Maddie Landis

Relievers are us ually perceived as failed starting pitchers. Being demoted to the bullpen is sometimes the last chance for pitchers to prove they belong in the majors. Some pitchers discover newfound success in the bullpen. Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances were highly acclaimed starting pitching prospects who became standout relievers only after failing to live up to their hype. Nick Pivetta was demoted to the bullpen after an abysmal start to the 2023 season. He returned to the starting rotation after improving his form. Typically, managers usually turn to Triple-A starters for rotation depth, but recently, it’s become more common to see relief pitchers transition into starters. This year’s postseason features several former relief pitchers t aking the mound. The following metrics help identify a reliever pitcher’s potential to transition to a starting pitcher successfully: Previous Experience as a Starter: Many relievers started in high school or college, transitioning to the bullpen after being drafted to meet their team's needs. Converted starters must be accustomed to pitching 5+ innings per outing. Possessing a pre-established five-day pitching schedule is crucial for a starting pitcher’s recovery and preparedness for their next outing. Multiple Elite Pitches: Stuff+ considers the physical characteristics of a pitch, such as release point, velocity, spin rate, and movement, and then gives it a grade, with 100 being league average. A successful reliever-turned-starter should have at least two pitches that exceed that threshold. Two elite pitches are a solid base for a starter’s repertoire. Solid Control: Stuff+ has its limitations because it doesn’t measure command or control. While relievers can often get by with less precise control, starters need better command to navigate the lineup two to three times. Location+, zone rate, first strike rate, and K-BB% are good indicators of a pitcher’s ability to consistently find the strike zone. Applying these metrics to pitchers such as Seth Lugo, Sean Manaea, and Michael King serve as a baseline test for identifying potential conversion targets among MLB relievers. Seth Lugo, RHP Kansas City Royals The Mets drafted Seth Lugo in 2011. He worked his way through their farm system as a starter, made his major-league debut as a reliever in 2016, and was later moved into the starting rotation. He posted a 2.67 ERA, 15.2 K%, and 1.15 WHIP as a starter in his first major league season. The team moved him back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen to accommodate Zack Wheeler’s breakout. Despite being typecast as a relief pitcher, Lugo always viewed himself as a starting pitcher. After the 2022 season, Lugo entered free agency. He signed a one-year $7.5-million contract with the Padres, who offered him a spot in their starting rotation. In 2023, he started a career-high 26 games across 146.1 innings, recording a 3.57 ERA, 28.5 K%, and 1.20 WHIP. Lugo possesses a robust repertoire that features a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slurve, slider, cutter, changeup, sweeper, and splitter. Prior to Lugo’s move to the rotation, Stuff+ graded his 2022 slider (117) and 2022 curveball (107) as above average. Although the pitch's performance didn't grade out that well, it's not hard to see what the models liked about it. At 88.9 mph, it was faster and tighter than the average slider. Hitters embarrassed themselves when faced with Lugo’s curveball. It very nearly had the highest spin rate in baseball, and its 17.2 inches of induced drop put it in the 97th percentile of all curveballs. The pitch yielded a 30.1% whiff rate, which was right around league average, but the opposition batted just .159 against it. Lugo doesn't just have a plethora of pitches in his arsenal, he has command of them. He posted a 101 Location+ in 2022, locating 43.6% of his pitches in the strike zone and running a 61.4% first strike rate. Lugo made 33 starts for the Royals this year and he finished the regular season as one of the best pitchers in the league. His 206 2/3 innings pitches were second in baseball. His 3.00 ERA ranked 10th among qualified starters, and his 71 ERA- (which accounts for the pitcher's league and home park) ranked fifth. In all, his 4.7 WAR were sixth among all pitchers. On October 2, Lugo took the mound for the Royals against the Orioles in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series. He gave up one home run and struck out six batters across 4 1/3 innings, ushering the Royals to the ALDS. Sean Manaea, LHP New York Mets Sean Manaea was drafted by the Royals in 2013. He’s worn various hats during his time in the majors, working as a starter, middle reliever, and long reliever. Manaea made 10 starts and 27 relief appearances with the Giants last season. He signed with the Mets in January, and after a strong performance in spring training, he was expected to be the Mets No. 4 starter. Over the past two seasons, Manaea’s arsenal has primarily consisted of a sinker, sweeper, changeup, four-seamer, cutter, and slider. Manaea’s arsenal is an enigma. According to Stuff+, most of his pitches are below league average. Manaea’s 2023 sinker was his only above-average pitch, graded at 121, but he hardly used it at all. Although they didn't impress the pitching models, Manaea’s four-seamer, slider, and sweeper recorded competent whiff rates and putaway percentages. His 93.6-mph four-seamer was deceptive, featuring much more arm-side run than the average fastball. Throughout his career, Manaea has also had solid command, running a 101 Location+, along with above-average zone and first strike rates. Manaea “passed” two out of three of the baseline test metrics. How did he fare as a full-time starter in 2024? The answer is complicated. On July 25, Manaea watched Chris