Hugh2

I mean, the #4 #5 starter on most teams isn't that great.

30 mlb teams?

No but he has more team control

I don’t think Montgomery is going. But I can see a slight upgrade from Gonzalez in the piece. if Casas/Houck/The big 4/ Montgomery are involved I want no part of it.

What BTV doesn’t tell us is how CHW values these guys internally. If they like Abreu….they like Abreu. Who knows

Perhaps, I built that trade around the rumor that they like Abreu as a headliner. I'm not going to get hung up who the 2nd or 3rd guy in that trade will be.

BTV accepts. Hey, this all plays into the fact that we don't know how teams internally evaluate players. Wilyer put up a 3.1 WAR as pretty much a platoon player and that's insane. If they think he can mature into a guy who can hit LHP better they think he's a potential superstar. Then again, the report that the White Sox would accept Wilyer as the headliner could be erroneous but if we take it at face value that's a fair trade.

Aren't they already an AAA team?

WIlyer Abreu/Franklin Arias/Wikelman Gonzelz for Garret Crochet. Then go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott. 2025 world series champions.

The problem with this post is you're taking todays top 10(ish) and then just taking the top prospects in other years. in 2013 Betts was ranked 10th and Vasz 13th? The guy who is ranked 23rd in our system right now could be the future #1 and a perennial all star for all we know. You almost have to consider perceived value at that time because that's the value they had at that point. Moncada wasn't a great prospect in hindsight but the reality was he gave us an ACE so that was his value. It's a tough experiment either way, but this is easily among one of the strongest systems the Sox have ever had maybe the best. Now, may some of these top guys disappoint? perhaps.

They do, followed by Baltimore and Oakland.

So then is my prediction he gets over 60 million not BOLD? or is only between 50-60 not bold?

Before his extension Tyler Glasnow avg 1.25 WAR per year and got paid 28.5. Teams don't just look at stats on fangraphs and weight a certain number of years there's many other various factors will. Durability, potential, age, and of course every team has their own internal evaluations of guys. A team could see two 2.0 WAR pitchers completely different and might pay double for one. Pivetta misses bats, that usually gets a big premium in FA, it's the equivalent to HR on the hitting side. There are teams out there who probably look at Nick and see a guy who is a pitch or an adjustment away from being much better than what he's been. He's getting money, take that to the bank.

Wait and see. ADD: if I had to legit guess I'd say he's getting closer to 50, I firmly believe he's going to get a lot more than people think he is. I'm set on that, but this is a BOLD prediction thread. If anything.....that's not BOLD enough.

Another BOLD prediction. Pivetta will get over $60 million dollars.

Changing an approach and being going from a free swinger to a guy who takes walks is probably the hardest thing in sports. You have less than a second to make a decision, you're literally trying to re-wire your brain. One can hope he continues to develop elite contact skills and can maintain a decent average, occasional power, speed on the bases and elite defense. I think he will be good if he will do that but he's never going to be great. Which is why his extension really perplexed me.

ROKI is going to cost you team control for 6 years. He should have zero bearing on being able to go out and sign other guys. No reason to not sign him and Fried/Buehler.

That's fair, but if he takes his BB% up to something more reasonable like lets say.......4% I think he gets partial credit.

That's why he's not making bank, and that's why I won't him as the second starting pitching acquisition and not the primary one. That's interesting, admittedly I'm not too familiar with his injury. Did it take that long to recover? or did he have set backs? or ancillary injuries along the way?

Has a player ever increased his BB rate (full season to full season) 4 fold? I'm guessing very little if ever. But, it's certainly a BOLD take so I gotta respect it.

I think he does too. If he's the guy who showed up in the playoffs and he's succesfully recovered from TJ then he could be one of the best pitchers in baseball for the next several years. And he'll cost you a fraction of what Fried/Burnes will.

It's. I think that's what a career year might look like for him. Oddly enough Steamer projects him to have a 1.2 WAR next year. But they also project over 500 PA's for him and I don't see that happening.

"I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be?" .5 WAR I'll double down, teams just don't employ full time DH's. If a team rotates the DH and has 2 guys with over 300 at bats, is that on par with a team that platoons in RF? Also a team might remove a guy for a defensive replacement in RF, and other guys get at bats but that should never happen if you're a competent DH. Here's another factoid. 211 batters took swings as a RF, 338 at DH. There's only 30 teams. How can 338 guys DH for 30 teams if most teams are not employing a full time DH. I think with the position, guys settle in. If you're ONLY job is to hit, you're not playing the field then you're going to DH a lot. This is probably why a lot of teams end up with a DH who is getting 200-300 at bats, but they're not David Ortiz. Teams aren't out looking for stud starting DH's the same way they are for a RF or any position player for that matter. Honestly, Yoshida is a sunk cost. If he's hitting he can DH, if he's not he'll ride the bench more. He's been a decent hitter when healthy, if he can actually string together a healthy season with a half way decent stat line. Trading two years of his contract might be a lot easier than 3, especially if he's not coming back from injury next year. I just think he's practically immovable. I'm using BTV here and I know all our feelings on it but I'll continue regardless. They'd have to package up someone like Crawford to move all his money. NOW, with that a team is still going to have to pay Yoshidas $18 million now AND Crawfords arby years? so that rules out a small market team. And a larger market team is now going to have to make 40 man spots for both those guys. I just don't see that happening this offseason. It's not happening.

I've heard a lot of buzz about Walker Buehler. I've read that he's the profile that Andrew Bailey and Breslow absolutely love in a pitcher. While his 5.38 ERA doesn't exactly scream "I'm good sign me" he was recovering from TJ surgery, had a much better September and was absolute money in the NLCS and the World Series. He could be showing us he's returning to form of the guy he was in 2021 when he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. I wouldn't like it if that's the Sox only move, but if they signed him AND someone like Fried I think that would be a really exciting offseason. Your rotation next year could be Fried/Buehler/Houck/Bello/Crawford. That rotation could be really really good. https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/why-dodgers-32-million-world-series-hero-is-sneaky-good-fit-for-red-sox-jackson3#:~:text=And among the pitchers who,Sox in a recent article.

I agree, but I don't think adding one elite hitter to this team is going to be transformative. Not the same way that adding two elite pitchers would be. Keep in mind, any pitcher we trade for is going to want to get an extension, and you'd want to extend that guy, so if you're trading for a pitcher and signing Soto that's probably 60 million+ off your budget, that's is your budget pretty much. Rather, I'd like to add Fried/Scott and still have guys like Anthony/Mayer/Teel/Campbell in the system. I know there's more than one way to skid a cat, and a difference of opinion on this forum of whether to sign pitchers or trade for them, but I firmly believe all the stars are aligned to start spending the money on pitchers. That's the best way to not only improve the team but to do so in a way that can keep them competitive for years to come. With all that said, I think it's perfectly possible for the Sox to go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott and be in a position to stay within the luxury tax limit. They would probably have to go over for a year or two, but there used to be a time when the Sox were ok with that as long as they could reset in a year or two. I also get that fans have lost faith in ownerships commitment to doing so, and that's fair, we all have. But if there was ever a time to go put your foot on the gas.....it's now. IMHO.