Maddie Landis

The Red Sox definitely need to land some pitching, but catching is extremely important, and the free agent market is extremely thin. It's time to act. The bond between a catcher and a pitcher is often regarded as the most important relationship in baseball. The catcher orchestrates the game, calling pitches and helping the pitcher throw their best stuff. The pitcher and catcher must be in sync. Frontline starters need a reliable catcher to work with. Former catcher Brett Mayne once said, “What's the most important part of the game? Pitching. If it wasn't, why would teams throw this kind of money around lately? [That said] you have to have a good catcher. It's like having a phenomenal racehorse, but no jockey. Will the horse win the race without one? Probably not.” The Red Sox lack both an ace and a reliable catcher. In recent years, the catcher position has remained a revolving door. Since 2023, Red Sox catchers have generated a total of 2.7 fWAR, which ranks 25th in the league. Catchers Reese McGuire, Connor Wong, and Danny Jansen yielded varying results for the Red Sox rotation last season. Pitcher Catcher G IP ERA Brayan Bello Reese McGuire 23 116 4.89 Brayan Bello Connor Wong 37 205.1 4.03 Brayan Bello Danny Jansen 8 39 3.23 Tanner Houck Reese McGuire 11 62.1 2.60 Tanner Houck Connor Wong 38 204.2 4.00 Tanner Houck Danny Jansen 3 17.2 5.09 Kutter Crawford Reese McGuire 19 86 3.77 Kutter Crawford Connor Wong 44 214 4.58 Kutter Crawford Danny Jansen 5 25 7.20 Brayan Bello’s 2024 second-half resurgence could be attributed to Jansen, who joined the team at the trade deadline. Jansen caught eight games for Bello, whose ERA dropped to 3.47 following the trade deadline. Conversely, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford’s ERA ballooned when pitching to Jansen. Since Jansen became a free agent, Wong remains the sole veteran catcher on the 40-man roster. Oof. The organization doesn’t see prospect Kyle Teel making the 2025 Opening Day roster. When asked about Teel’s major league readiness, Craig Breslow emphasized, “What’s most important for him is to continue to develop.” After being promoted to Triple-A, Teel got off to a slow start, slashing .214/.306/.321 in August. He finished strong, recording a .375/.516/.542 slash line in September. With Teel in Triple-A for an indefinite amound of time next season, the Red Sox need a veteran, defense-first backup catcher who can fortify the position until he graduates from the minors. As much as I like Wong, he's an offense-first catcher. Wong alone isn’t enough to entice a frontline starter to the Red Sox. This offseason the Red Sox have seemingly been showing interest in every premier free agent from Willy Adames to Blake Snell to Juan Soto. However, they aren’t linked to any catchers, whose market is moving quicker than expected. Travis d’Arnaud, arguably the top catcher in the class, has already signed a two-year, $12-million contract with the Angels. As a former pitcher, Breslow is aware of the importance of the relationship between the pitcher and catcher. He clarified that the team is in the market for a backup catcher, stating, “We’ll certainly explore opportunities to get better….That includes potentially in kind of a backup role to Connor or however, things shake out.” A pitcher’s success is often attributed to the performance of his catcher. Signing a frontline starter, but neglecting their need for a catcher is equivalent to purchasing a Porsche and neglecting its maintenance by filling it with regular unleaded gasoline. This offseason feels different. Various third-party sources outside the Red Sox have indicated they’re looking to make a big splash in the offseason. They surprisingly emerged as a legitimate contender for Juan Soto, which wasn’t on anybody’s offseason bingo card. However, the Red Sox must get their priorities straight and solidify their catching depth before making a strong push for a frontline starter and/or any once-in-a-generation outfielders. Given the rotation’s mixed results with Danny Jansen, a reunion probably isn't in the pitching staff’s best interest. Kyle Higashioka and Carson Kelly are two of the best remaining options on the free agent market. I highly doubt that either will sign for more money than d’Arnaud, so they’re affordable. A one-year deal with a mutual option after the first year would provide Teel with more to develop and do so without jamming the team’s budget. Name Age BA OBP K% HR RBI wRC+ fWAR Kyle Higashioka 34 .220 .263 28.1% 17 45 105 1.6 Carson Kelly 29 .238 .313 17.6% 9 32 99 1.8 There aren’t any huge concerns surrounding either player’s offense. Personally, I don’t expect a catcher to generate a ton of runs. Their most important duty is to provide sound defense. If they can do so while providing a roughly league-average offensive line, they’re doing their job well. At first glance, Higashioka’s bat has more thump than Kelly's, with almost double the amount of home runs and a higher wRC+. However, Kelly’s strikeout rate is lower and overall these differences are marginal. Frontline starters’ catching splits indicate that Higashioka and Kelly complement top-tier starting pitchers. Michael King, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish pitched well when Kyle Higashioka caught for them. Tarik Skubal, Zac Gallen, and Jack Flaherty posted solid numbers with Carson Kelly. Defensively, Higashioka and Kelly diverge, but they still mark a significant improvement over Connor Wong’s defense. According to Statcast, Higashioka falls in the 8th percentile in blocking, the 27th percentile in catching base stealers, the 65th percentile in framing, and the 10th percentile in pop time (2.02 seconds). His defensive performance isn’t what it used to be. Conversely, Kelly grades out in the 63rd percentile in blocking, 85th for in catching stealers, the 68th percentile in framing, and 38th in pop time(1.97 seconds). Kelly is a stellar defender with youth on his side. However, it's important to note that framing is by far the most important part of the job, and Higashioka and Kelly grade out fairly similarly there. On another, more random note, Higashioka is a fourth-generation Japanese American who reportedly learned some Japanese to connect with former Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Why is this important? Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese pitching phenom will be posted by the Chibba Lotte Marines. Sasaki is an affordable option who could sign with any team. Since money is no object to him, The Athletic reported he will “prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development”. A Japanese-speaking catcher like Higashioka could help lure Sasaki to the Red Sox. Since they both speak Japanese, he could assist Sasaki in acclimating to life in a foreign country. Along with Masataka Yoshida, Sasaki would also have a friend who shares the experience of transitioning from the Nippon League to Major League Baseball. That said, the team already has a strong record in player development and Boston recently ranked as the second happiest city to live in the U.S. Signing a player solely to attract another is ill-advised. It’s speculated that Chaim Bloom did this with Masataka Yoshida in an attempt to entice Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who ultimately signed with the Dodgers. The Red Sox are currently stuck with an expensive, slap-hitting DH. Given Wong’s paltry defense, the Red Sox should prioritize Kelly, a defense-first catcher. Kelly is younger than Higashioka and has plenty of knowledge and experience, with eight years of major-league playing time. He could mentor Kyle Teel and be the bridge until Teel is major league-ready. If Wong has another slump halfway through the season, Kelly could fill the primary catcher role. His spray chart indicates that he could capitalize on Fenway’s wonky dimensions to generate extra-base hits. Looking far down the road, Kelly has a solid relationship with Zac Gallen, who could be a free-agent target next year. At the moment, the Red Sox's catching depth is miles behind their competitors for starting pitchers. The Blue Jays and Orioles have Alejandro Kirk and Adley Rutschman, two young bona fide studs. Tyler Heineman, the Blue Jays' backup catcher, has four more years under team control. Like the Red Sox, the Orioles have a vacant backup catcher position. The Red Sox cannot neglect their catching depth when they are pursuing frontline starters. Since Nick Pivetta declined his mutual option, the Red Sox have an additional $21 million to spend. Some of this money should be allocated toward catching depth. Given their shared needs and interest in starters, the Orioles represent a genuine threat to snipe any Red Sox targets. The Red Sox must act quickly before Kelly or Higashioka can sign elsewhere. View full article