Sale ca rve up the Mets, and he decided to pitch more like Sale. Just like that, he dropped his release point, moved to the first base side of the rubber, and became an unhittable, cross-firing, sinker-slider, sidearm lefty like Sale. Over his next 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA and averaged well over one strikeout per inning. He shelved his four-seamer, cutter, and regular slider completely, and threw his sinker more than 60% of the time in September. In all, Manaea had a career season. In the regular season, reaching double-digit strikeouts in four games and throwing a career-high 181.2 innings across 32 starts. He ran a 3.47 ERA, 87 ERA-, and put up 2.8 WAR. Kodai Senga, the team's primary ace, was sidelined with various injuries this year, and Manaea stepped up to fill his shoes. Now, he’s spearheading the Mets postseason run. Michael King, RHP San Diego Padres Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino’s injuries derailed the stability of the Yankees' 2023 starting rotation. Michael King, a Yankees relief pitcher, advocated for himself and proposed that he could slot in the rotation. King initially came up as a starting pitching prospect. During his first couple of seasons in the majors, King bounced back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. He was a dominant reliever, but couldn’t achieve the same level of their success as a rotation pitcher. From 2019 to 2022, he had a 6.52 ERA and 4.94 FIP over 10 starts, and a 2.85 ERA and 2.96 FIP over 56 relief appearances. In late August 2023, King transitioned to the Yankees rotation. He took a momentous step forward and pitched 38.1 innings across 8 starts with a 1.88 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 31.3% strikeout rate. Because of his strong finish, the Yankees anticipated that he would be part of the 2024 rotation. However, King was part of the blockbuster trade package that brought Juan Soto from San Diego to the Bronx. That same day, San Diego GM A.J. Preller confirmed that King would be part of the Padres 2024 rotation. King primarily relies on his sinker, changeup, four-seamer, and sweeper, throwing them at roughly the same rate. In 2023, Stuff+ graded his four-seamer(106) and sinker (109) as above average, and his slider (144) as elite. King also tunnels his pitches well, pairing the slider and four-seamer together as well as the sinker and sweeper. King boasts an impressive arsenal, but does he locate his pitches effectively? In short, yes. In 2023, his 22% K-BB% put him in the 90th percentile among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, and his 65% first strike rate was in the 80th. Ruben Niebla, the Padres pitching coach, had previously revitalized Seth Lugo’s career. What did he do for Michael King this year? In 2024, King threw his changeup more frequently, limiting opposing batters to a paltry .207/.271/.286 slash line thanks to a 36.2% whiff rate. Despite a rocky start, he looked like a Cy Young candidate, finishing the season with a 2.95 ERA, 75 ERA-, and 2.3 fWAR over 173 2/3 innings. Starting on June 29, King allowed fewer than three runs in 13 of his 14 starts. King’s dominance in the postseason further cemented his role as a starting pitcher. In his first playoff appearance, he shut down Atlant, throwing seven scoreless innings and recording 12 strikeouts. Potential Reliever-to-Starter Candidates Orion Kerkering, RHP Philadelphia Phillies Before being drafted by the Phillies in 2022, Orion Kerkering was a starting pitcher at the University of South Florida. He filled in as a closer in his final year of college. Kerkering posted a 2.29 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 28.8% strikeout rate over 63 innings this year. His 102 Location+, 45.% zone rate, and 22.2 K-BB% indicate that possesses solid control. He also has a lot of swing-and-miss stuff in his arsenal. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Sweeper 55.7 143 31.1 27.4 .226 Four-Seamer 29.2 114 27.2 35.3 .224 Sinker 15.2 99 16 24.1 .213 Kerkering only started two games as an opener for the Phillies this year. The Phillies starting rotation ranked fourth in the league in innings pitched 903.0. Since their starting pitchers went deep into the game, their bullpen pitchers usually threw one inning or less. However, the back end of the Phillies rotation crumbled apart after the All-Star break. Across 100.4 innings, Ranger Suárez, Tyler Phillips, Taijuan Walker, and Koby Allard recorded a combined 7.46 ERA, and 6.39 FIP. It’s evident the Phillies could use a reliever who can handle bulk innings to bolster their bullpen depth. Kerkering is a good candidate and this would help him get acclimated to longer appearances before the full transition to a starter’s workload. Mason Miller, RHP Oakland Athletics Mason Miller debuted as a starter for the A’s last season. He made six starts and looked sharp, running a 3.70 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate over 24 1/3 innings pitches. He was moved to the bullpen after a 60-day IL stint due to a strained UCL. Miller garnered national attention as the A’s primary closer this year. He pitched a couple of multi-inning outings, running a 2.49 ERA, a crazy 41.8 strikeout rate, and a 0.88 WHIP. Miller is often referred to as a pitcher who possesses “starter command with closer stuff”. His 100 Location+, 42.9 Zone%, and 33.3 K-BB% support this characterization. He has an authoritative arsenal to build upon but needs to add a fourth pitch if he moves back to the starting rotation. