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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    The defense isn't pretty, and the offense felt very fluky. He also fell off a cliff last year with a .696 OPS in the second half. Some say he was tired, perhaps the Sox get more value out of Connor Wong if he plays less paired up with another catcher who can share 40% of the catching duty. The underlying metrics aren't pretty, his statcast page is lit up blue reinforcing the luck with his bat. I happen to think that he could be better and look more like the guy we thought he was earlier in the year if he's paired up with a viable back up who can catch 60-70 games a year.
  2. Hugh2
    I can see a path forward where this is a really good trade for the Red Sox, or a very good trade for the White Sox, and possibly a horrible trade for us as well. No fair trade isn't going to look like that. Montgomery could turn into a perennial all star, with plus defense and monster power, Kyle Teel could turn into an all star catcher, both could happen and Crochet could never have a season as good as his 2024 and the Sox are going to look f***ing stupid for this trade. All prospects could bust. Garret Crochet also has the level of talent, where he could be the best pitcher in all of baseball. That's exciting. It's a risk, but so is everything else. I'm all about spreading around risk. You develop some guys and bring them up into the majors, you trade for some you proven MLB talent at other times, and SOMETIMES YOU ACTUALLY GO OUT IN FREE AGENCY AND PAY SOMEONE!!!!
  3. Hugh2
    FTR I've been very much in the "you can't trade Yoshida camp" but I would be willing to accept the hard cost of parting with him if they were spending the money to improve the big club roster.
  4. Hugh2
    The fact of the matter is if you're trading Yoshida, you either have to swallow all the money, swallow 2/3 of the money and get back a c level prospect in low A, or trade away all of the money and give up a high end prospects E.G. Arias/Bleis+++ to get him off the roster. If Yoshida has a healthy season, he goes into next year under contract for only 2 more years. He becomes 10X more tradeable. It's not like the dude can't hit, and he'd be a good bet to hit well if he could stay healthy. I'd try to get him right, get him some at bats and see if a better deal is to be had at the deadline or come 2025 offseason. At the same time, as much as it would hurt, I wouldn't be opposed to selling him with a prospect packaged up if they were making room for a big right handed bat in the lineup E.G. Bregman, Arenado, Santander etc. Especially if they were buying more pitching too. Losing someone like Bleis or Arias+ would be a sting, but the money would be there for both a RH bat and another #2 starter.
  5. Hugh2
    I’d be ok with something along those guidelines, I’d prefer to get more than just one year of team control. Perhaps an opt out after year 4. id also explore what extension he would be open to that included no opt out. Or perhaps a team option that vests if he is injured and has to have surgery and miss a year
  6. Hugh2
    Yeah, so that’s a 5 year contract, is what I meant. I was assuming you were counting his team control years and taking on 3, so that’s 5 not 6. i don’t think he will sign an extension only giving him one more year. Mine as well just go to FA. But who knows, maybe he will. That still allows him to get another big payday. I’d rather lock him up for a few more years.
  7. Hugh2
    I’m mixing up Crochet and Alcantara. I blame Notin
  8. Hugh2
    I didn’t concede an argument, only admitted it could have been worded differently. fact is the Red Sox do not shop at the top of the free agent market and haven’t for some time. those are the facts! And the facts are…..I won’t do that to you guys
  9. Hugh2
    I’d be wager (wink wink) it will either buy out his arb years and tack on two more OR it will have several more years, lower AAV but an opt out.
  10. Hugh2
    Yeah, I’ve made that same exact argument, that’s they’re not cheap, it was a lazy argument in my part. when it comes to playing at the top of the free agent market the Red Sox are cheap. what teams play in the deep end of the pool? Philly? Texas? LA? The NY teams? How have they fared in October since Henry decided to be a big baller in the kiddie pool?
  11. Hugh2
    Worked on me? It’s not a matter of my approval. They didn’t win anything, all I’m saying is I don’t believe in fake offers. That’s some conspiracy theory stuff
  12. Hugh2
    He’s under contract for 3 more years so a three year extension would be a 6 year deal. Certainly possible
  13. Hugh2
    PR is not, but he's not stupid, he's actually a rather good business man. I firmly believe he is NOT making disingenuous offers, I just believe he's cheap when it comes to premium baseball players.
  14. Hugh2
    That's stupid If John Henry was making fake bids and an agent caught on to it no agent would do business with him aga......OMG maybe this is why we can't sign anyone!!!!!
