Maddie Landis

The Boston Red Sox avoided arbitration hearings with their seven arbitration-eligible players this offseason. On Thursday, Triston Casas, Tanner Houck, Johan Oviedo, and Romy González each signed a one-year contract covering the 2026 season. @Alex Mayes and @Nick John previously wrote about Jarren Duran and Kutter Crawford’s deals, two of the team’s other arbitration-eligible players. Connor Wong also reached a $1.375 million agreement in November. body { font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, sans-serif; padding: 20px; background-color: #f5f5f5; } table { border-collapse: collapse; background-color: white; box-shadow: 0 2px 8px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); border-radius: 8px; overflow: hidden; } thead { background-color: #0d2b56; color: white; } th { padding: 14px 16px; text-align: center; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px; } th:first-child { text-align: left; } td { padding: 12px 16px; border-bottom: 1px solid #e0e0e0; font-size: 15px; text-align: center; } td:first-child { text-align: left; font-weight: 500; } tbody tr:last-child td { border-bottom: none; } tbody tr:hover { background-color: #f8f9fa; } Player Position Service Time (Years) Salary Tanner Houck SP 4.100 $4.15 million Johan Oviedo SP 4.078 $1.55 million Romy González UTIL 3.083 $1.60 million Triston Casas 1B 3.031 $1.61 million I’m not too shocked at any of these numbers. Tanner Houck and Johan Oviedo are in their second year of arbitration. Houck’s salary increased from $3.95 million in 2025 to $4.15 million in 2026, though he’s unlikely to see playing time as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Depending on how Johan Oviedo fares with the Red Sox, his contract could end up looking like a bargain. Romy González is a competent bench piece with positional versatility. Triston Casas, who was injured for much of 2025, is expected to return at some point during the 2026 season. You often hear claims online that players don’t want to sign with the Red Sox because their front office treats players poorly. It’s a gray area for the team, which has traded away franchise cornerstones like Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers. But judging solely by the arbitration process, the Red Sox have treated players fairly by consistently avoiding hearings in recent years. The last time the organization went to a hearing was six years ago, when Eduardo Rodríguez sought $8.675 million in salary, but lost his case and was awarded $8.3 million. Before that, Mookie Betts beat the team in 2018, earning $10.5 million, the highest salary the Red Sox have awarded through an arbitration hearing. Betts holds records for the highest salaries for a player in their second ($20 million in 2019) and third year of arbitration ($27 million in 2020), both of which were settled without a hearing. With these four salaries settled, the Red Sox are roughly $4 million under the first CBT threshold of $244 million. Should free agent third baseman Alex Bregman accept the team’s reportedly aggressive offer, it would push the team well beyond it. View full article

Baseball has become an international sport. In 2025, internationally born players made up 27.8% of players on Opening Day rosters across Major League Baseball. The Dominican Republic led the way with 100 players, followed by Venezuela with 63 players. You can read more about the situation in Venezuela and its impact on Major League Baseball here. The Red Sox have four Venezuelan players in the organization: the new kid on the block, first baseman Willson Contreras, catcher Carlos Narváez, right fielder Wilyer Abreu, and shortstop prospect Franklin Arias. Beat writer Marcos Grunfeld reported that the Red Sox are “monitoring the situation” in Venezuela and have confirmed that their players, families, and staff in the country are safe. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe shared an updated list of players attending Fenway Fest this past Saturday. Of the team’s four Venezuelan players, all except Contreras are set to appear. Contreras’s absence caught my attention, especially given the current geopolitical situation. But on Monday morning, Contreras posted an Instagram Story of Cerro El Casupo, a park in Valencia, Venezuela (which I found after a quick reverse Google Image search), so he appears to be doing well. For reference, Valencia is approximately 103.77 miles away from Caracas, the Venezuelan capital and target of U.S. strikes on January 3. Safe travels to players (and any family joining them) traveling to Boston this weekend, and to Contreras ahead of spring training. View full article

Alex and Maddie discuss the Willson Contreras trade and the impact it may have on Triston Casas. They go through the remaining free agent options for both second and third base before moving on to the starting pitching market. They close the episode discussing possible trade scenarios and give their takes on whether the Red Sox will sign either Tatsuya Imai or Kazuma Okamoto. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

For baseball fans, we’re fortunate to have a plethora of projection models to review. There’s Jared Cross’ Steamer, Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (Marcel), Nate Silver’s Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), Brian Cartwright’s Oliver, and Dan Szymborski’s Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS). Each projection system has its own merits — one isn’t necessarily better than another. Are they 100% accurate? No, which is perfectly fine. Predicting the future is tough. However, they are fun to look at, and reviewing Szymborski’s projections helps the offseason progress a little faster! Just before Christmas, he dropped the Red Sox’s 2026 ZiPS projection. How does the model think the team will fare next year? Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and the Rest of the Rotation Is ZiPS secretly rooting for the Red Sox? It loves Garrett Crochet (don’t we all?), who is projected to generate 5.3 WAR, the second most among pitchers, trailing Tarik Skubal (6.0 WAR). Sonny Gray is currently viewed as the team’s number two starter. Compared to last season’s gap between Crochet and the rest of the rotation, ZiPS is high on Gray, projecting a 112 ERA+ across 154.0 IP. It’s also optimistic about Brayan Bello (104 ERA+). @Alex Mayes and I have talked heavily about Bello’s future on the Talk Sox Podcast. The team’s starting pitching success depends on Brayan Bello, the bridge to the front and back of the rotation. Despite notching three full seasons under his belt, the right-hander's future remains uncertain Has he reached his full ceiling? Can he live up to his true potential? Moreover, what is his true potential? Could he be traded? Between Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Kyle Harrison, the team has more than enough options to fill at the backend of the rotation. Regardless of the depth behind Bello, the rotation’s ceiling and stability hinges on whether he can emerge as a reliable anchor. The Big, Beautiful Bullpen Meanwhile, the bullpen looks great, aside from Zack Kelly. Aroldis Chapman is expected to