Passan tweeted the Red Sox are meeting with Soto after the Blue Jays: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1856324233657213222

It's great to look for surplus value, to be strategic, and to sign players who suit your roster needs. But you know what else is great? Getting the best player on the market. “It’s expensive to sign baseball players,” John Henry once said, much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans. Henry’s statement rings true. Free agent contract values are increasing each year. Last offseason, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700-million contract to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which broke the previous record for the most expensive professional sports contract. Previously, Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5-million extension was the largest contract in baseball. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the free agent market dipped following the 2020 season. Free agents affected by the shortened pandemic season “only” inked $1.36 billion total in contracts. However, since then, the total value of free-agent contracts has risen steadily. Some players, arguably, aren’t worth their gargantuan contracts. Others are. Twenty-six-year-old future Hall of Famers like Juan Soto seldom enters free agency. The Athletic projects that Soto will garner a 12-year, $540-million contract. He’s worth every penny, and the Red Sox must pursue him. Sure, money is paramount to Soto, but winning comes in at a close second. It’s important to point out that the Red Sox are behemoths in recent World Series history. Since 2004, they have a 16-3 record in the World Series. On the other hand, the Yankees possess a 5-6 record. Sniping the Yankees' primary offseason target is a dub by itself. The Yankees' core is not sustainable. The World Series accentuated their roster construction flaws, from their shoddy defense to their inefficiency on the basepaths. Moreover, the Yankees have the second-oldest roster in the league at an average age of 29.3. Their roster is constrained by several aging superstars in the middle of expensive, long-term contracts. Gerrit Cole (34), Carlos Rodón (31), and Giancarlo Stanton (34) are being paid at least $25 million per year until 2027 or 2028. Aaron Judge has about $280 million remaining on his contract. As I mentioned earlier, Juan Soto is 26 years old. He’s two years younger than Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. Soto has shown that his floor is an All-Star caliber player in six MLB seasons. His ceiling is a perennial top-10 MVP candidate and Silver Slugger winner. Soto would be “just another guy” in the crowded dugouts of the Yankees or Dodgers clubhouse, but he could be the star of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have a young homegrown core. Any egregious long-term contracts don’t saddle the organization. They have a strong farm system. Sustainable contention looms over the horizon, but they need someone to push them over from mediocrity. Over the past couple of seasons, it seems like the Red Sox are banking on the Big Four to impact the major-league roster immediately. Putting all their eggs in one basket is a risky move. At the very least, one of the Big Four will break out in the majors. Allocating some, not all, of their resources toward a generational talent provides them with a backup plan and insurance in case any of their prospects fail to perform in the majors. Opponents argue, “But Soto is a left-handed hitter! The team has too many lefties!” The roster is notably lefty-heavy, but it’s not like the Red Sox lefties can’t hit against left-handed pitching. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers hold 114 and 98 wRC+ career splits against southpaws. Soto is frequently likened to Ted Williams for a reason. He has no trouble hitting the ball, regardless of a pitcher’s handedness. Look at his career splits against left-handed pitching. Career BA OBP SLG RBI HR K% wRC+ vs LHP .268 .383 .475 191 56 18.0 135 Wouldn't you like to see the second coming of Ted Williams spend the rest of his career in Fenway Park? Slotting Soto into the lineup would exacerbate the lefty-dominant nature of the lineup, but his career splits mark a substantial improvement over Ceddanne Rafaela (62 wRC+), Masataka Yoshida (84 wRC+), and Jarren Duran (88 wRC+). It's also important to remember that injuries were part of the reason the lineup was so lefty-heavy. The holes Vaughn Grissom and Trevor Story left in the infield were filled by left-handed batters David Hamilton, Dom Smith, and Enmanuel Valdez , creating a false narrative that the lineup is too reliant on left-handed batters. It should look a little more balanced next year with (fingers crossed) healthy seasons from Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom. Assuming Wilyer Abreu is traded, imagine this lineup: CF Jarren Duran (L) LF Juan Soto (L) 3B Rafael Devers (L) 1B Triston Casas (L) SS Trevor Story (R) DH Masataka Yoshida (L) C Connor Wong (R) RF Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 2B Vaughn Grissom (R) Beautiful, no? Along with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, Soto will exasperate opposing pitchers, driving pitch counts up and opposing managers insane. Soto could provide some cushion for Raffy and alleviate him from the burden/expectation of carrying the team’s offense. Despite being the team’s highest-paid player and the face of the franchise, Devers is notably reserved and shies away from the media. He’s not an outspoken leader, preferring to stay quiet and let his work speak for itself. This is fine, but the Boston media is intense and passionate. Soto is a showy performer and doesn’t shy away from the spotlight. By taking center stage in the organization, he would reduce pressure from the media. Lefties with opposite field power can take advantage of the Green Monster and Soto is no exception. He pulled the ball more frequently while playing in Yankee Stadium last year, but he's capable of spraying the ball all over the field. Soto would pepper Lansdowne Street with home runs. He could easily hit 50+ home runs playing 81 games at Fenway each year. Heck, he might surpass David Ortiz’s single-season record of 54 home runs. Speaking of which, like David Ortiz, Soto is Dominican. He plays for the Dominican World Baseball team. The Red Sox have a strong history of Dominican baseball stars. Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez’s contributions to the 2004 Red Sox will never be forgotten. This past spring, the organization recently updated its Dominican Academy and played an exhibition series in Santo Domingo (Soto’s hometown). Juan Soto grew up idolizing Manny, Pedro, and Big Papi. Why not join Rafael Devers and Brayan Bello to form a new Dominican trio? Smart investments matter for sustainable contention. You can’t put a brand-new 2025 Ferrari 812 GTS engine in a 1995 PT Cruiser and expect the car to run smoothly. You also can’t keep “fixing” glaring holes with Band-Aids and expect a winning product on the field. The Red Sox indicated they’ll stop cosplaying as a small market team and are ready to spend. Simply spending for the sake of spending isn’t sustainable. They must be cognizant of where they're allocating their resources. That said, the Red Sox have a list of things that need fixing in the offseason. Their outfield was a bright spot on the team and doesn’t necessarily need any additional help. However, landing a generational talent like Soto should take precedence over their other issues, and the Red Sox must be proactive. Pursue Soto and let the rest of the roster sort itself out. View full article

The Dodgers' depth is also insane. They have a lot of defensive versatility with interchangeable players.