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Four-Seamer 63.1 137 37.1 37.3 .178 Slider 35 160 47.2 51.1 .140 Changeup 1.7 107 44.4 33.3 .000 Miller is an elite closer. He’s only 26 years old and has a long career ahead of him, though the UCL sprain likely means that Tommy John surgery is almost certainly in his fut ure. With Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill entering free agency, the Red Sox need bullpen depth and a right-handed power bat. Miller and outfielder Brent Rooker were frequently mentioned in trade rumors around the deadline. Mason Miller is an elite closer and Brent Rooker put up 5.1 WAR with a 164 wRC+ in 2024. He would represent an immense upgrade from Tyler O’Neill. Both players would help fill the most significant holes in Boston's roster. The price would be steep, but it wouldn’t hurt the Red Sox to call the A’s and see if they work out a trade package. The Red Sox are not unfamiliar with moving relievers to the starting rotation. Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock transitioned with mixed results. Whitlock’s career has unfortunately been marred by injuries. Crawford surrendered the most home runs in the league this year, but still managed to post a solid 2.6 WAR. During his end-of-season press conference, Alex Cora told reporters that the team wanted players to focus on being better prepared to face a full season's worth of games, mentioning the Cleveland bullpen as a model to emulate. Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser, Zack Kelly, and Justin Slaten are expected to resume their bullpen roles next year. Liam Hendriks will return from the injured list, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be back to his All-Star form. Garrett Whitlock is another potential bullpen option. Slaten stands out as the best reliever-to-starter candidate amongst the Red Sox bullpen pitchers. He has a history of being a starter, opening games in college and the minors. Slaten pitched several multi-inning outings this year. With a 21.9 K-BB%, he boasts the command and the effective four-pitch arsenal of a starting pitcher. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Cutter 37.7 113 24.1 15 .247 Four-Seamer 29.2 91 26.6 31 .151 Sweeper 24.7 115 35.6 27.3 .279 Curveball 8.4 158 42.3 50 .150 Given the lack of reliable bullpen depth, it’s unlikely Sox fans will see Slaten slotted in the rotation next year. However, it’s something to keep in mind and look for in the future. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Pitchers are increasingly relying on analytics and forward-thinking training techniques to refine their repertoires and help them transition into new roles. Lugo added a slurve and sweeper to his pitch mix. Manaea trained at Driveline in the offseason to augment his fastball’s velocity and then made even more dramatic in-season changes. King made adjustments to his slider and worked on controlling his changeup. The success of these pitchers, along with Garrett Crochet and (in 2023) Cole Ragans, highlights a growing trend of former relievers excelling after transitioning into the starting rotation. Utility pitchers could soon become as common as utility position players, offering teams flexibility and depth in managing their pitching staffs. Pitchers' roles continue to evolve with the rise of openers and multi-inning relief pitchers. As injury issues continue to plague starting pitchers and the demand for them increases, the reliever-to-starter trend is likely to become more prominent in the upcoming seasons.

Reviewing Craig Breslow’s Freshman Year as CBO The 2024 baseball season is over, along with Craig Breslow’s first season as Chief Baseball Office for the Boston Red Sox. Hired on October 25, 2023, Breslow’s primary tasks were to build a pitching pipeline and help the team become a legitimate contender again. Breslow inherited a strong farm system that lacked pitching depth. He took the initiative to revamp the organization’s pitching infrastructure and add roster flexibility and depth. Overall, his moves indicate progress toward sustained success. The Red Sox have consistently failed to produce homegrown pitchers. Does anyone remember the Henry Owens, Felix Doubrount, Allen Webster, and Brandon Workman experiments? The cornerstone of a successful pitching program is rooted in its coaches. Getting rid of pitching coach Dave Bush was one of the best things Breslow could do for the Red Sox. Breslow completely overhauled the team’s pitching infrastructure, hiring Justin Willard as director of pitching, Kyle Boddy as a special advisor, and Andrew Bailey as pitching coach for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, these moves were obscured by the team’s lack of spending in the offseason. Before joining the Red Sox, the three had an extensive track record of developing major-league pitching talent. Willard was poached from the Twins, where he worked as a pitching coordinator. Over the past couple of seasons, the Twins pitcher development has flourished with the emergence of Bailey Ober, Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Jhoan Duran as elite arms. Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball. He also served as Cincinnati's director of pitching from 2019 to 2021. In both 2019 and 2020, the Reds were a top-10 team in baseball in terms of strikeout rate, ERA, FIP, WHIP, and fastball velocity, As a pitching coach for the Giants, Bailey revitalized the careers of Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, and Camilo Doval. Since 2022, Webb has been a perennial Cy Young candidate. Under Bailey’s direction, Gausman and Rodón tweaked their pitching mechanics. After finishing in the top six for Cy Young voting, they cashed in with massive free-agent contracts. In 2022, Gausman signed a five-year, $110-million contract with the Blue Jays and Rodón signed a six-year, $ 162-million contract with the Yankees in 2023. Last year, Doval's 39 saves were tied for second-most in baseball. Fans expected it to take longer for the team’s revamped pitching infrastructure bear fruit, but several pitchers had breakout seasons in 2024. Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello raised their ceilings. Garret Whitlock showed glimmers of hope before injury ended his season. Down on the farm, David Sandlin and Quinn Preister look like they could be legitimate starting rotation depth. This pitching development success bodes well for the future both at the minor and major-league levels. Vaughn Grissom Yes, it stung to see Chris Sale pitch his way to a Cy Young Award in an Atlanta uniform while Vaughn Grissom was injured for most of the season. Sale’s “resurgence” with the Braves isn’t an anomaly. He’s always been a good player, but he never managed to stay healthy with the Red Sox. Keeping Sale healthy was a Sisyphean task for the Red Sox, but the Braves have managed to do so for an entire season. If Sale stayed with the Red Sox, he probably wouldn’t have been able to achieve the same level of success. The verdict is still up in the air for Grissom, He’s just 23, with six years of team control remaining. His September slash line of .286 /.313 /.357 could use some more walks and extra-base hits, but it points in a positive direction. Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks Giolito and Hendriks have yet to pitch for the Red Sox. Assuming Giolito exercises his player option and Hendriks and the team agree to the mutual option in his contract, these signings will be revisited in 2025. Here’s to stellar comeback seasons for both pitchers. The Alex Verdugo Trade: Greg Weissert and Richard Fitts In 2023, a slew of injuries and a shallow starting rotation left the Boston bullpen overtaxed. Breslow aimed to solve this problem by trading outfielder Alex Verdugo to New York in exchange for relief pitchers Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice and starting pitching prospect Richard Fitts. Judice struggled at the complex and in Single A, but it's fair to say the Red Sox won the Alex Verdugo trade both over the short- and long-term. Fitts were worth 1.2 bWAR for the season while Verdugo put up 0.8. bWAR. Weissert and Fitts have six remaining years of team control, whereas Verdugo walks as a free agent after this season. Weissert finished the 2024 season on a strong note. He led the team with 61.2 innings, recording an impressive 3.21 ERA and striking out nearly a batter an inning. Fitts came to the Red Sox as swingman with a four-seamer slider repertoire. This year, he incorporated a sweeper and splitter into his repertoire, and he impressed in a September call-up. Fitts posted a 1.74 ERA with 9 strikeouts, across 20.2 innings. He certainly has room for improvement. His 10.6% K-rate indicates that he lacks a true put-away pitch, but if the contact-suppression skills he's showed this month turn out to be real, he could be fighting Quinn Priester and David Sandlin for a rotation spot next year. Player G GS IP ERA K/9 FIP Chase % Barrel % bWAR Greg Weissert 61 0 61.2 3.21 8.17 3.80 30.1 6.1 0.6 Richard Fitts 4 4 20.2 1.74 3.92 3.31 32.0 1.4 0.6 Justin Slaten Justin Slaten looked as sharp as a Japanese steak knife out of the bullpen. He was one of the team's most reliable bullpen arms. Slaten racked up chases and whiffs at an elite level with a blend of cutters (37.9%), four-seam fastballs (28.8%), sweepers (25.2%), and curveballs (8.2%). When batters did make contact, they hit it softly and on the ground. No matter what Slaten’s future bullpen role is, he’ll be a key contributor going forward. Player G GS IP ERA K/9 FIP Chase % Barrel % bWAR Justin Slaten 43 0 54.1 2.98 9.61 2.60 35.1 4.0 0.9 Cooper Criswell Criswell had a relatively inconsistent season. On August 16, he gave up six earned runs against the Orioles. Three outings later, he was perfect through for innings against the Tigers. He looked better as a reliever than as a starter. Criswell is a groundball pitcher, running a 49.5% groundball rate (82nd percentile) for the season. Sadly, the Red Sox defense did little to help him. Criswell remains pre-arbitration eligible and under team control for another five years. He provides additional bullpen and rotation depth. It’s extremely beneficial to have interchangeable depth arms like his in Triple A. Role G IP ERA HR WHIP K/9 Starter 18 85 3.49 10 1.24 7.1 Reliever 8 14.1 7.53 0 2.02 3.8 Tyler O’Neill The Red Sox picked up O’Neill from the Cardinals via trade in December. He wasviewed as a replacement for Alex Verdugo, and his 2024 performance constituted an immense upgrade. Despite being injured for a third of the season, he posted 2.5 bWAR. O’Neill led the team in home runs and provided balance to the team’s lefty-heavy lineup, hitting 16 homers and running an astonishing 1.179 OPS against lefties over 156 plate appearances. Among batters who got at least 100 PAs against left-handed pitchers, his 214 wRC+ made him the third-best in all of baseball. O’Neill’s inability to stay healthy and his high strikeout rate made him frustrating to watch at times. However, Breslow made the right move to trade for a cheaper outfielder (O’Neill: $5.5 million, Verdugo: $8.7 million) with higher upside while receiving two pitchers who made immediate contributions to the team. Romy Gonzalez Journeyman utility players seem to flourish under Alex Cora’s management and Romy Gonzalez is no exception. Gonzalez was an awesome pickup. He had a breakout season in 2024, slashing .269 /.310/.425 for a wRC+ of 100. His defensive versatility and much-needed right-handed bench bat kept the team afloat. Even more encouraging was his contact quality, he ran a 92.3 average exit velocity and 50.7% hard-hit rate, both of which would have put him in the 90th percentile. Speaking of the 90th percentile, Gonzalez's sprint speed of 29.0 ft/s allowed him to join Ceddanne Rafaela, David Hamilton, and Jarren Duran as elite group of speedsters who wreaked havoc on the basepaths. Danny Jansen As the season