  15. Hugh2
    My guess is it's an extension like the Bogaerts extension. It's going to buy out his team controlled years and take on a few extra. It will be lower AAV than pitchers signing in this years free agent market but significantly more than what he's getting now. Maybe in the 25 million AAV range. He will probably have an opt out in there around year 5. This will allow him to get one more payday at age 30. That's my guess
  16. Hugh2
    My point was I'm not a gambler, and I thought the you said 100 chances at winning 50 million? tickets cost $2 each. That's $200. I'd assume with those prices each individual chance at winning is significantly lower than 1% again....I don't gamble and I'm confused now.
  17. Hugh2
    And yet you still need them, because prospects turn into MLB players. You can't have a 26 man roster you traded for or all FA. Even teams like LA, they're augmented by homegrown talent. Also, the hit rate for BA top 25 looks a lot better the past 20 years than it did in the early 2000's and prior. Scouting methodology has got better, much better, it will NEVER be perfect because no one can predict the future. But I think a prospect ranked #25 today is more valuable than a guy ranked #25 20 years ago.
  18. Hugh2
    Well, I don't gamble so....I'd take my $200 and put it in the bank. But my point was, I don't think Crochet was traded for because they plan on not resigning him. I think there will be an extension.
  19. Hugh2
    If everyone thought they couldn't outbid the Mets, why would the Mets even offer 765? When they easily could have bid less? Eventually the bidding would come down to a point to where other teams would jump in. This is generally how bidding works, and like you said, I'd prefer they bid than not bid at all.
  20. Hugh2
    I think I would need to know the odds of every chance to win 50 million dollars. A loto ticket can have a 33% chance of paying something out, or a .01% chance. Just like a top 25 prospect in all of baseball probably has a much better shot at returning MLB value than a guy who doens't rank does.
  21. Hugh2
    It doesn't matter whether I think they could, or they thought they could. I don't believe people make offers they're not prepared to have the other side accept. Actually, I'd be willing to be rather heavily on that, that's just not how business is conducted.
  22. Hugh2
    I don't really believe this at all. Saying 3 $250 million dollar players is the same as Soto is just lazy. Also, that 700 would have been spread out over 15 years. You're not signing other guys to 15 year deals or signing them in their 20's but rather their 30's. The AAV is around 46 AAV is really like going out and signing 2 guys to 7 year 163 million dollar deals. That would be more par for the course, but I don't think people would view two 163 million dollar men the same.
  23. Hugh2
    Two thoughts on a few things being said on this board that just seem flat out wrong to me. A.) THE RED SOX $700 MILLION DOLLAR SOTO OFFER WAS A SHAME - I'm almost entirely certain that is just non-sense. If the Sox legit operated like that people wouldn't do business like that. There's a language to business, and I'd like to think I speak it well. There's certain things that just don't happen. Consider this hypothetical conversation. Breslow "Hi Scott, it's Craig, we've come up on our offer and we are now sitting at 15 years $700 million" Boras "Hi Craig, so I've talked it over with Soto, and we really like it in Boston, the Mets offered more but we believe in your future and we were looking for at least $700 million. Juan is very exceited" Breslow "ohhhhhhh, well.......this is actually akward. Ummmm, you see I don't actually have the money. You see this was just a shame offer to make us look good to the fans.....year we're backing out" I'm sorry but the above ^^^^^ that s*** doesn't happen. B.) The Red Sox traded for Crochet because they will not spend $ on pitchers I actually disagree with this one as well. I think it all comes back to age. There's a reason they were in on Soto, there's a reason why they let Bogey walked and signed Devers and it's the same reason they traded for Crochet. They want to pay younger guys, they want to pay for a guys prime and not his 30's as much as they can. It's been widely speculated that Crochet would seek to extend with any team that signs him. I don't think it's a slam dunk.....but I would expect an extension before opening day.
  24. Hugh2
    I hear you, can’t argue against that, thanks for clarifying. I’ve taken the John Henry math route myself at times
  25. Hugh2
    There's risk on both sides, sure, you won't have a guy break down on you or give you junk like David Price. You will also never have guys like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer either. Good pitchers tend to find a way to stay good in their 30's. Yes some guys break down, but most either remain very good, or if healthy at least valuable. You gotta swing somewhere. I have ZERO interest in emptying the farm to go on a run for a few years. I'd rather see them spend the money. Because guess what? if they're unwilling to spend the money now, that means they're unwilling to spend the money in a few years. Which means this team is doomed to repeat it's past mistakes. I'm talking trading away Duran/Casas/Roman Anthony/Campbell. At some point in three years from now when they're going to have start paying these guys and the payroll is inflated they will start shedding payroll again. And their window will be closed.....because that's who they are. The team who doesn't spend, doesn't swing, doesnt' take chances. That team had 3 last place finished the last 1/2 a decade. I'm very un interested in that philosophy. And just trading guys without taking at least ONE big FA swing makes me believe they have not changed their tune.
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