Red Sox Video
Let it be known: I have nothing against the state of Minnesota. Sure, Minnesotans incorrectly refer to casseroles as “hot dishes”, they seem to be obsessed with hockey, and their accent sounds Canadian, but none of that is their fault.
One thing is certain: the Minnesota Twins, who, as their name suggests, are located in Minnesota, have a valuable trade piece that could help the Red Sox make a deep playoff run. That trade piece is the Twins’ starting pitcher Joe Ryan. The Twins hold significant influence at the 2025 trade deadline. Whether they choose to be buyers or sellers is up for question. If they are sellers, they have the opportunity to be within playoff contention next year, but they have to thread the needle carefully. A three-team trade proposal involving the Phillies, Twins, and Red Sox, with Joe Ryan headlining the deal, would help each team.
Back in May, FanGraphs projected the Twins held a 68.7% chance of making the playoffs. The team was riding high on a 13-game winning streak, and it looked like the Twins were a formidable opponent for the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. Since then, their season has fallen apart, and the team currently is at a 14.8% chance of making the playoffs. Shockingly, they’re part of a small group of four teams that have won ten games in a row this season, a list that also includes the Red Sox.
Various organizational components can be blamed for the Twins' meltdown. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have offset their rotation. Over the past year, the Pohlad family has flirted with the notion of selling the Twins. Offsetting some payroll at the deadline would help them sell the team and stock up their farm system to appeal to a potential buyer. They probably can’t shed Carlos Correa’s albatross six-year $200 million contract, but they can move other pieces and gain valuable prospects. The organization has also indicated that they’re willing to listen to trades for players on expiring contracts.
Phillies receive OF Jarren Duran (28, 1.7 fWAR) and RP Jhoan Duran (27, 1.2 fWAR)
I’ll start with my least favorite team in this proposal, the Phillies. Since 2022, the Phillies' outfield ranks 23rd in fWAR. To be honest, I’m impressed that the Phillies made the World Series in 2022, the NLCS in 2023, and the NLDS in 2024 with such a mediocre outfield. Four seasons into his five-year, $100 million contract, Phillies right fielder Nick Castellanos has accumulated a total of 1.2 fWAR. The team uses an inefficient platoon of Johan Rojas (.232/.287/.303, 63 wRC+) and Brandon Marsh (.244/.318/.341, 85 wRC+) in left/center field.
The Phillies' outfield woes were on full display during Wednesday night’s marathon versus the Red Sox. After fouling off four pitches from Red Sox reliever Brennan Bernardino (the team’s eighth pitcher of the game), former Twins outfielder Max Kepler (.203/.300/.366, 85 wRC+) struck out looking to end the game in the 11th inning. Kepler signed a $10 million, one-year deal with the Phillies in the offseason.
The Red Sox have five very competent outfielders on their major league roster and throughout their farm system. As much as it pains me to write this, Jarren Duran is the odd man out. Baseball is a business, and if trading from a position of strength helps address a roster weakness, the Red Sox must seriously consider moving Duran at the trade deadline. The speedy outfielder’s swing would fare well in Philly. Per Statcast’s Expected Home Runs by Park, Duran would have hit 26 home runs last year and 12 this season if all of them were hit at Citizens Bank Park. He also seemed to be enjoying himself in Philly earlier this week.
This trade proposal features not one, but two Durans—both with first names that start with “J” and end in “n”. Jhoan Duran (1.94 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% batted ball rate, and 2.40 FIP across 45.1 innings pitched) would strengthen the Phillies' shaky bullpen (ranked 15th via FanGraphs).
Twins receive OF Jhostynxon Garcia (22, ETA: early 2026), SS/3B Franklin Arias (19, ETA: mid-2027), SP Payton Tolle (ETA: mid-2026), SP Mick Abel (23, ETA: 2025), and 2B Aroon Escobar (20, ETA: 2028)
The Twins are reportedly seeking “at least two top-100-caliber prospects” for Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The team currently has a strong farm system—Baseball America listed the Twins with the eighth-best farm system at the beginning of the season. Here, the Twins would receive a haul of five top-100 prospects.
- SP Payton Tolle: #54
- SS/3B Franklin Arias: #72
- SP Mick Abel: #93
- 2B Aroon Escobar: #97
- OF Jhostynxon Garcia: #100
Payton Tolle is a dominant left-handed pitching prospect, currently playing in Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs. He was a second-round pick in the 2024 draft. Tolle’s fastball reaches a maximum of 98 mph with a whooping 66.7% whiff rate. Some reports suggest Tolle could skip Triple-A à la lefty flamethrowers Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale.
