Maddie Landis

Maddie and Alex join to talk about the heartbreaking loss as the Red Sox were shut out against the Yankees in game three of the Wild Card round. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

Alex and Maddie are joined by Brock Beauchamp to talk about the closely-fought Red Sox win over the Yankees in game one of the Wild Card round. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

Weekly Snapshot Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall 89-73) Runs Scored Last Week: 21 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 16 Scores Game 157 (9/23) | BOS 4, TOR 1 Game 158 (9/24) | BOS 7, TOR 1 Game 159 (9/25) | BOS 1, TOR 6 Game 160 (9/26) | DET, 3, BOS 4 Game 161 (9/27) | DET 2, BOS 1 Game 162 (9/28) | DET 3, BOS 4 Transactions 9/21/25: DFA’d Ali Sánchez 9/23/25: Activated Wilyer Abreu (right calf strain) from the 10-day IL 9/23/25: Outrighted Ali Sánchez to Triple-A Worcester 9/28/25: Activated José De León TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights Blue Jays series: In Game 1, Lucas Giolito took the mound and yielded one run across 4.2 innings. The bullpen (Wilson, Whitlock, Slaten, and Chapman) tossed 4.1 scoreless innings. Nathaniel Lowe (+25.8% WPA) led the Red Sox’s offense and drove in two runs. Carlos Narváez hit a two-run RBI double in the sixth inning to cement the team’s lead. Tuesday night, Garrett Crochet had a clean outing. He threw eight scoreless innings and recorded six strikeouts. On the other hand, Max Scherzer, the Blue Jays starter, was taken out of the game after yielding four earned runs through five innings. Masataka Yoshida and Carlos Narváez hit home runs. In Game 3, things went awry for the Red Sox. In the bottom of the sixth, a Trevor Story error catapulted the Blue Jays’ offense, leading them to score six runs. At the top of the seventh, Story hit an RBI single to score Jarren Duran from second base; the Red Sox’s sole run of the game. Tigers series: Friday night felt like a playoff game. The Red Sox started the game on the verge of clinching a postseason berth. Despite recording six strikeouts in three innings (albeit with three earned runs), Red Sox starter Kyle Harrison was pulled early. Alex Cora turned to the Red Sox’s bullpen. Justin Slaten, Steven Matz, Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, Garrett Whitlock, and Aroldis Chapman came through and prevented the Tigers from scoring again. Masataka Yoshida, the team’s hottest hitter, drove in the first run of the game. With the game tied in the bottom of the ninth, Ceddanne Rafaela hit a walk-off triple. After Friday night’s celebrations, Alex Cora rested some of the team’s starters. Red Sox starter Connelly Early recorded seven strikeouts and two earned runs through five innings. The Tigers' pitchers held the Red Sox’s offense to one run. With the win, Detroit punched its way into the playoffs. In the final game of the regular season, Masataka Yoshida got to work quickly and demolished a 384-ft home run (HR: 30/30 parks). José De León, who was called up to provide the bullpen with some rest, racked up eight strikeouts through 6.2 innings. He yielded three earned runs, but the Red Sox’s offense (Jarren Duran: 2B, one RBI, David Hamilton: one HR, two RBIs) outscored the Tigers. ICMYI: After Friday night’s win, the Red Sox clinched a playoff berth. Starting Tuesday, they’ll play Yankees in New York over a three-game Wild Card series. It’s great to see the Red Sox play baseball in the fall again. Be sure to follow Talk Sox’s Red Sox coverage throughout the postseason! Random Stats For the 2025 season, the Red Sox have the best bullpen in the AL (6.8 fWAR). Last year, their bullpen ranked 17th (3.5 fWAR). Meanwhile, the Yankees bullpen (2.0 fWAR) grades at 22nd in the majors. Carlos Narváez has posted a 172 wRC+ vs the Yankees, the highest among Red Sox hitters from 2024 to 2025. Alex Bregman was one of the team’s least productive hitters in September (2.16 BA, 640 OPS, 76 wRC+). Since 2004, the Red Sox have an 8-4 record against the Yankees in the postseason. Website Highlights Boston Red Sox Minor League Hitters of the Year (2025) by Nick John Masataka Yoshida’s Rocky 2025 Has Taken A Pleasant Turn by Nick John Five Red Sox Prospects Who Underperformed Expectations in 2025 by Billy Mock Garrett Corchet Suddenly Looks Mortal. Is Time Away from Fenway the Cure-All? by Brandon Glick Wilyer Abreu is the Red Sox’s Offensive Wild Card Heading into October by Alex Mayes Looking Ahead September 30th: Red Sox @ Yankees - 6:08 pm EDT October 1st: Red Sox @ Yankees - 6:08 pm EDT *October 2nd: Red Sox @ Yankees - 6:08 pm EDT *If necessary View full article

In early 2024, a significant number of high-profile pitchers were sidelined due to injuries, prompting media outlets to speculate about a possible epidemic. Baseball players, the MLBPA, and MLB listed different sources of the issue: the pitch clock, the rise of movement-heavy pitches, and pitchers throwing harder. However, the issue isn’t limited to professional baseball. High school players and coaches are also reporting an increase in elbow injuries. In medical terms, Tommy John surgery is referred to as ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction. Ligaments connect bones to other bones; the UCL stabilizes the humerus (upper arm) and the ulna (lower arm). Professional athletes push their bodies to the limit. Baseball is a repetitive game, and pitching itself is an unnatural motion to undertake, especially when throwing pitches at high velocities with funky movement. The unnatural repetitive motion of pitching induces high levels of valgus forces on the elbow, leading to the ligament to break away, stretch, and in the worst case scenario, tear. Since 2019, 10/12 (roughly 83%) of the Cy Young Award winners have gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery. (The only pitchers that haven't are Tr*vor B*uer in 2020 and Blake Snell in 2023.) Some pitchers successfully return post-surgery, and in some cases, their performance improves, while others don’t fare as well. A pitcher landing on the IL with Tommy John surgery is a gut punch to the player on a personal level and the team’s roster. The surgery is a season-ending injury, with the recovery time varying between 12 to 18 months. For prospects, some teams might avoid drafting a pitcher who has undergone Tommy John surgery. (Albeit, in some cases like Bryan Woo and Tarik Skubal, the surgery hasn't affected their future performance.) For established players, the surgery prevents them from playing and it can affects their leverage in securing a long-term contract. How can we prevent players from injuring themselves? Scouts target velocity when evaluating pitching talent. This won’t change. While there are rare examples where pitchers aren’t born with a UCL (à la R.J. Dickey) or their UCL calcifies over time to stabilize their elbow, most athletes don't win the genetic lottery and aren’t born with injury-averse bodies. Year-round baseball puts continuous strain on a player’s body, increasing the risk of overuse injuries. Cross-training in other sports offers a way to stay in