Maddie Landis

Thank you for your kind words! 😊 I’m glad you enjoyed the piece. I appreciate your support and look forward to sharing more articles in the future! Aside from beating up on Cole, I think it boils down to post All-Star break fatigue with the offense dying and the bullpen's inability to hold a lead. Before the All-Star break, the team held a 4-2 record against the Yankees. Afterwards? Their record is 2-5. The Sox have certainly shown that they *can* get to the Yankees pitching staff. They scored at least 5 runs in 5/6 of their wins against the Yankees. It’s interesting to see that the Sox and Yankees splits are flipped for RS/RA and W/L.

Everyone has a weakness. Gerrit Cole's kryptonite is the Boston Red Sox. The White Walkers are susceptible to Dragonglass (and Valyrian steel). Harry Potter’s connection to Voldemort made him vulnerable. Achilles was indestructible except for his heel. And Gerrit Cole has to play the Red Sox. Cole is likely a future Hall of Famer. Compared to his peers in that small club, he’s remained healthy and has posted impressive numbers year after year. Pitcher Age W-L IP BB% K% SO ERA FIP WHIP fWAR Gerrit Cole 34 151-80 1,938.1 10.4 28.7 2,239 3.20 3.17 1.09 45.5 Zack Wheeler 34 102-69 1,558.1 7.1 24.9 1,600 3.35 3.33 1.16 36.5 Jacob DeGrom 36 84-57 1,360 5.7 31 1,656 2.52 2.59 0.99 42.8 Max Scherzer 40 216-112 2,878 6.5 29.3 3,407 3.16 3.18 1.08 73.1 Justin Verlander 41 261-147 3,405 6.8 24.5 3,407 3.29 3.42 1.12 81.8 Cole faced the Red Sox several times as a Pirate and an Astro before he signed with the Yankees following the 2019 season. His overall record against the Red Sox is anomolous, but once he joined the Yankees, things took yet another turn for the worse. Split W-L K% HR/9 BABIP WHIP ERA FIP xFIP Career Total 151-80 28.7 1.01 .293 1.09 3.2 3.17 3.23 Carrer vs. BOS 7-6 29.1 1.94 .318 1.26 5.23 4.48 3.51 2020-2024 vs. BOS 5-5 30.7 2.23 .324 1.30 5.86 4.94 3.61 Despite the worse overall numbers, his strikeout rate has actually increased to 30.7%, well above his career average. Fans are well aware that the Red Sox strike out frequently when Gerrit Cole is on the mound. However, they also mash the ball against him. So what gives? Why can’t Gerrit Cole pitch well against the Red Sox? Let’s take a trip down memory lane. The numbers above represent regular season totals, but now it's the 2021 American League Wild Card Game. Cole is slated to pitch. It's crucial to note that Fenway Park’s bullpens are located immediately adjacent to the right-field bleachers, which means that Cole starts his warmup routine deep in enemy territory. While the opponent's starter gets ready for the game, this provides Boston's famously respectful fans with the opportunity to heckle mercilessly from point-blank range observe. Sox fans are obviously razzing Cole — one whips out a Kermit the Frog puppet, harassing him with each pitch. Gerrit Cole is a grown man; the reigning unanimous AL Cy Young Award Winner, making $36 million a year. His contract is the largest in franchise history, and the largest for a pitcher in baseball history. He's no stranger to pressure. He's obviously not going to let some raucous Sox fans get to him, right? Wrong. Kermit broke Cole. He lasted only two innings, allowing seven baserunners, two of them on walks, and two on homers. Perhaps that's why Cole's numbers against the Red Sox are so lopsided. Cole’s fear of Rafael Devers is palpable. Including the postseason, Devers boasts a .357/.450/.972 triple slash line with eight homers and seven walks against Cole. Cole has surrendered 25 home runs to the Red Sox, more than any other team, and Raffy alone counts for 32% of them. The two share an interesting history. On July 7, 2022, Devers launched two home runs off of Cole. The two bombs combined to travel 859 feet. After the game, Cole pleaded for advice on how to pitch to Devers, telling reporters, "I'm open to suggestions." Presumably, he's still open. This July, Cole surrendered Devers' 1,000th career hit. On September 10, the Yankees' second annual Hispanic Heritage Media Day, a reporter asked Cole to list the most troublesome Latin hitter he’s faced in his career. Well, the reporter tried to ask that question. Cole didn't need to wait to hear the whole thing, interrupting mid-question with his answer: “Rafael