Assessing the ethical conundrum of which team Red Sox fans should adopt in the 2024 World Series. You should cheer for the Dodgers, duh. Although the Yankees are spearheaded by lovable homegrown players like Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto, Jose Trevino, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Rizzo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, cheering for the Yankees as a Red Sox fan is morally reprehensible. Sure, some other Boston sports teams have beef with LA, but the Red Sox don’t hold any ill will toward the Dodgers. In 2013, the Dodgers generously took on the albatross contracts of Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrián González, and Nick Punto. In the 2018 World Series, the Dodgers were gracious enough to sit there quietly while the Red Sox stomped them, 4-1. In 1916, they did the exact same thing. The Dodgers feature several beloved former Red Sox. This one's obvious. BLEED BLUE! GO DODGERS! View full article

Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran each have a chance to become the first Red Sox players to win Gold Gloves since 2019. On Tuesday, Rawlings announced the finalists for the 2024 Gold Glove Awards. Red Sox outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran fin ished in the top three in voting for their respective positions, making them first-time finalists. Fenway Park's outfield is one of the quirkiest in baseball, making it a challenging stadium for defenders. The 37-foot Green Monster boasts the highest outfield fence among all 30 big-league parks. Moving across the stadium, right field is bounded by a diminutive 3-foot wall. Balls take odd bounces off the Green Monster, the vast 420-foot center field triangle turns fly balls into triples, deep right field maxes out at 380 feet, and the Pesky Pole, only 302 feet away from home plate and invites would-be foul balls to become home runs. With more area to cover than the typical right field, the Red Sox must play a competent, athletic right fielder. Enter Wilyer Abreu. Back in September, Alex Cora highlighted Abreu’s defensive skill set, saying "I think he's going to be a guy that's going to hit for power, he can steal bases and probably win a Gold Glove in right field." Cora was spot-on in his analysis. Defending arguably the toughest outfield in baseball as a rookie, Abreu utilized his instincts and arm strength to rack up nine outfield assists, 18 defensive runs saved, and nine fielding runs. Although his footspeed of 27.5 feet-per-second only ranks in the 54th percentile, Statcast credited him with getting better jumps than the average outfielder, and his relentless hustle helped him gain even more ground. Abreu leaves it all on the field and does whatever he can to help the Sox win. Statcast measured Abreu's arm strength at 94.8 mph, which ranked eighth in all of baseball. He put that strength to use, too, as his arm saved three runs, seventh-most in the game. His hardest-thrown ball clocked in at a staggering 100.7 mph , and the accuracy of Abreu’s cannon allowed him to make difficult plays look routine. Joining Abreu as finalists are Angels’ right fielder Jo Adell, and Yankees’ right fielder Juan Soto. Abreu graded out as the consensus best right fielder in the league, and he should be lock. That said, Soto's appearance as a finalist — for the second year in a row, no less — is as strong an indicator as anyone needs to know that deservedness doesn't always win the day. Player DRS UZR OAA FRV DRP dWAR Wilyer Abreu 18 6.9 7 9 11.7 1.4 Jo Adell 6 1.9 1 -2 3.1 0.2 Juan Soto -1 -6 -5 -2 -10.3 -0.5 This shouldn’t be up for debate! Soto posted negative stats despite right field in Yankee Stadium being one of the easiest outfield positions in the league. According to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Prevented, he graded out as the worst right fielder in the American League. It's important to note that a fielder must spend at least 698 innings at the position in question in order to be eligible for a Gold Glove, which limits the field to just 10 right fielders. Abreu led all right fielders in both categories, but of those 10 eligible players, he was the only one to put up a positive number in both DRS and FRV. Moving to center field, Jarren Duran’s defense used to be atrocious. Now, he’s a Gold Glove finalist as a center fielder. Duran has made vast progress across the board, breaking out as a true five-tool player in his third major league season. His defensive metrics didn’t fall short, rising significantly from -5 DRS last year to 17 this season. By tweaking his running form and flyball routes, Duran has become an elite defender, enabling him to catch more balls and generate more outs. In his rookie season, Duran ranked second-to-last in route efficiency , falling 1.5 feet behind the average route runner. Duran’s elite speed has provided significant value on the basepaths, but now he’s employing it on the defensive side of his game. Running less like a lizard this year, his routes took significant strides. Check out this play from June. Blue Jays’ designated hitter, Justin Turner, hit a fly ball with a 45% catch probability to center field. With 6.1 seconds of opportunity time, Duran caught Turner’s fly ball 113 feet away from his original position in center field. He harnessed his speed to close in on the ball, navigated the warning track, catch it, and prevent the runner from advancing. His arm marked yet another area of defensive development. Given his defensive improvements, it’s no surprise that Duran was nominated. Winning a Gold Glove Award would be the icing on the cake of his breakout season. However, his path to winning a Gold Glove award is trickier than Abreu’s. Player DRS UZR OAA FRV DRP dWAR Jarren Duran 17 5.2 7 9 -1.9 2.5 Jake Meyers 6 9.1 14 12 11.8 1 Daulton Varsho 17 8.5 5 8 0.8 3.1 Toronto center fielder Daulton Varsho and Houston center fielder Jake Meyers best Duran in UZR, OAA, DRP, and FRV, and it's important to keep in mind that the table above only lists each player's value while playing center field. Varsho spent nearly 40% of his playing time in left field, and DRS, UZR, and FRV all rate him as the best overall outfielder in baseball. Still, being nominated is a tremendous step forward for Duran, especially considering his previous defensive struggles. Despite its poor overall defense, the Boston outfield is elite. No matter your metric of choice, the Red Sox outfielders rank among the best in baseball. Their primary focus for defensive improvement next year should be on strengthening the infield and catching. Had he spent enough time in center to be eligible, Ceddanne Rafaela would have been a deserving finalist. He put up DRS of 12 and FRV of 6 in just 631 innings in center field. With a healthy infield defense, Rafaela should see more time in center, hopefully netting his own Gold Glove votes. The Red Sox haven't won a Gold Glove in five years, with Mookie Betts being the last player to earn the award in 2019. It’s fulfilling to see Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu receive the recognition they deserve and have a shot at ending the team’s defensive accolade drought. Craig Breslow stands at a crossroads. Chaim Bloom provided the team with solid players, but any potential roster upgrade is ambiguous. A Gold Glove could enhance Abreu's trade value, but it would also make even clearer just how big a hole he'd be leaving behind in right field. Jarren Duran could be traded for an ace, but who’s to say that he won’t repeat the 6.7 fWAR production that is certain to earn him down-ballot MVP votes? Juan Soto would help the team more offensively than he'd hurt defensively, but he'd also spell the end of this elite defensive unit. Breslow has his work cut out for him this offseason. Sox fans can tune in to Baseball Tonight on ESPN to watch the announcement of the Gold Glove winners on November 3 at 8:30 PM. View full article

I don’t hate Dave Dombrowski. He got us a World Series and I, along with many other Red Sox fans, will always be grateful for that. I think the team parted ways with Dombrowski at the right time. Looking at the Phillies, it’s becoming more apparent that his MO doesn’t yield the greatest ROI, especially if your superstars can't win an NLDS, NLCS, or World Series. Would Dombrowski have traded Duran and Casas for some aging superstar past his prime? Would Bogey be inked to an albatross contract? After their window closed, Dombrowski didn’t have the opportunity to “fix” the Tigers or the Red Sox. It’ll be interesting to see if he can do it with the Phillies.

