted in the rotation next year. However, it’s something to keep in mind and look for in the future. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Pitchers are increasingly relying on analytics and forward-thinking training techniques to refine their repertoires and help them transition into new roles. Lugo added a slurve and sweeper to his pitch mix. Manaea trained at Driveline in the offseason to augment his fastball’s velocity and then made even more dramatic in-season changes. King made adjustments to his slider and worked on controlling his changeup. The success of these pitchers, along with Garrett Crochet and (in 2023) Cole Ragans, highlights a growing trend of former relievers excelling after transitioning into the starting rotation. Utility pitchers could soon become as common as utility position players, offering teams flexibility and depth in managing their pitching staffs. Pitchers' roles continue to evolve with the rise of openers and multi-inning relief pitchers. As injury issues continue to plague starting pitchers and the demand for them increases, the reliever-to-starter trend is likely to become more prominent in the upcoming seasons. View full article