progressed, Connor Wong’s poor defensive metrics became an ever-growing concern. Picking up Jansen wasn't the sexiest move, but it provided a defensive upgrade and allowed the Red Sox to offload a Rule 5 eligible prospect in order to continue Kyle Teel’s development in Triple-A. Quinn Priester Given the team’s need for starting pitching depth and faith in Vaughn Grissom as their future second baseman, it made sense to trade Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester. Priester’s overall 2024 MiLB stats are lackluster. However, Priester showed promise in his last four starts with the WooSox, running a 2.45 ERA and striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced. There’s additional potential for Priester to develop in the offseason and he could be on the major league team sometime early next season. Lucas Sims and Luis García Breslow traded for Sims and García in an attempt to bolster the bullpen for a potential playoff push. Spoiler alert: these trades were a bust. Both pitchers got pummeled, and about a month after the trade deadline, both were placed on the IL. Player G IP ERA K/9 FIP WHIP K% bWAR Lucas Sims 14 13 6.92 6.23 6.09 1.54 16.1 -0.4 Luis García 13 13.1 8.78 8.10 5.49 1.65 19.0 -0.6 The team’s 36.2% playoff odds around the trade deadline didn’t warrant emptying the farm for rental pitchers. Matthew Lugo, Niko Kavadas, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Nick Yorke are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter. The Sox probably wouldn’t have added them to the 40-man roster, so trading them for much-needed bullpen help and starting pitching depth was a practical solution. So far, Breslow has demonstrated that he’s a competent major-league talent evaluator. His deadline moves deadline didn’t pan out, but Breslow showed he was a man of action and tried to address the team’s needs. That’s better than doing nothing. The team's new pitching program nurtured success and will continue to develop effective pitchers. Their starters' 3.78 ranks second in baseball, though their 4.11 FIP ranks 17th. These stats mark a substantial improvement from 2023. Moreover, the team drafted 13 college pitchers, an all-time high, in the 2024 draft. College draftees typically climb through the minors faster than high school prospects, so fans might see some of these pitchers sooner than expected at Fenway. In his first offseason, Breslow supplemented the roster with several depth players. The organization now has more quality pitching depth than it did last year. Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and David Sandlin yield replacement-level pitching at the very least, but their ceilings indicate greater potential. Justin Slaten, Luis Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock, and Greg Weissert appear to be a legitimate bullpen core to build upon next season. Breslow confronted the team’s lack of right-handed bats, adding Romy Gonzalez and Tyler O’Neill. Gonzalez is a reliable right-hand bat off the bench. (O’Neill’s future with the team remains uncertain.) The Red Sox are one of the most historic and valuable franchises in the league. The phrase “outperforming expectations” sets a low bar for the organization, and it’s frustrating to hear it repeated year after year. This offseason's success hinges on whether the front office is willing to invest in addressing key weaknesses, particularly in front-line starting pitching depth, additional relievers, and a right-handed power bat. With logjams in the outfield and at the back end of the rotation, there are multiple opportunities to address these needs. They risk wasting time and money on aging reclamation projects. Breslow could consider trading a combination of major-league players and prospects for a starting or relief pitcher, or he could pursue big-name signings like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. In essence, Breslow is tasked with cooking a three-Michelin star meal (building a championship-caliber team), but at the moment, the pantry is stocked with Spam, Velveeta, and Entenmann's donuts. He needs the right ingredients to create a championship-caliber team. Let Craig cook.

The White Walkers are susceptible to Dragonglass (and Valyrian steel). Harry Potter’s connection to Voldemort made him vulnerable. Achilles was indestructible except for his heel. And Gerrit Cole has to play the Red Sox. Cole is likely a future Hall of Famer. Compared to his peers in that small club, he’s remained healthy and has posted impressive numbers year after year. Pitcher Age W-L IP BB% K% SO ERA FIP WHIP fWAR Gerrit Cole 34 151-80 1,938.1 10.4 28.7 2,239 3.20 3.17 1.09 45.5 Zack Wheeler 34 102-69 1,558.1 7.1 24.9 1,600 3.35 3.33 1.16 36.5 Jacob DeGrom 36 84-57 1,360 5.7 31 1,656 2.52 2.59 0.99 42.8 Max Scherzer 40 216-112 2,878 6.5 29.3 3,407 3.16 3.18 1.08 73.1 Justin Verlander 41 261-147 3,405 6.8 24.5 3,407 3.29 3.42 1.12 81.8 Cole faced the Red Sox several times as a Pirate and an Astro before he signed with the Yankees following the 2019 season. His overall record against the Red Sox is anomolous, but once he joined the Yankees, things took yet another turn for the worse. Split W-L K% HR/9 BABIP WHIP ERA FIP xFIP Career Total 151-80 28.7 1.01 .293 1.09 3.2 3.17 3.23 Carrer vs. BOS 7-6 29.1 1.94 .318 1.26 5.23 4.48 3.51 2020-2024 vs. BOS 5-5 30.7 2.23 .324 1.30 5.86 4.94 3.61 Despite the worse overall numbers, his strikeout rate has actually increased to 30.7%, well above his career average. Fans are well aware that the Red Sox strike out frequently when Gerrit Cole is on the mound. However, they also mash the ball against him. So what gives? Why can’t Gerrit Cole pitch well against the Red Sox? Let’s take a trip down memory lane. The numbers above represent regular season totals, but now it's the 2021 American League Wild Card Game. Cole