Boston's former President of Baseball Operations has taken the Phillies to a World Series, a Championship Series, and now a Divisional Series, but has yet to win the big one. How has he done it, and what can the Red Sox learn from his tenure? In September 2019, just over five years ago, the Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski. One year later, he was scooped up by the Phillies, who had gone nine years without making the playoffs and eight years without a winning record. In 2022, the Phillies made a run to the World Series, coming up short against the Houston Astros. Last year, they lost to the Diamondbacks in a heartbreaking NLCS. They faced yet another disappointment against the Mets in the NLDS this year. The Phillies entered the 2024 season with about $248 million in payroll, banking on a championship run. They got off to a hot start, finishing June with a 55-29 record. The Phillies starting rotation was one of their greatest strengths. At the end of June, their starters led the league with a 2.96 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 11.4 fWAR. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been an elite one-two combo for years, with Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez strengthening the back end of the rotation. Through June, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman, and José Alvarado led the Phillies bullpen to a 3.34 ERA, 26.2 K%, and 3.10 FIP across 259.0 innings. Their 5.0 fWAR led baseball and played a critical role in the team's first-half success. With a star-studded lineup led by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies bats were incredibly productive, slashing .259/.333/.421 through June. Trea Turner was a frontrunner for a batting title and Bryce Harper looked like he was on his way to his third National League MVP. Kyle Schwarber continued to mash the ball outside of the park. Alec Bohm took a step forward. Because of their historic start, the Phillies sent a franchise record of eight players to the All-Star Game. Their rotation, bullpen, and batting lineup looked primed for an October run. Then the second half happened. Following the break, the Phillies ran a perfectly mediocre 33-33 record. Suárez hit the IL with lower back soreness and ran a 5.65 second-half ERA. Taijuan Walker, Koby Allard, and Tyler Phillips took Suárez’s spot in the rotation but failed to live up to his performance. Injuries to Bohm, Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner, and Harper cooled the lineup’s bats. The Phillies may as well have arrived at the postseason in a screeching ambulance, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. In the National League Division Series, the bottom of the lineup failed them. Bohm, Realmuto, Stott, Weston Wilson, and Brandon Marsh combined for a .089 batting average. The bullpen that had been a strength all year surrendered a whopping 11.37 ERA. Roster Construction/Free Agent Signings The Phillies batting order features five players above the age of 30. The average age of their position players, 29.1 years, was the fourth-highest in baseball this season. Bryce Harper is a generational talent who’s headed for the Hall of Fame. Kyle Schwarber isn’t going to Cooperstown with Harper, but he’s a solid player with an impeccable postseason résumé. Trea Turner, Age 31, 11-year, $300-million Contract (2023-33) Although Trea Turner has put up 8.2 fWAR since joining the Phillies in 2023, eighth-most among shortstops, the size and length of his contract will likely end up making it a significant overpay. Since joining the Phillies in 2023, his 40 errors are the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Elly De La Cruz, and he's put up -1.0 dWAR. Turner’s bat makes up for his defense, but the 115 wRC+ he's put up with the Phillies is a far cry from the 139 he put up in the three years before he joined the team. His bat went cold during the NLDS. He went 3-for-15, good for a .200 batting average, and went hitless during the deciding game of the series. The Phillies will be paying Turner for nine more years, through his age 39 season. J.T. Realmuto, Age 33, 5-year, $115.5-million Contract (2021-25) From 2020 to 2023, J.T. Realmuto was the best catcher in baseball. Before the 2024 season, however, he was demoted to the fourth spot in MLB Network’s positional rankings, indicating that Father Time and overuse have caught up with him. Realmuto was sidelined from mid-June to late July following meniscus surgery. Realmuto was 27 years old when the Phillies originally traded for him, and he is now 33. Since 2015, he has played in 1,120 games, almost 200 more than the catcher in second place. Despite the demanding nature of his position, Realmuto rarely takes time off, partly because the backup catcher Garrett Stubbs does not warrant consistent playing time. Stubbs’ career slash line with the Phillies stands at a .222/.305/.324 slash line with a 25.2 K%, 79 wRC+, and 0.7 WAR across three seasons. Simply put, Stubbs is a massive downgrade from Realmuto. From 2018 to 2022, Realmuto ran a 118 wRC+, fourth among qualified catchers. In 2023 and 2023, his wRC+ has fallen to 105, still above average, but no longer elite. More importantly, his once elite framing skills are no longer grading out well. Realmuto went 0-for-11 during the NLDS, but those struggles this postseason could be overlooked because he effectively guided Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez to quality starts. Realmuto also boasts unusual speed for a catcher, stealing 37 stolen bases between 2022 and 2023. This year he only managed to steal two total bases. Realmuto's meniscus surgery limited his running ability, and he likely wanted to avoid risking further injury to his knee. It will be telling to see whether Realmuto will regains his prowess in 2025 or continues to regress. Nick Castellanos, Age 32, 5-year, $100-million Contract (2022-26) Since 2022, the Phillies have paid Nick Castellanos $60 million, and he’s provided them with 1.4 fWAR. At this point, he’s a sunk cost with a high chase rate and, according to Statcast, the worst defense in baseball. The Phillies were reportedly shopping Castallanos following the 2023 season. Together, the contracts of Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto, and Castellanos are worth $924.5 million. In Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS, those players combined for a total of 3 hits and 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. In Games 4, 5, and 6 of the 2022 World Series, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, and Castellanos mustered 4 hits and 20 strikeouts in 41 at-bats. Philadelphia's aging, expensive core has pushed them to the World Series, but failed to bring home the ultimate prize. Dave Dombrowski, the architect of this Phillies team, loaded the roster with stars on mega-contracts, leaving little to no resources for depth improvements. In August 2022, the Phillies traded their highly-regarded catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe for Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh. This move created a massive hole in the Phillies' catching depth. The 24-year-old O’Hoppe looks like he could be a legitimate catcher, putting up 2.1 WAR in 2024. Solid catchers are a scarce commodity in baseball. Trading away a reputable catching prospect was a major oversight by Dave Dombrowski. The Phillies batting lineup features only two everyday homegrown players, infielders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Alec Bohm Alec Bohm had an excellent start to the season. He made the All-Star Game and made it to the semi-finals of the Home Run Derby. However, his wRC+ fell from 128 in the first half to 90 in the second half. Bohm also has trouble controlling his temper. On several occasions, video cameras have caught him breaking his bat or slamming his helmet after a strikeout. After getting caught attempting to stretch a single into a double during the NLDS, cameras caught him throwing a fit in the dugout. Bohm went 1-for-13 (.077) in the series. Bryson Stott Stott saved the Phillies this postseason. If not for his two-RBI triple during Game 2, the Phillies likely would have been swept. Stott moved from shortstop to second when Turner joined the Phillies. Afer a breakout season with a 101 wRC+ in 2023, Stott regressed to 88 in 2024. A patient hitter who drives up pitch counts and draws walks, he was advised to take a more aggressive approach at the plate this year, but ended up swinging less often. Stott’s regression appears to be a typical sophomore slump and opponents modifying their approach. Stott’s sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile at 29.1 feet per second, and he has stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. He possesses solid plate discipline in a free-swinging lineup and plays solid defense at second. Stott also remains one of the cheaper players on the Phillies roster. Stott has a lot of upside, and if he can figure out a more complete approach at the plate, his defense and speed could make him a true all-around threat. Conclusions As a team, the Phillies lack a consistent hitting approach. They collect non-competitive at-bats and chase pitches well outside the strike zone. Scouting reports show that they fail to adjust to soft stuff. The one-size-fits-all “see ball, swing” attitude isn’t working for the Phillies. Having the second-best record in baseball is inconsequential if the team can’t play small ball in the postseason. The game has changed since Dave Dombrowski’s days of buying championships with the Marlins and Red Sox. Baseball’s youth movement has descended upon the league. Teams are investing heavily in player development, biomechanics, and advanced analytics. Playoff-caliber teams are made of homegrown players, some of whom are locked to long-term extensions. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the Phillies entered the 2024 season with nearly the same roster as in 2022 and 2023. If Dombrowski chooses to field the same roster without any adjustments next year, the Phillies will fail again. The Phillies find themselves in a precarious situation as their championship window slowly closes. Their roster is burdened by costly, immovable contracts. Their financial commitments limit their ability to address clear gaps in the lineup. Does this sound familiar? After the greatest season in franchise history, the Red Sox aimed for a repeat title run with an unchanged roster in 2019, only to fall short of the playoffs. Dombrowski left the Red Sox with an aging, costly, inflexible roster. Ownership faced challenging decisions and parted ways with beloved players. Sometimes, it felt like they were taking one step forward and three steps back as they attempted to dig themselves out of the hole. In sharp contrast to Dave Dombrowski's struggles with the Phillies, the Red Sox are well-positioned for a sustainable future thanks to their strong farm system and successful player development. However, fans are tired of the continuous rebuilding mindset from ownership. Prospect hoarding doesn’t win championships. The Red Sox have a convincing core to build around, money to spend on free agents, and depth to trade from. It’s time for ownership to turn all that potential into action. View full article