have another successful season (143 ERA+, the team’s second-best mark, and a 2.74 FIP). After a strong season as a full-time reliever, ZiPS is keen on Garrett Whitlock, projecting a 132 ERA+ and 3.05 FIP. Holes at 3B, 2B, and Catcher It’s almost 2026. Following the Rafael Devers trade, Alex Bregman’s injury, and his eventual opt-out come the offseason, I feel like a broken record saying the Red Sox need infield depth. Fortunately, the Willson Contreras trade addressed depth at first base. However, for the rest of the infield, help is required. ZiPS views Marcelo Mayer as a third baseman, rather than a second baseman (where he played 57 innings in 2025). Excluding first base, Mayer can play wherever he’s needed in the infield. Ceddanne Rafaela and Romy González are projected to net the most playing time at second. Free agents Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Kazuma Okamoto are unsigned and could help fill holes at second or third, so Rafaela can man center field on a full-time basis. Bench players like Romy González (projected .266/.307/.426, 102 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) and David Hamilton (projected .228/.298/.359, 83 0PS+, 1.8 WAR) are valuable contributors to the team, but when injuries forced them into full-time roles, their overall performance suffered. The team must add an everyday player at either second or third and deploy the González and Hamilton as depth when needed, rather than expect them to carry the workloads of starters. The catching group is projected to be around average. ZiPS is pessimistic about Carlos Narváez, projecting him to slash .224/.307/.362 with an 87 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR across 418 plate appearances. It expects Connor Wong’s bat to bounce back, though, slashing .248/.309/.386 with a 93 OPS+ and 0.6 WAR over 351 plate appearances. Maybe this is why the Red Sox have reportedly checked in on free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto? After an emotionally turbulent season that featured the team’s first playoff appearance since 2021, the Red Sox are looking to build upon their success. ZiPS highlights areas of need in the roster, but overall is optimistic about the team’s future trajectory: Now, it’s up to Craig Breslow and the front office to fill the roster’s outstanding needs. View full article

For a contending team, it wouldn’t have been pragmatic for the Boston Red Sox to go into the 2026 season without additional depth at first base, a position that has been a glaring weakness over the past three years. Moreover, first base seemed to be the obvious place to acquire a desperately-needed power bat. Following the acquisition of Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals, Triston Casas faces an uncertain path to playing time in 2026. Let me start with this: I’m a vocal Triston Casas fan. In college, I took a break from following the Red Sox closely as my studies (and extracurricular activities) took precedence. After graduation, I started watching the team again, largely drawn back to baseball by Casas’ rookie season. As someone who’s also been labeled as quirky throughout my whole life, it was refreshing to see an MLB player with a similar personality on my favorite team. Growing up during the boring era of baseball personalities, Casas was like a shot of espresso. I love that Casas is unapologetically himself, from his adherence to routines (I also eat strawberries daily) to his love for sushi, and most importantly, his ability to demolish the ball. After finishing third in the 2023 American League Rookie of the Year voting, it looked like Triston Casas was going to be the Red Sox’s middle-of-the-order power bat for the future. In 2024, a rib cartilage tear sidelined him for most of the season. In 2025, a torn patellar tendon abruptly cut his season short. Due to Casas’ extensive injury history, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow was reluctant to name him as the team’s starting first baseman in 2026. Year PA BB% K% AVG OPS wOBA wRC+ WAR 2023 502 13.9% 25.1% .263 .856 .367 131 1.8 2024 243 12.3% 31.7% .241 .800 .342 120 0.6 2025 112 9.8% 24.1% .182 .580 .256 56 -0.6 Casas’ value comes from his bat, which peaked during his rookie season. His defense at first has been subpar, posting -9 Outs Above Average (OAA) in his 2023 rookie season, -2 OAA in 2024, and -3 OAA in 2025. On the other hand, Contreras is a plus defender at first, recording +6 OAA in his first full season manning the position. Back in June, Casas said he aims to be ready by Opening Day. The addition of Contreras alleviates the pressure on Casas to rush his recovery and return Notably, he has three remaining minor league options and could start the season in Triple-A Worcester. When fully healthy, Casas, as a left-handed bat, could work out some platoon with Contreras between designated hitter and first base. Figuring out what to do with Masataka Yoshida, the team’s designated hitter, is a bridge to cross later in this possible future. If Casas obliterates the ball in spring training, releasing Yoshida could be an option; the former NPB phenom has never provided much value defensively, and he’s a square peg in a round hole as a designated hitter. He profiles more as a contact hitter than the power bat that teams want from the position. Considering the uncertainty surrounding Casas’ health and questions about his performance returning from consecutive substantial injuries, however, cutting ties with Yoshida now would be premature. The Red Sox finally have depth at first base, a position that has only accumulated 1.4 fWAR for the team since 2022 (24th in baseball). Contreras himself brings his own history of injuries, albeit most of them were related to catching. Trading or releasing Casas when his value is at an all-time low would be short-sighted. At just 26 years old next season (his birthday is in early January), he remains controllable and won’t reach arbitration until after 2026. Take it from Breslow, who summed up the team’s approach: “(It’s an) opportunity to keep everybody fresh, to keep everybody involved and engaged at the same time. As we sit here in late December with Triston coming off of a season-ending injury, to get too far ahead of ourselves probably doesn’t make a ton of sense. To have right-handed impact, left-handed impact, both guys that can hit the ball out of the park, it’s going to make us better.” For now, patience is the best strategy. The Red Sox can afford to let the situation unfold. View full article