shape while reducing that wear and tear on the body. I propose a relatively simple solution to help prevent elbow injuries: start rock climbing. Rock climbing strengthens the flexor pronator muscles, which are secondary stabilizers that cushion the UCL from high valgus forces. A study conducted in 2015 found, “The flexor pronator muscles (specifically the Flexor carpi ulnaris, Pronator teres, and Flexor digitorum superficialis) may help protect baseball pitchers from ulnar collateral ligament injuries and weakness of these muscles might make individuals prone to ulnar collateral ligament injuries and subsequent valgus overload syndrome.” The conclusion emphasized: The palmarus longus is often used as the graft tendon to replace the damaged UCL. If a player already has weak forearm muscles, their surgery might not be successful. It should be a priority to maintain proper strength of the flexor pronator muscles, aka forearm muscles, throughout the season, and rock climbing is the perfect exercise to do so. Image from “Forearm Muscle Strains Have an Alarming Relationship with UCL Injuries” by Christopher S. Ahmad, M.D. Typical grip strengthening exercises include isometric exercises and resistance training. Sometimes you’ll see players using grip trainers at baseball games. (I have one next to my laptop as I’m typing this piece.) Stationary lifting comes with its own set of limitations. Many popular weight training exercises (bicep curls, calf raises, leg extensions, dumbbell shrugs, etc.) isolate a single muscle group. These exercises neglect training the stabilizer muscles and can create muscle imbalances. If you’ve ever seen someone who doesn’t hit their legs at the gym, you know what I mean. (Never skip leg day.) Rock climbing engages the body in a dynamic range of movement. Plus, it’s an engaging team-building activity compared to traditional stationary lifting. Muscle Groups Worked By Rock Climbing Muscle Group Main Functions Back Pulling, stabilization Arms Pulling, hanging, supporting Shoulders Stabilization, mobility Forearms Grip strength Core Spine/pelvis stabilization Glutes/Hip flexors Leg drive, mobility Quads/Hamstrings Controlled moves Calves Balance, footwork Chart from Climbontherocks.com I’ve outlined a very rough study to determine the benefits of incorporating rock climbing into a baseball player's training regimen: Hypothesis: If baseball pitchers add rock climbing to their training, their grip strength, spin rate, command, and velocity will increase. Independent variable: addition of rock climbing training Dependent variable: athletes’ performance Control: baseball players not adding rock climbing to their training routine Data Measure grip strength before the study Measure grip strength afterward Compare performance with: Before implementing climbing After implementing climbing Pitchers Extension Velocity Spin rate Command Zone% First-Pitch Strike% Pitch Location Metrics (Pitch Location by Zone, Location Heat Map) Z-Swing% SwStr% Batters Average bat speed Fast swing rate Contact rate Hard Hit% Barrel% I included some batter metrics in the outline because rock climbing benefits different aspects of baseball by increasing grip strength. Pitchers can’t have all the fun! For batters, grip strength enhances bat swing and control. For position players, it enables a quicker transfer of the ball from the glove to the hand and improves throwing accuracy. Pitchers tinker with their grips throughout the season and a higher grip strength increases their overall accuracy and power. Core strength is a critical component of rock climbing. When climbing, the core acts as your control center, stabilizing your head, arms, shoulders, and legs. Consequently, rock climbers typically have stronger obliques. Earlier this year, I wrote about bat speed and discussed the correlation between the rising emphasis on bat speed and increase in oblique injuries. Rock climbing could benefit batters by helping them maintain their core strength to prevent oblique strains. The rise of indoor rock climbing centers in the United States opens avenues for MLB teams to partner with local businesses. Central Rock Gym is a one-minute walk away from Fenway Park. Teams that play in the Cactus League in Arizona over spring training have the opportunity to rock climb in an outdoor setting. That’s not to say rock climbing doesn’t come with risks and injuries. As with any sport, overuse injuries are common. The most common climbing injury is a finger pulley tear. Other injuries include climber’s elbow and Triangular Fibrocartilage Complex Tears (TFCC). You wouldn’t want a player to deal with any of these during the season. However, with training that emphasizes proper mechanics, the benefits outweigh the risks. I concede that this is a zany idea, and I’m not a medical expert or a licensed trainer. By no means am I suggesting that baseball players should free solo El Capitan! But incorporating rock climbing into a player's training regime just 2-3 times per week could be beneficial. Innovative, progressive MLB teams were initially met with skepticism before their ideas were adopted by the rest of the league. Consider baseball's analytics revolution. Out-of-the-box approaches, such as baseball players cross-training with rock climbing, could lead to significant improvements in injury prevention and player performance. View full article

Weekly Snapshot Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall 85-71) Runs Scored Last Week: 29 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 28 Standings 2nd in the AL East 5.0 GB 1st Place Currently hold the 2nd WC Spot Scores Game 150 (9/16) | ATH 2, BOS 1 Game 151 (9/17) | ATH 4, BOS 5 Game 152 (9/18) | ATH 5, BOS 3 Game 153 (9/19) | BOS 11, TBR 7 Game 154 (9/20) | BOS 6, TBR 3 Game 155 (9/21) |BOS 3, TBR 7 TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights A’s series: In Game 1, the Red Sox’s pitching put together a strong performance, but the team’s offense (0-7 with RISP) didn’t come through. Connelly Early threw 5.1 shutout innings and recorded 7 strikeouts. https://x.com/pitchingninja/status/1968110610278912300?s=42 Game 2, the A’s and Red Sox engaged in a cat-and-mouse game. Lucas Giolito yielded 4 earned runs across 4.1 innings. The Red Sox’s bullpen came in early and, to their credit, held the A’s to 4 runs. Trevor Story tied the game in the 5th with an RBI single. Pinch-hitter Nick Sogard walked the game off, bringing home Nate Eaton from 3rd. https://x.com/MLB/status/1968501052065398880 Bryan Bello took the mound in the final game of the series. The A’s got to work quickly and scored 3 runs off him in the top of the first inning. Masataka Yoshida, Trevor Story, and David Hamilton drove in the Red Sox’s 3 runs of the game. Rays series: On Friday night, Garrett Crochet was knocked around a bit. Carson Williams and Yandy Díaz hit home runs off him early in the game. The Red Sox held a narrow lead until the 8th inning, scoring 7 runs to put the score at 11-3. Chris Murphy came in to close the game. Everson Pereira hit a grand slam to cut the team’s lead down to 4 runs. Fortunately, he got out of the