Roman Anthony Anthony's bat speed is faster than most major league hitters. He's a smart hitter and it's a disservice to him if he's kept in the minors at the start of the next season. David SandlinKyle TeelRichard Fitts Fitts needs to strikeout batters more but has a good base to build on. Worst case scenario: Story goes down with another injury and Fitts and Priester's high GB% are negatively affected by a shoddy defense. Kristian CampbellFranklin AriasYoeilin CespedesMiguel BleisLuis PeralesMarcelo Mayer Mayer has the ceiling of Bogey but his parade of injuries led to him being pushed down the list. Who's to say that these injuries will magically cease to exist in the majors? Braden MontgomeryWikelman GonzalezMikey RomeroAllan CastroJhostynxon GarciaPayton TolleElmer Rodriguez-CruzChase MeidrothNazzan ZanetelloConrad Cason

What does an elite reliever need in order to have a chance of succeeding as a starter? And how might the Red Sox benefit from this trend? Relievers are us ually perceived as failed starting pitchers. Being demoted to the bullpen is sometimes the last chance for pitchers to prove they belong in the majors. Some pitchers discover newfound success in the bullpen. Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances were highly acclaimed starting pitching prospects who became standout relievers only after failing to live up to their hype. Nick Pivetta was demoted to the bullpen after an abysmal start to the 2023 season. He returned to the starting rotation after improving his form. Typically, managers usually turn to Triple-A starters for rotation depth, but recently, it’s become more common to see relief pitchers transition into starters. This year’s postseason features several former relief pitchers t aking the mound. The following metrics help identify a reliever pitcher’s potential to transition to a starting pitcher successfully: Previous Experience as a Starter: Many relievers started in high school or college, transitioning to the bullpen after being drafted to meet their team's needs. Converted starters must be accustomed to pitching 5+ innings per outing. Possessing a pre-established five-day pitching schedule is crucial for a starting pitcher’s recovery and preparedness for their next outing. Multiple Elite Pitches: Stuff+ considers the physical characteristics of a pitch, such as release point, velocity, spin rate, and movement, and then gives it a grade, with 100 being league average. A successful reliever-turned-starter should have at least two pitches that exceed that threshold. Two elite pitches are a solid base for a starter’s repertoire. Solid Control: Stuff+ has its limitations because it doesn’t measure command or control. While relievers can often get by with less precise control, starters need better command to navigate the lineup two to three times. Location+, zone rate, first strike rate, and K-BB% are good indicators of a pitcher’s ability to consistently find the strike zone. Applying these metrics to pitchers such as Seth Lugo, Sean Manaea, and Michael King serve as a baseline test for identifying potential conversion targets among MLB relievers. Seth Lugo, RHP Kansas City Royals The Mets drafted Seth Lugo in 2011. He worked his way through their farm system as a starter, made his major-league debut as a reliever in 2016, and was later moved into the starting rotation. He posted a 2.67 ERA, 15.2 K%, and 1.15 WHIP as a starter in his first major league season. The team moved him back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen to accommodate Zack Wheeler’s breakout. Despite being typecast as a relief pitcher, Lugo always viewed himself as a starting pitcher. After the 2022 season, Lugo entered free agency. He signed a one-year $7.5-million contract with the Padres, who offered him a spot in their starting rotation. In 2023, he started a career-high 26 games across 146.1 innings, recording a 3.57 ERA, 28.5 K%, and 1.20 WHIP. Lugo possesses a robust repertoire that features a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slurve, slider, cutter, changeup, sweeper, and splitter. Prior to Lugo’s move to the rotation, Stuff+ graded his 2022 slider (117) and 2022 curveball (107) as above average. Although the pitch's performance didn't grade out that well, it's not hard to see what the models liked about it. At 88.9 mph, it was faster and tighter than the average slider. Hitters embarrassed themselves when faced with Lugo’s curveball. It very nearly had the highest spin rate in baseball, and its 17.2 inches of induced drop put it in the 97th percentile of all curveballs. The pitch yielded a 30.1% whiff rate, which was right around league average, but the opposition batted just .159 against it. Lugo doesn't just have a plethora of pitches in his arsenal, he has command of them. He posted a 101 Location+ in 2022, locating 43.6% of his pitches in the strike zone and running a 61.4% first strike rate. Lugo made 33 starts for the Royals this year and he finished the regular season as one of the best pitchers in the league. His 206 2/3 innings pitches were second in baseball. His 3.00 ERA ranked 10th among qualified starters, and his 71 ERA- (which accounts for the pitcher's league and home park) ranked fifth. In all, his 4.7 WAR were sixth among all pitchers. On October 2, Lugo took the mound for the Royals against the Orioles in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series. He gave up one home run and struck out six batters across 4 1/3 innings, ushering the Royals to the ALDS. Sean Manaea, LHP New York Mets Sean Manaea was drafted by the Royals in 2013. He’s worn various hats during his time in the majors, working as a starter, middle reliever, and long reliever. Manaea made 10 starts and 27 relief appearances with the Giants last season. He signed with the Mets in January, and after a strong performance in spring training, he was expected to be the Mets No. 4 starter. Over the past two seasons, Manaea’s arsenal has primarily consisted of a sinker, sweeper, changeup, four-seamer, cutter, and slider. Manaea’s arsenal is an enigma. According to Stuff+, most of his pitches are below league average. Manaea’s 2023 sinker was his only above-average pitch, graded at 121, but he hardly used it at all. Although they didn't impress the pitching models, Manaea’s four-seamer, slider, and sweeper recorded competent whiff rates and putaway percentages. His 93.6-mph four-seamer was deceptive, featuring much more arm-side run than the average fastball. Throughout his career, Manaea has also had solid command, running a 101 Location+, along with above-average zone and first strike rates. Manaea “passed” two out of three of the baseline test metrics. How did he fare as a full-time starter in 2024? The answer is complicated. On July 25, Manaea watched Chris Sale ca rve up the Mets, and he decided to pitch more like Sale. Just like that, he dropped his release point, moved to the first base side of the rubber, and became an unhittable, cross-firing, sinker-slider, sidearm lefty like Sale. Over his next 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA and averaged well over one strikeout per inning. He shelved his four-seamer, cutter, and regular slider completely, and threw his sinker more than 60% of the time in September. In all, Manaea had a career season. In the regular season, reaching double-digit strikeouts in four games and throwing a career-high 181.2 innings across 32 starts. He ran a 3.47 ERA, 87 ERA-, and put up 2.8 WAR. Kodai Senga, the team's primary ace, was sidelined with various injuries this year, and Manaea stepped up to fill his shoes. Now, he’s spearheading the Mets postseason run. Michael King, RHP San Diego Padres Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino’s injuries derailed the stability of the Yankees' 2023 starting rotation. Michael King, a Yankees relief pitcher, advocated for himself and proposed that he could slot in the rotation. King initially