The 2022-26 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires on December 1, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. For anyone unfamiliar with the sprawling 442-page contract, the CBA outlines how Major League Baseball operates. It addresses spring training allowances, revenue-sharing guidelines, minimum salaries, deferred contracts, and more. Tony Clark, the Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), and MLB commissioner Robert Manfred have both indicated that they anticipate a lockout after the current CBA expires. Manfred even went as far as to state: Competitive parity in MLB and the potential implementation of a salary cap, which the MLBPA vehemently opposes, are already being discussed. Other major topics include the international draft, integrity protections with the rise of gambling, and combating service time manipulation. Manfred has been gearing up for a potential lockout. In 2023, he launched the Commissioner’s Ambassador Program (CAP) to “represent the game at MLB events and support the league's international growth, among other responsibilities”. This past season, Manfred toured MLB clubhouses, sometimes bringing CAP members. Historically, the MLBPA has been the bridge between players and the commissioner’s office. CAP however, is leapfrogging union reps and player agents to directly advise players under the guidance of the commissioner’s office, fueling further tension. *Picture of the chart taken during a recent visit to the Baseball Hall of Fame The Los Angeles Dodgers’ back-to-back World Series titles, achieved with top-three payrolls in both seasons, have intensified discussions about a salary cap. Their spending frenzy last offseason led to a record-breaking $582.25 million luxury tax payroll in 2025. While World Series runner-ups are often afterthoughts in the history books, the Dodgers’ victories came against other high-payroll teams, the New York Yankees in 2024 ($389.17 million) and the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025 ($288.60 million). For once, I agree with Bryce Harper. Whining about the Dodgers’ spending is not worth the attention. The Dodgers are a well-oiled machine. Besides consistently signing quality free agents, they have one of, if not the largest, analytics departments across all professional sports. The other 29 teams in the league could beef up their analytics staff and allocate more revenue towards their payroll, but they choose not to. Why should the Dodgers be held liable for the Pirates allocating only 32.4% ($105.67 million) of their revenue towards their payroll in 2025? It’s absolutely asinine for the rest of the league to bemoan the willingness of the Dodgers’ ownership to invest in the team and not match their moves. Every team had the financial resources to offer Shohei Ohtani a 10-year $700 million contract with its mind-boggling deferrals. Any organization could have signed Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, to a long-term deal, despite concerns about his injury history. These moves, and many more, have consistently worked in the Dodgers' favor. Luck certainly plays a role in the Dodgers' player acquisitions, but the decisive factor in their success is their willingness to act when other teams won’t. Sources: Forbes, Cots Contracts In an attempt to mitigate disparity, the CBA penalizes excessive spenders with the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). If a team's 40-man roster payroll exceeds the set yearly CBT threshold, it is taxed on the overages, with rates increasing for consecutive seasons of overspending. This past year, the CBT threshold was $241 million, and in 2026, it increases to $244 million. The CBA lays out MLB’s revenue-sharing model. Teams contribute to a shared pool, determined by a fixed percentage of net local revenue (the club’s local revenue minus actual stadium expenses), which is then distributed evenly to all 30 clubs. The exact percentage has fluctuated over the years, and it’s currently set at 48%. Jake McKibbin from Talk Sox’s sister site, Brewer Fanatic, notes MLB’s current model has two glaring loopholes: Some teams have managed to avoid paying what they should owe; and The revenues shared are then distributed equally, rather than on a meritocratic basis. That disincentivizes some teams from trying to win and improve the on-field product. Many teams have partial ownership of local/regional sports networks. As long as its accounting adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles, it has flexibility in how profits are allocated. McKibbin further outlines the loophole, stating: “While revenue from local TV rights is subject to sharing across the league, profits generated through ownership stakes in the broadcasting networks are not. Instead, they are treated as a subsidiary/investment earning.” The current landscape of the free-agent market highlights how teams are preparing for the lockout. The Angels signed former player Kurt Suzuki as a manager to an unusual one-year deal. Shifting from previous years, four players accepted qualifying offers. Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty surprisingly opted in with their respective teams instead of hitting free agency. While teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, and Blue Jays continue to spend aggressively to contend, the Cubs and Red Sox have each adopted different approaches to roster construction amid the uncertainty of a potential lockout. Both organizations reflect the character of their cities and the legacy of their longstanding franchises. Theo Epstein shepherded the Red Sox out of their 86-year championship drought and the Cubs out of their 108-year championship drought. Their respective owners, the Ricketts Family and Fenway Sports Group, rejected proposals to relocate each team from the two oldest ballparks in baseball. The Cubs invested nearly $1 billion to revamp the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley Field, while the $1.6 billion Fenway Corners development project is underway for the Red Sox. Craig Counsell (five-year, $40 million contract signed in November 2023) and Alex Cora (three-year, $21.75 million contract covering 2025-27) are two of the sport’s most respected and highest-paid managers. In recent years, they have struggled to advance to the postseason and make a deep playoff run. There’s also a history of personnel flow between the organizations’ front offices. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is a disciple of the Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, who, in turn, was mentored by Theo Epstein. Hoyer (who could pass as Anderson Cooper's brother) held the following roles with the Red Sox: Assistant to the General Manager (2002), Assistant General Manager (2005-09), Co-General Manager (2005-06). Ryan Otero, the Cubs’ Director of Pitching, was recently hired as a special assistant to Breslow. Despite netting $584 million in revenue, the third-highest in baseball, the Cubs’ 39.5% payroll-to-revenue ratio ranked 25th. The Cubs have mostly steered clear of long-term deals for frontline talent in recent years. Ten years ago, Hoyer, then general manager under Theo Epstein, oversaw the Cubs’ largest contract ever: Jayson Heyward’s eight-year, $184-million deal. Excluding Dansby Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal, most of the Cubs' acquisitions since have been geared towards short-term deals; think Shota Imanaga’s original four-year, $53 million deal, signed in 2024, and Seiya Suzuki’s five-year, $85 million deal, signed in 2022. Homegrown players Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ were signed to three-year extensions in 2024. This past offseason, the Cubs offered Alex Bregman a four-year, $115 million contract that looked paltry in comparison to Detroit’s six-year, $171.5 million offer and the Astros’ six-year, $156 million offer. Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120 million contract. In Hoyer’s defense, he does his best with a limited budget imposed by ownership. He’s not afraid to jump the gun and make seismic deals, as evidenced by the Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker. Most alarming is that numerous key Cubs players enter free agency after the 2027 season, including left fielder Ian Happ, designated hitter/outfielder Seiya Suzuki, starter Jameson Taillon, second baseman Nico Hoerner, and catcher Carson Kelly. Looking beyond 2027, the Cubs’ list of free agents snowballs with each passing year. Entering the 2027 season, shortstop Dansby Swanson and reliever Phil Maton are currently the only two Cubs players with guaranteed salaries. With the Cubs set to lose a large portion of their roster after next year and the limited spending, fans have suggested the team is “clean books” strategy to prepare for the impending lockout. The Cubs have developed a solid core of position players without spending heavily on free-agent talent. Cot’s Contracts projects that they can spend $46.12 million before hitting the first CB threshold. Their rotation needs an upgrade, and starters Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King are potential targets. Extensions for homegrown talent, e.g. Pete Crow-Armstrong, are another avenue to build long-term roster stability. Moreover, the organization has been successful at recruiting Japanese talent to the team. Signing flamethrower Tatsuya Imai to a contract would assuage the “clean books” talks. The Red Sox allocated 43.8% ($251.47 million) of their previous year’s revenue ($574 million, the fourth-highest total in the league) towards their 2025 payroll. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is a former protege of Hoyer. Like the Cubs, the Red Sox tend to avoid long-term free-agent contracts. They’re one of the four remaining teams that haven’t signed a free agent to a major-league contract this offseason. The difference between the Cubs and the Red Sox’s roster construction is that the Red Sox have extended their homegrown players beyond 2027: Bryan Bello: 6 years, $55 million (2024-29), 2030 club option Kristian Campbell: 8 years, $60 million (2025-32), 2033-34 club options Ceddanne Rafaela: 8 years, $50 million (2024-31), 2032 club option Garrett Crochet: 6 years, $170 million (2026-31) Roman Anthony: 8 years, $130 million (2026-33), 2034 club option Teams do their best to accurately value the risk of free-agent contracts. Execution is equally as important as evaluation, and Breslow’s primary area of weakness has been acquiring free agents to supplement the roster. Looking at FanGraphs’ “We Tried Tracker” from last year, the Red Sox whiffed on almost all of their free-agent targets. Who was the most “notable” free agent that they acquired during the 2024-25 offseason, besides Bregman? Walker Buehler? Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations, warned, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent”. Post-Winter Meetings, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, two of the available biggest bats, are off the table. While Schwarber always seemed primed to return to the Phillies, the Cubs and Red Sox reportedly met with Alonso. The latter had concerns with Alonso’s age (he just turned 31), defense, and baserunning. Sometimes, you have to bite the bullet and take on the risk of a free agent contract, future projections be damned. Before the 2018 season, the Red Sox signed the 30-year-old J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110 million deal. He generated 13.3 total fWAR through his tenure with the Red Sox. Roughly three-quarters of his WAR output came in 2018 (5.9) and 2019 (4.0). Towards the end of his contract, his performance declined, but it wasn’t a complete wash. With that being said, Martinez was, arguably, the linchpin of the 2018 team’s World Series run. The Red Sox’s homegrown core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi desperately needed a power bat to supplement the lineup. Martinez was that solution. Other teams weren’t willing to bite, and the Red Sox took the risk of signing him. Would the current Red Sox front office sign Martinez? I think not. A club with a substantial record of failed free-agent signings gains nothing by creating excuses about feigned concerns with a player’s profile or adding an extra year for a marginal sum when it sits at the top of the league in revenue. I’m not saying the Red Sox should necessarily overpay for free-agent contracts that don’t align with their current needs (take the Padres hoarding infielders on long-term contracts). Likewise, signing Kyle Tucker would just exacerbate the team’s outfield logjam. Still, adherence to strict rationalism won’t bolster their roster and doesn’t match the realities of the free-agent market. As the offseason progresses, MLB organizations will continue to navigate the implications of the new collective bargaining agreement. The Red Sox have committed to a young core; whether they choose to supplement the roster further is up for question. The Cubs seemingly have built their roster around the lockout, with significant money coming off the books after the 2026 season. At the end of the day, the uncertainty surrounding the future payroll should not dictate roster-building decision-making. MLB free agency remains a free market, and teams must stay committed to putting the best possible roster on the field. Both the Cubs and Red Sox’s futures are bright, but failing to make significant upgrades through free agency will make it more challenging for each team to compete if or when they reach the playoffs. View full article

Sean McAdam of MassLive indicated the Red Sox are willing to spend beyond the first CBT threshold ($244 million) in 2026, “which would translate to them absorbing a modest financial loss. But with anything beyond that, there’s a reluctance to incur bigger deficits”. Cot’s Contracts estimates that the team’s 2026 payroll is currently $27.13 million below the first CBT threshold. Claiming that the Red Sox, who generated the fourth-highest revenue in baseball and have a dedicated national fanbase, are in financial distress is a tough pill to swallow. The Red Sox own majority stakes (80%) in New England Sports Network (NESN) and have one of the more lucrative local TV deals in the sport, further allowing them to mitigate revenue sharing protocols. Last week, when asked if the New York Yankees operated at a profit in 2025, owner Hal Steinbrenner responded, “I don’t want to get into. But that’s not a fair statement or an accurate statement.” The timing of McAdam's statement about the Red Sox and Steinbrenner’s comments isn’t a coincidence; if anything, it’s posturing ahead of the next CBA negotiations. Yes, free-agent contracts carry risk. Players typically enter free agency between the ages of 30-32, sometimes with their best years behind them. Teams pay for future performance with the uncertainty of injury risks and potential performance decline. However, spending money for the sake of spending limits roster and payroll