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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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Yandy Diaz may be a better fit over the three guys in the article. He's a righty stick with oppo pop, and a batting champ who doesn't strike out much - exactly what will make this line-up better. Naylor will cost the most in prospect talent, because Breslow will also acquire one of Arizona's starters on expiring contracts: Kelly or Gallen. This trade should be engineered asap, so the Sox will be fortified for the upcoming stretch vs. good MLB teams. The Snakes can wait until the deadline for the best package, so if Boston is serious about contending this summer, Brez has to overpay to make it happen sooner, before the thin rotation is exposed. This one-stop shopping is the best scenario, because Joe Ryan alone -- if he is actually available -- is an overpay probably not worth investing in... unless the front office really believes the Young Sox are already ready to go deep into October this year. Again, IF the Twins are dealing Ryan, we need him now, not the first week of August. And Red Sox fans need to understand that any chance of him meeting the Sox at Wrigley Field this weekend will require a Crochet-level 4-for-1 trade that waves bye-bye to another quartet of legit prospects.
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- 2025 trade deadline
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Anthony might be, too, according to most evaluators. He's not Betts in the field or on the bases, but his low K-rate and high Hard Hit % are the closest we've seen in the batter's box since Mookie made the majors. Roman's early combination of plate discipline and barreling his pitch have already outperformed the last two Red Sox players to reach #1 overall prospect status: Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi.
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The mad scientists in their batting laboratory created Campbellstein -- they can just build a new one. Almost forgot: three cheers for the R & D department!
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I wouldn't trade Anthony for Skenes straight up. Teams simply cannot afford to swap a top-rated position player who can impact every game for at least the next six years for a guy who might play once a week during that time -- if that pitcher doesn't suffer one season-ending elbow surgery or several shorter IL stints that are now typical of virtually every modern arm. Anthony may be the Red Sox best offensive player by the end of this season, and for years to come. His plate discipline and hard hit rate are already a combination that promises stardom... Mayer looks like a future Gold Glover somewhere with decent pop; The Password could supply power but have holes in his swing; Campbell may figure it out in the box, but never find a position on the field -- but of all them, Roman looks like the real deal... in every sample size he's had as a pro so far.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
There's no i in team, but there is me in time. -
And condensation is the part of the water cycle that forms clouds. I know I'm off a few letters, but most of the arguments here get cloudy eventually...
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I did, I'm on your side. It's ludicrous to think any intelligent front office baseball exec wanted Mayer demoted instead of Hamilton. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He was last winter, too, and two years before that. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Shouldn't it say Shouldn't? I watched every televised Spring Training game and often commented how much better the Sox looked when Mayer was in the game. I also said several times that Mayer outplayed Campbell in Florida, and definitely in the field. But there were posters who stood by management's decision to give second base to KC, because he supposedly earned the job last season as Minor League Player of the Year -- and let's face it, that award was because of his bat (which also happened to swing righty). The quiet part out loud: in the Spring, when Campbell got sporadic starts in the outfield, management lauded his versatility... but how many fans were thinking the Sox were actually just trying to find a way to keep his bat in the line-up? Maybe they still are... -
Nope -- we've been waiting for rehabs and retreads to step in all decade. If this Red Sox team is going for it, they need to acquire talented reinforcements. One of the reasons Devers was traded may have been because he told the CBO to do his job and get a first basemen -- but what people forget is that it wasn't the first time Raffy spouted off. He also said Breslow should do his job and get pitching before last summer's deadline. Somehow, I don't think Devers meant a few has-been relievers at the last minute, either...
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Yoshida is a better contact hitter because his K-rate is only 13.1 in his two plus MLB seasons. But his Hard Hit Percentage is low at 39.8%. Contrast with 2025 Duran's 23.5 K-rate/46.6 HH% and Abreu's 23.6 K-rate/46.3 HH%. Then there is '25 Romy: 22.1 K-rate/60.9 HH% (thanks to Cora match-ups). Also '25 Anthony, who now faces everyone: 21.8 K-rate/56.4 HH%... Other '25 combos: Refsnyder: 26.6 K-rate/53.3 HH%; Mayer 29.8 K-rate/52.5 HH%; Bregman: 18.4 K-rate/47.9 HH%; Ceddanne: 19.4 K-rate/47.5 HH%; Story 27.9 K-rate/47.5 HH%; Narvaez 23.5 K-rate/42.6 HH%; Campbell 27.4 K-rate/42.3 HH%; Toro 15.5 K-rate/32.9 HH%. Devers as a '25 Red Sox: 31.2 K-rate/54.4 HH%... so in the heart of the order, the team replaced its biggest whiffer with a top prospect who actually has a higher Hard Hit percentage.