came up as a starting pitching prospect. During his first couple of seasons in the majors, King bounced back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. He was a dominant reliever, but couldn’t achieve the same level of their success as a rotation pitcher. From 2019 to 2022, he had a 6.52 ERA and 4.94 FIP over 10 starts, and a 2.85 ERA and 2.96 FIP over 56 relief appearances. In late August 2023, King transitioned to the Yankees rotation. He took a momentous step forward and pitched 38.1 innings across 8 starts with a 1.88 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 31.3% strikeout rate. Because of his strong finish, the Yankees anticipated that he would be part of the 2024 rotation. However, King was part of the blockbuster trade package that brought Juan Soto from San Diego to the Bronx. That same day, San Diego GM A.J. Preller confirmed that King would be part of the Padres 2024 rotation. King primarily relies on his sinker, changeup, four-seamer, and sweeper, throwing them at roughly the same rate. In 2023, Stuff+ graded his four-seamer(106) and sinker (109) as above average, and his slider (144) as elite. King also tunnels his pitches well, pairing the slider and four-seamer together as well as the sinker and sweeper. King boasts an impressive arsenal, but does he locate his pitches effectively? In short, yes. In 2023, his 22% K-BB% put him in the 90th percentile among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, and his 65% first strike rate was in the 80th. Ruben Niebla, the Padres pitching coach, had previously revitalized Seth Lugo’s career. What did he do for Michael King this year? In 2024, King threw his changeup more frequently, limiting opposing batters to a paltry .207/.271/.286 slash line thanks to a 36.2% whiff rate. Despite a rocky start, he looked like a Cy Young candidate, finishing the season with a 2.95 ERA, 75 ERA-, and 2.3 fWAR over 173 2/3 innings. Starting on June 29, King allowed fewer than three runs in 13 of his 14 starts. King’s dominance in the postseason further cemented his role as a starting pitcher. In his first playoff appearance, he shut down Atlant, throwing seven scoreless innings and recording 12 strikeouts. Potential Reliever-to-Starter Candidates Orion Kerkering, RHP Philadelphia Phillies Before being drafted by the Phillies in 2022, Orion Kerkering was a starting pitcher at the University of South Florida. He filled in as a closer in his final year of college. Kerkering posted a 2.29 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 28.8% strikeout rate over 63 innings this year. His 102 Location+, 45.% zone rate, and 22.2 K-BB% indicate that possesses solid control. He also has a lot of swing-and-miss stuff in his arsenal. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Sweeper 55.7 143 31.1 27.4 .226 Four-Seamer 29.2 114 27.2 35.3 .224 Sinker 15.2 99 16 24.1 .213 Kerkering only started two games as an opener for the Phillies this year. The Phillies starting rotation ranked fourth in the league in innings pitched 903.0. Since their starting pitchers went deep into the game, their bullpen pitchers usually threw one inning or less. However, the back end of the Phillies rotation crumbled apart after the All-Star break. Across 100.4 innings, Ranger Suárez, Tyler Phillips, Taijuan Walker, and Koby Allard recorded a combined 7.46 ERA, and 6.39 FIP. It’s evident the Phillies could use a reliever who can handle bulk innings to bolster their bullpen depth. Kerkering is a good candidate and this would help him get acclimated to longer appearances before the full transition to a starter’s workload. Mason Miller, RHP Oakland Athletics Mason Miller debuted as a starter for the A’s last season. He made six starts and looked sharp, running a 3.70 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate over 24 1/3 innings pitches. He was moved to the bullpen after a 60-day IL stint due to a strained UCL. Miller garnered national attention as the A’s primary closer this year. He pitched a couple of multi-inning outings, running a 2.49 ERA, a crazy 41.8 strikeout rate, and a 0.88 WHIP. Miller is often referred to as a pitcher who possesses “starter command with closer stuff”. His 100 Location+, 42.9 Zone%, and 33.3 K-BB% support this characterization. He has an authoritative arsenal to build upon but needs to add a fourth pitch if he moves back to the starting rotation. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Four-Seamer 63.1 137 37.1 37.3 .178 Slider 35 160 47.2 51.1 .140 Changeup 1.7 107 44.4 33.3 .000 Miller is an elite closer. He’s only 26 years old and has a long career ahead of him, though the UCL sprain likely means that Tommy John surgery is almost certainly in his fut ure. With Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill entering free agency, the Red Sox need bullpen depth and a right-handed power bat. Miller and outfielder Brent Rooker were frequently mentioned in trade rumors around the deadline. Mason Miller is an elite closer and Brent Rooker put up 5.1 WAR with a 164 wRC+ in 2024. He would represent an immense upgrade from Tyler O’Neill. Both players would help fill the most significant holes in Boston's roster. The price would be steep, but it wouldn’t hurt the Red Sox to call the A’s and see if they work out a trade package. The Red Sox are not unfamiliar with moving relievers to the starting rotation. Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock transitioned with mixed results. Whitlock’s career has unfortunately been marred by injuries. Crawford surrendered the most home runs in the league this year, but still managed to post a solid 2.6 WAR. During his end-of-season press conference, Alex Cora told reporters that the team wanted players to focus on being better prepared to face a full season's worth of games, mentioning the Cleveland bullpen as a model to emulate. Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser, Zack Kelly, and Justin Slaten are expected to resume their bullpen roles next year. Liam Hendriks will return from the injured list, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be back to his All-Star form. Garrett Whitlock is another potential bullpen option. Slaten stands out as the best reliever-to-starter candidate amongst the Red Sox bullpen pitchers. He has a history of being a starter, opening games in college and the minors. Slaten pitched several multi-inning outings this year. With a 21.9 K-BB%, he boasts the command and the effective four-pitch arsenal of a starting pitcher. Pitch Usage% Stuff+ Whiff% K% Opp BA Cutter 37.7 113 24.1 15 .247 Four-Seamer 29.2 91 26.6 31 .151 Sweeper 24.7 115 35.6 27.3 .279 Curveball 8.4 158 42.3 50 .150 Given the lack of reliable bullpen depth, it’s unlikely Sox fans will see Slaten slotted in the rotation next year. However, it’s something to keep in mind and look for in the future. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Pitchers are increasingly relying on analytics and forward-thinking training techniques to refine their repertoires and help them transition into new roles. Lugo added a slurve and sweeper to his pitch mix. Manaea trained at Driveline in the offseason to augment his fastball’s velocity and then made even more dramatic in-season changes. King made adjustments to his slider and worked on controlling his changeup. The success of these pitchers, along with Garrett Crochet and (in 2023) Cole Ragans, highlights a growing trend of former relievers excelling after transitioning into the starting rotation. Utility pitchers could soon become as common as utility position players, offering teams flexibility and depth in managing their pitching staffs. Pitchers' roles continue to evolve with the rise of openers and multi-inning relief pitchers. As injury issues continue to plague starting pitchers and the demand for them increases, the reliever-to-starter trend is likely to become more prominent in the upcoming seasons. View full article