flexibility for future needs. Sustainable competitiveness requires balancing homegrown talent with select free agent and trade acquisitions. The Red Sox's young core of Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Garrett Crochet are signed to long-term extensions. They just traded for Sonny Gray (and Johan Oviedo), which helps strengthen their rotation, but the team still has room to upgrade in the lineup and pitching staff. The AL East is currently in the midst of an arms race. After almost winning the World Series, the Blue Jays are eager to carry their momentum into next season, signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year $210 million contract. Despite injuries to key players, the Red Sox fielded a competitive team in 2025. They ended their three-year playoff drought but were overmatched by the Yankees in the AL Wild Card series, a team that spent $139 million more in luxury tax payroll. This disparity was evident in their pitching rotations. While the Yankees were led by aces Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, the Red Sox only had Garrett Crochet and had to turn to Brayan Bello and newcomer Connelly Early in Games 2 and 3. Granted, it’s only December, and top free agent targets like Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Schwarber remain on the market. The Red Sox’s future is bright, but failing to make significant upgrades through free agency will make it more challenging for the team to compete should they reach the playoffs. View full article

Alex and Maddie celebrate the one-year anniversary of the Talk Sox Podcast by analyzing why Cole Ragans makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. They then talk through whether the team is overvaluing Jarren Duran and discuss whether he should be traded over Wilyer Abreu. Finally, they talk through the latest news, connecting the team to Ketel Marte. Thanks to everyone who has made this last year a success here on the Talk Sox Podcast! Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

Late Tuesday morning, Jeff Passan reported that the Red Sox were trading pitchers Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts in exchange for Sonny Gray and $20 million in cash. Gray’s base 2026 salary is $31 million and includes a $10 million mutual buyout option, so his total salary minus the $20 million in cash is $21 million. Gray, a November Scorpio, turned 36 this month. The former Vanderbilt Commodore has played for five different teams (Athletics: 2013-17, Yankees: 2017-18, Reds: 2019-21, Twins: 2022-23, and Cardinals: 2024-25) in the majors throughout his 13-year career. The Red Sox mark his sixth team, meaning he’s played for 20% of the league. Is age merely a number? In his age-35 season, Gray’s 2025 performance (21.7% K-BB% [seventh among qualified pitchers], 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, and 3.6 fWAR) was significantly better than any Red Sox pitcher not named Garrett Crochet. Let’s dive into Gray’s arsenal. Gray’s pitch mix graph might be one of the most intensive that I’ve stumbled upon on Baseball Savant. With the plethora of colors, curves, and abrupt breaks, it resembles something akin to a Japanese subway station map. The biggest takeaway from the graph is that Gray has adapted consistently throughout his career. You can see how Gray has dropped the use of his four-seamer and sinker, while leaning more on his breaking pitches (curveball and sweeper) in his mid-thirties. Four-Seamer (22.3%) Gray’s four-seamer has never been a dominant pitch. It hit an all-time low in velocity (91.7 mph) and strikeout rate (4.6%) this past season. With only 10.5 inches (ranked 422 out of 438) of induced vertical break, the pitch doesn’t generate much rise. Unsurprisingly, Gray’s four-seamer yielded a .376 BA and .584 SLG, which were higher than his .360 xBA and .573 xSLG. The strongest tools in Gray’s arsenal are his breaking pitches, so he aligns with the Red Sox pitching lab’s paradigm of tossing more breaking balls and limiting fastball usage. Sweeper (19.3%) Gray’s sweeper is his bread and butter. Among qualified pitchers, the pitch posted the highest strikeout rate (51.2%), the fourth-highest whiff rate (42.3%), and the fifth-highest run value (7). With 42.0 inches of vertical drop and 14.9 inches of horizontal break, Gray’s sweeper has a more distinct sinking effect. If you want a primer on the dominance of Gray’s sweeper, check out this thread on Twitter. Curveball (18.3%) Gray recorded a 35.4% put-away rate with his curveball, the highest in baseball. Compared to the previous season (13.9% pitch rate), he threw the pitch more often, and its usage reached an all-time high in September. Opposing batters struggled against the pitch (150 BA, .156 xBA, .173 wOBA, and .182 xWOBA). Sinker (17.4%) Gray’s sinker saw a decline this season. Last year, it dropped from a +5 run value and 105 Stuff+ to 1 and 97 mark, respectively. He yielded 25 home runs: six on his four-seamer, five on his sweeper, three on his curveball, three on his changeup, one on his cutter, and seven on his sinker, the most of any pitch. Opposing batters started making more contact on Gray’s sinker, and the pitch saw a significant jump in slugging percentage from .385 to .477. The Rest of Gray’s Arsenal (Cutter: 12.6%, Changeup: 8.4%, Slider: 1.6%, and Slow Curve: 0.1%) Pitch Run Value Stuff+ wOBA xwOBA K% Whiff% PutAway% Hard-Hit% Cutter -1 91 .424 .380 4.4% 23.3% 30.0% 45.0% Changeup -3 80 .464 .436 7.5% 25.6% 27.3% 30.6% Slider 1 123 .215 .211 30.0% 38.1% 42.9% 28.6% Gray’s cutter and changeup posted a wOBA higher than their xwOBA, indicating he’s dealt with poor luck on those pitches. His cutter and changeup’s putaway rates are solid, so he’s productive at retiring batters with those pitches, but their low strikeout rates indicate he hasn’t been able to get ahead of batters frequently; Gray’s 26.7% two-strike percentage ranked 403 among the 436 qualified pitchers. When he was behind in the count this past season, his batted ball rate was alarmingly high (52.9%), and his strikeout rate was low (5.9%). When he was ahead in the account, his batted ball rate plummeted to 2.6% and his strikeout rate increased to 53.2%. Simply put, Gray’s biggest issue is getting to a two-strike count. On a positive note, his first-strike percentage reached an all-time high of 64.7% in 2025. He’s trending in the right direction and may only need to incorporate some pitch sequencing adjustments to put himself in more advantageous counts. Despite Gray’s slider posting the highest Stuff+ (123) in his arsenal and a strong strikeout rate, he rarely threw the pitch. He seems to have a love-hate relationship with the pitch, dropping it after 2019, bringing it back for the 2021-22 seasons, shelving it again in 2023, and reintroducing it this year. Its velocity dipped from 83.6 mph in 2021 to 83.2 mph before matching its 2019 speed in 2025. If he leans on the pitch more consistently next season, he should get ahead in the count more often. We’re at the end of Gray’s arsenal! He only threw his slow curveball twice in 2025, so it’s more of a flex than a go-to tool in his mix. The Red Sox did not extend a $22.05 million qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito, allowing Gray to step into Giolito’s role as a mid-rotation starter. Gray has substantially more swing-and-miss stuff than Giolito and doesn’t come with the baggage of injury issues, which bolsters the Red Sox’s pitching staff. Most importantly, the veteran adds some stability behind Garrett Crochet in the rotation. He has been a reliable starter over the past two seasons, tossing 166.1 innings in 2024 and 180.2 in 2025. Cot’s Contracts estimates the Red Sox's 2026 payroll at $216.86 million, leaving $27.13 million to spend before reaching the $244 million luxury tax threshold. Their payroll was $8.72 million over the $241 million threshold in 2025, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re willing to exceed the threshold again next season. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow remarked on the trade, “We felt like there was an opportunity to upgrade our rotation in 2026, and we did that. It’s early in the offseason. There are still opportunities that I anticipate materializing. Exactly what they look like, I’m not sure. But we’re not going to close off any chance to make the team better.” The Sonny Gray trade marks the first move of the Red Sox’s offseason, and based on Breslow’s comments, they’re poised to pursue additional roster upgrades in the coming weeks and months. View full article

Last week, the Baltimore Orioles received outfielder Taylor Ward in exchange for right-handed starter Grayson Rodriguez. Ward is owed $13.7 million next year before he hits free agency in 2027. At age 26, Rodriguez is under team control through the 2029 season. His career has been riddled with injuries—shoulder and lat issues sidelined his playing time in 2024. This past season, he didn’t pitch, and in August, he underwent debridement surgery on his right elbow. On the other hand, Ward belted a career high of 35 home runs in 2025 (fifth in the AL). With the ability to hit the ball to all parts of the field, Ward should fare well playing 81 games in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards. On Nov. 24, Jeff Passan reported that the Mets were trading outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for second baseman Marcus Semien. Entering his age-33 season, Nimmo is owed $102.5 million through 2030, while Semien, who turned 35 in September, is owed $72 million through 2028. The Mets are sending $5 million to help offset the salary difference. The longest-tenured member of the Mets’ core, Nimmo had a stellar season at the plate in 2025, recording 114 wRC+, 25 home runs, and a career-high 50.2% hard-hit rate. However, his defensive metrics have dwindled with age. After primarily starting in center field throughout his career, Nimmo has shifted to left field. His defensive regression correlates with the decline in his sprint speed. Three years ago, Nimmo ranked in the 84th percentile for sprint speed (28.6 ft/s), and his Outs Above Average (OAA) was in the 91st percentile (six). Since then, both metrics dropped significantly. In 2025, his sprint speed fell to the 46th percentile (27.3 ft/s), while his OAA decreased to the 42nd percentile (one). Marcus Semien profiles as the exact opposite of Brandon Nimmo. Semien was sidelined with a Lisfranc sprain and left foot injury in 2025. Over the past couple of seasons, his bat has shown a steady decline: 2023: 128 wRC+ (during Texas’ World Series run) 2024: 101 wRC+ 2025: 89 wRC+ While Semien has maintained solid plate discipline, he isn’t a substantial threat at the plate anymore. Yet, unlike Nimmo, his defense has remained elite. He won his second Gold Glove in 2025 (7 OAA). Semien is a threat on the basepaths and has maintained an elite sprint speed through his mid-30s. This past season, the Mets ranked last in the league for sprint speed, so Semien provides a much-needed boost to the team’s baserunning. At second base, the Mets had a revolving door of second basemen with Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, and Luisangel Acuña manning the position at various points in the season. Semien shores up the defense of the right side of the Mets’ infield, and a change of scenery could help rejuvenate his bat. In the outfield, Juan Soto is locked in right for the foreseeable future. Center field is a question mark. The Mets avoided arbitration with Tyrone Taylor, a plus defender in center field with elite speed. Internally, they could look to call up prospects Carson Benge and/or Jett Williams to fill in at center field during the 2026 season. McNeil also provides some positional versatility and can play in the outfield. Looking at the Steamer’s 2026 projections for the top free-agent outfielders, the outfield market is weak. Outside of Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, these players don’t move the needle greatly for contending teams. Given that outfielders are prime extension candidates (Julio Rodríguez, Jackson Chourio, Corbin Carroll, Jackson Merrill, and Roman Anthony), the free-agent outfield pool will continue to narrow. Player Age Position BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OPS wOBA wRC+ WAR Kyle Tucker 29 RF 13.6% 15.2% .215 .278 .268 .853 .366 136 3.7 Mike Yastrzemski 36 RF 10.9% 23.3% .180 .269 .229 .726 .316 102 1.0 Cody Bellinger 30 CF 8.2% 15.0% .184 .282 .267 .781 .336 115 2.8 Cedric Mullins 31 CF 8.9% 22.8% .156 .274 .230 .689 .302 92 1.2 Rob Refsnyder 35 LF 10.4% 26.1% .161 .315 .248 .743 .325 108 0.4 Taylor Ward 32 LF 10.3% 24.1% .192 .286 .243 .764 .325 114 2.2 Brandon Nimmo 33 LF 9.7% 22.1% .172 .301 .255 .763 .333 115 2.5 Jarren Duran 29 LF 8.1% 23.5% .178 .319 .257 .760 .329 107 2.4 Wilyer Abreu 26 RF 11.1% 24.5% .203 .295 .249 .786 .338 113 1.7 The Red Sox are currently flush with outfield talent. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu stand out as potential trade candidates. Projection-wise, both are younger and offer more long-term value than the 2025-26 free agent outfielders not named Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker. Although Duran took a step backwards in 2025, he is an above-average outfielder under team control through 2028. His skillset relies on his elite speed (29.1 ft/s, 91st percentile), which typically regresses with age. Considering that Duran prides himself on his insane workout routines and taking care of his body, his speed won't diminish overnight. Abreu is a two-time Gold Glove winner in just his first two full major league seasons. This past season, he slugged 22 home runs, the second-most on the Red Sox, and has four remaining years of control. While his ceiling has been a topic of debate, he’s proven that he can provide Gold Glove defense and has the potential to reach 30 home runs with his power. An ideal trade partner would have a surplus of controllable starting pitcher depth and need an upgrade in the outfield. Contending teams in the bottom third of the league for outfielder OAA include the Phillies, Rays, Braves, Mets, and Reds. The Phillies are far from a perfect match, the Rays are an intra-division team, and the Braves could potentially align with the Red Sox's need for a power bat at first (Matt Olson, anyone?). Again, similar to the Red Sox, the Braves and Mets are in search of a top-of-the-rotation starter. The Mets have an intriguing crop of pitching prospects (Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong), but if you're trading Duran/Abreu, you would prefer receiving a proven major league pitcher. On another note, Justin Willard, the Red Sox's former Director of Pitching, was hired by the Mets as their new pitching coach. Willard was a pivotal piece in overhauling the Red Sox's pitching program. The impact of his departure is unknown and could make the Red Sox more averse to taking on pitching projects moving forward. Following the Taylor Ward and Brandon Nimmo trades, the hot stove is just starting to heat up. Jarren Duran and/or Wilyer Abreu stand to provide a higher return than Grayson Rodriguez or Marcus Semien, and the front office must make a decisive decision to sell high on one or both players as it pursues the necessary pitching upgrades to make a World Series push. View full article