jam. https://x.com/MLBHRs_/status/1969228877902856583 Game 2, Kyle Harrison made his debut as a starter. He looked solid, yielding 1 earned run and recording 5 strikeouts across 6.0 innings. After Trevor Story hit a go-ahead single in the top of the 9th, the Red Sox took the lead and won 6-3. https://x.com/welcomeMLB/status/1969576683054514427 Things went awry in the final game of the series. The Rays scored 3 runs off Connelly Early in the bottom of the first. (These were the only earned runs scored against Early in the game.) Through the eighth inning, the Rays held a narrow 1-run lead until they drove in 3 more runs off Payton Tolle. The Rays avoided a sweep, winning 7-3. https://x.com/RaysBaseball/status/1969949031116804514 Random Stats Red Sox starters’ ERA (5.25) ranks 25th in the 1st inning. Trevor Story has posted a .324 BA, .881 OPS, and 141 wRC+ in September. Masataka Yoshida led the team in RBIs (6) between September 14th and September 22nd. 8/14 of pitchers on the Red Sox’s roster are left-handed pitchers. Website Highlights Two Years Later, the Chris Sale-Vaughn Grissom Trade Continues to Haunt Craig Breslow by Nick John Nate Eaton's Emergence Has Helped Salvage Red Sox's Lineup In September by Alex Mayes Red Sox Catchers Are Stepping Up When They're Needed Most by Brandon Glick Three Internal Names to Watch When the Red Sox Begin Their GM Search by Alex Mayes Looking Ahead September 23rd: Red Sox (Giolito) @ Blue Jays (Gausman): 7:07 pm EDT September 24th: Red Sox (Crochet) @ Blue Jays (Scherzer): 7:07 pm EDT September 25th: Red Sox (Bello) @ Blue Jays (Bieber): 7:07 pm EDT September 26th: Tigers @ Red Sox: 7:10 pm EDT September 27th: Tigers @ Red Sox: 4:10 pm EDT September 28th: Tigers @ Red Sox: 3:05 pm EDT View full article

Call me crazy, but I'm not that pressed about the Priester trade. The Brewers have a phenomenal player development system. They turned Andrew Vaughn (White Sox: 47 OPS+, Brewers: 141 OPS+) into a stud. Priester posts a 56.8% GB rate (95th percentile). Given how volatile the Red Sox's infield defense has been, I don't think Priester would have achieved the same level of success in Boston as he has with the Brewers. Looking at Savant's Fielding Run Value Leaderboard with the infield split applied, the Brewers (9) rank 9th, and the Red Sox (-16) are 28th.

Weekly Snapshot Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall 82-68) Runs Scored Last Week: 27 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 18 Standings 2nd in the AL East 5.5 GB 1st Place Currently hold the 2nd WC Spot Transactions 9/9/25: Recalled Vaughn Grissom from Triple-A Worcester 9/9/25: Selected the Connelly Early’s contract from Triple-A Worcester 9/9/25: Placed Vaugn Grissom (plantar fasciitis) on the 60-day IL 9/9/25: Placed Dustin May (right elbow neuritis) on the 15-day IL 9/9/25: Sent Luis Guerrero on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Worcester 9/10/25:Recalled Kyle Harrison from Triple-A Worcester 9/10/25: Optioned Chris Murphy to Triple-A Worcester 9/12/25: Recalled Chris Murphy from Triple-A Worcester 9/12/25: Placed Brennan Bernadino (left lat strain) on 15-day IL 9/13/25: Signed John Brebbia to a minor league contract Scores Game 145 (9/8) | BOS 7, ATH 0 Game 146 (9/9) | BOS 6, ATH 0 Game 147 (9/10) | BOS 4, ATH 5 Game 148 (9/12) | NYY 4, BOS 1 Game 149 (9/13) | NYY 5, BOS 3 Game 150 (9/14) | NYY 4, BOS 6 TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights A’s series: In Game 1, Garrett Crochet bounced back after his previous start versus Cleveland, fanning 10 batters in 7.0 innings. Trevor Story crushed his team-leading 24th home run of the season, and the Red Sox outslugged the A’s 7-0. Connelly Early made his major league debut on Tuesday night. The southpaw looked dominant and tied a franchise record with 11 strikeouts. Rob Refsnyder hit a 463-foot moonshot to left field, the longest home run hit by a Red Sox this season. The A’s were shut out again, and the Red Sox won 6-0. Payton Tolle took the mound in the final game of the series. He only lasted two innings, yielding two earned runs—both of which were home runs. In the top of the ninth, Refsnyder hit an RBI double to tie the game. Aroldis Chapman attempted to hold the team’s lead, but Lawrence Butler hit a walk-off single and prevented the A’s from getting swept. Yankees series: The Red Sox’s offense looked anemic on Friday and Saturday. To kick off the series, Yankees starter Luis Gil held a no-hitter through six innings. However, Nate Eaton prevented a shutout with a home run in the bottom of the seventh. In Game 2, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3-5, three RBIs) carried the Yankees' offense. The Red Sox went 1-7 with runners in scoring position and lost the game 5-3. On Sunday night, the Red Sox quickly got to work and scored six runs off Will Warren in the bottom of the first. These were the only runs the team scored for the entire game, but they were enough to secure the win and avoid getting swept. Garrett Crochet tied his season-high record with 12 strikeouts. This upcoming week, the Red Sox face the Athletics again before heading down to Tampa for their final series versus the Rays. Website Highlights Anthony Rizzo Retires, Leaving Fans to Wonder: How Might Recent History Look Had He Stayed with Red Sox? by Jordan Leandre Trevor Story's Offensive Output Places Him Among Red Sox Greats by Alex Mayes Craig Breslow Will (Finally) Search for a General Manager This Offseason by Maddie Landis What's at Stake for Red Sox in Final 5 Series of the Season? by Nick John If Not First Base, Where Will Kristian Campbell's Home Be in Boston? by Brandon Glick Looking Ahead August 16th: Athletics (Springs) @ Red Sox: 6:45 pm EDT August 17th: Athletics (Barnett) @ Red Sox: 6:45 pm EDT August 18th: Athletics (Ginn) @ Red Sox: 6:45 pm EDT August 19th: Red Sox @ Rays: 7:35 pm EDT August 20th: Red Sox @ Rays: 7:05 pm EDT August 21st: Red Sox @ Rays: 7:35 pm EDT View full article

The song “Right Hand Man” in the groundbreaking Broadway musical Hamilton introduces George Washington, then the Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War. In the midst of the New York and New Jersey Campaign, he laments about his “dire need for assistance”. Subsequently, Alexander Hamilton, the titular protagonist of the musical, is appointed Aide-De-Camp to the Commander-in-Chief. Much like Washington, Craig Breslow, the Red Sox’s Chief Baseball Officer (CBO), is looking for his right-hand man. Rob Bradford of WEEI reported that Breslow will focus on hiring a general manager in the offseason. Since hiring Breslow in October 2023, the Red Sox have operated without a GM for nearly two years. Now, it looks like things will change this offseason. Baseball’s hiring cycle starts towards the end of the regular season and concludes shortly after the Winter Meetings in December. Glancing at an MLB job board in mid-September, you’ll see hundreds of entry-level job postings. On the other hand, executive-level front office roles are spread through word of mouth. If a team fires its GM in the middle of the season, one can surmise that the team will