In recent years, the Twins have failed to develop quality infielders. Utility infielder Brooks Lee’s defensive metrics (-5 OAA, -9 DRS) are abysmal, and he doesn’t contribute much offensively (.249/.288/.367, 81 wRC+). Royce Lewis is slightly more defensively sound (1 OAA, 2 DRS), but his bat (.237/.302/.385, 92 wRC+) is on par with Lee's.
Shortstop/third baseman prospect Franklin Arias might hold the key to reshaping the Twins' infield. Arias holds a .288/.339/.396 slash line, 113 wRC in the minors. Although his Major League debut is still some time away, he earned the 2024 Florida Complex League MVP award and was selected as a Florida Complex League All-Star. Keith Law recently ranked Arias as the ninth-best prospect in baseball. Arias has made significant strides with his bat speed and has the potential to develop into a right-handed, defensively sound power hitter.
While the Twins probably won’t make the postseason in 2025, their future looks bright, with outfield prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez expected to debut next early year. Byron Buxton is under contract until 2028. Buxton’s turnaround this season is encouraging, but his extensive injury history raises concerns about his ability to contribute over the rest of his contract. If Jenkins and Rodriguez don't immediately succeed in the majors, Jhostynxon Garcia is a high-impact prospect on the cusp of reaching the majors that provides the Twins with additional outfield depth.
By trading Mick Abel to the Twins, the Phillies immediately help offset the loss of Joe Ryan (who I’ll get to in a moment). The Phillies have a strong pitching rotation, and Andrew Painter’s call-up is imminent, making Abel an expendable resource. Earlier this season, Abel had a small cup of coffee in the majors. He initially looked strong in his major league debut, going six scoreless innings (albeit against the lowly Pirates). After getting knocked around by the Cubs, Mets, and Padres, Abel was sent down to Triple-A. He’s posted a 1.83 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 27.0% strikeout rate in the minors this year. Abel’s curveball is nasty, generating a 38.6% whiff rate, and his fastball velocity ranks in the 77th percentile (96.0 mph). Abel’s biggest issue is his control. At age 23, Abel is young, and his underlying metrics indicate he still has time to develop into an elite starter
The Phillies' contention window is rapidly closing, likely after the 2026 season, and they’re desperate to make a deep run in October. Second baseman Aroon Escobar (.282/.366/.438, 125 wRC+), who shot up in prospect rankings this year, is the cherry on top to woo the Twins.
Red Sox Receive SP Joe Ryan (29, 2.9 fWAR), C Christian Vázquez (34, 0.0 fWAR), and RP Griffin Jax (30, 1.4 fWAR)
Joe Ryan immediately slots in as the Red Sox’s No. 2 starter. He’s pitching at a career-best rate in 2025, posting a 2.63 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 29.2% strikeout rate, and 3.13 FIP across 116.1 innings. Ryan is eligible for his second year of arbitration in the offseason. Given his strong performance this year, he should net way more than this year's salary of $3 million. There is a surplus of caliber free-agent starters in the 2025-26 offseason, and the Twins would net more of a return trading Ryan at the deadline versus in the offseason. Trading away Payton Tolle, Jhostynxon Garcia, and Franklin Arias is a tough pill to swallow. However, the Red Sox are one of the few teams that possess the capital to swing a trade for Joe Ryan. Since Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu are the outfield of the future, Garcia is blocked from making his major league debut. When the time comes, Marcelo Mayer will likely be holding Arias down in the minors. The time is now for the team to sell some, but not all, of their prospects.
Early in the season, Connor Wong (.144/.228/.144, 5 wRC+) was booted from the Red Sox’s starting catcher role by Carlos Narváez. It’s almost August, and Wong has only recorded one RBI. As a 25-year-old rookie, Carlos Narváez (.266/.339/.439m 113 wRC+) has stepped into the team’s starting catcher role flawlessly. Catcher is such a demanding position, and the worst thing the Red Sox can do is run Narváez to the ground by overworking him. Vázquez (.190/.254/.272, 48 wRC+) fills the team’s backup catcher role, and he isn’t hitting worse than Wong. At age 34, he’s still a serviceable defender (2 DRS, 90th percentile blocks above average). Vázquez would be a veteran presence on a young Red Sox team and a mentor for Narváez, plus the Twins would offload the remainder of his contract via trade. Griffin Jax (4.09 ERA, 36.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% batted ball rate, and 2.07 FIP across 44.0 innings) alleviates stress in the Red Sox’s bullpen, which infamously disintegrates after July. Looking towards the future, Jax is a potential reliever-turned-starter candidate for Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab.
This trade proposal addresses each team’s roster needs. The Twins replenish their farm system with impact pitchers and position players, and they shed some payroll without selling any major pieces from their core. It alleviates the Red Sox’s outfield logjam, adds a controllable starting pitcher to their rotation and an impact bullpen piece, and helps the Phillies bolster their bullpen and outfield.
What do you think of this proposal?
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