is slated to pitch. It's crucial to note that Fenway Park’s bullpens are located immediately adjacent to the right-field bleachers, which means that Cole starts his warmup routine deep in enemy territory. While the opponent's starter gets ready for the game, this provides Boston's famously respectful fans with the opportunity to heckle mercilessly from point-blank range observe. Sox fans are obviously razzing Cole — one whips out a Kermit the Frog puppet, harassing him with each pitch. Gerrit Cole is a grown man; the reigning unanimous AL Cy Young Award Winner, making $36 million a year. His contract is the largest in franchise history, and the largest for a pitcher in baseball history. He's no stranger to pressure. He's obviously not going to let some raucous Sox fans get to him, right? Wrong. Kermit broke Cole. He lasted only two innings, allowing seven baserunners, two of them on walks, and two on homers. Perhaps that's why Cole's numbers against the Red Sox are so lopsided. Cole’s fear of Rafael Devers is palpable. Including the postseason, Devers boasts a .357/.450/.972 triple slash line with eight homers and seven walks against Cole. Cole has surrendered 25 home runs to the Red Sox, more than any other team, and Raffy alone counts for 32% of them. The two share an interesting history. On July 7, 2022, Devers launched two home runs off of Cole. The two bombs combined to travel 859 feet. After the game, Cole pleaded for advice on how to pitch to Devers, telling reporters, "I'm open to suggestions." Presumably, he's still open. This July, Cole surrendered Devers' 1,000th career hit. On September 10, the Yankees' second annual Hispanic Heritage Media Day, a reporter asked Cole to list the most troublesome Latin hitter he’s faced in his career. Well, the reporter tried to ask that question. Cole didn't need to wait to hear the whole thing, interrupting mid-question with his answer: “Rafael Devers.” "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer," begins the Bene Gesserit "Litany Against Fear," from Frank Herbert's science fiction classic Dune. The full litany reads: "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain." Cole’s most recent outing indicated that he might need to memorize the litany. On September 14, in the top of the first inning, Cole hit Devers on a 0-1 count. When Devers came up in the fourth inning with one out and nobody on, he intentionally walked him. It marked Cole’s first intentional walk in seven years. Speculation abounded about whether Cole or manager Aaron Boone decided to waive the white flag. Boone made it clear not only that Cole made the decision, but that he didn't necessarily agree with it. Devers is in the midst of a slump and dealing with a shoulder injury. Coming into the game, he had batted just .175 with one extra-base hit, a double, over his previous 15 games. Following the IBB, Cole's start unraveled spectacularly. Devers promptly stole second, and Cole retired just three more Red Sox, allowing three runs in the fourth and four runs in the fifth before Boone came to get him. Gerrit Cole throws four pitches a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, a cutter, and a slider. He’s heavily reliant on the four-seamer, throwing it nearly half the time, and for good reason. The pitch averages 96 mph this season. According to Statcast's run values, the pitch was worth 29 runs in 2023, making it the most valuable pitch in baseball for the second time (it also ranked first in 2019, acrruing a whopping 39 runs). Cole is an expert at locating the pitch at or above the top of the zone, where its 12.3 inches of ride make it tempting to swing at but hard to connect with. However, high four-seamers have an Achilles' heel: when batters do connect with them, they tend to go for home runs. The Sox cracked Cole’s code by annihilating the primary pitch in his repertoire. Fifteen of their 25 home runs came on four-seamers. When they make contact with Cole's high-velocity pitches, the Red Sox are generating runs and hitting no-doubters with triple-digit exit velocities. Date Batter Pitch EV Distance 6/27/21 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 113.7 451 7/7/22 Devers, Rafael Slider 110.6 434 10/5/21 Schwarber, Kyle Four-Seamer 110.3 435 7/6/24 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 110.2 441 9/7/18 Bogaerts, Xander Curve 109 432 7/23/21 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 108.9 412 9/13/22 Casas, Triston Four-Seamer 108.6 411 10/5/21 Bogaerts, Xander Change 108.1 427 7/7/22 Devers, Rafael Change 107.4 425 6/27/21 Hernández, Enrique Four-Seamer 106.9 379 6/9/23 Devers, Rafael Change 106.2 405 6/1/18 Moreland, Mitch Four-Seamer 106.1 434 8/19/23 Urías, Luis Cutter 105.9 404 8/19/23 Wong, Connor Four-Seamer 104.6 379 6/1/18 Martinez, J.D. Four-Seamer 104.2 349 9/23/22 Verdugo, Alex Four-Seamer 103.7 396 4/3/17 Benintendi, Andrew Four-Seamer 103.5 405 9/13/22 McGuire, Reese Four-Seamer 103.3 403 6/27/21 Martinez, J.D. Curve 101.6 421 4/8/22 Devers, Rafael Four-Seamer 101.4 382 9/23/22 Pham, Tommy Four-Seamer 101.3 337 8/14/20 Verdugo, Alex Curve 99.9 375 9/24/21 Devers, Rafael Change 99.9 373 7/17/22 Downs, Jeter Slider 98.7 363 9/13/22 Bogaerts, Xander Four-Seamer 97.8 332 Take a look at the Statcast's Pitch Arsenal Stats leaderboard, which shows outcomes for pitchers and hitters split by pitch type. In 2024, 12 Red Sox batters have a positive run value against four-seam fastballs. Spearheaded by Devers, the Red Sox have developed a psychological edge against Gerrit Cole. Their lineup is chock full of players who excel against his bread and butter. Next season, the team’s first series against the Yankees is slated for early June. Eagerly anticipating fans (not to mention Rafael Devers) will have to exercise patience for the team’s next opportunity to dominate Gerrit Cole.