fill the position in the offseason. Corporate hierarchy lingo has always befuddled me (Succession was my first and only introduction to C-suite roles in corporate America). Titles vary between teams across the league. Throughout my life, the Red Sox have utilized varying degrees of corporate jargon to designate the person steering baseball operations, including General Manager, President of Baseball Operations, and Chief Baseball Officer. For the current structure of the Red Sox’s front office, the General Manager will work under Craig Breslow. Baseball operations executives wear many hats, managing finances, engaging in negotiations to secure deals, and delving into baseball analytics to field a winning roster. After almost two years as the Red Sox’s CBO, it’s evident that Breslow excels in player development. Under his leadership, the Red Sox acquired Aroldis Chapman, a veteran reliever who was seemingly past his prime, but he has rejuvenated his career with the team this year. He also threw caution to the wind and shipped top prospects to the White Sox in exchange for Garrett Crochet, an elite ace the team desperately needed. Crochet’s strong performance in his first season with the team has garnered attention about a potential Cy Young Award. The new GM’s role will likely involve administering player acquisitions and roster turnover, areas of weakness for Breslow. He’s whiffed on some moves, ex. trading Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom in December 2023 and receiving James Tibbs III (later dealt for Dustin May), Kyle Harrison, and Jordan Hicks for Rafael Devers this past June. Trade deadlines have been another weak spot for Breslow. According to Fangraphs, the Red Sox currently hold a 95.6% chance of making the playoffs. While Steven Matz (1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 IP) has quietly been a solid reliever for the Red Sox, the team should’ve done more to strengthen their rotation at the deadline. After the Joe Ryan deal fell through, the Red Sox didn’t have a backup plan. Having another person primarily focused on contingency planning would have prevented the team from scrambling at the last minute to acquire Dustin May. While some CBOs/GMs excel at player development and roster transactions, Breslow has not yet proven he’s one of those guys. Acknowledging your shortcomings is the first step to solving them. Will Breslow break out in a song to kickstart his search for a GM? Probably not, but this is a good step for the organization’s future. Who do you think the Red Sox should consider for a GM? Let us know in the comments! View full article

Weekly Snapshot 3-3 Record Last Week 31 Runs Scored Last Week 38 Runs Surrendered Last Week Standings 3rd in the AL East (Overall: 79-65) 4.0 GB 1st Place 2nd AL Wild Card Berth Scores Game 139 (9/1) | CLE 4, BOS 6 Game 140 (9/2) | CLE 7, BOS 11 Game 141 (9/3) | CLE 8, BOS 1 Game 142 (9/5) | BOS 5, AZ 10 Game 143 (9/6) | BOS 1, AZ 5 Game 144 (9/7) | BOS 4, AZ 7 Transactions: 9/1/25: Recalled Zack Kelly from Triple-A Worcester 9/1/25: Selected the contract of Ali Sánchez from Triple-A Worcester 9/1/25: Transferred Marcelo Mayer (right wrist sprain) from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL 9/2/25: Sent Luis Gerrero on a rehab assignment to Double-A Portland 9/3/25: Recalled Nick Sogard from Triple-A Worcester 9/3/25: Placed Roman Anthony (left oblique strain) on the 10-day IL 9/5/25: Recalled Chris Murphy from Triple-A Worcester 9/5/25: Placed Jordan Hicks (right shoulder tendonitis) on the 15-day IL TL;DR/Highlights Guardians Series: Brayan Bello took the mound on Monday night. In the bottom of the second, he got himself into a loaded bases jam after walking 2 batters and yielding a single to Nolan Jones. The Guardians capitalized on the opportunity to score three runs via two singles, but this wasn’t enough for them to overcome the Red Sox. Carlos Narváez came in to pinch-hit in the fifth inning to tie the game. Trevor Story hit two RBIs, one of them was a sneaky 306-foot home run. In Game 2, the Guardians teed the ball off Garrett Crochet. He yielded seven earned runs across six innings, a season high. Roman Anthony left the game abruptly in the fourth inning. The subsequent day, he was diagnosed with a strained left oblique. Luckily, the Guardians' pitching was unable to withstand the Red Sox offense. Ceddanne Rafaela drove in four runs, and Alex Bregman sparked a four-run rally in the eighth to give the Red Sox the lead. Wednesday night, Guardians starter Joey Cantillo held the Red Sox to one run through six innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox utilized a bullpen game to provide their starters some relief. Brennan Bernadino opened the game and was pulled early after facing four batters. Hicks completed the first inning, but yielded four runs in the second. The Guardians scored eight total runs in the blowout. Surprisingly, Zack Kelly provided the Red Sox’s bullpen with some rest, recording four strikeouts in four scoreless innings. Diamondbacks Series: Payton Tolle took the mound in Game 1. The Diamondbacks got to him quickly and scored five runs in three innings. Despite their .500 record, the Diamondbacks have a potent offense, more so than the anemic Pirates, who Tolle faced in his debut. Last season, they scored the most runs in baseball (886). Come the eighth inning, it looked like the Red Sox were going to make a comeback. They scored four runs to cut their deficit to one. Alas, Justin Slaten came up short in relief and allowed the Diamondbacks to score four runs and take the lead in the eighth inning. In Game 2, the Red Sox’s offensive woes continued. Red Sox Nation Stats reported that the team set a franchise record of five single-season games with fewer than one run scored, no walks, and nine or more strikeouts. Lucas Giolito allowed seven hits and two earned runs over five innings. Early in the game, Trevor Story let a grounder slip by him with the bases loaded, and the Diamondbacks scored two runs. Later on, Ceddanne Rafaela stole a home run from Corbin Carroll. This was one of the best plays of the season, and he deserves all the recognition for his defensive prowess. Sunday afternoon, Bryan Bello took the mound. The Diamondbacks scored three runs off him across six innings. Jarren Duran made a nice sliding play on a Jordan Lawlar flyout in the third inning. It initially looked like another one-run game for the Red Sox until the seventh inning. David Hamilton sparked a rally to cut the Diamondbacks’ lead. In the eighth, Connor Wong reached first on a throwing error, and Nathaniel Lowe and David Hamilton scored. The Red Sox briefly held a 4-3 lead as the Diamondbacks tied the game later in the inning. Fortunately, Nick Sogard came in to pinch-hit and drove in two runs. Carlos Narvaez subsequently added another run via a single. With Aroldis Chapman closing the game, the Red Sox avoided a sweep. Random Stats Before Garrett Crochet broke his career high innings pitched (146.0) mark on August 5, he held a 2.24 ERA, 24.4% K-BB%, and 2.51 FIP. Since then, he’s posted a 4.38 ERA, 26.0 K-BB%, and 4.19 FIP. Following Roman Anthony’s injury, the Red Sox’s offense ranks 29th, the second-worst in baseball. Aroldis Chapman’s ERA is 1.00. You read that correctly. He hasn’t allowed an earned run or a hit since July 23. Since August 24, Rafael Devers has posted a 250 wRC+, the second-best in baseball behind Juan Soto (262 wRC+). Website Highlights Which Outfield Permutation Should the Red Sox Choose Following Roman Anthony’s Injury? by Nick John Kristian Campbell Shouldn’t Come Up to Boston Before 2026 by Alex Mayes Alex Bregman’s Cold Stretch Is Cause for Concern, but It Is Fixable by Brandon Glick Stock Up, Stock Down: Red Sox Players to Watch in September by Jordan Leandre Looking Ahead September 8th: Red Sox (Crochet) @ Athletics (Morales): 10:05 pm EDT September 9th: Red Sox (May) @ Athletics (Springs): 10:05 pm EDT September 10th: Red Sox (TBD) @ Athletics (Barnett): 3:35 pm EDT September 12th: Red Sox @ Yankees: 7:10 pm EDT September 13th: Red Sox @ Yankees: 4:10 pm EDT September 14th: Red Sox @ Yankees: 7:10 pm EDT View full article