Devers.” "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer," begins the Bene Gesserit "Litany Against Fear," from Frank Herbert's science fiction classic Dune. The full litany reads: "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain." Cole’s most recent outing indicated that he might need to memorize the litany. On September 14, in the top of the first inning, Cole hit Devers on a 0-1 count. When Devers came up in the fourth inning with one out and nobody on, he intentionally walked him. It marked Cole’s first intentional walk in seven years. Speculation abounded about whether Cole or manager Aaron Boone decided to waive the white flag. Boone made it clear not only that Cole made the decision, but that he didn't necessarily agree with it. Devers is in the midst of a slump and dealing with a shoulder injury. Coming into the game, he had batted just .175 with one extra-base hit, a double, over his previous 15 games. Following the IBB, Cole's start unraveled spectacularly. Devers promptly stole second, and Cole retired just three more Red Sox, allowing three runs in the fourth and four runs in the fifth before Boone came to get him. Gerrit Cole throws four pitches a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, a cutter, and a slider. He’s heavily reliant on the four-seamer, throwing it nearly half the time, and for good reason. The pitch averages 96 mph this season. According to Statcast's run values, the pitch was worth 29 runs in 2023, making it the most valuable pitch in baseball for the second time (it also ranked first in 2019, acrruing a whopping 39 runs). Cole is an expert at locating the pitch at or above the top of the zone, where its 12.3 inches of ride make it tempting to swing at but hard to connect with. However, high four-seamers have an Achilles' heel: when batters do connect with them, they tend to go for home runs. The Sox cracked Cole’s code by annihilating the primary pitch in his repertoire. Fifteen of their 25 home runs came on four-seamers. When they make contact with Cole's high-velocity pitches, the Red Sox are generating runs and hitting no-doubters with triple-digit exit velocities. Date Batter Pitch EV Distance 6/27/21 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 113.7 451 7/7/22 Devers, Rafael Slider 110.6 434 10/5/21 Schwarber, Kyle Four-Seamer 110.3 435 7/6/24 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 110.2 441 9/7/18 Bogaerts, Xander Curve 109 432 7/23/21 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 108.9 412 9/13/22 Casas, Triston Four-Seamer 108.6 411 10/5/21 Bogaerts, Xander Change 108.1 427 7/7/22 Devers, Rafael Change 107.4 425 6/27/21 Hernández, Enrique Four-Seamer 106.9 379 6/9/23 Devers, Rafael Change 106.2 405 6/1/18 Moreland, Mitch Four-Seamer 106.1 434 8/19/23 Urías, Luis Cutter 105.9 404 8/19/23 Wong, Connor Four-Seamer 104.6 379 6/1/18 Martinez, J.D. Four-Seamer 104.2 349 9/23/22 Verdugo, Alex Four-Seamer 103.7 396 4/3/17 Benintendi, Andrew Four-Seamer 103.5 405 9/13/22 McGuire, Reese Four-Seamer 103.3 403 6/27/21 Martinez, J.D. Curve 101.6 421 4/8/22 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 101.4 382 9/23/22 Pham, Tommy Four-Seamer 101.3 337 8/14/20 Verdugo, Alex Curve 99.9 375 9/24/21 Devers, Rafael Change 99.9 373 7/17/22 Downs, Jeter Slider 98.7 363 9/13/22 Bogaerts, Xander Four-Seamer 97.8 332 Take a look at the Statcast's Pitch Arsenal Stats leaderboard, which shows outcomes for pitchers and hitters split by pitch type. In 2024, 12 Red Sox batters have a positive run value against four-seam fastballs. Spearheaded by Devers, the Red Sox have developed a psychological edge against Gerrit Cole. Their lineup is chock full of players who excel against his bread and butter. Next season, the team’s first series against the Yankees is slated for early June. Eagerly anticipating fans (not to mention Rafael Devers) will have to exercise patience for the team’s next opportunity to dominate Gerrit Cole. View full article

This seems to be the case year after year. Red Sox Post All-Star Break Record: 2021: 37-34 2022: 30-39 2023: 30-41 2024: 22-32 Red Sox Record Before the All-Star Break: 2021; 55-36 2022: 48-45 2023: 48-43 2024: 53-43 We start off strong, but run out of gas following the All-Star break. It's frustrating for this to occur again and again over the past three years. Who's to blame? Love the Green Day reference btw.