Scores of fans loathed his indecisiveness at the 2022 and 2023 Trade Deadlines, whereas some were more sympathetic to Chaim Bloom, acknowledging that he performed to the best of his ability with limited resources. Externally, Bloom’s four-year incumbency as the team’s Chief Baseball Officer was unimpressive. Boston “clinched” the AL East basement in 2020, 2022, and 2023, only making a playoff run in the 2021 ALCS. Fresh off the high of their World Series win, the Red Sox possessed the highest 2019 Opening Day payroll at $242 million. Unfortunately, the team missed the playoffs that year, finishing with an 84-78 record and 19 games behind the first-place Yankees. After seeing Chris Sale, David Price, and Steve Pearce’s extensions age horribly, the Red Sox front office sought a culture change. Before the end of the 2019 season, they fired Dave Dombrowski. Subsequently, the Red Sox hired Bloom as the successor to Dombrowski. In many ways, Bloom was a foil to Dombrowski, a known free spender and farm gutter. Under Bloom’s tutelage, the Rays had a 96-66 record in 2019 with an economical $49.08 million payroll. Bloom arrived in Boston with three primary duties: Rebuild the farm Reduce payroll Maintain a competitive team This article will examine players from Chaim Bloom's moves (excluding Rule 5 picks and drafts) who actively contributed to the Red Sox’s surprising 2024 success. Rob Refsnyder 12/21/21 - Boston Red Sox signed free agent 2B Rob Refsnyder to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training *NOTE: On June 3rd, 2023, the Red Sox extended Rob Refsnyder for $1.85 million in 2024 with a $2 million option in 2025 After floating around various team’s minor league systems, Refsnyder signed with the Red Sox in December 2021. He’s played at a career-best in Boston. Season AVG HR OBP SLG OPS+ wRC+ XBH 2022 .307 6 .384 .497 143 146 17 2023 .248 1 .365 .317 87 93 11 2024 .284 11 .361 .472 129 130 28 Refsnyder’s platoon splits are absurd. Over the past couple of seasons, he’s emerged as one of the best platoon bats on the roster, if not the entire league. Due to team injuries, Refsnyder has stepped up into more of an everyday role in 2024, with a career-high 306 plate appearances. He’s not a power hitter, but his Hard Hit % increased by 8.1% to 43.1% in 2024. His 11 home runs for the season are another career-high. Handedness AVG HR OBP SLG OPS+ wRC+ XBH vs Left .304 8 .396 .552 143 146 15 vs Right .267 3 .329 .404 87 93 13 Moreover, Refsnyder provides solid defense in the outfield. He’s made some snazzy plays in the outfield, and his arm strength ranks in the 89th percentile. Refsnyder is a key contributor to the Red Sox. If not for Chaim Bloom, he wouldn’t be on the roster. Both on and off the field, he provides a stable veteran presence whom many younger players look up to. Hopefully, the team will pick up his $2 million option in 2025. Connor Wong Acquired on 02/10/20 - Los Angeles Dodgers traded CF Alex Verdugo, C Connor Wong, and SS Jeter Downs to Boston Red Sox for RF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price and cash Connor Wong demonstrated that he was the key piece in the Mookie Betts trade four years later. Though he’s cooled off since his 17-game hitting streak, his slash line sits at .285/.336/.436 (wRC+ of 113). Wong’s strikeout rate dropped 10% and sits at 23.3%. He’s made some changes to his approach at the plate, resulting in his offensive success. Wong is pretty speedy for a catcher. His 79th-percentile sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec) is the second-best in the league, behind J.T. Realmuto. Defensively, there’s some room for improvement. Wong primarily played shortstop and second base before converting to a catcher during his sophomore season at the University of Houston. Because of Wong’s defensive issues, some fans have called for hotshot prospect Kyle Teel to be the team’s primary catcher. However, Wong provides some versatility beyond the catcher’s box. He can field first and second base competently. With his much-needed right-hand bat and ability to play first and second, there’s room for both Kyle Teel and him on the roster. Fans are already dreaming about the Teel and Wong catching tandem. Nick Pivetta Acquired on 08/21/20 - Boston Red Sox traded RHP Brandon Workman and RHP Heath Hembree to Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Nick Pivetta and RHP Connor Seabold Nick Pivetta is a durable member of the pitching rotation. He plays the game with passion. By no means is Nick Pivetta an ace. His pitching stats are league-average at best. Season GS IP ERA K/9 SO FIP xFIP WHIP 2024 23 129.1 4.24 10.86 156 4.04 3.41 1.14 Nonetheless, he has shown flashes of brilliance, carrying a no-hitter against the Marlins through seven innings in July. In his subsequent outing, he struck out eight consecutive batters (tying a franchise record). Despite his streakiness, Pivetta eats innings. In a pitching rotation plagued by injuries, he’s never injured. There is an underappreciated merit in a pitcher who consistently shows up every four to five days, delivers a quality outing, and allows the team to win. Wilyer Abreu Acquired on 08/01/22 - Boston Red Sox traded C Christian Vazquez to Houston Astros for 2B Emmanuel Valdez and OF Wilyer Abreu Fans and players questioned the Christian Vazquez trade. At the time of trade, Vazquez’s slash line was .282/.327/.432. Now, Wilyer Abreu is a ROTY candidate. He fares better in virtually every stat against the two