Maddie and Alex run through the roster changes as the Red Sox prepare for the Rule 5 draft. They then discuss Kristian Campbell's new position in left field and turn that into a discussion on Jarren Duran trade packages. They wrap up the episode by running through the Pete Alonso rumors and discussing other potential free-agent fits. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

The 2025 Detroit Tigers season was an emotional rollercoaster. Heading into the All-Star Break, the team held a 59-38 record, the best in baseball, and a 12-game division lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Following an epic collapse (28-37), they finished the season second in the division behind the Guardians. It’s difficult to imagine where the Tigers would be without their ace Tarik Skubal. Over the past three seasons, the team went 38-13 in the southpaw's starts. Skubal won the AL pitching Triple Crown in 2024, leading AL pitchers with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA, and 228 strikeouts, and unanimously won the AL Cy Young Award. His dominance continued in 2025, and he won his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award, finishing with 13 wins, a 2.21 ERA, and 241 strikeouts. Skubal had Tommy John surgery in 2017, causing him to miss part of the 2016 season and the entirety of the 2017 season at Seattle University. Although Skubal’s velocity (95 mph fastball) was promising, concerns over his injury led him to fall in the 2018 MLB Draft, with the Tigers selecting him in the ninth round (255th overall). After his first two seasons in the Tigers’ farm system, a December 2020 Baseball America scouting report projected Skubal’s “ceiling of at least a mid-rotation starter”. Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery in August 2022. He returned to pitching just before the 2023 All-Star Break, with the velocity on almost all of his pitches increasing. The following season, he tinkered with his pitch sequencing, reducing the use of his slider (14.9%) and fastball (33.2%), while throwing his changeup (27.0%) and sinker (20.6%) more often. Following the Tigers' departure from the 2025 postseason, Jon Heyman reported that the Tigers and Skubal are over $250 million apart in extension negotiations, sparking speculation that Skubal could be dealt this offseason. At the recent GM meetings, Craig Breslow stated the Red Sox were looking to add a frontline starter to put behind Garrett Crochet and a power bat. What about a pitcher who could slot in front of Garrett Crochet? Let’s imagine a Red Sox trade for Tarik Skubal. To start, it’s worth examining the Tigers’ positional needs. Like Alex Cora, Tigers skipper A.J. Hinch values defensive versatility and moved players around the field during the season. The chart below shows the Tigers’ and Red Sox’s 2025 positional splits, highlighting the top contributor at each position by fWAR ranking among qualified players. 2025 Red Sox vs Tigers Positional Split Rankings Red Sox Position Tigers 12th Catcher 3rd 18th 1B 13th 25th 2B 8th 7th 3B 32nd 17th SS 22nd 8th LF 12th 3rd CF 32nd 9th RF 11th 12th Rotation 7th 2nd Bullpen 24th First-time Gold Glove winner catcher Dillon Dingler (4.6 fWAR) is under control through 2030. First baseman Spencer Torkelson (2.3 fWAR) had a strong season and enters free agency in 2029. Second base is more unsettled; Gleyber Torres (2.6 fWAR) signed a $15 million, one-year deal and is now a free agent. The Red Sox utilized a revolving door at second base during the season, so the team doesn’t have a surplus to assist Detroit. Going into the 2026 season, there is uncertainty at third for both teams. The Tigers aggressively pursued Alex Bregman last offseason, offering a six-year, $171.5 million contract, but he signed a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox. Now that Bregman has opted out, the Tigers are rumored to be gearing up for another run for him. Utility man Zack McKinstry (1.7 fWAR) generated the most production at shortstop. In the outfield, Riley Greene (2.3 fWAR) primarily manned left field. Center field stands out as a major area for upgrade, as Tigers center fielders ranked 28th overall in baseball. Though he’s primarily regarded as a shortstop, Javier Báez’s 0.7 fWAR led the eight players who appeared in center field in 2025. Wenceel Pérez (1.9 fWAR) and Kerry Carpenter (0.9 fWAR) were a productive platoon pair in right field, similar to Wilyer Abreu and Rob Refsnyder. Pérez, a defensive wizard, produced four Outs Above Average, while Carpenter dominated right-handed pitching (122 wRC+ split). Trade Scenario Gauging a potential Skubal trade is tough. Skubal enters free agency after the 2026 season, leaving him with one year of team control. A somewhat comparable trade occurred in February 2024, when the Orioles acquired then 29-year-old Corbin Burnes, who also had one year of remaining control. Though Burnes is a quality pitcher, he doesn’t reach Skubal’s ceiling and was a couple of years removed from his 2021 Cy Young Award season. Mock Trade: Boston receives: LHP Tarik Skubal Detroit receives: LHP Connelly Early/Payton Tolle, OF Jarren Duran, and SS Franklin Arias (Baseball America’s No. 48 prospect) Connelly Early or Payton Tolle help offset the loss of Skubal. Both have high ceilings and experience pitching in the majors. While Duran's performance took a step back in 2025, his 3.9 fWAR ranked 13th in baseball among position players. He’s posted seven OAA in center field over the past two seasons, and would be a significant upgrade for the Tigers. Arias is a well-regarded right-handed shortstop, ranked fourth in the Red Sox’s system and 48th overall (Baseball America). Sox Prospects projects his major league debut in mid-2027, which coincides with the expiration of McKinstry’s contract. Outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia could be swapped for Arias, though adding another outfielder to the trade would be somewhat redundant. Fellow shortstop Marcelo Mayer could factor into a Skubal trade, though his trade value is diminished after his season ended prematurely with a wrist injury. Since Skubal is a Scott Boras client, he is unlikely to sign an