Breslow took over the organization with a mandate to improve the organization's pitching and lead it back into postseason contention. How did his first year go? Reviewing Craig Breslow’s Freshman Year as CBO The 2024 baseball season is over, along with Craig Breslow’s first season as Chief Baseball Office for the Boston Red Sox. Hired on October 25, 2023, Breslow’s primary tasks were to build a pitching pipeline and help the team become a legitimate contender again. Breslow inherited a strong farm system that lacked pitching depth. He took the initiative to revamp the organization’s pitching infrastructure and add roster flexibility and depth. Overall, his moves indicate progress toward sustained success. The Red Sox have consistently failed to produce homegrown pitchers. Does anyone remember the Henry Owens, Felix Doubrount, Allen Webster, and Brandon Workman experiments? The cornerstone of a successful pitching program is rooted in its coaches. Getting rid of pitching coach Dave Bush was one of the best things Breslow could do for the Red Sox. Breslow completely overhauled the team’s pitching infrastructure, hiring Justin Willard as director of pitching, Kyle Boddy as a special advisor, and Andrew Bailey as pitching coach for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, these moves were obscured by the team’s lack of spending in the offseason. Before joining the Red Sox, the three had an extensive track record of developing major-league pitching talent. Willard was poached from the Twins, where he worked as a pitching coordinator. Over the past couple of seasons, the Twins pitcher development has flourished with the emergence of Bailey Ober, Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Jhoan Duran as elite arms. Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball. He also served as Cincinnati's director of pitching from 2019 to 2021. In both 2019 and 2020, the Reds were a top-10 team in baseball in terms of strikeout rate, ERA, FIP, WHIP, and fastball velocity, As a pitching coach for the Giants, Bailey revitalized the careers of Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, and Camilo Doval. Since 2022, Webb has been a perennial Cy Young candidate. Under Bailey’s direction, Gausman and Rodón tweaked their pitching mechanics. After finishing in the top six for Cy Young voting, they cashed in with massive free-agent contracts. In 2022, Gausman signed a five-year, $110-million contract with the Blue Jays and Rodón signed a six-year, $ 162-million contract with the Yankees in 2023. Last year, Doval's 39 saves were tied for second-most in baseball. Fans expected it to take longer for the team’s revamped pitching infrastructure bear fruit, but several pitchers had breakout seasons in 2024. Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello raised their ceilings. Garret Whitlock showed glimmers of hope before injury ended his season. Down on the farm, David Sandlin and Quinn Preister look like they could be legitimate starting rotation depth. This pitching development success bodes well for the future both at the minor and major-league levels. Vaughn Grissom Yes, it stung to see Chris Sale pitch his way to a Cy Young Award in an Atlanta uniform while Vaughn Grissom was injured for most of the season. Sale’s “resurgence” with the Braves isn’t an anomaly. He’s always been a good player, but he never managed to stay healthy with the Red Sox. Keeping Sale healthy was a Sisyphean task for the Red Sox, but the Braves have managed to do so for an entire season. If Sale stayed with the Red Sox, he probably wouldn’t have been able to achieve the same level of success. The verdict is still up in the air for Grissom, He’s just 23, with six years of team control remaining. His September slash line of .286 /.313 /.357 could use some more walks and extra-base hits, but it points in a positive direction. Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks Giolito and Hendriks have yet to pitch for the Red Sox. Assuming Giolito exercises his player option and Hendriks and the team agree to the mutual option in his contract, these signings will be revisited in 2025. Here’s to stellar comeback seasons for both pitchers. The Alex Verdugo Trade: Greg Weissert and Richard Fitts In 2023, a slew of injuries and a shallow starting rotation left the Boston bullpen overtaxed. Breslow aimed to solve this problem by trading outfielder Alex Verdugo to New York in exchange for relief pitchers Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice and starting pitching prospect Richard Fitts. Judice struggled at the complex and in Single A, but it's fair to say the Red Sox won the Alex Verdugo trade both over the short- and long-term. Fitts were worth 1.2 bWAR for the season while Verdugo put up 0.8. bWAR. Weissert and Fitts have six remaining years of team control, whereas Verdugo walks as a free agent after this season. Weissert finished the 2024 season on a strong note. He led the team with 61.2 innings, recording an impressive 3.21 ERA and striking out nearly a batter an inning. Fitts came to the Red Sox as swingman with a four-seamer slider repertoire. This year, he incorporated a sweeper and splitter into his repertoire, and he impressed in a September call-up. Fitts posted a 1.74 ERA with 9 strikeouts, across 20.2 innings. He certainly has room for improvement. His 10.6% K-rate indicates that he lacks a true put-away pitch, but if the contact-suppression skills he's showed this month turn out to be real, he could be fighting Quinn Priester and David Sandlin for a rotation spot next year. Player G GS IP ERA K/9 FIP Chase % Barrel % bWAR Greg Weissert 61 0 61.2 3.21 8.17 3.80 30.1 6.1 0.6 Richard Fitts 4 4 20.2 1.74 3.92 3.31 32.0 1.4 0.6 Justin Slaten Justin Slaten looked as sharp as a Japanese steak knife out of the bullpen. He was one of the team's most reliable bullpen arms. Slaten racked up chases and whiffs at an elite level with a blend of cutters (37.9%), four-seam fastballs (28.8%), sweepers (25.2%), and curveballs (8.2%). When batters did make contact, they hit it softly and on the ground. No matter what Slaten’s future bullpen role is, he’ll be a key contributor going forward. Player G GS IP ERA K/9 FIP Chase % Barrel % bWAR Justin Slaten 43 0 54.1 2.98 9.61 2.60 35.1 4.0 0.9 Cooper Criswell Criswell had a relatively inconsistent season. On August 16, he gave up six earned runs against the Orioles. Three outings later, he was perfect through for innings against the Tigers. He looked better as a reliever than as a starter. Criswell is a groundball pitcher, running a 49.5% groundball rate (82nd percentile) for the season. Sadly, the Red Sox defense did little to help him. Criswell remains pre-arbitration eligible and under team control for another five years. He provides additional bullpen and rotation depth. It’s extremely beneficial to have interchangeable depth arms like his in Triple A. Role G IP ERA HR WHIP K/9 Starter 18 85 3.49 10 1.24 7.1 Reliever 8 14.1 7.53 0 2.02 3.8 Tyler O’Neill The Red Sox picked up O’Neill from the Cardinals via trade in December. He wasviewed as a replacement for Alex Verdugo, and his 2024 performance constituted an immense upgrade. Despite being injured for a third of the season, he posted 2.5 bWAR. O’Neill led the team in home runs and provided balance to the team’s lefty-heavy lineup, hitting 16 homers and running an astonishing 1.179 OPS against lefties over 156 plate appearances. Among batters who got at least 100 PAs against left-handed pitchers, his 214 wRC+ made him the third-best in all of baseball. O’Neill’s inability to stay healthy and his high strikeout rate made him frustrating to watch at times. However, Breslow made the right move to trade for a cheaper outfielder (O’Neill: $5.5 million, Verdugo: $8.7 million) with higher upside while receiving two pitchers who made immediate contributions to the team. Romy Gonzalez Journeyman utility players seem to flourish under Alex Cora’s management and Romy Gonzalez is no exception. Gonzalez was an awesome pickup. He had a breakout season in 2024, slashing .269 /.310/.425 for a wRC+ of 100. His defensive versatility and much-needed right-handed bench bat kept the team afloat. Even more encouraging was his contact quality, he ran a 92.3 average exit velocity and 50.7% hard-hit rate, both of which would have put him in the 90th percentile. Speaking of the 90th percentile, Gonzalez's sprint speed of 29.0 ft/s allowed him to join Ceddanne Rafaela, David Hamilton, and Jarren Duran as elite group of speedsters who wreaked havoc on the basepaths. Danny Jansen As the season progressed, Connor Wong’s poor defensive metrics became an ever-growing concern. Picking up Jansen wasn't the sexiest move, but it provided a defensive upgrade and allowed the Red Sox to offload a Rule 5 eligible prospect in order to continue Kyle Teel’s development in Triple-A. Quinn Priester Given the team’s need for starting pitching depth and faith in Vaughn Grissom as their future second baseman, it made sense to trade Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester. Priester’s overall 2024 MiLB stats are lackluster. However, Priester showed promise in his last four starts with the WooSox, running a 2.45 ERA and striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced. There’s additional potential for Priester to develop in the offseason and he could be on the major league team sometime early next season. Lucas Sims and Luis García Breslow traded for Sims and García in an attempt to bolster the bullpen for a potential playoff push. Spoiler alert: these trades were a bust. Both pitchers got pummeled, and about a month after the trade deadline, both were placed on the IL. Player G IP ERA K/9 FIP WHIP K% bWAR Lucas Sims 14 13 6.92 6.23 6.09 1.54 16.1 -0.4 Luis García 13 13.1 8.78 8.10 5.49 1.65 19.0 -0.6 The team’s 36.2% playoff odds around the trade deadline didn’t warrant emptying the farm for rental pitchers. Matthew Lugo, Niko Kavadas, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Nick Yorke are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter. The Sox probably wouldn’t have added them to the 40-man roster, so trading them for much-needed bullpen help and starting pitching depth was a practical solution. So far, Breslow has demonstrated that he’s a competent major-league talent evaluator. His deadline moves deadline didn’t pan out, but Breslow showed he was a man of action and tried to address the team’s needs. That’s better than doing nothing. The team's new pitching program nurtured success and will continue to develop effective pitchers. Their starters' 3.78 ranks second in baseball, though their 4.11 FIP ranks 17th. These stats mark a substantial improvement from 2023. Moreover, the team drafted 13 college pitchers, an all-time high, in the 2024 draft. College draftees typically climb through the minors faster than high school prospects, so fans might see some of these pitchers sooner than expected at Fenway. In his first offseason, Breslow supplemented the roster with several depth players. The organization now has more quality pitching depth than it did last year. Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and David Sandlin yield replacement-level pitching at the very least, but their ceilings indicate greater potential. Justin Slaten, Luis Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock, and Greg Weissert appear to be a legitimate bullpen core to build upon next season. Breslow confronted the team’s lack of right-handed bats, adding Romy Gonzalez and Tyler O’Neill. Gonzalez is a reliable right-hand bat off the bench. (O’Neill’s future with the team remains uncertain.) The Red Sox are one of the most historic and valuable franchises in the league. The phrase “outperforming expectations” sets a low bar for the organization, and it’s frustrating to hear it repeated year after year. This offseason's success hinges on whether the front office is willing to invest in addressing key weaknesses, particularly in front-line starting pitching depth, additional relievers, and a right-handed power bat. With logjams in the outfield and at the back end of the rotation, there are multiple opportunities to address these needs. They risk wasting time and money on aging reclamation projects. Breslow could consider trading a combination of major-league players and prospects for a starting or relief pitcher, or he could pursue big-name signings like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. In essence, Breslow is tasked with cooking a three-Michelin star meal (building a championship-caliber team), but at the moment, the pantry is stocked with Spam, Velveeta, and Entenmann's donuts. He needs the right ingredients to create a championship-caliber team. Let Craig cook. View full article