Teams are drafting under-the-radar pitchers who evolve into aces at the major league level. Many of baseball’s current aces were selected in later rounds of the draft. Tarik Skubal was a ninth-round pick in 2018, Joe Ryan was a seventh-round pick in 2018, Bryan Woo was a sixth-round pick in 2021, and Hunter Brown was a fifth-round pick in 2019. I might be speaking prematurely here, but Payton Tolle (a second-round pick in 2024) looked every bit of an ace during his major league debut. I wondered if there was some secret metric that teams utilized to identify top-end talent in later rounds of the draft. While high velocity remains an important metric for evaluating pitchers, there are other factors to consider. Flame-thrower Stephen Strasburg's career was extinguished due to poor pitching mechanics, leading to wear and tear on his body from constantly throwing high-velocity pitches. Notably, after two UCL surgeries, Spencer Strider is struggling without his velocity. This emphasizes a crucial shift in evaluating pitchers. Factors beyond raw speed, such as long extensions, low release heights, and flat vertical approach angles, indicate a pitcher’s ability to miss barrels at the top of the zone with their four-seam fastball. Extension is a mechanical pitching statistic that measures the distance between the pitching rubber and where the pitcher releases the ball. Branch Rickey, former player and GM of the Brooklyn Dodgers, once remarked, “Baseball is a game of inches”. Every seemingly minuscule advantage influences whether or not a team makes the postseason, and ultimately, which team is awarded the Commissioner’s Trophy at the conclusion of the World Series. A pitcher with an extreme extension releases the ball closer to home plate to create the illusion of velocity. Balls thrown closer to home plate have less distance to travel, so to batters, they look faster than they appear. Baseball Savant quantifies this as "perceived velocity". In this case, size matters. While there are some exceptions (cough, cough Oneil Cruz, James Wood, and Aaron Judge), pitchers are the tallest guys on MLB rosters. Height correlates with longer extensions. Logan Gilbert is 6’5” and Tyler Glasnow is 6’8”. Both have 7.6 ft extensions, the longest in baseball, and their four-seam fastballs record a perceived velocity of 97.7 mph (95.4 mph actual) and 98.3 mph (95.8 mph actual), respectively. Rapsodo provides the following definition of release height: While newer Statcast metrics, such as IVB, extension, velocity, etc., are frequently referenced by broadcasters and analysts, they rarely discuss vertical approach angle (VAA). Moreover, Baseball Savant doesn’t list VAA. I had to conduct some extra legwork to find where it’s publicly listed online. Fortunately, Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard includes VAA. You might be wondering, what is vertical approach angle? VAA is a relatively new metric that measures the angle at which a pitch crosses home plate. I’m a visual learner, so I’ve included the following VAA graphic from Baseball Connect. [Image sourced from Baseball Connect] Alex Chamberlain lists the following equation to calculate VAA in his Visualized Primer on VAA: vy_f = -sqrt(vy0² – (2 * ay * (y0 – yf))) t = (vy_f – vy0) / ay vz_f = vz0 + (az * t) VAA = -arctan(vz_f/vy_f) * (180 / pi) where, per Statcast’s documentation: vy0 = The velocity of the pitch, in feet per second, in y-dimension*, determined at y=50 feet. (*toward home plate) ay = The acceleration of the pitch, in feet per second per second, in y-dimension, determined at y=50 feet. y0 = 50 (“y=50 feet”). yf = 17/12 (home plate, converted to inches). vz0 = The velocity of the pitch, in feet per second, in z-dimension**, determined at y=50 feet. (**vertically) az = The acceleration of the pitch, in feet per second per second, in z-dimension, determined at y=50 feet. Consider Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan. Upon first glance, Ryan’s four-seam fastball is unimpressive. It averages at 93.8 mph with 13.6” IVB, but Ryan’s 6.8 ft extension (79th percentile), low vertical release point (4.76 ft) and flat vertical approach angle (-3.9°) creates deceptive rise that causes the pitch to miss bats. Despite its subpar velocity and movement, his four-seamer ranks fifth among starters in strikeout rate (31.1%) and 10th in whiff rate (27.2%). Ryan is a meticulous tinkerer with his mechanics, and Cody Christie from Talk Sox’s sister site, Twins Daily, has posted several excellent write-ups on his fastball over the past year. Ryan has added some velocity to his fastball. Three years ago, Parker Hageman, one of the founders of Twins Daily, posted an overview of Ryan’s fastball when it was averaging around 90 mph. Since then, it's increased to 93.6 mph. On August 13, Ryan recorded the fastest pitch of his career, a 98 mph fastball to strike out Aaron Judge. Even without elite velocity, Ryan’s four-seam fastball is a force to be reckoned with; it’s generated +20 run value, tied for first with Bryan Woo’s, another starter with an illusory fastball thrown at a flat VAA (-3.7°). If Ryan manages to increase its velocity on a consistent basis, the rest of the league had better watch out. When watching old videos of Payton Tolle in college, I couldn’t help but draw comparisons to Woo, the current ace of the Mariners. At 6’6”, Tolle is larger and throws left-handed, but their fastballs are very similar, dominating the upper part of the strike zone. Like Woo, Tolle’s four-seam fastball has gained significant velocity since he was drafted, jumping from the low 90s to a 96.2 mph average in his major league debut. He posted a 5.52 release height and elite 7.5 ft (99th percentile) extension, which factored into his flat vertical approach angle and made his fastball exceptionally effective. Tolle recorded a 37.5% whiff rate on the pitch. While his overall command and secondaries need some refinement, his debut showcased plenty of promise. Payton Tolle's Major League Debut Pitch Pitch% VAA Avg Velo IVB HB Ext Whiff% Four-seam fastball 59.5% -4.2° 96.2 mph 16.3" -6.2" 