extension with his new team. Adding another layer of complexity to a Skubal trade is the potential for a lockout. MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on December 1, 2026. If/when a lockout occurs, Skubal will likely be a free agent. The 2021 Major League Baseball lockout lasted 99 days, spanning from December 2, 2021, to March 10, 2022. Four days before the start of the lockout, 11 players, including Javier Báez, Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien, signed a total of $1.9 billion of contracts. The final day set a record of $1.3 billion in new contracts. During lockouts, free agents aren’t allowed to negotiate with teams, but once the work stoppage ends, a flurry of free agent signings typically ensues. After the 2021 lockout ended, several notable players quickly signed contracts: 3/18/22: Kris Bryant signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Rockies 3/18/22: Freddie Freeman signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Dodgers 3/22/22: Carlos Correa signed a three-year $105.3 million contract with the Twins 3/23/22: Trevor Story signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox Alternatively, Sandy Alcantara is a controllable No. 2 starter in the trade market that wouldn’t cost as much as Skubal. Meanwhile, this year’s free agent starting pitching market is thin, “headlined” by Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen. Under Craig Breslow, free-agent pitching additions have been an area of weakness. FanGraphs’ 2024 “We Tried” Tracker shows the Red Sox pursued starters Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Shane Bieber, and Max Fried, but ultimately fell short. Looking ahead, waiting to pursue Skubal in free agency would be a cleaner path for the Red Sox. By the time Skubal enters free agency, the team will have a general manager to oversee free agent contract negotiations. Moreover, the Red Sox are one of the few organizations that could afford Skubal’s projected $400 million contract without sacrificing a substantial package of young talent. View full article

The Boston Red Sox’s rotation lacks a No. 2 starter. There are plenty of in-house candidates (Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison) to fill in at the back of the rotation, along with pitchers returning from injuries. Hunter Dobbins (torn ACL), Kutter Crawford (mysterious wrist injury), and Patrick Sandoval (torn UCL) are expected to pitch again at some point in the 2026 season. However, you can’t rely on recovering pitchers to immediately contribute like they would at full health. Effectively, the Red Sox need a pitcher to cement their rotation and fill the gap between Garrett Crochet and their backend starters. Fortunately, the team possesses the financial resources to allocate towards free-agent starters (or perhaps an expensive trade target). Which pitchers should they go after? Dylan Cease (30, 3.4 fWAR) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 6-years $31.67 M $187.0 M Tim Britton 6-years $29.0 M $174.0 M Matthew Pouliot 7-years $30.0 M $210.0 M 2025 Stats IP ERA K-BB% HardHit% GB% FIP xFIP WAR 168.0 4.55 19.9% 37.4% 36.6% 3.56 3.56 3.4 Dylan Cease’s durability is his most valuable asset. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched at least 150 innings, and the Red Sox’s rotation needs consistency behind Crochet. His slider is an authoritative pitch. In 2024, it posted the highest run value (25) among all pitch types. Cease’s 11.52 strikeouts per nine innings was the best in the majors this year. He's attached to a qualifying offer, so it'll be interesting to see where his market leads. In terms of complementing Crochet, it's hard to imagine Boston doing better than a right-hander with his raw stuff. Ranger Suárez (30, 4.0 fWAR) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 6-years $27.33 M $164.0 M Tim Britton 6-years $25.5 M $153.0 M Matthew Pouliot 5-years $27.0 M $135.0 M 2025 Stats IP ERA K-BB% HardHit% GB% FIP xFIP WAR 157.1 3.20 17.4% 31.1% 46.8% 3.21 3.61 4.0 Ranger Suárez has been a cornerstone of the Phillies’ rotation over the past two seasons, but Zach Wheeler’s sheer dominance and the rise of Cristopher Sanchez pushed him down to the No. 3 spot. On any other team, he’d likely profile as a No. 2 starter. Read more about Ranger’s potential fit with the Red Sox in @Jordan Leandre's write-up. Zac Gallen (30, 1.1 fWAR) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 5-years $27.0 M $135.0 M Tim Britton 2-years $21.0 M $42.0 M Matthew Pouliot 2-years $22.5 M $45.0 M 2025 Stats IP ERA K-BB% HardHit% GB% FIP xFIP WAR 192.0 4.83 13.4% 41.0% 43.6% 4.50 4.12 1.1 Going into the 2025 season, it seemed like Zac Gallen was primed to cash in on a large contract. Three years ago, Gallen finished third in the NL Cy Young race and has remained a consistent Cy Young candidate throughout his career. Unfortunately, for most of the 2025 season, Gallen appeared to be a shell of his former self. His performance was, as my fellow Gen Z-ers say, “mid”. With a 5.40 ERA in the first half, his potential trade value took a hit, and he remained with the Diamondbacks through the conclusion of the trade deadline. Gallen’s fastball is the staple of his arsenal. He’s thrown the pitch 47% of the time throughout his career. The pitch is the bridge to his secondaries (knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, slider, and sinker). When he paints his fastball on the outer edges of the strike zone, he creates a deadly combo with his secondaries. Between March and July, he struggled to command his fastball, and its velocity dropped (93.3 mph). Once the dog days of summer passed, he found better control and improved his velocity (94.0 mph). By the conclusion of the second half, he posted a 3.97 ERA. Like Dylan Cease, Gallen’s durability is a major asset, throwing an average of 183.5 innings per season since 2022. Given his subpar performance in his walk year, Gallen won’t fetch a lengthy, long-term contract. If Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab can help him rebound, he’s a high-ceiling reclamation project. Tatsuya Imai (28) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 7-years $22.0 M $154.0 M Tim Britton 8-years $23.75 M $190.0 M 2025 Stats IP ERA K-BB% HardHit% GB% FIP xFIP 163.2 1.92 20.7% 16.5 48.3% 2.01 2.26 Freshly minted 2025 World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto has proved that smaller Japanese starters can succeed in MLB. Imai (5’11”) is the youngest free-agent starter this offseason, and I’d expect the Red Sox to be interested in him. For a deeper look into Imai, check out my piece from October. Improving the rotation is a priority for the Red Sox’s front office this offseason. A free-agent acquisition is a start (no pun intended), though this year's free agency class is weaker compared to previous seasons. That said, the organization boasts a strong pitching development program, and has a history of turning even questionable signings into consistent contributors (see: Aroldis Chapman). Through whatever means, expect the Sox to enter the 2026 season with another starter between Crochet and Bello in the pecking order. View full article