It was a huge oversight by the team to use Whitlock as a starter when he only had three pitches (a sinker, a changeup, and a sweeper) in his arsenal for the majority of his career. SPs are expected to pitch at least five innings, right? Whitlock’s career fifth inning splits are… atrocious. Split G IP ER ERA PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS TB 5th inning 24 20.1 12 5.31 89 81 0.309 0.348 0.58 0.929 47 Last year, Whitlock was used as SP in the rotation. SPs face the opposing batting order two or three times. He fell apart after facing the order for the third time. Why? Because he relied on three pitches. Season TTO IP ERA TBF ER HR SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA 2023 3rd Through Order as SP 9.2 11.17 49 12 5 5 0.409 0.429 0.818 0.504 Good starters have at least 3 pitches in their arsenal; most quality pitchers possess between 4-6. A 2019 MLB article reported that 92% of pitchers have thrown between 3-6 pitch types in their careers. RPs can get by with 3 pitches because they’re not facing the lineup multiple times. Take a look at Whitlock's career stats as a starter vs a reliever. He only added a fourth pitch, a cutter, to his repertoire this year. Um, hello? Thanks to his new and improved pitching arsenal, Whitlock looked solid prior to his injury. In today's world, it seems like pitchers are constantly refining their mechanics and developing new pitches in pitching labs. The team did a huge disservice to Whitlock by not encouraging him to develop another pitch. Last year, Whitlock probably would've fared better as a starter if he had four pitches in his repertoire. I don't know why they waited until this year to do so.

The 2023 MLB average expected whiff rate was 26%. Rafaela is absolutely a free swinger. Rafaela's Whiff% is below average for only two types of pitches: 2023 4-Seam FB: 19.0% Whiff% 2023 Sinker: 18.6% Whiff% 2024 Sinker: 17.2% Whiff% There's a good potpourri of different batting styles in the Sox lineup. Masa works up pitcher's counts. Casas and Duran make smart adjustments at the plate. Improving his plate discipline could just be helping him learn how to identify different pitches and making the proper adjustments to hit them. To me, tweaking his style would mean changing his swing to increase his bat speed or launch angle to pull more fly balls.

Constructive criticism is beneficial to player development. This is a great writeup for an issue that the Red Sox media seldom mentions. Sox Prospects made the following comments about Rafael's plate discipline: "Very aggressive approach that still needs refinement even after making strides with his swing decisions.... Very high chase rate against minor league arms that could be exposed even further at the major league level if he does not continue to improve his swing decisions." In 2024, this translates to: 78.5 Zone Swing % (6th in the league) 23.9 Zone Swing & Miss % (9th in the league) 45.7 Out of Zone Swing % (1st in the league) 61.5 Swing % (2nd in the league) The team might've jumped the gun on Rafaela. However, he's been a valuable contributor to the team. Rafaela possesses 87th percentile speed, 94th percentile arm strength, and tremendous defensive capabilities at SS and CF. Despite his lack of hard hit balls, he still has 15 HRs. Unlike speed or power, plate discipline is a teachable skill. Players are finding ways to decrease their strikeout rate. It's still Rafaela's first season in the majors. He has the potential to be a five-tool player if he develops a more disciplined plate approach.