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Breslow's strategy to stockpile pitching in the draft could now make Tolle expendable as a major trade chip... if he's not called up to Boston soon as a power arm option for the bullpen. The Red Sox selected 15 pitchers out of their 21 picks, and apparently the scouting department relied on Disneyland analytics: Must be at least 6'5" to ride to Fenway. If all 15 drafted pitchers stood on each other's shoulders they might not be as high as the John Hancock Building -- but they'd tower over the new John Henry Building (as usual, under construction).
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You're right -- I was thinking Gallen would cost more in free agency because of his age and three years getting Cy Young votes. But this season Kelly is better, and the Red Sox need someone who is good now.
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Kelly is better than a #5; only five NL starters have more IP, and only six have a better WHIP.
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Merrill Kelly should be available. He's 36 and a free agent this winter, so shouldn't cost a ton. A lot of mileage on his arm, but once again leads the NL in starts this season (tied with Gallen, also soon to be free, but at age 29 will cost more prospects). Kelly has a 2.9 WAR, and can pitch in October: two years ago he made four postseason starts with a 2.25 ERA.
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Unless you're convinced Buehler or Houck or Harrison or Sandoval bounce back for two months of regular rotation turns, the Sox need to acquire more than a #5 starter. A 2013 Jake Peavy won't do it for a team that needs to make the playoffs in '25. As for trading Clarke or -- no, Tolle! -- some fans are wondering if Breslow's top two draft picks yesterday make it easier for him to part with a top arm for a MLB starter who is actually good this year...
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Sox need a 2018 Eovaldi, not a 2017 Pomeranz or a 2019 Kashner. Brez could settle for a 2023 Jordan Montgomery... not a '24 Montgomery. Nothing is guaranteed, except a disappointed clubhouse if no one is added...
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I've said it before about OPS, but when a guy is hot with the bat then I could care less if he walks, because way more good things are produced by the "S" than the "O" -- -- especially with an offense that struggles with just making contact, like in much of the first half. The average Slugging Percentage in the AL is .403, and the Red Sox now have a team S% of .433, second to the New York Judges; the Sox have 13 batters above average, NY has 9. Top four on the current roster: Romy .582, Bregman .546, Abreu .496, Ceddanne .483.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Getting right down to it: Boston has had winning records at the All-Star Break in every season this decade -- and then had miserable second halves (except '21, when the Sox still had a worse record than the first half). Red Sox Record @ All-Star Break '21 55-36... post Break: 37 more wins; finish 2nd '22 48-45... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST '23 48-43... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST '24 53-43... post Break: 28 more wins, finish 3rd '25 53-45 -- WHAT CAN BRESLOW DO TO CHANGE THIS SECOND HALF CULTURE? It all comes down to pitching, and fragile starting rotations that invariably lead to bullpen burnout. Can the Big Three remain consistent and healthy? Can we count on Buehler to find it, or Houck or Harrison to step in and replicate what Dobbins did in the first half? All are possible... none are likely. One thing is certain: the deadline deals this decade that just added an extra reliever or two who were once good or serviceable won't be enough. And no more Paxtons for the rotation -- if Brez is going to add a starter, it has to be a sturdy arm that can start a postseason game. We don't have to break up the MLB roster, that cohesive energetic group on a 10-game streak. A deep farm system stockpiled with position player prospects was made for this moment... -
First half MVP's for the Sox.
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Chapman. He might not pitch in the All-Star Game, but he's going. Getting selected for the squad is an honor. Plus, we all enjoy end-of-the-game win celebrations, but there's also something to be said for those who don't pile up. When Chappy Ks the last batter in a W, he just stands still and looks... the King of the Hill is cool. -
I'm ok with the comp, since modern athletes are usually bigger/stronger/faster. But let me tell you, my son who is 5'5 had his picture taken next to Rafaela last winter, and Ceddanne was only a few inches taller (never believe team press guides because they always exaggerate height; Dick Fitts isn't 6-3, either). As for Mays, I read a biography where his manager, Leo Durocher, said he was sure Willie could have been an All-Star shortstop if he wanted. Apparently, he took infield before every game and was just as good on the dirt as he was on the grass. The Giants move to San Francisco really robbed Mays of his righty pull power, because the wind was always blowing in from left field at Candlestick Park. It's a testament to Willie's talents that he altered his swing to the opposite field in his prime and still came close to the all-time home run record.
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The outside world is only where we wait until the next baseball game... ... but I defer to anyone who can sneak a foam pad into the dugout and sleep on the bench until the next first pitch.
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