Red Sox Week in Review: Nothing Can Stop This Team's Momentum... Unless Rafael Devers Is Traded

PERFECTLY PUT....As soon as things start going better, now this

I think we will find the need for Devers is not as great as you might think.  He's a DH so he can only contribute on offense.  His offense while off to a nice start was going to regress to the mean as the season progressed.  We were very fortunate to give the regression to SF!!!

Let's see what moves Breslow makes to improve the pitching and offense with an extra $31 Million a year he has available.  I hope he gets pitching first but I wouldn't be shocked to see another trade that brings in another all-star quality hitter.  I'd like to see a deal that brings us Cal Raleigh.  It's not likely but it would be great to have a Raleigh/Narvaez combination behind the plate. 

7 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

His offense while off to a nice start was going to regress to the mean as the season progressed.

Umm, he's actually batting below his lifetime average, has an OPS slightly above where he finished last year and is just entering his prime.

Weird take.

4 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Umm, he's actually batting below his lifetime average, has an OPS slightly above where he finished last year and is just entering his prime.

Weird take.

Interesting, when I looked it up on Baseball Reference I found these facts:

BA in 2025 .272 2024 .272 2023 and Career .279 thanks to the early years

OPS in 2025 .905 (2nd highest to 2019) 2024 .871 2023 .851 and Career .859

As an international player his prime years start earlier because of NO COLLEGE.

His two best seasons to date are 2019 (six years ago) and 2022 (3 years ago)

Based on comps of Pujols and Miggy, his prime years should end after the 2028 season, maybe he'll hang on to 2029, but it doesn't appear likely.  Pujols fell off after his 32 season and Miggy after his 33 season.  Since they are way better hitters than Devers, I expected his 31 season to be his last productive year.  All three players started in their teens and became starters in their early 20s.  Look up the dramatic falloffs of both superstars.  It is a clearly delineated break in skill level for their hitting.  Devers will be 31 in 2028.

His huge contract runs through 2033 so for 1/2 the contract SF will be totally under water.

Now consider Devers actual season so far.  He's hitting .087 after his first hit on April 2nd.  He raises his average to .278 by the 10th of April.  Bregman gets hurt on May 23rd with Devers hitting .299.  His average drops to .272 without Bregman's protection.  Devers added 200 points to his average in May and he had 10 of 13 games with a hit in June.  I believe those numbers will be better than what he puts up in SF.  

Weird take?  Nope.  Just the facts.  His numbers despite the two set-backs are still ahead of his normal pace.

On 6/17/2025 at 1:27 PM, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Interesting, when I looked it up on Baseball Reference I found these facts:

BA in 2025 .272 2024 .272 2023 and Career .279 thanks to the early years

OPS in 2025 .905 (2nd highest to 2019) 2024 .871 2023 .851 and Career .859

As an international player his prime years start earlier because of NO COLLEGE.

His two best seasons to date are 2019 (six years ago) and 2022 (3 years ago)

Based on comps of Pujols and Miggy, his prime years should end after the 2028 season, maybe he'll hang on to 2029, but it doesn't appear likely.  Pujols fell off after his 32 season and Miggy after his 33 season.  Since they are way better hitters than Devers, I expected his 31 season to be his last productive year.  All three players started in their teens and became starters in their early 20s.  Look up the dramatic falloffs of both superstars.  It is a clearly delineated break in skill level for their hitting.  Devers will be 31 in 2028.

His huge contract runs through 2033 so for 1/2 the contract SF will be totally under water.

Now consider Devers actual season so far.  He's hitting .087 after his first hit on April 2nd.  He raises his average to .278 by the 10th of April.  Bregman gets hurt on May 23rd with Devers hitting .299.  His average drops to .272 without Bregman's protection.  Devers added 200 points to his average in May and he had 10 of 13 games with a hit in June.  I believe those numbers will be better than what he puts up in SF.  

Weird take?  Nope.  Just the facts.  His numbers despite the two set-backs are still ahead of his normal pace.

Lol, his contract and what miggy and pujols did have zero to do with your silly statement about "regression to the mean".

The fact is that he's a young player in his prime putting up numbers similar to his career numbers.

Smh......

On 6/17/2025 at 1:40 PM, moonslav59 said:

For a player just entering peak prime, nobody should expect any kind of "regression." I'm never sure what TYPM means, but I have yet to agree with anything he has ever said. It seems impossible that a person exists that holds the exact opposite view that I hold on every single issue or point made, but so far, such a person exists.

If regress to his career OPS of .849 was what was meant, then yes, some sort of drop off would happen. If regress means to a more reasonable age 24-28 OPS or .877, then it would hardly be a regression, at all.

So far, Devers top OPS season was 2019 at .916, but some context is needed. He was just 22, then, and the league was different. Here is a look at his OPS+ since 2019. I see no reason to expect "regression," and I actually see the opposite, of course, and expected a career-like season in 2025, just as he was on pace for having in 2024, pre injury.

132 in '19 (was actually only his 5th best OPS+)

107 in '20 (COVID)

134 in '21 (slight improvement)

141 in '22 (natural towards prime growth)

126 in '23 (the only real blip on the expected age bell curve)

142 in '24 (back to the expected upside curve, and would have been higher w/o injury)

153 in '25 (seems just about in line with a normal bell curve)

 

The strange part is that when he is called out on how wrong he is then he doubles down and goes off on weird tangents to try to prove his point.

4 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Lol, his contract and what miggy and pujols did have zero to do with your silly statement about "regression to the mean".

The fact is that he's a young player in his prime putting up numbers similar to his career numbers.

Smh......

It's called a "generous" comp because Devers is no Pujols or Miggy but it represents what other Latin big-boned players who started in their teens as an international prospect have done historically.  There are no guarantees that Devers will last through his 31 season or his 36 season but considering his slightly above average hitting career compared to two Superstars, I think it's safe to say the odds are good that he won't be as good and he won't last as long.

Also, Devers isn't young he's middle aged for a player that started in his teens.  He's in his 15th season overall and his 9th MLB season.  That's not young.

17 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

It's called a "generous" comp because Devers is no Pujols or Miggy but it represents what other Latin big-boned players who started in their teens as an international prospect have done historically.  There are no guarantees that Devers will last through his 31 season or his 36 season but considering his slightly above average hitting career compared to two Superstars, I think it's safe to say the odds are good that he won't be as good and he won't last as long.

Also, Devers isn't young he's middle aged for a player that started in his teens.  He's in his 15th season overall and his 9th MLB season.  That's not young.

Again, none of that has anything to do with your silly statement regarding "regression to the mean"

Smh.......