Thank you for the insightful analysis. Locking up young talent on team friendly deals seems to be the new MO. We have Bello, Rafaela, and Devers in their prime. Casas and Houck should be next for extensions. Constantly signing high-impact free agents doesn't lead to sustainable success. Teams with young, homegrown cores bolstered by free agents create long-lasting success. The 2007 and 2018 team are good example of this. The issue is that we didn't keep Bogaerts and Mookie. JBJ and Benintendi didn't reach their full ceiling. Dombrowski moved to the Phillies and picked up huge contracts for Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos. The Phillies are hot now in 2024. However, there lineup features only two homegrown players, Bryston Stott and Alec Bohm. The Phillies farm system is ranked in the middle of the league. Is their success sustainable? We'll see. I'm more optimistic than some fans. Our farm is loaded with talent. Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer will play in the majors within the next 1-2 years. I believe the FO has learned from their past mistakes and now realize that it's important to lock up homegrown core players. The Red Sox have money to spend in the offseason. If we keep developing major league talent and make smart FA decisions, we'll be contenders year after year.

Garret Whitlock was a Rule 5 pick that Bloom drafted. At times, he's looked good. Other occasions? Eh. Given his injury history, he's shown that he's not cut out to be a starter. IMO, the Sox screwed up his development, moving him back and forth from the pen to the rotation. He could've been (and still has the potential to be) a lights out RP. I hope the Sox put him in the 2025 bullpen for the sake of his career.

One year ago today, the Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom and Sox fans remain divided over his tenure in Boston. Scores of fans loathed his indecisiveness at the 2022 and 2023 Trade Deadlines, whereas some were more sympathetic to Chaim Bloom, acknowledging that he performed to the best of his ability with limited resources. Externally, Bloom’s four-year incumbency as the team’s Chief Baseball Officer was unimpressive. Boston “clinched” the AL East basement in 2020, 2022, and 2023, only making a playoff run in the 2021 ALCS. Fresh off the high of their World Series win, the Red Sox possessed the highest 2019 Opening Day payroll at $242 million. Unfortunately, the team missed the playoffs that year, finishing with an 84-78 record and 19 games behind the first-place Yankees. After seeing Chris Sale, David Price, and Steve Pearce’s extensions age horribly, the Red Sox front office sought a culture change. Before the end of the 2019 season, they fired Dave Dombrowski. Subsequently, the Red Sox hired Bloom as the successor to Dombrowski. In many ways, Bloom was a foil to Dombrowski, a known free spender and farm gutter. Under Bloom’s tutelage, the Rays had a 96-66 record in 2019 with an economical $49.08 million payroll. Bloom arrived in Boston with three primary duties: Rebuild the farm Reduce payroll Maintain a competitive team This article will examine players from Chaim Bloom's moves (excluding Rule 5 picks and drafts) who actively contributed to the Red Sox’s surprising 2024 success. Rob Refsnyder 12/21/21 - Boston Red Sox signed free agent 2B Rob Refsnyder to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training *NOTE: On June 3rd, 2023, the Red Sox extended Rob Refsnyder for $1.85 million in 2024 with a $2 million option in 2025 After floating around various team’s minor league systems, Refsnyder signed with the Red Sox in December 2021. He’s played at a career-best in Boston. Season AVG HR OBP SLG OPS+ wRC+ XBH 2022 .307 6 .384 .497 143 146 17 2023 .248 1 .365 .317 87 93 11 2024 .284 11 .361 .472 129 130 28 Refsnyder’s platoon splits are absurd. Over the past couple of seasons, he’s emerged as one of the best platoon bats on the roster, if not the entire league. Due to team injuries, Refsnyder has stepped up into more of an everyday role in 2024, with a career-high 306 plate appearances. He’s not a power hitter, but his Hard Hit % increased by 8.1% to 43.1% in 2024. His 11 home runs for the season are another career-high. Handedness AVG HR OBP SLG OPS+ wRC+ XBH vs Left .304 8 .396 .552 143 146 15 vs Right .267 3 .329 .404 87 93 13 Moreover, Refsnyder provides solid defense in the outfield. He’s made some snazzy plays in the