7.5 ft 37.5% Cutter 23.8% -5.9° 90.1 mph 9.0” 2.0” 7.4 ft 16.7% Changeup 9.5% -6.9° 90.1 mph 1.7” -8.0” 7.5 ft 66.7% Slider 4.4% -8.2° 84.5 mph -6.5” 5.2” 7.4 ft 33.3% So, why does VAA matter? An elite fastball is a solid foundation for a pitcher to build their arsenal. Teams can utilize VAA to identify overlooked pitchers whose four-seam fastballs have the potential to perform better than their initial projections. However, it takes two to tango. Players must be receptive to new information, willing to take input from their coaching staff, and implement changes effectively. Joe Ryan, Bryan Woo, and Payton Tolle have meshed well with their respective organizations’ coaching staffs and player development initiatives. In the worst-case scenario, things might not work out well between the team and the player. It was apparent that Walker Buehler was not receptive to the Red Sox’s pitching staff. On the flip side, teams must communicate effectively with their players. Otherwise, suggested changes might not be implemented. At the end of the day, VAA is another metric to consider when evaluating a pitch’s effectiveness. This article primarily reviewed VAA and four-seam fastballs, and there’s definitely more research to be conducted on the relationship between VAA and other pitch types. VAA depends on several interconnected factors, including the location of the pitch, a pitcher’s extension, and their release height. To effectively leverage a flat VAA for four-seam fastballs, a pitcher must be able to consistently throw the pitch up in the zone and utilize a long extension and a low release height. Hopefully, mainstream baseball databases will soon include VAA in the near future, so armchair analysts like you and me can keep exploring these metrics. View full article

Weekly Snapshot Record Last Week: 5-2 Runs Scored Last Week: 25 Runs Surrendered Last Week: 23 Standings 3rd in the AL East 3.5 GB 1st Place 2nd AL Wild Card Berth Scores Game 132 (8/25) | BOS 4, BAL 3 Game 133 (8/26) | BOS 5, BAL 0 Game 134 (8/27) | BOS 3, BAL 2 Game 135 (8/28) | BOS 3, BAL 2 Game 136 (8/29) | PIT 4, BOS 2 Game 137 (8/30) | PIT 10, BOS 3 Game 138 (8/31) | PIT 2, BOS 5 Transactions 8/26/25: Recalled Jovani Morán from Triple-A Worcester 8/26/25: Placed Richard Fitts (right arm neuritis) on the 15-day IL 8/26/25: Sent Luis Guerrero on a rehab assignment to Single-A Greenville 8/28/25: Optioned Jovani Morán to Triple-A Worcester 8/28/25: Placed Nathaniel Lowe on the paternity list 8/28/25: Activated Rob Refsynder (strained left oblique) from the 10-day IL 8/28/25: Activated Justin Slaten (right shoulder inflammation) from the 60-day IL 8/29/25: Selected the contract of Payton Tolle from Triple-A Worcester 8/29/25: Recalled Nick Sogard from Triple-A Worcester 8/29/25: Optioned Jhostynxon Garcia to Triple-A Worcester 8/29/25: Released Walker Buehler 8/30/25: Optioned Nick Sogard to Triple-A Worcester 8/30/25: Activated Nathaniel Lowe from the paternity list 8/31/25: New York Mets traded Ali Sánchez to the Boston Red Sox TL;DR/Highlights Orioles series: As I wrote last week, it’s tough to execute sweeps in a four-game series. However, this past week, the Red Sox completed a 4-game series against the Orioles. In Game 1, Roman Anthony hit his first leadoff home run. Red Sox starter Richard Fitts was pulled early from the game, leaving the bullpen to finish the job. He was later diagnosed with right arm neuritis (a nerve inflammation). Game 2, Lucas Giolito tossed eight scoreless innings. David Hamilton and Trevor Story hit home runs, and the team’s offense generated five runs. It looked like the Red Sox were about to lose Game 3, but Ceddanne Rafaela hit a go-ahead home run in the top of the ninth to secure the Red Sox’s lead. In the final game of the series, Roman Anthony hit his second lead-off home run. It’s reassuring to see him finally start tapping into his power. Jhostynxon Garcia recorded his first major league hit, a double in the fifth inning. Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet recorded seven strikeouts and yielded two earned runs in six innings. Pirates series: Game 1 featured a marquee pitching matchup. Pirates ace Paul Skenes took the mound, and Payton Tolle made his major league debut. Tolle looked sharp, racking eight strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox knocked around Paul Skenes. He yielded seven hits, tied for a season high. (The Reds recorded seven hits against Skenes on August 7). Unfortunately, the team didn’t do much and went 1-7 with RISP. Roman Anthony hit a home run off Skenes in the bottom of the fifth inning. The Pirates won the game 4-2. In Game 2, the team’s bats were dormant, and the Pirates teed the ball off the Red Sox’s pitchers. Dustin May yielded six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Brennan Bernardino gave up an additional two runs to solidify the Pirates' lead. Much to the relief of Red Sox fans, the team avoided getting swept by the Pirates on Sunday. Lucas Giolito tossed another gem (three hits, one earned run, and six strikeouts in 6.0 innings pitched). The team’s offense went on a tear in the fifth inning. Jarren Duran hit his first inside-the-park home run to drive in three runs. Can you believe it’s already September? The Red Sox play the Guardians in a quick three-game series at the beginning of the week before traveling to Phoenix to play the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Random Stats Sox Stats is active again on social media! I missed their presence, and they’re a great follow for in-depth Red Sox stats. See their post on Roman Anthony’s swing evolution over his first three months in the majors: The team’s starting pitching was solid out in August. Bello and Giolito’s strikeout rates could be higher, but everyone in the rotation can’t be a high-velocity, high strikeout type of pitcher. Garrett Crochet: 3.19 ERA, 28.2% K-BB% across 31.0 IP Brayan Bello: 2.27 ERA, 15.3% K-BB% across 31 2/3 IP Lucas Giolito: 2.39 ERA, 7.1% K-BB% across 37 2/3 IP Payton Tolle looked amazing in his debut: 3.38 ERA, 38.2% K-BB% in 5 1/3 IP AL Rookie of the Year watch: Roman Anthony and Carlos Narváez are tied for the second most fWAR (2.7) among rookies this year. David Hamilton surprisingly recorded 149 wRC+ in August, the second-best on the team behind Rob Refsnyder (152 wRC+). Sometimes it only takes a change of scenery for a player to reach their full potential. Since joining the Red Sox, Nathaniel Lowe has posted a .323 BA, .873 OPS, and 138 wRC+. He previously posted a .216 BA and .665 OPS, and 85 wRC+ with the Nationals. Website Highlights Aroldis Chapman's Extension is a Gamble, but It's One Worth Taking by Alex Mayes Pay Your Toll(e): Payton Tolle's Promotion Proves Red Sox Are Going All-In This Season by Nick John Lucas Giolito Has A Looming Mutual Option. Both Sides Should Be Interested In Exercising It by Alex Mayes Brayan Bello is Emerging as a True No. 2 Starter by Jordan Leandre Examining the Red Sox's Playoff Scenarios and Schedule by Maddie Landis Looking Ahead September 1st: Guardians (Messick) vs Red Sox (Bello) - 1:35 pm EDT September 2nd: Guardians (TBD) vs Red Sox (Crochet) - 6:45 pm EDT September 3rd: Guardians vs Red Sox - 6:45 pm EDT September 5th: Red Sox vs Diamondbacks - 9:40 pm EDT September 6th: Red Sox vs Diamondbacks - 8:10 pm EDT September 7th: Red Sox vs Diamondbacks - 4:10 pm EDT View full article