frontrunners, Colton Cowser and Austin Wells. Abreu’s raw power is astronomical. His exit velocity ranks in the 86th percentile (91.6 mph), his hard hit % ranks in the 93rd percentile (50.4%), and his bat speed ranks in the 84th percentile (74.5 mph). On top of his bat, Abreu makes routine plays in the notoriously difficult-to-defend Fenway right field. He has a cannon of an arm and provides above-average defense. Bloom sold high on Vazquez and received a ROTY candidate from the Astros in return. Need I say more? David Hamilton Acquired on 12/01/22 - Milwaukee Brewers traded CF Jackie Bradley Jr., SS David Hamilton, and 3B Alex Binelas to Boston Red Sox for RF Hunter Renfroe Following Trevor Story’s elbow injury, David Hamilton stepped up as the team’s everyday shortstop. His initial defense was… questionable. Cora exercised patience with Hamilton, filling him in the starting lineup despite his defensive miscues. Hamilton’s confidence grew, and by late May, he had started making routine infield plays, sometimes showing remarkable defensive prowess. His bat flourished. In mid-June, Hamilton’s slash line stood at .333/.376/.540. On August 29th, the Red Sox placed David Hamilton on the 10-day injured list with a left index finger fracture. His slash line was .248/.303/.395 with eight HRs, 28 RBIs, 47 runs, and 33 SB. Fifteen days after being placed on the IL, Hamilton still ranks 3rd in the AL for stolen bases. His sprint speed ranks in the 95th percentile (29.4 ft/s). A utility player with Hamilton’s elite sprint speed is a game-changer. If you need a ghost runner in extra innings, a guy like Hamilton can easily score the winning run from second base on a routine single or error. Fans were shocked when the Red Sox traded Hunter Renfroe. He was coming off a career season with 31 HRs, 96 RBIs, and 113 wRC+. From 2022-24, Renfroe amounted to 2.5 fWAR. Hamilton has 2.7 fWAR just in 2024 and is under control through 2026—Chaim cooked. Chaim Bloom came into his role at a significant disadvantage. The Red Sox possessed the highest payroll in the league. They had a young, controllable core that they wanted to keep, but their money was tied to David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, JD Martinez, and Chris Sale’s large contracts after trading prospects for Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale. Their gutted farm system ranked in last place. The Red Sox directed Chaim Bloom to rebuild the farm, reduce payroll, and field a competitive major league team. Attempting to do two of those things simultaneously is very difficult. Undertaking all three tasks at once? Forget about it. As articulated above, Bloom rebuilt the Red Sox farm system, creating organizational depth for the future. He also modernized the Red Sox baseball operation philosophy, enforcing a more competitive, data-driven player development process. The team’s analytical research and development staff grew from 14 in 2019 to 33 in 2023. They poached Jason Ochart, David Besky, and John Soteropulos from Driveline to bolster their player development staff. Simply put, winning is a byproduct of player development. Successful teams are increasingly becoming more dependent on their player development systems. The Diamondback's young core, spearheaded by Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno, got them to the World Series last year. (If you want to read more about player development, I highly recommend reading “The MVP Machine” by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik.) Bloom managed to accomplish two of his three tasks. However, he neglected to field a competitive major league team during his tenure. Bloom made too many mistakes at the 2022 and 2023 trade deadlines and completely disregarded the major league squad. The major league product he put together on the field never transpired and was, simply put, embarrassing to watch at times. Claiming that they were fielding a “competitive” team with Jonathan Araúz, Travis Shaw, Franchy Cordero, and Marwin González playing every day was a slap in the face to fans. While Bloom managed to find position players, he never developed an effective pitching staff. Year after year, the Sox bullpen looked amazing at the start of the season but fell apart when August rolled around. The Red Sox hired Chaim Bloom to construct a stable, sustainable franchise from the ground up, which requires time and patience. It took a while, but we’re finally witnessing that materialize in 2024. Outspoken fans advocated for the Red Sox to sign big-name free agents in the offseason. Baseball isn’t basketball. One superstar won’t lead a team to the World Series. More often than not, the most important players on the roster are your backend starter, utility journeyman, or platoon bat. Bloom showed he was a shrewd talent evaluator and brought these players to the Red Sox. It took some time for them to develop, but they are key movers for the team’s success this year. Roman Anthony is the newly minted No. 1 Prospect in baseball. Following the implementation of Bloom’s player development systems, there’s a plethora of talent in Triple-A knocking at the door. They have the financial resources to bolster the team this winter. With their current payroll commitments for 2025, the team is about $62 million under the Competitive Balance Threshold. They are just a couple of players *cough cough starting pitchers* away from becoming a World Series contender. The Red Sox have a bright future, partially thanks to Chaim Bloom.