outfield, and his arm strength ranks in the 89th percentile. Refsnyder is a key contributor to the Red Sox. If not for Chaim Bloom, he wouldn’t be on the roster. Both on and off the field, he provides a stable veteran presence whom many younger players look up to. Hopefully, the team will pick up his $2 million option in 2025. Connor Wong Acquired on 02/10/20 - Los Angeles Dodgers traded CF Alex Verdugo, C Connor Wong, and SS Jeter Downs to Boston Red Sox for RF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price and cash Connor Wong demonstrated that he was the key piece in the Mookie Betts trade four years later. Though he’s cooled off since his 17-game hitting streak, his slash line sits at .285/.336/.436 (wRC+ of 113). Wong’s strikeout rate dropped 10% and sits at 23.3%. He’s made some changes to his approach at the plate, resulting in his offensive success. Wong is pretty speedy for a catcher. His 79th-percentile sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec) is the second-best in the league, behind J.T. Realmuto. Defensively, there’s some room for improvement. Wong primarily played shortstop and second base before converting to a catcher during his sophomore season at the University of Houston. Because of Wong’s defensive issues, some fans have called for hotshot prospect Kyle Teel to be the team’s primary catcher. However, Wong provides some versatility beyond the catcher’s box. He can field first and second base competently. With his much-needed right-hand bat and ability to play first and second, there’s room for both Kyle Teel and him on the roster. Fans are already dreaming about the Teel and Wong catching tandem. Nick Pivetta Acquired on 08/21/20 - Boston Red Sox traded RHP Brandon Workman and RHP Heath Hembree to Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Nick Pivetta and RHP Connor Seabold Nick Pivetta is a durable member of the pitching rotation. He plays the game with passion. By no means is Nick Pivetta an ace. His pitching stats are league-average at best. Season GS IP ERA K/9 SO FIP xFIP WHIP 2024 23 129.1 4.24 10.86 156 4.04 3.41 1.14 Nonetheless, he has shown flashes of brilliance, carrying a no-hitter against the Marlins through seven innings in July. In his subsequent outing, he struck out eight consecutive batters (tying a franchise record). Despite his streakiness, Pivetta eats innings. In a pitching rotation plagued by injuries, he’s never injured. There is an underappreciated merit in a pitcher who consistently shows up every four to five days, delivers a quality outing, and allows the team to win. Wilyer Abreu Acquired on 08/01/22 - Boston Red Sox traded C Christian Vazquez to Houston Astros for 2B Emmanuel Valdez and OF Wilyer Abreu Fans and players questioned the Christian Vazquez trade. At the time of trade, Vazquez’s slash line was .282/.327/.432. Now, Wilyer Abreu is a ROTY candidate. He fares better in virtually every stat against the two frontrunners, Colton Cowser and Austin Wells. Abreu’s raw power is astronomical. His exit velocity ranks in the 86th percentile (91.6 mph), his hard hit % ranks in the 93rd percentile (50.4%), and his bat speed ranks in the 84th percentile (74.5 mph). On top of his bat, Abreu makes routine plays in the notoriously difficult-to-defend Fenway right field. He has a cannon of an arm and provides above-average defense. Bloom sold high on Vazquez and received a ROTY candidate from the Astros in return. Need I say more? David Hamilton Acquired on 12/01/22 - Milwaukee Brewers traded CF Jackie Bradley Jr., SS David Hamilton, and 3B Alex Binelas to Boston Red Sox for RF Hunter Renfroe Following Trevor Story’s elbow injury, David Hamilton stepped up as the team’s everyday shortstop. His initial defense was… questionable. Cora exercised patience with Hamilton, filling him in the starting lineup despite his defensive miscues. Hamilton’s confidence grew, and by late May, he had started making routine infield plays, sometimes showing remarkable defensive prowess. His bat flourished. In mid-June, Hamilton’s slash line stood at .333/.376/.540. On August 29th, the Red Sox placed David Hamilton on the 10-day injured list with a left index finger fracture. His slash line was .248/.303/.395 with eight HRs, 28 RBIs, 47 runs, and 33 SB. Fifteen days after being placed on the IL, Hamilton still ranks 3rd in the AL for stolen bases. His sprint speed ranks in the 95th percentile (29.4 ft/s). A utility player with Hamilton’s