Upcoming Schedule The Red Sox will spend 50% of September on the road. At the beginning of the month, they’ll be playing the Diamondbacks and Athletics on the West Coast. They return home to play the Yankees and the Athletics (again). Towards the end of September, they play the Rays in “Tampa” and the Blue Jays in Toronto. They finish the season at home with a three-game series versus the Tigers. September 1st-3rd: Guardians (Home) September 5th-7th: Diamondbacks (Away) September 8th to 10th: Athletics (Away) September 12th to 14th: Yankees (Home) September 16th to 18th: Athletics (Home) September 19th to 21st: Rays (Away) September 23rd to 25th: Blue Jays (Away) September 26th to 27th: Tigers (Home) Strength of Schedule According to FanGraphs' Playoff Odds, the Red Sox’s strength of schedule ranks fifth (.502) among all American League teams. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees (.483) sport the second-easiest strength of schedule in baseball. First place goes to the Padres with .465. The Mariners (current holder of the third AL Wild Card spot) also have an advantage in their schedule. They play the Rays, Braves, Cardinals, Angels, Royals, Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers in September. I’ve heard some pundits float around the idea that the Rangers could make a late playoff push. I’m less bullish on them. Old friend Nathan Eovaldi (rotator cuff strain) is likely finished for the season, and Jacob deGrom’s second-half splits also aren’t too promising. Team W L WCGB Strength of Schedule Yankees 73 60 +1.5 0.483 Mariners 72 62 0.0 0.491 Rangers 68 67 4.5 0.496 Red Sox 74 60 +2.0 0.502 Royals 69 65 3.0 0.502 Read How to Determine Playoff Tiebreakers by Anthony Castrovince for more information on the following scenarios. Head-to-Head Record: What are the Red Sox’s records against current playoff teams? Opponent W L Remaining Games Tigers 0 3 3 Blue Jays 3 7 3 Yankees 8 2 3 Astros 4 2 0 Mariners 3 3 0 Royals 4 2 0 Rangers 3 4 0 Toronto triumphs over the Red Sox in any tiebreaker scenario. Fortunately, the Red Sox hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Yankees, Astros, Royals, and Rangers. They are 3-3 with the Mariners this season, and I’ll touch upon Seattle in the next section. If the Rangers made a late playoff push and their record was tied with the Red Sox at the end of the season, they would make the playoffs over the Red Sox. I’m not too worried about the Yankees. Come mid-September, in the worst-case scenario, even if the Yankees swept the Red Sox, the Red Sox would still hold the tiebreaker advantage. Intradivision Record: How did each team fare against their respective division? The Red Sox are currently ranked first in intradivision record among AL Wild Card Contenders. As long as they don’t face-plant in their nine remaining games vs the AL East in September, they will win this tiebreaker over the Mariners. Team W L PCT Red Sox 26 16 0.619 Mariners 27 18 0.600 Royals 22 20 0.524 Rangers 20 23 0.465 Yankees 17 22 0.436 Interdivision Record Let’s imagine the Mariners and the Red Sox finish the season with the same intradivision record. This tiebreaker would be determined based on their record against the remaining portion of the American League (combined record vs the Central and West). I’ve also included the Yankees for reference. Team W L PCT Yankees 30 16 0.652 Mariners 28 25 0.528 Red Sox 24 26 0.480 As you can see, the Red Sox are at a significant disadvantage here. They have 12 remaining games against the AL Central/West, Guardians (three games), Athletics (six games), and Tigers (three games), so there’s some opportunity for the Red Sox to gain ground on the Mariners in September. Since this tiebreaker scenario is less than optimal for the Red Sox, hopefully things don’t whittle down to it. 2025 MLB Postseason Schedule: Breaking down situational outcomes If the Red Sox finish with the first AL Wild Card spot, they would play the second AL Wild Card team, which is currently the Yankees. Given the team’s 8-2 record vs the Yankees this season, I’d love this scenario. They also would have the home-field advantage over the Yankees in a best-of-three series. If the Red Sox win the Wild Card series, they’d go on to play the winner of the first seed in the American League. This is currently the Blue Jays, but it could be the Tigers. Both teams are formidable opponents, and the Red Sox haven’t fared well against them this season. In conclusion, there’s still over a month of baseball to be played. As Red Sox fans, we know the tide can turn quickly. The optimist in me believes the team still has a chance at making a run for the division. After witnessing the team collapse every September over the past three years, it’d be nice for a change of scenery. September 2022: 12-14 September 2023: 8-19 September 2024: 11-15 September 2025: ? Be sure to follow along with the Red Sox’s playoff push right here on Talk Sox! View full article

Perhaps more than ever, speed is an essential component of contemporary baseball. This wasn’t the case 15 years ago. From 2010-19, league-wide stolen base totals steadily dropped. With the shortened pandemic season, they hit an all-time low, but in the following years, they started to make a comeback. The pitch clock made its MLB debut in the 2023 season. It shortened overall game lengths and quickened the pace of play, limiting pitchers to 15 seconds in between pitches with the bases empty and 18 seconds with runners on base. Baserunners are more likely to steal with less time in between pitches. Moreover, wider bases were implemented in 2023. Subsequently, stolen base totals hit a 15-year high with 3,503 in 2023 and 3,617 in 2024. Back in 2017, Statcast started publishing the sprint speed metric, which quantifies the foot speed of baserunners. The Sprint Speed Leaderboard provides the following description: Sprint speed by itself is a fun metric. However, it doesn’t measure how, if at all, a player’s speed contributes to a team’s offense. A player with a high sprint speed can reach base quickly and safely, but whether or not they capitalize on the opportunity to take an extra one from a fielder, should the opportunity arise, isn’t factored into the metric. Recently, I stumbled upon Statcast’s Extra Bases Taken Run Value Leaderboard. The leaderboard tracks the production of baserunners taking (not to be confused with stealing) extra bases from fielders and outfielders preventing extra bases from runners. For Red Sox fans, it’s no surprise that speedster Jarren Duran took 11 extra runs on the base paths from fielders between 2024-25, the second most in the league. When he gets on base, he wreaks havoc, and the team’s offense benefits. I created the following scatter plot, highlighting team fielding runs vs team runner runs. Teams fall under one of the four quadrants: Upper right-hand quadrant: shows which teams are efficient with fielding and advancing on the basepaths. Lower right-hand quadrant: shows which teams are more efficient advancing on the basepaths and less efficient with fielding. Upper left-hand quadrant: shows which teams are more efficient with fielding and less efficient with advancing on the basepaths. Lower left-hand quadrant: shows which teams are inefficient with fielding and advancing on basepaths. The Red Sox are situated in the most optimal group on the upper right-hand corner, meaning both their outfielders prevent baserunners from taking additional bases, and their baserunners take extra bases when possible. They’ve recorded five fielder runs (3rd) and five runner runs (5th). Again, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are two of the best outfield throwers in the league. Abreu ranks 11th (94.3 mph average throw) and Rafaela ranks 15th (93.4 mph average throw) on the arm strength leaderboard. Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar learned the hard way when Abreu gunned him down at third. By sprint speed numbers, the Red Sox aren’t the fastest overall; they sit 9th league-wide (27.6 ft/s). Yet, they’re aggressive and efficient on the basepaths. Red Sox third base coach Kyle Hudson has done an excellent job capitalizing on opportunities to take extra bases. Their success reflects strong preparation through advance scouting. For example, in early April, the Red Sox routed the Cardinals 18-7. The Cardinals rank last in the league with -9 fielding runs. Throughout the game, Red Sox runners kept advancing, knowing the Cardinals outfielders wouldn’t throw them out. What does this all mean from a 10,000-feet point of view? For starters, it’s something to review when formulating game strategy. The teams in the upper right-hand quadrant have recorded a net positive fielder runs and runner runs. The Guardians have recorded 14 fielder runs, by far the most in baseball this season. Their total is eight above the Cubs, who come in second with six. These teams' outfielders will likely prevent runners from advancing, and you don't have to look far on the Guardians (Stephen Kwan and Nolan Jones), Cubs (Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker), or the Rangers (Wyatt Langford and Adolis García) depth charts to see why. When facing these teams, advance scouts conducting their due diligence would advise against getting greedy on the base paths. Moving clockwise, the Brewers stand out in the lower right-hand quadrant; they rank 1st in runner runs with a five-run lead over the Tigers. Coincidentally, the Brewers flaunt the highest run differential in baseball. For fielder runs, they’re at -2. Superstar Jackson Chourio has been on the IL, so the Brewers' outfield defense is lagging. Looking at their other outfielders' Savant pages, Brandon Lockridge's arm strength grades above average in the 71st percentile. Jake Bauers’ defense hasn’t been the best over the past two seasons, and Isaac Collins’ range is elite (92nd percentile in OAA), but his arm strength (58th percentile) and arm value (21st percentile) are weak points. More likely than not, the Brewers, Tigers, and Diamondbacks will attempt to take the extra base, but their outfielders won’t be as successful in preventing opponents from advancing on the basepaths. The Mariners, White Sox, and Cardinals are outliers in the lower left-hand quadrant. Seeing the Mariners, who currently hold the third AL Wild Card spot, situated in the worst quadrant on the chart was shocking. Julio Rodríguez is an elite defender with a cannon of an arm, and he’s an efficient baserunner. With that being said, one elite defender can’t boost the entire outfield. Since he was on the Rays, Randy Arozarena has had a noodle of an arm. If an average to above-average runner is on third with one or two outs and the ball is hit to Arozarena in left field, savvy teams would advance the runner because they’re aware that he probably won’t throw the runner out at home. The Mariners' coaching staff has also faced significant turnover over the past year. Last August, they fired their manager, Scott Servais. Kristopher Negrón, the Mariners' third base coach, was appointed in November 2024. Since he’s a relatively new coach, that could explain their poor output in terms of runner runs. Finishing in the upper left-hand quadrant, you find teams that have solid outfielders, but their baserunners won’t advance on the basepaths. These teams are clustered together distinctly, so there aren’t any glaring anomalies. I’ll point out that the Yankees are notoriously slow and have posted -3 runner runs. My cat is faster than at least half the Yankees lineup. The Blue Jays are another slow AL East team. Their outfield can prevent runners from advancing, but they’re not likely to advance on the basepaths. How do these metrics compare to run differentials? MLB provides the following description for run differential: “A team's run differential is determined by subtracting the total number of runs (both earned and unearned) it has allowed from the number of runs it has scored.” The Brewers, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers have posted the highest run differentials this season. All of these teams, besides the Yankees, are situated in the upper right-hand quadrant of the chart. Simply put, the Yankees are outperforming their run differential. They’re a one-dimensional team. Most of their runs are driven home via home runs, not through small ball or contact hitting. When they hit home runs, they succeed, but otherwise they fall flat. Effective teams win games in various ways, not just through slugfests. Conversely, the Rockies, Nationals, and Angels have posted the lowest run differentials this season. These teams aren’t regarded for their pitching staffs, which have had difficult keeping opposing offenses off the board in 2025. To their credit, the Rockies and Orioles are plus fielding teams, but aren’t as efficient on the basepaths. For teams with negative runner runs, it’d be worth looking at the efficiency of their third base coaches. A team doesn’t need the fastest players to take an extra base when the opportunity arises. For example, the Phillies rank first (28.1 ft/s) in overall sprint speed, but have only recorded three runner runs this year. Despite their speed, they’re not as aggressive on the basepaths. Teams simply need to recognize the arm strength of the opposing outfielders when deciding whether to advance a runner. While the Brewers aren’t the flashiest team on paper, they hold the best record in baseball because of sound fundamentals and a strong coaching staff. Advanced scouting in baseball is not to be overlooked. With the expanded playoff format, every game matters for contending teams, and capitalizing on opportunities to add runs on the basepaths and prevent runs from scoring is crucial. Small advantages can tip the scales in a team’s favor. As we near the end of the regular season, teams that maximize every facet of the game will break apart from the rest of the crowd and have the best chance of making a deep run in October. View full article