I've always thought the Phillies and Red Sox might match up in a trade since we have a surplus of outfielders and their OF seems to be a weak point for the team.

Story brings much-needed stability at shortstop. We witnessed our infield defense fall apart after his shoulder injury in early April. The poor defense at shortstop has exacerbated our pitching issues. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Josh Winckowski’s post over 50% GB%. We need solid defense behind our pitchers that throw for high GB%. Despite only playing in 148 games over the past two seasons, Story’s produced 3.5 rWAR and 2.4 dWAR. If Story can stay healthy for the entire season and hit around .250 in 2025, fans will be happy with his performance.

Big agree. In addition to the logjam of outfielders, the team has a decent number of #4-#5 SPs that could be part of a trade package. They certainly can build on their 2024 success, but the FO needs to provide the resources to build a legitimate rotation that isn't solely comprised of #4-#5 guys.

Both Priester and Fitts look like they could provide legitimate depth for the 2025 rotation. Fitts also had an up-and-down year in Triple A before being called up to the majors. I wanted to take his first start with a grain of salt since he was pitching against the White Sox. However, he looked absolutely superb in his recent start against the Yankees, whiffing Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Sadly, the bullpen couldn't finish the job.

If you don't like Fenway Park, you're not a a baseball fan. No other stadium in the league lets "normal" fans sit right next to the bullpens or see players enter and exit the stadium—there's nothing like it.

Thank you for your kind words! 😊 I’m glad you enjoyed the piece. I appreciate your support and look forward to sharing more articles in the future! Aside from beating up on Cole, I think it boils down to post All-Star break fatigue with the offense dying and the bullpen's inability to hold a lead. Before the All-Star break, the team held a 4-2 record against the Yankees. Afterwards? Their record is 2-5. The Sox have certainly shown that they *can* get to the Yankees pitching staff. They scored at least 5 runs in 5/6 of their wins against the Yankees. It’s interesting to see that the Sox and Yankees splits are flipped for RS/RA and W/L.