elite sprint speed is a game-changer. If you need a ghost runner in extra innings, a guy like Hamilton can easily score the winning run from second base on a routine single or error. Fans were shocked when the Red Sox traded Hunter Renfroe. He was coming off a career season with 31 HRs, 96 RBIs, and 113 wRC+. From 2022-24, Renfroe amounted to 2.5 fWAR. Hamilton has 2.7 fWAR just in 2024 and is under control through 2026—Chaim cooked. Chaim Bloom came into his role at a significant disadvantage. The Red Sox possessed the highest payroll in the league. They had a young, controllable core that they wanted to keep, but their money was tied to David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, JD Martinez, and Chris Sale’s large contracts after trading prospects for Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale. Their gutted farm system ranked in last place. The Red Sox directed Chaim Bloom to rebuild the farm, reduce payroll, and field a competitive major league team. Attempting to do two of those things simultaneously is very difficult. Undertaking all three tasks at once? Forget about it. As articulated above, Bloom rebuilt the Red Sox farm system, creating organizational depth for the future. He also modernized the Red Sox baseball operation philosophy, enforcing a more competitive, data-driven player development process. The team’s analytical research and development staff grew from 14 in 2019 to 33 in 2023. They poached Jason Ochart, David Besky, and John Soteropulos from Driveline to bolster their player development staff. Simply put, winning is a byproduct of player development. Successful teams are increasingly becoming more dependent on their player development systems. The Diamondback's young core, spearheaded by Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno, got them to the World Series last year. (If you want to read more about player development, I highly recommend reading “The MVP Machine” by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik.) Bloom managed to accomplish two of his three tasks. However, he neglected to field a competitive major league team during his tenure. Bloom made too many mistakes at the 2022 and 2023 trade deadlines and completely disregarded the major league squad. The major league product he put together on the field never transpired and was, simply put, embarrassing to watch at times. Claiming that they were fielding a “competitive” team with Jonathan Araúz, Travis Shaw, Franchy Cordero, and Marwin González playing every day was a slap in the face to fans. While Bloom managed to find position players, he never developed an effective pitching staff. Year after year, the Sox bullpen looked amazing at the start of the season but fell apart when August rolled around. The Red Sox hired Chaim Bloom to construct a stable, sustainable franchise from the ground up, which requires time and patience. It took a while, but we’re finally witnessing that materialize in 2024. Outspoken fans advocated for the Red Sox to sign big-name free agents in the offseason. Baseball isn’t basketball. One superstar won’t lead a team to the World Series. More often than not, the most important players on the roster are your backend starter, utility journeyman, or platoon bat. Bloom showed he was a shrewd talent evaluator and brought these players to the Red Sox. It took some time for them to develop, but they are key movers for the team’s success this year. Roman Anthony is the newly minted No. 1 Prospect in baseball. Following the implementation of Bloom’s player development systems, there’s a plethora of talent in Triple-A knocking at the door. They have the financial resources to bolster the team this winter. With their current payroll commitments for 2025, the team is about $62 million under the Competitive Balance Threshold. They are just a couple of players *cough cough starting pitchers* away from becoming a World Series contender. The Red Sox have a bright future, partially thanks to Chaim Bloom. View full article

Adames' splits against LHP are concerning. Let Grissom, Hamilton, and Campbell battle it out for 2B next year. Heck, I wouldn't be opposed to occasionally playing Wong at 2B. Despite his defensive catching issues, he's shown some athleticism on the field. I saw Skubal pitch in Detroit against the Red Sox last month. The dude is a stud. Do the Tigers need any infielders or outfielders? We have a surplus of both in our system.